Senate: Gilmore nearly loses GOP nod, Landrieu in tight race

It is never a good sign when a presumptive nominee wins his party's nod with 50.3% of the vote, but that is what happened to Virginia's Jim Gilmore. The state's former Governor, who is already a heavy underdog in his quest to retain the seat against Democrat Mark Warner, had declared his candidacy in the fall and his backers had pushed the state GOP to announce that it would pick its Senate nominee in a convention rather than a primary. This was a way to insure that Gilmore, a conservative Republican, would be favored against Rep. Tom Davis, a more moderate politician representing Northern Virginia. Davis, who until then was considered the favorite to represent the GOP in the general election, would have had an easier time in a primary than at a convention packed with conservatives, and he indeed withdrew from the race soon after the state GOP dealt him this powerful blow.

But at the state convention this week-end, Gilmore's strategy stunningly turned against him, as delegates, who were mostly conservative activists, turned to a Republican even more conservative than Gilmore, Bob Marshall from the Virginia General Assembly. Marshall, who prided himself with having spent less than a tenth of what Gilmore had spent, came within 80 votes of 3,500 convention votes cast. In other words, Gilmore becomes the party's nominee with 50.3% of the vote.

With an unenergized conservative base and a moderate wing that will likely migrate to Mark Warner, especially since Tom Davis will not be on the ballot, the Virginia GOP is heading towards a rough Senate election. They better hope that the cross-over Senate votes do not translate into the presidential race, for Warner could have some coattails in one of the Obama campaign's top target states. Note, however, that increasing talk of Obama picking Warner as his running mate could be a nightmare for Virginia Democrats, who would be deprived of their candidate, and a huge gift to Jim Gilmore.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two new Senate polls:

• In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu is barely ahead of John Kennedy, 47% to 44%. This is Rasmussen's first poll from the state and he finds both candidates with strong favorability ratings.

• In Massachusetts, John Kerry has no trouble dispatching his challengers, posting 63% against both Jeff Beaty and Jim Ogonowski. Note that Ogonowski, who national Republicans were very excited about, failed to qualify for the ballot last week.

The Louisiana numbers are particularly interesting for they follow a series of surveys that had found Landrieu ahead by double-digits. Any incumbent polling under 50% is naturally in trouble, and the fact that Landrieu is barely ahead with a favorability rating of 59% testifies to the state's increasingly Republican lean. This is the GOP's only Senate pick-up opportunity this cycle, so the NRSC will make sure to play big, which is why I had left the race at the sixth spot of my recent Senate rankings. This poll confirms that the race will not be easy for Democrats.

Down-the-ballot: Idaho field set, GOP loses candidate in MA

Yesterday was primary day in Idaho, and the field is set for the open Senate race: Larry LaRocco easily won the Democratic nomination and Jim Risch crushed a large slate of opponents to capture the GOP nomination with 66% of the vote. Both results were expected, but given how many shocking turns the race took since the Larry Craig scandal exploded last summer, it is still noteworthy that Craig did not attempt a last minute coup to get himself on the ballot.

This sets up a rematch of the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, which Risch won 58% to 39%. LaRocco has an outside chance of scoring the upset, but Risch is heavily favored to become Idaho's new junior Senator, even with the strong winds pushing Senate Democrats nationally. The race is ranked 15th in my latest Senate rankings.

A more interesting last night came from Idaho's first congressional district. Bill Sali, first elected in 2006 in a very close general election contest after winning a crowded primary with 26% of the voted, was held under 60% of the vote in this primary, testifying to the hard feelings that still linger in the state about Sali's 2006 victory. The state GOP is notoriously hostile to Sali, who is one of the most conservative House members, so much so that even Idaho Republicans are uncomfortable with him. In fact, Democrats even ran an ad in 2006 about "what Republicans are saying about Bill Sali," quoting numerous high-profile figures like the Idaho House speaker. Sali barely prevailed at the end of the day, saved by the fact that ID-01 is one of the most conservative districts in the country.

Any incumbent who finishes with an unexpectedly low total in his primary has to be considered at least somewhat endangered in the fall, so Democrats will take a closer look at ID-01 now to determine whether they can make a play for the district. The Democratic nominee will be businessman Walt Minnick, who is mounting as strong a campaign as any Democrat can hope for in Idaho. As of May, Minnick had more cash-on-hand than Sali, testifying to the fact that his challenge should be taken seriously, though the incumbent starts heavily favored. He survived in 2006 when the seat was open and he had much of the state's Republican establishment against him, and conditions are much better for him this year.

In Massachusetts, meanwhile, the NRSC suffered a dramatic blow. It is one thing for Senate Republicans to have trouble fundraising and recruiting given how dismal the national environment is for the GOP, but what happened to Jim Ogonowski is plain incompetence. Ogonowski was recruited by national Republicans to run against Senator John Kerry, whose approval ratings have not been that high since his failed presidential run in 2004. Ogonowski, you might remember, lost a surprisingly tight special election in the fall for a Democratic-leaning district, and Republicans believed he had the right profile to at least force Kerry on the defensive.

