Senate: NRSC's move towards giving up VA and NM, plus a variety of polls

Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, has been setting a lot of expectations lately. After declaring that his goal for the year was to prevent the Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof majority (and thus limit the loss to eight seats), Ensign has now shifted to a wiser refrain: It will be good news, he explained, if the GOP only loses three seats in November. But at this same lunch with reporters, Ensign made some news by taking the first step towards giving up on Virginia and New Mexico. "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win," he said.

An NRSC decision that a race should no longer merits investments would go a long way towards sealing a seat's fate, for both Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore will need the help of the national party to keep up with the momentum that is carrying their Democratic opponents. In 2006, the NRSC's decision to pull out of Ohio effectively handed the election to Sharrod Brown who coasted to an unexpectedly easy victory over the incumbent Republican.

Another interesting tidbit in Ensign's comments is his list of the 10 most competitive races. Ensign includes North Carolina and Maine and does not even make a stab at spin by putting in New Jersey (though Collins is polling better than Lautenberg at this point). Yet, there is no sign of Mississippi! Despite the fact that (1) Ronnie Musgrove has been leading Senator Wicker in a number of polls, (2) despite predictions of increased black turnout, (3) despite the fact that party affiliations will not be printed on the ballot and (4) despite Travis Childers's victory in MS-01 last month, Mississippi continues to be treated as a long shot by most analysts. This attitude is indeed not exclusive to Ensign. Even Chuck Schumer rated MS a third-tier race in a recent interview. What more does Musgrove need to do to prove that this Southern special election is among the hottest races of the country?

Meanwhile, 5 new Senate polls were released in the past two days, only two of which concern competitive races. Here are these polls, in the order in which the contests are ordered in my latest Senate rankings:

• In Minnesota, Norm Coleman edges out Al Franken 48% to 45%, a similar margin than his 2% lead last month.
• Rasmussen also polled a three way match-up including former Governor Jesse Ventura. Coleman leads 39% to 32% to Franken and 24% to Ventura, who (as is expected) takes votes from the challenger.

• In Oregon, Jeff Merkley got no bounce from his primary victory as he now trails incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith 47% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Last month, Smith was ahead by 3% -- though Democrats ought to be satisfied that they are keeping Smith under 50%.

• In Kansas, Cooper & Secrest Associates released a poll of the Senate race that is the third consecutive survey showing Pat Roberts leading his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Slattery, by 12% and the first one in which he dips under the 50% mark, leading 48% to 36%.

• In Iowa, Senator Harkin is leading challenger Christopher Reed 53% to 37% and posting a favorability rating of 59% in a new Rasmussen survey.
  

• In Michigan, finally, no surprises in the latest Rasmussen poll that has Senator Carl Levin leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 55% to 30%. Hoogendyk is largely unknown but Levin has a strong favorability rating, making him an unlikely target.
  

Of these 5 races, Minnesota and Oregon are the two interesting ones. Despite the repeated polls showing some potential for Slattery and despite the GOP's (thwarted) determination early this cycle to field a credible challenger to Harkin, these two races have a long way to go before joining the list of competitive races, though the DSCC might hope that Kansas Democrats will be more enthused than usual if Governor Sebelius is tapped on Obama's ticket.

In Minnesota, despite the media firestorm that has recently been surrounding Al Franken years as a comedian and the unexpected difficulties that popped up on his way to the DFL's endorsement, the Democratic challenger is holding strong, suggesting that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent and on the Republican Party. With Minnesota showing signs of moving back to its solidly Democratic roots, Coleman will remain endangered and he should worry if he could not open up a bigger margin after such a favorable month of press coverage. As for the Jesse Ventura question, the former Governor has declared that he will make up his mind at the last minute. The filing deadline is mid-July so we will have to wait a few more weeks to see whether Ventura will wreak havoc in this senatorial race.

Senate: Mississippi battleground and Franken troubles

If Democrats end up losing the Senate race in Mississippi, they can blame the Mississippi Supreme Court's unfair decision to allow Governor Barbour to not call a March special election to replace Trent Lott. Indeed, while the state remains staunchly Republican, last month's special election in MS-01 confirmed that the GOP will need the increased turnout of a presidential election to resolve the enthusiasm gap. Furthermore, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is almost polling like an incumbent right now. He is better-known than newly-appointed Senator Wicker, a rare situation for a challenger to be in.

Rasmussen's new Senate polls from the two Mississippi races confirms that the Musgrove-Wicker showdown will be one of the top contests this cycle, and one that could actually get Democrats close to a 60 seat majority:

• Musgrove edges out Wicker 47% to 46%. Both men have a 49% favorability rating, while 18% are not sure of their impression of Wicker (versus only 9% for Musgrove).
  

• In the state's other Senate race, Senator Cochran is crushing challenger Erik Fleming 58% to 35%, as expected.

• Note that in Rasmussen's poll of the Alabama Senate race, there are also no surprises as GOP Senator Sessions crushes Vivian Figures 62% to 29%.
  

Cochran seat was long watched as there were mounting rumors that the longtime Senator might retire, but it is Trent Lott that unexpectedly jumped out, making the special election for his seat the more interesting ones and essentially giving Cochran a free pass.

Meanwhile, Al Franken continues to be in trouble in the Minnesota Senate race continues. After the controversy over Franken's tax return that the GOP is already looking to exploit mercilessly in the months ahead, it is now Franken's past writings that are coming back to haunt him as an essay Franken wrote in Playboy in 2000 has now been unearthed. Democratic congressmen are now openly worrying that Franken could drag them down because of past writings from his satirical/comical days. Rep. Betty McCollum is now criticizing the essay as "indefensible" and "pornographic," worried that it will hurt the state's entire Democratic slate. Explaining that her phone is ringing "off the hook," McCollum revealed that she was not sure whether she would support Franken in the general election!

