Tuesday polls: Obama pulls ahead in OH and is competitive in NC, while Franken and McConnell are in trouble

Finally, after weeks of being bombarded by polls from New York, Kansas and Washington State, someone thought to poll the presidential race in Ohio – and it brings welcome news to Obama’s campaign:

• Public Policy Polling released its first survey in quite a while and it shows Barack Obama trouncing John McCain 50% to 39%. As usual, Obama is weaker among registered Dems (73%) than McCain is among registered Republicans (83%). Obama is leading by 13% among independents, however. As for potential VP picks, respondents seem more inclined to be swayed by Hillary Clinton than by their governor Ted Strickland.
• Update: A commenter points out that this survey was in the field on the 17th and 18th of May. This is very strange indeed, as it represents more than a 3 week delay... Did PPP not even poll Hillary Clinton against McCain then? At the time, most pollsters did.
  

A long series of polls showing Obama weak in Ohio or at least significantly underperforming Clinton (including PPP's most recent survey released in March, repeated waves of Quinnipiac's polls and Rasmussen's May poll) was interrupted by SUSA's showing Obama comfortably ahead of McCain mid-May. PPP's poll is the first since then. Given how much care the Obama campaign is putting in cultivating alternative electoral maps that do would not require victory in Florida and Ohio, the state's 20 electoral votes almost seem like they would be a bonus that would all but ensure the Democrat's victory -- though with McCain's apparent strength in Michigan, it is essential for Democrats to contest Ohio to offset a potential disaster in Michigan.

The day's other important presidential poll is the much-discussed ABC/Washignton Post national poll:

• Barack Obama leads 48% to 42%, a margin that is little moved since ABC's previous poll, suggesting there has been little movement since the Democrat wrapped up his nomination. The WaPo is emphasizing the fact that the two candidates are tied among independents.
• Another national poll, released by Cook/RT Strategies, shows Obama leading 44% to 40%.

Last week, after the NBC polled found Obama leading by 6%, I criticized the obsession with pointing out that Kerry had never led in NBC polls in 2004 and that Bush had never beeh ahead by that much either. I pointed out that, in many other polls, Kerry had a clear lead in the early summer and that Bush was repeatedly ahead by 9-11% in September. The ABC poll is a case in point: Now, everyone is pointing out that John Kerry had the same lead in an ABC poll taken at this time four years ago. So which is it? Is an Obama lead significant because Kerry never led or significant because he was the favorite? It is important to look at a pollster's trendlines because of methodology and turnout models, but the pollster-specific comparisons of surveys that are four years apart does not seem to me to be particularly helpful.

What is somewhat significant in recently released national polls is that predictions by strategists from both camps that Obama could open a double-digit lead in the weeks after becoming the nominee have not come true, though the Democrat is consistently ahead. But it is the electoral college, of course, that will determine the winner and two important state polls were released today besides Ohio’s:

• In North Carolina, polls are now consistently showing McCain’s leading hovering around the margin of error. The latest Civitas poll finds him barely ahead 45% to 41%, with Bob Barr polling in at 2%. Last month, McCain was up by 5%.


• In Minnesota, SUSA finds Obama struggling to pull ahead, coming in at 47% against 46% for McCain. He was ahead by 5% in a poll taken two weeks ago, though that swing is within the margin of error. The big difference is the flip of the indie vote.

It is difficult to imagine North Carolina flipping if a state like Virginia does not, underscoring how close to a blow-out victory Obama would get if he keeps NC this close through November. As for Minnesota, so much for my speculations that Obama might be putting away the “Dukakis 5,” though it’s worth pointing out that most other recent MN surveys finding a more comfortable lead for Obama. But it is SUSA’s Senate poll from this state that has got to worry Democrats:

• Norm Coleman has opened up a significant lead against Al Franken, 52% to 40%, though this is stable from last month's poll that showed the Democrat trailing 52% to 42%. Franken loses the independent vote 60% to 33%.
  
• If Jesse Ventura jumps in the race (it is the second time this week this match-up is polled), Franken trails 41% to 31% with 23% for Ventura. In a sure sign of trouble for Franken, Mike Ciresi, a Democrat who dropped out of the race in February, polls slightly better than him against Coleman: 50% to 40%.

• Also today, Rasmussen released a survey of Alaska's Senate race, finding Ted Stevens surviving 46% to 44% against Mark Begich, who was narrowly ahead 47% to 45% last month. Other surveys have found larger leads for Begich.

Al Franken has been suffering through months of bad press, as controversies over tax disclosures, a 2000 essay in Playboy and a 1995 joke on rape erupted in recent weeks. Yet, polls found little movement in this (very often) polled race. But SUSA's survey is obviously bad news for the Democratic challenger as it goes along the narrative of a sinking campaign. That Franken polls roughly at the same level as a candidate who has not been campaigning for 5 months suggests that he is now underperforming the level of a generic Democrat.

Update: SUSA just released a fascinating new poll from Kentucky:

• In the presidential race, John McCain leads Obama 53% to 41%. This is a huge progression from a May poll in which Obama trailed by 24%. Look no further than the vote of registered Democrat, Obama has gone from... 48% to 59%! Still a very low number, but one that is now in line with what you would expect in Kentucky.
• In the Senate race, however, Mitch McConnell is only ahead of Bruce Lunsford 50% to 46%!

I for one have long remained unconvinced that Lunsford would be a real threat to McConnell, and given how nightmarish he would be for progressives, it is certainly my top wish among GOP-held seats. But this now the second poll that finds Lunsford to be very competitive and there is no doubt that unseating the Minority Leader would be a huge upset. Given that the DSCC is looking for second and third-tier seats to make competitive to have a shot at 60, this is not the last we will hear of Kentucky.

Senate: NRSC's move towards giving up VA and NM, plus a variety of polls

Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, has been setting a lot of expectations lately. After declaring that his goal for the year was to prevent the Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof majority (and thus limit the loss to eight seats), Ensign has now shifted to a wiser refrain: It will be good news, he explained, if the GOP only loses three seats in November. But at this same lunch with reporters, Ensign made some news by taking the first step towards giving up on Virginia and New Mexico. "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win," he said.

An NRSC decision that a race should no longer merits investments would go a long way towards sealing a seat's fate, for both Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore will need the help of the national party to keep up with the momentum that is carrying their Democratic opponents. In 2006, the NRSC's decision to pull out of Ohio effectively handed the election to Sharrod Brown who coasted to an unexpectedly easy victory over the incumbent Republican.

Another interesting tidbit in Ensign's comments is his list of the 10 most competitive races. Ensign includes North Carolina and Maine and does not even make a stab at spin by putting in New Jersey (though Collins is polling better than Lautenberg at this point). Yet, there is no sign of Mississippi! Despite the fact that (1) Ronnie Musgrove has been leading Senator Wicker in a number of polls, (2) despite predictions of increased black turnout, (3) despite the fact that party affiliations will not be printed on the ballot and (4) despite Travis Childers's victory in MS-01 last month, Mississippi continues to be treated as a long shot by most analysts. This attitude is indeed not exclusive to Ensign. Even Chuck Schumer rated MS a third-tier race in a recent interview. What more does Musgrove need to do to prove that this Southern special election is among the hottest races of the country?

Meanwhile, 5 new Senate polls were released in the past two days, only two of which concern competitive races. Here are these polls, in the order in which the contests are ordered in my latest Senate rankings:

• In Minnesota, Norm Coleman edges out Al Franken 48% to 45%, a similar margin than his 2% lead last month.
• Rasmussen also polled a three way match-up including former Governor Jesse Ventura. Coleman leads 39% to 32% to Franken and 24% to Ventura, who (as is expected) takes votes from the challenger.

• In Oregon, Jeff Merkley got no bounce from his primary victory as he now trails incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith 47% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Last month, Smith was ahead by 3% -- though Democrats ought to be satisfied that they are keeping Smith under 50%.

• In Kansas, Cooper & Secrest Associates released a poll of the Senate race that is the third consecutive survey showing Pat Roberts leading his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Slattery, by 12% and the first one in which he dips under the 50% mark, leading 48% to 36%.

• In Iowa, Senator Harkin is leading challenger Christopher Reed 53% to 37% and posting a favorability rating of 59% in a new Rasmussen survey.
  

• In Michigan, finally, no surprises in the latest Rasmussen poll that has Senator Carl Levin leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 55% to 30%. Hoogendyk is largely unknown but Levin has a strong favorability rating, making him an unlikely target.
  

