Breaking - A Senate AND a House seat open up in VA as Warner retires. Huge opening for Democrats!

In what is the best news so far for Democrats in the 2008 entire Senate cycle (yes, better even than the Craig scandal), Virginia's GOP Senator John Warner has announced he is retiring from the Senate. He had called a press conference for today at 2pm, and just announced his decision!

This had been rumored for quite a while now, and most people expected this announcement. (Check how the Daily Progress was covering it this morning.) But Warner had managed to keep everyone guessing. He had raised almost no money (usually a sure sign an incumbent is preparing to retire) and, at 80, was approaching an age at which many Senators quit. But he was also maintaining a very active presence in the Senate, most notably on Iraq, leading many to question the conventional wisdom that he would retire.

But this also means that a competitive House seat will open up, as GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who is widely expected to jump in the Senate primary, will have to retire from his house seat. Davis's seat is very competitive and as swing a district as swing districts get in Virginia. This is obviously a huge opening for Democrats, since it is precisely in the type of seat Davis holds that they made huge gains in VA in 2005 and 2006.

Back to the Senate: This is a huge blow to the Republican Party. John Warner running for re-election would have made the seat safe. Instead, this catapults the race at the very top of Democrat pick-up opportunities. Former Governor Mark Warner, who left office in 2005 with high approval ratings, is said to be extremely interested in the race, and the DSCC will push as hard as it can to recruit him. If he gets in the race, Democrats would start off favored to take this seat. Republicans will likely split in a very nasty primary between Rep. Davis from the Northern part of the state and former Governor Gilmore. Davis is one of the most moderate Republicans in the house - and many in the GOP will likely ferociously oppose him and rally behind Gilmore. And while Davis has raised much more money, the nomination might be decided at a party convention instead of a primary which would dramatically favor Gilmore.

Thus, the big question now is whether Mark Warner runs. Many within the VA Dem Party are pressuring him to pass on the Senate race and run for Governor in 2009 instead. The Examiner reports on Warner's dilemma, and notes that Warner's wife and daughter are said to favor a Senate run. Sure to influence Warner is the fact that Virginia governors cannot run for re-election immediately after their term is over (they can comeback later), which wuold mean that Warner, if he was elected Governor, would be out of a job by 2013... too far ahead of the 2016 presidential elections which he is said to be looking at.

Also, Warner is clearly on top of the vice-presidential contenders for the 2008 ticket – running for Senate would mean removing him from VP consideration. Yet, conventional wisdom is that he is ready to jump in. Here is The Daily Progress's take on Warner's decision:

Key Democrats said Thursday that Mark Warner, an Alexandria Democrat who served as governor from 2002 to 2006, is expected to run for the Senate next year, providing that the senior Warner, no relation, announces his retirement. Mark Warner’s political schedule for September includes the traditional Labor Day parade in Buena Vista as well as events later Monday in Covington and Newport News. “I think that Mark will run for the Senate if John Warner steps aside,” said state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County.

Republicans are facing an increasing number of endangered seats: CO, MN, NH, OR, ME and now VA. Others could still add themselves to the list...

Also, we are being told that Senator Webb has scheduled a press conference to follow Warner's.

Check Virginia blog Not Larry Sabato for more coverage.

Update
Check out Marc Ambinder's take on Warner's retirement's impact on the presidential race.

Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia. Both Mark Warner and Sen. James Webb are considered by the politigensia to be potential vice presidential picks this year. Needless to say, Warner would take himself out of consideration by running for Senate. Will Webb be more attractive, or less attractive, if as a running mate in Warner is on the ballot? It's not clear.

Interesting take. While I had mentioned that Warner's Senate candidacy would remove him from VP contenders, Ambinder thinks his running for Senate could be as helpful for Democrats in the presidential race.