Week-end polls: Democrats up big in NYT poll; are Sens. Dole and Cornyn vulnerable?

After a quite Sunday in which I chose to only reflect on the victory of Don Cazayoux, it is time to delve right back in the Democratic primaries; after all, polls in Indiana and North Carolina open in 24 hours. We are likely to receive a deluge of polls from the May 6th states today, so let me get Sunday's polls out of the way before the political day starts, starting with Zogby's latest round of tracking polls:

• Zogby continues to find the two upcoming primaries to be remarkably stable. In North Carolina, Obama is now ahead by 8%, 48% to 40% -- a one percent tightening in the past 24 hours.

• In Indiana, Zogby has Obama narrowly ahead once again, 44% to 42%. Zogby is the only institute to find Clinton trailing at this point.
  
• Clinton only leads 46% to 39% among white voters with 15% undecided; her margin among white voters in other polls is much larger, suggesting that a significant portion of these undecided voters could be a reservoir of votes for her. Whether they go to the polls as they did in Pennsylvania or stay at home will determine Tuesday's results.

Clinton is managing to hold on to a single-digit margin in North Carolina -- a gap that is confirmed by most other polls that have been released over the past week; that would do her no good, however, if she cannot prevail in Indiana. Keep in mind that most of the latest polls we have seen from both of these states were taken during or in the immediate aftermath of Wright's second round of appearances and of Obama's denouncing his former pastor. Whether these events are continuing to impact voters or whether they have already faded will determine whether last week's polls (which were moving towards Clinton) will remain relevant today and tomorrow. If they do not, Clinton could be in trouble as expectations have shifted due to last week's good polling results. For now, the only indication we have is that Obama has retaken the lead he had lost on April 27th in Gallup's tracking poll.

Meanwhile, New York Times/CBS released its second poll in two weeks and found both Democrats expanding their general election lead to stunning margins:

• Obama leads McCain 52% to 41% while Clinton is ahead 53% to 41%.
  

• 60% of all voters and 68% of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Obama handled the Wright situation; 9% of Democrats said that Wright would "matter a great deal" to them should Obama become the nominee.

While Democrats are more used to leading than trailing over the past few months, such a comfortable margin is certainly not in line with the conventional wisdom -- nor is it confirmed by other polls taken in the past few weeks. Democrats will understandably take the survey as a morale booster but until other polls suggest that the Democratic nominee has emerged with a clear edge keep in mind rules about margins of error and statistical variations.

Finally, three very interesting Senate polls to reoprt this morning:

• First, SUSA polled the Minnesota Senate race and found Norm Coleman maintaining a double-digit lead against Al Franken, 52% to 42%.
  

• Second, a Research 2000 poll in North Carolina finds Elizabeth Dole struggling to open a lead against both her Democratic rivals; she is ahead 48% to 41% against Kay Hagan and 47% to 37% against Jim Neal. The Democratic primary is Tuesday.

• Third, Rasmussen published a stunning survey of the Texas Senate race, finding Senator John Cornyn leading his challenger Rick Noriega 47% to 43% only.
  

After a series of poll in mid-February showed a toss-up race in Minnesota, Rasmussen and SUSA have recently found Coleman to be back in a comfortable lead over the past two months. This is paradoxically also the time in which Franken pretty much secured his party's nomination. Note that there are some weird crosstabs in this poll: Coleman gets 99% of the GOP vote (which seems an unlikely proposition) and Franken gets 67% of the Demoratic vote, leaving him far behind despite a 24% lead among independents.

It is surprising to see Elizabeth Dole kept under 50% and in single-digits while Coleman enjoys a double-digit margin in a high-profile race against a well-funded opponent. Polls have disagreed on how vulnerable Dole is to a challenge this fall but Democrats have to be frustrated that they did not do a better recruitment operation here, as all the candidates that could have made the race really competitive declined to run. We shall know more about what to expect from this race once Democrats select their nominee tomorrow.

As for Texas, the Cornyn-Noriega race is considered a sleeper by Democratic activists but even they would recognize that it is at best a second tier race right now. There is little confirmation besides this poll that the incumbent is this vulnerable (more than Coleman and Dole, according to this wave of poll); previous surveys have found Cornyn leading by double-digits without beign able to open up a commanding lead. If Democrats manage to just make one of either North Carolina or Texas competitive, it would already be a huge and unexpected accomplishment.