Of these 5 races, Minnesota and Oregon are the two interesting ones. Despite the repeated polls showing some potential for Slattery and despite the GOP's (thwarted) determination early this cycle to field a credible challenger to Harkin, these two races have a long way to go before joining the list of competitive races, though the DSCC might hope that Kansas Democrats will be more enthused than usual if Governor Sebelius is tapped on Obama's ticket.

In Minnesota, despite the media firestorm that has recently been surrounding Al Franken years as a comedian and the unexpected difficulties that popped up on his way to the DFL's endorsement, the Democratic challenger is holding strong, suggesting that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent and on the Republican Party. With Minnesota showing signs of moving back to its solidly Democratic roots, Coleman will remain endangered and he should worry if he could not open up a bigger margin after such a favorable month of press coverage. As for the Jesse Ventura question, the former Governor has declared that he will make up his mind at the last minute. The filing deadline is mid-July so we will have to wait a few more weeks to see whether Ventura will wreak havoc in this senatorial race.

Senate: Ensign raises possibility of fillibuster-proof Senate, though polls find some unexepected good news for GOP

In one of the most stunning Senate developments of the year, Senator Ensign is now spinning a loss of eight senatorial seats as a relief for his party! As Ensign displaces his objective to making sure there are 41 GOP Senators remaining in January 2009, does that mean he is ready to give up on a number of contested seat to build up a firewall of seats that can still be saved, only focusing to protect incumbents like Cornyn of Texas, Dole of North Carolina, Wicker of Mississippi and McConnell of Kentucky? Sure, Ensign probably only intended to make an argument for Sen. Chambliss's reelection in that interview, but the NRSC's chairman should be more careful about the expectations he sets; such gloomy forecasts risk heightening the panic of congressional Republicans and make it even harder for the NRSC to fundraise.

It is ironic that Senate Republicans received some race good news on the day news Ensign's of comments spread. Of the three surveys released yesterday, only one brought worrisome news to the NRSC:

• In Alaska, a Hellenthal and Associates poll conducted in early May found Mark Begich leading Senator Ted Stevens 51% to 44%.
  

• In Texas, Rasmussen finds Sen. Cornyn leading Rick Noriega 52% to 35%. The previous poll, released last month, found Cornyn ahead 47% to 43%. That margin had been confirmed by a Research 2000 poll released the following week.

• Finally, a shocking Rasmussen poll from New Jersey suggests that Republicans might have a second competitive seat as Frank Lautenberg is in a toss-up when matched up to Republican Dick Zimmer, 45% to 44%.
  

Alaska is one of the Democrats' top pick-up opportunities, despite the fact that Stevens is a giant enough in Alaska politics that he should never be ruled out. Texas's status as a first-tier race was never convincing so it is not a surprise to see Cornyn up by such a large margin in this poll, though it is true that two back-to-back polls showed Noriega's potential to make this a competitive race. Five months out, he has a lot of work to do to soften Cornyn before truly testing his vulnerabilities.

As for New Jersey, races here are always fascinating to follow as Republicans often seem on the verge of scoring a big upset and toppling the incumbent and spend a lot of money, only to see the race slip out of their grip. This is what happened in the 2004 presidential race and the 2006 senatorial race and you can bet some Democrats are not that unhappy about this poll, hoping it might push the GOP to invest heavily in Zimmer. Just as Kean in 2006, Republicans would have a much better chance of finally winning a statewide race if the national environment was not so disastrous for them. They will have a compelling case to make that Lautenberg is no longer fit for office (he is, after all, 86 years old).

Finally, in Minnesota, Al Franken launched his general election campaign by attacking Norm Coleman and trying to link him to President Bush. Franken's strategy is simple, especially after the recent controversies that have surrounded him about his comedian years: Make this race a referendum about the incumbent and his ties to the Republican Party. At his rally yesterday, Franken denounced the "Bush-Coleman recession." Coleman's counter-strategy is already crystal-clear as well: Make this a referendum about Franken instead, and the DFL-endorsed candidate is polarizing enough that Coleman does have an opening to focus the conversation on his opponent.

Another important factor to look for in Minnesota will be how unified the party becomes around Franken. Senator Klochubar, who had denounced Franken's allegedly pornographic essay two weeks ago, spoke at his rally yesterday. But Rep. McCollum, Franken's most insist critic in the state delegation, was not.

Down-the-ballot: Franken wins DFL endorsement, AK-AL gets heated

Mike Ciresi must be regretting that he dropped out of the Minnesota Senate race for he certainly could have benefited from the series of bad news Al Franken has been suffering through. More, in any case, than Professor and activist Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer managed to as he attempted to make the most of the doubts many harbor towards Franken. The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party convention was held yesterday and today but Nelson-Pallmeyer did not carry enough weight to truly endanger Franken's hold on the nomination. In his speech at the convention, Franken sought to address the criticism head-on in an effort to convince delegates he remained electable in November: "It kills me that things I said and wrote sent a message to some of my friends in this room and people in this state that they can’t count on me to be a champion for women, a champion for all Minnesotans." Franken was also helped by the backing of the DFL's Feminist Caucus, which came days after Planned Parenthood blasted Franken for his sexism.

The former comedian was endorsed on the first ballot by 62% of delegates. Franken now moves on to the primary, organized in September. The candidate who is endorsed at the DFL convention traditionally enjoys an easy primary ride as rival candidates typically withdraw and respect the convention's endorsement. Nelson-Pallmeyer did just that today as he announced his support for Franken after the result of the vote were announced. When he was still running, Mike Ciresi had also pledged to respect the will of the convention.

Thus, Franken just took a decisive step towards representing his party against Senator Norm Coleman. It is however technically still possible for a Democrat to file against him in the September primary, and the probability of that could increase if the GOP keeps up its slow trickle of oppo research and if figures of the Democratic universe (like Rep. McCollum) continue to criticize Franken and perhaps even hold back from fully supporting him. Yet, such a candidate would face very long odds given that it is already late in the game, that Franken has raised millions of dollars that would go a long way towards defeating any underfunded primary rival and that Franken is likely to have the backing of the state establishment after today's convention. With the Coleman-Franken race now much more set, we will soon see whether Republicans can successfully continue to put Franken on the defensive and whether they have many more aces up their sleeve.

Meanwhile, the Republican primary in Alaska's sole House race is getting heated as Club for Growth has endorsed Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell in his challenge to incumbent Rep. Don Young. Club for Growth, which has enjoyed a good record in primary races this year, claimed Young is the "poster child for what has gone wrong with the Republican Party in Washington” while Parnell is a "solid conservative." Club for Growth can do a lot for a candidate in a primary race and the conservative organization is especially committed to defeating an incumbent or two every cycle to bolster its reputation as a force to be reckoned with and to signal to moderate Republicans that their days are numbered (though the two most high-profile primary challenges the Club has funded, against Sen. Specter and Sen. Chaffee, both narrowly fell short). The Club's support should ensure that Parnell has the funds and organization to make his challenge to Young truly competitive.

This is actually worrisome news for Democrats. While an incumbent facing a primary and a seat opening up are generally good news for the opposing party, this is a case in which the Democrats' hopes of picking-up the district are largely related to Young's ethical troubles and the corruption allegations he is being investigated for. Given that Alaska is a very Republican state, Parnell would start the general election favored if he were to defeat Young as he would not have the baggage that has made the current incumbent an underdog against a very solid Democratic candidate.

Down-ballot: Franken continues to sink in MN, GOP drowns in NY-13

Al Franken's Minnesota campaign is not going well. Facing a shrewd incumbent with the reputation of a solid campaigner, Franken had no room for error. Yet, his campaign started tanking with revelations of Franken's tax problems and with the controversy over his 2000 allegedly-pornographic essay in Playboy, a controversy that led a Democratic congresswoman state that she was not sure she could support Franken's campaign. Now, it is the turn of Planned Parenthood to blast Franken for his 2000 essay in an e-mail which explained that it was difficult to see how the organization could endorse Franken and that they deplored "the misogynist remarks of some of these statements and find them degrading to women."

In parallel, a second controversy has now erupted over a joke related to rape that Franken helped write on SNL in 1995 (visit that link for full explanation); the skit did not ended up airing as it received weak laughs at a dress rehearsal. The state GOP, which acknowledged having had the tape in hand for a while but only releasing it now, was ready to launch an immediate offensive as Republicans are blasting the former comedian. And Rep. McCollum, the Democratic congresswoman whose criticism had already made news last week, used the day's news to distance herself from Franken even further. "It is appalling that anyone could characterize rape, a violent and horrible crime, as a joke," she said.

