Monday polls: Virginia is indeed a toss-up, and is it worth looking at Kansas?

It is one thing for David Ploufe to insist that the campaign does not need to win Ohio and Florida to get to the White House, it is quite another for pollsters to impose a seeming blackout on polls from these two mega-battleground states. No survey from either has been released since mid-May and in the meantime we got plenty of polls from states like Washington and just today two from New York. A new survey from Virginia released today keeps things interesting:

• Rasmussen finds that the presidential race in this traditional red state is a toss-up, with Obama edging McCain 45% to 44%. This is a small swing from last month's survey, in which McCain led by 3%.
• While McCain's favorability rating is a bit higher, Obama has a higher proportion of respondents who say they have a very favorable impression of him. However, the familiar pattern of Obama's very unfavorable rating also being much higher holds in this poll.

• In New York, two polls confirm the Democrat's overwhelming advantage. The Sienna poll has Obama leading 51% to 33%. He led by 11% last month and 5% two months ago.
• The New York Times poll, meanwhile, has Obama leading 51% to 32%.

• In Kansas, finally, Rasmussen finds McCain ahead 47% to 37%, down from a 21% lead last month.
• Obama has a mediocre favorability rating, however (49% versus 62% for McCain) and very low very unfavorables (31% versus 12% for McCain).
  

Of these polls, the Virginia survey is naturally the most interesting. While I did not hesitate to include it in the list of toss-ups in my first electoral college ratings, it is always somewhat of a shock when Obama performs so well in a poll from the Commonwealth. This is, after all, a state that has not voted for a Democrat since 1964. Yet, Rasmussen's poll is certainly not a surprise. The latest SUSA poll showed Obama leading by 8% three weeks ago and Obama has made no secret that flipping it will be one of his priorities, so far so that there are 3 potential VP picks that come from the state (Webb, Kaine and Warner). He even organized his first general election campaign stop in Virginia. There is no question that McCain losing this state would make it very hard for him to get to 270 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot polls found some interesting results as well:

• In Virginia, Mark Warner is widening his lead over Jim Gilmore and is now ahead 60% to 33% in Rasmussen's poll! Warner has a 70% favorability rating compared to 46% for Gilmore... and don't forget this is a GOP-held seat!

• Dems get more good news in Louisiana, where Mary Landrieu is up 49% to 33% in a new poll. However -- and this is a big one -- this is an internal poll conducted for and released by the Landrieu campaign. But until Kennedy responds with his own poll (and he did release an internal showing him ahead in December), this is positive for Landrieu.

• In Kansas, meanwhile, Pat Roberts continues to post surprisingly low numbers for an incumbent that no one is really paying attention to. After 3 polls from 3 different polling groups showing him up 12% against former Rep. Slattery, Rasmussen's latest survey finds the incumbent under 50% and in single-digits, leading 47% to 38%.
• Roberts's favorability rating remains high, however, at 60%.

• In Nevada, Mason-Dixon polled two House races (both currently held by Republicans) and found good news for both parties. In NV-01, Rep. Porter and Dina Titus in a toss-up with the incumbent up 45% to 42%. Porter's job approval is a dismal 36% to 56%. Note that Titus ran a statewide gubernatorial race in 2006, so she is better-known than your average House challenger.
  
• In NV-02, Rep. Dean Heller has a much strong lead against Democrat Jill Derby in a rematch of their 2006 race. Heller is up 53% to 39%.

• In TX-10, a poll taken for the Democratic challenger in a race few people have on their radar screen (and which I confess I have not included in my latest House ratings) shows the incumbent Mike McCaul leading Democrat Larry Doherty 43% to 34%.
  
• As SSP points out, an independent poll from IRV that I managed to miss just last week has Doherty trailing by only 6%, 52% to 46%. Doherty's decision to release a poll today that shows him faring a bit worse is no doubt due to his desire to prove that the IRV survey was not an outlier and that TX-10 is indeed competitive.
  

• Finally, a poll from New York's gubernatorial race of... 2010, which will interest everyone given how chaotic the state political scene has been lately. This is also important because whether Mike Bloomberg decides he should run will determine whether he tries to change the term limits law in NYC in the coming months. The Sienna poll referred to above has Bloomberg ahead 45% to 34% in a match-up against recently promoted Governor Paterson (who is not that much ahead of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary).

The Kansas Senate race is too me the most interesting poll of this group because it confirms -- and accentuates -- the results of three polls that have been released in close proximity (here, here and here). Looking at the latest Rasmussen polls of the second and third-tier of Senate races, Roberts now looks weaker than Dole and Cornyn and he has repeatedly polled lower than Sen. Collins ever has in Maine (well there was one poll showing her leading by only 10%)! Even Chuck Schumer, when trying to tout his attempts to expand the map, refers to Oklahoma more readily than Kansas. So at one point does the DSCC start looking in Kansas's direction? Given Schumer's determination to test the vulnerability of incumbents, it would not be a surprise if the DSCC conducts a poll and sends in a few staffers.

