Romney's star shining a bit brighter

Recent developments in Iowa and in Michigan have improved Romney's prospects in the Republican race.

First up, Iowa. Romney has been the clear favorite to win the Iowa caucuses for quite some time. He convincingly won the Iowa Straw poll at Ames two weeks ago. At the time, most observers questioned whether the straw poll would have any influence on the race since the other top Republicans (Guiliani, Thompson and McCain) chose not to compete - ensuring that Romney would win the race uncontested. Well, the past two weeks have shown that yes, Ames did matter. Iowa Republicans seem to want to punish those candidates who snobbed them; Guiliani, Thompson and McCain have all gone down in recent polls while Huckabee - Romney's runner-up at the straw poll - is on fire and has closed in to second place.

Yesterday's eruption of gay marriage as an issue in the Iowa caucuses is a further boost to Romney. As discussed yesterday, gay rights is the last thing Giuliani wants to be asked about in town halls, while gay marriage is probably the social issue Romney is the most comfortable with. He is not deemed credible when he speaks about abortion, while he was an ardent opponent to gay marriage while Governor of Massachussets.

In response to yesterday's ruling, has has sought to press this advantage. He was the first major GOP candidate to react, and he did so in much stronger terms than McCain and Thompson who both oppose a federal amendment banning gay marriage. (Note: He also had the most severe comments against Craig, calling his actions "disgusting.") And he organized a special event today to condemn the ruling and show his leadership on the issue. Thus, Romney is simultaneously strenghtening his position with Iowa social conservatives and making sure Giuiliani stays weak in the state.

Romney's problem has always been his own weakness in South Carolina, as well as Giuiliani's strenght in the larger state. If he did not find a way to correct those two issues, any momentum out of an IA and NH victory could be lost. And now, here comes Michigan, offering a perfect solution. The Michigan House passed the bill this week making January 15th the new primary date - ahead of South Carolina, and two weeks ahead of Florida! And while the DNC will likely punish Michigan by stripping it of all its delegates, the RNC will only cut the MI delegates by half. The GOP primary of 01/15 would then be much more than a beauty contest.

Why is this good for Romney? Because Michigan is the best "big state" for his campaign - mostly because his father was Governor of the state! Michigan pollster EPIC/MRA released a very interesting poll today:
Romney 25%
Giuiliani 23%
Thompson 16%
McCain 15%
(The numbers on the Democratic side are less newsworthy. Clinton has a very healthy lead, leading Obama 40% to 21%).

Yes, Romney's lead is extremly narrow and statistically insignificant. But the contrast to other large states like CA, NY and - most importantly - FL could not be greater. There, Romney is being crushed. Here, he is tied for first. If Romney confirms his dominance in IA and NH, he is likely to roll to victory in Michigan (the same would not have been true if SC or FL had been third in line). And thus, Romney will get the big state win he needs, making sure to capitalize on early successes. And if Romney wins Iowa on January 5th, NH on the 8th and Michigan on the 15th, does anyone expect Giuiliani to remain as strong as he is in Florida and the later states? Certainly not!

Before Michigan changed its primary date, it just was not evident how Romney could possibly build on Iowa and New Hampshire victories with South Carolina and Florida looking soon after. But Michigan's leap to January 15th radically changes the dynamic on the Republican side, damaging Giuiliani's hopes to easely recover from power showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, and offering Romney an obvious path to the nomination.

And Giuliani is feeling the heat. He might be leading in national polls, but he realizes he is far from having closed the deal. The Politico's Martin reports today on a Giuliani campaign memo written by Giuliani aide Seaborn. The memo takes aim at Romney, marking a rare direct attack between candidates. And it's clear who Giuliani's campaign has in their sights: "Though crediting Mitt Romney for his "textbook campaign" in Iowa and New Hampshire, Seaborn writes that the former governor's advantage has been bought." And later:

Seaborn spends little time defending their own standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, instead choosing to focus on South Carolina, Florida and the February 5th states. "We are very strong in key states, like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California – states with a total of more than 350 delegates at stake," Seaborn writes, noting that the first three are, along with Delaware, are "winner-take-all" states and that the mayor can almost bank on "200+ delegates" on Feb. 5th.

That might have been true a week ago, but Michigan's move forward certainly undermines Seaborn's argument.

Breaking - A Senate AND a House seat open up in VA as Warner retires. Huge opening for Democrats!

