Non-Senate down-ballot: Who will beat Don Young first?

In my most recent House ratings, I described the disastrous state of the New York Republican Party and its inability to truly contest the three seats Democrats picked up in 2006 and that were supposed to be at the top of the Republican wish-list. I confess that I had not paid enough attention to NY-20, where the GOP believes it has found a strong candidate to take on Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in a district Bush won by 8% in 2004. They are running former state Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell who has the advantage of being very wealthy and thus having the means to self-fund his candidacy.

Gillibrand is one of the House's best fund-raisers (perhaps even the freshman Democrat who has raised the most) and thus Treadwell's wealth will not allow him to swamp her with his spending, but it will come in handy to keep tabs on her own spending and keep the race competitive. In fact, Treadwell is already running ads, months before his party's primary. This is early for a House challenger to go up on air, and Treadwell is clearly intending to send the message that he ought to be taken seriously and that he will have the resources necessary to compete -- whether or not the NRCC has any funds left to come to his rescue.

Also today, we got three House polls about two districts:

• In AK-AL, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz beats incumbent Don Young 58% to 38%! But Young also trails in his party's primary against Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell, 37% to 34%. In a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up, the Republican leads 43% to 38%.
  

• In KY-03, a SUSA poll shows that Rep. Yarmuth trounces former GOP Rep. Northup (whom he narrowly defeated in 2006) 57% to 40%!
  

• In response, the Northup campaign released an internal poll also taken early June that shows the Democrat leading 51% to 43%.

It looks certain that Young will no longer represent Alaska come January 2009. The only question seems to be who will beat him first? If Republicans keep him as their candidate, Democrats will surely capture the seat. There have been other polls that have shown Young trailing Berkowitz by double-digits. But if Parnell, backed by the Club for Growth, manages to become his party's nominee, he will have transformed this lean takeover seat into a much better deal for Republicans. It is rare for the Club for Growth to be in a position to help the party by toppling an incumbent (remember PA-Sen in 2004 and RI-Sen in 2006), and it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

Yet, it does look like Alaska voters have gone sour on the GOP generally, as the latest Senate poll shows Stevens struggling and we have seen a few surveys with Obama surprisingly close to John McCain. Don't forget that the corruption scandal that is sinking Young and Stevens has also endangered many other Anchorage GOP lawmakers and, while Parnell is not associated to the investigation, there were plenty of examples in 2006 of "cleaner" Republicans being tarnished by the mere association with the corrupt incumbent (see OH-18, for instance).

As for KY-03, there is a reason the Northup campaign did not release its internal poll until SUSA found even worse numbers. Republicans believe that Yarmuth's victory in 2006 was an accident, despite the fact that this is the only Kentucky district to have voted for John Kerry over George Bush. Northup's decision to run for her old seat was seen as a major victory for Republicans, as the moderate former representative has the name recognition and profile necessary to take back this district. Yet, the fact that she cannot hold Yarmuth under 50% despite the fact that her own name recognition is probably as good (if not better) than her rivals has to be worrisome for her campaign.

Finally, two gubernatorial polls bring good news for both parties:

• In Missouri, Rasmussen finds that Democratic Attorney General is increasing his lead over his two Republican opponents, leading Rep. Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman by 20% and 22% respectively.
  

• In Indiana, however, Republican Governor Daniels has opened a 51% to 35% lead over Jill Long Thompson according an Indiana Legislative Insight poll.

Both seats are currently held by Republicans, and both are heavily contested. This is in fact the first poll released since Long Thompson won the Democratic primary (by the thinnest of margins) and it contradict the previous surveys that found a toss-up race with the incumbent greatly endangered. We will have to see other surveys to know whether this one can be classified as an outlier or whether the election is swinging towards Daniels.

