Non-Senate down-ballot: Who will beat Don Young first?

In my most recent House ratings, I described the disastrous state of the New York Republican Party and its inability to truly contest the three seats Democrats picked up in 2006 and that were supposed to be at the top of the Republican wish-list. I confess that I had not paid enough attention to NY-20, where the GOP believes it has found a strong candidate to take on Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in a district Bush won by 8% in 2004. They are running former state Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell who has the advantage of being very wealthy and thus having the means to self-fund his candidacy.

Gillibrand is one of the House's best fund-raisers (perhaps even the freshman Democrat who has raised the most) and thus Treadwell's wealth will not allow him to swamp her with his spending, but it will come in handy to keep tabs on her own spending and keep the race competitive. In fact, Treadwell is already running ads, months before his party's primary. This is early for a House challenger to go up on air, and Treadwell is clearly intending to send the message that he ought to be taken seriously and that he will have the resources necessary to compete -- whether or not the NRCC has any funds left to come to his rescue.

Also today, we got three House polls about two districts:

• In AK-AL, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz beats incumbent Don Young 58% to 38%! But Young also trails in his party's primary against Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell, 37% to 34%. In a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up, the Republican leads 43% to 38%.
  

• In KY-03, a SUSA poll shows that Rep. Yarmuth trounces former GOP Rep. Northup (whom he narrowly defeated in 2006) 57% to 40%!
  

• In response, the Northup campaign released an internal poll also taken early June that shows the Democrat leading 51% to 43%.

It looks certain that Young will no longer represent Alaska come January 2009. The only question seems to be who will beat him first? If Republicans keep him as their candidate, Democrats will surely capture the seat. There have been other polls that have shown Young trailing Berkowitz by double-digits. But if Parnell, backed by the Club for Growth, manages to become his party's nominee, he will have transformed this lean takeover seat into a much better deal for Republicans. It is rare for the Club for Growth to be in a position to help the party by toppling an incumbent (remember PA-Sen in 2004 and RI-Sen in 2006), and it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

Yet, it does look like Alaska voters have gone sour on the GOP generally, as the latest Senate poll shows Stevens struggling and we have seen a few surveys with Obama surprisingly close to John McCain. Don't forget that the corruption scandal that is sinking Young and Stevens has also endangered many other Anchorage GOP lawmakers and, while Parnell is not associated to the investigation, there were plenty of examples in 2006 of "cleaner" Republicans being tarnished by the mere association with the corrupt incumbent (see OH-18, for instance).

As for KY-03, there is a reason the Northup campaign did not release its internal poll until SUSA found even worse numbers. Republicans believe that Yarmuth's victory in 2006 was an accident, despite the fact that this is the only Kentucky district to have voted for John Kerry over George Bush. Northup's decision to run for her old seat was seen as a major victory for Republicans, as the moderate former representative has the name recognition and profile necessary to take back this district. Yet, the fact that she cannot hold Yarmuth under 50% despite the fact that her own name recognition is probably as good (if not better) than her rivals has to be worrisome for her campaign.

Finally, two gubernatorial polls bring good news for both parties:

• In Missouri, Rasmussen finds that Democratic Attorney General is increasing his lead over his two Republican opponents, leading Rep. Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman by 20% and 22% respectively.
  

• In Indiana, however, Republican Governor Daniels has opened a 51% to 35% lead over Jill Long Thompson according an Indiana Legislative Insight poll.

Both seats are currently held by Republicans, and both are heavily contested. This is in fact the first poll released since Long Thompson won the Democratic primary (by the thinnest of margins) and it contradict the previous surveys that found a toss-up race with the incumbent greatly endangered. We will have to see other surveys to know whether this one can be classified as an outlier or whether the election is swinging towards Daniels.

As for Missouri, it is not surprising to see Nixon ahead. After all, the Democrat is well-known statewide and who has been campaigning for this position since 2004. But the huge margin by which he is now leading in numerous polls testifies to Missouri's swing towards the Democratic Party and is reminiscent of other unexpectedly easy wins that Democrats enjoyed in open seat races in 2006 (Minnesota's senatorial race between Klochubar and Kennedy and Colorado's gubernatorial race). Nixon's increasingly comfortable lead is a very good sign for Barack Obama's chances in the Show Me State.