In what is the best news so far for Democrats in the 2008 entire Senate cycle (yes, better even than the Craig scandal), Virginia's GOP Senator John Warner has announced he is retiring from the Senate. He had called a press conference for today at 2pm, and just announced his decision!

This had been rumored for quite a while now, and most people expected this announcement. (Check how the Daily Progress was covering it this morning.) But Warner had managed to keep everyone guessing. He had raised almost no money (usually a sure sign an incumbent is preparing to retire) and, at 80, was approaching an age at which many Senators quit. But he was also maintaining a very active presence in the Senate, most notably on Iraq, leading many to question the conventional wisdom that he would retire.

But this also means that a competitive House seat will open up, as GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who is widely expected to jump in the Senate primary, will have to retire from his house seat. Davis's seat is very competitive and as swing a district as swing districts get in Virginia. This is obviously a huge opening for Democrats, since it is precisely in the type of seat Davis holds that they made huge gains in VA in 2005 and 2006.

Back to the Senate: This is a huge blow to the Republican Party. John Warner running for re-election would have made the seat safe. Instead, this catapults the race at the very top of Democrat pick-up opportunities. Former Governor Mark Warner, who left office in 2005 with high approval ratings, is said to be extremely interested in the race, and the DSCC will push as hard as it can to recruit him. If he gets in the race, Democrats would start off favored to take this seat. Republicans will likely split in a very nasty primary between Rep. Davis from the Northern part of the state and former Governor Gilmore. Davis is one of the most moderate Republicans in the house - and many in the GOP will likely ferociously oppose him and rally behind Gilmore. And while Davis has raised much more money, the nomination might be decided at a party convention instead of a primary which would dramatically favor Gilmore.

Thus, the big question now is whether Mark Warner runs. Many within the VA Dem Party are pressuring him to pass on the Senate race and run for Governor in 2009 instead. The Examiner reports on Warner's dilemma, and notes that Warner's wife and daughter are said to favor a Senate run. Sure to influence Warner is the fact that Virginia governors cannot run for re-election immediately after their term is over (they can comeback later), which wuold mean that Warner, if he was elected Governor, would be out of a job by 2013... too far ahead of the 2016 presidential elections which he is said to be looking at.

Also, Warner is clearly on top of the vice-presidential contenders for the 2008 ticket – running for Senate would mean removing him from VP consideration. Yet, conventional wisdom is that he is ready to jump in. Here is The Daily Progress's take on Warner's decision:

Key Democrats said Thursday that Mark Warner, an Alexandria Democrat who served as governor from 2002 to 2006, is expected to run for the Senate next year, providing that the senior Warner, no relation, announces his retirement. Mark Warner’s political schedule for September includes the traditional Labor Day parade in Buena Vista as well as events later Monday in Covington and Newport News. “I think that Mark will run for the Senate if John Warner steps aside,” said state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County.

Republicans are facing an increasing number of endangered seats: CO, MN, NH, OR, ME and now VA. Others could still add themselves to the list...

Also, we are being told that Senator Webb has scheduled a press conference to follow Warner's.

Check Virginia blog Not Larry Sabato for more coverage.

Update
Check out Marc Ambinder's take on Warner's retirement's impact on the presidential race.

Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia. Both Mark Warner and Sen. James Webb are considered by the politigensia to be potential vice presidential picks this year. Needless to say, Warner would take himself out of consideration by running for Senate. Will Webb be more attractive, or less attractive, if as a running mate in Warner is on the ballot? It's not clear.

Interesting take. While I had mentioned that Warner's Senate candidacy would remove him from VP contenders, Ambinder thinks his running for Senate could be as helpful for Democrats in the presidential race.

While waiting for Virginia...

The political world is waiting for the 2pm Warner announcement. As has been the case for the past few weeks, most people expect Warner to announce he is retiring, but the suspense is exquisite.

Other Senate news on this Friday morning comes from, surprise, surprise, Idaho, where Larry Craig is reported be close to resigning. The RNC is said to have almost published a press release last night calling for Craig's resignation but then chose to hold on when they heard Craig was already leaning towards that option. The fact that the existence of such a release was leaked, however, means that it might have well have been released.