This race was of course always a long shot for the GOP but given how few Democratic-held states they are contesting (well, only Louisiana really) they were at least content to be at least fielding a credible candidate in MA. But the deadline to submit petitions passed yesterday and Ogonowski fell short 82 signatures short of the number needed to qualify for the primary ballot! Even if he had that many more, he would probably not have qualified as a petition needs a cushion of signatures as a number of them are usually tossed out.

The Ogonowski campaign insists that they have filed more signatures that haven't been processed yet, but it is unlikely that they will pass the numbers they need, particularly as fellow Republican candidate Jeff Beatty, who will now probably the party's nominee against John Kerry, is taking advantage of Ogonowski's predicament to file complaints about his rival forging signatures. This will at least guarantee that Ognowski's petition will be carefully checked.

This is not a tragic blow to Republicans given that they were unlikely to truly put Kerry's seat in play (the only poll of the race had Kerry leading by 25%). But it is the accumulation of small failures -- whether in recruitment, fundraising or simply errors in the running of campaigns -- that are putting Senate Republicans in so much trouble.

Friday polls: Will Clinton get a post-PA boost?

Three days after the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton might have gotten a boost from her Tuesday victory if we believe Gallup's tracking poll. Clinton has recovered from a 10% deficit on April 22nd and has forced a statistical tie, with Obama ahead 48% to 47% in today's results which include interviews conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Gallup adds, "Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory." Gallup also finds Clinton jumping to a lead against McCain, 47% to 45%, while Obama narrowly trails, 46% to 45% -- the first time in a while Clinton's trendline is better than Obama's in Gallup.

Clinton benefited from a similar boost of support in the days immediately following the ABC debate but the race quickly fell back to its pre-debate form. Also, Rasmussen's tracking finds no tightening of the race -- though it is on a four-day average rather than a three-day one like Gallup, so momentum swings take a longer time to register. In the general, Rasmussen finds a similar improvement for Democrats; while McCain is typically strong in Rasmussen, he is today tied with Obama and leads Clinton by 2, 47% to 45%.

The two questions in the coming days will thus be: Will Clinton confirm and maintain a boost? And will that momentum affect numbers in Indiana and North Carolina? For now, the trendline seems to be negative for her in Indiana, though she is certainly in a position to win as a new poll indicates:

• ARG, who came closer in PA than in previous contests, finds Clinton ahead 50% to 45%. At the beginning of April, Clinton was ahead 53% to 44%.
• The partisanship gap is fascinating: Clinton leads by 20% among registered Democrats, Obama is ahead by 31% among independents and Republicans.
  

What Clinton wouldn't give to have Indiana be a closed primary like Indiana... This poll breaks a string of surveys showing a small lead for Obama, and it confirms that Indiana is one of the only states since February 5th in which there is actual uncertainty as to who will win, making the job of setting expectations a bit easier. With both candidates now going all-out in May 6th states, these numbers will certainly evolve in the coming 10 days.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two important general election polls:

• First, a poll from Pennsylvania finds that both Democrats have lost ground against McCain in the past two weeks -- suggesting that the increased negativity of the final days might have undermined their appeal. Clinton is now leading McCain 47% to 42% (she led by 9% two weeks ago); Obama trails 44% to 43% (he led by 8% two weeks ago).
• Clinton gets 78% of registered Democrats, Obama only 65%; unfortunately for the Illinois Senator, that's certainly not an outlier. Dozens of polls confirm that he has trouble breaking even the 70% mark among registered Democrats.

• In Massachusetts, both Democrats are ahead by double-digits, with Clinton trouncing McCain 55% to 36% and Obama ahead by a narrower 51% to 39%.

Both sets of numbers are significant. In Massachusetts, first, where a consistent wave of polls has shown that Obama could (stunningly) be in trouble against McCain; the most recent poll has him only ahead by 2%. The Rasmussen poll does show Obama trailing McCain by 5% among independents, suggesting that McCain's appeal among Northeast indies remains strong. Naturally, it is difficult to imagine a Democrat winning the White House without the 12 EVs of MA (even McGovern got them in 72!).

As for Pennsylvania, as troubling as those numbers are for Dems, this is probably as bad as it is going to get for the two Democrats to appeal to each other's supporters. The exit polls on Tuesday suggested that a higher number of voters than usual would be dissatisfied if the candidate they weren't supporting got the nomination. At least some of those will end up joining the Democratic side; the exact proportion that will stay away will determine the nominee's fate come November.

On a last polling note, Rasmussen also released a survey of the Massachusetts Senate race and finds John Kerry trouncing his Republican opponents and staying above 50%; he leads Jeff Beaty 55% to 30% and Jim Ogonowski (who came close to picking up a blue district in a special election in 2007) 53% to 31%. Kerry is likely to coast to re-election but it is worth pointing out that an entrenched incumbent like him could have hoped to come even further ahead against mostly unknown Republicans.