Wednesday polls: Strong day for Obama who leads big in PA, OH, WI and ME and within the margin of error in VA and FL

Quinnipiac released its eagerly anticipated set of swing state polls, and after two weak showing by Obama in the waves of early April and mid-May, he has improved significantly over the past month by solidifying the support of registered Democrats. Though his lead in all three of these states is inferior to where Clinton stood last month, it still represents a significant shift towards the Illinois Senator:

• In Florida, Obama is ahead 47% to 43%. He trailed by 4% in May.
  
• A month ago, he trailed among independents and got 71% of the Democratic vote. In June, he leads indies by 10% and has the support of 82% of Democrats. 19% of those who voted Clinton in the primary would choose McCain, however.

• In Ohio, Obama leads 48% to 42% -- no doubt boosted by Bush's dismal approval rating of 22%! He trailed by 4% in May.
  
• He has improved his share of the registered Dem vote from 69% to 80% and trails by 3% among independents. Among Clinton voters, however, he only leads 63% to 25%.
  

• In Pennsylvania, finally, Obama crushes McCain 52% to 40%. He led by 6% in May.
  
• Obama gets 78% of registered Democrats compared to 71% in May. He leads by 11% among independents, though his support among Clinton voters remains tepid (66% versus 24% for McCain).
  

This seems to be the first Florida poll to ever find Obama ahead of McCain, too early, then, to know whether something is actually changing (this is also the first Florida poll released by any institute since Quinnipiac's last poll a month ago!). But note the uniformity of the bounce in Obama's favor: He has improved by 6%, 6% and 8% in these three states, suggesting about the same size bounce that we witnessed in Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking. The margin has narrowed again in those trackings and that we will have to wait for confirmation that Obama has jumped up in those states from other surveys (PPP yesterday showed Obama up 11% in Ohio). Also, black support in favor of Obama is particularly strong and is what is helping the Democrat create some space: He gets between 90% and 95% of the African-American vote, much stronger than what Kerry got in 2004.

As Quinnipiac points out, no candidate has won the election without at least two of these three states in 48 years, so for Obama to get even two would make the road to the White House very difficult for McCain. However, Michigan now appears to be just as competitive as these 3 states and muddies the equation a bit, as picking up Michigan could help McCain offset the loss of Ohio. Meanwhile, a number of other polls were released today from other crucial states that Obama seems intent on contesting:

• First, Zogby's latest national poll shows the Democrat leading 47% to 42%. Other good news for Obama: he leads by 22% among independents. The bad news: He is only ahead 54% to 44% among Hispanics and 54% of respondents say he does not have the experience to be president.

• In Virginia, PPP finds Obama edging out McCain 47% to 45%. He gets 78% of Democrats -- a strong showing in a Southern state.

• In Wisconsin, SUSA finds Obama ahead 52% to 43% -- up from a 6% lead in May. This includes the support of 91% of registered Democrats (!) and a 23% lead among women.
  
• SUSA also continues to provide completely useless VP pairings: Which poll respondents has ever heard of Carly Fiorina?

• In Maine, Obama crushes McCain 55% to 33%, up from a 13% lead last month in a new Rasmussen poll. There's no breakdown by congressional district but with this sort of lead there is no doubt Obama is ahead in both.

• In Alaska, finally, Rasmussen continues to find competitive races, with McCain ahead 45% to 41%, down from a 9% lead last month.
• McCain and Obama have comparable favorability ratings (58% to 53% rspectively) but the enthusiasm level really varies, both among very favorable opinions (29% Obama and 18% McCain) and very unfavorable (31% Obama). This is a pattern we are seeing in many red states.
  

Wisconsin's lead confirms other polls we have been seeing and my hypothesis that the "Dukakis 5" states are coming home, slowly removing 5 blue states from the list McCain can contest. The Alaska poll is stunning, of course, though it is unclear how much the campaigns will look in that direction (it is rather far, after all).

And I have resolved to no longer express wonder and amazement when a Virginia poll shows a tie or Obama narrowly ahead, as every poll recently released from the Commonwealth shows that result -- including one released early this week. That the state's 13 electoral votes are in play are a nightmare for McCain as they expand the map in a region the GOP has long not had to defend. With Mark Warner set to destroy Jim Gilmore, there could even be reverse coattails -- as the PPP poll confirms:

• This Senate race is no doubt polled so much because Virginia is competitive at the presidential level, but we are still waiting for Colorado to be polled this much. PPP finds Warner crushing 59% to 28% and the worst news for Gilmore is that no one is surprised...
  

• In more interesting Senate news, Susan Collins continues to slip in Maine. The latest Rasmussen poll finds her ahead 49% to 42% -- under 50% and within single-digits for the first time. Last month's poll, finding her ahead by 10%, was already the tightest the race has ever been.
  
• Proving that Collins is in a Chaffee-esque situation of being driven down by her party rather than by her own liabilities, she has a shockingly high 70% favorability rating.
  

• In North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole rebounds in a new Civitas poll: Barely ahead 45% to 43% last month, she is now leading 48% to 38%.
  

• In another congressional poll from that state, this one from NC-08, Larry Kissell is narrowly ahead of Rep. Hayes 45% to 43% in an internal poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt.
• This is a district that voted Bush twice (including by 9% in 2004) but Obama leads McCain 50% to 37% (should we take that as a sign that the poll oversamples dems? A 23% swing from where we were 4 years ago is perhaps a bit much).
  

Maine has long been a disappointment to Dems, as Collins has been ahead by more than 20% in many polls taken since the fall of 2007. But as partisan passions heat up in the coming months it looks like Collins could get dangerously close to being this cycle's Linc Chaffee and suffer from her party's dismal ratings. As Al Franken's situation is worsening in MN, the DSCC would be delighted to get Maine back in the picture. As for NC, Dole is still under 50% in the Civitas poll but this is the second pollster (after Rasmussen) among those that had shown a tied race in May (after Hagan's primary victory) to find that Dole has rebounded. There are clear reasons for that, too: (1) Hagan's primary bounce faded and (2) Dole has been running TV ads over the past few weeks. Still within striking distance for Democrats but no reason to be as euphoric as the DSCC was last month.