In one of the other major developing stories of the week, Romney predictably wasted no time to blast the decision of the Iowa judge to legalize gay marriage. He issued the following statement:

"The ruling in Iowa today is another example of an activist court and unelected judges trying to redefine marriage and disregard the will of the people as expressed through Iowa's Defense of Marriage Act. This once again highlights the need for a Federal Marriage Amendment to protect the traditional definition of marriage as between one man and one woman."

Amazingly, marriage licenses were already issues this morning to gay couples! The Des Moines Register reports:

Two male college students this morning obtained a marriage license at the Polk County recorder’s office and got a judge to sign a waiver allowing them to marry today rather than wait three days, as is required by law. The couple are now searching for someone to perform the wedding ceremony... The couple — Tim McQuillan and Sean Fritz, both Iowa State University students — were among 12 same-sex couples who obtained marriage licenses before 9 a.m. this morning at the Polk County recorder’s office.

The last major political story of the morning is word that Fred Thompson is finally set to announce his candidacy... on September 6th. Not that his news at all, since everyone has known for months now that Thompson would enter the race. In fact, that Thompson was allowed to prepare for a run for all this time - even visit the Iowa State Fair! - without having to disclose his fundraising and financing documents to the FEC was a mockery of campaign finance laws.

Update from Iowa

The Des Moins Register seems to be following the college gay couple around town and updating their every move. And they just reported that the couple now has gotten married:

Two male college students were married in the front yard of a Des Moines residence this morning. They were married by the Rev. Mark Stringer of First Unitarian Church in Des Moines at 10:32 a.m. Before the ceremony, Stringer said, "Awesome. It's a long time coming."After the ceremony, he said, "They are now official. The marriage license is the official document."The couple is now headed to the Polk County Administration Building to file the marriage certificate.

New Update from Iowa

The news is rapidly shifting in the Iowa gay marriage story. The latest development: Judge Robert Hanson agreed to issue a stay on yesterday's ruling and block its implementation. This means that the ban on gay marriage will not be lifted before the appeal courts rules, which would obviously be a few months. So no more gay marriages in Iowa for now. It seems the two college students were the only ones who had time to get married this morning before the stay was issued. Whether this ruling means their marriage is still valid is still a question mark. Many other gay couples had obtained marriage licenses this morning. It appears that this stay will deprive them of a chance to actually use their license and get married.

Evening Diary: Warner prepares high-stakes announcement

• Virginia: Is John Warner running for re-election?

Tomorrow will be a huge day for Senate news. Virginia's Senator John Warner has called a press conference at 2pm to announce whether or not he will run for re-election. This announcement is going to likely decide whether Virginia has a Democratic or Republican Senator come 2008: If he runs again, John Warner will likely face only token competition; but if he retires, Democratic will have a significant edge in the state because of the likely candidacy of former Governor Mark Warner.

So is he or isn't he? Amazingly, (John) Warner has managed to maintain the suspense, as there have been no leaks or credible indications of what he is going to announce. The conventional wisdom over the past few weeks has been that Warner would retire, but the Politico quoted Virginia Republicans today that expected Warner to run again. Warner has not acted like a politician running for re-election and has raised very little money, fueling speculations he is on his way out.

Check Campaign Diaries tomorrow afternoon to find out whether Democrats can expect to pick up this seat, or whether it has become a lost cause.

• Iowa Caucus

I reported earlier today that ARG's Republican poll showed Romney up 10% on Guiliani, with a stunning thirteen point rise to 14%. Later in the day, a ONE poll had very interesting numbers for the Republican contest:

• Romney leads with 35%, followed by Giuliani at 12% and Thompson and Huckabee tied at 11%. Just like in the ARG poll, McCain has collapsed in the single digits.

First off, Huckabee does seem to be on fire. He is in a virtual tie for second place, and has catapulted himself very near the first tier on the strenght of his Ames second-place alone. But the most important lesson of this poll is Thompton and Giuliani's weakness - much more so than Romney's strength. Giuliani and Thompson are not only behind, but they are also posting atrocious numbers. They're almost in single-digits!

Clearly, their decision to skip the August Straw Poll is hurting them badly. The Iowa Republican are punishing those who skipped Ames, and rewarding those who showed up. Can Giuiliani and Thompson recover from the impression that they are neglecting Iowa? Or is the Iowa electorate set up snubbing them right back?

• The Bathroom Scandal

Republicans are continuing to pressure Craig to resign. Today, NRSC Chairman Ensign joined many House members and a few Senators and called for Craig to step down, realizing that this scandal would likely not have any impact on the 2008 Senate races if Craig just goes away quietly. Not that Ensign called for Vitter's resignation after last month's straight prostitution scandal.

