Monday polls: Obama weakens in some polls, Coleman up in MN

http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifA day after a wave of general election polls highlighted McCain's improving position, the new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that the Democrats are retaining a slight lead:

• Clinton beats McCain 51% to 46%, while Obama is on top 49% to 47%.
• This is an improvement for Democrats, as they both trailed McCain in Gallup's previous poll released at the end of February.
  

Noticeable in this poll is also that Clinton is running slightly ahead of Obama, which confirms that the two candidates electability showing is starting to be balanced and inconsistent again as it used to be after a few weeks in which Obama was running way ahead. And this could coincidence to a general weakening of Obama's position over the past few days, perhaps as a result of the negative attention he attracted with the controversy over Wright:

• Gallup's tracking poll shows Clinton taking a statistically insignificant, 47% to 45%. What is not insignificant is that this is the first time in 9 days (since the days following Hillary's March 4th come back) that Obama is ahead.
  

• Rasmussen has also showed a tightening Democratic primary over the past few days (basically since Wright), with Obama now up 46% to 44%. Worth noting that Clinton is up 48% to 42% among registered Democrats, so Obama is getting his lead from independents and Republicans willing to vote in the Dem primary.

• In the general election, Rasmussen shows McCain pulling ahead and leading both Democrats 48% to 42% -- a lead that is starting to look significant. Confirming that Obama's issues are due to last week's stories is the drop in his favorability rating and the rise of his unfavorable rating.

Naturally, the Clinton-Obama national match-ups are more useless now than ever since there only are a handful of states that still have to vote. But they are an important indication of the mood of the country and of the impact stories are having. And the Obama campaign will take comfort in a CNN poll released today but taken from Friday to Sunday (so also after the Wright controversy) that shows Obama is leading Clinton 52% to 46%. This is the first time Obama is above 50% in a CNN national poll.

Finally, SUSA released a Senate poll today from Minnesota and brought some good news for the GOP:

• The incumbent Norm Coleman is way ahead of the Democrat Al Franken, 51% to 41%.
• This is a dramatic shift from SUSA's February poll that showed a toss-up between the two candidates. What is strange is that the male vote practically did not change between the two but that the female vote dramatically shifted from Franken to Coleman.

This is the first poll taken since Franken became the likely Democratic nominee with the withdrawal of his strongest opponent. And it is particularly frustrating for Democrats since it follows a string of polls that showed Franken edging out Coleman, confirming that this seat will be one of the most hotly contested (and entertaining) of the cycle. We will have to get confirmation that this poll is not an outlier, of course, and the numbers remain close enough (especially this far out of Election Day) for us to rate this as one of the Democrats' very best pick-up opportunities.

The GOP delegate race: Romney's survival depends on California, Georgia, Missouri

Little attention is being paid to the Republican race ever since John McCain's victory in Florida. But does the Arizona Senator really have things wrapped up? With recent polls showing Romney tying McCain in California and Huckabee and him still having a shot in major battlegrounds like Missouri, Georgia, McCain has not been coronated just yet. A number of conservatives -- starting with Rush Limbaugh -- are seeking to rally the conservative troops to block McCain's path. Ann Coulter even announced that she would vote for Hillary Clinton against John McCain, going as far as calling herself a converted "Hillary girl."

John McCain has three major advantages going into Tuesday. First is Romney's unwillingness to go all out in this final week. Not only has Romney not invested a significant amount in February 5th states, but he is still refusing to draw contrasts with McCain. 2 days from McCain potentially putting an end to the Republican campaign, the Arizona Senator is still mostly unattacked. No wonder his popularity has soared and he is doing so well against Democrats in the general election at the moment. Second, Mike Huckabee's presence in the race is a boost to McCain. It would be too simplistic to say that Huckabee backers would support Romney if their candidate was not in the race, but Huckabee's determination to attack Romney and contest the conservative vote is proving too much to handle for Romney.

Third, as Jonathan Martin reminds us, McCain looks particularly inevitable because of the fact that four of the seven winner-take-all states (AZ, NJ, NY and CT) are strong McCain states. The delegate allocation in these primaries was transformed to a winner-take-all system thanks to Giuliani's campaign manager DuHaime who was hoping that his candidate would get all of the Tri-State area delegates. But now that Giuliani has dropped out, McCain is likely to sweep those four states and shut Romney out entirely from delegate allocation. McCain will come out of those 4 states with as much as 236 delegates!

What does Romney need to accomplish? He needs to stay in contact with John McCain. Right now, he has 87 delegates to John McCain's 180 (I believe this set of numbers does not include Maine). The addition of the 236 winner-take-all delegates to McCain's column mean that Romney faces a huge deficit and he needs to hold that as small as possible to be able to go on. And he has the means to do so, and not only in states like Utah and Massachusetts. A win in Georgia and Missouri could go a long way to helping Romney make up some lost ground, as well as all the caucus states in which Romney is hoping to get more than 50% of the vote -- and of delegates. And then there is California, where Romney looks to have some momentum. Even if he wins there, it would not mean a big boost in delegates given that McCain would prevail in numerous districts, but it could help Romney in the all important spin war.

If Romney survives Super Tuesday -- which is still very much possible -- he could draw this out into a longer fight. The pace of campaigning will slow down and Romney could then once again use his financial advantage. And in a two-way race, Romney could hope to rally the conservative vote. But Romney supporters (and probably most Democrats) don't bet on Romney's resurgence.

The chances of his pulling this off are very slim. To survive, Romney needs to pull out victories in Missouri and probably Georgia and California, and hope that Huckabee beats McCain in Alabama. Even if he is locked in toss-ups in all those states, McCain remains highly competitive and comes in usually slightly on top. So don't be surprised if he sweeps most of them on Tuesday night.

Here here is a state by state breakdown of Tuesday's Republican primaries and caucuses.

Strong McCain: The winner-take-alls

• Arizona (53), New Jersey (52), Connecticut (30), New York (101). All winner-take-all, so 236 delegates for McCain.


• Illinois, 70 delegates allocated by district. Most of them should go for McCain.

Strong Romney

• Utah (36): Winner take-all, so all 36 delegates for Romney.


• Massachusetts (43): Proportional allocation, so McCain will come out with a significant share of those 43 delegates. Romney has to curse the fact that his home state is the primary state that distributes delegates the most evenly.
  

Strong Huckabee

• Arkansas (34): Proportional allocation, so McCain and Romney will both come out with delegates.

Lean McCain

• Oklahoma (41): 23 delegates allocated WTA statewide (should all go to McCain); 3 delegates allocated WTA in each district, most of which should go for McCain.

Lean Romney: The caucus states

• The states that hold caucuses and conventions: Minnesota (43), North Dakota (26), Alaska (29), Colorado (46). The delegate allocation will take some sort of proportionality so Romney will have to share his delegates, but he has gotten more than 50% in similar contests that have already been held (Maine, Wyoming).
• None of these states will allocate pledge delegates this Tuesday, as delegates will be pledged at conventions later in the year. But the same was true in Iowa and Nevada. The media will come out with estimates of delegates here and these will be added to the totals.


• West Virginia will allocate all 18 of its at-large delegates to the winner of its convention. More delegates will be attributed in a May primary.

Three-way too close to call: Romney HAS to do well here if he wants to stay in contact

• Missouri (58): The primary is WTA so this is the biggest contest of the night, with a lot of delegates for the winner. Romney has to do win here if he wants to stay in some sort of contact with McCain. Helping McCain is the fact that this is an open primary.
  


• Georgia (72); 33 delegates allocated WTA to statewide winner, 3 delegate per district allocated WTA. The state's winner will get a big delegate boost, and even if Romney comes within 1% of McCain he will find himself trailing widely in delegates. So this is another must-win for Romney and unfortunately for him GA is also an open primary.
  


• Tennessee (55): Delegate allocation mostly proportional, so Romney has less to lose (or gain).

Close between Romney, McCain

• California (173): 11 delegates attributed WTA statewide, 3 delegates attributed WTA in each district: The big prize is unlikely to help Mitt Romney much. Whether he wins or loses will mean 11 delegates statewide and, unless he wins big (which is still very unlikely), McCain will prevail in a significant number of districts, especially those on the coast. But a win in California combined with good results elsewhere (MO, GA, TN) could give Romney enough of a boost to stay in the race.


• Delaware (18): All delegates allocated WTA statewide, leans ever so slightly McCain.

Close between Huckabee and McCain

• Alabama (48): Delegate allocation is mostly proportional, so no one should get a big share of deleagtes here. Romney needs to cross 15% to get some of the delegates and stay in contact.

John McCain can thank his GOP rivals for getting him where he is

John McCain is now close to clinching his party's nomination, a remarkable come back that would not have been possible without the help of fellow candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, who seemingly did everything they could to get him where he is today. Over the past six weeks, these candidates seemed intent on hurting Mitt Romney and boosting John McCain and they allowed the Arizona Senator to coast through January mostly unscathed. Here are a few key dates in the effort by McCain's rivals to help their opponent and the accompanying story lines.

December 16th: Giuliani pulls out of New Hampshire: The first Rudy Giuliani's stunning decision to concede New Hampshire opened the door wide for McCain's come-back. I reported on this on December 16th, just 6 weeks ago. Remember, Giuliani was not gaining ground in New Hampshire but as of December, he was tied with McCain around 20%, with Romney hovering above 30%. Check this mid-December poll for example, that had Romney at 32%, McCain at 18% and Giuliani at 15%.

Giuliani's pulling out caused his support to collapse, with McCain carrying most of it. Romney remained at the same level for weeks and weeks up to January 8th, showing no sign of weakening. Giuliani's collapse in Florida also helped McCain pull out those 5%, particularly in Miami-Dade where Giuliani thought he was particularly strong.