Given the slow tickle of stories about Franken's years as a comedian, there is very little doubt that the GOP has a whole series of similar scandals to use against the Democratic candidate. After all, Franken was a comedian and skit writers for years and his name is sure to be involved in many similar stories. Worried that it will be impossible to mount any sort of credible general election campaign under the threat of the GOP unleashing a new chapter of their apparently formidable oppo research file, Democrats are reportedly now considering their options besides Franken, including Mike Ciresi's possible jump back in the race.

Al Franken's prodigious fundraising abilities will be hard to match by any replacement candidate, not to mention that his early start was one of his main assets. After all, Senator Coleman was never going to be an easy incumbent for Democrats to defeat. But for a candidate who just two months ago was receiving sustained praise for a strong transition from comedy to politics, the change of tone in Franken's coverage is brutal. Franken's main task has always been the need to be taken seriously, and the ease with which Republicans are transforming him back into a goofy figure leaves him few paths to being elected.

Meanwhile, the saga of NY-13 continues to get more absurd after a month of unexpected developments: First, there was Vito Fossella's arrest for drunk driving followed by the revelation that he was taking his mistress on taxpayer-funded congressional trips and Fossela's subsequent retirement, the two top Republicans from the districts declining to run and the Staten Island GOP's stunning decision to endorse the candidacy of Francis H. Powers, the island's largely unknown former representative on the MTA board. Meanwhile, Democrats got one of their strongest candidate in the race.

As if this was not enough to get Democrats confident that they would pick up the last New York City district that was under Republican control, Francis H. Powers's son (who, to make matters more complicated, has the same first name: Francis M. Powers) announced today that he would run for Congress too as the Libertarian nominee! His objective? Defeating the Republican Party and, as he explained himself, "A vote for my father is a vote for the straight Republican ticket." He denied that he was doing this to get back at his father, though he acknowledged that he was motivated by the opportunity to give the Libertarian Party a wide audience by creating the spectacle of a son running against his father.

Now, there is the possibility that the son will not make it to the ballot as he needs to collect 3,000 signatures. But if he does this is sure to prove very distracting to the Republican candidate's campaign; it would have been so under any circumstances, but the fact that the two have the same name would render the situation impossible to follow. As for the entertainment-value of this controversy and how much Francis H. Powers will be unable to escape constant talk of this development, his priceless reaction to his son's announcement sets the tone: "I've tried very hard for many years to help my son. Unfortunately, he's rejected everyone's help to live a healthy lifestyle. Regardless of whether he wants to run for Congress, I still stand ready to help him move his life in a positive direction."

Lifestyle, really? The young Powers is a married man with children, not a drug addict currently in a rehab clinic, as his father's statement would imply. The Staten Island Advance provides an explanation: "A Republican source said that Powers was referring to his son's 'carefree' lifestyle in the music business."

Senate: Mississippi battleground and Franken troubles

If Democrats end up losing the Senate race in Mississippi, they can blame the Mississippi Supreme Court's unfair decision to allow Governor Barbour to not call a March special election to replace Trent Lott. Indeed, while the state remains staunchly Republican, last month's special election in MS-01 confirmed that the GOP will need the increased turnout of a presidential election to resolve the enthusiasm gap. Furthermore, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is almost polling like an incumbent right now. He is better-known than newly-appointed Senator Wicker, a rare situation for a challenger to be in.

Rasmussen's new Senate polls from the two Mississippi races confirms that the Musgrove-Wicker showdown will be one of the top contests this cycle, and one that could actually get Democrats close to a 60 seat majority:

• Musgrove edges out Wicker 47% to 46%. Both men have a 49% favorability rating, while 18% are not sure of their impression of Wicker (versus only 9% for Musgrove).
  

• In the state's other Senate race, Senator Cochran is crushing challenger Erik Fleming 58% to 35%, as expected.

• Note that in Rasmussen's poll of the Alabama Senate race, there are also no surprises as GOP Senator Sessions crushes Vivian Figures 62% to 29%.
  

Cochran seat was long watched as there were mounting rumors that the longtime Senator might retire, but it is Trent Lott that unexpectedly jumped out, making the special election for his seat the more interesting ones and essentially giving Cochran a free pass.

Meanwhile, Al Franken continues to be in trouble in the Minnesota Senate race continues. After the controversy over Franken's tax return that the GOP is already looking to exploit mercilessly in the months ahead, it is now Franken's past writings that are coming back to haunt him as an essay Franken wrote in Playboy in 2000 has now been unearthed. Democratic congressmen are now openly worrying that Franken could drag them down because of past writings from his satirical/comical days. Rep. Betty McCollum is now criticizing the essay as "indefensible" and "pornographic," worried that it will hurt the state's entire Democratic slate. Explaining that her phone is ringing "off the hook," McCollum revealed that she was not sure whether she would support Franken in the general election!

The Politico quotes a Democratic operative as saying that, "We’re looking at having these pornographic writings tagged onto Democrats. That doesn’t seem to be a good strategy to expand our majorities in the House." Ouch. This is certainly not enough to sink Franken's candidacy -- after all, Minnesota did elect Jesse Ventura in the 1990s and Jim Webb survived revelations about graphic writings in Virginia in 2006 -- but given that his main challenge is to demonstrate that he is a "serious" candidate, Porn-O-Rama is strengthening doubts that were already lingering about the Democrat.

After a year of admiring articles praising him for a successful transition from comic to politician, the tide appears to have turned. Yet, the DFL's convention is in a month, and it is difficult to see how Franken could not be chosen ever since rival Mike Ciresi abruptly dropped out of the race. Also, it is important to keep things in perspective: Despite the increasing criticism Franken is facing, he is holding his own in polls. The latest survey found him trailing by only 2%.

Update: Late-night Senate news from Texas in the form of a poll.

• GOP firm Baselice & Associates finds Senator Cornyn leading Rick Noriega 49% to 34%.
  

While the incumbent is under 50%, that is a much more reassuring margin than the back-to-back 47% to 43% leads he posted in Rasmussen and Research 2000 earlier in May. Despite those numbers, I had left the race in 12th position in my latest Senate rankings to reflect the enormity of the task that lies ahead of Noriega. He must not only rely on an environment that is toxic to Republicans but soften up Cornyn much more than he is now to score what would be a big upset.

Senate shocker: Lunsford could make it a race in Kentucky

And just like that, Kentucky is back in the continually growing group of competitive Senate seats. A week after Bruce Lunsford won the Democratic primary to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Rasmussen released a poll that challenges the conventional wisdom of this race:

• Lunsford leads McConnell 49% to 44%, despite McConnell's satisfying favorability rating, at 52%.

Many of you might remember the series of polls released in the fall that showed McConnell surprisingly vulnerable to challenges by a number of Democrats, starting with Rep. Chandler, state Attorney General Stumbo and state Auditor Crit Luallen. But as all of them declined to run, McConnell's suddenly appeared much more safe. The DSCC encouraged Lunsford to run, but he was generally deemed a second-to-third tier candidate. But perhaps Lunsford can use to his benefit what until now were challenges to overcome; the fact that he has donated money to McConnell in the past and that he supported Republican Ernie Fletcher's election bid in 2003 are certainly proof of Lunsford's shady Democratic credentials and conservative roots and those can help him get elected in a state like Kentucky.

Also, Lunsford will self-fund some of his candidacy (which is one of the main reasons the DSCC pushed him to run and helped him in the primary). McConnell has a war chest of almost $8 million already, and he aired his first ads in the fall to address some of his vulnerabilities. Lunsford's ability to pay for some ads from his own pockets will be critical for Democrats to exploit their opening here.

In response, the McConnell campaign released an internal poll showing the Senator ahead, a poll also taken after the primary to account for any bounce received by the Democrat:

• In this poll, McConnell is leading Lunsford 50% to 39%, and enjoys 57% approval rating.

This is certainly more reassuring numbers than those released by Rasmussen, but there is a reason the campaign chose not to release them until Rasmussen put them on the defensive: It's not a very good result either. For the Senate Minority Leader and longtime fixture of Kentucky politics to be on the brink of vulnerability (the 50% threshold) is cause for worry, especially when running against a candidate who does not have the popularity or recognition that Chandler or Stumbo might have had. Add to this the fact that internal polls are always to be taken with a grain of salt, and McConnell's effort to lower Republican concerns cannot be regarded as fully successful.