The Politico quotes a Democratic operative as saying that, "We’re looking at having these pornographic writings tagged onto Democrats. That doesn’t seem to be a good strategy to expand our majorities in the House." Ouch. This is certainly not enough to sink Franken's candidacy -- after all, Minnesota did elect Jesse Ventura in the 1990s and Jim Webb survived revelations about graphic writings in Virginia in 2006 -- but given that his main challenge is to demonstrate that he is a "serious" candidate, Porn-O-Rama is strengthening doubts that were already lingering about the Democrat.

After a year of admiring articles praising him for a successful transition from comic to politician, the tide appears to have turned. Yet, the DFL's convention is in a month, and it is difficult to see how Franken could not be chosen ever since rival Mike Ciresi abruptly dropped out of the race. Also, it is important to keep things in perspective: Despite the increasing criticism Franken is facing, he is holding his own in polls. The latest survey found him trailing by only 2%.

Update: Late-night Senate news from Texas in the form of a poll.

• GOP firm Baselice & Associates finds Senator Cornyn leading Rick Noriega 49% to 34%.
  

While the incumbent is under 50%, that is a much more reassuring margin than the back-to-back 47% to 43% leads he posted in Rasmussen and Research 2000 earlier in May. Despite those numbers, I had left the race in 12th position in my latest Senate rankings to reflect the enormity of the task that lies ahead of Noriega. He must not only rely on an environment that is toxic to Republicans but soften up Cornyn much more than he is now to score what would be a big upset.

Down-the-ballot: Yet another GOP recruitment failure, tight races in MS and OR (Update: and NC)

A significant number of down-the-ballot news this morning, but to start with don't forget to check my newly updated Senate rankings. House ratings should follow as quickly as possible. The day's first development concerns NY-13, where Republicans are hitting yet another recruitment wall. Rep. Vito Fossella's decision to retire in November created yet another open seat headache for the GOP in a Democratic-leaning seat in a Democratic-leaning state. It is hardly surprising, then, that potential Republican candidates would be reluctant to attempt a run here.

Yesterday, Staten Island DA Dan Donovan, who was recently re-elected with 68% of the vote in a borough-wide vote that covers a large portion of the NY-13 district, took himself out of the running. Donovan had been heavily courted by the national party and he was the clear favorite to take the Republican spot on the November ballot. Donovan did not cite any specific reasons but his desire to continue working as a DA to complete the tasks he has started.

The road thus just got that much tougher for Republicans to hold on to this seat. They will now turn to state Senator Andrew Lanza but recruiting state senators is not what New York's Republican Party wants to be doing considering that their majority in that chamber -- their last seat of power in the Empire State -- hangs by a thread.

Meanwhile, Republicans are continuing their offensive against Al Franken in Minnesota's Senate race. After Franken's self-induced debacle over taxes, which has already considerably weakened the challenger, the GOP is now doing what we knew they would do sooner or later: Use Franken's comedian past as opposition research material. I am doubtful this kind of attack can work, as shown by Sen. Allen's attempt to use Jim Webb's strangely graphic novels against him in the 2006 campaign. That effort probably backfired, and as long as Franken can portray himself as a credible candidate that ought to be taken seriously, the press will continue marveling at the comedian-to-politician transition. In further news from this race, former Governor Jesse Ventura is now considering jumping in as an independent, in what would obviously make the contest wild and unpredictable.

Furthermore, we got a series of polls from Senate and House races:

• First, Research 2000 polled the Mississippi Senate race and found Senator Wicker leading Ronnie Musgrove 46% to 42%. A DSCC poll a few days ago found Musgrove up 8% and with a better favorability rating.


• Second, the DSCC released yet another internal poll, this one from the Oregon Senate race. It shows Gordon Smith leading Jeff Merkley 45% to 42%, and the poll was taken before the May 20th primary, so any post-primary bounce for Merkley would not be recorded here.


• Update: Third, a conservative institute, the Civitas Group, just released a poll showing Elizabeth Dole ahead by only 2% against Kay Hagan, 45% to 43%. One more proof that the NC-Sen race is much more competitive than was thought just 3 weeks ago.


• Update #2: A Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire race confirms that Sununu is the most endangered incumbent this cycle, as he continues to trail his challenger Jeanne Shaheen, 50% to 43%.

Both results are satisfactory for Democrats as they confirm that these two races are toss-ups heading into November. The OR numbers are an internal poll but they correspond to the latest Rasmussen poll of the race. Also, MS polls are likely to show very differing results over the next 6 months because the margin would vary widely if you adjust the proportion of white and black voters by just a point or two. If Obama heads the ticket pollsters will have to decide how much to weigh black turnout, and those decisions will impact the numbers that are released.

Finally, two -- rare and very exciting -- new House polls were released:

• In CO-04, an internal poll for the Markey campaign shows Rep. Musgrove leading Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 46% to 42%.

• In MO-06, another race that is on everyone's toss-up list shows reassuring news for GOP incumbent Sam Graves, who leads Kay Barnes, the former Mayor of Kansas City, 49% to 39%. Barnes' support among registered Democrat is (still?) weak.