And this followed other very lucky breaks McCain got in the run-up to Iowa and New Hampshire. If Huckabee had not surged in late November and overtaken Mitt Romney in Iowa, McCain would not have been able to derail Romney's game plan of easily winning the caucuses and concentrating his attention on New Hampshire. Given Romney's healthy lead in New Hampshire until the final days of 2007 where McCain pulled into a tie, it is difficult to imagine Romney not riding the wave of an Iowa victory into New Hampshire. Though I grant that Huckabee's Iowa surge was not consciously planned by the candidate to help McCain, the Arizona Senator enjoyed a series of events that were outside of his control but that lined up perfectly for him to make his move.

January 10th: No one challenges McCain in debate: In most of the January debates, there was only one target, and that was Mitt Romney. And only the former Massachusetts Governor went after McCain, even when it became obvious that McCain was the candidate to beat. It all began at ABC's New Hampshire debate on January 5th, where the candidates ganged up on Romney. Then, on January 10th, after one more encounter which McCain left unscathed, I asked, "Do Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee want John McCain to be the GOP nominee?" I had not realized yet to what extent that would prove true.

January 27th: Huckabee rushes to Giuliani's rescue: In the run-up to South Carolina and to Florida, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani knew they were days away from elimination and that staying alive required taking swipes at John McCain. Yet, both of them dramatically refused to do so. Huckabee in fact spent more time praising the Arizona Senator than criticizing him. As Romney and McCain were engaged in some harsh rhetoric over Romney's alleged support of a withdrawal timetable, Huckabee rushed to McCain's rescue. In an indirect swipe at Romney, Huckabee declared, "I’ve never seen John McCain say something that is just blatantly untrue... We have a civil approach to presidential process. Neither of us has sought the office by cracking the kneecaps of the other.”

As mysterious was Giuliani's decision to not capitalize on a rare major policy disagreement among the GOP candidates. McCain opposes the idea of a national catastrophic fund, which is a big issue in Florida and which Giuliani supports. But instead of hitting McCain for this position on the airwaves and in mailers, Giuliani only released a web video criticizing McCain's opposition to the fund. More stunning still,

Mike Huckabee has been transparently campaigning for a vice-presidential spot at this point. But what is more difficult to explain is why Huckabee decided to more or less give up his quest for the nomination and focus on the VP spot when he still had a chance of getting the presidential nod. At the January 10th debate for example, the Iowa caucuses were still a week old and Huckabee had all his chances in the South Carolina primary. Why did he decide to give McCain a free pass and continued doing so in the next three weeks?

Many observers doubted that John McCain would get clinch the nomination given the distrust he inspires among conservatives. But for that distrust to kick in and cost McCain victory, his rivals had to step up and commit to pointing out the deficiencies in McCain's record. Instead, Romney remained the only candidate attempting any sort of attack on John McCain and the Arizona Senator is close to becoming his party's nominee. After a year long campaign from which all his GOP rivals are emerging bruised and wimping, John McCain is arguably even more unscathed than he was on day one.

Republicans: John McCain marching towards the nomination

The night of Romney's Michigan victory -- exactly two weeks ago -- the GOP race looked to be in complete chaos. And the prospect of an all-out brawl for the nomination of both parties -- with perhaps even two brokered conventions! -- was very exciting for all political junkies. But things ended up very differently. Within two weeks and with a week still to go before Super Tuesday, the GOP almost has settled on its nominee. And what for months was the most unpredictable and wide open contest of modern history is drawing to a close.

McCain, who was already leading in most major Feb. 5th states, will be even harder to stop next week. He is already leading in New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona and California, just to mention a few. The first four of these are winner-take-all and by themselves should guarantee that McCain comes out of Super Tuesday with a massive delegate lead. Romney's hope was to win Florida yesterday and ride that wave to launch a massive advertisement blitz in the big states and overtake McCain. Now, Romney can at best hope to win some Southern or interior states, and even there he probably will have to divide many of the delegates with his rivals as the states in which Romney could be strong are not necessarily winner-take-all.

Let's take a moment to reflect how implausible it is that McCain came back from the dead to now be the clear favorite to get the nomination. Remember, McCain stabilized his position early in the fall after his disastrous July, but it wasn't until December -- after the huge Huckabee surge of November/early December -- that McCain suddenly stormed ahead and took everyone by surprise.

I am aware that I am writing this in the heat of McCain's victory. If there is anything Romney has done again and again throughout January, it's turn around moments that were supposed to be fatal and stay alive against all odds. Iowa was supposed to kill him, he lost no ground in New Hampshire; losing the second contest in a row in New Hampshire was really described as the end of him, but Romney stayed alive and prevailed in Michigan. His distant third-place in South Carolina was a disappointment, but Romney closed the gap in Florida's final week and entered Election Day in a complete toss-up. Yet, this loss is obviously very different, as this is the first time the winning candidate was the one who had the momentum going in, and the momentum going forward. And with the election now going national, Romney cannot duplicate his January strategy.

That does not mean that Romney will not contest the race strongly in the next week. Advisers are saying that he is still likely to spend significant amounts of his own money in a last push to shift numbers, but it is unclear where he can contest McCain's domination. He will go for the South, but has to deal with Huckabee's strength there; he could win Western states, but how far can that possibly get him? And to make matters worse Romney will have to deal with the massive deficit in early-voting.

So does Huckabee have anywhere to go? Huckabee is going to contest a Southern strategy, hoping to capitalize on the large share of conservatives and evangelicals. But Huckabee was marginalized on January 19th when he failed to win South Carolina. Not that he really tried to derail McCain, though. He will probably manage to win a few Southern primaries, but these are unlikely to be attributed to anything else than his evangelical base at this point; and Huckabee will be hurt by Romney's own Southern strategy. Then again, don't rule out Huckabee staying in the race longer than Romney can, particularly if Huckabee wins Missouri.

And that leaves us with Rudy Giuliani, whose collapse was as dramatic as it was not surprising. Yes, Giuliani was still ahead in all national polls at the end of 2007. But he had no credible paths to the nomination -- and frankly, he stopped having one when he decided to concede New Hampshire early in December (as I reported on December 16th). Giuliani's late-state strategy never made sense, and I said so starting very early in the fall. (Almost) everything that happened in the lead-up to Florida was Rudy's ideal scenario and he failed to get even half of McCain's total.

The debate among political pundits now is whether Giuliani would have been better-served if he had contested South Carolina and New Hampshire, with some saying that Giuliani's road to the nomination was doomed from the start because of his position on social issues and that he ended up being too unpopular among GOP voters. That is very much true, and Giuliani's December decline in New Hampshire even though he spent millions there speaks to that. But my claim is not that Giuliani would have won the nomination by contesting in the early-states; rather, it is that his reliance on momentum-proof leads made very little sense and that was tragically obvious to most people outside of the campaign.

South Carolina claimed a victim: Fred Thompson drops out

Fred Thompson, once celebrated as the savior of the Republican Party, dropped out of the race today, issuing a brief statement: "Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort."

Not that this is a surprise. Thompson's very weak third in South Carolina on Saturday had doomed his candidacy and the candidate had no where to turn given that he had put all his eggs in the basket of the Palmetto state. He made that state the focus of his campaign, but it was too little too late as he never caught fire and barely edged Romney.

Thompson formally entered the race in September, but that was after months of speculation and public preparation -- and I'm not even speaking of his visits to early-states. As the GOP base and establishment were dissatisfied with their options and looking for a conservative candidate, Thompson suddenly appeared as a savior, a true conservative who could rally his party's faithful. And then he waited and waited before starting his campaign, leaving his rivals ample time to address some concerns, raise money and get endorsements.

When he entered, he was generally polling a solid second in national polls and regularly led in South Carolina surveys -- check this post I wrote a few days after Thompson's announcement about his poll bounce. But that quickly faded as Thompson kept committing errors and quickly acquired a reputation as a lazy campaigner who did not really want to be out there looking for votes. Whether or not that was fair, Thompson's problem was simply that he came in way too late, and it is striking how much his trajectory (celebrated savior, lousy campaigner and early exit) resembles that of Wesley Clark in 2004.

The main reason why Thompson never really took off was Mike Huckabee's surge. Huckabee's social conservative base was the group of voters Huckabee was the most dependent on (as was evident in South Carolina. And if in the spring Huckabee was polling at 1% and was not an option for disaffected conservatives, that was no longer the case in September. Huck's second place showing in Ames had put him on the map and he quickly moved to coalesce support in South Carolina and in Iowa -- the two states Thompson was going to go for -- which deprived Thompson of any space.

How does this affect the rest of the race? Had Fred Thompson retired last week, Huckabee might have won South Carolina. And going forward, Thompson's exit means that Huckabee has a much better chance of rallying the social conservative vote and getting a few wins in the South come February 5th. More immediately, Thompson's bowing out means that the race will be less fractured in Florida. In particular, the conservative vote will not divide itself between three candidates (Huck, Thompson, Romney) but only between two. And that is bad news for McCain and Giuliani who were hoping that Romney would be held down as Huck and Fred siphon votes away from him.

Down the line, Romney can celebrate having one less candidate fracturing the race and McCain's hope of getting victories in closed primaries with narrow pluralities gets much more difficult with one less candidate (which means the victor will have to get a higher percentage of the vote).

But things are obviously not that simple: Thompson wants McCain to win, and there is little doubt at this hour that he will endorse the AZ Senator shortly. Endorsements don't usually carry that much weight but that could help McCain offset the Thompson withdrawal and get enough votes from Thompson backers that he will not suffer to much. Thompson's endorsement will also allow McCain to beef up his conservative credentials and perhaps reassure some in the base.