As for Missouri, it is not surprising to see Nixon ahead. After all, the Democrat is well-known statewide and who has been campaigning for this position since 2004. But the huge margin by which he is now leading in numerous polls testifies to Missouri's swing towards the Democratic Party and is reminiscent of other unexpectedly easy wins that Democrats enjoyed in open seat races in 2006 (Minnesota's senatorial race between Klochubar and Kennedy and Colorado's gubernatorial race). Nixon's increasingly comfortable lead is a very good sign for Barack Obama's chances in the Show Me State.

Senate: OR and KY pick their nominees, Dem leads in MS

The week's biggest political news continues to be Ted Kennedy's health condition, as the longtime Massachusetts Senator was released from the hospital today in seemingly excellent condition. It is still difficult to talk about the political consequences of these developments as we know too little about Kennedy's condition and his plans.

Meanwhile, the Oregon and Kentucky Senate races were set last night as two contested primaries were settled. In Oregon, state House speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly bested Steve Novick who ran a surprisingly strong campaign and ended up 4 percent short of victory. The DSCC thus got its wish, though there were few indications that Merkley would be a particularly stronger candidate against GOP incumbent Gordon Smith. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Smith besting Merkley by only 3 percent, though that by far the best poll Merkley has seen.

The DSCC's choice also won in Kentucky, as Bruce Lunsford handily beat businessman Greg Fisher. Lunsford, who lost the 2007 gubernatorial primary, will now face a Senate giant, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Senator looked to be very vulnerable in the fall but a series of recruitment failures by Democrats made his a much safer bet. Lunsford should not be able to do much more than take advantage of the toxic environment for the GOP; even if elected, he would be a very conservative Democrat. He endorsed Republican Ernie Fletcher in 2003's gubernatorial race after he did not get the Democratic primary, and has donated to McConnell's senatorial campaign.

Meanwhile, two new polls from Senate races that were supposed to be second-tier at best are bringing good news for Democrats:

• In North Carolina, it is SUSA's turn to confirm that Elizabeth Dole is in very real danger. She leads state Senator Kay Hagan 50% to 46%, a very narrow margin for an incumbent facing a little-known opponent. This is a contest in which Obama boosting black turnout could have a very real effect down-the-ballot. One area Hagan will have to work on: independents prefer Dole by 16%.

• In Mississippi, an internal poll released by the DSCC shows former Governor Ronnie Musgrove leading Republican incumbent Roger Wicker 48% to 40%. Like every partisan poll, this has to be taken with a grain of salt but it does paint a worrisome picture for the GOP. Musgrove is well-known and well-liked (his favorability rating is 57% to 30%) while Wicker is still mostly unknown 5 months after his appointment to fill Trent Lott's seat. That does mean that he has room to grow in the coming months.

• Update: Rasmussen released a new poll from Colorado, showing Udall slightly expanding his lead against Schaffer. He is now ahead 47% to 41%. Given how tough the past month has been for Schaffer, it is a disappointment for Dems that they are not further ahead and a relief for the GOP that all is not lost.
  

Both North Carolina and Mississippi have Democrats licking their lips at the extent to which they are expanding the map this cycle. It is numbers like this that make a 60-seat majority not as utopian a dream as was thought just a few weeks ago. The numbers in Mississippi are particularly interesting as they confirm a prior poll taken in late 2007 that showed Musgrove in the lead. Remember that Democrats were trying to force a special election in March, before Wicker had time to develop an incumbency advantage. A lower court judge ruled in their favor but the state Supreme Court overturned that decision. This poll suggests that Musgrove could be Senator now if Democrats had gotten their wish, but the road could get tougher in the months ahead as Wicker improves his name recognition and the GOP advantage of a presidential year kicks in.

In other down-the-ballot but non-Senate news, here are two polls from 2 of the only 4 contested gubernatorial races, both released by SUSA:

• In what is shaping to be an unexpectedly tight race, Beverly Perdue has a small lead over Republican Pat MacCrory, 52% to 45%. Both won a contested primary on May 6th. A Rasmussen poll released last week showed MacCrory besting Perdue.