In related news, the Minneapolis Airport released the audio tape recording of the conversation between Senator Craig and Karsnia, the police officer who arrested him! The WaPo summarizes the tape's content. Noteworthy elements: Craig explicitely maintains he denies the charges but that he will plead guilty to avoid going to court; Karsnia accuses Craig of lying; and he then expresses dismay at politicians like Craig that make "[us go] down the tubes." He goes on to declare that, "I expect this from the guy we get out of the 'hood. I mean, people vote for you."

• Death penalty commutation in Texas

Texas Governor Perry commuted the death penalty of a man about to be executed not for actually killing someone, but only for being an accomplice to murder - or rather for failing to prevent a crime he supposedly should have foreseen. It is rare for a Governor (especially ones in Texas...) to commute death penalty sentences, so that this decision was rather unexpected.

Breaking- Judge makes gay marriage legal in Iowa! (How much will this doom the Giuliani campaign?)

The AP just reported a bombshell: An Iowa judge struck down the state's ban on gay marriage, granting several couples the right to get married.

In his ruling, Hanson said the state law allowing marriage only between a man and a woman violates the constitutional rights of due process and equal protection."Couples, such as plaintiffs, who are otherwise qualified to marry one another may not be denied licenses to marry or certificates of marriage or in any other way prevented from entering into a civil marriage...by reason of the fact that both person comprising such a couple are of the same sex," he said. The judge said the state law banning same-sex marriage must be nullified, severed and stricken from the books and the marriage laws "must be read and applied in a gender neutral manner so as to permit same-sex couples to enter into a civil marriage...

Naturally, Republicans started threatening to pass a constititutional amendment within minutes:

State Sen. Ron Wieck, R-Sioux, said he was surprised by the ruling and promised the Legislature would take another look at the issue."We'll look at something we can do legislatively," Wieck said.

The case will be appealed to the state Supreme Court. This guarantees that today's ruling will be on people's minds in Iowa for months, well into the Iowa caucuses. This could naturally have a huge impact on the presidential race, as the candidates' view on gay marriage is likely to become a much bigger issue on the campaign trail in Iowa. However, keep in mind that:

1. Democratic candidates do not significantly differ on their positions on gay marriage. The major three contenders all oppose gay marriage, and have more or less the same position on civil unions. This effectively means that this ruling will not have a big impact on the primary results - though candidates will probably spend much more time addressing the issue than they expected.
2. This could be devastating news, however, for the Giuliani campaign. Do they really want to be talking to Iowa voters about gay rights over the next few months? If this becomes a huge issue in the Republican primary, expect Giuliani's opponents to be able to use Giuiliani's past as a supporter of civil unions (not to mention the period he stayed with a gay couple) with much more relevance. This is not going to go away, and Giuliani will have to keep answering questions. Giuliani's moderation on social issues has not hurt him at all for now, but was that just because they had lost some of their urgency in the past few months?
3. Before any Democrat freaks out about what this means for their chances in the general election, remember that the gay marriage issue did not have much resonance in 2006. The constitutional amendments failed in Arizona and only narrowly passed in SD and in VA. Referendums also did not seem to increase conservative turnout.

And one last point: It will be interesting to see the reaction of Democratic candidates, and whether they have learned anything since Kerry's disastrous endorsement of the Missouri Hate Amendment in 2004. It would be more than very disappointing (though unfortunately not surprising) if they reacted the same way.

More Primary Updates: Union endorsement and ARG polls

Two major labor endorsements were announced in the past hour.

1. The Clinton campaign just scored a major (and slightly unexpected) victory. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (a 700,000 members union that is part of the AFL-CIO) has announced it is endorsing Clinton, in what is a setback for Edwards. It seems the Edwards campaign believed it would get the endorsement of this union. And more broadly, most of the Edwards strategy relies on strong backing from unions and he has aggressively courted labor over the past months.
2. Fortunately for Edwards, he got some good news too: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America has announced it is endorsing Edwards. This union is also a major get, with 500,000 members. Good timing, too, to avoid media coverage of how Edwards is getting rejected by unions.

And American Research Group released some crazy polls of early states.