The Graves campaign attracted a lot of attention last week by hitting Barnes for a fundraising trip she took to San Fransisco with Nancy Pelosi and aired a truly remarkably over-the-top ad that seems to come right out of SNL's ad-parody efforts. The ad is too recent to be said to have have influenced the SUSA poll and it will be interesting to see how it impacts the race. Barnes is already out with a brutal response ad, but here's the original spot:

Senate: OR and KY pick their nominees, Dem leads in MS

The week's biggest political news continues to be Ted Kennedy's health condition, as the longtime Massachusetts Senator was released from the hospital today in seemingly excellent condition. It is still difficult to talk about the political consequences of these developments as we know too little about Kennedy's condition and his plans.

Meanwhile, the Oregon and Kentucky Senate races were set last night as two contested primaries were settled. In Oregon, state House speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly bested Steve Novick who ran a surprisingly strong campaign and ended up 4 percent short of victory. The DSCC thus got its wish, though there were few indications that Merkley would be a particularly stronger candidate against GOP incumbent Gordon Smith. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Smith besting Merkley by only 3 percent, though that by far the best poll Merkley has seen.

The DSCC's choice also won in Kentucky, as Bruce Lunsford handily beat businessman Greg Fisher. Lunsford, who lost the 2007 gubernatorial primary, will now face a Senate giant, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Senator looked to be very vulnerable in the fall but a series of recruitment failures by Democrats made his a much safer bet. Lunsford should not be able to do much more than take advantage of the toxic environment for the GOP; even if elected, he would be a very conservative Democrat. He endorsed Republican Ernie Fletcher in 2003's gubernatorial race after he did not get the Democratic primary, and has donated to McConnell's senatorial campaign.

Meanwhile, two new polls from Senate races that were supposed to be second-tier at best are bringing good news for Democrats:

• In North Carolina, it is SUSA's turn to confirm that Elizabeth Dole is in very real danger. She leads state Senator Kay Hagan 50% to 46%, a very narrow margin for an incumbent facing a little-known opponent. This is a contest in which Obama boosting black turnout could have a very real effect down-the-ballot. One area Hagan will have to work on: independents prefer Dole by 16%.

• In Mississippi, an internal poll released by the DSCC shows former Governor Ronnie Musgrove leading Republican incumbent Roger Wicker 48% to 40%. Like every partisan poll, this has to be taken with a grain of salt but it does paint a worrisome picture for the GOP. Musgrove is well-known and well-liked (his favorability rating is 57% to 30%) while Wicker is still mostly unknown 5 months after his appointment to fill Trent Lott's seat. That does mean that he has room to grow in the coming months.

• Update: Rasmussen released a new poll from Colorado, showing Udall slightly expanding his lead against Schaffer. He is now ahead 47% to 41%. Given how tough the past month has been for Schaffer, it is a disappointment for Dems that they are not further ahead and a relief for the GOP that all is not lost.
  

Both North Carolina and Mississippi have Democrats licking their lips at the extent to which they are expanding the map this cycle. It is numbers like this that make a 60-seat majority not as utopian a dream as was thought just a few weeks ago. The numbers in Mississippi are particularly interesting as they confirm a prior poll taken in late 2007 that showed Musgrove in the lead. Remember that Democrats were trying to force a special election in March, before Wicker had time to develop an incumbency advantage. A lower court judge ruled in their favor but the state Supreme Court overturned that decision. This poll suggests that Musgrove could be Senator now if Democrats had gotten their wish, but the road could get tougher in the months ahead as Wicker improves his name recognition and the GOP advantage of a presidential year kicks in.

In other down-the-ballot but non-Senate news, here are two polls from 2 of the only 4 contested gubernatorial races, both released by SUSA:

• In what is shaping to be an unexpectedly tight race, Beverly Perdue has a small lead over Republican Pat MacCrory, 52% to 45%. Both won a contested primary on May 6th. A Rasmussen poll released last week showed MacCrory besting Perdue.

• In Missouri, however, it will be very difficult for the GOP to even keep the race competitive as they are running against Jay Nixon who has been preparing for this race for years. He is trouncing the two Republican candidates running for this open seat, by 25% and 26%.
  

The primary victory of Charlotte Mayor MacCrory means that the North Carolina gubernatorial race is the GOP's best pick-up chance among all the Senate and governor's contests. That the race remains a toss-up speaks to the Republicans' disadvantage this cycle.

Mississippi and Nebraska Dems aim red state Senate seats

In what has been the most unpredictable Senate race of the 2008 cycle, the Mississippi seat left open by Trent Lott's stunning December resignation has just had one more development. Former Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows announced yesterday that he was dropping out of the race, endorsing fellow candidate Ronnie Musgrove, the state's former Governor.

Hurt by the state Supreme Court's decision to side with Gov. Barbour and allow the special election to be held as late as November, Democrats had lost some of their confidence in their ability to pick up this seat. The recently appointed incumbent, Sen. Wicker, now has many months to build up an incumbency advantage and raise money in D.C., giving him an advantage he would not have had if the election was held in March as it was supposed to for a while.

But Shows's withdrawal from the race gives them some cause for relief, and serves as a reminder that Democrats are determined to make this race competitive. The Mississippi race is a special election, which means that it does not have a primary but a runoff-system: All candidates from any party will be on the same ballot and the top two will go to a runoff if no one gets 50%. In other words, the division of the Democratic vote between Musgrove and Snows would have made it very impossible for a Democrat to win on November 4th and would have allowed Wicker to coast to 50% by making Musgrove and Shows take aim at each other (this is what happened in the Lousiana 2004 Senate race, for example).

With Shows out, the race is a one-on-one contest with no obvious favorite. While Wicker should be given an edge as the Republican incumbent in a very red state and in a presidential year, two polls taken earlier this year show that Musgrove will be very competitive (one of the survey has him ahead) and will now be able to fully campaign against the incumbent instead of worrying about Shows. This is not at the top of Democratic chances, but the DSCC is committed to expanding the map and they have plenty of money to spend, so expect the party to make a major play here.