Down-the-ballot: Franken wins DFL endorsement, AK-AL gets heated

Mike Ciresi must be regretting that he dropped out of the Minnesota Senate race for he certainly could have benefited from the series of bad news Al Franken has been suffering through. More, in any case, than Professor and activist Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer managed to as he attempted to make the most of the doubts many harbor towards Franken. The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party convention was held yesterday and today but Nelson-Pallmeyer did not carry enough weight to truly endanger Franken's hold on the nomination. In his speech at the convention, Franken sought to address the criticism head-on in an effort to convince delegates he remained electable in November: "It kills me that things I said and wrote sent a message to some of my friends in this room and people in this state that they can’t count on me to be a champion for women, a champion for all Minnesotans." Franken was also helped by the backing of the DFL's Feminist Caucus, which came days after Planned Parenthood blasted Franken for his sexism.

The former comedian was endorsed on the first ballot by 62% of delegates. Franken now moves on to the primary, organized in September. The candidate who is endorsed at the DFL convention traditionally enjoys an easy primary ride as rival candidates typically withdraw and respect the convention's endorsement. Nelson-Pallmeyer did just that today as he announced his support for Franken after the result of the vote were announced. When he was still running, Mike Ciresi had also pledged to respect the will of the convention.

Thus, Franken just took a decisive step towards representing his party against Senator Norm Coleman. It is however technically still possible for a Democrat to file against him in the September primary, and the probability of that could increase if the GOP keeps up its slow trickle of oppo research and if figures of the Democratic universe (like Rep. McCollum) continue to criticize Franken and perhaps even hold back from fully supporting him. Yet, such a candidate would face very long odds given that it is already late in the game, that Franken has raised millions of dollars that would go a long way towards defeating any underfunded primary rival and that Franken is likely to have the backing of the state establishment after today's convention. With the Coleman-Franken race now much more set, we will soon see whether Republicans can successfully continue to put Franken on the defensive and whether they have many more aces up their sleeve.

Meanwhile, the Republican primary in Alaska's sole House race is getting heated as Club for Growth has endorsed Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell in his challenge to incumbent Rep. Don Young. Club for Growth, which has enjoyed a good record in primary races this year, claimed Young is the "poster child for what has gone wrong with the Republican Party in Washington” while Parnell is a "solid conservative." Club for Growth can do a lot for a candidate in a primary race and the conservative organization is especially committed to defeating an incumbent or two every cycle to bolster its reputation as a force to be reckoned with and to signal to moderate Republicans that their days are numbered (though the two most high-profile primary challenges the Club has funded, against Sen. Specter and Sen. Chaffee, both narrowly fell short). The Club's support should ensure that Parnell has the funds and organization to make his challenge to Young truly competitive.

This is actually worrisome news for Democrats. While an incumbent facing a primary and a seat opening up are generally good news for the opposing party, this is a case in which the Democrats' hopes of picking-up the district are largely related to Young's ethical troubles and the corruption allegations he is being investigated for. Given that Alaska is a very Republican state, Parnell would start the general election favored if he were to defeat Young as he would not have the baggage that has made the current incumbent an underdog against a very solid Democratic candidate.

House diary: Congressional Republicans are in panic mode

House Republicans have had a tough few days ever since Travis Childers prevailed in the MS-01 special election by eight points despite the district's heavy Republican lean. Dire predictions as to the partys' November prospects are accumulating, new lists of vulnerable Republican districts are being drawn and NRCC Chairman Tom Cole facing threats of being ousted over complaints about his performance and meager fundraising.

In a remarkable statement on Tuesday night, Cole did not try to spin the results and called on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught. He followed that up by admitting that the problem was the Republican party rather than particular mistakes that were being made. Meanwhile, former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis, who is retiring from his Northern Virginia House seat this year (Democrats are favored to pick it up), sent members of the Republican caucus a 20-page memo about what the GOP needs to do to save itself.