Monday polls: Virginia is indeed a toss-up, and is it worth looking at Kansas?

It is one thing for David Ploufe to insist that the campaign does not need to win Ohio and Florida to get to the White House, it is quite another for pollsters to impose a seeming blackout on polls from these two mega-battleground states. No survey from either has been released since mid-May and in the meantime we got plenty of polls from states like Washington and just today two from New York. A new survey from Virginia released today keeps things interesting:

• Rasmussen finds that the presidential race in this traditional red state is a toss-up, with Obama edging McCain 45% to 44%. This is a small swing from last month's survey, in which McCain led by 3%.
• While McCain's favorability rating is a bit higher, Obama has a higher proportion of respondents who say they have a very favorable impression of him. However, the familiar pattern of Obama's very unfavorable rating also being much higher holds in this poll.

• In New York, two polls confirm the Democrat's overwhelming advantage. The Sienna poll has Obama leading 51% to 33%. He led by 11% last month and 5% two months ago.
• The New York Times poll, meanwhile, has Obama leading 51% to 32%.

• In Kansas, finally, Rasmussen finds McCain ahead 47% to 37%, down from a 21% lead last month.
• Obama has a mediocre favorability rating, however (49% versus 62% for McCain) and very low very unfavorables (31% versus 12% for McCain).
  

Of these polls, the Virginia survey is naturally the most interesting. While I did not hesitate to include it in the list of toss-ups in my first electoral college ratings, it is always somewhat of a shock when Obama performs so well in a poll from the Commonwealth. This is, after all, a state that has not voted for a Democrat since 1964. Yet, Rasmussen's poll is certainly not a surprise. The latest SUSA poll showed Obama leading by 8% three weeks ago and Obama has made no secret that flipping it will be one of his priorities, so far so that there are 3 potential VP picks that come from the state (Webb, Kaine and Warner). He even organized his first general election campaign stop in Virginia. There is no question that McCain losing this state would make it very hard for him to get to 270 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot polls found some interesting results as well:

• In Virginia, Mark Warner is widening his lead over Jim Gilmore and is now ahead 60% to 33% in Rasmussen's poll! Warner has a 70% favorability rating compared to 46% for Gilmore... and don't forget this is a GOP-held seat!

• Dems get more good news in Louisiana, where Mary Landrieu is up 49% to 33% in a new poll. However -- and this is a big one -- this is an internal poll conducted for and released by the Landrieu campaign. But until Kennedy responds with his own poll (and he did release an internal showing him ahead in December), this is positive for Landrieu.

• In Kansas, meanwhile, Pat Roberts continues to post surprisingly low numbers for an incumbent that no one is really paying attention to. After 3 polls from 3 different polling groups showing him up 12% against former Rep. Slattery, Rasmussen's latest survey finds the incumbent under 50% and in single-digits, leading 47% to 38%.
• Roberts's favorability rating remains high, however, at 60%.

• In Nevada, Mason-Dixon polled two House races (both currently held by Republicans) and found good news for both parties. In NV-01, Rep. Porter and Dina Titus in a toss-up with the incumbent up 45% to 42%. Porter's job approval is a dismal 36% to 56%. Note that Titus ran a statewide gubernatorial race in 2006, so she is better-known than your average House challenger.
  
• In NV-02, Rep. Dean Heller has a much strong lead against Democrat Jill Derby in a rematch of their 2006 race. Heller is up 53% to 39%.

• In TX-10, a poll taken for the Democratic challenger in a race few people have on their radar screen (and which I confess I have not included in my latest House ratings) shows the incumbent Mike McCaul leading Democrat Larry Doherty 43% to 34%.
  
• As SSP points out, an independent poll from IRV that I managed to miss just last week has Doherty trailing by only 6%, 52% to 46%. Doherty's decision to release a poll today that shows him faring a bit worse is no doubt due to his desire to prove that the IRV survey was not an outlier and that TX-10 is indeed competitive.
  

• Finally, a poll from New York's gubernatorial race of... 2010, which will interest everyone given how chaotic the state political scene has been lately. This is also important because whether Mike Bloomberg decides he should run will determine whether he tries to change the term limits law in NYC in the coming months. The Sienna poll referred to above has Bloomberg ahead 45% to 34% in a match-up against recently promoted Governor Paterson (who is not that much ahead of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary).

The Kansas Senate race is too me the most interesting poll of this group because it confirms -- and accentuates -- the results of three polls that have been released in close proximity (here, here and here). Looking at the latest Rasmussen polls of the second and third-tier of Senate races, Roberts now looks weaker than Dole and Cornyn and he has repeatedly polled lower than Sen. Collins ever has in Maine (well there was one poll showing her leading by only 10%)! Even Chuck Schumer, when trying to tout his attempts to expand the map, refers to Oklahoma more readily than Kansas. So at one point does the DSCC start looking in Kansas's direction? Given Schumer's determination to test the vulnerability of incumbents, it would not be a surprise if the DSCC conducts a poll and sends in a few staffers.

VP watch: Jindal's exorcism problem and (more-or-less credible) Democratic denials

Bobby Jindal's inclusion on the exclusive list of guests to McCain's ranch way back when Hillary Clinton was still a candidate caught many by surprise. While the recently elected Louisiana Governor was long mentioned as a possible contender for the vice-presidential nomination, he was perceived as an unlikely pick. But McCain needs youth on the ticket and Jindal's name has remained in the mix. Today, former Speaker Newt Gingrich endorsed Jindal on CBS's Face the Nation, declaring that "Jindal would be far and away the best candidate for vice president in the country." Gingrich's blessing points to one of Jindal's main advantages: he has a very conservative profile, particularly when it comes to social issues. A very religious politician, Jindal could help McCain connect with the part of his base that is still proving the most reluctant to enthusiastically line up against him.