Meanwhile, Nebraska Democrats finally got a candidate in their state's open seat. Once upon a time this race looked to be one of the DSCC's best pick-up opportunity, but that was before former Senator Bob Kerrey and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey announced they would not run. After that, most of the speculation concentrated on Scott Kleeb, the Democratic candidate in NE-03 in 2006. NE-03 is the sixth most Republican district in the country, but Kleeb got a stunning 45% of the vote after running a surprisingly competitive campaign.

Now, Kleeb looks ready to announce his candidacy for the Senate. But this time he is running a statewide campaign against a very popular Republican, former Governor Johanns, who starts off the race very heavily favored.

In blow to Senate Democrats, Mississippi Supreme Court sides with Gov. Barbour

I was thinking of ways to escape the curse of the never-ending Democratic primary race (Clinton is now 210 votes up in New Mexico and the CA delegate count is nowhere close to finish) when the Mississippi Supreme Court helped me change the subject by releasing its decision on the timing of the special election for Sen. Trent Lott former Senate seat.

On January 14th, Judge DeLaughter ruled in favor of Attorney Genearl Jim Hood, who had filed the suit. DeLaughter argued that the law clearly stated that the election had to be held "on or before March 19, 2008." (For a background of the controversy, check here).

But in a blow to Democrats (and to common sense), the Court over-turned the decision of a lower court by a 7-2 vote and ruled that Gov. Barbour has the authority to set the election on November 4th. So we will not be allowed the pleasure of following an explosive Senate race in the middle of the spring -- though I admit we will have plenty of other races to follow.

This decision is a boost for the GOP and their chances of holding this seat. Newly appointed Sen. Wicker will now have many more months to develop the advantage of incumbency and get free media exposure, implementing himself in the state. More importantly, the election will now be held the same day as the presidential race, which means that it will be a high turnout affair and that the Democratic candidate, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, will have to convince many voters to split their tickets.

If the election had been held in 6 weeks as was the plan until this late intervention by the MS Supreme Court, Musgrove would have relied on a lower turnout election in which the issue would be getting the most motivated supporters at the polls. Given the DSCC's financial advantage and the enthusiasm gap between the two parties everywhere in the South, that would have given Musgrove hope of prevailing in a special election.

In other Senate news, two polls were released last week from New Mexico and Minnesota. Since I was already blogging about little else than polls at the time, I thought I would hold off to these for a few days, and this seems to be the perfect opportunity to share them:

• In MN, a Minnesota Public Radio poll (PDF) is the first survey to have Al Franken ahead of GOP incumbent Coleman, albeit by a small margin: 43% to 40%. Coleman beats Mike Ciresi, another Democrat running for the nomination, 43% to 38%.


• Meanwhile, a New Mexico Senate poll has Democrat Udall crushing his Republican opponents, 53% to 31% against Steve Pearce and 58% to 30% against Heather Wilson.

Both set of numbers are very much in line with other polls we have seen over the past few months, particularly in New Mexico where Democrats have got to be happy with the way things are shaping, as they got their strongest candidate short of Bill Richardson.

In Minnesota, this poll has to please the DSCC who has been having difficulty expanding the map over the past few months. Recruitment failures and worrisome polls in places like Maine have led Republicans to argue that the second-tier of races (Oregon, Minnesota, Maine) is holding firm for them, but Al Franken's lead in this poll should give Democrats comfort. Also, it is very important for Franken to prove that he is a serious candidate and not just a comedian. After all, he is still engaged in a very competitive Democratic primary.

One last note from North Carolina's Governor race where an entry by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has suddenly given Republicans hope they can pull an upset in a state that votes Republican in federal elections but remains blue at the state level. A new Rasmussen poll shows McCrory would keep things close but starts as a slight underdog, as he is trailing 39% to 34% against Attorney General Richard Moore and 42% to 38% against LG Beverly Perdue.

Breaking: Mississippi Judge rules in favor of Hood, election to be held by March 19th

No more excuses to only follow the presidential race, get ready for a major Senate showdown before March 19th. After listening to the case brought by Mississippi's Attorney General Jim Hood that Governor Barbour had overstepped his authority in setting November 4th as the day of the special election, Judge DeLaughter came out with his decision with surprising speed and ruled against Barbour. The election has to be held, he wrote, "within 90 days of the governor's Dec. 20, 2007 proclamation of writ of election...on or before March 19, 2008." (For a background of this controversy, check here).

Barbour is likely to appeal the decision and take it to the state Supreme Court, so we have not heard the last of this controversy. But until the ruling is overturned, both parties will start preparing for an election within the next 2 months.

This is great news for the Democrats' chance of picking up this seat. Given Mississippi's conservative leanings, everything has to break right for them to have a chance of unseating the newly-appointed Republican senator. And they now have two reasons to celebrate: (1) Sen. Wicker will not have time to develop the advantage of incumbency (raise money, get some clout in DC, bring some money home, get free media exposure) and (2) the election will not be held the same day as the presidential race. It will be a low turnout affair and Democrats will have to bank on much less ticket splitting, which is always good (chances are Burns and Allen could have gotten those few thousands votes if their re-elections were not held in 2006, a midterm year).

The problem for Democrats is that they have two candidates in the race (former Gov. Musgrove and former Rep. Snows), and there is no primary since this is a special election. They will have to hold Wicker under 50% on the first round of voting and not get too nasty between each other to get a majority in the runoff -- which is certainly not an easy exercise, so maybe Schumer should see if he can convince one of them to drop out. Apart from that, the race looks sure to be competitive. There have been two polls for now, one with Wicker up 7% (of which the pollster himself said that he had undersampled black voters) and one with Musgrove up 12%.

Congressional diary: Good news for the GOP in California, Mississippi and North Carolina

Now that Iowa and New Hampshire have voted, there is a bit more time to look into down-the-ballot races. And Republicans just got some great congressional news over the past week.

• CA-04: Doolittle is out

Rep. Doolittle from CA-04 has finally decided to retire, which is truly amazing news for House Republicans. Doolittle is under investigation for his connections to Jack Abramoff and the judicial pressure was intensifying in recent months with a raid to his house and grand jury subpoenas. As a result, Doolittle was insured to go down to defeat next November against Democratic candidate Brown who barely lost in 2006. I have been rating the district Lean Democratic for a few months now in my House ratings.

CA-04 is heavily Republican territory and the GOP knew that it would have infinitely less trouble keeping the seat if Doolittle retired or was forced out by the pressure of the investigation. But Doolittle was showing no indication of backing down and was vowing to press forward past the primary and the general election. Now, Republicans got what they want and have to be considered the overwhelming favorites to retain the district. My House ratings will be updated soon accordingly.

Democrats still have some chance of keeping this competitive; after all, Brown already ran once before so he is starting to build some name recognition. And 2006 showed that Democrats could win in districts with ethically challenged representatives even when the incumbent ended up withdrawing, the obvious example being OH-18 where Rep. Ney withdrew in September and was quickly replaced, with the GOP celebrating that they could finally hope to keep the seat. Democrat Zach Space ended up crushing his opponent. CA-04 is not OH-18, however. Not only is Doolittle not indicted yet, but he is retiring in January rather than withdrawing from the ballot at the last minute.

• MS-Sen: More than one Democrat

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief last week when former Governor Musgrove jumped in the Mississippi Senate special election against newly-appointed Senator Wicker. But they now have another candidate who has jumped in the race, former Rep. Ronnie Snows who lost his House seat in 2002 when MS lost a congressional seat and Snows could not hold his redrawn district.

This would not be a problem under normal conditions, as Snows and Musgrove would just face off in a primary-- and there is little evidence that competitive primaries hurt the party come the general election as long as competitors don't get too nasty. But this contest is a special election, which means that it does not have a primary but a runoff-system. All candidates from any party will be on the same ballot and the top two will go to a runoff if no one gets 50%. In other words, the division of the Democratic vote makes it impossible for either Snows or Musgrove to win this in the first round and the party will have to find a way to keep Wicker under 50% in that first voting. The problem of course is that Democrats will aim much of their fire at each other, allowing Wicker to get more of a free pass than he would otherwise and thus try and aim for a majority outright (one recent example of this dynamic is the 2006 special election in CA-50, a very Republican district, where Democrat Busby almost got 50% in the first round in a field with many Republican candidates who were pounding each other, but then was much further from victory in the runoff).

• NC-Gov: Republicans now have a serious shot

Despite its being an open-seat, the North Carolina gubernatorial contest was looking to be an easy hold for Democrats. The incumbent party is running two strong candidates -- Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- and Republicans were counting on weaker candidates that have little chance of prevailing given NC's blue coloring in local elections.

But that could all soon change as Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is taking the first steps towards jumping in the race for the GOP nomination. McCrory could be a much stronger candidate than the other GOPers in the race, and a recent Rasmussen poll showed him leading both Moore and Perdue. The governorship has been in Democratic hands for 16 years now, but this could become one of the hottest gubernatorial races of 2008 (which, to be fair, is not saying much).

Democrats have a candidate in MS-Sen, the GOP is losing an incumbent in LA-06

Score one for Democrats. Stung by former Attorney General Mike Moore's decision to not run in Mississippi's special Senate election, Democrats finally got some good news today as their second-choice, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, announced he was jumping in the race. He will run in against newly-appointed Senator Wicker -- which could end up being slightly awkward. From the Sun-Herald article: "Musgrove and Wicker are longtime friends and shared an apartment in Jackson when they served together in the state Senate."

The two polls taken of the race in the past few weeks have Musgrove very competitive against Wicker; one of the two even shows him ahead by double-digits -- so anything could happen here, and this is not a seat Republicans wanted to defend.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Jim Hood has now gone to court and is suing Governor Barbour to force him to schedule the election in the next 3 months. Barbour, of course, has scheduled it on November 4th, which would help Wicker tremendously by leaving him more time to build incumbency and making his election coincide with the presidential race and its boosted turnout. I don't have a sense yet of what to expect timing-wise here, and when rulings would be likely to come in. Expect decisions in the coming weeks, however, as this is clearly an emergency situation.

Meanwhile, Republicans might be on the verge of losing yet another congressman to lobbying firms, and once again have him resign in the middle of his term. Louisiana's Richard Baker who represents Baton Rouge has notified the House Clerk that he is interviewing wiht Hedge Funds Association -- a lobbying group which represents investment banks and hedge funds. If he gets the job, he says, he will quit within the month, which would lead to yet another special election. I think we can all agree that this is in very poor form and that it just speaks of the poor ethics of congressmen that they find it acceptable to quit in the middle of a two-year elected term to make more money.

This district (LA-06) is not as Republican as some of the others that are opening up lately and Democrats already have a candidate, state Rep. Don Cazayoux Jr., who was expected to run no matter what. Talk about expanding the map to districts that were nowhere on the radar screen just a few days ago. The last thing the GOP wants right now is to defend seats in special elections given how much money they had to spend to win OH-05 and how little resources they have left.