As for the particular situation in Mississippi, Childers will now have to fight for his re-election in November. Of the three special elections Democrats have won, this is the only one in which the Republican candidate himself was not deeply flawed which makes it possible for Greg Davis to come back and win this in November considering it's a presidential year and turnout will be increased accordingly. But Childers large victory in a situation of increased turnout -- including in white counties -- makes him the favorite to win re-election in November. And national Republicans are unlikely to throw any more money at this race; consider that they already spent one-fifth of their cash on hand in this race.

The Republican debacle in MS-01 also means that very few Republican open seats are safe from Democrats in November and it open puts seats like Steve Pearce's NM-02 and Terry Everett's AL-02 on the map. Pearce and Everett have both retired months ago but their seats were not taken that seriously by national strategists. Both are very conservative districts and will be so in a presidential year. But if Foster, Cazayoux and Childers can win three specials in a row with the NRCC heavily investing to help defend their seats, how will the GOP defend these other open seats when national Republicans will not have $1,3 million to spend on each race.

Meanwhile, GOP panic is extending to other seats that are looking increasingly difficult starting with Alaska's at large district, another very red district. Incumbent Don Young is facing a corruption investigation (along with the rest of the state GOP) and Democrats believe their day has come after a few cycles of Alaska heartbreakers. A new poll shows just how endangered Young is:

• Research 2000 finds Young trailing Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 50% to 40%. Their poll a few months ago showed Berkowitz up by 8%.
  

For any incumbent to be under 50% is already a troubling sign, but to be trailing by double-digits is just bad news. Past cycles have shown that no race can be taken for granted by Democrats in Alaska, but this is obviously encouraging.

Meanwhile, the situation continues to look unclear in NY-13. After the DUI/sex scandal broke out last week, the media quickly reported that Rep. Vito Fossella would resign or at least announce his retirement within days. But signs quickly pointed to the fact that Fossella had no intention to do that. It now looks increasingly unlikely that Fossella is looking to exit; he is delaying speaking to the media, and former Senator D'Amato is now saying that Fossella will not resign, run for re-election and win. There is some speculation that Fossella might be delaying his decision to avoid a special election (I suggested a few days ago that I don't think this is grounds for a resignation).

Meanwhile -- and this is the one good news for the GOP in this post -- the prospect of an open seat in NY-13 is splitting Democrats! The district is split between Brooklyn and Staten Island (mostly in the latter) and Democrats are now engaged in a rather silly exchange about it with Staten Island Democrats claiming that their candidate has to be from the island to have any chance of winning and Brooklyn Democrats taking offense at that. How important this fight is will depend on what Fossella decides to do, as a SUSA poll showed that he still has a very good approval rating.

Also, expect new House ratings within the next week.

Senate polls: Good news for Shaheen and MN stays a toss-up

After the avalanche of presidential polls over the past two days, Friday was marked by the release of a few interesting down-the-ballot surveys which help us assess the state of congressional races now that the season for recruitments and retirements is coming to an end. We first get two surveys from New Hampshire:

• A new ARG poll shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Senator Sununu 47% to 33%, including 63% of independents.
  

• Rasmussen confirms the Democrat's lead but pits it at a slightly smaller 49% to 41%. The margin has not changed in the past month.

New Hampshire has truly become the Santorum-Casey of the 2008 cycle, with the well-known Democratic challenger taking a lead from the very first polls released of the race and keeping a very stable advantage no matter the circumstances. ARG's previous poll showed a Sununu lead in December, but that has proven to be an outlier with numerous polls before and now also after showing Shaheen clearly ahead.

This explains why New Hampshire is ranked so high in my latest Senate Rankings. But you might remember that Santorum did have a brief period in the fall of 2006 where it seemed like he might come-back, though he was too far gone to capitalize on that. That suggests that Sununu can certainly hope to tighten things up by November.