• In Missouri, however, it will be very difficult for the GOP to even keep the race competitive as they are running against Jay Nixon who has been preparing for this race for years. He is trouncing the two Republican candidates running for this open seat, by 25% and 26%.
  

The primary victory of Charlotte Mayor MacCrory means that the North Carolina gubernatorial race is the GOP's best pick-up chance among all the Senate and governor's contests. That the race remains a toss-up speaks to the Republicans' disadvantage this cycle.

Friday polls: Obama suffers WV blues, Cornyn struggles again

3 days after North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton is showing no sign of withdrawing from the race; no matter how low her chances to get the nomination (and Rasmussen has just announced that he will soon cease his tracking poll of the Democratic nomination race!), this means that we should pay attention to the upcoming primaries again. If Obama performs disastrously, it would put him on the defensive again in the final weeks of May, perhaps buying Clinton the time she needs to continue to June 3rd and embarrass the Illinois Senator.

This applies to Kentucky, of course, but also to West Virginia which votes in 4 days:

• A new ARG poll shows Clinton leading 66% to 23%. Obama fails to get 20% among white voters.
• An Orion Strategies poll with too large a margin an error finds a similar margin, with Clinton leading 63% to 23%.

We have long known that Obama's worst region was the Appalachians, as he lost by similar voting margins in the counties of Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina that border Kentucky and West Virginia; given the demographic determination of these elections, it doesn't appear there is much Obama will be able to do to avoid this large a defeat (to put things in perspective, only Arkansas has voted for Clinton by a bigger margin).

Meanwhile, we got a series of general election polls in the past two days. Keep those numbers in mind for they will serve to determine whether Obama gets a bump from his being proclaimed the presumptive nominee in the coming days and weeks:

• In Rasmussen's tracking, Obama leads McCain 47% to 44% (the first time he has led for consecutive days for two months) and Clinton leads 48% to 43%. In Gallup, Obama leads McCain by 1% and Clinton leads by 2%.

• UPDATE: How frustrating must today's Gallup numbers be for Hillary Clinton. Not only does Obama fail to pull away despite this being the third day after NC and IN, but Clinton has suddenly jumped up to a 48% to 44% lead against McCain (which I believe might be her biggest lead ever in Gallup tracking) while Obama leads 46% to 45%.
  

• A Rasmussen poll in Missouri, however, has McCain leading both Democrats. He has a 48% to 41% lead against Obama and 45% to 43% against Clinton. Last month, he led Obama by 12% and Clinton by 9% so this is actually quite an improvement for Democrats. Obama's favorability rating is only at 46% -- equal to Clinton's and much lower than McCain's.

• In Georgia, Rasmussen finds McCain comfortably leading both Democrats, 53% to 39% against Obama and 48% to 37% against Clinton.

• In Rasmussen's Wisconsin poll, McCain leads yet again -- this time in a blue state -- beating both Democrats 47% to 43%. This is a big boost for Clinton who led by 11% at the end of March. Obama's favorability rating -- at 51% -- is lower than McCain's (58%). Note that McCain's "very favorable" rating is much lower (only 14%), suggesting that his support is soft.

• A Research 2000 poll from Texas, meanwhile, does not confirm how tight Rasmussen had found the race last week (both Democrats within single-digits) but the race is not as much of a blowout as in past cycles: McCain leads Obama 52% to 39% and Clinton 53% to 38%.

• Finally, Hotline published its latest national poll and finds Clinton leading McCain 46% to 43% and Obama ahead 47% to 43%. McCain leads both Democrats by double-digits among independents, a troubling sign, but both Democrats have markedly improved their showing since the end of March when they both trailed. Proving how much McCain overperforms, Democrats lead the generic presidential ballot by 14% (15% among independens).
  

Democrats were used to leading Republican candidates in a whole list of red states back in 2007... until John McCain became the nominee. Trailing in both Wisconsin and Missouri is not a good place to start for Democrats considering they are supposed to be the heavy favorites to win this year's election. The question then is how these numbers will evolve in the coming weeks. Will Obama's becoming the presumptive nominee and the media's round of celebration boost his numbers, in a traditional post-victory popularity boost? Will Clinton's staying in the race blunt the impact of that?