Mississippi has a new Senator and two special elections coming up

Governor Barbour just announced his choice to replace resigning Senator Lott and, after all this time, he settled on the early favorite anyway, Rep. Roger Wicker -- now Senator Wicker. First elected in 1994, Wicker will now leave his House seat creating yet another vacancy; he represents a conservative seat that Bush has carried with 62% of the vote, so it should not create too much headaches for the GOP (though it could certainly turn into a somewhat competitive race given the trackrecord of recent special elections).

Wicker is only the fifth Senator from Mississippi in 60 years, as the state has had very long serving senators who have tended to not be strongly challenged. So Wicker's first election race could very well be his toughest. And the big question, of course, is when this election will be held: On November 4th, as Barbour wants? Or within 90 days, as the law seems to require?

Two weeks ago, the state's Attorney General Hood issued an opinion siding against Barbour, and it is now likely that he will drag this to court. So look for this issue to be decided in emergency fashion since the whole question is about whether the election has to be held with 90 days. This is going to be the first big down-the-ballot story of 2008 and if Democrats and Hood win the day, we will have a special Senate election by the end of March! That would naturally give more hope for the Democratic candidate as Wicker would have less time to develop incumbency advantage.

The second question, of course, is who will run for Democrats against Wicker. Former Attorney General Mike Moore who was deemed the strongest contender by far announced earlier this month that he would not run, dealing a blow to Democratic hopes. Now most speculation is centered on former Governor Musgrove who had expressed interest in the race. There have been two polls of a Musgrove-Wicker race in the past two weeks -- and they both present problems.

The first was a Research 2000 survey that showed Wicker up 46% to 39% -- but the pollsters acknowledged they had undersampled African-Americans. The second is a Greenberg internal poll done for Musgrove, and it shows the Democrat up double-digit against Wicker. But an internal poll is always more likely to show positive results, though Greenberg is a reputed Democratic pollster.

Congressional diary: Will Alaska and Mississippi rise to the top tier of Senate races?

I usually try to cover congressional races every day, but the latest time I wrote a post on Senate or House contests was on December 19th. Clearly, the end of the year is making congressional elections quiet, and the only reason we have this much to cover right now is that Iowa is voting on January 3rd. But there definitely are a few newsworthy item down-the-ballot.

MS-Sen: Trent Lott officially resigned on the 18th, and Governor Barbour by law has 11 days to appoint a replacement, so we should know today or tomorrow who the new Senator from Mississippi is. Things should go pretty quickly after that: If Democrats want to drag Barbour to court (as they clearly are planning to do they will have to do so fast.

And here is some hope for Democrats in this race: An internal poll conducted by the Musgrove campaign (by the Democratic-leaning Greenberg group) and obtained by the Daily Journal has Musgrove leading one of the two likely GOP nominees, Rep. Wicker, 48% to 34%. A Research 2000 poll conducted last week had Wicker up by single-digits on Musgove, but it looks like the Research 2000 poll significantly under-polled African-Americans. This internal poll is reportedly much closer to the actual proportion of black voters: 33% (34% of the electorate in the last statewide election was African-American).

Another reason to give credence to this poll more than to the typical internal poll: Surveys taken when a candidate is still looking to jump in the race are often conducted to measure whether the race could be competitive and whether it is worth it for the candidate to jump in, so it seems unlikely they would want to make it too bias for their candidate since that would defeat the point. So does this mean that (1) Musgrove will jump in the race after seeing such numbers, and that (2) we have a real race in our hands?

AK-Sen: Two news items in the Alaska Senate race. One, Senator Ted Stevens has drawn a primary challenger, very wealthy developer David Cuddy who already challenged Stevens in 1996 -- only drawing 27%. Times are different today and all GOP incumbents are ultra-tarnished by corruption scandals. The incumbent govenor came in third in a primary just last year. Stevens is one of the most entrenched incumbents in the country, and he is obvioulsy favored to win the nomination again; but he will have to fight for it... and could this push him to renounce to running for re-election if he does not want to spend the whole year campaigning? That would actually be a benediction for Republicans, as a fresh untarnished face could have an easier time holding the seat.

And the second item is about Mark Begich, the Anchorage Mayor who Democrats want to see jump in the race against Stevens. The news last month was that Begich would not announce a run before the spring (March or April) but that he would let people know by the end of 2007 if he was not running to let other people have a change to go for it. In other words, if we did not hear anything by the end of the year, we should assume that Begich is running. Going on that, it now is looking increasingly likely that we will see a real contest in Alaska, since Begich has the ability to make this a top-tier race (a recent poll had him leading Stevens).

Whatever happened to everything breaking for Democrats in congressional races?

Earlier in the fall, seemingly everything was breaking for Democrats in congressional races. An endless stream of retirements by Republicans in both the Senate and the House, recruitment coups, fundraising prowess. But in the past two months, the GOP has gotten some huge lucky breaks, starting with the mounting number of Democrats who passed on Senate races when their entrance alone would have made the contest huge pick-up opportunities (Kerrey and Fahey in Nebraska, Moore in Mississippi, Luallen in Kentucky...). Fine, things are still looking very rosy for Senate and House Democrats -- but we've got to admit that the seemingly endless streak of good news has been broken.

And Democrats get too more pieces of bad news tonight. In Minnesota, first of all, there are now stunning reports that Rep. Ramstad could un-retire! He retired a few months ago, opening up a very competitive House seat that Democrats have been salivating over. So it would obviously be a huge blow to Democrats -- and a huge (and unexpected) victory for the NRCC if Ramstad actually retires. Democrats might be frustrated enough to mount a race against him and make it competitive -- but it would obviously not be as big a target if Ramstad had ran.