The Senate election that seems guaranteed to go down the wire is Minnesota's probable match-up against Senator Coleman and Democrat Al Franken:

• A new Rasmussen poll shows Coleman edging Franken 48% to 46%. This is actually a slight improvement since February, where Franken was up 49% to 46%.
  

There were a string of polls in February showing Franken with a small lead against Coleman, but the Rasmussen survey is the second (after a poll released Monday) with Coleman reversing that trend. Given the demographics of Minnesota and Coleman's narrow, disputed and controversial election back in 2002, it is unlikely that Franken can come to pull significantly ahead. But every passing month (and every passing poll) should reassure the DSCC that Franken is the real deal. While many doubted whether he could escape his comedian roots to be a serious contender, Franken is holding the incumbent under 50% and barely ahead.

The third Senate poll I want to cite comes to ask from Georgia, courtesy of Rasmussen. Saxby Chambliss's re-election isn't very contested, and no one is for now expecting it to rise to the level of a competitive race. Rasmussen's poll shows Chambliss leading his closest competitor, Dale Cardwell, 52% to 36%.

Finally, an interesting congressional survey was released today in Alaska. It is an internal poll for the campaign of Democrat Metcalfe released by the polling company Hart:

• Jack Metcale leads Rep. Young 45% to 37%. The poll also shows Young trailing a generic Democrat 41% to 34%.

Democrats believe they have a great chance of picking up AK-AL, but most consider Ethan Berkowitz their best chance of doing so. There have been numerous polls released in the past few months showing Berkowitz leading Young, and the Metcalfe campaign apparently was feeling itself left out and wanted to jump back in the game proving that their candidate, too, could beat Young. Note that most of the incumbent's troubles come from his ethical issues; if Young goes down in the heated primary he is facing, odds will get much longer for whichever Democrat wins the nomination.

House diary: Dems hoping to pick-up red districts

Boosted by their success in IL-14's special election, Democrats are now looking in the direction of more districts that are traditionally Republican. And first on their list is Alaska's at-large seat, where Rep. Don Young has been embroiled in a corruption investigation that is threatening the state's entire Republican party. A December poll showed Young trailing his top-tier Democratic opponent Berkowitz.

Now, Young has attracted major Republican competition in the form of a second primary opponent. The state's lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell (whose dad Young defeated in the 1980s) has announced he is running against the incumbent. Young could be saved by his adversaries dividing the anti-incumbent vote, but Parnell's entrance guarantees that there will a tough primary. This is also a rare case in which Democrats would be better off running against the incumbent, so they want Young to survive the primary: The main reason they are competitive in this red state is the incumbent's ethical troubles.

In IL-14, meanwhile, Democrats still have to hold the seat in November to keep it for 2 more years, and Republicans know an incumbent is never as vulnerable as in his first re-election fight. Unfortunately for the GOP, they are stuck with the same candidate they had in the special election (Oberweis) when one of the main reasons they lost it in the first place was Oberweis's divisive image. Now Robert Novak is reporting that Republicans are trying to get their candidate to withdraw so they can attempt to conquer the seat back with a stronger candidate, but it is very unlikely that Oberweis will yield. After all, this is probably his last attempt to win an office after a series of failed elections.

Finally, Republicans will have to defend 4 special elections in May: Louisiana's 1st and 6th districts, Mississippi's 1st and 3rd districts. The runoffs of primaries will be held in the coming weeks, so we will have to wait to get the exact picture of the special elections. But we can already says that LA-01 and MS-03 are too conservative to be in any way competitive, and the Democrats are not fielding candidates in any state to contest the seats. MS-01 is also probably out of reach -- though less dramatically so.

That leaves us with LA-06, whose incumbent (Rep. Baker) resigned from his elected office to make money as a lobbyist. The Republican candidate (probably state Rep. Jenkins) will start as the favorite, but Democrats believe they can create a surprise here depending on the outcome of their primary. It goes without saying that a Democratic pick-up in any of these four
districts would be a huge shock for the GOP, especially when coupled with the loss of IL-14, and it would create major turbulences in the NRCC.