Finally, a few very interesting down-the-ballot polls:

• Research 2000 polled the Texas Senate race and found a 47% to 43% lead for Senator Cornyn versus state Senator Noriega. Back in September, Cornyn was leading by 16%.
• This is the same margin of a Rasmussen poll released a few days ago.
  

• Meanwhile, Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon is opening a large lead against both his Republican rivals for the open gubernatorial race. He is leading state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and congressman Kenny Hulshof 51% to 35%.
  

Both of these polls are great news for Democrats. Missouri is the most vulnerable gubernatorial seat and Nixon has basically been running since 2004. Governor Blunt's surprise retirement actually gave the GOP a bit more hope but it looks like Nixon could put this away quickly. As for Texas, the fact that two polls within one week show this tight a race is truly shocking and suggests that we were wrong to completely overlook this state in assessments of this year's Senate picture. Noriega always had the potential to make the race competitive but TX-Sen was a second-to-third tier race at best: Too big and conservative a state, too well-funded an incumbent, not a well-known enough challenger. We shall know in the coming weeks if the DSCC can count on expanding the map to the Lone Star State.

Governor rankings: Top four races get more interesting

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those 5 races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

The retirement of Gov. Blunt in Missouri, the heated Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the candidacy of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, and Dino Rossi's attempts to rouse passions in Washington all guarantee that these 4 states will remain competitive to November and keep things interesting on the gubernatorial front. And since both parties control 2 of these 4 most contested governorships, Republicans can at least be relieved that things look more even-handed here than in the Senate and the House.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in December, are available here.

Toss-up (2 R, 1 D)

1. Missouri (Open)

Missouri's gubernatorial race made a lot of news comparatively to other gubernatorial races. The showdown between Republican Gov. Blunt and Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon had started as early as 2004, and the incumbent's growing unpopularity had given the early lead to Nixon. But Blunt unexpectedly announced his retirement in late January.

Republicans hurried to find a nominee and they will now have to decide between two strong candidates, congressman Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Either would keep the race competitive but Nixon undoubtedly has a head start given that he has been preparing his campaign for so long -- and that the state's voters have turned sour on their Republican administration.

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous ranking: 4)

Republican at the federal level, North Carolina remains blue at the state level, and Democrats looked favored to keep the governor's mansion next year with two strong candidates -- Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- battling for the Democratic nomination. But two factors have made the race more competitive.

(1) The Democratic primary is staying very competitive and now going negative, with Moore needing to shake up the race to contest Perdue's early edge. (2) Republicans got a potentially very competitive candidate in the race with with the entry of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Polls show McCrory in toss-ups against both Perdue and Moore, with the Democrats holding the slightest of edges.

The GOP primary is also contested, however, and it remains unclear who will emerge to claim the party's nod. We will now more about the state of play in North Carolina after the May 6th primary.

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous ranking: 2)

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is certainly unpopular and vulnerable, but it is difficult to precisely assess the general election before Democrats settle their nomination race on May 6th. Architect Jim Schellinger has been the establishment's favored candidate and has far outraised his opposition, but former Rep. Jill Long Thompson could emerge the winner due to higher name recognition. The Indianapolis Star reports that Schellinger's campaign has been a disappointment while Thompson has been very active and that his fundraising edge could be drowned amidst the presidential race if Clinton and Obama spend millions in ads here in the next few weeks.

Lean Retention (2 D)

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous ranking: 3)

The 2004 campaign never really stopped in Washington, where Republican Dino Rossi lost by 129 votes on the third count after leading the first two ballot counts. Christine Gregoire started off a controversial term and has done her best to overcome the partisan rancor of her first election. Rossi announced his second gubernatorial candidacy in late 2007, and he has been campaigning hard since then, hoping to rouse the passions of 2004, bringing up the recount on the trail to undermine the legitimacy of Gregoire's incumbency. This race will be tight (and bitter) to the end but Gregoire has been able to somewhat regain her footing over the past few years and built some good will which give her a slight edge to start with.