And news item number two is that Kentucky Attorney General Stumbo actually looks set to run for his old state House seat back instead of running for the Senate against McConnell. The rumor had been floated a while ago but now the state Rep who holds his old seat resigned when he had said he would run for re-election. And Stumbo is set to release a statement tomorrow, which could possibly be announcing that he won't run for Senate. Stumbo had formed an explanatory committee so this would definitely be a recruitment failure for Democrats. Andrew Horne is in the race for them already, and we have yet to see how competitive he could be against McConnell.

• Legal showdown in Mississippi coming up, as Trent Lott officially resigns... before New Year's

While Mike Moore's refusal to enter the race last week was a major blow to Democratic chances, remember that this race did not even exist a few weeks ago! So anything that happens for Democrats here is an awesome bonus. And things are once again picking up.

Trent Lott officially resigned today. The fact that he did not wait until after New Year's to do so when he creates enormous problems for his party by doing so just about proves that he is resigning because of the new lobbying law that takes effect on January 1st and that bans congressmen who leave office then from lobbying their former colleges for two years. And this now means that (1) we will know Lott's replacement by the end of next week, and (2) Governor Barbour will have a huge legal fight on his hands: He wants to set the special election to replace Lott for November, but the law's intention ispretty clearly that the election must be held within a 100 days of vacancy -- i.e. by the end of March.

The state Attorney General issued an opinion today that says that the law unambiguously means for a special election to be held by then -- and threatens to draw this to court if Barbour still tries to set the election for November -- which he surely will. We can only guess this should be resolved fast in the court given that the whole point would be the need to have an election within 100 days.

Meanwhile, we get our first poll of the race today, though the survey also tests Mike Moore who is no longer considering running:

• Mike Moore trailed Gop Rep. Wicker 46% to 39% and Rep. Pickering 45% to 41%. Now that he is out, the other major viable candidate for Dems is former Musgrove, who trails Wicker 46%to 39%, and Pickering 45% to 39%.

Naturally, the more time the Republican replacement for Lott (who could be someone else than Wicker and Pickering) has before the special election, the more time for him to build up incumbency. The GOP clearly starts favored -- and it would be especially so if the election coincidences with the presidential one, with increased turnout helping Republicans here. But whatever happens, this is not a headache the GOP wanted to have -- and it does not want to have to spend resources in a special election either in March or in November. The race looks to be within single-digits, so it should be close to the end.

Yet another recruitment failure for Senate Democrats

So much for the excitement generated by Senator Lott's retirement. Much of the Democratic hope was based on former Attorney General Mike More running for them, as many believed he would. But Moore dashed the DSCC's hopes by announcing today he is out of the race:

I met with the leadership in the U.S. Senate while I was in town and talked with many of my friends, former attorneys general who serve their states well as U.S. Senators. The message was clear - the job of Senator is important and fulfilling; the polls show I could win; and I would have the money I needed to win the race. It all just came down to whether it was best for me and my family. The truth is I made my decision four years ago, and it has been a good one for my family and me.

Interesting that Moore would write that the polls show he can win, since there have been no rumors or leaks of any internal poll conducted by the DSCC or by Moore. And we thus don't know if other Democrats are polling as well. Moore out, Democrats don't have many competitive option. Though they have a few potential candidates who could make things competitive (for example former Governor Musgrove), but it appeared that Moore was definitely the one who would give the GOP the biggest headache.

Naturally, we still do not know who Governor Barbour will appoint to replace Lott, nor when the special election will be held (i.e. whether Democrats will succeed in challenging Barbour's decision to hold it no earlier than November), so a lot will still happen in this race. But Mississippi is a very red state so that Democrats needed everything to break their way. They're off to a bad start.

Senate news: No more challenger in Tennessee, but there is Mississippi to compensate

• Tennessee Democrat drops out
  

Mike McWherter, the leading Democratic challenger for the Senate seat of Lamar Alexander, just withdrew from the race, explaining his move with family considerations. Democrats never had much hope for this race, though they were at least confident that McWhether would self-fund his candidacy given his personal wealth. I had ranked the seat 17th most vulnerable in my most recent rankings, but at least the Democrats had a candidate that would have been able to take advantage of a macaca-like moment by the incumbent.

So this is not major congressional news, but insofar as the DSCC prides itself of "expanding the map" and putting many seats in play, it ought to be mentioned that they have not gotten very far in Tennessee.

• Mississippi Update

News is obviously unfolding fast in Mississippi, and the consensus this Tuesday morning appears to be that Democrats would try and challenge Barbour in court if Lott resigns in 2007 and Barbour schedules the special election next November. Jim Hood, the current state Attorney General, is siding with the argument that a special election would be necessary within 100 days and is not ruling out legal action. This could turn into chaos pretty fast.

As for the candidates, the WaPo's Fix reports that Schumer has already spoken to Mike Moore, who released a statement in the evening: "As for me, I appreciate all the calls I have received from friends, colleagues, and supporters today encouraging me to run. I will make my decision soon." Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove had already said yesterday he was interested and would take a decision soon as well. The Fix also says the current AG Jim Hood will not run, further restricting the list of potential candidates on the Democratic side.

Two resignations and one retirement

• What will be the timing of Mississippi's special election?

In the aftermath of Trent Lott's completely unexpected resignation this morning, the controversy that has been rocking the state is when the special election should take place. Governor Barbour said today that the special election would be held in November 2008, along with the congressional and presidential elections -- this would allow Lott's replacement to build incumbency for 11 months, which should help Republicans keep the seat in the hands of the senator chosen by Barbour.