• Iowa: Clinton leads with 28% (30 in July), then Obama at 23% (15%) and Edwards at 20% (21%). Richardson confirms his impressive double-digit status at 13%.
• New Hampshire: Clinton leads with 37% (31 in July), then Obama at 17% (31%) and Edwards at 14% (14%)
• South Carolina : Clinton leads with 32% (29 in July), then Edwards at 24% (18%) and Obama at 21% (33%)

The IA poll goes entirely counter the Time poll I blogged about earlier. Iowa is extremely difficult to poll (since a tiny number of people go to caucus), but it is clearly very tight and if Edwards comes in third he can forget any presidential hopes. He would likely be forced out soon thereafter, which would be a huge relief for Obama - which leads us to the paradox that Clinton is actually rooting for a strong Edwards Iowa showing, to make sure the anti-Hillary vote stays divided between her two rivals.

The NH and SC are fishy as well, with a dramatic Obama collapse in both states. Likely way too big to be believable, but which was the outlier? The July or the August poll? These numbers are much more in line with other polling outlets which generally show Clinton clearly leading in NH and with a narrow advantage in SC. Clinton remains the clear favorite - as these polls demonstrate. Whatever the merits of the ARG polls, it is evident that her rivals have not endangered her frontrunner status at all for now.

The Republican numbers are also very interesting. The bottomline: Huckabee is on fire. State by state: The IA numbers confirm that Romney leads in the first voting-state, but by less than we are used to seeing. He is ten points ahead of Guiliani (27 to 24). The huge surprise is Huckabee's showing: 14%, a 13 point increase in one month - clearly a result of his strong showing at the Ames Straw Poll in early August. This comes at the expense of McCain, who collapses from 17% to 5%. Romney also leads in New Hampshire (he is 4 points ahead of Guiliani after being down 1 in July). Huckabee is at 9% in NH, an 8 points increase that shows that his momentum is not just in Iowa. And Guiliani leads by 5 against Thompson in SC, with Romney stuck far behind at 9 tied with a booming Huckabee.

Primary Update: Iowa keeps the Edwards campaign in the top-tier

Time Magazine just released a poll this morning - and it shows John Edwards with a comfortable lead. Edwards is ahead with 29%, followed by Clinton at 24%, Obama at 22%. Richardson confirms his good form with 11%. Biden tops the rest of the field with 5%. Time also asked voters to choose between the top 4 candidates, and Edwards actually increases his lead then: He rises to 32% with Clinton and Obama still at 24% and 22%, and Richardson at a healthy 13%. These numbers are actually more valuable than the first set in Iowa. The complex voting method only people caucus for their candidate only if that candidate reaches a threshold of support at that caucus center - making it likely that supporters of "minor" candidates will have to transfer their vote to a top contender.

The poll confirms that Edwards is not at all out of the nomination fight. In a way, he is even better positioned than Obama since there is early voting state in which Edwards is emerging as the favorite. Edwards's challenge (well, besides actually winning Iowa) is to make sure Iowa matters! That is, make sure that any momentum he gets there would translate itself in later contests. For that to happen, he needs to make sure Clinton and Obama aren't too far behind in Iowa - for if they are the media might portray an Edwards victory as little else than meeting expectations. And he needs to make sure the primary calendar doesn't get so out of hand that Iowa is entirely marginalized. The current likely calendar (IA and NH within 2 days, Michigan a week later) would ensure that Edwards would at least get a fighting chance as the sudden additional media coverage would come at the perfect time for Michigan (a labor state, thus one in which Edwards could be strong).

Time magazine printed the poll along an extensive and very positive feature piece on the Edwards campaign in Iowa. They detail his campaign style and its populist tones - and relay the Edwards message that his Southern background and his charisma make him the Democrat most likely to reconquer the Middle Class, and thus the most electable candidate (Edwards is actually quoted as saying that he is from NC and Clinton is from NY, so voters will perceive him as more centrist even though he is more progressive... This might be stretching it, and it is hardly convincing that Edwards's home state is enough to make him more electable. Look at McGovern in 1972).

Elizabeth Edwards, who is emerging as the campaign's chief attack dog, is the voice stating this argument most explicitly: "I do not think the hatred against Hillary Clinton is justified. I don’t know where it comes from. I don’t begin to understand. But you can’t pretend it doesn’t exist, and it will energize the Republican base. Their nominee won’t energize them, Bush won’t energize them, but Hillary as the nominee will." We know that electability is Edwards' main argument, and they're going as far as they can with it. If anyone has any doubt, they should just check this Edwards campaign memo. The memo explains that Edwards would not only be more competitive in swing states, but that "unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play." (It is worth pointing out that Edwards selection as VP had no impact whatsoever in Southern states like NC or VA - nor anywhere else for that matter.)

