A few more late afternoon polls: Obama leads in his second FL poll, but OH is tied

After weeks of not getting a single poll from OH and FL, here is the third Ohio poll in two days -- and a reminder of how much indecision we should expect in polls as long as the race remains a toss-up:

• Unlike PPP's 11% lead yesterday and Quinnipiac's 6% lead earlier today, Obama is slightly behind in Rasmussen's new poll, though well within the MoE: McCain gets 44% to his 43%, the same margin as the May poll. Obama gets 53% favorability rating against a high 47% (including 31% very unfavorable).

Unless (or until) the election becomes a blowout, it is unlikely that Ohio will ever clearly belong in one or the other camp. This is just a reminder that the election at this point in time remains tight in most of the states that will matter. Meanwhile, ARG released a general election poll from Florida that finds a similar result as Quinnipiac's:

• Obama is leading 49% to 44%. Both candidates get under 80% from their own party.
  
• In case of an Obama/Nelson-McCain/Crist match-up, the GOP ticket is ahead 43% to 42%.

Earlier today, the Quinnipiac survey was the first ever to find Obama leading McCain in the Sunshine state, meaning that the only surveys finding a Democratic advantage were released today. The GOP still has a slight edge in Florida -- Obama is under-organized here and this is a state that resisted the Democratic tsunami fairly well in 2006 -- but the fact that the Illinois Senator looks stronger than expected is a bad sign for McCain's hopes of putting this one away.

Also this evening, ARG released a survey from New Hampshire, another rarely polled state:

• Obama leads 51% to 39%, including a 15% lead among independents.
• In the Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen leads Senator Sununu 54% to 40%.
• And no surprises in the gubernatorial race, as Governor Lynch crushes his minor opposition 65% to 21%.

It is difficult to know what to make of New Hampshire, a state that both candidates have reason to believe they can do well in. The state's large independent contingent swung dramatically towards the Democrats in 2006, a pattern that should at least somewhat hold this year. But New Hampshire has long been kind to McCain, saving him from the dead in 2008 and grant him an unlikely blowout victory against George Bush in 2000.

McCain won both of these contests based on his strength with independents and he hopes to win them over against Obama -- just as he did in on January 8th. Remember that more than expected independent voters chose to participate in the GOP primary instead of the Democratic one, allowing Clinton to upset Obama and McCain to distance Romney. But ARG's poll suggests that McCain's long relationship with New Hampshire and its independents could snap this year. This is one of the two Kerry states that Republicans believe they can pick-up the most (along with Michigan) and putting it away early would be great news for Obama.

Congressional diary: Clinton-Obama isn't the only race today

It's Election Day... and Clinton-Obama are not the only races on the ballot today. In fact, there is a whole series of competitive congressional primaries that we will be following more or less closely, starting with statewide races in both North Carolina and Indiana.

In North Carolina, the most high-profile election opposes Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore for the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination. Perdue, the Lieutenant Governor, started with a significant lead that Richard Moore was never able to overtake despite running increasingly negative ads. The winner of the primary will be favored in the general though the fall campaign would become very competitive if the GOP nominates Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

Also in North Carolina, Democrats will decide who -- Kay Hagan or Jim Neal -- will face Elizabeth Dole in the fall. Neither candidate is first-tier or well-known, as the DCCC suffered from a rare series of recruitment failures here. On paper, Hagan should be the strongest in the general though polls taken so far put the two Democrats roughly at the same level against Dole; Neal is also reputed to be much more progressive than Hagan, though his career as an investment banker undermine those credentials.

Finally, the last competitive statewide race is Indiana's gubernatorial race, where two Democrats are facing off to face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels in the general: architect Jim Schellinger and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson. The former was favored by the establishment and raised much more money, but Thompson appears to have transformed higher name recognition into a lead in the polls. There is no sign that either would be particularly stronger in the general.

In non-May 6th congressional news, all eyes are of course on the special election in MS-01 -- just in a week! The DCCC has dumped $100,000 again, bringing its total to $1,4 million! This is an awfully high tab for a race that the Democrat was so close to winning in the first round on April 22nd. Those 400 votes are forcing the Democratic party to spend more than a million dollars to live up to the first round's potential. It's also forcing them to defend themselves against attempts to nationalize the election by linking Childers to Barack Obama.