Yet, social conservatism is also one of the main drawbacks of a Jindal pick, as there is only so far Republicans can push religious discourse within the political sphere. To contest in places like Pennsylvania's suburbs, the GOP needs to remain somewhat mainstream on social issues and Jindal might prove a distraction on the trail, forcing McCain to talk about religion and social issues much more than he is comfortable doing. I am not just talking about things like Jindal's strong endorsement for teaching intelligent design in the classroom (a position he articulated this morning on CBS) but more... unusual stories like Jindal's attempt to perform an exorcism.

Jindal himself wrote an essay about this in 1994 in the New Oxford Review, a Catholic publication. Jindal explains how he performed a successful exorcism and rid the body of a friend of a demon that possessed her. TPM notes that Jindal seems to have been entirely serious and provides lengthy excerpts of this stunning piece of writing (purchase is required on the website of the Oxford Review). Note that, beyond the sections about exorcism and removing Satan from the body of this poor woman, the essay also proposes a very traditionalist account of man-woman relations, as Jindal describes himself as willing to stay away from a female friend as it would not be fitting for them to be friends without a "deeper commitment."

Does this level of religious zeal and the willingness to discuss it publicly hurt Jindal's chances to be slected on the Republican ticket? And while devout Catholics take offense at the fact that exorcism is strictly forbidden by the Catholic Church?

Meanwhile, the Democratic veepstakes are being shaped by those who are taking themselves out of the running. While any potential running-make is expected to insist that the vice-presidential nomination is the farthest thing from his or her mind, there is only so far they dare take their public denials. Last week, Ted Strickland ruled out joining the ticket in strong enough terms that observers had to take him seriously.

This week-end it was the turn of Mark Warner to issue strong enough declarations to prompt the AP to headline its piece "Warner takes self out of VP mix." Speaking in front of the Virginia Democratic convention, Warner, who is now running for Senate but about whom speculation had dramatically picked up mid-May, told delegates that "Today, in front of this convention, I wanted to make it clear what I am focused on." He also said that, "I have not sought and I will not accept any other opportunity." Given that vice-presidential contenders are probably submitting their vetting documents to the campaigns just about now, this would be a deliberate lie on Warner's part -- much more than the usual half-hearted denial -- suggesting that the former Governor is really out of the veepstakes. This, of course, is a huge relief to the DSCC and Senate Democrats.

John Edwards, however, took the opposite route, walking back from very strong-worded denials that seemed to assure he would not be willing to embark on a repeat of his 2004 experience to tell George Stephanopoulos today that "I'd take anything he asked me to think about seriously." He did add that "obviously this is something I've done and it's not a job that I'm seeking" but such weakly-phrased assurances of disinterest we are used to, and they don't sound like they are sure of anything at all.

Finally, former Senator Sam Nunn continues to fuel speculation and his friends are sure doing nothing to suggest that he would not take it. The Boston Globe runs an article today explaining why Nunn might be a good pick and relying on members of Nunn's entourage who are "surprised" that "he seems more prepared to accept a vice presidential offer this year." Given that his name has been mentioned every four years since the late 1980s and that it's hard to imagine that Nunn would have rejected any prior pick, anyone else think Nunn is actively pushing to be chosen? In case there are any doubts, remember this.

Most recent VP developments:

• Heading out of the veepstakes: Colin Powell and Chris Dodd
• VP watch: Strickland, Jones spark weird storylines as Obama's vetter resigns
• VP watch: Nunn backtracks on gay rights, Webb campaigns with Obama, Clinton steps back
• All coverage for Democrats and Republicans
  

Senate: NRSC's move towards giving up VA and NM, plus a variety of polls

Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, has been setting a lot of expectations lately. After declaring that his goal for the year was to prevent the Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof majority (and thus limit the loss to eight seats), Ensign has now shifted to a wiser refrain: It will be good news, he explained, if the GOP only loses three seats in November. But at this same lunch with reporters, Ensign made some news by taking the first step towards giving up on Virginia and New Mexico. "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win," he said.

An NRSC decision that a race should no longer merits investments would go a long way towards sealing a seat's fate, for both Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore will need the help of the national party to keep up with the momentum that is carrying their Democratic opponents. In 2006, the NRSC's decision to pull out of Ohio effectively handed the election to Sharrod Brown who coasted to an unexpectedly easy victory over the incumbent Republican.

Another interesting tidbit in Ensign's comments is his list of the 10 most competitive races. Ensign includes North Carolina and Maine and does not even make a stab at spin by putting in New Jersey (though Collins is polling better than Lautenberg at this point). Yet, there is no sign of Mississippi! Despite the fact that (1) Ronnie Musgrove has been leading Senator Wicker in a number of polls, (2) despite predictions of increased black turnout, (3) despite the fact that party affiliations will not be printed on the ballot and (4) despite Travis Childers's victory in MS-01 last month, Mississippi continues to be treated as a long shot by most analysts. This attitude is indeed not exclusive to Ensign. Even Chuck Schumer rated MS a third-tier race in a recent interview. What more does Musgrove need to do to prove that this Southern special election is among the hottest races of the country?

Meanwhile, 5 new Senate polls were released in the past two days, only two of which concern competitive races. Here are these polls, in the order in which the contests are ordered in my latest Senate rankings:

• In Minnesota, Norm Coleman edges out Al Franken 48% to 45%, a similar margin than his 2% lead last month.
• Rasmussen also polled a three way match-up including former Governor Jesse Ventura. Coleman leads 39% to 32% to Franken and 24% to Ventura, who (as is expected) takes votes from the challenger.

• In Oregon, Jeff Merkley got no bounce from his primary victory as he now trails incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith 47% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Last month, Smith was ahead by 3% -- though Democrats ought to be satisfied that they are keeping Smith under 50%.

• In Kansas, Cooper & Secrest Associates released a poll of the Senate race that is the third consecutive survey showing Pat Roberts leading his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Slattery, by 12% and the first one in which he dips under the 50% mark, leading 48% to 36%.