Check the full rankings with all 11 races here.

Down-the ballot polls have good news for Democrats

Forgive me for two poll-related entries in a row, but interesting surveys were released this evening from down-the-ballot races. First, a poll from Minnesota's Senate poll released by SUSA. It shows Sen. Norm Coleman and Al Franken in a toss-up, with Coleman edging out the former comedian 47% to 46%. Coleman leads Democrat Mike Ciresi by a wider margin, 51% to 40%.

This is first and foremost excellent news for Franken. Most polls until recently had Ciresi and Franken running at the same level against Coleman, but this is the second poll in a row that has Franken running significantly better. The designation of the nominee in MN is largely an insider's game, so Franken will be able to make great use of the electability argument.

It also confirms that the DSCC has managed to make Minnesota into a top-tier race, something neither Oregon nor Maine -- races that were until recently mentioned in the same breath as Coleman's. This alone will guarantee that the DSCC invests heavily here, and hope that the Democratic nominee is boosted by presidential coattails (note that Dems have not had many close Senate races fought on blue states over the past few cycles).

Second, we get a Missouri Governor's poll from Rasmussen. Gov. Blunt unexpectedly announced he was not running for re-election last month, starting a scramble among state Republicans. Democrats had a candidate running for years already, Attorney General Nixon. And Rasmussen shows him leading big in what is now an open race, 46% to 35% against state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and 48% to 30% against Rep. Kenny Hulshof who recently announced she would leave her House seat and run for the governor's mansion.

Missouri is one of the only competitive governor's races in 2008 (with Indiana and North Carolina), but the first poll that tests someone else than Blunt suggests that Nixon has the clear upper-hand. The fact that a Democrat has such a large lead in an open race also suggests that the state might be looking to move towards Democrats, good news for them in the presidential race as well.

House GOP loses three more members, and Kentucky filing deadline marked by last-minute chaos

It seems blasphemous to cover anything but the presidential races right now given the high drama of both the Democratic and Republican races right now (though the GOP contest will be much less exciting from now on), but it's hard to ignore that still more Republican-held House seats have opend up since Monday.

VA-11: I first reported on rumors of Tom Davis's imminent retirement on Monday, and it is now being confirmed. VA-11 shoots up to the very top of Democratic opportunities, and Leslie Byrne, the Democratic candidate, carried the district handily in her statewide campaign for Lieutenant governship in 2005. Check the analysis of VA-11 I wrote on Monday.

MO-Gov and MO-09: Governor Blunt's unexpected retirement last week prompted Republican confusion, and there has been a lot of jockeying around among the state GOP. With statewide officials already in the race, all eyes were on the state's representatives. Would any of them seek to win the Governor's mansion and leave their seat open? On Monday, Kenny Hulshof from MO-09 announced she was jumping in the gubernatorial race. That gives Republicans a strong candidate to take on Democratic Attorney General Nixon for governor, but it means one more House seat to defend. Fortunately for the GOP, MO-09 leans Republican, so it does not represent a gigantic headache for Republicans; but it is definitely the type of district Democrats had some success in at the last midterms.

Chaos in KY-02: As if Rep. Ron Lewis's retirement was not shocking enough, but the manner in which he did it is just stunning. The filling deadline in Kentucky was expiring yesterday at 4pm, and Ron Lewis had let out no sign that he was planning on retiring. Minutes before the deadline, the wife of his chief of staff Daniel London went to the SOS office to withdraw Lewis's name and file papers for London instead! Lewis's ploy to get his chief of staff nominated failed as state Sen. Brett Guthrie had somehow heard of the possibility of this happening and was also waiting at the SOS's office. Guthrie immediately filed his own candidacy papers, setting up a Guthrie v. London primary. (Read the detailed wrap-up of this ridiculous ploy over at CQPolitics).