Last week, Childers actually denied having been endorsed by Obama (a strange claim to make considering the contrary evidence). That was enough for Republican candidate Greg Davis to produce another ad (watch it here), hitting Childers for lying about not receiving Obama's endorsement. What's so strange about this ad (like the previous ones) is that it takes Obama to be so toxic that it doesn't even bother making any attacks on the Illinois Senator; there is even a montage of Obama's website and talk of Childers there, as if we were talking about the website of Fidel Castro or even -- gasp -- of Ted Kennedy. I remain unconvinced that Obama is defined enough to be this much of a drag even in this staunchly conservative a district. He might be unpopular but that does not necessarily lead to toxicity.

Finally, the University of New Hampshire released a wave of polls yesterday:

• In the Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen is -- as always -- running ahead of Sununu, 52% to 40%. That's a 5% tightening since the last UNH poll but that doesn't obscure the fact that it's bad news for an incumbent to be under 50% -- let alone to trail by double-digits.

• In NH-01, however, Democratic Rep. Shea Porter is in trouble. She won her race in one of the most unexpected upsets in 2006, and the incumbent she beat, Jeb Bradley, is back for a rematch... and leads her 45% to 39%. She even struggles against another Republican, John Stephen 43% to 35%.
  

• However, Democrats are in better shape in NH-02, which they also picked-up in 2006. Rep. Hordes is leading both his challengers by close to 30%.

NH-01 is one of the 11 Democratic seats I have listed as a toss-up in my latest ratings. This first poll of the race confirms that assessment; Democrats are going to need to recapture their 2006 momentum (NH was probably the state that colored itself blue the most dramatically) to keep this seat.

Congressional diary: With one day to LA-06, Fossella steals some attention

The polls open tomorrow morning in Louisiana's 6th district. It is a testament to Don Cazayoux's advantage that the expectations favor him so much; it was just on April 6th that I wrote my first preview of this special election, describing the race as a toss-up. With the latest poll showing the Democrat leading by 9%, it would be a remarkable comeback for Woody Jenkins to pull through a win after all. But this is not the Democratic primaries and the expectation game matters very little: A win is a win is a win in a congressional election, with the winner becoming congressman and the loser staying at home; so the only reason Democrats should be upset about expectations being too optimistic is that it would be harder for them to paint a narrow loss as a "moral victory" (not that those attempts ever work that well anyway).

Republicans did not give up on the race as some were expecting them to; despite facing a financial crunch and an unexpectedly competitive race in MS-01, they purchased significant ad buys and were boosted by the participation of other groups like Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch that jumped in to help Woody Jenkins. Yesterday, Democrats made their final push to help Cazayoux pick up this conservative district. Swing State Project reports that the DCCC just dumped more than $250,000 of various expenditures, including a new ad buy against Jenkins. This means that the DCCC has spent a total of more than $1,1 million in LA-06's special election! Even for a committee as rich as the DCCC, that is indeed a lot of money (note that the DCCC has already spent as much in MS-01 and there are still 10 days to the runoff).

Meanwhile, some of the attention was diverted to New York yesterday as news broke that Rep. Vito Fossella of NY-13 (Staten Island) had been arrested in Arlington, Virginia on DWI charges. Fossella faces a day in court on May 12th. While politicians have survived DWI charges before (see: Bush, George) and it is unlikely that Fossella resigns or retires because of this, it could potentially make his life more difficult in the general election. Democrats have not been able to make this race competitive in recent cycles, however, with Fossella winning in 2006 (a terrible year for New York Republicans) with more than 56%.

Finally, a new Rasmussen poll from the New Hampshire Senate race shows Jeanne Shaheen leading Senator Sununu 51% to 43%. This is a 1% tightening in the past month but also the first time Shaheen crosses 50% in a Rasmussen poll. For an incumbent to be under 50% is already a sign of vulnerability, to say nothing of the challenger crossing that threshold in the other direction. Note that Rasmussen's polls have always shown a tighter race than other polling institutes that have surveyed this race; Shaheen is often found to be leading Sununu by double-digits and has held that lead since the very beginning, in a replay of the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race.

Senate polls: Good news for Shaheen and MN stays a toss-up

After the avalanche of presidential polls over the past two days, Friday was marked by the release of a few interesting down-the-ballot surveys which help us assess the state of congressional races now that the season for recruitments and retirements is coming to an end. We first get two surveys from New Hampshire:

• A new ARG poll shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Senator Sununu 47% to 33%, including 63% of independents.
  

• Rasmussen confirms the Democrat's lead but pits it at a slightly smaller 49% to 41%. The margin has not changed in the past month.

New Hampshire has truly become the Santorum-Casey of the 2008 cycle, with the well-known Democratic challenger taking a lead from the very first polls released of the race and keeping a very stable advantage no matter the circumstances. ARG's previous poll showed a Sununu lead in December, but that has proven to be an outlier with numerous polls before and now also after showing Shaheen clearly ahead.

This explains why New Hampshire is ranked so high in my latest Senate Rankings. But you might remember that Santorum did have a brief period in the fall of 2006 where it seemed like he might come-back, though he was too far gone to capitalize on that. That suggests that Sununu can certainly hope to tighten things up by November.

The Senate election that seems guaranteed to go down the wire is Minnesota's probable match-up against Senator Coleman and Democrat Al Franken:

• A new Rasmussen poll shows Coleman edging Franken 48% to 46%. This is actually a slight improvement since February, where Franken was up 49% to 46%.
  

There were a string of polls in February showing Franken with a small lead against Coleman, but the Rasmussen survey is the second (after a poll released Monday) with Coleman reversing that trend. Given the demographics of Minnesota and Coleman's narrow, disputed and controversial election back in 2002, it is unlikely that Franken can come to pull significantly ahead. But every passing month (and every passing poll) should reassure the DSCC that Franken is the real deal. While many doubted whether he could escape his comedian roots to be a serious contender, Franken is holding the incumbent under 50% and barely ahead.

The third Senate poll I want to cite comes to ask from Georgia, courtesy of Rasmussen. Saxby Chambliss's re-election isn't very contested, and no one is for now expecting it to rise to the level of a competitive race. Rasmussen's poll shows Chambliss leading his closest competitor, Dale Cardwell, 52% to 36%.

Finally, an interesting congressional survey was released today in Alaska. It is an internal poll for the campaign of Democrat Metcalfe released by the polling company Hart:

• Jack Metcale leads Rep. Young 45% to 37%. The poll also shows Young trailing a generic Democrat 41% to 34%.

Democrats believe they have a great chance of picking up AK-AL, but most consider Ethan Berkowitz their best chance of doing so. There have been numerous polls released in the past few months showing Berkowitz leading Young, and the Metcalfe campaign apparently was feeling itself left out and wanted to jump back in the game proving that their candidate, too, could beat Young. Note that most of the incumbent's troubles come from his ethical issues; if Young goes down in the heated primary he is facing, odds will get much longer for whichever Democrat wins the nomination.

Cleaning out Friday poll: Wisconsin's tight primary and competitive Senate races

A few polls were released over the past 48 hours that I have not gotten to yet. With most everyone obsessed about Clinton's last stand in Ohio and Texas, it's easy to forget that she could start reversing momentum as easly as this Tuesday in the Wisconsin primary. The New York Senator will be traveling to Wisconsin tomororw and stay there until the election, in what many people are already describing as too little, too late. And indeed, while it is laudable of Clinton to take the Texas challenge seriously -- and, as I explained this morning, it is a challenge for everyone -- it is unclear why she waited so long before investing herself in Wisconsin when a win here could be an instantaneous storyline turner.

Research 2000's new poll confirms that the Wisconsin primary is very close, with Obama holding a slight edge:

• Obama leads Clinton 47% to 42%. In three other polls released in the past few days, Obama has been up by a similar margin (with an average of about 4%), with two polls showing a large Clinton and a large Obama lead.

One of Clinton's main strategies has been to hammer Obama on his refusal to hold a debate prior to the Wisconsin primary. Obama is retorting that 18 debates have already been held and that Clinton is just grasping at straws, though it is true that only one debate has occured so far in February, and that was the only one with Obama and Clinton speaking directly to each other; it is also true that it is absurd to demand that teh candidates debate in every state that is holding a contest. (The next debate, by the way, is scheduled for February 21st, next Thursday.)

• Senate polls: Shaheen leads in NH, tie in Colorado

Rasmussen released two polls from two very important Senate contests yesterday:

• In New Hampshire, Democrat Shaheen is ahead of of incumbent Sununu, 49% to 41%. The last Rasmussen poll showed Shaheen ahead 48% to 43%.
• In Colorado, GOP Bob Shaffer leads Dem Mark Udall 44% to 43%, the same margin as three months ago.