But the media soon started reporting that state law holds that a special election has to be called within 90 days of a resignation if it occurs in the year before normally scheduled elections! This would put the special election to fill Lott's seat some time in February or March, much less time for a new senator to build up incumbency. And remember: Lott will resign in 2007 because he wants to avoid the new lobbying rules that only come into effect for lawmakers leaving office "on or after" December 31st.

Yet, Barbour and the state GOP has no intention of giving in on the special election date... And they are basing their on a very subtle technicality. Check out the text of the law:

The election shall be held within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor's proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator.

In other words, if the resignation is the year of a statewide election, the special election shall not be within 90 days. Barbour's office is now arguing that, because there was a statewide election held in November 2007, Lott's resignation falls under this "exception category" and Barbour can "designate" the special election to be in November 2008. The Secretary of State (a Democrat) agreed with Barbour on the basis of what he himself called a "technicality."

This appears to respect neither the spirit of the law (designed to insure that a senator does not serve too long without facing voters) nor the text of the law. Consider the use of "the" in The governor "shall designate the general election day..." In other words, if the resignation falls the year of a statewide election, the governor has to call the special election on the day of that statewide election... which implies that the election has to be in the future and that November 2007's election in no way applies here! The state Democratic Party quickly issued a press release calling for Barbour to respect the law... and it will be interesting to see whether this goes to the courts.

• Timing issues also in IL-14

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert is officially resigning tonight. He has been postponing this for weeks to prevent Illinois Governor Blagojevich from setting the special election on February 5th (the day of the presidential primary which should have a huge Democratic turnout given the candidacy of Obama, the state's senator). Hastert is now betting that it is too late for Blagojevitch to set the general election for February 5th since he would then have to set the primary in mid-January, in less than 2 months.

That does appear to be too crampled a calendar, so Hastert seems to have gotten his wish: that the primary be scheduled on February 5th, and the general election some time late February or beginning of March. Hastert explicitly state this was his main consideration in choosing his resignation date: "“By selecting this specific time to resign, it allows Governor Blagojevich the opportunity to announce a special primary to select candidates for my unexpired term on February 5, 2008." Democrats are likely to be unhappy about this, but at least Hastert did not break any laws in the process.

Three of the four main candidates for the seat -- Republicans Jim Oberweis and Chris Lauzen, Democrat Bill Foster -- have already each donated more than $300,000 of their own money to themselves, leaving 2006 Democratic nominee John Laesch as the only non self-funding candidate. Republicans have a significant edge in this district that trends red traditionally, especially now that Democrats will be deprived of the February 5th boost.

• Carlson bows out

The third congressional story of the day is tragic news from Indiana, where Democratic Rep. Julia Carson announced over the week-end that she has terminal lung cancer; Carson had suffered from other illnesses over the past few months and years, and had not cast a vote in the House since mid-September. Carson will finish her term until next November, and will then not run for re-election -- so this seat will be open. Republicans were already preparing to challenge this seat before this tragic news broke out with state Senator Jon Elrod, but the district is fundamentally blue (Kerry won with 57%).

Shocker in the Senate: Trent Lott resigns, opens new competitive seat

Some huge news this morning pretty much as soon as Thanksgiving week-end was over: Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi is set to announce his resignation! Lott just got re-elected last year after flirting with the possibility of retiring. He ended up running again, frustrating all those who have been looking to move up Mississippi politics for quite some time now.

So why has Lott suddenly decided to call it quits? He wants to move on to the private sector and become a lobbyist, but doing it now allows him to avoid the restrictions of the lobbying law Democrats passed in the spring and that is going in effect at the end of the year. One of the restrictions it that lawmakers have to wait two years after leaving office to become lobbyists, so Lott can bypass that rule and go in the private sector much faster by resigning now. All in all, a rather shocking reason for an elected official to give up his democratic duties.

Now, Republican Governor Barbour (who was just re-elected a month ago) will appoint Lott's replacement; a special election will be organized in November 2008 to fill the rest of Lott's term up to 2012. The first question is whether Barbour will appoint a caretaker (someone who will not run in 2008) or a Republican who wants to be a full-time Senator. The most likely is certainly the latter, but if the state GOP seems to divided Barbour might have no choice but to let a primary take place and appoint a caretaker until then.

If Barbour goes for a Republican who wants to run again, the most likely replacement would be Rep. Pickering, who was long considered Lott and Cochran's heir. Pickering, seemingly frustrated that neither senator had retired, announced his retirement from the House over the summer - could he be convinced to come back? But there is a very deep Republican bench in the state, so Barbour will likely have to deal with other contenders... and we can't exclude a competitive primary in the spring no matter what Barbour does today.

Democrats are likely to pressure former state Attorney General Mike Moore and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. With either of them, this immediately becomes a competitive seat: Democrats might be completely out for presidential elections in the state, but they have a good bench for statewide races.

The last thing the Republicans wanted is another safe seat to become competitive, for they are already pressed on money and do not have enough time to look at all the difficult contests. Democrats have been expanding the map, and that alone is giving them a huge advantage -- and Lott's decision today helps them create an unmanageable situation for the NRSC. At least, the GOP can be relieved that they will not have to defend an open seat here -- both Moore and Musgrove would have had a much higher chance in that case; now they will probably have to face an incumbent.

Update: The Washington Post's Fix is reporting that Barbour will probably not go for Pickering, making Rep. Roger Wicker the most likely replacement. He also confirms that Mike Moore appears very interested in making a run here.