In any case, KY-02 is now an open seat. And Democrats have a strong candidate in the race, state Senator David Boswell, who had filed thinking he would compete against Lewis. (Democrats must be very relieved they made sure to file a candidate here). KY-02 is a strongly Republican district. Bush prevailed here with about 65% of the vote, though Lewis only got 55% in 2006 in an under-the-radar race that the underfunded Democrat kept surprisingly close. Republicans are favored, but it is unclear at this point how strong Brett Guthrie might be in the general election, so we will have to keep a close watch on this race.

KY-03: Republicans got some good news in another Kentucky race, as former Rep. Northup jumped in the 3rd district race against John Yarmuth, who defeated her in 2006. This had also been rumored for the past week or two, but Northup's intentions had not been fully confirmed. KY-03 is a good district for Democrats, and Yarmuth will likely keep it for a few cycles if he manages to beat the well-known Northup next year. It is worth noting that Northup lost the GOP's gubernatorial primary last year against incumbent Fletcher, though the moderate credential that did her in in that primary are likely to play well in the KY-03 general election.

KY-Sen: Kentucky's Senate contest was the hottest race this November, where the DSCC was pushing hard to get Treasurer Luallen or AG Stumbo to jump in the race. Both announced they would not run since then, and now that the filing deadline passed the field is set. The Democrats filed attorney Andrew Horne, businessman Greg Fisher and a last-minute addendum is Bruce Lunsford who lost the gubernatorial primary in 2007 to now-Governor Beshear. Lunsford is a centrist Democrat who is distrusted by his party's activists, so it is unclear what the dynamics of this primary will be. There is no question that the field is much weaker than it could have been, and that the DSCC did not do well at recruiting here.

Down-the-ballot diary: Gov. Blunt unexpectedly retires, FL-21 gets competitive

Surprising news out of Missouri, where Republican Governor Matt Blunt, 37, has announced that he will not be seeking re-election next year. Blunt was serving his first-term as governor after a tight election in 2004, and he was preparing for another very tight battle against Attorney General Jay Nixon, who basically started running 3 years ago.

Blunt had already raised millions of dollars but he was plagued by low approval ratings and he trailed in most polls against Nixon. So it is unclear whether an open seat here is bad news for Republican. They have a fairly good bench in the state -- representatives and statewide officials -- and any one of them could mount a strong run against Nixon, potentially stronger than Blunt would have been able to. That said, surveys from Missouri all year have shown that the state is looking to move to the blue column as Democrats are being more competitive than usual; Nixon has won plenty of statewide elections himself and he has been running for a while now, so this should stay a very competitive race.

Given that there are almost no competitive governor's seats, most people will remain focused on this race (as well as North Carolina's which is much more competitive than expected with the entrance of Charlotte's GOP Mayor).

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Gordon Smith is continuing his efforts to appear bi-partisan and moderate in preparation for his re-election battle next year. After it became clear that Smith had a target on his back, he quickly embarked on this strategy, distancing himself from his party on the war. More recently, he introduced a bill to extend domestic partnerships to federal employees. Today, Smith has sent a letter to President Bush along with 7 Democratic Senators and no other Republican. The letter only asks the president to launch in investigation into Bhutto's death, but it is a rather transparent attempt at bi-partsanship, and one that is likely to start paying dividends. Smith is not particularly unpopular and the Democrats have not recruited a top-tier challenger against him. If Smith manages to distance himself from the R next to his name, it's going to be hard for the DSCC to make him vulnerable.

Finally, some House news from FL-21, where Democrat Raul Martinez, former mayor of Hialeah, is entering the race against GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart in a Miami-area district that leans Republican. Martinez is a very well-known figure. It is worth noting that the DCCC is also looking to challenge other Republican Reps representing the Miami region, so this area could become the hottest battleground of the 2008 elections.

