Down-ballot: House reaches record number of female members, as Carson gets safer and Sununu weaker

Unwilling to finish serving his term after failing to win his party's nomination in MD-04, Rep. Albert Wynn resigned last month, setting up a special election that was held last Tuesday. In a heavily Democratic district, Wynn's victor Donna Edwards trounced Republican candidate Peter James with 81% of the vote, making her the 75th female member of the House. This breaks the record -- but the proportion remains at a shockingly low 17% (it's 16% in the Senate). Edwards is much more progressive than Wynn, who had been angering the Left with a number of votes that might be necessary for a congressman representing a very conservative area but certainly not for this district's representative.

In IN-07, meanwhile, Rep. Andre Carson feels safer today as state Rep. Jon Elrod announced he would give up on his congressional candidacy and run for re-election instead. The two just faced off in March in a special election to replace Carson's deceased grand-mother. While Elrod was highly-touted by the NRCC and while the GOP believed he could contest this Dem-leaning state that was unexpectedly close these past few cycles, national Republicans were unable to come to his rescue and Elrod went down to defeat by 11%. Still a young politician, Elrod faced even lower-odds of winning in November and understandably did not want to see his political career interrupted.

In another Indiana seat, IN-09, SUSA released the first poll of the fourth match-up in a row between Rep. Baron Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006 while Sodrel won in 2006. This time, SUSA finds Hill starting with an edge, ahead 51% to 40%. Sodrel cannot hope to benefit from that too much of this comes from an incumbent's advantage that will fade since his own name recognition is higher than your average challenger's. One of the Republicans' main hope here has been that Hill is more vulnerable in a presidential year, but will Obama's organizing efforts in this state that Kerry made no effort in boost Hill's chances?

A poll in PA-11, however, points to potential trouble for Democratic Rep. Kanjorski, who is running against hardcore immigration opponent Lou Barletta, the Mayor of Hazleton. The poll is an internal survey conducted and released for Barletta, so take it with a grain of salt, but it shows the challenger leading 47% to 42% -- at the very least a sure sign that Kanjorski is endangered. PA-11 is a rare seat not held by a freshman Democrat the GOP is even talking about.

Going on to Senate news, the possibility of Jesse Ventura entering the Minnesota race and making the match-up between Senator Coleman and Al Franken that much more unpredictable is getting more real as former Sen. Dean Barkley (who Ventura appointed to fill Wellstone's seat for 4 months in 2002) is now saying that Ventura really wants to run and is personally leaning towards it. Recent polls have shown that Ventura would clear 20% if he jumped in and would make life more complicated for Franken. Ventura's 1998 gubernatorial primary came in an open seat nad it would be more likely for him to succeed in a race with an incumbent.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky race might be more competive but I sure am still not convinced that Bruce Lunsford is much of a Democrat. One of the chief complaints progressives (and, for that matter, all Democrats) have against him is that he donated money to Mitch McConnell previously. Asked in an interview on Political Base to justify that, Lunsford gives the only answer that could have been worse than arguing he is in fact a die-heart conservative by openly arguing that his opportunism was necessary for him to make profits and maintain good lobbying connections. He even makes an open reference to the K Street project (!):

The bulk of those Republican and McConnell contributions occurred after their 1994 takeover of Congress while I was running a large public company with significant regulatory oversight by the federal government. Everyone knows about the K Street Project in Washington. McConnell operates his own version of that shakedown with folks in business here in Kentucky and he was not shy about his requests for contributions, especially when our industry had critical legislation before the Senate. And I recall him not being pleased that I had contributed more to some of his opponents than him.

Lunsford is clearly aware that he has to defend some of his Democratic credentials a bit (after all, this is a second-tier race for which the support of the netroots could be very helpful to get attention and money) by attacking the Bush Administration, the Iraq War and even Joe Lieberman, though he doesn't deflect the questioner's skepticism that he wouldn't be a Lieberman on domestic issues very effectively. None of this is likely to hurt his chances in the general (it is Kentucky, after all), except insofar as a candidate trying to get noticed needs grassroots enthusiasm.

Finally, Rasmussen released its latest poll from New Hampshire's Senate race, finding Jeanne Shaheen crushing John Sununu 53% to 39%. Last month, Rasmussen found a 50% to 43% margin. This is the same size lead as ARG found a few days ago, and Sununu increasingly looks like a sure bet to be the Santorum of 2008. He has trailed from the very beginning and the race shows no indication that it's on his way to closing. Add this race to NM and CO and the Democrats look to have 3 sure pick-ups.

Thursday polls: McCain leads big in Florida, Udall opens a lead in CO

The pace of polls certainly looks to have picked up after a big wave of surveys yesterday brought good news to Obama's campaign yesterday. Today's polls serve as a reminder that the presidential race remains close:

• Fox News's national poll finds Barack Obama leading John McCain by a narrow 45% to 41%. In a four-way race, Obama's lead is 42% to 39% with 4% for Ralph Nader and 2% for Bob Barr.
• Fox News included questions about which candidate "loves America" the most. These questions are silly enough that I see no need to include the results.
  

• In Florida, Rasmussen found John McCain leading 47% to 39%. This is a slight improvement from McCain's 50% to 40% lead last month.
  
• Obama's favorability is negative (46% to 48%) and 33% have a very negative impression of him, versus 21% for McCain (the Republican's overall rating is 50% to 46%).
• Asked whether they think offshore drilling would lower oil prices, 61% of Floridians responded in the affirmative.

• Finally, Colorado is a toss-up in the latest Rasmussen poll, as Obama leads 43% to 41% -- down from a 48% to 42% lead last month.
  
• Here again Obama has a high very unfavorable rating (31%, against 18% for Obama) and his favorability rating has dropped to 50%.
  

Colorado is one of Obama's top targets and the fact that he has not trailed once in Rasmussen's 5 polls from the state confirms that he ought to target Colorado's 9 electoral votes. But after yesterday's two Florida surveys showing Obama leading by 4% and 5%, Rasmussen's poll is a reminder that, as long as the election remains tight, we will be seeing a lot of inconsistency in these big swing-states. While yesterday's polls should reassure Democrats that McCain has not locked Florida in his column and that this contest will remain competitive, Obama retains a number of disadvantages in the Sunshine state, which has been trending Republican over the past eight years and which resisted to the Democratic tsunami better than other states back in 2006.

These presidential surveys were accompanied by a fair number of congressional polls:

• In Colorado, Rasmussen finds Mark Udall extending his lead over Bob Schaffer. He is now leading 49% to 40%.
  

• In Kentucky, the McConnell campaign released an internal poll showing the incumbent with a 50% to 39% lead against "Democrat" Bruce Lunsford.
  

• In one of the most hotly disputed Dem-held House seats, incumbent Nancy Boyda released an internal poll conducted by Anzalone Lizst that finds Boyda crushing her two potential opponents, 54% to 37% against former Rep. Jim Ryun and 57% to 27% against state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. It goes without saying that you should take this poll (and any internal poll) with a huge grain of salt.
  
• The poll also finds McCain beating Obama by 7% in a district Bush carried by 20%.

• Finally, SUSA released two congressional polls from Washington State. In competitive WA-08, