Wednesday polls: Strong day for Obama who leads big in PA, OH, WI and ME and within the margin of error in VA and FL

Quinnipiac released its eagerly anticipated set of swing state polls, and after two weak showing by Obama in the waves of early April and mid-May, he has improved significantly over the past month by solidifying the support of registered Democrats. Though his lead in all three of these states is inferior to where Clinton stood last month, it still represents a significant shift towards the Illinois Senator:

• In Florida, Obama is ahead 47% to 43%. He trailed by 4% in May.
  
• A month ago, he trailed among independents and got 71% of the Democratic vote. In June, he leads indies by 10% and has the support of 82% of Democrats. 19% of those who voted Clinton in the primary would choose McCain, however.

• In Ohio, Obama leads 48% to 42% -- no doubt boosted by Bush's dismal approval rating of 22%! He trailed by 4% in May.
  
• He has improved his share of the registered Dem vote from 69% to 80% and trails by 3% among independents. Among Clinton voters, however, he only leads 63% to 25%.
  

• In Pennsylvania, finally, Obama crushes McCain 52% to 40%. He led by 6% in May.
  
• Obama gets 78% of registered Democrats compared to 71% in May. He leads by 11% among independents, though his support among Clinton voters remains tepid (66% versus 24% for McCain).
  

This seems to be the first Florida poll to ever find Obama ahead of McCain, too early, then, to know whether something is actually changing (this is also the first Florida poll released by any institute since Quinnipiac's last poll a month ago!). But note the uniformity of the bounce in Obama's favor: He has improved by 6%, 6% and 8% in these three states, suggesting about the same size bounce that we witnessed in Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking. The margin has narrowed again in those trackings and that we will have to wait for confirmation that Obama has jumped up in those states from other surveys (PPP yesterday showed Obama up 11% in Ohio). Also, black support in favor of Obama is particularly strong and is what is helping the Democrat create some space: He gets between 90% and 95% of the African-American vote, much stronger than what Kerry got in 2004.

As Quinnipiac points out, no candidate has won the election without at least two of these three states in 48 years, so for Obama to get even two would make the road to the White House very difficult for McCain. However, Michigan now appears to be just as competitive as these 3 states and muddies the equation a bit, as picking up Michigan could help McCain offset the loss of Ohio. Meanwhile, a number of other polls were released today from other crucial states that Obama seems intent on contesting:

• First, Zogby's latest national poll shows the Democrat leading 47% to 42%. Other good news for Obama: he leads by 22% among independents. The bad news: He is only ahead 54% to 44% among Hispanics and 54% of respondents say he does not have the experience to be president.

• In Virginia, PPP finds Obama edging out McCain 47% to 45%. He gets 78% of Democrats -- a strong showing in a Southern state.

• In Wisconsin, SUSA finds Obama ahead 52% to 43% -- up from a 6% lead in May. This includes the support of 91% of registered Democrats (!) and a 23% lead among women.
  
• SUSA also continues to provide completely useless VP pairings: Which poll respondents has ever heard of Carly Fiorina?

• In Maine, Obama crushes McCain 55% to 33%, up from a 13% lead last month in a new Rasmussen poll. There's no breakdown by congressional district but with this sort of lead there is no doubt Obama is ahead in both.

• In Alaska, finally, Rasmussen continues to find competitive races, with McCain ahead 45% to 41%, down from a 9% lead last month.
• McCain and Obama have comparable favorability ratings (58% to 53% rspectively) but the enthusiasm level really varies, both among very favorable opinions (29% Obama and 18% McCain) and very unfavorable (31% Obama). This is a pattern we are seeing in many red states.
  

Wisconsin's lead confirms other polls we have been seeing and my hypothesis that the "Dukakis 5" states are coming home, slowly removing 5 blue states from the list McCain can contest. The Alaska poll is stunning, of course, though it is unclear how much the campaigns will look in that direction (it is rather far, after all).

And I have resolved to no longer express wonder and amazement when a Virginia poll shows a tie or Obama narrowly ahead, as every poll recently released from the Commonwealth shows that result -- including one released early this week. That the state's 13 electoral votes are in play are a nightmare for McCain as they expand the map in a region the GOP has long not had to defend. With Mark Warner set to destroy Jim Gilmore, there could even be reverse coattails -- as the PPP poll confirms:

• This Senate race is no doubt polled so much because Virginia is competitive at the presidential level, but we are still waiting for Colorado to be polled this much. PPP finds Warner crushing 59% to 28% and the worst news for Gilmore is that no one is surprised...
  

• In more interesting Senate news, Susan Collins continues to slip in Maine. The latest Rasmussen poll finds her ahead 49% to 42% -- under 50% and within single-digits for the first time. Last month's poll, finding her ahead by 10%, was already the tightest the race has ever been.
  
• Proving that Collins is in a Chaffee-esque situation of being driven down by her party rather than by her own liabilities, she has a shockingly high 70% favorability rating.
  

• In North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole rebounds in a new Civitas poll: Barely ahead 45% to 43% last month, she is now leading 48% to 38%.
  

• In another congressional poll from that state, this one from NC-08, Larry Kissell is narrowly ahead of Rep. Hayes 45% to 43% in an internal poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt.
• This is a district that voted Bush twice (including by 9% in 2004) but Obama leads McCain 50% to 37% (should we take that as a sign that the poll oversamples dems? A 23% swing from where we were 4 years ago is perhaps a bit much).
  

Maine has long been a disappointment to Dems, as Collins has been ahead by more than 20% in many polls taken since the fall of 2007. But as partisan passions heat up in the coming months it looks like Collins could get dangerously close to being this cycle's Linc Chaffee and suffer from her party's dismal ratings. As Al Franken's situation is worsening in MN, the DSCC would be delighted to get Maine back in the picture. As for NC, Dole is still under 50% in the Civitas poll but this is the second pollster (after Rasmussen) among those that had shown a tied race in May (after Hagan's primary victory) to find that Dole has rebounded. There are clear reasons for that, too: (1) Hagan's primary bounce faded and (2) Dole has been running TV ads over the past few weeks. Still within striking distance for Democrats but no reason to be as euphoric as the DSCC was last month.

Friday polls: Preparing for May 20th, and new results from Alaska and Maine's Senate races

The political world's attention has turned away from the Democratic primaries -- to the great frustration of the 5 states and territories that have not gotten a chance to vote. So close to mattering, Kentucky and Oregon will still decide the conditions in which the Democratic candidates finish the race, how much talk there is of Obama's general election vulnerabilities and also -- and this could obviously prove important -- whether Clinton is at all in a position to drag this thing to the convention. Two new polls from ARG suggest Clinton could have a very good day on May 20th, when Kentucky and Oregon hold their primaries:

• In Oregon, ARG finds Obama to be ahead only 50% to 45%.
  
• Oregon's primary is entirely mail-in and 58% of respondents said they had already turned in their ballot. Among those, Clinton and Obama are tied at 49%. Note that this is the second poll in which Clinton is tied with Obama among this group of voters but trailing overall (SUSA was the first a few days ago) suggesting the Obama camp might be demobilizing.

• Meanwhile, ARG shows Clinton crushing Obama 65% to 29% in Kentucky, including 73% of white voters. Note that Edwards is once again on the ballot here so we will see if he can repeat his West Virginia exploits.

In the list of "what if"s that must be haunting the Clinton campaign is something they had no control over and that no one really thought would matter until the morning of February 6th -- what if West Virginia and Kentucky were scheduled to vote in the latter half of February instead of, say, Maryland and Louisiana. Or Virginia and Wisconsin. Would Obama have built the same unstoppable momentum, putting Clinton in an untenable position in the run-up to March 4th? The quickness with which the race went from "this is a pure toss-up" on February 6th to "is there any path for Clinton to win the nomination" on February 13th was one of the most remarkable stretches of time of this entire campaign.

Meanwhile, general election polls were released today:

• First, a Strategic Vision poll from Georgia shows McCain leading Obama by a 54% to 40%.