Also, Carter was flirting with an Edwards endorsement during a joint appearance yesterday at Georgia Southwestern State University. While Carter didn't formally endorsed Edwards, he got pretty close:

"I can say without equivocation that no one who is running for president has presented anywhere near as comprehensive and accurate a prediction of what our country ought to do in the field of environmental quality, in the field of health care for those who are not presently insured, for those who struggle with poverty."

Pushing Craig out of the closet, and out of the Senate

Is the Larry Craig story starting to make anyone else uncomfortable? Don't get me wrong, I believe this scandal is definitely newsworthy: Craig did plead guilty after all, and a sitting US Senator who pleads guilty of anything requires coverage. This also reveals his social conservative stance to be so hypocritical that it should definitely be exposed. It is unconceivable for anyone to argue today that Craig's homosexuality is private behavior when Craig-type social conservatives believe that private acts of gay sex should be criminal offences (remember the outrage over the Lawrence v. Texas decision?).

That said, no one can deny that the details of this scandal are somewhat troubling. Not only do they reveal an unnecessary crack down on gay cruise spots (are bathrooms really the place airport cops should be sent to patrol in this day and age?), but the arrest itself was done on little to no evidence: Craig tapping his foot and putting his hand under the stall door - which is at the very worst a vague gesture of intent. I have little doubt what Craig was looking for, but that does not mean any process that makes him look guilty is defensible.

I am not at all convinced that the undercover officer was justified in arresting him, nor that these charges would have held in court. The police report, which I linked to earlier today, appears to be a classical example of police overreaching. The Politico's Roger Simon does a great job of debunking that report. He shows that the police officer drew quick conclusions basically because he was looking for a crime and was ready to construct one at all costs. After all, neither Craig's looking to see if there was someone in the stall, nor his taking his bag in the stall with him could possibly be regarded as that suspicious! So much of this could have been challenged if a defense attorney had looked into the case on behalf of Craig. But, as we know, Craig panicked at the thought of seeking counsel and making the charges public, and the police report stood unchallenged. And naturally, no one in the media is questioning the facts of the case. After all, what the police say is always truth.

The Republican reaction to this scandal is also quite scandalous. McCain and Coleman called for Craig's resignation today, before Craig was stripped of his committee assignments and while Romney completely abandoned his campaign's former Idaho chairman and declared his actions "disgusting." Yes, Craig has made an embarrassment of himself and of his party. Yes, he has demonstrated to what monstrous depths of self-loathing gay Republicans can stoop. But what in this case makes the Craig scandal more outrageous than Vitter's admission last month that he had used the services of a notorious DC prostitution ring? I do not recall McCain or Coleman calling for Vitter's resignation, nor Vitter being forced to resign from Senate committees. The major distinction between Craig and Vitter is that the latter acknowledged adulterous relations, while the former plead guilty to a misdemeanor. But I am somewhat doubtful that this is what accounts for the dramatically different levels of moral outrage awakened by the Vitter and Craig scandals. While this is certainly a shame, the fact of the matter is that Vitter was engaged in straight sex, while Craig was engaged in (gasp!) gay behavior - a much more devious and sinful vice for social conservatives.

Craig is responsible for much of what is happening to him. If he had been more open about his sexuality, none of this would have happened and he would not have to cruise sketchy public bathrooms for a quick blowjob. But we still have to acknowledge that the stigma of his sexuality is also what is getting him in so much trouble with this scandal - both because of the police officer's romanesque imagination when it comes to homosexual behavior and because of the Republican Party's basic homophobic instincts.