With the Democrats expanding the Senate map in every direction, Republicans believed it had made Kentucky safe. But the Rasmussen poll (combined with the GOP's internal poll that confirms that this will be a tight race to the finish) dashes those hopes. It also strengthens the Democrats' argument that they have a path to a 60-seat Senate majority this year. Let's review the list of Republican-held seats in which a recent poll has shown the Democrat ahead: VA, CO, NH, NM, AK, MN (not since February), MS, NC and now KY. In addition, Merkley and Noriega are polling within 5 points in Oregon and Texas. That's 11 races right there, and we aren't even counting states in which the GOP looks good for now but in which the DSCC is determined to make a move (Maine, and Oklahoma).

Also today, a new Rasmussen poll from Minnesota confirms that the Coleman-Franken showdown will be one of the most entertaining and tightest of the year:

• Coleman now leads his Democratic challenger 47% to 45%, down from a 7% lead last month. The two men have comparable favorability ratings.

Franken has had a particularly rough few months, as the GOP and the press have relentlessly hammered him for his tax problems. A wave of polls showed him ahead in February but he lost ground since then, but this poll suggests that he might be recovering now. We will wait for other polls to confirm any trends.

Meanwhile, in Montana, a new Mason-Dixon Senate poll, the first of the state's Senate race, confirms that Democratic Senator Baucus is safe even though his state is likely to vote for McCain in the fall. He leads his challengers by 35% or more, with at least 60% of the vote. In better news for Republicans, M-D also found GOP Rep. Rehlberg, who represents the entire state, to be in good shape for his re-election battle despite some Democrats believing that they can put his seat in play. He leads probable Dem nominee Jim Hunt 52% to 20%, flirting with the 50% line but it will be difficult for Hunt, who is largely unknown, to catch up.

Down-the-ballot: Yet another GOP recruitment failure, tight races in MS and OR (Update: and NC)

A significant number of down-the-ballot news this morning, but to start with don't forget to check my newly updated Senate rankings. House ratings should follow as quickly as possible. The day's first development concerns NY-13, where Republicans are hitting yet another recruitment wall. Rep. Vito Fossella's decision to retire in November created yet another open seat headache for the GOP in a Democratic-leaning seat in a Democratic-leaning state. It is hardly surprising, then, that potential Republican candidates would be reluctant to attempt a run here.

Yesterday, Staten Island DA Dan Donovan, who was recently re-elected with 68% of the vote in a borough-wide vote that covers a large portion of the NY-13 district, took himself out of the running. Donovan had been heavily courted by the national party and he was the clear favorite to take the Republican spot on the November ballot. Donovan did not cite any specific reasons but his desire to continue working as a DA to complete the tasks he has started.

The road thus just got that much tougher for Republicans to hold on to this seat. They will now turn to state Senator Andrew Lanza but recruiting state senators is not what New York's Republican Party wants to be doing considering that their majority in that chamber -- their last seat of power in the Empire State -- hangs by a thread.

Meanwhile, Republicans are continuing their offensive against Al Franken in Minnesota's Senate race. After Franken's self-induced debacle over taxes, which has already considerably weakened the challenger, the GOP is now doing what we knew they would do sooner or later: Use Franken's comedian past as opposition research material. I am doubtful this kind of attack can work, as shown by Sen. Allen's attempt to use Jim Webb's strangely graphic novels against him in the 2006 campaign. That effort probably backfired, and as long as Franken can portray himself as a credible candidate that ought to be taken seriously, the press will continue marveling at the comedian-to-politician transition. In further news from this race, former Governor Jesse Ventura is now considering jumping in as an independent, in what would obviously make the contest wild and unpredictable.

Furthermore, we got a series of polls from Senate and House races:

• First, Research 2000 polled the Mississippi Senate race and found Senator Wicker leading Ronnie Musgrove 46% to 42%. A DSCC poll a few days ago found Musgrove up 8% and with a better favorability rating.


• Second, the DSCC released yet another internal poll, this one from the Oregon Senate race. It shows Gordon Smith leading Jeff Merkley 45% to 42%, and the poll was taken before the May 20th primary, so any post-primary bounce for Merkley would not be recorded here.


• Update: Third, a conservative institute, the Civitas Group, just released a poll showing Elizabeth Dole ahead by only 2% against Kay Hagan, 45% to 43%. One more proof that the NC-Sen race is much more competitive than was thought just 3 weeks ago.


• Update #2: A Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire race confirms that Sununu is the most endangered incumbent this cycle, as he continues to trail his challenger Jeanne Shaheen, 50% to 43%.

Both results are satisfactory for Democrats as they confirm that these two races are toss-ups heading into November. The OR numbers are an internal poll but they correspond to the latest Rasmussen poll of the race. Also, MS polls are likely to show very differing results over the next 6 months because the margin would vary widely if you adjust the proportion of white and black voters by just a point or two. If Obama heads the ticket pollsters will have to decide how much to weigh black turnout, and those decisions will impact the numbers that are released.

Finally, two -- rare and very exciting -- new House polls were released:

• In CO-04, an internal poll for the Markey campaign shows Rep. Musgrove leading Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 46% to 42%.

• In MO-06, another race that is on everyone's toss-up list shows reassuring news for GOP incumbent Sam Graves, who leads Kay Barnes, the former Mayor of Kansas City, 49% to 39%. Barnes' support among registered Democrat is (still?) weak.

The Graves campaign attracted a lot of attention last week by hitting Barnes for a fundraising trip she took to San Fransisco with Nancy Pelosi and aired a truly remarkably over-the-top ad that seems to come right out of SNL's ad-parody efforts. The ad is too recent to be said to have have influenced the SUSA poll and it will be interesting to see how it impacts the race. Barnes is already out with a brutal response ad, but here's the original spot:

Monday polls: First VP tests, and Obama's big Oregon lead

The Democratic Party's unification process continued today. After Senator Byrd this morning, Warren Buffet endorsed Barack Obama; he had announced for a long time that he would not endorse before the end of the primaries and had made appearances with both candidates. Meanwhile, Politico reported that Patti Solis Doyle -- yes that Solis Doyle -- is in talks with the Obama campaign about joining their general election efforts; sure, she appears to be a long time friend of David Axelrod, but it is nonetheless a blow to Clinton that even the woman who coined the term "Hillaryland" is now preparing for her loss.

In other words, everyone but the Clinton campaign is acting like the primaries are over and that Obama has become the presumptive nominee. And that's exactly what makes tomorrow's Election Day -- and the two campaign's dual spin -- so surreal.

The most dramatic evidence of the shifting dynamics of the Clinton-Obama race was provided by Gallup's tracking poll where Obama suddenly and dramatically opened his biggest lead yet, forcing Clinton under the 40% bar for the first time. He is now ahead 55% to 39%. Ironically, Clinton progressed in the general election, now ahead of McCain by 4% while Obama is ahead by 1%. Meanwhile, three new primary polls show a much more comfortable Obama lead in Oregon than Suffolk implied this morning:

• SUSA shows Obama ahead 55% to 42% in Oregon. His lead comes entirely from a 28% lead among men, as the two are tied among women.

• PPP finds Obama to be ahead 56% to 38%. Obama is at 60% among those who have already voted.
  

• In Kentucky, SUSA confirms that Clinton will triumph. She is ahead 62% to 31% -- so Obama can expect to do much better than in West Virginia.
  

Don't forget that Oregon's voting is conducted entirely through mail, and voters have until tomorrow to return their ballots. So most of the votes are already in. Also, a huge victory in Oregon could not be enough for Obama to avoid the embarrassment of Wednesday morning headlines; Oregon voting stops at 11pm ET and while the state should be called fairly soon the size of Obama's victory could not be known until after press time. Also, Obama's speech in Iowa should come before counting starts in Oregon.

Also today, SUSA released a new poll of New Mexico testing potential vice-presidential match-ups! The numbers show a lot of discrepancy, way more than any vice-presidential pick would ever impact any ticket, and a lot of it is due to name recognition at this stage, but it is still a fun exercise:

• McCain and Obama are (conveniently) tied at 44% in a straight match-up. Obama gets 67% of the Democratic vote and only 51% of the Hispanic vote -- a very weak showing in a key constituency that Obama must do well in.
  
• Obama prevails when paired up with Edwards as he improves his share of the Dem vote: He leads McCain-Huckabee by 3, McCain-Romney by 6 and McCain-Pawlenty by 9 (Pawlenty suffers from an obvious lack of name recognition).
• But Democrats do badly with most other VP tickets: In the match-ups with Pawlently alone (useful to compare people with comparably low name ID), the GOP leads by 7 if Obama picks Sebelius, 4 if he picks Rendell.
  
