Virginia Republicans deal a blow to Tom Davis and to House Democrats
The Republican Party's Virginia Central Committee just voted 47-37 to settle on its nominee for the open Senate seat at a party convention rather than through a primary. This is a blow to Rep. Tom Davis and a victory for former Governor Jim Gilmore.
Davis is by far the more moderate of the two, and he comes from the Northern part of the state - the region that has single-handedly made Democrats competitive in Virginia over the past few years. Davis would be much less likely to get the GOP nod at a convention than he would be through a primary, and the Committee's decision was essentially a first round between the two presumptive candidates.
A blow for Tom Davis is good news for Democrat Mark Warner, as Davis is regarded as the much more competitive general election candidate. Davis could cut into the Democrat's lead in Northern part of the state and appeal to moderates much better than Gilmore. But Warner does not need this to be considered the overwhelming favorite. He already leads by 30% in the Washington Post poll released the other day.
But this is also a potential blow to House Democrats! Tom Davis might not want to jeopardize his safe House seat if he is not even likely to get the Republican nomination (though the timing of the convention might perhaps allow him to wait for the convention's outcome and still run for the House). Everyone has been assuming that VA-11 will be an open seat next year, and Democrats are already celebrating as VA-11 would definitely lean Democratic if Davis was not the GOP candidate.
House Republicans already have to defend so many open seats in marginal districts next year (NM-01, OH-15, AZ-01...) that they would love not having to worry about VA-11. Today's decision makes it possible they might have their wish granted.
A new poll by Strategic Vision (a Republican polling form) has the race at a complete toss-up, with Gregoire leading 47% to 45%.
Davis is by far the more moderate of the two, and he comes from the Northern part of the state - the region that has single-handedly made Democrats competitive in Virginia over the past few years. Davis would be much less likely to get the GOP nod at a convention than he would be through a primary, and the Committee's decision was essentially a first round between the two presumptive candidates.
A blow for Tom Davis is good news for Democrat Mark Warner, as Davis is regarded as the much more competitive general election candidate. Davis could cut into the Democrat's lead in Northern part of the state and appeal to moderates much better than Gilmore. But Warner does not need this to be considered the overwhelming favorite. He already leads by 30% in the Washington Post poll released the other day.
But this is also a potential blow to House Democrats! Tom Davis might not want to jeopardize his safe House seat if he is not even likely to get the Republican nomination (though the timing of the convention might perhaps allow him to wait for the convention's outcome and still run for the House). Everyone has been assuming that VA-11 will be an open seat next year, and Democrats are already celebrating as VA-11 would definitely lean Democratic if Davis was not the GOP candidate.
House Republicans already have to defend so many open seats in marginal districts next year (NM-01, OH-15, AZ-01...) that they would love not having to worry about VA-11. Today's decision makes it possible they might have their wish granted.
- Rossi and Gregoire, round 2
A new poll by Strategic Vision (a Republican polling form) has the race at a complete toss-up, with Gregoire leading 47% to 45%.
posted by Taniel at
4:24 PM
1 Comments:
I live in Washington state and many Democrats thought Attorney General Gregoire did not go after Rossi aggressively enough in 2004. I suspect she will not make that mistake this time.
Gregoire has been popular with the Democratic base due to a variety of measures (expanded health insurance for children, Puget Sound cleanup, transportation bill, funding for education initiatives, two gay & lesbian civil rights bills) she has passed. The local economy is solid, making it a non-issue. She even co-opted a Republican supported idea to make a "Rainy Day" fund in case state revenues go south. The lawsuit she filed against Bush's restrictions on SCHIP pits her in a high-profile battle over children's health against an unpopular administration. In a Democratic leaning state and a horrible political environment for Republicans, I think she has done enough to win. The challenge will be getting the message out. Gregoire's Achilles heel is that she has been weak at PR and communicating her agenda. Rossi, in contrast, is good at PR. However, at this point Gregoire would have to make major mistakes in her reelection campaign to lose. That is possible but unlikely.
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Unknown, At
14 October, 2007 16:57
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