Afternoon Diary: Dodd gets major endorsement

Quiet days in presidential politics. The main news has been the unexpected report that the International Association of Fire Fighters is endorsing Chris Dodd. The IAFF was the first union to endorse Kerry in 2004, and it has significant political muscle in NH, Dodd's main hope for a breakthrough. Clinton was hoping to get the IAFF endorsement, so this is a minor blow to her campaign - minor because it could have been worse if the IAFF had endorsed Obama or Edwards. But this endorsement could make some people take a second look at the CT senator. Dodd does have, after all, a lenghty record on traditional Democratic issues. Much longer than the record of, say, Edwards, Obama or Clinton! Dodd's frustration at this not being recognized was evident at the Democratic labor debate in Chicago last month when Biden and him teamed up against Edwards to point out that Edwards might be talking a lot about poverty and labor, but that he had done very little actual work on these issues compared to either of them. It will be interesting to see whether the IAFF's endorsement helps Dodd push this argument further.

In other news:

• Romney is back up on TV in IA and NH, after a short advertisement break in mid-August. Romney has been the only major GOP candidate that has run ads in early states. This has worked wonders for him as he leads the rest of the field there very comfortably. But it also means he has been spending much more of his money early on. Unfortunately for him, he has little choice. He has very weak name recognition compared to McCain and Guliani and has to introduce himself to voters. The big question is how long can the other major GOP candidates afford to let Romney be the only one running ads? At what point does it start being too late to cut into Romney's lead?

• In what is unmistakable proof of his collapse, McCain is now registering only 23% in a poll of the Republican primary in his home state of Arizona. The same Arizona State University poll had McCain at 32% in April and 44% in February. Once again - this is McCain's home state we're talking about.

• I reported yesterday that the pace of Senate races was rapidly increasing, mostly to the advantage of Democrats who are expanding the playing field left and right. MSNBC takes it a step further by talking of a 60 seat fillibuster-proof Democratic Senate majority. While I am confident the Democrats will have a good year in 2008, 60 seats would mean a 9 seat-picking... which still seems more than extremely unlikely. Yet, there are many seats the GOP has to defend, the DSCC is crushing the NRSC in fundraising, and these stories about depressed Republicans and gleeful Democratic prospects are going to further hurt GOP morale, fundraising and recruitement.

• AL-Sen: Sen. Sessions looked pretty safe even before Democrats failed in their efforts to recruit their best hope Al Sparks. And the first poll of the campaign confirms that Sessions doesn't have much to worry about. He leads 59% to 37% against State Sen. Viviane Figures in a SUSA poll.

• The entertaining original police report of the Craig bathroom incident, as published by Slate. [It is worth pointing out that the details of this scandal are making a lot of people very uncomfortable, more to come later.]

How much influence will Florida have?

The big question mark of the primary season is shaping up to be Florida's influence. Set for January 29th, Florida will be the first huge state to vote, a week before other major states like CA, NY or IL join the fray. It seems obvious that whoever wins Florida will have significant momentum going in Tsunami Day on Feb. 5th. And with Clinton and Guiliani the favorites in FL (with leads that exceed their national ones, and with very significant organizational advantages), Florida is being described as their "firewall." If everything goes wrong in the early states -- at least there is Florida coming! A Guiliani campaign memo obtained yesterday by the Washington Post demonstrated his reliance on the Sunshine State; citing newspaper articles that explore Guiliani's FL advantage, the memo explains how the campaign plans on building on this advantage and making sure they close the door on competitors. This strategy is particularly worrysome for Edwards and Romney, the two candidates that rely the most on early states. Edwards faces a make-or-break Iowa, and Romney has built substantial leads in IA and NH. But a win there would not do them much good if they cannot build momentum in later states.

The first problem with the firewall strategy is the shifting calendar. Last week, Michigan leapfrogged ahead of FL to January 15th, which is pushing IA and NH in very early January. MI is the best Romney early state (his father was Governor), and it can certainly rival FL in "big state" status. Does Guiliani (and to a much lesser extent Clinton) really expect to go a full month from January 5th (IA) to January 29th losing contests and still be a frontrunner once he gets to Florida?!

The push forward by these other states could very well be the undoing of Florida's influence. The momentum a competitor would built in those three weeks would likely be very strong - as a point of comparison, Dean's double digit New Hampshire lead in 04 melted overnight after his Iowa debacle. This isn't to say Guiliani won't win the early states, but the drawn-out January calendar certainly puts in question his "I have Florida as a firewall if I lose the early states" strategy.

Now, add to this intrigue the warfare between the national parties and the state parties. Both the DNC and RNC rules state that no primary can be set for before Feb. 5th except for IA, NH, NV and SC. Florida is violating these rules, and the DNC was the first to threaten the state party with sanctions. The DNC announced last week it would strip Florida of all of its delegates. The Florida Dem party has no plans of doing so, and is now threatening to sue the DNC to get its delegates sitted! The RNC has now joined in, with its own plans of stripping Florida of its delegates.