• In Iowa, Senator Harkin is leading challenger Christopher Reed 53% to 37% and posting a favorability rating of 59% in a new Rasmussen survey.
  

• In Michigan, finally, no surprises in the latest Rasmussen poll that has Senator Carl Levin leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 55% to 30%. Hoogendyk is largely unknown but Levin has a strong favorability rating, making him an unlikely target.
  

Of these 5 races, Minnesota and Oregon are the two interesting ones. Despite the repeated polls showing some potential for Slattery and despite the GOP's (thwarted) determination early this cycle to field a credible challenger to Harkin, these two races have a long way to go before joining the list of competitive races, though the DSCC might hope that Kansas Democrats will be more enthused than usual if Governor Sebelius is tapped on Obama's ticket.

In Minnesota, despite the media firestorm that has recently been surrounding Al Franken years as a comedian and the unexpected difficulties that popped up on his way to the DFL's endorsement, the Democratic challenger is holding strong, suggesting that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent and on the Republican Party. With Minnesota showing signs of moving back to its solidly Democratic roots, Coleman will remain endangered and he should worry if he could not open up a bigger margin after such a favorable month of press coverage. As for the Jesse Ventura question, the former Governor has declared that he will make up his mind at the last minute. The filing deadline is mid-July so we will have to wait a few more weeks to see whether Ventura will wreak havoc in this senatorial race.

Senate: Gilmore nearly loses GOP nod, Landrieu in tight race

It is never a good sign when a presumptive nominee wins his party's nod with 50.3% of the vote, but that is what happened to Virginia's Jim Gilmore. The state's former Governor, who is already a heavy underdog in his quest to retain the seat against Democrat Mark Warner, had declared his candidacy in the fall and his backers had pushed the state GOP to announce that it would pick its Senate nominee in a convention rather than a primary. This was a way to insure that Gilmore, a conservative Republican, would be favored against Rep. Tom Davis, a more moderate politician representing Northern Virginia. Davis, who until then was considered the favorite to represent the GOP in the general election, would have had an easier time in a primary than at a convention packed with conservatives, and he indeed withdrew from the race soon after the state GOP dealt him this powerful blow.

But at the state convention this week-end, Gilmore's strategy stunningly turned against him, as delegates, who were mostly conservative activists, turned to a Republican even more conservative than Gilmore, Bob Marshall from the Virginia General Assembly. Marshall, who prided himself with having spent less than a tenth of what Gilmore had spent, came within 80 votes of 3,500 convention votes cast. In other words, Gilmore becomes the party's nominee with 50.3% of the vote.

With an unenergized conservative base and a moderate wing that will likely migrate to Mark Warner, especially since Tom Davis will not be on the ballot, the Virginia GOP is heading towards a rough Senate election. They better hope that the cross-over Senate votes do not translate into the presidential race, for Warner could have some coattails in one of the Obama campaign's top target states. Note, however, that increasing talk of Obama picking Warner as his running mate could be a nightmare for Virginia Democrats, who would be deprived of their candidate, and a huge gift to Jim Gilmore.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two new Senate polls:

• In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu is barely ahead of John Kennedy, 47% to 44%. This is Rasmussen's first poll from the state and he finds both candidates with strong favorability ratings.

• In Massachusetts, John Kerry has no trouble dispatching his challengers, posting 63% against both Jeff Beaty and Jim Ogonowski. Note that Ogonowski, who national Republicans were very excited about, failed to qualify for the ballot last week.

The Louisiana numbers are particularly interesting for they follow a series of surveys that had found Landrieu ahead by double-digits. Any incumbent polling under 50% is naturally in trouble, and the fact that Landrieu is barely ahead with a favorability rating of 59% testifies to the state's increasingly Republican lean. This is the GOP's only Senate pick-up opportunity this cycle, so the NRSC will make sure to play big, which is why I had left the race at the sixth spot of my recent Senate rankings. This poll confirms that the race will not be easy for Democrats.

VP talk picks up: Warner and Bloomberg are latest target of speculation

Vice-presidential rumors have been in the air for months, but they have been picking up this past week, as both candidates step up their vice-presidential committees, conduct interviews or just start assembling files on potential running mates.

Obama is at a much earlier stage of the process than McCain is, though it is certainly possible to draw a comprehensive list of names are are being considered, though the Hillary question still looms large. Today, Robert Novak's column mentioning the possibility of Mark Warner being selected launched a round of speculation about the chances of the former Virginia Governor who once seemed like a sure presidential candidate. Novak wrote that, "Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, a strong favorite to be elected to the Senate this year, has told associates that he is being considered as Barack Obama's vice presidential running mate."

Warner is now running for Virginia's open Senate seat, and he is the overwhelming favorite to win that race (this seat has been ranked the most vulnerable Senate seat for months now). Warner's involvement in the senatorial race was supposed to take him out of vice-presidential chatter. After all, when Warner accepted the candidacy, his name was already circulating as a possible VP pick so he was aware of that possibility, making his choice somewhat of a renunciation of the vice-presidency. After all, if Warner were to drop out of the Senate race right now, it would transform the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity into an at best uncertain endeavor.

This would suggest that the Obama campaign would not dare to consider Warner's candidacy, but if they decide that Warner is what they need on the ticket to carry Virginia, they probably will not have much scruples in undermining the DSCC. Nor will Warner automatically reject an offer that would put him on the path to the presidency in 2012 or 2016. And as if to confirm that Warner's name is truly in consideration, Politico 's article today on the "Virginia trio" (Kaine, Webb and Warner) argues that Warner would be the strongest of the Virginia candidates, and the one that would help Obama carry the state the most. So 13 electoral votes or a Senate seat?