Heading to Florida, GOP emerges out of chaos

John McCain's narrow win in South Carolina brought some clarity to the Republican race, that was threatening to sink into utter chaos if Huckabee had managed to scramble the cards once more. Let's give John McCain credit for his victory, because Huckabee sure looked set to triumph here when he won Iowa on the strength of the evangelical vote. And what is even more remarkable is that McCain managed to win in an environment that was much more difficult for him than in 2000. Only 19% of the electorate was independent this year, versus 30% in 2000, but McCain appears to have narrowly won the vote of registered Republicans. He performed above expectations in the upstate conservative strongholds and triumphed the more moderate coastal counties.

The key factor in McCain's victory is that the field was fractured. In 2000, McCain was facing George W. Bush who had rallied the party's establishment. McCain lost despite getting 42% of the vote. This time around, Fred Thompson's presence on the ballot helped McCain a great deal. By taking third-place and running very strongly upstate (21% in Greenvile County, for example), Thompson kept Huckabee's percentages down among evangelicals and conservatives. Huckabee "only" got 41% among evangelicals to McCain's 27%. In Iowa, Huckabee had crushed Romney 46% to 19% among that group. Another factor that helped McCain was Romney's decision to concede the race a few days ago. That seems to have weakened Romney in the coastal counties and allowed McCain to open up big margins there.

Yet, however narrow his victory and whether or not he would have won without Thompson being on the ballot and without Romney conceding the state, McCain's win is a huge boost to the Arizona Senator. And it is the main story out of Saturday. We always knew the Nevada results would be overshadowed by South Carolina and its king-maker reputation kings in Republican politics. This by no way means that McCain has wrapped-up the nomination, but he has certainly reclaimed his front-runner status. Since his New Hampshire win, McCain has been rising in national polls and now looks very strong in states like New York, New Jersey and... Florida. With the press now celebrating McCain's renaissance in the Palmetto State, his big-state advantage will likely strengthen. To put it as clearly as possible, McCain's rivals better hope to stop him in Florida.

Another reason why the Republican race is now so much more clear -- beyond the fact that there is now a front-runner -- is that three candidates are much less viable tonight than they were this morning. I am speaking, of course, of Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani.

First up: Huckabee. His nomination route was entirely based on a Southern strategy that would make him win the February 5th states among which evangelicals are the strongest and combine that with strong showings nationally thanks to the force of the religious right and also of more working-class voters that allowed him to helped him claim third-place in Michigan. Huckabee was even hoping to get a strong showing in Florida off a victory in South Carolina. But that strategy is now put in peril. Around 55% of the electorate tonight was evangelical, and if Huckabee did not manage to win in this kind of environment, where can he succeed? The Iowa caucuses were about 60% evangelical -- but that was also due to the fact that there were lower-turnout caucuses. Huckabee did not even get a clear win among that group, as his 14% advantage is not enough if he wants to get his Southern strategy to work.

Second, Fred Thompson. South Carolina was "his stand" as he put it, and he came in a weak third. Frankly, one has to wonder whether he isn't even a bit happy about the results, as long as he made John McCain win. In his speech tonight, Thompson was already speaking in past tense, and he will face a deluge of questions about when he is dropping out. Thompson is nowhere in national polls nor is he polling in significant numbers anywhere else in the country. His only hope was a strong showing there, and it had been a while we knew he would not get it.

Finally, the results tonight were worrisome for Rudy Giuliani. Up until today, everything had played out perfectly for his campaign. Three winners in three states, no front-runner and chaos. But McCain's rise leaves very little space for Giuliani, so that Rudy desperately needed Huckabee to extend the chaos. Not only do McCain and Giuliani appeal to the same group of socially moderate voters focused on national security, but McCain is strong in the states that Giuliani needs the most. And a recent poll of New York has McCain moving into a tie with Giuliani in his home-state. If McCain had lost tonight, he would have faltered in places like New York and Florida and allowed Giuliani to recuperate his voters just as the spotlight turns back on him. But Giuliani will now have to deal with a surging McCain who will make it that much more difficult for Rudy to get anywhere in Florida. And this is not even mentioning the fact that Giuliani came in sixth in both of today's showings, at 4% in Nevada and at 2% in South Carolina -- two pathetic showings for the candidate who long ran as the national front-runner.

And that leaves McCain confronting Mitt Romney, who came in a weak fourth tonight considering he had spent millions in the state since September. But Romney triumphed in Nevada earlier in the day which guarantees that he stays in the storyline going forward. Romney now has a delegate lead which he will keep until at least January 29th; he is also the candidate with the most state wins, having also won Michigan and Wyoming. And more importantly, Romney has all the money he can wish for given that he is freely spending his personal fortune. Romney probably realizes that he needs to cut McCain's advantage there, for he cannot afford seeing McCain head into Super Tuesday with a huge high-profile triumph in Florida.

We're ten days from the next Republican contest, and the storyline has finally gotten more clear: John McCain and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle for the nomination, with Rudy Giuliani trying to save himself in Florida and Mike Huckabee trying to generate some buzz in Southern states. Granted, both races have been crazy enough that no one should be counted at this stage, especially in the run-up to Florida. But the situation certainly appears much less chaotic than it did twelve hours ago.

The Republican race, post-Michigan: A chaotic ride, with even more undecision expected this Saturday

Mitt Romney got his early-state win. Most people expected it to come in Iowa or in New Hampshire, but Romney managed to lose both of those despite outspending the entire field and then came back to win the primary in the state he grew up in. While Romney's 9% victory is not really a come back given that he massively outpsend his opponents yet again and that he was never that far behind in the polls here, it is still a remarkable turn-around for a candidate that most people thought would be dead if he lost both IA and NH. And sure, Romney was fighting on home turf, but so McCain had many structural advantages favoring him -- he had won here in 2000, the primary was even more open than NH's and Democrats were not holding a competitive contest.

Romney can now go on to later contests, and remember that he is the only candidate with no money problem given that he looks perfectly comfortable funding his campaign with his own money. He cannot be considered the front-runner given that he is leading in no Feb. 5th state nor in Florida and South Carolina at this point, but he has the delegate lead for now.

McCain would have started a coronation march had he pulled off Michigan last night. Instead, he fell victim to his 2000 demons. Registered Republicans are not lining up behind him, and with some of the most important elections that are coming up closed primaries (for example in California), McCain has to improve his standing among the party's base. He cannot go on winning on the strength of the independent vote.

Now, the race turns to South Carolina and to Nevada which vote on Saturday. Most candidates are exclusively focused on South Carolina except Mitt Romney who is going to spend two days in Nevada and run some ads there. He was already the only candidate to haev spend time in the state, so he has to be considered the favorite in the state for now (today's ARG poll gives him a 7% lead). If he pulls Nevada off, Romney could spin a South Carolina defeat as inconsequential, perhaps keep his delegate lead and claim that he is the first candidate with three state wins (if you count Wyoming).

Most eyes will be turned to South Carolina, however, where the battle is already fierce. John McCain was leading in most polls this last few days with Huckabee running a strong second on the strength of the evangelical vote. South Carolina was McCain's undoing in 2000, but he has two huge advantages he did not have back then: (1) He is much stronger among registered Republicans, mainly because there is no establishment candidate the party's base can rally to like it did 8 years ago. (2) The GOP establishment and leadership hates Mike Huckabee much more than they do McCain, and the people who were fighting McCain then are now going after Huckabee.

Mitt Romney used to be stronger in South Carolina than he has been since McCain's rise. Now, Romney has started airing ads here again, and the big question is how much if any boost he will get from his first big win. Just as Thompson is rising in SC again and taking votes from Huckabee, Romney could take votes from McCain in the state, and things could tighten up even more than they already have. And the race is already becoming very nasty

And finally there is the Giuliani factor. Let's face it, the scenario that has played out in the early states was Giuliani's dream set-up: Three states, three victors, no momentum for anyone, nasty adwares between the other candidates, complete chaos and no front-runner. This was what Giuliani was hoping would happen for months now, and it was completely out of his control whether or not it would. Now, we will know if a big state strategy that shuns all early states can ever be viable. If Giuliani cannot pull it off under these conditions, no one probably ever will.

In the three first voting states, Giuliani came behind Ron Paul twice. In Iowa, he flirted with 4%; in Michigan, he was barely ahead of "uncommitted." He is completely out of the news cycle and, even if none of them looks like a front-runner, the other candidates are all benefiting from media exposure and some momentum. And a new poll from New Jersey taken by Monmouth University shows that Giuliani's argument that his lead in states like NY and NJ is "momentum-proof" is completely flawed: McCain leads Giuliani 29% to 25%, with Huckabee at 11%.

Rudy cannot count on his "home states" delivering for him in February. The good news for him is that he has 10 days between South Carolina and Florida (on the 29th). He has to get some momentum in those ten days, and I'm not sure if he has much left in him to make that happen.

McCain surges nationally and faces tests next week, as Kos helps Romney and Huckabee relies on the South

It's only been three days since John McCain's New Hampshire victory, but all evidence is that the Arizona Senator has regained his status as the GOP front-runner. And remember, his surge started way before January 8th, so it cannot be attributed to a post-New Hampshire bounce. The first sign of movement in favor of McCain occurred in Iowa, where he looked stunningly strong considering he had barely campaigned in the state. Now, a series of polls released this afternoon confirms that McCain is marching towards the nomination and his rivals better stop him fast, preferably next week:

• A Michigan poll has McCain up 23% to Mitt Romney's 16% and Mike Huckabee at 11%.