Senate: NRSC's move towards giving up VA and NM, plus a variety of polls

Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, has been setting a lot of expectations lately. After declaring that his goal for the year was to prevent the Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof majority (and thus limit the loss to eight seats), Ensign has now shifted to a wiser refrain: It will be good news, he explained, if the GOP only loses three seats in November. But at this same lunch with reporters, Ensign made some news by taking the first step towards giving up on Virginia and New Mexico. "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win," he said.

An NRSC decision that a race should no longer merits investments would go a long way towards sealing a seat's fate, for both Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore will need the help of the national party to keep up with the momentum that is carrying their Democratic opponents. In 2006, the NRSC's decision to pull out of Ohio effectively handed the election to Sharrod Brown who coasted to an unexpectedly easy victory over the incumbent Republican.

Another interesting tidbit in Ensign's comments is his list of the 10 most competitive races. Ensign includes North Carolina and Maine and does not even make a stab at spin by putting in New Jersey (though Collins is polling better than Lautenberg at this point). Yet, there is no sign of Mississippi! Despite the fact that (1) Ronnie Musgrove has been leading Senator Wicker in a number of polls, (2) despite predictions of increased black turnout, (3) despite the fact that party affiliations will not be printed on the ballot and (4) despite Travis Childers's victory in MS-01 last month, Mississippi continues to be treated as a long shot by most analysts. This attitude is indeed not exclusive to Ensign. Even Chuck Schumer rated MS a third-tier race in a recent interview. What more does Musgrove need to do to prove that this Southern special election is among the hottest races of the country?

Meanwhile, 5 new Senate polls were released in the past two days, only two of which concern competitive races. Here are these polls, in the order in which the contests are ordered in my latest Senate rankings:

• In Minnesota, Norm Coleman edges out Al Franken 48% to 45%, a similar margin than his 2% lead last month.
• Rasmussen also polled a three way match-up including former Governor Jesse Ventura. Coleman leads 39% to 32% to Franken and 24% to Ventura, who (as is expected) takes votes from the challenger.

• In Oregon, Jeff Merkley got no bounce from his primary victory as he now trails incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith 47% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Last month, Smith was ahead by 3% -- though Democrats ought to be satisfied that they are keeping Smith under 50%.

• In Kansas, Cooper & Secrest Associates released a poll of the Senate race that is the third consecutive survey showing Pat Roberts leading his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Slattery, by 12% and the first one in which he dips under the 50% mark, leading 48% to 36%.

• In Iowa, Senator Harkin is leading challenger Christopher Reed 53% to 37% and posting a favorability rating of 59% in a new Rasmussen survey.
  

• In Michigan, finally, no surprises in the latest Rasmussen poll that has Senator Carl Levin leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 55% to 30%. Hoogendyk is largely unknown but Levin has a strong favorability rating, making him an unlikely target.
  

Of these 5 races, Minnesota and Oregon are the two interesting ones. Despite the repeated polls showing some potential for Slattery and despite the GOP's (thwarted) determination early this cycle to field a credible challenger to Harkin, these two races have a long way to go before joining the list of competitive races, though the DSCC might hope that Kansas Democrats will be more enthused than usual if Governor Sebelius is tapped on Obama's ticket.

In Minnesota, despite the media firestorm that has recently been surrounding Al Franken years as a comedian and the unexpected difficulties that popped up on his way to the DFL's endorsement, the Democratic challenger is holding strong, suggesting that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent and on the Republican Party. With Minnesota showing signs of moving back to its solidly Democratic roots, Coleman will remain endangered and he should worry if he could not open up a bigger margin after such a favorable month of press coverage. As for the Jesse Ventura question, the former Governor has declared that he will make up his mind at the last minute. The filing deadline is mid-July so we will have to wait a few more weeks to see whether Ventura will wreak havoc in this senatorial race.

Poll roundup: Missouri looks like a toss-up, and testing Sen. Roberts

Given how obsessively we have all been following the Clinton-Obama race for 18 months now, it is strange to think that we will soon go entire days without mentioning Clinton's name once or including her in blog posts. Here is a poll roundup post, for instance, with no survey testing Clinton's name! I am offering this little prelude to ease your way into this post-Clinton election season, one with new code words and constituencies to watch.