Diaz-Balart and Martinez will go all-out for the Cuban vote. They are already exchanging jabs as to who is tougher on Castro. Here's from the Miami Herald article I linked to above: "Díaz-Balart has told The Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald that Martinez's return is part of a ploy by Fidel Castro sympathizers to lift or weaken the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba." Another big topic in the campaign will likely be Martinez's 1990 indictment for extortion and racketeering. Martinez claims the charges were politically motivated and still has strong support among the state's Democratic Party but he remains a controversial figure.

Yet more polls, as SUSA just keeps it coming

Today is poll-heavy, and my postings are reflecting that. Survey USA just keeps the polls coming today. It released surveys from Iowa and Minnesota this morning, and it now continued with Ohio, Missouri and Wisconsin, all crucial swing states in any presidential race.

First up, Ohio, arguably the most important of purple states.

• Hillary Clinton demolishes her opponents, leading Giuliani 49% to 40%, Romney 51% to 40%, Huckabee 51% to 39%. But she ties McCain at 45%.
• Obama, however, runs poorly: He trails Giuliani 46% to 40% and McCain 47% to 38%. And barely musters a one point lead against Romney and Huckabee (43-42).

As always, it's important not to put to much in electability comparisons in the Democratic field, given that numbers are rarely consistent -- though McCain is almost always by far the strongest Republican. These numbers suggest that the state will likely be as tight as it was in 2008, especially when combined with this morning's Rasmussen Ohio poll which had a complete toss-up.

Next comes Wisconsin, one of the tightest races in both 2000 and 2004. And it leans slightly Democratic:

• Clinton beats Giuliani 45-42, Romney 47-42, Huckabee 49-40, but she is crushed by McCain 49-42.
• Obama does better, besting Giuliani 48-40, and McCain 46-44. He crushes Romney 53-35 and Huckabee 52-36.

At this point, we really have to admire not that McCain runs best among GOPers, but just how much better he runs. And with that we are off to Missouri, where SUSA confirms Rasmussen's numbers from today:

• Clinton is ahead of Rudy 49-43. She also leads McCain 50-46, Romney 51-41, but the race is tight against Huck 49-47.
• Obama actually trails Huckabee 47-45, though he wins his three other match-ups. 47-42 against Giuliani, 49-39 against Romney and 47-44 against McCain.

Surprisingly, Huckabee runs better than any other Republican here. Is that a reflection on his own popularity? Or, more likely given that he has low name recognition, are the other candidates just weighted down by their own unpopularity?

Also, Missouri does look to be one of the most promising 2004 red states for Democrats, as it is leaning in favor of Clinton and Obama pretty consistently at this point. With its 11 electoral votes, Missouri is clearly a major player, and it could very well tip the balance. While all eyes are on Ohio and Florida, Missouri could emerge as a key battleground.

• Down-the-ballot: NC-Sen and MO-GOV
  

Meanwhile, we also got some surveys form senatorial and gubernatorial races. In North Carolina, PPP contained senatorial numbers:

• In the Senate race, State Senator Kay Hagan trails Elizabeth Dole 51% to 39%. Banker Jim Neal is behind 52% to 37%.

Elizabeth Dole is clearly starting off favored, and she is above 50%; but leading unknown challengers by such margins will not reassure Republicans that she is safe, and Democrats might soon regret not having fielded a stronger candidate.

And in Missouri, we get confirmation that Governor Blunt is trailing Attorney General Nixon in his re-election race, 47% to 42%. Most polls are showing a tight race here with Nixon slightly ahead -- which explains why the race is ranked first in our latest Governor Rankings.

Evening polls: Obama takes the lead in Iowa!

