Monday polls: Virginia is indeed a toss-up, and is it worth looking at Kansas?

It is one thing for David Ploufe to insist that the campaign does not need to win Ohio and Florida to get to the White House, it is quite another for pollsters to impose a seeming blackout on polls from these two mega-battleground states. No survey from either has been released since mid-May and in the meantime we got plenty of polls from states like Washington and just today two from New York. A new survey from Virginia released today keeps things interesting:

• Rasmussen finds that the presidential race in this traditional red state is a toss-up, with Obama edging McCain 45% to 44%. This is a small swing from last month's survey, in which McCain led by 3%.
• While McCain's favorability rating is a bit higher, Obama has a higher proportion of respondents who say they have a very favorable impression of him. However, the familiar pattern of Obama's very unfavorable rating also being much higher holds in this poll.

• In New York, two polls confirm the Democrat's overwhelming advantage. The Sienna poll has Obama leading 51% to 33%. He led by 11% last month and 5% two months ago.
• The New York Times poll, meanwhile, has Obama leading 51% to 32%.

• In Kansas, finally, Rasmussen finds McCain ahead 47% to 37%, down from a 21% lead last month.
• Obama has a mediocre favorability rating, however (49% versus 62% for McCain) and very low very unfavorables (31% versus 12% for McCain).
  

Of these polls, the Virginia survey is naturally the most interesting. While I did not hesitate to include it in the list of toss-ups in my first electoral college ratings, it is always somewhat of a shock when Obama performs so well in a poll from the Commonwealth. This is, after all, a state that has not voted for a Democrat since 1964. Yet, Rasmussen's poll is certainly not a surprise. The latest SUSA poll showed Obama leading by 8% three weeks ago and Obama has made no secret that flipping it will be one of his priorities, so far so that there are 3 potential VP picks that come from the state (Webb, Kaine and Warner). He even organized his first general election campaign stop in Virginia. There is no question that McCain losing this state would make it very hard for him to get to 270 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot polls found some interesting results as well:

• In Virginia, Mark Warner is widening his lead over Jim Gilmore and is now ahead 60% to 33% in Rasmussen's poll! Warner has a 70% favorability rating compared to 46% for Gilmore... and don't forget this is a GOP-held seat!

• Dems get more good news in Louisiana, where Mary Landrieu is up 49% to 33% in a new poll. However -- and this is a big one -- this is an internal poll conducted for and released by the Landrieu campaign. But until Kennedy responds with his own poll (and he did release an internal showing him ahead in December), this is positive for Landrieu.

• In Kansas, meanwhile, Pat Roberts continues to post surprisingly low numbers for an incumbent that no one is really paying attention to. After 3 polls from 3 different polling groups showing him up 12% against former Rep. Slattery, Rasmussen's latest survey finds the incumbent under 50% and in single-digits, leading 47% to 38%.
• Roberts's favorability rating remains high, however, at 60%.

• In Nevada, Mason-Dixon polled two House races (both currently held by Republicans) and found good news for both parties. In NV-01, Rep. Porter and Dina Titus in a toss-up with the incumbent up 45% to 42%. Porter's job approval is a dismal 36% to 56%. Note that Titus ran a statewide gubernatorial race in 2006, so she is better-known than your average House challenger.
  
• In NV-02, Rep. Dean Heller has a much strong lead against Democrat Jill Derby in a rematch of their 2006 race. Heller is up 53% to 39%.

• In TX-10, a poll taken for the Democratic challenger in a race few people have on their radar screen (and which I confess I have not included in my latest House ratings) shows the incumbent Mike McCaul leading Democrat Larry Doherty 43% to 34%.
  
• As SSP points out, an independent poll from IRV that I managed to miss just last week has Doherty trailing by only 6%, 52% to 46%. Doherty's decision to release a poll today that shows him faring a bit worse is no doubt due to his desire to prove that the IRV survey was not an outlier and that TX-10 is indeed competitive.
  

• Finally, a poll from New York's gubernatorial race of... 2010, which will interest everyone given how chaotic the state political scene has been lately. This is also important because whether Mike Bloomberg decides he should run will determine whether he tries to change the term limits law in NYC in the coming months. The Sienna poll referred to above has Bloomberg ahead 45% to 34% in a match-up against recently promoted Governor Paterson (who is not that much ahead of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary).