• SUSA, meanwhile, released a poll of Florida that shows some big movement: McCain leads with 27%; behind him comes a three-way tie for second, with Giuliani at 19% and Romney and Huckabee at 17%. A month ago, Giuliani got 32% with Huck at 16% and McCain at 11%.


• Last but not least, a national poll from CNN has some shocking numbers. Not only is this the first (non-Rasmussen) survey with McCain up, but he is ahead big: 34% to Huckabee's 21% and Giuliani's 18%. In the last CNN poll, McCain only had 11%.

Remember that many in the GOP were waiting for a front-runner they could rally around, and that Giuliani tried to fill that position without every being really convincing. The McCain surge is not just a post-victory bounce; it might be the base that had abandoned him after an early vetting coming back around after having vetted everyone else.

McCain has two obstacles. The first is that he needs to eliminate Romney for good on Tuesday in Michigan. He has a lot going for him there, in particular the fact that the primary is open again. Furthermore, he won the state in 2000 in a much less divided field, as Bush had coalesced the conservative vote. This time, that vote will likely divide itself between Huck and Romney.

Yet, Romney is strong in that state as well. Naturally his dad was governor there, but the Romney camp believes his emphasis on business experience and economic issues will play particularly well here. And now comes a truly bizarre story: DailyKos's Markos is organizing a Democrats for Mitt campaign to get Michigan Democrats to cross-over to the GOP primary (since there is no contest in the Dem side) and vote for Romney. His explanation: "We want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us. We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win in Michigan."

I am not suggesting that Romney will win the primary out of this, but it is an interesting reference point in the post-New Hampshire dynamics of the GOP race. Though you should not underestimate the strength of the netroots. Kos cites many prior examples of this happening in Michigan, starting with the 1972 presidential primaries in which 1/3 of voters in the Dem primary were GOPers who helped segregationist George Wallace win the contest. The main issue here is how to spread the word in 6 days -- and efforts are already under way, starting with a booming Facebook group.

The second obstacle to McCain is Huckabee's strength in Southern states. A new poll of Georgia released today has Huckabee leading the field, and Huck is still very much in contention to win South Carolina next week. His hold of evangelicals demonstrated by his big Iowa win should be very useful there and going into Feb. 5th where a lot of Southern states will vote (including Georgia).

If Huckabee sweeps Southern states, it would be hard for McCain to force him out of the race and the GOP race could get more muddied. The South awards many delegates, and its importance cannot be understated in a GOP primary. After all, Thompson's strategy always relied on winning the South -- which explains why he is now going after Huck so ferociously.

Of course, McCain winning South Carolina would ease those concerns and show his own strength in the South. And winning Michigan would allow him to knock Romney out and coalesce much of Romney's establishment-type support around himself. McCain could go a long way towards clinching the nomination if he succeeds next week.

Republican debate: No one goes after McCain, and I'm at a loss to explain why

Tonight's Republican debate raises a very puzzling question: Do Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee want John McCain to be the GOP nominee?

The debate, hosted on Fox News, was the third in the space of five days, but the situation has dramatically changed since the back-to-back meetings of this past weekend. McCain won the New Hampshire primary, and he has jumped to leads in next week's contests in Michigan and South Carolina. If he manages to win both of those primaries, it would become very difficult for his rivals to stop his momentum and prevent the party's establishment from rallying around the Arizona Senator.

Yet, none of the candidates was interested in going after John McCain tonight; the contrast could not have been greater with last Saturday's ABC debate in which the entire field piled on Mitt Romney, sensing an opportunity to knock him out of contention. Giuliani did take a small swipe against his " friend, John" but it was only in order to point out that he deserves some credit for the surge as well. "There were other people on this stage supporting the surge," he complained.

Fred Thompson did himself a lot of good tonight; mocked as a lazy candidate unwilling to get as tough as he needs, he surprised many watchers by coming right out of the gate bashing Huckabee. Listing his rival's apostasies on Guantanamo Bay, on taxes and on a national smoking ban, Thompson concluded, "That’s not the model of the Reagan coalition; that’s the model of the Democratic Party." Thompson obviously feels that a strong South Carolina showing requires taking Huckabee down a peg, and if this intense attack continues in the coming week and is maybe picked up by other candidates it could certainly knock Huckabee off-balance.

But that would first and foremost help John McCain whose main rival in South Carolina right now is Huckabee. With Romney and McCain planning on spending much of this week in Michigan, Huckabee was hoping to have the Palmetto State all to himself. But McCain must be delighted to see that he can count on Thompson to do the dirty job.

Fox News boosted McCain further by pushing him to take the lead in the Ron Paul bashing. In every debate, the Republican candidates battle to look like the most anti-Paul on stage and they usually do so by engaging the libertarian the most aggressively and drawing him out in a back-and-forth that will make them look tough on national security. Tonight, Fox News repeatedly cut to a sighing and exasperated-looking McCain as Paul was denouncing America's foreign policy and empire-building, and they prompted the Senator to respond to Paul's claim. McCain happily obliged with a series of one-liners and as a result he got a lot of air time to defend George W. Bush's policies and he made sure to emphasize his responsibility in bringing about the Iraq surge.

This is not to say that Ron Paul is losing these debates. The extent to which Ron Paul has been hijacking these debates is remarkable. When it comes to foreign policy, Ron Paul is granted rebuttal and rebuttal to make his case and explain how the Republican Party has strayed from its conservative roots. Boosted by cheering Paulites in the crowd, the candidate stood his ground tonight, and it is time to wonder what effect he could have in the general election if he decides to run as an independent.

But Paul aside, the winner of this debate could not be more clear. By being left untouched for 90 minutes, McCain prevailed tonight. With nine days to go to South Carolina, the GOP candidates will have to confront John McCain at some point; and it could soon be too late.

Republican debate: The candidates gang up on Romney, reduced to a bullied kid

I'm not sure I saw the same debate as other observers tonight, as the consensus seems to be that the shots against Mitt Romney helped McCain and sank Romney. In the debate I was watching, the entire field looked stunningly childish and every candidate looked like a schoolyard bully going first after Ron Paul, and second after Mitt Romney. (Update: The TNR's Noam Schreiber saw it the same way). The entire field was diminished and Mitt Romney half of the time looked like a bullied kid and half of the time like the only adult of the room, as he managed to keep his calm and a very straight-face.

The attacks Romney were, plainly put, insults. It is well known that his rivals -- especially McCain -- hate Romney more than anyone else. And that was fully on display tonight. Even when the attack was roughly based on substance, John McCain's wide grin and Rudy Giuliani's very loud laugh betrayed how much they were enjoying the Romney-bashing. McCain had the most one-liners against Romney, and all of them were performed with a very strange grin. His one-liner that's likely to be the most quoted occurred after Romney described Obama as a change candidate, to which McCain answered: "Governor Romney--we disagree on many things, but you are the candidate of change."

The most revealing moment occurred in the first half of the debate. After Romney said "You know, you're not correctly characterizing my position..." Huckabee interrupted, "Which one?" And Giuliani was then heard saying "Oooooh..." Yes, that's right. "Oooooh..." The GOP debate had sank into a middle-school classroom.

And the dynamic continued throughout the night. It dominated the exchanges and made actual debating very difficult. It seems that the candidates had forgotten that the voters do not necessarily share their hatred and disdain. They might dislike or mistrust Romney, but the man still gets 30% of the vote and it's not necessarily obvious to voters why people keep laughing so loudly any time someone says something about Romney.

The night had started well for Mitt Romney. The first thing ABC's anchors talked about past 9pm was Romney's win in Wyoming -- ensuring that everyone watching knows about it. I was wondering this morning whether anyone would talk about Wyoming, and Romney has to be reassured here. And in the first 15 minutes, the targets were most and foremost Ron Paul (who went after America's imperialism and got every candidate screaming at him, trying to show they were the most un-Paul candidate) and Mike Huckabee, who was asked to defend his assertion that Bush's foreign policy was an arrogant bunker-mentality.

The debate centered on two domestic issues: Immigration and health care. And Romney was at the center of both. He started the discussion on health care strong, as he was the only one who had something concrete to say as he talked about the very precise Massachusetts plan. But he then considerably weakened as Thompson hit him on individual mandates, which can't be too popular among the GOP base. And then Romney was pushed to a seeming inconsistency over whether he would implement his state plan on the federal level -- he tried to explain that he would let it be a state-issue with federal incentive but he was clearly stuck under Thompson's questioning and did not clearly articulate his response.

On immigration, it was John McCain who was in difficulty at first as this is clearly the issue because of which he collapsed in the spring. Romney repeatedly criticized his answers as being a form of amnesty. And Romney's pressing was putting McCain in a bind when Thompson intervened once again and explained that Romney himself was far from clean on this issue and that both Giuliani and Romney were much more moderate on immigration a few years ago than they are today.

As is obvious from these moments of policy-discussion, Mitt Romney was certainly not a clear victor tonight. The point I am trying to make is merely that the personal insults that occurred so regularly throughout the debate diminished everybody -- and John McCain's sitting with a satisfied grin certainly did not help him. Throughout the first half of the debate, McCain looked absent as he did not jump in the discussion without being prompted at all and his seat put him physically in the periphery. The second half put him more at the center when the discussion shifted to immigration.

Mike Huckabee started on the defensive on foreign policy and had to be satisfied that the focus shifted to Mitt Romney. He is the winner of the Iowa caucuses, but he came out tonight mostly unscathed as his rivals were not interested in shooting him down given that he does not look like to much of a threat in New Hampshire. He got an opportunity to introduce himself to voters nationally, many of whom were probably taking a serious look at him for the first time.