This is not as huge a margin as Republicans can hope, but it's hard to see a path for Obama to make this state competitive for now, despite talk of that in some Democratic circles. Georgia has been one of the states that has been trending the most Republican in the past few years. It was the only state where Republicans got close to winning a Dem-held seat in 2006 (not one, but two!) and consider that this same Strategic Vision poll shows that the leading Democrat in the senatorial primary is someone who professes to have voted for Bush in both 2000 and 2004... Also:

• A Rasmussen poll from Kansas shows McCain not trembling against either Democrat in this deep red state. He leads Obama 55% to 34% and Clinton 53% to 39%.
  

• A Rasmussen poll from Maine shows both Democrats leading McCain 51% to 38%, a good margin in a sometimes-tight state where a close victory would mean the loss of an electoral vote.
  

• Also, a Rasmussen poll from Washington confirms that WA will be less competitive this year than in 2000 (it wasn't at the front of Dem worries in 04). Obama leads 51% to 40%, Clinton 47% to 42% -- very similar margins to yesterday's SUSA poll.

• Finally, Alaska is the big surprise of the day as polls continue to show a single-digit general election race in what is supposed to be a Republican blowout. Research 2000 finds McCain leading 49% to 42% (Clinton trails 55% to 37%) and Rasmussen finds McCain leading 50% to 41% -- slightly larger but still underwhelming.
  

Alaska's tightness is the only shocking finding of these numbers, though McCain was certainly hoping to keep both Washington and Maine closer due to his appeal among independents. Maine has been a state where both Kerry and Gore have feared losing one of the districts and thus an electoral vote (ME and NE are the only non-winner-take-all states) and Democrats would not like to have to spend money to defend just one electoral vote come the fall campaign.

Finally, three down-the-ballot polls, both from Rasmussen, give something to spin to both parties:

• In Washington, Christine Gregoire has opened a surprising 52% to 41% lead against challenger Dino Rossi in the gubernatorial race. All polls of this race have shown a complete toss-up, with the animosity of the 2004 campaign translating to fixed positions in 2008. So until there is confirmation that there has been movement, consider this to be an outlier.

• Meanwhile, in Maine's Senate race, Rasmussen finds Susan Collins leading Tom Allen by 10 percent, 52% to 42%. This is down from a 16% lead last month.

• Finally, a new Rasmussen poll from Alaska shows Mark Begich leading Ted Stevens 47% to 45% -- a confirmation of the trouble Stevens is in after a Research 2000 poll showed him trailing by 5% earlier this week. The previous Rasmussen poll showed Stevens leading by 1%.
  

It's hard to know what to make of the Maine Senate race. This has been one of the Democrats' top target since the beginning. But a series of polls in the fall showing Collins with huge leads against Allen showed that this would not be a repeat of Rhode Island's 2006 race and that Collins had a much more solid base among independents and Democrats (a base any Republican Senator needs in Maine). In this poll, she gets 34% of Democrats and the two candidates are tied among independents. Also, this poll finds her with a 70% favorability rating, including 32% saying they have a very favorable impression of her. And Tom Allen is no unknown...

Yet, in a Democratic year in a Democratic state with a strong candidate, Democrats are not out of the running yet. A 10 percent lead is still not enough to make this a top-tier race, but it looks like the increase of partisanship could be making Collins more vulnerable, and the disparity between her favorability rating and her vote percentage is telling of the same difficulty that plagued Chaffee in Rhode Island. But she remains above 50 percent so we will wait for confirmation that there is any tightening at all here.

Senate diary: Schumer sets the stage, polls confirm

Chuck Schumer, the chairman of the DSCC, briefed reporters yesterday about his party's chances in the various competitive seats. There were very little surprises, with most states falling where we expect them to and roughly where they are ranked in my Senate rankings, except for two seats: Schumer described Alaska as a "top target," the group of seat made up of VA, NH, NM and CO in which Schumer said the Democrats are ahead. While polls are showing Sen. Stevens to be in huge trouble, Alaska is still near unanimously described as at best a toss-up given how structurally Republican the state is.

The second surprise is that Schumer rated Mississippi's Senate race with "red-state seats in striking range" (with the company of for now not very competitive NC and KY) rather than with what he described as the "second tier" (made up of OR, ME and MN). A recent poll showed Democrat Musgrave leading the incumbent Republican in Mississippi, after all, while Democrats are having trouble putting Oregon and Maine truly in play. The chairman of the DSCC is expected to spin races as more competitive than they could believably be, but his downrating them is more surprising; does it suggest he has seen numbers we don't have access to?