Meanwhile, New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg continues to entertain the most confusion three months after announcing he would not attempt a presidential run. Since then, Bloomberg has been attempting to please all sides, introducing both Obama and McCain at events a few weeks from one another. Despite the fact that there has been more speculation as to the possibility that Obama might tap Bloomberg as his running mate, since the two would reinforce each other's postpartisan message and as there had been reports of talks between Bloomberg's entourage and Obama's, it is the McCain-Bloomberg ticket that currently has the most buzz. The two had breakfast on May 17th, and NYMag is quite certain that they talked about vice-presidential prospects. Marc Ambinder confirms the seriousness of these talks.

McCain selecting Bloomberg has quite obvious drawbacks and advantages. For one, it would seriously undercut Obama's core message of reform and post-partisanship if the politician with the most post-partisan positioning were to rally his rival; McCain would also strengthen his own independent image. Second, it would give McCain much more credibility on the economy, an issue on which McCain has difficulties. Third, Bloomberg has money, lots of it -- and the GOP needs as much as it can get this year. But it could also create problems to have someone as moderate as Bloomberg on the ticket when many conservatives already distrust the Arizona Senator. After all, electing someone to the vice-presidency gives them a heads-up for the next race to the White House. He would also not improve McCain's numbers in any particular state. Finally, Bloomberg is not the most charismatic politician -- to say the least -- and he would not certainly not be an effective attack dog, in what is usually a VP's most urgent role.

Southern polls: North Carolina and Virginia will be battlegrounds

The West Virginia primary feels very much like Mississippi's on March 11th. It comes the week after a major Election Day and there is no suspense, hardly even on the margin of victory. 24 hours from polls opening, a new poll from WV combined to a poll from Kentucky (which votes next Tuesday) confirms how difficult the Appalachians region is for Obama and how disastrous those two states' results could be:

• In West Virginia, Suffolk University shows Clinton leading 60% to 24% for Obama. That's 71% of the two-person vote, more than what Clinton got in Arkansas.
• While Clinton has a favorability rating of 70%, only 44% of Democrats have a favorable impression of him.
  

• In Kentucky, Research 2000 finds a slightly 'smaller' Clinton lead, 58% to 31%.

• Update: SUSA has released a new poll from Kentucky as well, finding Clinton ahead 62% to 30%, a 2:1 margin which is actually a 2% progression for Obama! In Eastern Kentucky, the Appalachian region bordering West Virginia, Clinton gets 84%! Could Obama fail to reach the viability level in a district?
  

Those numbers might seem excessive but they are certainly realistic. Not only are they confirmed by other polls but they also conform to what we have been seeing in districts surrounding West Virginia in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and in which Clinton routinely got 70%. Of the 5 counties of Ohio that border West Virginia, Clinton crossed 70% in 4 of them and got more than 77% in 3.

Obama's difficulty in winning these regions -- whether linked to racism or whether due to the primary's class-divide, with blue-collar voters dominating these regions being Clinton's base -- probably make West Virginia and Kentucky lost causes in the general election: With only 44% of Democrats having a favorable impression of him in WV, Obama has no path to a majority. That's not a concern in Kentucky but Democrats might have been looking to put West Virginia in play, as it had long been a blue state before increasingly turning red starting in 2000.

Note, however, that a series of polls taken this fall had Clinton and Edwards looking stunningly competitive in Kentucky, often leading Republicans, while Obama struggled (for example this one). As I have noted many times, both Democrats have regions of the country in which they would be clearly stronger than the other, and this is one Obama is weaker in. The Research 2000 poll referenced above also included some general election numbers with Clinton struggling but performing 13 percent better than Obama in Kentucky:

• McCain leads Clinton 53% to 41% and leads Obama 58% to 33%. Bush beat Kerry 60% to 40% in 2004.
  

Meanwhile, three new polls today show that Democrats would be very competitive in Virginia and in North Carolina, two states the GOP has not thought about in recent elections but which it could now have a lot of trouble defending:

• In Virginia, Rasmussen finds McCain leading Obama 47% to 44% and Clinton 47% to 41%. That's a great improvement for Dems since the end of March where their numbers had fallen to trailing by double-digits.
  
• Obama's favorability rating (51%) is lower than McCain's but he has more viewing him "very favorably".

• In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds similar results, with McCain leading both Democrats by 3 percent, 47% to 44% against Obama and 43% to 40% against Clinton. That's an improvement for Clinton but actually a slight drop for Obama who was tied with McCain in the last poll.
  

• Finally, Public Policy Polling released a poll from North Carolina as well, confirming that hte race is competitive without being quite as positive for Democrats than Rasmussen: McCain leads Obama 49% to 42% while Clinton trails 46% to 38%.

Virginia has been expected to be a swing state given the state's rapidly changing demographics and the Democrats' statewide success in recent years (Kaine, Webb). North Carolina is more of a surprise, after Democrats failed to put it in play in 2004 despite picking Edwards as their vice-presidential candidate. There is no question that forcing the GOP to defend both would be a great victory for Obama, but we should soon move beyond surprise that the state is competitive and start giving McCain credit for still being ahead. After all, Virginia and Colorado are two states who think of as red that the Obama campaign puts at the top of its priorities.

Two Senate surveys came with the polls listed above and they both bring good news for Democrats:

• Rasmussen confirms that Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up Virginia's senate seat, as he leads Jim Gilmore 55% to 37%. 37% have a very favorable impression of Warner, and 29% have a somewhat favorable one (Gilmore's numbers are 15-33). It's hard to beat those numbers.

• More interestingly, PPP released numbers from the North Carolina Senate race. They find Elizabeth Dole leading 48% to 43% against Democrat Kay Hagan.

PPP's numbers are better for Dole than Rasmussen's shocking survey last week finding Hagan leading by 1%. But every poll that shows Dole this vulnerable is still a surprise. Hagan is considered a second-tier candidate at best, and few signs pointed to Democrats making it this tight this quickly with this little effort. Given that NC is (was?) about 10th on the Democrats' priority list, they will certainly take any poll that shows Dole under 50% and leading by single-digits.

Senate diary: Series of polls brings good news to both parties

New Jersey's Senate race is monopolizing the attention right now, but a number of polls released over the past few days give him some pointers about the situation in other states, the first of which comes to us from Rasmussen:

• In the battle of former Virginia governors, Democrat Mark Warner leads his opponent Jim Gilmore 55% to 39%.