Did the debate change the dynamics going into Tuesday? Romney looks to have fallen behind in the polls, but he was attacked like the front-runner today. He might not have managed to move enough people back his way, but John McCain did even less to secure his position on top of the polls. One of the main dynamics in New Hampshire is whether independents choose to vote in the GOP race or in the Democratic, and John McCain desperately needs as many of them as possible to choose to vote in his party's primary. Independents who tuned in tonight probably did not see the kind of serious discussion that might convince them to jump to McCain's camp.

Republicans: McCain is on fire, Romney needs to win tomorrow

The situation among Republicans is getting clearer, as three New Hampshire polls released this afternoon have Romney sinking fast in New Hampshire and McCain taking the lead -- and this only a day after the first poll showed McCain ahead of Romney:

• First, the daily tracking poll of Suffolk came out with improved McCain numbers, as the Senator is ahead 32% to 23% (it was 31-25 yesterday), with Giuliani falling to 11%.
• Second, Franklin Pierce released its poll with McCain at 37%, Romney at 31% and Giuliani at 10%.
• Last but not least comes the UNH survey that is perhaps the most trusted NH pollster. Here there is a tie for first place: Romney and McCain both get 29% and Giuliani once again is stuck at 10%, with Huckabee at 8%.


• And Pew released a national poll today which has McCain in front of Giuliani and Huckabee, 22% to 20% and 17%. This would not be particularly interesting given how useless national polls are at this point, but McCain had not had a lead in any reputable poll (Rasmussen gave him a 1% lead last week) for at least 8 or 9 month. And what a time to surge!

This unthinkable development two weeks ago puts the Romney campaign in its worst situation yet. Even when it started trailing in Iowa it maintained a healthy lead in New Hampshire. Naturally, Romney has to win one of the two early-states to stay alive -- and with McCain rising in NH it looks very unlikely at this point that Romney can pull of a win on the 8th if he loses in Iowa. And couple that with the possibility that McCain gets third-place tomorrow night without hardly campaigning in the state, and it becomes evident that the caucuses could bury Mitt Romney.

To make matters worse, the NH newspapers are continuing their anti-Romney crusade. Today, the New Hampshire Union-Leader which was one of the first papers to get behind McCain blasted Romney for the second time in two weeks in a front-page editorial. Newspaper endorsements usually don't matter that much, but newspapers also usually don't bother blasting a candidate again and again, and McCain has been using these editorials in ads and on the trail. And it's hard for Romney to make himself heard when the press systematically discredits him.

So a lot will be decided tomorrow night, and Romney might have more at stake than any other candidate; at this point, it cannot even be said that a NH win would be insured by an Iowa victory. At least, Romney has to be satisfied that he was able to climb back in Iowa. He had fallen behind a seemingly insurmountable lead against Huckabee but a month of steady pounding and of negative stories about the former Arkansas Governor leveled things again, and most polls now show a dead heat with the majority registering a tiny Romney lead (for all it's worth, Bob Novak just predicted that Romney would win tomorrow).

And we will also hopefully be able to measure tomorrow what impact if any Huckabee's infamous press conference of Monday had on the choices of Iowa voters. Huckabee has been pounded ever since in the national media, and things might have just gotten worse for the candidate. TPM is reporting that the negative ad against Romney that Huckabee announced he would not run to much fanfare is running after all on some Iowa televisions. This revelation might come too late to impact the voting tomorrow, but if confirmed it would severely discredit Huckabee's campaign and questions about this could follow him to later states.

One other interesting story in the GOP race: One of the big questions facing John McCain, of course, is his age. He is now 71, and he would be the oldest person inaugurated president if he wins next November. There had already been speculation that McCain could try to address this by pledging to only run for one-term, and he took the first step towards that today by opening the door to that possibility while taking questions from voters at a town hall. Naturally, this could also serve to bring his age in even more focus, as some voters might think that even one term is too much at such an advanced age. And does this not open the risk of lame-duck status coming much faster?

Republican Rankings: Who is the least unlikely to win?

My latest rankings of the GOP race was done about a month ago, at the beginning of the Huckabee surge which made everyone's calculations worthless and dramatically weakened both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. 9 days from Iowa and on a slow news day, it's the ideal time to update my assessment of the Republican race. Last month's rankings (with McCain at number 5th and Giuliani at number 2) now looks totally off.

This is a stunningly open race: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee have pretty much equally plausible paths to the nomination and none of their victories would be a surprise; in fact, it's almost impossible to rank them at this point given that so much of their fate is outside of their own control but depends on the showing of other candidates (that's especially Giuliani's case). As for Fred Thompson, he is clearly the least likely to pull this through at this point; but given the perfect storm, he could still get some buzz going and clinch the whole thing. So there you have it: 5 candidates who could very realistically become the Republican nominee -- making any ranking extremely difficult.

But let's face it: While all the candidates have plausible paths to the nomination, it's really impossible to look at any of them as likely.:

• Could Romney win Iowa or New Hampshire? Surely it's possible -- but odds at this point are that he gets neither.
• If he won Iowa and then probably South Carolina, Huckabee would face the massive GOP machine that has destroyed so many candidates in the past -- could he survive? No one else ever has.
• Sure, McCain could get New Hampshire, but then capitalizing on that to win South Carolina and the big states against Giuliani when he's massively under-organized and probably depended on independents to carry New Hampshire, just like in 2000? Odds are against it.
• If Giuliani is already plunging in the big states before any early contest has been decided and any early victor has gathered some momentum, can he be expected to maintain any sort of form in Florida and California after coming in fourt/fifth in primaries throughout January? I've always said this was hugely implausible, and his poll numbers are already showing why.
• As for Thompson, I'm really not sure what a good scenario would be for him anymore: A strong third in Iowa? McCain is threatening that. A victory in South Carolina? Huckabee winning Iowa would nix that hope, and if Romney prevails there expect him to be favored to sweep January.

Right, you get the picture. All scenarios look stunningly unlikely. Though one of them will come to pass, and one of these candidates will become the nominee. The question then is which of these scenarios is the least far-fetched at this point? And believe me, it took me a long time to decide on that answer:

1. John McCain (November ranking: 5)

I realize how crazy it sounds to suggest John McCain is now favored to win the nomination. But frankly his scenario just sounds the least unlikely of them all -- provided Romney does not win Iowa. If Romney pulls through in the caucuses, McCain will probably lose his opening in New Hampshire and not get very far. But McCain is doing the most of his surge -- and is now moving in Iowa for a few days to capitalize on some of his numbers moving there. This means that McCain is taking his fate in his own hands, instead of being left to pray that Huckabee comes out on top of Romney. If McCain comes in a strong third -- and even competing for second, it would be a strong signal that he is back whoever is at the top of the race, and he would remain very competitive in New Hampshire 5 days later.

As for the later states, 2008 is not 2000. The base then did not trust McCain, but it had an establishment candidate to turn towards. George W Bush made sure to demolish McCain in South Carolina, but who would do that today? It is much more likely that the establishment would be concerned with how to destroy Huckabee than how to hurt McCain, and the AZ Senator could emerge as the unlikely beneficiary of establishment support. Not because anyone trusts him more (if anything, the immigration fallout of the spring and his collapse in July show that they trust him less) but because his opponents are even worse in the eyes of some in the base. GOP voters vetted Rudy, Romney, and Huckabee and many do not like what they see -- making McCain suddenly an acceptable option. It's all come down full circle, and the first frontrunner of this insane race could emerge as the frontrunner once more.

That said, Romney has not lost Iowa just yet, nor has Thompson given up on coming in third. And McCain has not yet won New Hampshire. Depending on the Iowa results, McCain's hope could be crushed in a heartbeat. Imagine if Romney beats Huckabee by 6-7% with Thompson coming in third? You can wave good bye to McCain at number 1.

And even if McCain gets some early wins, that would serve to eliminate Huckabee and Romney -- which would be Rudy Giuliani's dream scenario. This would probably lock McCain and Giuliani in a two-fight for the nomination in later states, and while McCain would benefti from his early state wins, he has no organization in places like Florida.

2. Mitt Romney (November ranking: 1)

How quickly have things degenarated for the Romney campaign. At Thanksgiving, his Iowa and New Hampshire leads seemed unsurmountable; and then Mike Huckabee came out of nowhere and distanced Romney, forcing him to go negative and spend his time in a state he thought he had wrapped up. And just when we thought that this could actually work in Romney's favor, it was John McCain's turn to surge in New Hampshire and challenge Romney there -- which means that Romney will find it very difficult to pull through in New Hampshire if he loses Iowa. And at least the situation is clear: Without either of the early-states, his entire primary strategy collapses and he is out by January 8th.

The good news for Romney: He is the only candidate positioned to sweep the field... if only he wins Iowa or New Hampshire. If he wins in Iowa, he is likely to go on to pull through in New Hampshire, in Michigan, and in South Carolina -- and it's then hard to see how anyone can stop him. So can he still pull through Iowa (or possibly New Hampshire without Iowa)?

Romney has the best organization of any candidate in the two early states, and he has spent a ton of money. Many Republicans see him as the concensus conservative -- and McCain's reliance on independents could cause a backlash among Republicans. Iowa polls show that Romney has kept himself very close to Huckabee and is in a position to overtake him if his organization holds through. Given how low turn-out is likely to be in Iowa, Romney's preparation could easily boost him a few points, so keep that in mind when you look at Iowa polls. Odds are against him to win Iowa at this point -- and given McCain's surge I'd rather be the AZ Senator today than Romney in New Hampshire, but both races are still wide open. And given the high number of undecided voters, Romney can still pull either race if he runs a flawless campaign in the next 9 days and if his organizational advantage is as significant as it should be given how much money he's poured in this thing.

