Wednesday polls: Strong day for Obama who leads big in PA, OH, WI and ME and within the margin of error in VA and FL

Quinnipiac released its eagerly anticipated set of swing state polls, and after two weak showing by Obama in the waves of early April and mid-May, he has improved significantly over the past month by solidifying the support of registered Democrats. Though his lead in all three of these states is inferior to where Clinton stood last month, it still represents a significant shift towards the Illinois Senator:

• In Florida, Obama is ahead 47% to 43%. He trailed by 4% in May.
  
• A month ago, he trailed among independents and got 71% of the Democratic vote. In June, he leads indies by 10% and has the support of 82% of Democrats. 19% of those who voted Clinton in the primary would choose McCain, however.

• In Ohio, Obama leads 48% to 42% -- no doubt boosted by Bush's dismal approval rating of 22%! He trailed by 4% in May.
  
• He has improved his share of the registered Dem vote from 69% to 80% and trails by 3% among independents. Among Clinton voters, however, he only leads 63% to 25%.
  

• In Pennsylvania, finally, Obama crushes McCain 52% to 40%. He led by 6% in May.
  
• Obama gets 78% of registered Democrats compared to 71% in May. He leads by 11% among independents, though his support among Clinton voters remains tepid (66% versus 24% for McCain).
  

This seems to be the first Florida poll to ever find Obama ahead of McCain, too early, then, to know whether something is actually changing (this is also the first Florida poll released by any institute since Quinnipiac's last poll a month ago!). But note the uniformity of the bounce in Obama's favor: He has improved by 6%, 6% and 8% in these three states, suggesting about the same size bounce that we witnessed in Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking. The margin has narrowed again in those trackings and that we will have to wait for confirmation that Obama has jumped up in those states from other surveys (PPP yesterday showed Obama up 11% in Ohio). Also, black support in favor of Obama is particularly strong and is what is helping the Democrat create some space: He gets between 90% and 95% of the African-American vote, much stronger than what Kerry got in 2004.

As Quinnipiac points out, no candidate has won the election without at least two of these three states in 48 years, so for Obama to get even two would make the road to the White House very difficult for McCain. However, Michigan now appears to be just as competitive as these 3 states and muddies the equation a bit, as picking up Michigan could help McCain offset the loss of Ohio. Meanwhile, a number of other polls were released today from other crucial states that Obama seems intent on contesting:

• First, Zogby's latest national poll shows the Democrat leading 47% to 42%. Other good news for Obama: he leads by 22% among independents. The bad news: He is only ahead 54% to 44% among Hispanics and 54% of respondents say he does not have the experience to be president.

• In Virginia, PPP finds Obama edging out McCain 47% to 45%. He gets 78% of Democrats -- a strong showing in a Southern state.

• In Wisconsin, SUSA finds Obama ahead 52% to 43% -- up from a 6% lead in May. This includes the support of 91% of registered Democrats (!) and a 23% lead among women.
  
• SUSA also continues to provide completely useless VP pairings: Which poll respondents has ever heard of Carly Fiorina?

• In Maine, Obama crushes McCain 55% to 33%, up from a 13% lead last month in a new Rasmussen poll. There's no breakdown by congressional district but with this sort of lead there is no doubt Obama is ahead in both.

• In Alaska, finally, Rasmussen continues to find competitive races, with McCain ahead 45% to 41%, down from a 9% lead last month.
• McCain and Obama have comparable favorability ratings (58% to 53% rspectively) but the enthusiasm level really varies, both among very favorable opinions (29% Obama and 18% McCain) and very unfavorable (31% Obama). This is a pattern we are seeing in many red states.
  

Wisconsin's lead confirms other polls we have been seeing and my hypothesis that the "Dukakis 5" states are coming home, slowly removing 5 blue states from the list McCain can contest. The Alaska poll is stunning, of course, though it is unclear how much the campaigns will look in that direction (it is rather far, after all).

And I have resolved to no longer express wonder and amazement when a Virginia poll shows a tie or Obama narrowly ahead, as every poll recently released from the Commonwealth shows that result -- including one released early this week. That the state's 13 electoral votes are in play are a nightmare for McCain as they expand the map in a region the GOP has long not had to defend. With Mark Warner set to destroy Jim Gilmore, there could even be reverse coattails -- as the PPP poll confirms:

• This Senate race is no doubt polled so much because Virginia is competitive at the presidential level, but we are still waiting for Colorado to be polled this much. PPP finds Warner crushing 59% to 28% and the worst news for Gilmore is that no one is surprised...
  

• In more interesting Senate news, Susan Collins continues to slip in Maine. The latest Rasmussen poll finds her ahead 49% to 42% -- under 50% and within single-digits for the first time. Last month's poll, finding her ahead by 10%, was already the tightest the race has ever been.
  