The Kansas Senate race is too me the most interesting poll of this group because it confirms -- and accentuates -- the results of three polls that have been released in close proximity (here, here and here). Looking at the latest Rasmussen polls of the second and third-tier of Senate races, Roberts now looks weaker than Dole and Cornyn and he has repeatedly polled lower than Sen. Collins ever has in Maine (well there was one poll showing her leading by only 10%)! Even Chuck Schumer, when trying to tout his attempts to expand the map, refers to Oklahoma more readily than Kansas. So at one point does the DSCC start looking in Kansas's direction? Given Schumer's determination to test the vulnerability of incumbents, it would not be a surprise if the DSCC conducts a poll and sends in a few staffers.

Senate: Gilmore nearly loses GOP nod, Landrieu in tight race

It is never a good sign when a presumptive nominee wins his party's nod with 50.3% of the vote, but that is what happened to Virginia's Jim Gilmore. The state's former Governor, who is already a heavy underdog in his quest to retain the seat against Democrat Mark Warner, had declared his candidacy in the fall and his backers had pushed the state GOP to announce that it would pick its Senate nominee in a convention rather than a primary. This was a way to insure that Gilmore, a conservative Republican, would be favored against Rep. Tom Davis, a more moderate politician representing Northern Virginia. Davis, who until then was considered the favorite to represent the GOP in the general election, would have had an easier time in a primary than at a convention packed with conservatives, and he indeed withdrew from the race soon after the state GOP dealt him this powerful blow.

But at the state convention this week-end, Gilmore's strategy stunningly turned against him, as delegates, who were mostly conservative activists, turned to a Republican even more conservative than Gilmore, Bob Marshall from the Virginia General Assembly. Marshall, who prided himself with having spent less than a tenth of what Gilmore had spent, came within 80 votes of 3,500 convention votes cast. In other words, Gilmore becomes the party's nominee with 50.3% of the vote.

With an unenergized conservative base and a moderate wing that will likely migrate to Mark Warner, especially since Tom Davis will not be on the ballot, the Virginia GOP is heading towards a rough Senate election. They better hope that the cross-over Senate votes do not translate into the presidential race, for Warner could have some coattails in one of the Obama campaign's top target states. Note, however, that increasing talk of Obama picking Warner as his running mate could be a nightmare for Virginia Democrats, who would be deprived of their candidate, and a huge gift to Jim Gilmore.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two new Senate polls:

• In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu is barely ahead of John Kennedy, 47% to 44%. This is Rasmussen's first poll from the state and he finds both candidates with strong favorability ratings.

• In Massachusetts, John Kerry has no trouble dispatching his challengers, posting 63% against both Jeff Beaty and Jim Ogonowski. Note that Ogonowski, who national Republicans were very excited about, failed to qualify for the ballot last week.

The Louisiana numbers are particularly interesting for they follow a series of surveys that had found Landrieu ahead by double-digits. Any incumbent polling under 50% is naturally in trouble, and the fact that Landrieu is barely ahead with a favorability rating of 59% testifies to the state's increasingly Republican lean. This is the GOP's only Senate pick-up opportunity this cycle, so the NRSC will make sure to play big, which is why I had left the race at the sixth spot of my recent Senate rankings. This poll confirms that the race will not be easy for Democrats.

Special election watch: Republicans rush to save Southern seats

A week from the special election in Mississippi's 1st district and less than three weeks from Louisiana's 6th, national Republicans are getting increasingly worried at the prospect of losing not one but two staunchly conservative Southern districts.

MS-01, first, since this is a district we have talked about much less. On the ballot on April 22nd will be six names with no party affiliation indicated. The top two candidates are Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis who won competitive contests in the regular primaries last months. If no one gets 50% on April 22nd, a run-off will be held on May 13th. Bush won this seat overwhelmingly in 2004 -- and this is the last place Republicans were expecting to have to compete in.

But MS-01 is the type of district that has very deep Democratic roots and where many local officials still call themselves Democrats. A poll last week suggested that the race could be very competitive. And all of this has forced the NRCC to jump in the race with a medium-sized ad buy. The NRCC's ad alleges that Childers mismanaged a nursing home that he runs with his wife. (you can view the ad here). “Childers doesn’t care about seniors... He profits from them,” charges the NRCC's ad.