• A very interesting lesson is what happens if Obama picks Republican Chuck Hagel, as his share of the Demcoratic vote drops dramatically. He only gets 52% (!) of the Democratic vote in a match-up with McCain-Pawlently, for instance. The parallel lesson is that McCain is a bit weaker if he picks Lieberman as his vice-president.
  

Finally, we also got a Senate poll today from Minnesota, in the race that has possibly been polled more than any other in the past few months:

• Senator Coleman is in single-digits but above 50 percent, leading Al Franken 51% to 44% in the Star Tribune poll.
  

The article emphasizes that Franken looks to have been hurt by the tax scandal that has engulfed his campaign recently. He should find a way to deal with it soon, because Coleman is a good enough politician that he will make sure to use it relentlessly in the coming months. There is no question that Franken looked much better in late February/March and that Coleman has been regaining strength ever since Franken looked to have closed in on his party's nod.

Week-end polls: Democrats up big in NYT poll; are Sens. Dole and Cornyn vulnerable?

After a quite Sunday in which I chose to only reflect on the victory of Don Cazayoux, it is time to delve right back in the Democratic primaries; after all, polls in Indiana and North Carolina open in 24 hours. We are likely to receive a deluge of polls from the May 6th states today, so let me get Sunday's polls out of the way before the political day starts, starting with Zogby's latest round of tracking polls:

• Zogby continues to find the two upcoming primaries to be remarkably stable. In North Carolina, Obama is now ahead by 8%, 48% to 40% -- a one percent tightening in the past 24 hours.

• In Indiana, Zogby has Obama narrowly ahead once again, 44% to 42%. Zogby is the only institute to find Clinton trailing at this point.
  
• Clinton only leads 46% to 39% among white voters with 15% undecided; her margin among white voters in other polls is much larger, suggesting that a significant portion of these undecided voters could be a reservoir of votes for her. Whether they go to the polls as they did in Pennsylvania or stay at home will determine Tuesday's results.

Clinton is managing to hold on to a single-digit margin in North Carolina -- a gap that is confirmed by most other polls that have been released over the past week; that would do her no good, however, if she cannot prevail in Indiana. Keep in mind that most of the latest polls we have seen from both of these states were taken during or in the immediate aftermath of Wright's second round of appearances and of Obama's denouncing his former pastor. Whether these events are continuing to impact voters or whether they have already faded will determine whether last week's polls (which were moving towards Clinton) will remain relevant today and tomorrow. If they do not, Clinton could be in trouble as expectations have shifted due to last week's good polling results. For now, the only indication we have is that Obama has retaken the lead he had lost on April 27th in Gallup's tracking poll.

Meanwhile, New York Times/CBS released its second poll in two weeks and found both Democrats expanding their general election lead to stunning margins:

• Obama leads McCain 52% to 41% while Clinton is ahead 53% to 41%.
  

• 60% of all voters and 68% of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Obama handled the Wright situation; 9% of Democrats said that Wright would "matter a great deal" to them should Obama become the nominee.

While Democrats are more used to leading than trailing over the past few months, such a comfortable margin is certainly not in line with the conventional wisdom -- nor is it confirmed by other polls taken in the past few weeks. Democrats will understandably take the survey as a morale booster but until other polls suggest that the Democratic nominee has emerged with a clear edge keep in mind rules about margins of error and statistical variations.

Finally, three very interesting Senate polls to reoprt this morning:

• First, SUSA polled the Minnesota Senate race and found Norm Coleman maintaining a double-digit lead against Al Franken, 52% to 42%.
  

• Second, a Research 2000 poll in North Carolina finds Elizabeth Dole struggling to open a lead against both her Democratic rivals; she is ahead 48% to 41% against Kay Hagan and 47% to 37% against Jim Neal. The Democratic primary is Tuesday.

• Third, Rasmussen published a stunning survey of the Texas Senate race, finding Senator John Cornyn leading his challenger Rick Noriega 47% to 43% only.
  

After a series of poll in mid-February showed a toss-up race in Minnesota, Rasmussen and SUSA have recently found Coleman to be back in a comfortable lead over the past two months. This is paradoxically also the time in which Franken pretty much secured his party's nomination. Note that there are some weird crosstabs in this poll: Coleman gets 99% of the GOP vote (which seems an unlikely proposition) and Franken gets 67% of the Demoratic vote, leaving him far behind despite a 24% lead among independents.

It is surprising to see Elizabeth Dole kept under 50% and in single-digits while Coleman enjoys a double-digit margin in a high-profile race against a well-funded opponent. Polls have disagreed on how vulnerable Dole is to a challenge this fall but Democrats have to be frustrated that they did not do a better recruitment operation here, as all the candidates that could have made the race really competitive declined to run. We shall know more about what to expect from this race once Democrats select their nominee tomorrow.

As for Texas, the Cornyn-Noriega race is considered a sleeper by Democratic activists but even they would recognize that it is at best a second tier race right now. There is little confirmation besides this poll that the incumbent is this vulnerable (more than Coleman and Dole, according to this wave of poll); previous surveys have found Cornyn leading by double-digits without beign able to open up a commanding lead. If Democrats manage to just make one of either North Carolina or Texas competitive, it would already be a huge and unexpected accomplishment.

Thursday polls: Indiana is a rare toss-up

We have seen remarkably few polls from Indiana so far but Research 2000 sought to correct that anomaly today by releasing a survey from the Hoosier state:

• Obama edges out Clinton 48% to 47%, a slight improvement from the previous R2000 poll that had Clinton leading by 3%.
• In the general election, McCain beats both Democrats but by margins that are narrower than those Bush enjoyed in 2000 and 2004. He leads Obama 51% to 43% and Clinton 52% to 41%.

• Update: Selzer & Co (which is I believe the same pollster that conducts the Des Moines Register poll) released another Indiana survey tonight, also showing Obama up within the margin of error, 41% to 38%.
• And in truly stunning general election numbers, Obama leads McCain 49% to 41% while Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%.
  

There have been few states in which there has been genuine uncertainty as to who would win rather than suspense about the margin. Texas was certainly the last state in which we went into Election Day with no favorite, but even there Clinton had gone into it the campaign as a favorite. This is why the next two week promise to be so much fun: There will be an actual measure by which to judge candidates' performances rather than the always subjective metric of what losing margin constitutes a moral victory! That said, Clinton will need more than just a narrow victory, but this initial indecisiveness suggests she might have trouble getting there.

As for the general election, it would certainly be very impressive for the Democratic nominee to even put Indiana in play, as the state has not voted for a Democratic nominee since 1964. That said, the Selzer poll does look like an outlier; there have been other general election polls from Indiana and none suggests that McCain is in that much danger here. Not to mention that if McCain is in danger of losing Indiana come November he probably will be in even worse shape in neighboring Midwestern states such as Iowa and Ohio -- not that the Obama campaign necessarily thinks it has a good chance of winning the latter. In a memo it distributed today to superdelegates and that the Washington Post obtained, the campaign lists what states Obama will concentrate on, classifying them as "big states," "traditional battlegrounds" and "new states" (CO and VA, but also TX, ND and MT). This was meant to be a memo about electability, which explains the inclusion of TX, ND and MT as there have been some polls lately in which Obama has been strong but not Clinton. But much more shocking is that Florida and Ohio have just been left out of the memo!

Two other general election surveys were released over the past two days by Rasmussen:

• In Minnesota, Obama crushes McCain 52% to 37%. Clinton is ahead by a much narrower 47% to 42%. This is a significant improvement for both Democrats; a month ago, Obama lead McCain by 4 and Clinton trailed by 1.

• In Nevada, however, another crucial swing state that is near the top of the Democrats' pick-up list, McCain is leading both Democrats, 48% to 43% against Obama and 48% to 38% against Clinton -- a rare case in which there the proportion of undecided voters is much higher in Hillary's match-up.
• Last month, both Democrats led McCain -- Obama by 4%, which was already a decline from the month before when Obama led by 12%.

Both of these states will be very disputed all the way to November. Minnesota is one of the blue states the GOP is assured of contesting; not only did it only narrowly reject Bush in 2004, but the GOP convention will be held in St. Paul this year and MN Governor Pawlenty is at the top of McCain's vice-presidential list. As for Nevada, Democrats know they must make inroads in the West if they want to survive the census reallocation that will have kicked in by the next presidential election. They have room to grow in the region and the Obama campaign clearly believes that the West (starting with Colorado) is fertile ground for the Illinois Senator.