This would end up making FL a "beauty contest," and many campaigns have indicated they would be reluctant to compete if the race offered them no delegates. With 20+ states coming up a week later, campaigns don't have the time or money to compete in a no-delegate primary. This would definitely reduce FL's influence dramatically. Rival campaigns would cede the state to Clinton and Guiliani without a fight and the media would cover the primary accordingly. They might get a slight bump, but it would not help them catch up in delegate numbers - and it would not provide them the strength of a secure firewall.

Major Senate developments... and it's not even September yet!

Many Senate races were supposed to heat up in September, with incumbents announcing their retirement plans and potential challengers declaring their candidacies. But this usually quiet end of August has proved quite explosive on the Senate front.

• Idaho

Idaho was on few people's radar screen, despite rumors that Craig would retire and the energetic candidacy of former Democratic Congressman Larry LaRocco. Yesterday night's revelations that Craig had plead guilty to lewd behavior in a man's bathroom stunned the political world and eclipsed news of Gonzales's resignation. To make matters worse for Craig - if that's even possible at this point - the Idaho Statesman finally released an article it has been working on for months which investigates rumors of Craig's homosexuality and uncovered more evidence of gay relations. Craig was forced to call a press conference and emphatically declare, "I am not gay.' Whenever a (social conservative) politician makes headline with such a quote, you know he is in deep trouble. And With the Republican leadership and the Romney campaign distancing themselves from Craig as fast as they can, it seems Craig will have little choice but to retire or resign.

Unfortunately, Democratic chances aren't very high in Idaho. Dems can only hope that Craig somehow stubbornly refuses to let go. If he were to run again, he would obviously be very vulnerable, and the scent of scandal could very well drive a Democrat to victory. But if the seat opens up as is likely, the Republicans have a very deep bench in Idaho. Lt. Gov. (and former Gov.) Jim Risch and Rep. Mike Simpson would have little trouble dispatching any Democrat in a state Bush won with 67% of the vote in 2004.

Nonetheless, the Craig scandal is awful news for the Republicans. Their morale is going down even further, and the party is sinking in heavy depression. And the NRSC definitely does NOT want to have to spend a single dime of its money defending a seat in Idaho of all places, when it will have so many endangered incumbents around the country.
And how many Republican sex scandals have there now been over the past few weeks? This is bound to end up affecting the GOP's image, especially among evangelicals who were so key to Bush's 2004 election. Remember Vitter? And most importantly, remember Bob Allen, the Florida Senator arrested for cruising public bathroom for gay sex? Yes, the Craig and Allen stories sound painfully alike! Today's hilarious Nation article "The GOP's bathroom problem" is a must read.


• Louisiana

The bad news of the day. Republicans have been looking for a challenger to Senator Landrieu for months now, and Rove had been begging state Treasurer John Kennedy (a Democratic candidate for the 2004 open Senate seat won by Vitter) to switch parties and challenge Landrieu. A few weeks ago, Kennedy announced he was running for Attorney General in this fall's election, which people took as a sign he would not run for Senate next year. But he announced today he was switching parties and becoming a Republican (a week before the filing deadline, which means Democrats only have a week to find a candidate to oppose him), and this has naturally fueld major speculation he will announce he is running for Senate later in the fall. Landrieu is by far the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008, and post-Katrina demographics are not going to make her job any easier. The only reason she did not seem that vulnerable was Republican recruitement failures, but Kennedy's jumping in the race would change that overnight.


• South Dakota

Democrats are very relieved about South Dakota tonight. The outlook of this race entirely depends on (a) whether Johnson runs again, (b) whether he looks minimally healthy if he does. If it seems that he is up to the job, the GOP will likely be unwilling (or rather unable) to mount an aggressive campaign against him, and their strongest candidate - Gov. Rounds - will take a pass. Well, Johnson started answering questions today with his first public appearance since December. In what was obviously a carefuly rehearsed event, he proclaimed "I am back" to cheering supporters. And he announced he is planning to run for re-election on ABC. Rounds was present at the event and Sen. Thune appeared via video. This, coupled with the fact that South Dakota papers seemed generally positive about Johnson's health situation, could signal that Johnson is getting a pass from the state GOP and the media.