This is actually a decent showing for the Republican given how much Warner is favored in this race, and that a poll in which Gilmore is led 65-21 among unaffiliated voters can be described as good news says a lot about his chances.

Meanwhile, the GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates conducted polls in three states for a business coalition (Coalition for a Democratic Workplace). These polls were taken early in March, so it has been a while. But since news is slow yet in congressional races these polls are still useful. Take these numbers with the usual necessary grain of salt since they come from a partisan pollster, and here are the results from three major Senate races:

• In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken 46% to 40%.

• In Maine, Senator Susan Collins leads Democrat Allen 54% to 31%.

• In Colorado, finally, Democrat Mark Udall is ahead in a Republican-held seat, beating Bob Schaffer 44% to 32%.
  

The first two polls confirm nearly everything we have seen already. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman is clearly endangered as he comes in under 50% in nearly all polls; the lead he posts in this survey is more worrisome than reassuring for an incumbent this far out from Election Day. But Coleman is clearly far from being in a desperate position and does not share the indignity of his colleague Sununu (from NH) who trails his challenger by double-digits in all polls. This race will remain a toss-up to the end.

In Maine, however, Democrats have still not been able to put the seat in play. This is actually the first poll from Maine since last November but Collins also posted such large leads then. This race was touted as one of the most competitive of the cycle a few months ago but Allen has to find a way to make Collins vulnerable because she is starting off looking strong.

Finally, the Colorado numbers are interesting since it is the first poll I know of that shows a candidate up double-digit. The conventional wisdom had long held that Udall would start off favored in this open seat but poll after poll showed the race to be a toss-up. In 2006, Democrat Ritter suddenly distanced his Republican adversary in the open gubernatorial race, and the DSCC would love for Udall to do the same here, though one poll is obviously far from enough to conclude anything of the sort.

One last note in this down-the-ballot polling diary, albeit one that odes not concern a senatorial race: Rasmussen released a poll from the Washington Governor's race and finds a toss-up, with Democratic incumbent Christine Gregoire leading Republican Dino Rossi 47% to 46%. I am fully expecting this race to remain just as tight all the way to November, though I give the incumbent the slightest of edges in my latest gubernatorial rankings.

Movement in House races: An indictment, a withdrawal and an un-retirement

There has been a lot of movement today in House races, with 3 Republicans making news. The most important came from AZ-01, as Rep. Renzi was indicted on 36 charges of corruption, including conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering, extortion and insurance fraud (more detail on the charges here). Renzi had been under investigation for many months now, and had already announced that he would not run for re-election next year, so this does not change that consideration.

But Renzi's indictments now opens up the possibility that the congressman might retire, creating a special election and an opportunity for Democrats to go after the seat months before the general. House Minority leader Boehner is already pressuring Renzi to resign, as the last thing the GOP wants right now is to be facing an ethics problem again. Considering the turnout difference in the past few months, Democrats have to be given an edge in such a special election. AZ-01 is a competitive seat that Democrats were already very excited to compete in, and it was at the top of their priorities list. The only Republican that the NRCC has been able to recruit for now is Syney Hay, who lost a primary to Renzi in 2002. No word for now as to whether Renzi is likely to follow suit, but we will obviously keep an eye on this seat.

Meanwhile, also in Arizona, Rep. Shadegg decided to... un-retire in AZ-03. He had announced last week that he would step down next year, in a very unexpected move. But many of his colleagues rallied to convince him to stay -- Shadegg was considered the conservative movement's candidate for Minority Leader last year -- and Shadegg has obliged: "When the conservative movement asks you to stick around, that's a pretty tough request to turn down."

I had written last week that, "This retirement is thus not important because it creates another competitive open seat... but because it says a lot about the state of disarray of House Republicans." So in that sense Shadegg changing his mind does not represent a huge loss for Democrats. This is a district that Bush won with 57%, after all, not necessarily the most friendly territory for a take-over. That said, Democrats have a candidate that they were excited about and that is very well-funded, so they were looking to capitalize on this to expand the map a bit more and push the GOP into playing defense even more, which they most likely will not be able to do now.

The third House race making news is IL-11, the swing district left open by Rep. Weller a few months ago. This is a race in which recruiting has been very uneven, with Democrats getting state Senate President Debbie Halvorson while the GOP's top choice refused to get in. The GOP primary was won on February 5th by New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, who was not having a good race so far and anemic fundraising, prompting IL-11 to be moved up to the top of the vulnerable House races (I had already moved it to Lean Takeover in my November House rankings).

Now, Baldermann has announced he is dropping out of the race, leaving the GOP with no candidate. The primary has passed, which means that the district's Republicans can now just decide on a new nominee among themselves. This could actually prove a blessing, as the GOP now has much more time to find a candidate stronger than Baldermann -- and have the argument that that candidate won't even have to contest a primary. Given that Halvorson was already favored over Baldermann, the NRCC doesn't have that much to lose here at this point; but they definitely want to get in someone with at least some strength to not let Democrats pick up a seat with no competition.

One last note on a congressional race, this one from the Senate, as the latest Rasmussen poll from Virginia shows Mark Warner crushing Jim Gilmore, 57% to 37%. In the battle of the former Governors, the Democrat holds a clear edge and this is the most likely seat to be taken-over next year. And proof of how much of a favorite Warner is comes from the following internal: Warner leads by more among moderates (70% to 24%) than Gilmore does among conservatives (60% to 34%).

SUSA surveys most competitive Senate races and finds Democrats in good shape

Awesome morning for political junkies, as SurveyUSA has just released a poll from the seven most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Democrats look very good in six of them, but Maine still looks out of reach. In order of vulnerability:

• Virginia

Mark Warner looks like a done deal. He has one of the best favorability rating of any candidate polled by SUSA (49% favorable versus 23% unfavorable), certainly better than his opponent Jim Gilmore's (21-31). Warner leads Gilmore by a massive 57% to 35% -- in line with other polls we have seen, and big enough for the GOP to not even try.