You can be sure that the GOP would not have invested here had they not been sure that they needed to take emergency action: The NRCC has very little money, a ton of endangered seats and it does not want to have to spend the next few months defending seats that are supposed to be as safe as MS-01. Consider also that the DCCC did not fire the first shot here as it did in LA-06, making the NRCC's choice to invest funds even more dramatic.

In LA-06, meanwhile, the situation continue to look very worrisome for Republican nominee Woody Jenkins. The DCCC has invested more than $150,000 here, forcing the GOP to respond in a weakly produced ad. There had been talk just a few days before the NRCC's investment that they would abandon Jenkins to his fate, too concerned that his controversial profile made him unelectable. Today, the Cazayoux campaign released a new internal poll that show the Democrat leading Jenkins 49% to 42%, confirming the GOP's worst fears.

Now, Freedom's Watch, a conservative independent group, has launched itself in the LA-06 battle by airing a negative ad against Cazayoux (you can view it here). This spot picks up where the NRCC left off, accusing Cazayoux of favoring tax hikes. It looks a bit less like a caricature than the NRCC's ad, however, and a second ad with the same message could start hurting Cazayoux as it could start drilling in the idea that this (very conservative) Democrat wants to raise taxes.

Freedom's Watch is a 501c and is not allowed to directly come out supporting or opposing any candidate. It has to only address an issue, leading to the ad's silly conclusion which urges viewers to call Cazayoux's office to urge him to not raise taxes... Another thing to consider is that Freedom's Watch advocacy director was responsible for the NRCC's independent expenditures in 2006, suggesting that this is a group we will hear (and see) a lot from in the coming months.

In Senate news, finally, two interesting polls were released over the past few days:

• In Louisiana, a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey shows Mary Landrieu beating John Kennedy by twelve percent, 50% to 38%.
  

• In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds that incumbent Elizabeth Dole leads challenger Kay Hagan 52% to 39% and Jim Neal 51% to 37%.

The North Carolina Senate race is a long shot for Democrats, who have to bank on something dramatic happening that makes this race competitive -- almost like Virginia in 2006 -- and who have to deal with the fact that this contest was one of their recruitment disasters of the year. In Louisiana, this is the second recent poll showing Landrieu up double-digits, after last week's Rasmussen poll. LA is supposed to be the most (only?) endangered Democratic-held Senate seat of the cycle, so it is not a good sign for the GOP that they can't even hold under 50%.

Senate: New Jersey follies, Colorado ethics and Louisiana poll

Who knew the New Jersey Senate race would become such a chaotic free-for-all? To recap the different steps we have gone through in about 4 weeks: (1) The candidate Republicans were touting unexpectedly dropped out for health reasons, leaving the GOP with no credible candidate. (2) The GOP was excited to recruit businessman (and self-funder) Andrew Unanu, though it did not take long for Unanu to be completely discredited.

(3) On April 2nd, Rep. Andrews, a Democrat, jumped in the race to challenge Senator Launtenberg in the June 3rd primary. (4) Two days later -- and three days before the filing deadline -- the GOP managed to find a strong candidate: businessman John Crowley leading to Unanu's withdrawal from the race. (5) Barely two more days passed and Crowley stunned New Jersey politicos by already dropping out of the race, leading to Unanu's jumping back in and leaving the GOP without a credible candidate once again.

As the filing deadline passed last Monday, we could have expected the race to quiet down -- at least on the Republican side, as Lautenberg and Andrews are now preparing to wage their primary battle. But that would be not understanding New Jersey politics where all rules are too complex to follow and anything can happen at any moment. Until April 16th, a candidate is allowed to withdraw and allow a three-member committee of his supporters to replace his name on the ballot.

That is exactly why off-and-on candidate Unanu is doing, as he is announced his exit from the race and endorsed former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer to replace him. Zimmer has not served in Congress in 1996 when he left his House seat to run for Senate, losing to Torricelli by 10%. For years later, Zimmer tried to win his House seat back but fell short. The fact that he is such an old face will make it difficult for him to unseat Senator Lautenberg, whose main vulnerability is his old age. To make things even more difficult for Republicans here, Zimmer has been working as a lobbyist in Washington since 2001 -- not the best launch pad to get back into elected office.

Naturally, it would be too simple to think that Zimmer is sure to make his way to the ballot since Unanu's replacement will be determined by a committee of Unanu's supporters... This is New Jersey, after all. State Senator Pennacchio, who is also running for the GOP nomination and who must be irked at the NRSC's insistence to not trust his chances, is planning a legal challenge to Unanu's maneuver, arguing that Unanu was never a candidate in "good faith" and that his name should not be replaced.