These races are ranked third and fourth respectively in my latest Senate rankings. New Hampshire looks particularly promising for Democrats, as Shaheen is regularly distancing Sununu in polls. In fact, most surveys -- including one released earlier this week -- show her ahead by double-digits, making Sununu the Santorum of this year's race: He has been behind since the very first opinion polls, a rare feat for an incumbent, and is showing little sign of recovering.

Colorado is shaping to be a more interesting race. The early conventional wisdom was that Udall -- a popular congressman in a state that has been increasingly trending blue in recent cycles -- would prevail in the open seat, picking up a seat for Democrats, but all polls have shown a toss-up between him and Shaffer, who at first seemed to be a second-tier candidate for Republicans. Democrats have been very successful in open seats in Colorado in 2004 (a Senate seat and a House seat) and 2006 (a Governor's seat and a House seat) and they are hoping to duplicate that here. In races this close, the dynamics of the presidential race could very well end up moving things slightly one way or another.

Congressional diary: One more House Republican withdraws, Sununu trails and Horne drops out

Arizona's Rep. John Shadegg announced today that he would not seek re-election, an entirely unexpected development. Shadegg, who was first elected in 1994, ran for House Majority Leader last year as the most conservative candidate and came in third and found himself out of the GOP leadership.

Democrats have a candidate that is very well-funded, Bob Lord. But Shadegg's district is reliably Republic -- Bush beat Kerry 57% to 41% in 2004 -- and Shadegg dipped below 60% only once, finishing his 2006 re-election race in 2006. This retirement is thus not important because it creates another competitive open seat (though we should keep a close eye on further developments, depending on who the GOP manages to recruit). It is significant because it says a lot about the state of disarray of House Republicans. One of the most vocal conservative leaders is retiring without any warning sign says a lot about how much belief the GOP has in its chances of reclaiming the House in November.

Shadegg did specify that he might seek John McCain's Senate seat if the senator is elected to the White House in November and his seat needs to be filled. And I thus learned that Governor Napolitano, a Democrat, would have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat became vacant, as Arizona law requires the governor to pick someone from the same party (the same was true a few months ago when a GOP-held seat opened up in Wyoming and the Democratic governor was not allowed to appoint a Democrat).

In other Senate news, a new University of New Hampshire poll shows Senator Sununu massively trailing former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of their 2002 race. Shaheen gets 54% to Sununu's 37%. Shaheen's lead has been consistent for months now, except for an ARG poll in December that had Sununu up 11%. That was attributed to the bad press Shaheen's husband was getting at the time for his suggestion that the GOP would use Barack Obama's drug use in the general election. Whether or not that is true, the ARG poll more than ever looks to have been an outlier.

Finally, some surprising news from the Kentucky Senate race, where attorney and Iraq War veteran Andrew Horne abruptly announced he was withdrawing his candidacy without really providing a reason. Horne entered after the first tier of potential Democratic candidates announced they were not running. Despite having a solid online following, Horne did not seem quite adequate to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Democratic candidate will now probably be Bruce Lunsford, who lost the gubernatorial primary last year against eventual winner Steve Beshear.

New Hampshire polls: Has Sununu made a comeback?

• New Hampshire: Competitive in both parties

Gallup just released its latest poll from New Hampshire, and both parties are moving into toss-ups. Last month's Gallup poll had Clinton and Romney up in double-digits, now:

• Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama both get 32% -- with Edwards hovering behind at 18%.
• Among the GOP, Romney is now only leading 34% to 27%, while Giuliani (who had a chance to win this thing only 10 days ago) has now collapsed at 11%. Huck and Ron Paul get 9%.

The tie in the Democratic race has now become a common story -- but I am still trying to understand what is going on in the Republican race: Only one poll for now has shown McCain tying Romney in the state, but all NH polls of late have Romney's lead that was clearly double-digit 10 days ago dramatically cut, and McCain on the rise -- this movement is coinciding with Rudy's fall, which implies that McCain is drawing his votes from Giuliani.

This also makes what was last week the most likely scenario (Huck wins IA, and Romney holds on to win NH) increasingly unlikely, as McCain could probably overtake Mitt if things go badly for him in Iowa. And what a story that would be: Romney failing to win either of the early states (and probably being eliminated for good), and McCain suddenly in the running. We're almost there -- and you bet Giuliani would love that. McCain-Huckabee in IA and NH would mean a muddied race, and his big-state strategy would suddenly make sense again.

• NH-Sen: Sununu is now ahead?!