Finally, Rasmussen also released a Senate poll from Minnesota:

• It shows Senator Norm Coleman leading Al Franken 50% to 43%. This is a second month in a row the Republican is improving his position since trailing 49-46 in February. Last month, Coleman was leading by 2%, 48-46.

This is the first time Coleman is reaching 50% in a Rasmussen poll, the vulnerability threshold no incumbent wants to fall under. Note that Franken's trajectory is going downward just as he looks to be securing the DFL's nomination. This race is probably the purest Senate toss-up along with Alaska's Senate race, as all other races more or less clearly lean towards the incumbent or challenging party. With Democrats unable to make much of a move right now in Maine and Oregon, Franken could benefit from more DSCC attention.

Senate diary: Series of polls brings good news to both parties

New Jersey's Senate race is monopolizing the attention right now, but a number of polls released over the past few days give him some pointers about the situation in other states, the first of which comes to us from Rasmussen:

• In the battle of former Virginia governors, Democrat Mark Warner leads his opponent Jim Gilmore 55% to 39%.

This is actually a decent showing for the Republican given how much Warner is favored in this race, and that a poll in which Gilmore is led 65-21 among unaffiliated voters can be described as good news says a lot about his chances.

Meanwhile, the GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates conducted polls in three states for a business coalition (Coalition for a Democratic Workplace). These polls were taken early in March, so it has been a while. But since news is slow yet in congressional races these polls are still useful. Take these numbers with the usual necessary grain of salt since they come from a partisan pollster, and here are the results from three major Senate races:

• In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken 46% to 40%.

• In Maine, Senator Susan Collins leads Democrat Allen 54% to 31%.

• In Colorado, finally, Democrat Mark Udall is ahead in a Republican-held seat, beating Bob Schaffer 44% to 32%.
  

The first two polls confirm nearly everything we have seen already. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman is clearly endangered as he comes in under 50% in nearly all polls; the lead he posts in this survey is more worrisome than reassuring for an incumbent this far out from Election Day. But Coleman is clearly far from being in a desperate position and does not share the indignity of his colleague Sununu (from NH) who trails his challenger by double-digits in all polls. This race will remain a toss-up to the end.

In Maine, however, Democrats have still not been able to put the seat in play. This is actually the first poll from Maine since last November but Collins also posted such large leads then. This race was touted as one of the most competitive of the cycle a few months ago but Allen has to find a way to make Collins vulnerable because she is starting off looking strong.

Finally, the Colorado numbers are interesting since it is the first poll I know of that shows a candidate up double-digit. The conventional wisdom had long held that Udall would start off favored in this open seat but poll after poll showed the race to be a toss-up. In 2006, Democrat Ritter suddenly distanced his Republican adversary in the open gubernatorial race, and the DSCC would love for Udall to do the same here, though one poll is obviously far from enough to conclude anything of the sort.

One last note in this down-the-ballot polling diary, albeit one that odes not concern a senatorial race: Rasmussen released a poll from the Washington Governor's race and finds a toss-up, with Democratic incumbent Christine Gregoire leading Republican Dino Rossi 47% to 46%. I am fully expecting this race to remain just as tight all the way to November, though I give the incumbent the slightest of edges in my latest gubernatorial rankings.

Senate polls: Good news for Shaheen and MN stays a toss-up

After the avalanche of presidential polls over the past two days, Friday was marked by the release of a few interesting down-the-ballot surveys which help us assess the state of congressional races now that the season for recruitments and retirements is coming to an end. We first get two surveys from New Hampshire:

• A new ARG poll shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Senator Sununu 47% to 33%, including 63% of independents.
  

• Rasmussen confirms the Democrat's lead but pits it at a slightly smaller 49% to 41%. The margin has not changed in the past month.

New Hampshire has truly become the Santorum-Casey of the 2008 cycle, with the well-known Democratic challenger taking a lead from the very first polls released of the race and keeping a very stable advantage no matter the circumstances. ARG's previous poll showed a Sununu lead in December, but that has proven to be an outlier with numerous polls before and now also after showing Shaheen clearly ahead.

This explains why New Hampshire is ranked so high in my latest Senate Rankings. But you might remember that Santorum did have a brief period in the fall of 2006 where it seemed like he might come-back, though he was too far gone to capitalize on that. That suggests that Sununu can certainly hope to tighten things up by November.

The Senate election that seems guaranteed to go down the wire is Minnesota's probable match-up against Senator Coleman and Democrat Al Franken:

• A new Rasmussen poll shows Coleman edging Franken 48% to 46%. This is actually a slight improvement since February, where Franken was up 49% to 46%.
  

There were a string of polls in February showing Franken with a small lead against Coleman, but the Rasmussen survey is the second (after a poll released Monday) with Coleman reversing that trend. Given the demographics of Minnesota and Coleman's narrow, disputed and controversial election back in 2002, it is unlikely that Franken can come to pull significantly ahead. But every passing month (and every passing poll) should reassure the DSCC that Franken is the real deal. While many doubted whether he could escape his comedian roots to be a serious contender, Franken is holding the incumbent under 50% and barely ahead.

The third Senate poll I want to cite comes to ask from Georgia, courtesy of Rasmussen. Saxby Chambliss's re-election isn't very contested, and no one is for now expecting it to rise to the level of a competitive race. Rasmussen's poll shows Chambliss leading his closest competitor, Dale Cardwell, 52% to 36%.

Finally, an interesting congressional survey was released today in Alaska. It is an internal poll for the campaign of Democrat Metcalfe released by the polling company Hart:

• Jack Metcale leads Rep. Young 45% to 37%. The poll also shows Young trailing a generic Democrat 41% to 34%.

Democrats believe they have a great chance of picking up AK-AL, but most consider Ethan Berkowitz their best chance of doing so. There have been numerous polls released in the past few months showing Berkowitz leading Young, and the Metcalfe campaign apparently was feeling itself left out and wanted to jump back in the game proving that their candidate, too, could beat Young. Note that most of the incumbent's troubles come from his ethical issues; if Young goes down in the heated primary he is facing, odds will get much longer for whichever Democrat wins the nomination.

Monday polls: Obama weakens in some polls, Coleman up in MN

http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifA day after a wave of general election polls highlighted McCain's improving position, the new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that the Democrats are retaining a slight lead:

• Clinton beats McCain 51% to 46%, while Obama is on top 49% to 47%.
• This is an improvement for Democrats, as they both trailed McCain in Gallup's previous poll released at the end of February.
  

Noticeable in this poll is also that Clinton is running slightly ahead of Obama, which confirms that the two candidates electability showing is starting to be balanced and inconsistent again as it used to be after a few weeks in which Obama was running way ahead. And this could coincidence to a general weakening of Obama's position over the past few days, perhaps as a result of the negative attention he attracted with the controversy over Wright:

• Gallup's tracking poll shows Clinton taking a statistically insignificant, 47% to 45%. What is not insignificant is that this is the first time in 9 days (since the days following Hillary's March 4th come back) that Obama is ahead.
  

• Rasmussen has also showed a tightening Democratic primary over the past few days (basically since Wright), with Obama now up 46% to 44%. Worth noting that Clinton is up 48% to 42% among registered Democrats, so Obama is getting his lead from independents and Republicans willing to vote in the Dem primary.

• In the general election, Rasmussen shows McCain pulling ahead and leading both Democrats 48% to 42% -- a lead that is starting to look significant. Confirming that Obama's issues are due to last week's stories is the drop in his favorability rating and the rise of his unfavorable rating.

Naturally, the Clinton-Obama national match-ups are more useless now than ever since there only are a handful of states that still have to vote. But they are an important indication of the mood of the country and of the impact stories are having. And the Obama campaign will take comfort in a CNN poll released today but taken from Friday to Sunday (so also after the Wright controversy) that shows Obama is leading Clinton 52% to 46%. This is the first time Obama is above 50% in a CNN national poll.

Finally, SUSA released a Senate poll today from Minnesota and brought some good news for the GOP:

• The incumbent Norm Coleman is way ahead of the Democrat Al Franken, 51% to 41%.
• This is a dramatic shift from SUSA's February poll that showed a toss-up between the two candidates. What is strange is that the male vote practically did not change between the two but that the female vote dramatically shifted from Franken to Coleman.