3. Mike Huckabee (November ranking: 3)

Huckabee is holding on to his Iowa lead -- and he is now tied for first in national polls. An Iowa victory would probably allow him to carry South Carolina, and he is surging pretty much accross the field in most states. So why he is only third? Two reasons: First, he has been unable to break through in New Hampshire, which means that an alternative will emerge out of New Hampshire -- whether it is McCain or Romney -- and will prevent an early-state sweep that would make Huckabee inevitable.

Second, the GOP establishment despises Huckabee and will everything to stop him at all costs. They have not really cared who they rally against for now, just made sure they bash Huckabee. Whether or not they actually believe Huckabee would be an electoral disaster come November, fiscal conservatives, immigration hawks and groups like the Club for Growth will seek to stop Huckabee before it is too late; and there are so many stories left untouched about Huckabee given how late his surge was that he is bound to get a share of negative coverage from the media in the next two weeks. All of this means that everyone will be out to get him -- and it's rare for a candidate to survive such scrutiny.

That said, if there is any year a candidate can pull that through, it's now. The GOP base clearly loves Huckabee, and his defending the small-guy rhetoric is proving to hit the right note. Evangelicals might not be a majority of the party, but they are a sizable plurality that could wield a huge influence in the case of a fractured race. A bad scenario for Huck would be if the race gets down to a two-personal dual too fast, for he is much likely to pull this through if more candidates are stlil campaigning.

For any of this to matter, of course, Huckabee needs to pull through in Iowa. And while he is still (extraordinarely) leading, his edge is not very big and could be easily overtaken if Romney puts his organizational advantage to good use. And Huckabee has really nowhere to go if he loses the caucuses, making his fate even more dependent on a single state than McCain and Romney, which is what leaves him in third place.

4. Rudy Giuliani (November ranking: 2)

Giuliani's strategy has always been to (1) survive January and (2) win the big states starting with Florida. In the past month, however, he has collapsed in Iowa and New Hampshire (even though he had a huge ad buy in the latter state) and his numbers have melted in national polls and in states like Florida and California -- even New York! Giuliani's fate is out of his hands more than any other candidate: If there is a candidate who wins a few of the early contests, Giuliani is likely toast. Giuliani desperatly needs the field to be very muddy by the time of Florida. That means Huckabee and McCain dividing up the states, and perhaps even with Romney staying somewhat viable! That would, Giuliani's campaign would argue, allow Giuliani's advantage in big states to kick in and Rudy to emerge victorious in Florida, New York, New Jersey, etc.

Trouble is, Rudy's supposedly momentum-proof lead in these states is already gone. And if Rudy spends a month out of the media spotlight because he is not competing in Iowa and hardly in New Hampshire, what tells him that he would remain a viable option by January 29th? If Huckabee and McCain divide up early contests, it looks to me that Florida could very well turn into a two-way fight between them. And as I said in the paragraph on Huckabee, a muddied race with multiple candidates is also Huckabee's dream scenario as he is more likely to get a plurality of the vote thanks to his evangelical base if the field is fractured.

Where could Giuliani suddenly come from to hope for redemption in this late state? I have never understood this, and it's been months now I'm wondering. Perhaps I'm completely wrong about the way momentum works and perhaps Giuliani will prove me completely wrong. But until his campaign offers a convincing explanation as to how he can possibly surive 4 weeks of losses, there is nowhere for Giuliani to be ranked but at the bottom.

5. Fred Thompson (November ranking: 4)

It all starts and ends in Iowa at this point for Fred Thompson. He has collapsed everywhere else, and is nowhere to be found in places he was one strong such as South Carolina or national polls. Many see the potential for a strong third place finish in Iowa, but there is not a lot of evidence for that. The question also remains what he would do with such a third place, even if he got it. He would need other things to happen as well, such as Romney going down in flames and Huckabee looking strong which could precipate Republican panic and the desire to coalesce against a conservative who looks strong and viable -- which is Thompson. But more than anything then, Thompson could play spoiler by siphoning votes away from Huckabee and letting another candidate emerge victorious.


Update: I was asked via e-mail how Ron Paul fits into this, and I realized that it was a huge fault on my part to not even mention him at all. The man, after all, polls solidly above Thompson in New Hampshire and is starting to get some decent numbers other places as well. He is likely to be one of the biggest fundraisers of the fourth quarter, and he can raise more money very easily. But it is undeniable that Ron Paul has no chance whatsoever to win the nomination. Simply put, his stance on the Iraq War alone would guarantee that he never pull off majorities when it would come down to finish things off.

That said, Ron Paul will have a significant impact on the primaries. For one, he will draw votes away from other candidates -- though I'm hard pressed to say who exactly he will be hurting. More importantly, he will come ahead of so-called big candidates in some states (the ones I listed here), (1) showing that he has to be taken seriously and (2) humiliating whoever is behind him. And finally, Ron Paul has a huge opportunity to run as a third-party candidate in the general election and shake things up there. And while Democrats are salivating at the prospect, I really am not sure that Paul would pull more votes from the GOP. While he is clearly more in line with Republicans, there is plenty of evidence that many of his current supporters are coming from the Left.

Media suddenly discovers the flaws of Giuliani's strategy

The press has apparently and finally decided to cover the fact that Rudy Giuliani's late state strategy was political insanity. With 10 days to Iowa, the New York Times prints a front pager today recounting the troubles of the Giuliani campaign and explaining how much Giuliani's decision of skipping the early states is hurting him -- especially as he is now left completely out of the media spotlight as everyone is covering Iowa, a state he conceded months ago.

It has been months that I have been skeptical of Giuliani's strategy and had trouble understanding why he was consistently ranked first in GOP rankings when he was unlikely to get any victory for the first 26 days of voting, until January. So I'm glad everyone else is now catching on.

But it is striking that Giuliani's strategy is being deemed a failure just as there is a small opening for it to work.

For months, Rudy's problem was that Romney looked unbeatable in Iowa and New Hampshire -- and with that he looked set to sweep his way through states like Michigan and even perhaps South Carolina. It was then really hard to understand how in the world Giuliani was hoping to contain Romney's momentum by January 29th or February 5th, even in states like California and New York.

Now at least, Romney's on the verge of being eliminated as he is led in Iowa by Huckabee and forced in a tie in New Hampshire with John McCain. If Romney is out on January 9th with Huckabee and McCain the early victors, how big a door would that be for Giuliani to sneak back in this thing? Huck and McCain would fight it out in Michigan and South Carolina and the race would remain completetly muddied all the way to Florida -- allowing Giuliani to at least be competitive.

This does not mean that Giuliani's strategy was in any way sound. His campaign liked to argue that he has momentum-proof leads in the later states, but it is now clear that his big state strategy is in shambles with his numbers collapsing accross the board. This means that even with a muddied race, Giuliani is not sure of getting Florida or California at all anymore; not to mention that he has been out of the spotlight and is likely to continue not being covered for a while.

At least with the rise of Huck and McCain, the race would become a three-way brawl instead of a one-man sweep and allow Rudy to fight it out. Which is why it's bad for him that the media is jumping on the "Rudy's strategy is dumb" bandwagon just when it is starting to have a chanc. The press is now only covering story-lines relating to his stay at the hospital, his trips to the Hampton or whether he wants to win this at all. Giuliani's hospital stay especially has dominated this week's news cycle; and while candidates' health is important, there doesn't seem to be enough here to merit obsessive coverage.

After glowing with praise for month and without anything in Giuliani's strategy really changing, the media has now decided they don't think Rudy is working at it hard enough and are releasing a barrage of stories to prove it. And given that Giuliani needs the media more than any other candidate since he will not be involved in any actual news-making in Iowa and new Hampshire, this could very well make him sink.

Two new fronts of campaign warfare: Romney v. McCain and Edwards v. Obama

Two showdowns today on the campaign trail illustrate the changing dynamics of the race -- Romney went after McCain and Obama went after Edwards. Two weeks to Iowa, this says a lot about where the race is heading.

(1) Romney v. McCain

The Republican contest, first. Mitt Romney held on to massive leads in Iowa and New Hampshire for months, until Mike Huckabee surged and passed him in Iowa. Romney devoted much of the following two weeks blasting Huckabee every chance he had and firing the first negative ads of the cycle drawing contrasts with the former Arkansas Governor -- especially on immigration. But Romney now finds himself in danger in New Hampshire, where McCain has some stunning momentum. The polls are showing a tightening race, and Giuliani's fading means that there is more potential for McCain to rise -- especially if Romney loses Iowa.

Romney can possibly survive an Iowa loss, but there is no way he can get away with losing New Hampshire as well. The most urgent threat facing his candidacy is no longer Huckabee but McCain, quite remarkable a development for the candidate who appeared so solid three weeks ago. And thus Romney aimed at McCain today -- something candidates very rarely do given how weak McCain has been almost all year:

He voted against the Bush tax cuts — twice. That's failing Reagan 101. Reagan taught ... almost all of us in the Republican Party that lowering taxes would grow the economy and was good for our economy and good for individuals. And I believe that the Republicans are going to nominate a tax-cutter to become president of the United States.

Consider that Romney and McCain's relationship has always been awful and McCain famously despises the former Massachusetts Governor. One of the hottest exchanges in the last GOP debate on CNN was the back-and-forth between these two candidates on waterboarding. And with Romney now taking aim at McCain directly to try to fend him off, you can expect things to degenerate very rapidly between the two candidates.

