Congressional diary: Begich declares in Alaska, GOP loses candidates in Arizona

The day's most important congressional news, of course, is the first round of the special election in Mississippi's first district; I will get to that race shortly, when I post my guidelines for what to watch for tonight. Two other important congressional news that are unfolding this week concern recruitment and, as has become typical in this cycle, Democrats have once again been more successful than Republicans.

In Alaska's Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich announced his candidacy against GOP Senator Ted Stevens. Begich had formed an explanatory committee at the end of February, the first step toward a formal declaration of candidacy, so this week's step is not surprising. But it confirms that Alaska will be the stage for one of the cycle's most disputed Senate races. Stevens is a giant of Alaska politics; first elected in 1970, he has received at least 67% in every one of his re-election races since 1972. He is now considerably weakened by a corruption scandal and an FBI investigation and faces a potentially tricky primary.

Most polls have shown a toss-up, with the latest (from Rasmussen) finding Stevens up 1%. Other polls released earlier in the year found Begich leading. This race is likely to rise in my next Senate rankings -- which should hopefully come out shortly (I know it has been a very long time since I have updated them).

In Arizona, meanwhile, Republicans are playing defense in the first district. Ethically embattled Rep. Renzi retired a few months ago, improving the Republicans' chance of holding the seat. But that still requires finding a strong candidate to run... something the GOP has not been able to do. Their latest efforts focused on convincing Ken Bennett, a former state Senate president who had already declined to run, that he should reconsider. Bennett (re-)announced this week that he would stay out of the race despite this being a "tough decision." This leaves Republicans with Sydney Hay, the president of the Arizona Mining Association. Democrats have the opposite problem -- a competitive primary.

And don't forget that there are still is a possibility Renzi might be forced to resign, potentially creating a special election; given turnout differential between the two parties, those have tended to be favorable to Democrats this year. AZ-01 is rated as lean take-over in my latest House ratings.

House diary: Renzi shows no intention of resigning, Dems make move in Alabama

After Arizona Representative Renzi was (unsurprisingly) indicted a few days ago with 36 charges of corruption, speculation mounted that Renzi would be forced out of his seat early, forcing a very difficult special election for the GOP. And pressure rose even more when Minority Leader Boehner hinted that he would like to see a Renzi resignation, signaling that House Republicans were even more worried about having to face ethics as an issue again next year than the difficulty of defending such a seat in a special election.

Now, Renzi is finally speaking up and pledging to stay in office. “I will not resign and take on the cloak of guilt because I am innocent," he said, a declaration that for now rules out the possibility of a special election here. Renzi is not running in November so the seat was open already, and there is no reason to expect Renzi to resign in the coming months if he wants to hold firm now. After all. Rep. Ney (from OH-18) did jump out of his race late in the fall of 2006, months after his party had started pressuring him but the circumstances were there different: Ney was actually running for re-election. Rep. Jefferson (D-LA), on the other hand, is indicted and still in the House.

Meanwhile, Democrats got some good news in Alabama, where they might have just managed to make an overwhelmingly Republican district competitive. AL-02, which opened up months ago, gave 67% of its vote to Bush in 2004, so it is not the type of open seat the GOP was expecting to spend any time thinking about. But Democrats just scored a major recruiting coup by convincing Bobby Bright, the mayor of Montgomery, to run for the House. Now, what is unusual here is that Bright is a non-partisan mayor and that Republicans were courting him as well, as I had reported back in September. So Bright deliberately chose to jump in as a Democrat when he could have had a much easier time as a Republican. Given the number of Republicans in their party's primary, this might also be to avoid a crowded primary -- and there is little doubt that Bright would seat at the Right of his caucus if he got to the House.

But from an electoral perspective, this is yet another open seat headache for the GOP. The very red nature of the district makes Bright an underdog for now, but his high-profile in his populous city should enable him to keep things close. And this is exactly the DCCC's intention: Expand the map and force the RNCC to defend seats like AL-02. Remember -- and I cannot state this enough -- the GOP has a massive fundraising disadvantage right now. Yes, they have been doing better over the past few months but they remain far behind their counterparts and still don't have that much to spend.

Movement in House races: An indictment, a withdrawal and an un-retirement

There has been a lot of movement today in House races, with 3 Republicans making news. The most important came from AZ-01, as Rep. Renzi was indicted on 36 charges of corruption, including conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering, extortion and insurance fraud (more detail on the charges here). Renzi had been under investigation for many months now, and had already announced that he would not run for re-election next year, so this does not change that consideration.

But Renzi's indictments now opens up the possibility that the congressman might retire, creating a special election and an opportunity for Democrats to go after the seat months before the general. House Minority leader Boehner is already pressuring Renzi to resign, as the last thing the GOP wants right now is to be facing an ethics problem again. Considering the turnout difference in the past few months, Democrats have to be given an edge in such a special election. AZ-01 is a competitive seat that Democrats were already very excited to compete in, and it was at the top of their priorities list. The only Republican that the NRCC has been able to recruit for now is Syney Hay, who lost a primary to Renzi in 2002. No word for now as to whether Renzi is likely to follow suit, but we will obviously keep an eye on this seat.

Meanwhile, also in Arizona, Rep. Shadegg decided to... un-retire in AZ-03. He had announced last week that he would step down next year, in a very unexpected move. But many of his colleagues rallied to convince him to stay -- Shadegg was considered the conservative movement's candidate for Minority Leader last year -- and Shadegg has obliged: "When the conservative movement asks you to stick around, that's a pretty tough request to turn down."

I had written last week that, "This retirement is thus not important because it creates another competitive open seat... but because it says a lot about the state of disarray of House Republicans." So in that sense Shadegg changing his mind does not represent a huge loss for Democrats. This is a district that Bush won with 57%, after all, not necessarily the most friendly territory for a take-over. That said, Democrats have a candidate that they were excited about and that is very well-funded, so they were looking to capitalize on this to expand the map a bit more and push the GOP into playing defense even more, which they most likely will not be able to do now.

The third House race making news is IL-11, the swing district left open by Rep. Weller a few months ago. This is a race in which recruiting has been very uneven, with Democrats getting state Senate President Debbie Halvorson while the GOP's top choice refused to get in. The GOP primary was won on February 5th by New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, who was not having a good race so far and anemic fundraising, prompting IL-11 to be moved up to the top of the vulnerable House races (I had already moved it to Lean Takeover in my November House rankings).

Now, Baldermann has announced he is dropping out of the race, leaving the GOP with no candidate. The primary has passed, which means that the district's Republicans can now just decide on a new nominee among themselves. This could actually prove a blessing, as the GOP now has much more time to find a candidate stronger than Baldermann -- and have the argument that that candidate won't even have to contest a primary. Given that Halvorson was already favored over Baldermann, the NRCC doesn't have that much to lose here at this point; but they definitely want to get in someone with at least some strength to not let Democrats pick up a seat with no competition.

One last note on a congressional race, this one from the Senate, as the latest Rasmussen poll from Virginia shows Mark Warner crushing Jim Gilmore, 57% to 37%. In the battle of the former Governors, the Democrat holds a clear edge and this is the most likely seat to be taken-over next year. And proof of how much of a favorite Warner is comes from the following internal: Warner leads by more among moderates (70% to 24%) than Gilmore does among conservatives (60% to 34%).