There have been small rumors that George Allen might still jump in the Senate race, but SUSA shows that he would still badly trail Warner, 52% to 42%.

• New Hampshire

Here is another race with the Democratic challenger up by double-digits. Former Governor Shaheen leads Senator Sununu 53% to 42%. Strengthening her lead are the internals that have Shaheen's favorability rating at a strong 46-33, while Sununu has a negative rating at 31-38.

• Colorado

This is the first independent poll of the race that has pushed undecideds, and it helped Democrat Udall have his first lead of the cycle as independents break for him. Udall has a narrow edge, 48% to 41%, against Republican Bob Schaeffer. Udall has a good favorability rating (30-19), but both men are mainly unknown statewide.

• New Mexico

SUSA did a strange job here, as they tried both Republicans (Pearce and Wilson) against Chavez, Denish and Richardson (the latter two have made it clear they are not running), but not against Tom Udall who is looking at the race now and who many see as a stronger candidate. But Democrats still get good news with Chavez, who leads both Republicans: 48% to 43% against Pearce and 48% to 44% against Wilson.

This is much better than the SUSA poll of the beginning of October when Chavez was crushed by Pearce. But SUSA confirms how much stronger Governor Richardson would be, as he leads Pearce 58 to 37% and Wilson 59% to 37%. Another interesting finding: Most candidates are either unknown or aren't very polarizing, but Heather Wilson has a very high unfavorable rating: 48%. Probably because of the attorney general scandal.

• Minnesota

Minnesota has not been polled a lot, but Senator Coleman already appeared under 50% in the few polls that have been released. But this latest survey has Coleman weaker than we have ever seen him. He is tied with Democrat Mike Ciresi at 44%, and is ahead by an insignificant point against Al Franken, 46% to 45%. One factor against Franken is his high unfavorable rating: 37%, against 22% favorable. Coleman also has 37% unfavorable, but 36% favorable. This should still comfort those who say Franken cannot be elected.

• Oregon

I believe this is the first poll of Oregon we have seen all year, and Democrats will be relieved that Senator Gordon Smith is as vulnerable as they thought. He is under 50% against both his Democratic opponents: 48% to 39% against Jeff Merkley and 45% to 39% against Steve Novick. Adding to this, both Democrats are huge unknowns (67% and 78% of voters are unfamiliar with them, respectively), so they certainly have a lot of room to grow.

• Maine

And then comes Maine, and the third poll in two weeks that has Susan Collins with a massive lead against Democratic challenger Rep. Tom Allen... and more importantly, above 50%. She is ahead of Allen 55% to 38%, and posts a strong favorability rating: 48% to 25%. Allen cannot even rely on the hope voters don't know him, as only 11% are unfamiliar with him.

All in all, Democrats lead in four races, are tied in another, have made a sixth vulnerable and have a long way to go in the last -- and this does not even account for possible hot races in NC, AK or KY.

Virginia Republicans deal a blow to Tom Davis and to House Democrats

The Republican Party's Virginia Central Committee just voted 47-37 to settle on its nominee for the open Senate seat at a party convention rather than through a primary. This is a blow to Rep. Tom Davis and a victory for former Governor Jim Gilmore.

Davis is by far the more moderate of the two, and he comes from the Northern part of the state - the region that has single-handedly made Democrats competitive in Virginia over the past few years. Davis would be much less likely to get the GOP nod at a convention than he would be through a primary, and the Committee's decision was essentially a first round between the two presumptive candidates.

A blow for Tom Davis is good news for Democrat Mark Warner, as Davis is regarded as the much more competitive general election candidate. Davis could cut into the Democrat's lead in Northern part of the state and appeal to moderates much better than Gilmore. But Warner does not need this to be considered the overwhelming favorite. He already leads by 30% in the Washington Post poll released the other day.

But this is also a potential blow to House Democrats! Tom Davis might not want to jeopardize his safe House seat if he is not even likely to get the Republican nomination (though the timing of the convention might perhaps allow him to wait for the convention's outcome and still run for the House). Everyone has been assuming that VA-11 will be an open seat next year, and Democrats are already celebrating as VA-11 would definitely lean Democratic if Davis was not the GOP candidate.

House Republicans already have to defend so many open seats in marginal districts next year (NM-01, OH-15, AZ-01...) that they would love not having to worry about VA-11. Today's decision makes it possible they might have their wish granted.

• Rossi and Gregoire, round 2

In other down-the-ballot news, the Washington Governor's race was decided weeks after Election Day in 2004, as Democrat Gregoire finally prevailed after a second round against Republican Rossi. The GOP never acknowledged they had lost the race, and Gregoire started out with very low approval ratings. Polls taken in early 2005 showed Gregoire would lose a rematch by a significant margin, but she has recovered since then. Rossi is very likely to announce a run soon, and Washington will be one of the only competitive governor races in 2008.

A new poll by Strategic Vision (a Republican polling form) has the race at a complete toss-up, with Gregoire leading 47% to 45%.

Breaking - A Senate AND a House seat open up in VA as Warner retires. Huge opening for Democrats!

In what is the best news so far for Democrats in the 2008 entire Senate cycle (yes, better even than the Craig scandal), Virginia's GOP Senator John Warner has announced he is retiring from the Senate. He had called a press conference for today at 2pm, and just announced his decision!

This had been rumored for quite a while now, and most people expected this announcement. (Check how the Daily Progress was covering it this morning.) But Warner had managed to keep everyone guessing. He had raised almost no money (usually a sure sign an incumbent is preparing to retire) and, at 80, was approaching an age at which many Senators quit. But he was also maintaining a very active presence in the Senate, most notably on Iraq, leading many to question the conventional wisdom that he would retire.

But this also means that a competitive House seat will open up, as GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who is widely expected to jump in the Senate primary, will have to retire from his house seat. Davis's seat is very competitive and as swing a district as swing districts get in Virginia. This is obviously a huge opening for Democrats, since it is precisely in the type of seat Davis holds that they made huge gains in VA in 2005 and 2006.