Needless to say, this is not at all the scenario Romney envisioned for late December. He has spent millions all year to put Iowa and New Hampshire away, and you bet that he would have preferred to spend at least some time this month in states like Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina. McCain and Huckabee have destroyed his well-crafted early-state strategy.

(2) Obama v. Edwards

This one is a bit harder to make sense of. I reported this morning that there was an increasing number of 527s getting involved in Iowa -- though none of them was siding with Obama. Now, Obama is using this issue to raise a contrast with John Edwards -- pointing out that Edwards campaigns as the clean candidate who's pure on campaign finance, which is hardly compatible with use of independent funds. From his campaign:

It's not change when you decry the influence of money in politics but then stay silent when your former campaign manager exploits the biggest loophole in the law to benefit the Edwards' campaign with millions of dollars in ads from an unregulated political fund whose donors are undisclosed.

As I said this morning, most of the 527s playing in Iowa are institutional groups that are key pillars of the Democratic coalition (Emily's List, major unions). The latest controversy erupted over a more opaque "issue advocacy group" (the Alliance for a New America) which appears to be pro-Edwards, so Obama is attacking Edwards without antagonizing groups like unions. However, it is key to understand that (1) we can't imagine Obama would complain much if the SEIU or AFSCME had endorsed him and was now helping him, and (2) Edwards has absolutely no control over what the Alliance for a New America does. In fact, Edwards responded to Obama's challenge by issuing a very strong statement calling for the 527s to "stop these ads" -- though it is unlikely the new group will listen to him.

Beyond the detail of the back-and-forth, the fascinating question is of course what can possibly have led Obama to take aim at Edwards and risk drawing him in the fight that is usually portrayed as a Clinton-Obama showdown. Clearly, the Obama campaign is realizing that Edwards is more than alive in Iowa -- and that it is threatening to siphon away a lot (if not a majority) of the anti-Clinton votes while also undermining Obama's argument that he is the change agent in the race. If anything, Obama's attack confirms that their internal polls are showing Edwards strong -- and perhaps rising -- in the caucuses, and they are worried about Edwards passing them.

Obama is also clearly aware that the Clinton campaign would infinitely prefer losing to Edwards than to them -- since Clinton would have a much more easy time defeating Edwards down-the-line (starting in NH) than Obama. And it has thus become imperative for Obama to fight both candidates at once, which could risk putting Obama at the middle of heated exchanges which he's usuallly been able to avoid.

McCain has the buzz, but can he go all the way?

The big story of the week has to be John McCain's dramatic rise into the top-tier. Yes, the media is playing a big role in this surge, and it is no secret many would love to see McCain reconnect with his 2000 insurgent form. And not necessarily because they are biased in his favor, but because they want a comeback story more than anything else.

And they're getting it. It started with the endorsements of the New Hampshire Union Leader, then the Des Moines Register and the Boston Globe; then came the period in which McCain left Giuliani behind in New Hampshire polls when they were tied for second place -- and continued his rise, with one poll out yesterday showing him tied with Romney. Other polls have the margin narrowing to low single-digits. And then there is the biggest shock -- the Iowa poll that has McCain surging into a strong third place and a second one that has him even passing Romney for second.

Now, the McCain campaign is saying their online donations are up 500 percent in a single week (though it's not that shocking considering they were not raising a lot of money, so a 500% increase probably does not correspond to a jaw-dropping amount -- bu it is still evidence of some movement). And don't forget how McCain polls in general election surveys -- Democrats should be more worried about him than other Republicans at this point (though I still find it doubtful that McCain's age will not have an impact on the race).

Now, the campaign is running a new must-see ad (watch it here) about his time as a POW in Vietnam. The ad starts with video footage of a young prisoner McCain, and goes on to tell the story of one of his captors who drew a cross on the sand to let McCain celebrate Christmas. The catch (courtesy of The Carpetbagger Report) is that McCain claimed in 2004 that he was "sick and tired of re-fighting the Vietnam War" and used that to both blast the Swift Boat ads and the Kerry campaign for bringing up Vietnam in the first place. From a 2004 USA Today article:

McCain said Kerry may have opened himself to criticism by focusing on Vietnam. In his own primary campaign in 2000, McCain said, he didn't have to because everyone knew he'd been there. For Kerry, "it's clearly a tactical or strategic move" to shield him against "charges of being too liberal and soft on defense."

McCain isn't really held to the same standards as everyone else, so don't expect this to be brought up too much. And consider this: Three weeks ago, the GOP race looked like a sure two-race brawl between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Now, Giuliani has lost his massive national lead and appears completely marginalized, and Romney is fighting for his survival. Meanwhile, Huckabee and McCain have a huge buzz -- and, should they split Iowa and New Hampshire, they would spent much of January fighting over Michigan and South Carolina between the two of them.

A remarkable development that underscores, if anything, just how unhappy GOP voters have always been with their candidates. And consider the irony of it all: McCain started the cycle as the very clear front-runner before his position on immigration and the past grudges of the conservative movement made him fade. And then Giuliani emerged as the front-runner, before Thompson, Romney and Huckabee looked like they would clinch it at various times. All attracted the enmity of a big part of the GOP establishment -- all were vetted, and the GOP is liking pretty much none of them. So it's now back to McCain?

Not so fast, of course. McCain is not out of the wilderness just yet. His strategy is entirely predicated on New Hampshire, and as such it is a very dangerous one. If Romney wins Iowa, he probably will clinch NH as well; and even an Iowa loss does not leave Romney out of the New Hampshire race. And more importantly, where does McCain go with a New Hampshire triumph? Can he clinch South Carolina this time around? Sounds doubtful, given the strength of Thompson and Huckabee (who presumably will have won Iowa if it comes to this). And if he doesn't, how does he go on to compete in Florida or the 02/05 states where he has no organization? It worked for Kerry in 2004 -- but Kerry got all the right breaks.

McCain is still not the front-runner for the GOP nomination. And it is mostly out of his hands at this point, since he depends on what happens to other candidates in Iowa where he is not even campaigning at all. But that he is even alive at this point is a testament to how muddied the GOP race is and has been for months.

Last note: As I have noted before the McCain resurgence could have consequences on the Democratic side and hurt Obama who needs the votes of independents in NH.

Romney gains some cred as Tancredo drops out, endorses him

The presidential field lost a candidate today, as Rep. Tom Tancredo dropped out of the Republican race. Tancredo never pulled more than 2% or 3% in national or states polls, but he had a significant factor on the contest nonetheless.

He was a one-issue candidate, obsessed with illegal immigration; some people expected him to at least have some momentum given the importance of immigration for many GOP voters -- but he apparently was a bit too singe-issue focused even for the immigration-focused GOP electorate. But he forced the rest of the Republican field to move dramatically to the Right on immigration by making the discussion more emotional and more intense. At a recent debate, Tancredo even remarked at the closure of the discussion on immigration that all the candidates on stage sounded like him -- which was certainly not the case a year ago.

Why the sudeen departure from the race when it wasn't like Tancredo ever had any hope of pulling this off? Tancredo cited one himself: The rise of Mike Huckabee. Tancredo said that Huck was much too soft on immigration issues, especially given in his tenure as Arkansas Governor. And remember: this is the issue that most of the negative attacks against Huckabee have focused on in Iowa -- including Romney's first negative ad and Thompson's mailer on "Huckabee University Welcomes Illegal Immigrants."

In exiting the race, Tancredo endorsed Mitt Romney. This should not move a whole lot of numbers in Romney's direction -- but it could definitely help him get 1-2% of voters directly, which is very enviable in a close race like this one. And there is then a second more important benefit: Romney has sought to attack both Giuliani and Huckabee on immigration issues, though Rudy has fought back pointing to Romney's own soft record -- which could have led some immigration voters to go to the more pure Fred Thompson. Tancredo definitely gives Romney some credibility and could be a huge help down the line in convincing those worried that Romney might not be conservative enough that he is one of them.

Huckabee against all, and all against Huckabee

A fascinating dynamic is unfolding in the Republican primary: Huckabee is taking on the establishment. Usually, GOP primaries anoint a front-runner early and coronate him months before the voting start -- making it impossible for challengers who try to take on a more unusual tone from contesting the race and demolishing them if they try (think McCain in 2000).

But for the first time in recent memory, the GOP field is wide open and has no front-runner; in fact, every candidate now in the race has been front-runner or immediate runner-up at some point, and the voters desperately want a viable conservative candidate which they are not finding.

Now Huckabee has long been known as the most socially conservative of the major candidates. But here is something we are not used to seeing: a socially conservative candidate who is directly part of the movement. As a former pastor, Huckabee is not just "talking to" the evangelical crowd and that's making many GOPers -- who always kept the Religious Right at a minimal distance from the center of power -- panic.

And Huckabee is playing on this anti-establishment message, trying to rally the evangelical vote by pitting himself against the arrogant quasi-secular elite of the Northeast. And he uses tones that we very rarely see in a Republican candidate! Read these recent comments -- do they sound like a Republican to you?

The Wall Street to Washington axis--this corridor of power--is absolutely frantically against me. But out there in America, the reason that we're number one in the polls is because I'm the guy who doesn't have some off-shore mailbox and bank account in the Caymans hiding my money. I'm the guy who worked my way up through it. And there are a whole lot of people in America who believe that the president ought to be a servant of the people, and ought not to be elected to the ruling class.

Such a strategy would never work in normal times -- and the GOP establishment would go in full destruction mode. Now, they are in destruction mode again, but there is no front-runner they can help. Giuliani is fading, Thompson is nowhere, and McCain is getting stronger but only has New Hampshire. That leaves Romney, who is electable and conservative (depending on the year), but that would require a concerted decision to rally behind him -- which is hard to do when the field is this fractured.