This is the first poll taken since Franken became the likely Democratic nominee with the withdrawal of his strongest opponent. And it is particularly frustrating for Democrats since it follows a string of polls that showed Franken edging out Coleman, confirming that this seat will be one of the most hotly contested (and entertaining) of the cycle. We will have to get confirmation that this poll is not an outlier, of course, and the numbers remain close enough (especially this far out of Election Day) for us to rate this as one of the Democrats' very best pick-up opportunities.

IN-07 special election, and why the NRCC's financial woes matter

It's the season of special elections. Three days after the stunning Democratic take-over in IL-14, voters will go to the polls tomorrow in Indiana's 7th district. This is a traditionally Democratic district, centered on Indianapolis. But there are many factors that are very favorable to Republicans.

For Indianapolis turned red in November in the municipal elections, in one of the night's most unexpected upsets. Second, Rep. Carson had been struggling in the district's for a few cycle's already, winning underwhelmingly. While some of that can be explained by the congresswoman's absenteism due to health problems -- she tragically died a few months ago, setting up this special election -- the district is showing a surprising readiness to turn to the GOP.

And then there is the choice of candidates: the Republicans are fielding a strong candidate, state Rep. Jon Elrod, who was already being heavily courted before Carson's death and before it became clear that the seat would be open. Democrats, on the other hand, chose the grandson of the late congresswoman, Andre Carson. Many are criticizing that choice as the weakest choice the Democrats could have made. There have been two polls of the race in the past two months: The first showed Carson leading by only 3%, and the second showed him up by a much more comfortable 18% ahead. A big disparity indeed.

So why is this special election not being talked about more, and are Democrats really in danger of giving back tomorrow what they gained on Saturday? It's hard to say exactly how tight the race will be tomorrow, but an Elrod victory would be even more surprising than Foster's was on Saturday. First, the fundamentals of the district still clearly favor Democrats in a year in which the party has a very clear advantage. And you have to add to that the low turnout factor: Democrats have been turning out in far greater numbers in almost every election since January -- including in red states -- and that probably accounts for a big part of Foster's Illinois Victory as well.

The biggest reason why Elrod is not looking more threatening tomorrow, however, is the NRCC's fundraising woes. The Republican Congressional Committee barely has enough money in the bank and massively trails their Democratic counterpart. In the past two weeks, they spent more than 1/5th of their cash on hand defending IL-14... and they lost. The NRCC has no money whatsoever right now to invest in a long-shot seat like IN-07 -- and they know that whatever they spend the DCCC will easily outspend them by huge amounts. Not only can't they afford to start an ad war, but the fact that they can't keep one up would probably put their candidate in a bigger hole than he started with.

Now, the DCCC did not hesitate to jump in both OH-05 in December and in IL-14 last week. It lost the first and won the second but in both it forced Republicans to play defense, panic and spend a ton of money. It tested GOP strength in both districts, and looked at what stuck. They have raised enough money to be able to afford that. If the positions were inversed right now, you can be sure the DCCC would have invested a significant amount in IN-07, since the conditions of the district are even more favorable than in IL-14 and OH-05.

This funding disparity will continue all the way to November. Expect Republicans to be unable to contest nearly as many Democratic-held seats as they would want (and thus they will let many freshmen representatives strengthen their position) and they will have to face a Democratic onslaught, as the DCCC will not hesitate to test Republicans in districts left and right to see where they might be potential. And the GOP will not be able to defend all those places and will be left hoping that the individual candidates have enough resources to counter the DCCC.

Even if Elrod somehow wins tomorrow, he will have done so mostly by himself. The differences between IL-14 and IN-07 still stand, and they will have a major impact on November.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Senate race made some news today, as Mike Ciresi announced he would renounce his bid for the Democratic primary nod. This makes Al Franken the party's presumptive nominee to take on Senator Norm Coleman. A string of polls over the past
few weeks showed Franken narrowly edging out Coleman in what is shaping up to be one of the top Senates in the country.

Early in the cycle, Ciresi and Franken seemed to be engaged in a very competitive primary, with doubts surrounding Franken's general election strength. But once Franken posted very strong fundraising numbers and tied Coleman in polls, his case was dramatically strengthened; he was opening up a clear edge over Ciresi for the party's nomination (which was going to be decided at a state convention), and Ciresi must have felt that as well. Now, Franken can turn his attention -- and his impressive resources -- to Coleman and avoid spending too much of it in the primary process.

Congressional diary: Dems lose a House candidate and get mixed Senate news

Republicans got good news this week in Florida's 15th district, which Rep. Weldon opened up a few weeks ago. FL-15 is a reliably Republican district, where Bush got 57% in 2004, but Democrats were hoping to make it a race with the candidacy of Brevard County Commissioner Nancy Higgs. But Higgs has abruptly dropped out of the race, making this contest a very difficult one for Democratic efforts to expand the map and force the GOP to play defense.

To make matters worse for the DCCC, they were counting on the fact that the FL congressional primaries are very late and hoping that a few Republican candidates would contest the nomination, extending the intra-party divisions well into the fall. But it now looks that the GOP has managed to clear the field for state Sen. Bill Posey, with most other potential contenders endorsing him.

FL-15 just got significantly much safer for Republicans, a relief for them in an election year they have so many open seats to contest. (I know I have not updated my House rankings since the end of November, and it has been hard to find time to concentrate on the congressional races with the primaries heating up. But look for the new rankings to come out shortly.)

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released Senate polls today from Minnesota and Oregon:

• In Minnesota, Senator Coleman is trailing Democrat Al Franken 49% to 46%, though he maintains a small lead against another Democrat, Mike Ciresi, 47% to 45%.

• Oregon looks better for the Republican incumbent, Sen. Gordon Smith, who leads House speaker Jeff Merkley 48% to 30% and Steve Novick 48% to 35%.

There have been a number of polls from Minnesota in recent weeks, and this is the third poll in a row (after SUSA and the University of Minnesota) that shows Franken edging out Coleman. It is obviously bad news for an incumbent to fall behind -- or even be tied -- with a challenger this early in the cycle, particularly when the challenger is someone who has had some challenge being taken seriously given his comedian past. The fact that Franken has morphed into a serious politician by early 2008 should not bode well for efforts to discredit him.

In addition, Coleman is now under the threat of a primary challenge by former Sen. Rod Grams, who served from 1994 to 2000. Grams also considered jumping in the primary in 2006, and he explained that he was motivated by his disappointment against the Republican primary. It looks unlikely that Grams will actually jump in, but it could certainly make life difficult for Coleman.

The Oregon race has been making little news, and has been very rarely polled. The SUSA survey implies both that Gordon Smith is weak (he is being held under 50%, always a worrisome sign) and that Democrats have a long way to go to make it a really competitive race. They failed to recruit a number of top-tier candidates to challenge Smith, and Merkley and Novick are not as strong (at least early on) as other candidates would have been. That means that we won't know for a few more months how competitive the Oregon race will really be, not until the campaigning picks up and voters hear more about the Democrats. For now, Smith can be relieved that he has dodged the fate of trailing early that has hit some of his colleagues (Sununu, Coleman).

Down-the ballot polls have good news for Democrats

Forgive me for two poll-related entries in a row, but interesting surveys were released this evening from down-the-ballot races. First, a poll from Minnesota's Senate poll released by SUSA. It shows Sen. Norm Coleman and Al Franken in a toss-up, with Coleman edging out the former comedian 47% to 46%. Coleman leads Democrat Mike Ciresi by a wider margin, 51% to 40%.

This is first and foremost excellent news for Franken. Most polls until recently had Ciresi and Franken running at the same level against Coleman, but this is the second poll in a row that has Franken running significantly better. The designation of the nominee in MN is largely an insider's game, so Franken will be able to make great use of the electability argument.

It also confirms that the DSCC has managed to make Minnesota into a top-tier race, something neither Oregon nor Maine -- races that were until recently mentioned in the same breath as Coleman's. This alone will guarantee that the DSCC invests heavily here, and hope that the Democratic nominee is boosted by presidential coattails (note that Dems have not had many close Senate races fought on blue states over the past few cycles).

Second, we get a Missouri Governor's poll from Rasmussen. Gov. Blunt unexpectedly announced he was not running for re-election last month, starting a scramble among state Republicans. Democrats had a candidate running for years already, Attorney General Nixon. And Rasmussen shows him leading big in what is now an open race, 46% to 35% against state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and 48% to 30% against Rep. Kenny Hulshof who recently announced she would leave her House seat and run for the governor's mansion.

Missouri is one of the only competitive governor's races in 2008 (with Indiana and North Carolina), but the first poll that tests someone else than Blunt suggests that Nixon has the clear upper-hand. The fact that a Democrat has such a large lead in an open race also suggests that the state might be looking to move towards Democrats, good news for them in the presidential race as well.