The next episode of the New Jersey saga could thus be decided by the courts -- though at this point Lautenberg and Andrews both seem like they would have little trouble dispatching the GOP's nominee in November.

Meanwhile, in Louisiana, the only other Democratic-held seat that Republicans are hoping to challenge, a new Rasmussen poll brings the best news yet for incumbent Mary Landrieu:

• Rasmussen finds Landrieu leading 55% to 39% against a well-known opponent, former Democrat John Kennedy.
  
• Landrieu's is boosted by a 64% favorable rating (including 33% who say "very favorable"), versus 51% for Kennedy (with only 11% "very favorable").
  

Most indications we have had from this race have pointed to a very tight race, starting with the last poll (from SUSA) we saw back in December that showed Landrieu only up 4%, and under 50%. Kennedy's fundraising has been very strong -- he outpaced Landrieu in the first quarter -- and the GOP is sure to pour all of its offensive resources in this state, ensuring that life stays very difficult for Landrieu. But it is always hard to beat an incumbent that starts above 50% and who posts such strong favorability ratings. (Democrats are facing the same problem in Maine.)

Finally, some rare Senate news from Colorado. Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall have been running against each other for nearly a year, with Republican Schaffer hanging on better than expected and most polls showing a toss-up. But Schaffer could now be hurt from a story in the Denver Post highlighting the ties between Schaffer and disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff back in 1999, when the Republican was still in the House:

What he didn't say was that the trip was partly arranged by the firm of now-jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who represented textile factory owners fighting congressional efforts to reform labor and immigration laws on the islands and who was being handsomely paid to keep the islands' cherished exemptions.

Senate Republicans get two (rare) good news

The 2008 Senate cycle has been nothing short of disastrous for Republicans for now. Some of their members unexpectedly retired, too many incumbents are in trouble, and the party has failed to adequately recruit in Democratic-held seats that could have been competitive (starting with South Dakota and Arkansas). But the NRSC got some good news today from New Jersey and Louisiana, the only two states in which Republicans are playing offense.

Louisiana has been at the top of the GOP's list since the beginning of the cycle. Senator Mary Landrieu has never been a very entrenched incumbent, and her state had been trending Republican even before Katrina. Republicans are running former Democrat and state Treasurer John Kennedy in what is expected to be one of the fall's marquee races. Last November, Republicans picked up the governorship but Democrats showed they could still win statewide and resisted the GOP's legislative push.

Landrieu's problem is that she is The target this year. She is the only Democrats the GOP really thinks it can beat -- and the NRSC and Republican donors will divest as much funding, resources and attention as necessary to win this seat. And the fundraising totals of the first quarter should dispel any doubts people might still harbor about the threat Kennedy poses: He outraised Landrieu, known as a good fundraiser, $1.4 million to approximately $1 million. For any challenger to outraise an incumbent is always an impressive feat, and it proves that Louisiana is definitely a race to watch to the end.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Republicans are hoping to add a second state to their list of offensive plays. 3 days before the filing deadline, the GOP finally convinced a credible candidate to jump in the race, businessman John Crowley. His first advantage is financial: He will self-fund his campaign, which is the main thing the NRSC is probably asking for given how little money the committee will have just to defend the seats that are endangered. In the past few contests, Republicans have had hope in New Jersey only to be crushed on Election Day after having wasted millions in the very expensive New Jersey markets (you have to buy ads in Philly and NYC).

Even beyond that, Republicans think Crowley (who started a biomedical company to seek a cure for his two children) is exactly the type of candidate the GOP needs in New Jersey. Whether or not Crowley lives up to such hopes, the race could become tricky for Democrats now that Senator Lautenberg is facing a fierce primary challenge from Rep. Andrews. That contest is (understandably and justifiably) sure to focus on the incumbent's age, which Crowley will be glad to pick up on in the fall. Don't expect to get clear trends to develop as to the Republicans' chances here for a few more months. Crowley is the type of candidate who will strengthen after introducing himself to voters with millions of dollars worth of ads, and that process certainly takes time.

