SUSA surveys most competitive Senate races and finds Democrats in good shape

Awesome morning for political junkies, as SurveyUSA has just released a poll from the seven most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Democrats look very good in six of them, but Maine still looks out of reach. In order of vulnerability:

• Virginia

Mark Warner looks like a done deal. He has one of the best favorability rating of any candidate polled by SUSA (49% favorable versus 23% unfavorable), certainly better than his opponent Jim Gilmore's (21-31). Warner leads Gilmore by a massive 57% to 35% -- in line with other polls we have seen, and big enough for the GOP to not even try.

There have been small rumors that George Allen might still jump in the Senate race, but SUSA shows that he would still badly trail Warner, 52% to 42%.

• New Hampshire

Here is another race with the Democratic challenger up by double-digits. Former Governor Shaheen leads Senator Sununu 53% to 42%. Strengthening her lead are the internals that have Shaheen's favorability rating at a strong 46-33, while Sununu has a negative rating at 31-38.

• Colorado

This is the first independent poll of the race that has pushed undecideds, and it helped Democrat Udall have his first lead of the cycle as independents break for him. Udall has a narrow edge, 48% to 41%, against Republican Bob Schaeffer. Udall has a good favorability rating (30-19), but both men are mainly unknown statewide.

• New Mexico

SUSA did a strange job here, as they tried both Republicans (Pearce and Wilson) against Chavez, Denish and Richardson (the latter two have made it clear they are not running), but not against Tom Udall who is looking at the race now and who many see as a stronger candidate. But Democrats still get good news with Chavez, who leads both Republicans: 48% to 43% against Pearce and 48% to 44% against Wilson.

This is much better than the SUSA poll of the beginning of October when Chavez was crushed by Pearce. But SUSA confirms how much stronger Governor Richardson would be, as he leads Pearce 58 to 37% and Wilson 59% to 37%. Another interesting finding: Most candidates are either unknown or aren't very polarizing, but Heather Wilson has a very high unfavorable rating: 48%. Probably because of the attorney general scandal.

• Minnesota

Minnesota has not been polled a lot, but Senator Coleman already appeared under 50% in the few polls that have been released. But this latest survey has Coleman weaker than we have ever seen him. He is tied with Democrat Mike Ciresi at 44%, and is ahead by an insignificant point against Al Franken, 46% to 45%. One factor against Franken is his high unfavorable rating: 37%, against 22% favorable. Coleman also has 37% unfavorable, but 36% favorable. This should still comfort those who say Franken cannot be elected.

• Oregon

I believe this is the first poll of Oregon we have seen all year, and Democrats will be relieved that Senator Gordon Smith is as vulnerable as they thought. He is under 50% against both his Democratic opponents: 48% to 39% against Jeff Merkley and 45% to 39% against Steve Novick. Adding to this, both Democrats are huge unknowns (67% and 78% of voters are unfamiliar with them, respectively), so they certainly have a lot of room to grow.

• Maine

And then comes Maine, and the third poll in two weeks that has Susan Collins with a massive lead against Democratic challenger Rep. Tom Allen... and more importantly, above 50%. She is ahead of Allen 55% to 38%, and posts a strong favorability rating: 48% to 25%. Allen cannot even rely on the hope voters don't know him, as only 11% are unfamiliar with him.

All in all, Democrats lead in four races, are tied in another, have made a sixth vulnerable and have a long way to go in the last -- and this does not even account for possible hot races in NC, AK or KY.