• Proving that Collins is in a Chaffee-esque situation of being driven down by her party rather than by her own liabilities, she has a shockingly high 70% favorability rating.
  

• In North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole rebounds in a new Civitas poll: Barely ahead 45% to 43% last month, she is now leading 48% to 38%.
  

• In another congressional poll from that state, this one from NC-08, Larry Kissell is narrowly ahead of Rep. Hayes 45% to 43% in an internal poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt.
• This is a district that voted Bush twice (including by 9% in 2004) but Obama leads McCain 50% to 37% (should we take that as a sign that the poll oversamples dems? A 23% swing from where we were 4 years ago is perhaps a bit much).
  

Maine has long been a disappointment to Dems, as Collins has been ahead by more than 20% in many polls taken since the fall of 2007. But as partisan passions heat up in the coming months it looks like Collins could get dangerously close to being this cycle's Linc Chaffee and suffer from her party's dismal ratings. As Al Franken's situation is worsening in MN, the DSCC would be delighted to get Maine back in the picture. As for NC, Dole is still under 50% in the Civitas poll but this is the second pollster (after Rasmussen) among those that had shown a tied race in May (after Hagan's primary victory) to find that Dole has rebounded. There are clear reasons for that, too: (1) Hagan's primary bounce faded and (2) Dole has been running TV ads over the past few weeks. Still within striking distance for Democrats but no reason to be as euphoric as the DSCC was last month.

House update: 2 more special elections, new polls, and the latest recruitment news

• Special elections: IN-07 and LA-06

We have been facing a seemingly never-ending series of special election over the past few months. And here are two more coming up. First, Indiana's 7th district, that opened up last month after Rep. Carson passed away. Last week-end, both parties selected their candidates for the March special election but only the party's leadership participate in the choice, as the selection was not opened to a primary process. The GOP is fielding its strongest competitor, state Rep. Jon Elrod who was already eying a run before the seat opened up. Democrats chose the grandson of the former representative, Andre Carson. Many are criticizing that choice as the weakest choice the Democrats could have made.

And indeed it looks like Democrats will have a fight in their hands in a blue district that Bush lost decisively. But Dems unexpectedly lost Indianapolis in November, suggesting that the GOP has an opening in this region. And a poll that was released a few days ago has Carson barely edging Elrod 41% to 38%. Caveat: The poll was conducted for one of Carson's rivals in the Democratic selection process. But considering that the GOP has been excited about Elrod for a long time now, expect a big fight in this district come March.

Second we have LA-06, where Rep. Richard Baker is resigning from his House seat 22 years after entering Congress in order to... join the private sector. In other words, he is following in Trent Lott's footsteps. This is a district that is clearly Republican and that Bush won with 59%, but Democrats believe they have a chance. This is the opposite scenario as IN-07, as Dems already had a candidate eying the seat before it opened up: state Rep. Don Cazayoux, a conservative Democrat who is being touted as a very strong recruit who could take the district from Republican hands. And however competitive Cazayoux actually manages to make the seat, expect the DCCC to dump a big sum of money in a replay of OH-06.

• NC-08: Hayes in trouble in North Carolina

Rep. Hayes barely survived his 2006 re-election bid in a shocking shocking by democrat Larry Kissell who only lost by 329 votes. The DCCC had not committed to the seat at all, believing it had better chances elsewhere and it got criticized for failing to push Kissell through the finish line. This time, the DCCC is looking closely at the race and will likely help Kissell but Rep. Hayes has a big advantage over 2006: he knows what is coming and is preparing himself (and raising money) accordingly.

Yet, a new poll has Hayes trailing 49% to 47%, which is obviously a very week showing for an incumbent. The poll was conducted by Greenberg Research, one of the most reputable Democratic firms, for the CAP Action Fund and the SEIU union. So it is an internal poll of sorts but it still paints a dire picture for Hayes.

• KY-03: Is Northup coming back?

Good news for Republicans in KY-03, one of their (slightly) surprising losses in 2006. Rep. Anne Northup, who had survived a countless number of challenges over the years, is now nearing a decision on whether to run again, something she was not planning to do a few months ago. Freshman Democrat Rep. Yarmuth was hoping to face an easy road to re-election, especially given that the district leans Democratic at the presidential level. But there is no doubt that (relatively moderate) Northup could give him the most dangerous re-election fights he would likely face for a while.

Take two factors into account however: Northup lost a very hard-fought GOP primary for governor last year against incumbent Ernie Fletcher, so that has got to do something to her appeal here in the district, and second, a poll commissioned by the NRSC has Yarmuth ahead 49% to 47%. That means that this race will be very hard-fought, but Northup probably has as good if not better name ID than Yarmuth so that factor that usually bodes well for challengers will not play to her favor.