Senate: Democrats get a candidate in Kentucky, but Landrieu looks weak in LA

• Andrew Horne jumps in

Democrats have a candidate in Kentucky's Senate race. A week after State Auditor Crit Luallen -- who many viewed as the strongest candidate against GOP incumbent Mitch McConnell -- announced she would not run, attorney and veteran Andrew Horne announced his candidacy. There still are other Democrats considering the race, including Attorney General Stumbo and Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo -- the latter is unlikely to run, but the former still has an explanatory committee.

Some feel very strongly about Horne's chances, but there is no denying that in a major high-profile race like this one against the Senate Minority Leader who sits on top of $10 million warchest and has already ran ads, there are candidates who would have been stronger. Horne will definitely make this competitive: An October poll that had McConnell barely edging out Luallen had Horne 11% behind and holding McConnell under 50%, a great showing for someone whose name ID is still not very high.

The race will stay for now hovering between Lean and Likely retention; let's see how much the DSCC is willing to commit to the race, as it could become very tight if national Democrats are willing to get involved to help their nominee to counter the McConnell onslaught. And odds are the DSCC will get involved: They have lots of money, and they want to keep McConnell stranded at home instead of helping out fellow GOPers across the country.

• Louisiana is a toss-up

Yesterday we got new polls from Colorado and Idaho's Senate races, and both were tighter than expected. Today, SUSA released a poll from Louisiana. It is tight, but this one was expected:

• Incumbent Dem Mary Landrieu leads her challenger John Kennedy 46% to 42%.
• Reminder: An internal Zogby poll for the Kennedy campaign released last month by the Republican had him up 45% to 38%.

This will be one of the tightest Senate races in the country, and Landrieu is clearly in danger: She's a two-term incumbent and is still under 50% -- under 40%, even, in the Zogby poll. One reassuring thought for Dems is that Kennedy won't necessarily benefit from added exposure since he is already pretty well-known in the state: He ran for Senate in 04 (as a Democrat...) and has been the state Treasurer for a while. One reassuring thought for Republicans is that the national committee will dump a lot of resources here since Louisiana is the only Dem-held state in which Republicans have a chance at this point. So Kennedy can be sure he will get a lot of help.

Congressional Republicans lose a candidate in New Jersey and gain one in Louisiana

• Kennedy running in LA-Sen
  

Louisiana's state Treasurer John Kennedy finally jumped in the Louisiana Senate race. He switched parties at the end of August, which was basically a confirmation that he was intending to challenge Senator Mary Landrieu. Since then, he won re-election for his seat in October (without facing any opposition though he ran ads seeking to prepare the ground for his Senate run).

In officially declaring his candidacy, Kennedy also released the results of a poll he commissioned with Zogby. The poll shows him in the lead, 45% against 38% for Landrieu. This is the first poll I believe we are seeing of the Louisiana race. Take it with a grain of salt for two reasons: (1) It is an internal poll, and (2) Louisiana has become notoriously difficult to poll since Katrina, and very few surveys are released from the state. However, there is no question that a 38% showing for an incumbent is bad news no matter the circumstances. 50% is the threshold under which an incumbent can expect a very tough race -- and not breaking 40% is obviously a sign that things could go wrong very fast.

The race is currently ranked 5th on my Senate rankings as a "toss-up." There have been conflicting signs as to how this race might play out: GOP Bobby Jindal and Democrat Mitch Landrieu (Mary's brother) overwhelmingly won Governor and LG in October; last week, the runoff for the state legislature yielded conflicting messages once again, as Democrats held to majorities in both the House and the Senate but endured losses in both. Kennedy appears to have a very good at picking-up this seat, but we shall see how the race develops -- and how other polls see the race.

• Allen out in NJ-03

Meanwhile, the GOP is continuing to have recruiting trouble in open races. Republicans were touting the candidacy of state Senator Diane Allen in NJ-03, left open by Rep. Saxton's retirement. But Diane Allen bowed out today, saying she would not run for the seat. Now, Democrats have their highly touted recruit running (state Senator John Adler, who was already a candidate before Saxton announced his retirement), but the GOP will have to scramble to find a candidate who can keep the seat in Republican hands.

NJ-03 is starting to resemble IL-11, a competitive district where the filing deadline has already passed. There, Democrats also got their first choice in (the senate Majority Leader) while the GOP's favored candidate decided to stay out. It goes without saying that Democrats could make some major gains next November if they pick-up these districts that keep opening up and where the GOP is struggling to get its act together.