So could Huckabee carry his anti-establishment message to the nomination? It would be fascinating if John Edwards and Obama (though Obama's message is not anti-establishment, he is taking on the establishment -- which is a big difference) failed to do so in the party that usually is more kind to such candidates, and the GOP went there. Though it would not be surprising: The Democratic field has an establishment figure that the GOP lacks right now.

The TNR's Noam Scheiber very interestingly speculated yesterday that evangelicals might be incensed by the treatment Huckabee is receiving, and might realize that they are to help the GOP but never actually get to power -- resulting in some major backlash. That could indeed be true since Huckabee is very much being demolished for being too religious (whereas if Obama loses it will not be because he was black); but there's an easy way for the Republican nominee to solve that: Choose Huckabee as the VP nominee.

But that could have seemed a plausible scenario a few weeks ago. This stretch of events has revealed how much the GOP establishment despises Huckabee -- and can he still be a viable VP contender after that?

Presidential polls coming in from all directions

I have been posting more slowly than usual the past 24 hours, and as a result I am left with a deluge of great polls that I have not yet talked about. So here's my best comprehensive attempt to list this morning's polls -- and there are a lot to list since many institutes decided to just deliver lots of state numbers today.

• Gallup's national numbers

I had already posted the Republican primary numbers yesterday to indicate Huckabee's stalling. Gallup also came out with general election numbers and a survey from the Democratic primary nationally:

• Among Democrats, Clinton comes in at 45% followed by Obama at 27%and Edwards at 15%. This is an improvement for Hillary who stood at 39% two weeks ago.


• In the general election, Clinton and Obama win all 6 match-ups. But Barack is much stronger than Hillary.
• Against Giuliani, Clinton wins 49-48 and Obama 51-45. Against Huckabee, it's 53-44 Clinton and 53-42 Obama. And against Romney, it's 52-46 Clinton only, and 57-39 Obama.

I don't much faith in the electability difference here, as we could point to many polls that have the reverse effect nationally (though, as I have explained before, there is more consistency in finding Obama stronger in the West and Clinton in the South). The bottom line is that Democrats are starting ahead in this election, but cleraly not by huge margins.

• Rasmussen's flurry of state polls: OH, MO and NJ

Rasmussen came out with a few great presidential polls this morning:

• In Ohio, Republicans have leads but it's all within the margin of error.Giuliani is ahead of Clinton 44% to 42% and of Obama 43% to 40%. Clinton and Romney are tiedat 43%.
• But it's Huckabee who runs best: 44% to 40% against Hillary, and 45% to 39% against Obama.


• In Missouri, Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 45% to 39%, and Obama leads by 1%. But both Democrats lose against Huckabee, 45% to 43% for Clinton and 45% to 41% for Hillary.
• The explanation: Giuliani's favorability rating is the lowest of the four candidates, at 45%, under Clinton and Obama who are at 52 and 51%. What is happening to Rudy Giuliani in the heartland?


• Finally in New Jersey, Clinton is strong but Obama has difficulty putting Giuliani away: Clinton leads Rudy 50% to 37%, but Obama is statistically tied 42% to 41%. This is coherent with many other polls we have seen that Rudy would make the Tri-State area competitive if the Democratic candidate is not Clinton.
• Both candidates comfortably lead Huckabee: 49% to 30% for Obama and 51% to 34% for Clinton.

None of these numbers are very shocking: Missouri and Ohio are close, and New Jersey clearly leans Democratic. Missouri's slight Democratic lean in most polls taken this fall is probably the biggest surprise, as the GOP was boasting of having put the state away in past cycles -- clearly that is not the case, and Democrats have a great chance of winning the state. After all, they certainly have electoral college scenarios in which they get to a majority with Missouri and without Ohio.

• PPP: North Carolina is competitive

Public Policy Polling came out with a general election and a Senate poll out of North Carolina today:

• In the presidential race, John Edwards is the only Democrat tobeat Republicans in his home state: He beats Giuliani 48% to 43%, Huckabee 50% to 43%, and demolishes Romney 52% to 40%./li>/li>
• Giuliani leads Clinton 46% to 39% and Obama 46% to 43%. Huckabee leads Clinton 46% to 42% and Obama 47% to 42%. And Romney leads Clinton 46-42 and Obama 45-42%.

In the presidential race, Clinton had come in stronger in a previous North Carolina poll, but the Democrats are clearly running stronger in the South than they were 4 years ago. Edwards did not do much for Kerry in 2004, so it's interesting that polls are finding him this much stronger today.

• SUSA delivers too: IA and MN

SUSA also came out with two state polls from Iowa and from Minnesota:

• In Iowa, Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 42%, Romney 48% to 45%. She's only up 46-45 against Huck and behind 46-45 against McCain.
• Obama runs much much better than Clinton: 55% to 36% against Rudy, 51-39 against Romney, 52-39 against Huck, and 51-39 against McCain.


• In Minnesota, it's Clinton who runs much much better: She demolishes Giuliani 53-40, Romney 58-36, Huck 53-41. Her lead is within single-digits only against McCain, but still far ahead 51% to 43%.
• Obama, on the other hand, trails Giuliani 48% to 44% and McCain 50% to 41%. He is timidly ahead of Romney 48% to 42% and Huck 47% to 42%.

This is the second month in a row that SUSA shows Obama miles ahead of Clinton in Iowa -- which could be significant given that it is the state in which Obama is the best known at this point after months of caucus campaigning. But by that token, Iowa has always been the state where Clinton has had the most difficulty in the primary campaign, which could also account for her weakness in the general election.

And don't forget that IA went red by a point or two in 04 and MN went blue by a small margin; but both states have long histories of being Democratic. So it looks like 2008 could see them both return solidly to the blue column -- though depending on the candidates the GOP can hope to make them competitive.

Republicans:Huckabee's surge might be stalling and Giuliani's 'big state strategy' is in shambles

We have gotten a staggering number of jaw-dropping polls these past 2 weeks in which Huckabee kept shooting a bit more up every time. But polls released today suggest that Huckabee's momentous surge might have finally stabilized.

First up is Rasmussen's poll from the South Carolina primary:

• Huckabee and Romney are at 23% each, with Thompson at 12% and McCain at 12%. Giuliani comes in fifth at 11%.
• Two weeks ago, Huckabee was stunningly 7% ahead of Romney and Thompson.

Clearly, South Carolina will emerge as the key battleground between Huckabee and Romney should they both hold on to their respective leads in Iowa and in New Hampshire. But South Carolina was the state other than Iowa in which Huckabee had the biggest surge -- explainable in part by the large number of evangelicals who vote here and who are Huckabee's natural base (he gets 42% of evangelicals and 36% among those who say that a candidate's faith is very important, but only 10% among those who say it is not important).

Another sign of stalling in the latest national Gallup poll. In the last one, Huckabee had surged to second place -- but nothing has moved since then. Gallup finds Giuliani ahead with 27%, followed by a cluster for second place with Huck at 16%, and the three other Top Five members tied at 14%.

But there are other surveys out today that still register some shocking progressions on Huckabee's part. SUSA came out with primary polls from Florida and California:

• In Florida, the race has tightened considerably in the past two weeks: Giuliani is ahead with 29%, Huckabee at 24%, and Romney at 20%. McCain's at 10% and Thompson at 8%.
• In California, its Giuliani on top 28% to Huckabee 20%. Romney is at 16%,. McCain at 14% and and Thompson at 13%.

Put these two polls together with this morning's New York primary survey and one thing is evident: Rudy Giuliani's path to the nomination is slowly but surely being closed off. The Giuliani camp believes that it will remain competitive in the February 5th states no mattter what happens in January; and for a long time Rudy posted huge leads in states like California and Florida (which votes on 01/29). But with Huckabee and Romney both moving up considerably, Giuliani no longer has a double-digits lead anywhere. And if he weakening now, before losing the early states and possibly coming in fourth or fifth in some of them, can he hope to hold on until January 29th?

I've always been skeptical of Giuliani's chances and his big state strategy; there have been too many examples of a candidate with momentum jumping up phenomenally overnight after some early victory. But the latest waves of polls that show Rudy's lead in big state eroding, Giuliani now has to make a statement somewhere before Florida -- perhaps New Hampshire, or Michigan?

In the backdrop of all of this, the ad wars are intensifying between the GOP candidates. Mitt Romney started airing a second negative ad against Mike Huckabee today in Iowa, this one about crime contrasting Romney's supposedly tough record, with Huckabee tendency to grant pardons, including to convicted murderers. This is obviously a reference to the case of Dumond, a convicted rapist Huckabee pardoned (or rather he lobbied the parole board to get a pardon), though Romney does not go there directly (yet?). Also interesting is the ad's assertion that Huckabee has pardoned more criminals than the three previous governors combined -- these three previous governor includes Bill Clinton, though most ad viewers probably will not make that connection, so I wonder why Romney didn't draw it out more explicitly. You can watch the ad here.

In response, Huckabee is going all positive... and Christian. His latest ad (which you can view here) features the candidate in front of a Christmas tree wishing Iowans a "magnificent Christmas." Huckabee goes on to say that, "What really matters isthe celebration of the birth of Christ and being with our family and our friends." As Christian an ad as I have seen in politics.

And I confess that I am puzzled by Huckabee's strategy here: He has pretty much locked up the evangelical vote already in Iowa and has been facing concerns that he is too one-dimensional a candidate, angering fiscal conservatives especially. That he would choose to ignore these issues and go for the feel-good religiosity implies that he believes that evangelicals are a big enough bloc that they can deliver victory, which has not been the case historically.