Senate: NRSC's move towards giving up VA and NM, plus a variety of polls

Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, has been setting a lot of expectations lately. After declaring that his goal for the year was to prevent the Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof majority (and thus limit the loss to eight seats), Ensign has now shifted to a wiser refrain: It will be good news, he explained, if the GOP only loses three seats in November. But at this same lunch with reporters, Ensign made some news by taking the first step towards giving up on Virginia and New Mexico. "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win," he said.

An NRSC decision that a race should no longer merits investments would go a long way towards sealing a seat's fate, for both Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore will need the help of the national party to keep up with the momentum that is carrying their Democratic opponents. In 2006, the NRSC's decision to pull out of Ohio effectively handed the election to Sharrod Brown who coasted to an unexpectedly easy victory over the incumbent Republican.

Another interesting tidbit in Ensign's comments is his list of the 10 most competitive races. Ensign includes North Carolina and Maine and does not even make a stab at spin by putting in New Jersey (though Collins is polling better than Lautenberg at this point). Yet, there is no sign of Mississippi! Despite the fact that (1) Ronnie Musgrove has been leading Senator Wicker in a number of polls, (2) despite predictions of increased black turnout, (3) despite the fact that party affiliations will not be printed on the ballot and (4) despite Travis Childers's victory in MS-01 last month, Mississippi continues to be treated as a long shot by most analysts. This attitude is indeed not exclusive to Ensign. Even Chuck Schumer rated MS a third-tier race in a recent interview. What more does Musgrove need to do to prove that this Southern special election is among the hottest races of the country?

Meanwhile, 5 new Senate polls were released in the past two days, only two of which concern competitive races. Here are these polls, in the order in which the contests are ordered in my latest Senate rankings:

• In Minnesota, Norm Coleman edges out Al Franken 48% to 45%, a similar margin than his 2% lead last month.
• Rasmussen also polled a three way match-up including former Governor Jesse Ventura. Coleman leads 39% to 32% to Franken and 24% to Ventura, who (as is expected) takes votes from the challenger.

• In Oregon, Jeff Merkley got no bounce from his primary victory as he now trails incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith 47% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Last month, Smith was ahead by 3% -- though Democrats ought to be satisfied that they are keeping Smith under 50%.

• In Kansas, Cooper & Secrest Associates released a poll of the Senate race that is the third consecutive survey showing Pat Roberts leading his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Slattery, by 12% and the first one in which he dips under the 50% mark, leading 48% to 36%.

• In Iowa, Senator Harkin is leading challenger Christopher Reed 53% to 37% and posting a favorability rating of 59% in a new Rasmussen survey.
  

• In Michigan, finally, no surprises in the latest Rasmussen poll that has Senator Carl Levin leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 55% to 30%. Hoogendyk is largely unknown but Levin has a strong favorability rating, making him an unlikely target.
  

Of these 5 races, Minnesota and Oregon are the two interesting ones. Despite the repeated polls showing some potential for Slattery and despite the GOP's (thwarted) determination early this cycle to field a credible challenger to Harkin, these two races have a long way to go before joining the list of competitive races, though the DSCC might hope that Kansas Democrats will be more enthused than usual if Governor Sebelius is tapped on Obama's ticket.

In Minnesota, despite the media firestorm that has recently been surrounding Al Franken years as a comedian and the unexpected difficulties that popped up on his way to the DFL's endorsement, the Democratic challenger is holding strong, suggesting that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent and on the Republican Party. With Minnesota showing signs of moving back to its solidly Democratic roots, Coleman will remain endangered and he should worry if he could not open up a bigger margin after such a favorable month of press coverage. As for the Jesse Ventura question, the former Governor has declared that he will make up his mind at the last minute. The filing deadline is mid-July so we will have to wait a few more weeks to see whether Ventura will wreak havoc in this senatorial race.

GOP loses potential Senate candidates, prevents open House seats

With filing deadlines fast approaching, all congressional committees are working furiously to recruit top candidates in races that were supposed to be competitive but where no one has stepped forward. The Democrats have had their own share of disastrous recruitment efforts (in North Carolina and Kentucky, most noticeably), but the Republicans have had a much tougher time fielding candidates in a year most indicators are suggesting might be as blue as 2006.

One of the most disappointing races for the NRSC has to be South Dakota, which was one of only two obvious targets for them (along with Louisiana). But Tim Johnson's stroke at the end of 2006 made the race that much more difficult for the GOP; despite his health problems, Johnson did not retire (confirming how immovable Senators tend to be) and the wave of sympathy that surrounded him probably convinced a few Republicans -- starting with Gov. Rounds -- to not jump in.

Now, Republican hopes were pinned on former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby, who would already have been a very low-tier candidate (Johnson crushes him in a recent poll). But now Kirby has announced that he will not run, making it that more difficult for Republicans to make this race competitive. Their hopes are now in the hands of Joel Dykstra, the assistant Majority Leader in the state House. Dykstra was also trounced by Johnson in that same poll and it very improbable that the NRSC will do much to help him considering how many other seats it has to worry about.

Another GOP disappointment has been Iowa, where Democratic Senator Tom Harkin has faced very close re-election races in the past. The NRSC was hoping to field a strong challenger again and test Harkin's vulnerabilities. It quickly became clear, however, that none of the potentially strong Republicans were wiling to jump in the race. There was some speculation that Rep. Steve King, one of the Republican congressmen who is furthest to the Right but who is popular in his district, might jump in, but he squashed that today by announcing that he would not run for Senate and run for re-election in the House. There's at least a consolation for the GOP here -- they will not have to defend one more House open seat!

King made more news today when he went after Obama and suggested that his election would lead terrorists to go "dancing in the streets."

It does matter. His middle name does matter. It matters because they read meaning into that and the rest of the world, it has special meaning to them. They'll be dancing in the streets because of his middle name. They'll be dancing in the streets because of who his father was and because of his posture that says pull out of the Middle East and pull out of this conflict.

Republicans appear to be developing a strategy of getting people who are already known for their extremist statements (and are thus less susceptible of being influenced by pressure and scrutiny) to go after Obama for his middle-name and perpetuating the Muslim smear.

Passing on Arkansas, in which Republicans are apparently leaving freshman Sen. Pryor uncontested, the next item of news is NY-29, where the GOP also avoided an open seat. This one would have been very difficult, too, as Rep. Kuhl barely won against challenger Eric Massa in 2006, 51% to 49%. Kuhl had been hinting that he might call it quits this time, which had Republicans worried about defending his seat. His announcement that he will run for re-election sets a rematch of the 2006 election, as Massa is again running against him.

Update: The New York Times giant headline at this minute: "Spitzer linked to prostitution ring"! There are very few details right now, but this obviously looks like a major story that could have huge consequences in New York politics.