Back to the Senate: This is a huge blow to the Republican Party. John Warner running for re-election would have made the seat safe. Instead, this catapults the race at the very top of Democrat pick-up opportunities. Former Governor Mark Warner, who left office in 2005 with high approval ratings, is said to be extremely interested in the race, and the DSCC will push as hard as it can to recruit him. If he gets in the race, Democrats would start off favored to take this seat. Republicans will likely split in a very nasty primary between Rep. Davis from the Northern part of the state and former Governor Gilmore. Davis is one of the most moderate Republicans in the house - and many in the GOP will likely ferociously oppose him and rally behind Gilmore. And while Davis has raised much more money, the nomination might be decided at a party convention instead of a primary which would dramatically favor Gilmore.

Thus, the big question now is whether Mark Warner runs. Many within the VA Dem Party are pressuring him to pass on the Senate race and run for Governor in 2009 instead. The Examiner reports on Warner's dilemma, and notes that Warner's wife and daughter are said to favor a Senate run. Sure to influence Warner is the fact that Virginia governors cannot run for re-election immediately after their term is over (they can comeback later), which wuold mean that Warner, if he was elected Governor, would be out of a job by 2013... too far ahead of the 2016 presidential elections which he is said to be looking at.

Also, Warner is clearly on top of the vice-presidential contenders for the 2008 ticket – running for Senate would mean removing him from VP consideration. Yet, conventional wisdom is that he is ready to jump in. Here is The Daily Progress's take on Warner's decision:

Key Democrats said Thursday that Mark Warner, an Alexandria Democrat who served as governor from 2002 to 2006, is expected to run for the Senate next year, providing that the senior Warner, no relation, announces his retirement. Mark Warner’s political schedule for September includes the traditional Labor Day parade in Buena Vista as well as events later Monday in Covington and Newport News. “I think that Mark will run for the Senate if John Warner steps aside,” said state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County.

Republicans are facing an increasing number of endangered seats: CO, MN, NH, OR, ME and now VA. Others could still add themselves to the list...

Also, we are being told that Senator Webb has scheduled a press conference to follow Warner's.

Check Virginia blog Not Larry Sabato for more coverage.

Update
Check out Marc Ambinder's take on Warner's retirement's impact on the presidential race.

Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia. Both Mark Warner and Sen. James Webb are considered by the politigensia to be potential vice presidential picks this year. Needless to say, Warner would take himself out of consideration by running for Senate. Will Webb be more attractive, or less attractive, if as a running mate in Warner is on the ballot? It's not clear.

Interesting take. While I had mentioned that Warner's Senate candidacy would remove him from VP contenders, Ambinder thinks his running for Senate could be as helpful for Democrats in the presidential race.

Evening Diary: Warner prepares high-stakes announcement

• Virginia: Is John Warner running for re-election?

Tomorrow will be a huge day for Senate news. Virginia's Senator John Warner has called a press conference at 2pm to announce whether or not he will run for re-election. This announcement is going to likely decide whether Virginia has a Democratic or Republican Senator come 2008: If he runs again, John Warner will likely face only token competition; but if he retires, Democratic will have a significant edge in the state because of the likely candidacy of former Governor Mark Warner.

So is he or isn't he? Amazingly, (John) Warner has managed to maintain the suspense, as there have been no leaks or credible indications of what he is going to announce. The conventional wisdom over the past few weeks has been that Warner would retire, but the Politico quoted Virginia Republicans today that expected Warner to run again. Warner has not acted like a politician running for re-election and has raised very little money, fueling speculations he is on his way out.

Check Campaign Diaries tomorrow afternoon to find out whether Democrats can expect to pick up this seat, or whether it has become a lost cause.

• Iowa Caucus

I reported earlier today that ARG's Republican poll showed Romney up 10% on Guiliani, with a stunning thirteen point rise to 14%. Later in the day, a ONE poll had very interesting numbers for the Republican contest:

• Romney leads with 35%, followed by Giuliani at 12% and Thompson and Huckabee tied at 11%. Just like in the ARG poll, McCain has collapsed in the single digits.

First off, Huckabee does seem to be on fire. He is in a virtual tie for second place, and has catapulted himself very near the first tier on the strenght of his Ames second-place alone. But the most important lesson of this poll is Thompton and Giuliani's weakness - much more so than Romney's strength. Giuliani and Thompson are not only behind, but they are also posting atrocious numbers. They're almost in single-digits!

Clearly, their decision to skip the August Straw Poll is hurting them badly. The Iowa Republican are punishing those who skipped Ames, and rewarding those who showed up. Can Giuiliani and Thompson recover from the impression that they are neglecting Iowa? Or is the Iowa electorate set up snubbing them right back?

• The Bathroom Scandal

Republicans are continuing to pressure Craig to resign. Today, NRSC Chairman Ensign joined many House members and a few Senators and called for Craig to step down, realizing that this scandal would likely not have any impact on the 2008 Senate races if Craig just goes away quietly. Not that Ensign called for Vitter's resignation after last month's straight prostitution scandal.

In related news, the Minneapolis Airport released the audio tape recording of the conversation between Senator Craig and Karsnia, the police officer who arrested him! The WaPo summarizes the tape's content. Noteworthy elements: Craig explicitely maintains he denies the charges but that he will plead guilty to avoid going to court; Karsnia accuses Craig of lying; and he then expresses dismay at politicians like Craig that make "[us go] down the tubes." He goes on to declare that, "I expect this from the guy we get out of the 'hood. I mean, people vote for you."

• Death penalty commutation in Texas

Texas Governor Perry commuted the death penalty of a man about to be executed not for actually killing someone, but only for being an accomplice to murder - or rather for failing to prevent a crime he supposedly should have foreseen. It is rare for a Governor (especially ones in Texas...) to commute death penalty sentences, so that this decision was rather unexpected.