Meanwhile, a few polls released over the past 2 days confirm our impression of various races:

• In the most interesting of these three surveys, Rasmussen shows Senator Collins of Maine is crushing her Democratic challenger 54% to 38%.
• Her favorability rating stands at a very impressive 72%, making Allen's 59% look weak in comparison.
  

• In Tennessee, incumbent Lamar Alexander is not trembling against two potential opponents, coming in with 58% and 59% depending on the match-up.
  

• In Alabama, Senator Sessions is showing no sign of vulnerability, leading Democrat Vivian Davis Figures 58% to 36% and posting a 72% favorability rating also.

Neither TN nor AL are attracting anyone's attention; Schumer didn't even list them on as sleepers, outsider races (a list that includes TX [fair enough], OK, and less convincing ID, NE, KS and... GA).

Maine, of course, is a much more interesting case. Democrats were very excited about recruiting Allen and were confident they would be able do to Collins what they did to Chafee in 2006; a fairly popular incumbent, Chafee could not hold on as a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic state in an overwhelmingly Democratic year. But Collins has proved much more resistant: Maine is not Rhode Island and the high favorability rating she enjoys will make it very difficult for Democrats to convince voters that she was a blind surrogate of the Bush Administration. A 54% to 38% margin is actually much smaller than what we are used to seeing in Maine... which is saying a lot about how difficult the race has been for Allen so far.

Finally, a quick note on the Oregon Senate race about which Democrats were initially as excited as about Maine's, but failed to recruit their top-tier potential candidates. They then touted the candidacy of Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. But the DSCC's preferred candidate is facing a competitive primary and -- 6 weeks from the May 20th primary -- he is coming in third in a SUSA poll released Monday, behind attorney Steve Novick who has been running hard for months. It's worth noting that in both public polls of the race so far Novick runs stronger than Merkley does, so this is not to say that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot. But the DSCC is known for sometimes giving up on a seat if the candidate they see as the most competitive fails to make it through the primary.

In non-senatorial news, finally, SUSA released a poll from Washington's governor races, confirming that the race is as consistent a toss-up as it possibly could be since it is picking up exactly where we left off four years ago. Christine Gregoire is edging out Dino Rossi by a statistically insignificant 48% to 47%.

Senate diary: Series of polls brings good news to both parties

New Jersey's Senate race is monopolizing the attention right now, but a number of polls released over the past few days give him some pointers about the situation in other states, the first of which comes to us from Rasmussen:

• In the battle of former Virginia governors, Democrat Mark Warner leads his opponent Jim Gilmore 55% to 39%.

This is actually a decent showing for the Republican given how much Warner is favored in this race, and that a poll in which Gilmore is led 65-21 among unaffiliated voters can be described as good news says a lot about his chances.

Meanwhile, the GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates conducted polls in three states for a business coalition (Coalition for a Democratic Workplace). These polls were taken early in March, so it has been a while. But since news is slow yet in congressional races these polls are still useful. Take these numbers with the usual necessary grain of salt since they come from a partisan pollster, and here are the results from three major Senate races:

• In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken 46% to 40%.

• In Maine, Senator Susan Collins leads Democrat Allen 54% to 31%.

• In Colorado, finally, Democrat Mark Udall is ahead in a Republican-held seat, beating Bob Schaffer 44% to 32%.
  

The first two polls confirm nearly everything we have seen already. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman is clearly endangered as he comes in under 50% in nearly all polls; the lead he posts in this survey is more worrisome than reassuring for an incumbent this far out from Election Day. But Coleman is clearly far from being in a desperate position and does not share the indignity of his colleague Sununu (from NH) who trails his challenger by double-digits in all polls. This race will remain a toss-up to the end.

In Maine, however, Democrats have still not been able to put the seat in play. This is actually the first poll from Maine since last November but Collins also posted such large leads then. This race was touted as one of the most competitive of the cycle a few months ago but Allen has to find a way to make Collins vulnerable because she is starting off looking strong.

