House: No family feud in NY-13, VA-11 gets settled

In a disappointing finish to a farcical storyline, the race in New York's 13th congressional district just got a bit less traumatizing for Republicans. They have caught no break in this contest ever since Vito Fossella was arrested on DWI charges, as they have suffered through the incumbent retiring in disgrace, Democrats fielding one of their best opponents, the strongest Republican contenders declining to run, the Staten Island GOP being forced to settle for a second-tier candidate and that candidate's son announcing that he would run as the Libertarian candidate, making sure that no one would be able to take his father's candidacy seriously.

But yesterday, the Libertarian Party's Manhattan chapter (which also controls Staten Island) voted to give is nod to Susan Overeem. The chapter's spokesman explained that "has the better grasp of what it meant to be a Libertarian." This removes the threat of the ballot being shared by a Francis M. Powers and a Francis H. Powers and will allow the Republican candidate to campaign without having to continually answer the charges voiced by his son (who seemed quite determined to see his father lose). This in itself is a relief for the GOP who will fight hard to avoid extinction in New York State.

Democrats remain favored to this seat. Not only was the recruitment success of the two candidates clearly unbalanced but it will be hard for Republicans to survive in any open seat that is remotely competitive at the presidential level.

Another such district is VA-11, vacated by Rep. Tom Davis and at the top of every Democrat's target list. Northern Virginia has been rapidly trending Democratic and it is responsible for Tim Kaine's election in 2005 an Jim Webb's in 2006. Yet, the strength of the dispute between former Rep. Leslie Byrne and Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, threatened the Democrats' confidence. Byrne, who occupied this seat from 1992 to 1994 and who lost a close race for Lieutenant Governor in 2005, ran a liberal campaign to remain relevant versus the machine of Connolly, who portrayed himself as a moderate Democrat.

Last night, Virginia voters went to the polls (turnout was only 5%) and gave a resounding victory to Connolly, who thus becomes the Democratic nominee for the general election and the favorite to succeed Tom Davis. He will face Republican businessman Keith Fimian, whose principal strength is that he could self-fund his candidacy in an expensive media market and thus keep the race somewhat competitive. But it would be a big upset surprise if Connolly were to lose. Northern Virginia has been the Democrats' beacon of hope for years and they have been impatiently waiting for Davis to step down to seize this seat.

Democrats dejected that Virginia Democrats lost an opportunity to elect a more progressive politician might be comforted by the primary results in Maine's 1st district, where Chellie Pingree survived a late push by Adam Cote, who ran a more moderate campaign. This seat, left vacant by Tom Allen's senatorial run, is the more Democratic of Maine's two districts which positions Pingree well to defeat Republican Charles Summers and become the first woman to be elected in this district. Note that this primary was essentially a general election and -- to further heighten the stakes -- a probable stepping stone for a Senate candidacy once Sen. Snowe, Sen. Collins or Sen. Allen retire (well if Allen wins in November he is unlikely to retire for a while, but you get my point).

House GOP loses three more members, and Kentucky filing deadline marked by last-minute chaos

It seems blasphemous to cover anything but the presidential races right now given the high drama of both the Democratic and Republican races right now (though the GOP contest will be much less exciting from now on), but it's hard to ignore that still more Republican-held House seats have opend up since Monday.

VA-11: I first reported on rumors of Tom Davis's imminent retirement on Monday, and it is now being confirmed. VA-11 shoots up to the very top of Democratic opportunities, and Leslie Byrne, the Democratic candidate, carried the district handily in her statewide campaign for Lieutenant governship in 2005. Check the analysis of VA-11 I wrote on Monday.

MO-Gov and MO-09: Governor Blunt's unexpected retirement last week prompted Republican confusion, and there has been a lot of jockeying around among the state GOP. With statewide officials already in the race, all eyes were on the state's representatives. Would any of them seek to win the Governor's mansion and leave their seat open? On Monday, Kenny Hulshof from MO-09 announced she was jumping in the gubernatorial race. That gives Republicans a strong candidate to take on Democratic Attorney General Nixon for governor, but it means one more House seat to defend. Fortunately for the GOP, MO-09 leans Republican, so it does not represent a gigantic headache for Republicans; but it is definitely the type of district Democrats had some success in at the last midterms.

Chaos in KY-02: As if Rep. Ron Lewis's retirement was not shocking enough, but the manner in which he did it is just stunning. The filling deadline in Kentucky was expiring yesterday at 4pm, and Ron Lewis had let out no sign that he was planning on retiring. Minutes before the deadline, the wife of his chief of staff Daniel London went to the SOS office to withdraw Lewis's name and file papers for London instead! Lewis's ploy to get his chief of staff nominated failed as state Sen. Brett Guthrie had somehow heard of the possibility of this happening and was also waiting at the SOS's office. Guthrie immediately filed his own candidacy papers, setting up a Guthrie v. London primary. (Read the detailed wrap-up of this ridiculous ploy over at CQPolitics).

In any case, KY-02 is now an open seat. And Democrats have a strong candidate in the race, state Senator David Boswell, who had filed thinking he would compete against Lewis. (Democrats must be very relieved they made sure to file a candidate here). KY-02 is a strongly Republican district. Bush prevailed here with about 65% of the vote, though Lewis only got 55% in 2006 in an under-the-radar race that the underfunded Democrat kept surprisingly close. Republicans are favored, but it is unclear at this point how strong Brett Guthrie might be in the general election, so we will have to keep a close watch on this race.

KY-03: Republicans got some good news in another Kentucky race, as former Rep. Northup jumped in the 3rd district race against John Yarmuth, who defeated her in 2006. This had also been rumored for the past week or two, but Northup's intentions had not been fully confirmed. KY-03 is a good district for Democrats, and Yarmuth will likely keep it for a few cycles if he manages to beat the well-known Northup next year. It is worth noting that Northup lost the GOP's gubernatorial primary last year against incumbent Fletcher, though the moderate credential that did her in in that primary are likely to play well in the KY-03 general election.

KY-Sen: Kentucky's Senate contest was the hottest race this November, where the DSCC was pushing hard to get Treasurer Luallen or AG Stumbo to jump in the race. Both announced they would not run since then, and now that the filing deadline passed the field is set. The Democrats filed attorney Andrew Horne, businessman Greg Fisher and a last-minute addendum is Bruce Lunsford who lost the gubernatorial primary in 2007 to now-Governor Beshear. Lunsford is a centrist Democrat who is distrusted by his party's activists, so it is unclear what the dynamics of this primary will be. There is no question that the field is much weaker than it could have been, and that the DSCC did not do well at recruiting here.

House diary: Has Tom Davis finally reached a decision?

Tom Davis has been taking a lot of time to decide whether he wants another term in the House. Davis, who had prepared himself for years to run for Senate, had to withdraw from the Senate race earlier in the fall when the state GOP chose to hold a convention rather than a primary to settle on its nominee. That gave too much of an edge to former Governor Gilmore and Davis announced he would not run for higher office.

But that did not answer the question of whether he would run for re-election in VA-11, and the speculation only intensified after his wife was crushed in her re-election campaign to the Virginia House of Delegates -- underscoring just how blue that area of Northern Virginia is trending.

Now, reports are coming in (via NLS, especially) that Tom Davis has decided to retire; he will reportedly make this announcement at the end of the week. This open seat could be one of the biggest headaches for House Republicans yet, as VA-11 looks to be trending too Democratic at this point for the NRCC to attempt a credible defense of the seat. Not to mention that the Democratic candidate, former Rep. Leslie Byrne, is a strong and credible contender who the party is excited about.

If it is confirmed in the coming days, Davis's retirement would be one of the biggest blows yet to the GOP's prospects in the House. More soon.

Democrats got more good news this week-end as the first public independent poll of the Wyoming At-Large seat -- one of the most Republican districts in the country -- gives a small edge to the Democrat. The poll is a Mason-Dixon survey and is thus very reliable. It has Democrat Gary Trauer edging out Republican Cynthia Lummis 41% to 40%. Trauer lost a nail-biter to Rep. Cubin in 2006. But because Cubin has always been an unpopular figure, her retirement earlier in the fall was seen as good news for the GOP.

Yet, it looks like Republicans will have trouble defending this open-seat. Trauer and Lummis have equivalent name recognition, so that is not helping either of them right now. The big problem for Trauer, of course, is how he can go from 41% to 50%. In a very red state in a presidential year, it will not be easy to get those extra points to a majority.

Congressional news: Speculating about Tom Davis, and polls of Senate races

Now that OH-05 has been resolved and that the GOP is celebrating, the political world can turn its attention back to other congressional races.