The first noteworthy poll of the day is CBS's latest national poll that shows Bush's approval rating has sank to 25%. I have never monitored the president's ratings nor will this be a recurrent feature, but this is the lowest number even attained by President Bush, who has now gone under Nixon's 26%. He still needs to beat Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter, however. The data's relevance to the general election is obvious. We all know that McCain has been able to distance himself from Republican woes surprisingly well and that he is quite possibly the only candidate his party could have nominated that would not automatically have sank because of the national environment. Yet, there is only so much that even a politician like McCain can do and the lower Bush's approval rating remains (or falls further) the hardest it will be for the Arizona Senator to mount a credible campaign over the next 6 months.

Second, we have a series of general election polls from important states:

• Rasmussen released numbers from Missouri and finds Obama edging out McCain 43% to 42%. This is a great trendline for the Democrat, as he trailed by 5% last month and by 15% in March.

• In Kansas, Research 2000 found McCain surprisingly low, leading 51% to 40%.

• In West Virginia, finally, Rasmussen has a surprisingly tight race with McCain ahead 45% to 38%. Obama suffers from a disastrous approval rating (40% favorable, 58% unfavorable).

This is the second Missouri poll this week to show Obama edging out McCain, the first having been released by SUSA. This is a favorable turnaround for the Illinois Senator. As the trendlines of the Rasmussen and SUSA polls indicate, he had been trailing in the past few months -- by narrow margins, yes, but constantly enough to warrant my rating Missouri as a "lean McCain" state in my first electoral college ratings. With Florida potentially out of reach, Obama needs to demonstrate that he has an ample reach elsewhere and the Midwest looks within reach. Also, if Obama is able to be highly competitive in Missouri (something Kerry gave up on early), it speaks well of his chances in Ohio.

Finally, we close with two congressional polls from two races that clearly lean Republican:

• In the Kansas Senate race, Research 2000's survey is now the second poll to find Senator Roberts in an unexpectedly competitive race. Sure, he leads former Rep. Slattery 50% to 38% but this is a very Republican state and a state almost no one has been talking about.

• In OH-07, an open seat in which the top Democrat declined to run noting that chances of victory were too small, an internal poll conducted for Democratic candidate Neuhart finds him trailing state Senator Auria 41% to 35%. Bush won the district with 57%, so it is not as conservative as some of the other open seats Democrats won this spring.
  
• However, this is definitely the type of poll meant to make a candidate look good (as a further question is asked after biographical information is read), so take the results with a grain of salt.

Such polls do have an effect on campaigns as they get the attention of national Democrats. With a Rasmussen poll and now a Research 2000 survey finding Roberts barely at the 50% threshold, Chuck Schumer will probably move to test the incumbent's vulnerability, commission a poll himself and see whether it is worth sending a few staffers. And with the decline of Minnesota as a pick-up opportunity, Democrats will be looking to expand the map even further to guarantee a large number of take-overs and keep open the (small but existent) possibility of a 60-seat majority.

Saturday polls: (Tom) Udall coasts, and an opening in Kasnsas?

Rasmussen continues releasing polls at an accelerated rhythm, providing a useful picture of what the electoral map looks like 6 months from the election -- both at the presidential and senatorial level. Yesterday, they showed Senator Stevens struggling in Alaska, while Obama was surprisingly competitive there, being trounced in Kansas and Arkansas but putting Washington away. Today, new polls point to interesting results.

First, a general election poll from New Mexico suggests Democrats have an early edge in a state that narrowly went for Bush in 2004:

• Obama leads John McCain 50% to 41%, while Clinton leads 47% to 41%. This is a significant improvement for both Democrats over last month's numbers.
  
• Obama is also enjoying a superior favorable rating, 58% including 33% very favorable versus 50% including 14% very favorable for McCain.

While New Mexico represents only 5 electoral votes, both parties want to lay a claim on the Southwest, where 3 states (Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico) will be in play. If Obama manages to get strong support among Hispanics -- more than Kerry did in 04 and certainly more than he did in the primaries -- he could pick up a lot of electoral votes in the region and prepare Democratic gains in these fast-growing states in the year to come.

It's also worth taking a quick look at the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, since we have not for a while:

• Gallup's poll shows Obama opening his largest lead in a while against Hillary, 51% to 42%. In the general, however, he is continuing to struggle, led 47% to 44% against McCain while Clinton is ahead 47% to 45%.
• Rasmussen finds McCain edging out Obama 45% to 44%. Despite professing that they will stop polling Clinton for 10 days now, they are still doing so: Obama is ahead only 46% to 44%. Clinton and McCain are tied at 44%.

Finally, Rasmussen released two important Senate polls, one confirming what we already knew in New Mexico and the second showing a slightly surprising result in Kansas, where Senator Roberts might not be as safe as we might have thought:

• In New Mexico, this week's second poll confirms that Tom Udall is coasting to picking-up this open seat. Against Heather Wilson, Udall leads 57% to 36%. Against Steve Pearce, he leads 53% to 37%. The margins were actually even bigger in SUSA's poll.

Expect the race to tighten once the GOP choose its nominee and once the nastiness of the Republican primary stops. But there is no question that Udall is starting with an impressive lead and it will be hard for Republicans to even find the resources to make this truly competitive. As for Kansas:

• Senator Roberts is leading his Democratic opponent, former congressman Jim Slattery 52% to 40%.

While Roberts does not appear particularly threatened for now (up double-digits, above 50% and enjoying a 60% favorability rating, important measures of an incumbent's support), there is no doubt that these numbers have to be disappointing to the NRSC. This is not a race that is on anyone's radar, ranked 22nd in my latest Senate rankings. Democrats were happy that Slattery jumped in the race, as they at least got a decent candidate, so for Roberts to come in at 52% is not very reassuring. More than point at Roberts' vulnerability, this polls shows how toxic the environment is for Republicans. Despite a 60% favorability rating, superior to Slattery's, the incumbent trails among unaffiliated voters by 3 percent, and this is in Kansas.

Even when they like their particular incumbent, it looks like independents are massively looking to bolt from the Republican Party, and it is revealing of how much appeal McCain has that he is able to hold on to them. This is why Democrats have been so successful in the three special elections this spring and why even Republicans like Roberts should be worried. Chuck Schumer has actually talked about this race before, and you can be sure that he will jump in and pour money to test Roberts' vulnerability if there is any sign that he can be lowered under 50%. This is a presidential year and Roberts' remains popular, so don't hold your breath but still telling of the playing field being clearly tilted towards Democrats.

Democrats get new Senate candidates left and right

The hottest Senate news in the past week have undoubtedly come from New Mexico. Pete Domenici announced his surprise retirement, followed in quick succession by Republican Rep. Heather Wilson announcing a run and Democratic Rep. Mark Udall announced he would not. Today, Democrats seem on the verge of getting one of their strong candidates in the race: Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez is likely to announce tomorrow morning that he will run for the seat.

This guarantees Democrats have a strong candidate in the race, though the DSCC is also trying to convince Lieutenant Govenor Diane Denish to forego her plans to run for governor in 2010 and jump in the Senate race. Many Dems see Denish not only as more competitive, but also as more progressive. Chavez is not liked by Democratic activists because of his friendship with property developers in Albuquerque, and New Mexico is certainly not one of the red states in which a liberal Dem would have trouble winning.

Also very interesting is Chavez's assessment that Rep. Pearce, not Wilson, would be the strongest GOP candidate. The general sense is that Pearce might be too conservative to win a statewide race. Steve Pearce has still not announced his plans, and whether he will run against Wilson in the primary, but he says he is nearing his decision. Another GOPer, Pat Lyons, is also considering a run. This could set up a situation in which both Democrats and Republicans have a competitive primary.

In North Carolina, Democrats finally get a candidate in the form of an unknown investment banker from Chapel Hill, Jim Neal. The DSCC has been trying to get someone to run against Elizabeth Dole for months, and finally have someone in... Though they probably would prefer a candidate with political experience or some name recognition. While Neal starts as a tremendous underdog, he is comparing himself to John Edwards in 1998, a candidate with little experience who snatches a Senate seat. State Rep. Martin is still said to be looking at the race, and he could prove a stronger candidate against Dole.

Finally, Robert Novak reports that the DSCC is trying to expand the map even more to three states few people are paying attention to:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), in his second term running the Senate Democratic campaign, publicly expresses doubt about picking up an additional nine seats to achieve a filibuster-free Senate. But he has been soliciting popular Democratic governors from Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming to run against incumbent Republican Senators from those "red" states - perhaps even to win the magic nine seats. The problem is that these governors do not relish running with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

Any of these three governors entering a Senate race would be huge recruitment coups for Democrats and would clearly push Republicans in a state of complete panic, for they would have way too many seats in play to even think about. All three post very high approval ratings, and would make a Senate seat very competitive. Naturally, they all seem very unlikely (why leave a safe job for a risky Senate run), but none of them would have to leave their post to run which would mean they would have a pretty good fall-back position if their Senate bid were to fail. As for the worry about Clinton on top of the ticket, many articles have been written about a negative Clinton effect in down-the-ballot races but where does that come from? Is Edwards going to win Wyoming? Most polls out for now show Clinton with very decent numbers in red states: in fact, a poll last week from Oklahoma show Clinton only trailing 47-44.

Meanwhile, we still wait for Bob Kerrey...