In blow to Senate Democrats, Mississippi Supreme Court sides with Gov. Barbour

I was thinking of ways to escape the curse of the never-ending Democratic primary race (Clinton is now 210 votes up in New Mexico and the CA delegate count is nowhere close to finish) when the Mississippi Supreme Court helped me change the subject by releasing its decision on the timing of the special election for Sen. Trent Lott former Senate seat.

On January 14th, Judge DeLaughter ruled in favor of Attorney Genearl Jim Hood, who had filed the suit. DeLaughter argued that the law clearly stated that the election had to be held "on or before March 19, 2008." (For a background of the controversy, check here).

But in a blow to Democrats (and to common sense), the Court over-turned the decision of a lower court by a 7-2 vote and ruled that Gov. Barbour has the authority to set the election on November 4th. So we will not be allowed the pleasure of following an explosive Senate race in the middle of the spring -- though I admit we will have plenty of other races to follow.

This decision is a boost for the GOP and their chances of holding this seat. Newly appointed Sen. Wicker will now have many more months to develop the advantage of incumbency and get free media exposure, implementing himself in the state. More importantly, the election will now be held the same day as the presidential race, which means that it will be a high turnout affair and that the Democratic candidate, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, will have to convince many voters to split their tickets.

If the election had been held in 6 weeks as was the plan until this late intervention by the MS Supreme Court, Musgrove would have relied on a lower turnout election in which the issue would be getting the most motivated supporters at the polls. Given the DSCC's financial advantage and the enthusiasm gap between the two parties everywhere in the South, that would have given Musgrove hope of prevailing in a special election.

In other Senate news, two polls were released last week from New Mexico and Minnesota. Since I was already blogging about little else than polls at the time, I thought I would hold off to these for a few days, and this seems to be the perfect opportunity to share them:

• In MN, a Minnesota Public Radio poll (PDF) is the first survey to have Al Franken ahead of GOP incumbent Coleman, albeit by a small margin: 43% to 40%. Coleman beats Mike Ciresi, another Democrat running for the nomination, 43% to 38%.


• Meanwhile, a New Mexico Senate poll has Democrat Udall crushing his Republican opponents, 53% to 31% against Steve Pearce and 58% to 30% against Heather Wilson.

Both set of numbers are very much in line with other polls we have seen over the past few months, particularly in New Mexico where Democrats have got to be happy with the way things are shaping, as they got their strongest candidate short of Bill Richardson.

In Minnesota, this poll has to please the DSCC who has been having difficulty expanding the map over the past few months. Recruitment failures and worrisome polls in places like Maine have led Republicans to argue that the second-tier of races (Oregon, Minnesota, Maine) is holding firm for them, but Al Franken's lead in this poll should give Democrats comfort. Also, it is very important for Franken to prove that he is a serious candidate and not just a comedian. After all, he is still engaged in a very competitive Democratic primary.

One last note from North Carolina's Governor race where an entry by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has suddenly given Republicans hope they can pull an upset in a state that votes Republican in federal elections but remains blue at the state level. A new Rasmussen poll shows McCrory would keep things close but starts as a slight underdog, as he is trailing 39% to 34% against Attorney General Richard Moore and 42% to 38% against LG Beverly Perdue.

Congressional diary: Who would have thought OH-05 would see this many ads?

• More ads in OH-05

6 more days in OH-05's special election, and the campaign keeps heating up. Two days after the DCCC's ad buy and one day after a massive initial ad buy of $250,000, the NRCC has dumped even more money in the race, for a total now of nearly $325,000. This is more than 10% of the NRCC's total cash-on-hand right now.

Meanwhile, the ads have started to run. I linked to the Democratic ad yesterday, and here are a few ads being run by Republicans. First up is Bob Latta's personal ad which is all about illegal immigration (you can view it here. It features a very disturbing 10 second blurry shot of a policeman padding down two men that are arrested and pressed against a car... No comment needed, I believe. The NRCC's ad is here and is a negative ad against Democrat Robin Weirauch... also on the topic of illegal immigration. No doubt the GOP thinks this issue will work wonders next year, and we shall see next Tuesday how it has worked out in Ohio.

What is frustrating is that we have not seen a single independent poll of the race, so it is hard to know where things stand, whether the committees are overreacting, overplaying their hand, or whether they are dead on and the race is actually competitive.

• Taking Al Franken seriously

Meanwhile, this new New York Times piece out today is a good morning read for those who are frustrated by how under-covered the Minnesota race has been over the past few months. The quick summary: Al Franken has been campaigning for months, and everyone -- including opponents -- are starting to take him seriously. Some Republicans are excited at the prospect of running against him thinking he is too polarizing, and some Democrats resent him for supporting the Iraq War early.

It is difficult to know how competitive Franken would be. One thing that is certain is that (1) he is within single-digits in polls taken these past few months and (2) he is one of the best fundraisers on the Senate circuit, even outraising Coleman for the third quarter. Both these elements suggest Democrats should not be that concerned about Franken's electability, though there is no question that neither he nor Ciresi are slam dunks against Coleman.

SUSA surveys most competitive Senate races and finds Democrats in good shape

Awesome morning for political junkies, as SurveyUSA has just released a poll from the seven most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Democrats look very good in six of them, but Maine still looks out of reach. In order of vulnerability:

• Virginia

Mark Warner looks like a done deal. He has one of the best favorability rating of any candidate polled by SUSA (49% favorable versus 23% unfavorable), certainly better than his opponent Jim Gilmore's (21-31). Warner leads Gilmore by a massive 57% to 35% -- in line with other polls we have seen, and big enough for the GOP to not even try.

There have been small rumors that George Allen might still jump in the Senate race, but SUSA shows that he would still badly trail Warner, 52% to 42%.

• New Hampshire

Here is another race with the Democratic challenger up by double-digits. Former Governor Shaheen leads Senator Sununu 53% to 42%. Strengthening her lead are the internals that have Shaheen's favorability rating at a strong 46-33, while Sununu has a negative rating at 31-38.

• Colorado

This is the first independent poll of the race that has pushed undecideds, and it helped Democrat Udall have his first lead of the cycle as independents break for him. Udall has a narrow edge, 48% to 41%, against Republican Bob Schaeffer. Udall has a good favorability rating (30-19), but both men are mainly unknown statewide.

• New Mexico

SUSA did a strange job here, as they tried both Republicans (Pearce and Wilson) against Chavez, Denish and Richardson (the latter two have made it clear they are not running), but not against Tom Udall who is looking at the race now and who many see as a stronger candidate. But Democrats still get good news with Chavez, who leads both Republicans: 48% to 43% against Pearce and 48% to 44% against Wilson.

This is much better than the SUSA poll of the beginning of October when Chavez was crushed by Pearce. But SUSA confirms how much stronger Governor Richardson would be, as he leads Pearce 58 to 37% and Wilson 59% to 37%. Another interesting finding: Most candidates are either unknown or aren't very polarizing, but Heather Wilson has a very high unfavorable rating: 48%. Probably because of the attorney general scandal.

• Minnesota

Minnesota has not been polled a lot, but Senator Coleman already appeared under 50% in the few polls that have been released. But this latest survey has Coleman weaker than we have ever seen him. He is tied with Democrat Mike Ciresi at 44%, and is ahead by an insignificant point against Al Franken, 46% to 45%. One factor against Franken is his high unfavorable rating: 37%, against 22% favorable. Coleman also has 37% unfavorable, but 36% favorable. This should still comfort those who say Franken cannot be elected.

• Oregon

I believe this is the first poll of Oregon we have seen all year, and Democrats will be relieved that Senator Gordon Smith is as vulnerable as they thought. He is under 50% against both his Democratic opponents: 48% to 39% against Jeff Merkley and 45% to 39% against Steve Novick. Adding to this, both Democrats are huge unknowns (67% and 78% of voters are unfamiliar with them, respectively), so they certainly have a lot of room to grow.

• Maine

And then comes Maine, and the third poll in two weeks that has Susan Collins with a massive lead against Democratic challenger Rep. Tom Allen... and more importantly, above 50%. She is ahead of Allen 55% to 38%, and posts a strong favorability rating: 48% to 25%. Allen cannot even rely on the hope voters don't know him, as only 11% are unfamiliar with him.

All in all, Democrats lead in four races, are tied in another, have made a sixth vulnerable and have a long way to go in the last -- and this does not even account for possible hot races in NC, AK or KY.