Afternoon polls: Democrats strong in Alaska and in the Tri-State area

• GOP in trouble in Alaska
  

Research 2000 just released a poll commissioned by Daily Kos, and it has some awful news for Alaska Republicans:

• In the at-large House race, incumbent GOP Rep. Don Young trails Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 49% to 42%.
• In the Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Begich leads incumbent GOPer Ted Stevens 47% to 41%.

Alaska Republicans have been facing massive corruption investigations that has already endangered many state-level politicians. Don Young and Ted Stevens are both involved and under investigation as well, and fresh details and allegations are regularly exposed in the media. That is bad for any incumbent, even for someone like Stevens who has been serving in the Senate for decade (he is the longest-serving Republican). The investigation has been picking up in recent months, with executives acknowledging that their employees had worked on renovations of Stevens's house that was raided earlier in the summer by the FBI.

In House race, Berkowitz is officially in the race -- and this is the third poll out of three that has him leading (though I believe it is the first non-internal survey). In the Senate race, Begich is not yet a candidate, but there are indications he is looking to get in: It appears that Begich will not officially declare a run before the spring, but that he will announce he is not running by the end of 2007 to let someone else go for it if he does not want to. So we will essentially know what the situation is in the coming three weeks -- though Stevens retiring could slightly improve GOP chances still. I have rated the seat "Lean retention" and ranked it 9th for now in my latest Senate rankings.

• Rasmussen polls the Tri-State region
  

Rasmussen released two new polls over the week-end from New Jersey and Connecticut pitting a three way race involving Mike Bloomberg. Their conclusion: Bloomberg is firmly in double-digits, and his strength depends on who the candidates of both parties are.

• In New Jersey, Clinton gets 46% to Giuliani's 38% and Bloomberg's 12%. But if the candidates are Obama and Huckabee, it's 42% to 27% for the Democrat, with Bloomberg at 18%.
• In Connecticut, Clinton gets 45% to 36% for Giuliani and 12% for Bloomberg. It's 40-29-18 if Obama and Huckabee are tested.

The numbers are not really comparable since Bloomberg surely benefits from Huckabee's much lower name recognition in the second set of numbers, as well as from the fact that the Tri-state area is basically home territory for Clinton and Giuliani. But Bloomberg definitely has the potential and room to grow. This also confirms that Giuliani would make the coastal states more competitive than they have been in recent cycles but that Clinton would still have the clear upper-hand, something that is confirmed by most other polls.

Morning polls: Clinton holds on to shrinking leads in Iowa, New Hampshire

• Clinton first in what is essentially a tied race

Rasmussen just came out with a new poll from Iowa, and it has the three major candidates within 3 points of one another! Any way you turn the numbers, it is a complete toss-up.

• Hillary Clinton is at 27%, followed by Barack Obama at 25% and John Edwards at 24%. Richardson also gets in the double-digits at 10%, with Biden at 4%.
But in what is a very worrisome statistic for Clinton and a great one for Edwards, he is the top second choice of Iowa Democrats (28%). Obama is next at 18%, Clinton at 16% and Richardson at 15%. We know how important these numbers are in Iowa since many voters will have to caucus for a second choice.
• Rasmussen proposes many combinations that all go to see that the race could go for any of these 3 candidates: Among voters who are definitely supporting their candidate, Clinton holds at 27%, Obama at 25% while Edwards is a bit weaker at 22%; Edwards takes the lead among those who have caucused before, and Obama is slightly ahead among those who are certain they will go to vote on January 3rd.

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen's Iowa poll had Clinton ahead with 29% followed by Edwards's 25% and Obama's 24%. That result was a drop from Clinton's 33-22 lead in the October survey. Clearly, the Iowa race has tightened considerably in the past few weeks. The one reason why Clinton must be happy that she held on to a slight lead here is that this will prevent the narrative of Clinton's collapse of continuing to spread as it started to after last week's Washington Post poll.

