Evening Diary: Warner prepares high-stakes announcement

• Virginia: Is John Warner running for re-election?

Tomorrow will be a huge day for Senate news. Virginia's Senator John Warner has called a press conference at 2pm to announce whether or not he will run for re-election. This announcement is going to likely decide whether Virginia has a Democratic or Republican Senator come 2008: If he runs again, John Warner will likely face only token competition; but if he retires, Democratic will have a significant edge in the state because of the likely candidacy of former Governor Mark Warner.

So is he or isn't he? Amazingly, (John) Warner has managed to maintain the suspense, as there have been no leaks or credible indications of what he is going to announce. The conventional wisdom over the past few weeks has been that Warner would retire, but the Politico quoted Virginia Republicans today that expected Warner to run again. Warner has not acted like a politician running for re-election and has raised very little money, fueling speculations he is on his way out.

Check Campaign Diaries tomorrow afternoon to find out whether Democrats can expect to pick up this seat, or whether it has become a lost cause.

• Iowa Caucus

I reported earlier today that ARG's Republican poll showed Romney up 10% on Guiliani, with a stunning thirteen point rise to 14%. Later in the day, a ONE poll had very interesting numbers for the Republican contest:

• Romney leads with 35%, followed by Giuliani at 12% and Thompson and Huckabee tied at 11%. Just like in the ARG poll, McCain has collapsed in the single digits.

First off, Huckabee does seem to be on fire. He is in a virtual tie for second place, and has catapulted himself very near the first tier on the strenght of his Ames second-place alone. But the most important lesson of this poll is Thompton and Giuliani's weakness - much more so than Romney's strength. Giuliani and Thompson are not only behind, but they are also posting atrocious numbers. They're almost in single-digits!

Clearly, their decision to skip the August Straw Poll is hurting them badly. The Iowa Republican are punishing those who skipped Ames, and rewarding those who showed up. Can Giuiliani and Thompson recover from the impression that they are neglecting Iowa? Or is the Iowa electorate set up snubbing them right back?

• The Bathroom Scandal

Republicans are continuing to pressure Craig to resign. Today, NRSC Chairman Ensign joined many House members and a few Senators and called for Craig to step down, realizing that this scandal would likely not have any impact on the 2008 Senate races if Craig just goes away quietly. Not that Ensign called for Vitter's resignation after last month's straight prostitution scandal.

In related news, the Minneapolis Airport released the audio tape recording of the conversation between Senator Craig and Karsnia, the police officer who arrested him! The WaPo summarizes the tape's content. Noteworthy elements: Craig explicitely maintains he denies the charges but that he will plead guilty to avoid going to court; Karsnia accuses Craig of lying; and he then expresses dismay at politicians like Craig that make "[us go] down the tubes." He goes on to declare that, "I expect this from the guy we get out of the 'hood. I mean, people vote for you."

• Death penalty commutation in Texas

Texas Governor Perry commuted the death penalty of a man about to be executed not for actually killing someone, but only for being an accomplice to murder - or rather for failing to prevent a crime he supposedly should have foreseen. It is rare for a Governor (especially ones in Texas...) to commute death penalty sentences, so that this decision was rather unexpected.