Starting with Virginia's 11th district. The last we heard from Tom Davis, his wife was crushed in her re-election campaign to the Virginia House of Delegates, losing by a large margin in a blue-trending area. But is Davis himself running for re-election?

He had been preparing for years to run for Senate, and his time appeared to have come when John Warner retired. But Davis ended up withdrawing from the race when former Governor Jim Gilmore made clear he would challenge Davis and the state committee decided to choose its nominee via a convention not a primary. Since then, there has been a ton of speculation as to whether Davis will be running for re-election in the House after all -- but nothing definte.

And now comes news that Tom Davis held a major political fundraiser tonight, which would indicate that he is running again. He already has $1 million in the bank as of the end of the third quarter -- and why would he be raising more money if he did not intend to run next year? That would actually be quite surprising at this point, as most rumors have had Davis leaning towards retirement, especially after his wife's loss.

On the other hand, Davis is still refusing to say whether he will run again, and mid-December is not a time representatives still hesitate if they are sure they are running. VA-11 is blue-trending territory in Northern Virginia, and it will be pretty much impossible for Republicans to keep if Davis bows out. Even if he runs again, it will probably be a tight race. You can be sure the NRCC is trying to convince Davis to stay in.

We also got two Senate polls this evening, though I'm not sure how much stock to put in either:

• A poll from Colorado was reported tonight on Colorado Confidential, and it says Mark Udall is up 2% on Bob Shaffer. The poll was conducted by Research for Change, Inc.

What is strange to me about the poll is not the result -- it is very much what we have seen in every Colorado poll, and the race is definitely a toss-up, contrary to most people's expectations -- but the way the group that conducted it is spinning the results, as the internals reported insist on Udall's strength among his base and his appeal to moderates and Republicans, as well as on Shaffer's weakness among his base. Reading the description, one could believe that Udall was found to lead by 10%! In any case, the bottom line is that Colorado is tight.

The second poll comes to us from Idaho, and was conducted in mid-November for state Rep. Nicole LeFavour, a Democrat who was considering entering the race and decided not to shortly after. Some of the results were just leaked, and they are slightly encouraging for Democrats:

• In a generic ballot test, a "Democratic candidate" beats a "Republican candidate" 42% to 36%.
• In the name ballot, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch defeats Democrat LaRocco 48% to 34%.

No one expects Idaho at the top of Democratic opportunities, and at this point I think Republicans are pretty safe -- the seat is ranked pretty far down in my latest Senate Rankings. But with numbers like this LaRocco can certainly hope to keep things competitive: Risch, who is much better known, is under 50% -- and the very red state is clearly not very happy with the GOP right now. Remember that Governor Otter barely won the open governshorship last year, showing that Republicans can't take things for granted.

While Risch is heavily favored, Democrats can at least hope to force the RSCC to defend the state and spend valuable resources here. Expanding the map has always been the name of the game for the DSCC.

Virginia Republicans deal a blow to Tom Davis and to House Democrats

The Republican Party's Virginia Central Committee just voted 47-37 to settle on its nominee for the open Senate seat at a party convention rather than through a primary. This is a blow to Rep. Tom Davis and a victory for former Governor Jim Gilmore.

Davis is by far the more moderate of the two, and he comes from the Northern part of the state - the region that has single-handedly made Democrats competitive in Virginia over the past few years. Davis would be much less likely to get the GOP nod at a convention than he would be through a primary, and the Committee's decision was essentially a first round between the two presumptive candidates.

A blow for Tom Davis is good news for Democrat Mark Warner, as Davis is regarded as the much more competitive general election candidate. Davis could cut into the Democrat's lead in Northern part of the state and appeal to moderates much better than Gilmore. But Warner does not need this to be considered the overwhelming favorite. He already leads by 30% in the Washington Post poll released the other day.

But this is also a potential blow to House Democrats! Tom Davis might not want to jeopardize his safe House seat if he is not even likely to get the Republican nomination (though the timing of the convention might perhaps allow him to wait for the convention's outcome and still run for the House). Everyone has been assuming that VA-11 will be an open seat next year, and Democrats are already celebrating as VA-11 would definitely lean Democratic if Davis was not the GOP candidate.

House Republicans already have to defend so many open seats in marginal districts next year (NM-01, OH-15, AZ-01...) that they would love not having to worry about VA-11. Today's decision makes it possible they might have their wish granted.