The news of the night: A new Washington Post poll has Barack Obama in the lead for the first time in quite a while in the Iowa caucuses. It is all within the margin of error, but it breaks the remarkable consistency of polls showing Hillary Clinton slightly ahead... and it is sure to change a lot of the narrative of the race in the coming days:

• Obama gets 30% to Clinton's 26% and Edwards 22%. Richardson stays in double-digits, at 11%.
• The internal numbers are pretty bad for the New York Senator: First off, 50% of her supporters say they have never attended the caucuses, against 43% for Obama, which goes against the conventional wisdom that his backers are the least likely to show up at the polls. And the key statistic for Edwards: Only 24% of his supporters would be first-time caucus-goers, which confirms his support is among the core base... which is great news for him and keeps him in the running for the win.
• And in what is perhaps the worst news of the poll for Hillary: When asked to choose Obama, Clinton or Edwards, voters who choose someone else first go for Obama at 34%, Edwards at 28% and Clinton at 15%. Now this will happen on caucus night, as caucus-goers will only be allowed to caucus for candidates who are getting 15% of support at their caucus-place. So if these numbers are correct, Clinton could very well be destroyed and sink to third place.
• What explains this shift? The poll finds that only 15% say Clinton is the most honest candidate, versus 31% for Obama and 20% for Edwards. Similary, 76% and 73% say that Obama and Edwards speak their mind, versus only 50% for Clinton. The constant attacks against the front-runner are starting to stick in Iowa.

This is great news for Obama whose campaign is frustrated after last week's debate. They need to win Iowa, they know it, and the Clinton campaign knows it too. Most of the action in December will happen here... and numbers could change dramatically. And remember that gap can be created fast, especially if a candidate has a big share of second choice support as Obama seems to have. Clinton would likely be very hurt by a third-place finish, though it remains to be seen how much she would slip in later states if she came in second here. It would probably depend on how far behind she is, so she really has to minimize losses here.

Some good news, however, for the Clinton campaign out of a national Harris poll that has Clinton breaking 50% again, which she had not done for a while. She has 52% here. But Obama is also unusually high, polling at 29%. Edwards is left further behind than usual, at 11%. But this should at least reassure the Clinton campaign that her rivals will have a lot of catching up to do even if they win Iowa.

• Romney expands New Hampshire lead

Meanwhile, no such slip-ups for Romeny. Quite the contrary, as a new New Hampshire poll has him significantly expanding his lead, now ahead 33% to McCain's 18%, Giuliani's 16%. Ron Paul confirms his good form with 8%, while Thompson collapses into a humiliating (and probably fatal) 4%, behind even Huckabee's 5%.

This is great for Romney, who needs to show his nomination is inevitable with a IA-NH dual win. But McCain needs to make a move fast. He probably cannot content himself with a second-place showing here, unless it is very strong. He needs a win, or he will likely be left out, for where else could he strike? But Giuliani needs a second-place here for his "surviving January strategy to work," so look for Giuliani to take McCain down just as McCain needs to rise... which should all help Romney.

• Democrats still competitive in Virginia

The first poll that had Democrats leading in Virginia was deemed by all a probable outlier, until poll after poll showed Clinton and other Democrats competitive. And today's new SUSA poll is no exception -- only John McCain manages to put the state away for his party, though Rudy Giuliani at least manages to tie Clinton this time:

• John McCain beats Clinton 51% to 42% and Obama 51% to 41%. Giuliani narrowly leads Obama 47% to 43% but ties Clinton at 45%.
• The two Democrats comfortably lead Romney (48-41 for both) and , and Huckabee (50-40 for Clinton and 50-38 for Obama).

Put this together with yesterday's poll from Missouri and the GOP will have a lot of defending to do on its home turf.

• Gov. Blunt on his way out?

And one down-the-ballot poll to conclude. With LA and KY's gubernatorial elections resolved, the most vulnerable governship now is Missouri's, rated a toss-up in the latest governor rankings. And a poll released yesterday by Research 2000 shows just how vulnerable Governor Blunt is, as he trails Attorney General Nixon (who pretty much started campaigning in 2004) 51% to 42%. Blunt has bad favorables (43-53, compared to Nixon's 47-41). Nixon's advantage comes from independents, who break his way 59-32.