As far as Senate polls go, this one is a shocker. For months, any poll of the New Hampshire Senate race has shown Jeanne Shaheen with a double-digit lead -- which sometimes got up to 20+. Some polls did have high single-digits, but Shaheen soon picked up again after that. And now we get a new ARG poll :

• Incumbent GOP Sen. Sununu is ahead 52% to 41% -- a rather dramatic swing in his favor.
• Democrats are much less aligned behind Shaheen (78%) than GOPers behind Sununu (93%), and the undeclared break in favor of the Republican.

One possible explanation is that Shaheen was on the news in the past two weeks... after her husband made those comments about Obama's drug use. Possible. If that it is, it will probably not last. NH is currently ranked number 2 of my Senate Rankings, and this poll is such an outlier from everything we have seen that it is impossible to take it into account to change the assessment of the race. But it goes without saying that we'll keep a close on the next few New Hampshire Senate polls -- if Sununu is tied or ahead, we have a race in our hand. Which would be a huge blow for Democrats.

SUSA surveys most competitive Senate races and finds Democrats in good shape

Awesome morning for political junkies, as SurveyUSA has just released a poll from the seven most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Democrats look very good in six of them, but Maine still looks out of reach. In order of vulnerability:

• Virginia

Mark Warner looks like a done deal. He has one of the best favorability rating of any candidate polled by SUSA (49% favorable versus 23% unfavorable), certainly better than his opponent Jim Gilmore's (21-31). Warner leads Gilmore by a massive 57% to 35% -- in line with other polls we have seen, and big enough for the GOP to not even try.

There have been small rumors that George Allen might still jump in the Senate race, but SUSA shows that he would still badly trail Warner, 52% to 42%.

• New Hampshire

Here is another race with the Democratic challenger up by double-digits. Former Governor Shaheen leads Senator Sununu 53% to 42%. Strengthening her lead are the internals that have Shaheen's favorability rating at a strong 46-33, while Sununu has a negative rating at 31-38.

• Colorado

This is the first independent poll of the race that has pushed undecideds, and it helped Democrat Udall have his first lead of the cycle as independents break for him. Udall has a narrow edge, 48% to 41%, against Republican Bob Schaeffer. Udall has a good favorability rating (30-19), but both men are mainly unknown statewide.

• New Mexico

SUSA did a strange job here, as they tried both Republicans (Pearce and Wilson) against Chavez, Denish and Richardson (the latter two have made it clear they are not running), but not against Tom Udall who is looking at the race now and who many see as a stronger candidate. But Democrats still get good news with Chavez, who leads both Republicans: 48% to 43% against Pearce and 48% to 44% against Wilson.

This is much better than the SUSA poll of the beginning of October when Chavez was crushed by Pearce. But SUSA confirms how much stronger Governor Richardson would be, as he leads Pearce 58 to 37% and Wilson 59% to 37%. Another interesting finding: Most candidates are either unknown or aren't very polarizing, but Heather Wilson has a very high unfavorable rating: 48%. Probably because of the attorney general scandal.

• Minnesota

Minnesota has not been polled a lot, but Senator Coleman already appeared under 50% in the few polls that have been released. But this latest survey has Coleman weaker than we have ever seen him. He is tied with Democrat Mike Ciresi at 44%, and is ahead by an insignificant point against Al Franken, 46% to 45%. One factor against Franken is his high unfavorable rating: 37%, against 22% favorable. Coleman also has 37% unfavorable, but 36% favorable. This should still comfort those who say Franken cannot be elected.

• Oregon

I believe this is the first poll of Oregon we have seen all year, and Democrats will be relieved that Senator Gordon Smith is as vulnerable as they thought. He is under 50% against both his Democratic opponents: 48% to 39% against Jeff Merkley and 45% to 39% against Steve Novick. Adding to this, both Democrats are huge unknowns (67% and 78% of voters are unfamiliar with them, respectively), so they certainly have a lot of room to grow.

• Maine

And then comes Maine, and the third poll in two weeks that has Susan Collins with a massive lead against Democratic challenger Rep. Tom Allen... and more importantly, above 50%. She is ahead of Allen 55% to 38%, and posts a strong favorability rating: 48% to 25%. Allen cannot even rely on the hope voters don't know him, as only 11% are unfamiliar with him.

All in all, Democrats lead in four races, are tied in another, have made a sixth vulnerable and have a long way to go in the last -- and this does not even account for possible hot races in NC, AK or KY.