• Rossi and Gregoire, round 2

In other down-the-ballot news, the Washington Governor's race was decided weeks after Election Day in 2004, as Democrat Gregoire finally prevailed after a second round against Republican Rossi. The GOP never acknowledged they had lost the race, and Gregoire started out with very low approval ratings. Polls taken in early 2005 showed Gregoire would lose a rematch by a significant margin, but she has recovered since then. Rossi is very likely to announce a run soon, and Washington will be one of the only competitive governor races in 2008.

A new poll by Strategic Vision (a Republican polling form) has the race at a complete toss-up, with Gregoire leading 47% to 45%.

Breaking - A Senate AND a House seat open up in VA as Warner retires. Huge opening for Democrats!

In what is the best news so far for Democrats in the 2008 entire Senate cycle (yes, better even than the Craig scandal), Virginia's GOP Senator John Warner has announced he is retiring from the Senate. He had called a press conference for today at 2pm, and just announced his decision!

This had been rumored for quite a while now, and most people expected this announcement. (Check how the Daily Progress was covering it this morning.) But Warner had managed to keep everyone guessing. He had raised almost no money (usually a sure sign an incumbent is preparing to retire) and, at 80, was approaching an age at which many Senators quit. But he was also maintaining a very active presence in the Senate, most notably on Iraq, leading many to question the conventional wisdom that he would retire.

But this also means that a competitive House seat will open up, as GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who is widely expected to jump in the Senate primary, will have to retire from his house seat. Davis's seat is very competitive and as swing a district as swing districts get in Virginia. This is obviously a huge opening for Democrats, since it is precisely in the type of seat Davis holds that they made huge gains in VA in 2005 and 2006.

Back to the Senate: This is a huge blow to the Republican Party. John Warner running for re-election would have made the seat safe. Instead, this catapults the race at the very top of Democrat pick-up opportunities. Former Governor Mark Warner, who left office in 2005 with high approval ratings, is said to be extremely interested in the race, and the DSCC will push as hard as it can to recruit him. If he gets in the race, Democrats would start off favored to take this seat. Republicans will likely split in a very nasty primary between Rep. Davis from the Northern part of the state and former Governor Gilmore. Davis is one of the most moderate Republicans in the house - and many in the GOP will likely ferociously oppose him and rally behind Gilmore. And while Davis has raised much more money, the nomination might be decided at a party convention instead of a primary which would dramatically favor Gilmore.

Thus, the big question now is whether Mark Warner runs. Many within the VA Dem Party are pressuring him to pass on the Senate race and run for Governor in 2009 instead. The Examiner reports on Warner's dilemma, and notes that Warner's wife and daughter are said to favor a Senate run. Sure to influence Warner is the fact that Virginia governors cannot run for re-election immediately after their term is over (they can comeback later), which wuold mean that Warner, if he was elected Governor, would be out of a job by 2013... too far ahead of the 2016 presidential elections which he is said to be looking at.

Also, Warner is clearly on top of the vice-presidential contenders for the 2008 ticket – running for Senate would mean removing him from VP consideration. Yet, conventional wisdom is that he is ready to jump in. Here is The Daily Progress's take on Warner's decision:

Key Democrats said Thursday that Mark Warner, an Alexandria Democrat who served as governor from 2002 to 2006, is expected to run for the Senate next year, providing that the senior Warner, no relation, announces his retirement. Mark Warner’s political schedule for September includes the traditional Labor Day parade in Buena Vista as well as events later Monday in Covington and Newport News. “I think that Mark will run for the Senate if John Warner steps aside,” said state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County.

Republicans are facing an increasing number of endangered seats: CO, MN, NH, OR, ME and now VA. Others could still add themselves to the list...

Also, we are being told that Senator Webb has scheduled a press conference to follow Warner's.

Check Virginia blog Not Larry Sabato for more coverage.

Update
Check out Marc Ambinder's take on Warner's retirement's impact on the presidential race.

Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia. Both Mark Warner and Sen. James Webb are considered by the politigensia to be potential vice presidential picks this year. Needless to say, Warner would take himself out of consideration by running for Senate. Will Webb be more attractive, or less attractive, if as a running mate in Warner is on the ballot? It's not clear.

Interesting take. While I had mentioned that Warner's Senate candidacy would remove him from VP contenders, Ambinder thinks his running for Senate could be as helpful for Democrats in the presidential race.