Finally, the Colorado numbers are interesting since it is the first poll I know of that shows a candidate up double-digit. The conventional wisdom had long held that Udall would start off favored in this open seat but poll after poll showed the race to be a toss-up. In 2006, Democrat Ritter suddenly distanced his Republican adversary in the open gubernatorial race, and the DSCC would love for Udall to do the same here, though one poll is obviously far from enough to conclude anything of the sort.

One last note in this down-the-ballot polling diary, albeit one that odes not concern a senatorial race: Rasmussen released a poll from the Washington Governor's race and finds a toss-up, with Democratic incumbent Christine Gregoire leading Republican Dino Rossi 47% to 46%. I am fully expecting this race to remain just as tight all the way to November, though I give the incumbent the slightest of edges in my latest gubernatorial rankings.

SUSA surveys most competitive Senate races and finds Democrats in good shape

Awesome morning for political junkies, as SurveyUSA has just released a poll from the seven most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Democrats look very good in six of them, but Maine still looks out of reach. In order of vulnerability:

• Virginia

Mark Warner looks like a done deal. He has one of the best favorability rating of any candidate polled by SUSA (49% favorable versus 23% unfavorable), certainly better than his opponent Jim Gilmore's (21-31). Warner leads Gilmore by a massive 57% to 35% -- in line with other polls we have seen, and big enough for the GOP to not even try.

There have been small rumors that George Allen might still jump in the Senate race, but SUSA shows that he would still badly trail Warner, 52% to 42%.

• New Hampshire

Here is another race with the Democratic challenger up by double-digits. Former Governor Shaheen leads Senator Sununu 53% to 42%. Strengthening her lead are the internals that have Shaheen's favorability rating at a strong 46-33, while Sununu has a negative rating at 31-38.

• Colorado

This is the first independent poll of the race that has pushed undecideds, and it helped Democrat Udall have his first lead of the cycle as independents break for him. Udall has a narrow edge, 48% to 41%, against Republican Bob Schaeffer. Udall has a good favorability rating (30-19), but both men are mainly unknown statewide.

• New Mexico

SUSA did a strange job here, as they tried both Republicans (Pearce and Wilson) against Chavez, Denish and Richardson (the latter two have made it clear they are not running), but not against Tom Udall who is looking at the race now and who many see as a stronger candidate. But Democrats still get good news with Chavez, who leads both Republicans: 48% to 43% against Pearce and 48% to 44% against Wilson.

This is much better than the SUSA poll of the beginning of October when Chavez was crushed by Pearce. But SUSA confirms how much stronger Governor Richardson would be, as he leads Pearce 58 to 37% and Wilson 59% to 37%. Another interesting finding: Most candidates are either unknown or aren't very polarizing, but Heather Wilson has a very high unfavorable rating: 48%. Probably because of the attorney general scandal.

• Minnesota

Minnesota has not been polled a lot, but Senator Coleman already appeared under 50% in the few polls that have been released. But this latest survey has Coleman weaker than we have ever seen him. He is tied with Democrat Mike Ciresi at 44%, and is ahead by an insignificant point against Al Franken, 46% to 45%. One factor against Franken is his high unfavorable rating: 37%, against 22% favorable. Coleman also has 37% unfavorable, but 36% favorable. This should still comfort those who say Franken cannot be elected.

• Oregon

I believe this is the first poll of Oregon we have seen all year, and Democrats will be relieved that Senator Gordon Smith is as vulnerable as they thought. He is under 50% against both his Democratic opponents: 48% to 39% against Jeff Merkley and 45% to 39% against Steve Novick. Adding to this, both Democrats are huge unknowns (67% and 78% of voters are unfamiliar with them, respectively), so they certainly have a lot of room to grow.

• Maine

And then comes Maine, and the third poll in two weeks that has Susan Collins with a massive lead against Democratic challenger Rep. Tom Allen... and more importantly, above 50%. She is ahead of Allen 55% to 38%, and posts a strong favorability rating: 48% to 25%. Allen cannot even rely on the hope voters don't know him, as only 11% are unfamiliar with him.

All in all, Democrats lead in four races, are tied in another, have made a sixth vulnerable and have a long way to go in the last -- and this does not even account for possible hot races in NC, AK or KY.