• Clinton, Romney ahead in New Hampshire

A new Suffolk University poll was just released today and it has Clinton and Romney ahead in double-digits:

• Among Democrats, Clinton gets 34% of the vote, ahead of Obama's 22%. The last Suffolk poll had Clinton up 18%, but it was taken in June, so it is useless to use this to judge trendlines.
• Among Republicans, Romney is ahead significantly, 34% to 20% for Rudy Giuliani. McCain is weaker than usual at 13%, with Ron Paul at 8% and Huckabee at 7%. Fred Thompson managed to beat his record of New Hampshire... dropping down at 2%!

Needless to say that Thompson would be out of the race overnight if he gets 2% on January 8th! Romney should be satisfied to see he is holding to such a big lead with a little more than a month to go before voting; is 14% a big enough edge for him to stay on top it if he loses Iowa? His one advantage is that his loss would mean a Huckabee victory, and thus even if Romney goes down it is unclear whether Giuliani would get any boost and overtake him -- so it will not be the same scenario as Kerry's surge in 2004.

As for Democrats, this is in the smaller end of the Clinton leads, and she used to be up by much more in New Hampshire. The same question holds for her that I just asked for Romney: Is a double-digit lead large enough for her to come out with a win here even if she loses in Iowa?

• Young still in danger in Alaska

However unlikely it appeared a few months ago that Alaska's at large seat would become a top battleground, it appears that Don Young's involvement in the corruption scandal that is rocking the state is putting him in big trouble in next year's election. A new poll out today has him trailing his two Democratic challengers: 45% to 37% against Diana Benson, and 50% to 35% against Ethan Berkowitz.

This is an internal poll conducted for Diane Benson's campaign -- and it is interesting that Benson, the 2006 nominee for the seat, chose to release it given that she runs a bit weaker than Berkowitz. With most commentators paying more attention to Berkowitz, Benson is trying to show that she is also in a great position to beat Young and she should be given a chance. And as always with internal polls, take them with a great of salt, as they are not necessarily indicative of what independent polls might find. But this is the second poll that has Young trailing, so we have to look at this seat as a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats.

Democrats land two new House candidates... and look ahead to 2010!

Exciting news for House Democrats on this Thursday morning, as they are putting two new House seats in play by recruiting some strong challengers. The first is the Alaska at large seat, held by Don Young. The entire Alaska congressional delegation has been hit by strong allegations of unethical misconduct and is under investigation, so that Democrats smell blood and want to take advantage of the GOP's troubles.

Ethan Berkowitz, the state's House Minority Leader from 1999 to 2006, has announced his bid to take on Young. Berkowitz lost a race for lieutenant governor in 2006, and Democrats believe he could cause real trouble for Young who only got 56% in his last race, and that was before the allegations against him really picked up. Berkowitz will have a primary fight, however, as former state party chair Jake Metcalfe and Diane Benson, Young's 2006 opponent, are already in the race.

And in Florida, Democrats are moving in on Rep. Tom Feeney, who is under investagation also for his links to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Dems have been pressuring Feeney for a while, hoping to force a retirement by running ads against him early, and they now have a candidate they believe can take Feeney down: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. The DCCC alluded to a poll taken showing the race to be very competitive, but did not release the numbers (which is really cheap... what is the point of touting such a poll if we cannot confirm it?).

Finally, Democrats are very excited about a Rasmussen poll of... a 2010 Senate race. It shows John McCain would have trouble winning re-election in Arizona if Democrats nominate Governor Napolitano to run against him. McCain trails her by only 1% (46-45). A similar poll taken a few months ago had McCain much further down. This is naturally completly meaningless, since who knows what the political situation will be in 2010, but could numbers like this push McCain to retire if he fails in his presidential bid? In more interesting numbers, the poll also shows Republicans favored to win the state in the presidential election:

• Rudy Giuliani defeats Hillary Clinton 48% to 39%.
• McCain wins 52% to 40%. The fact that he does only marginally better than Giuliani is certainly a sign of weakness of McCain... certainly confirmed by the new ARG primary poll from Arizona in which McCain comes in first, but with a very pale 26%.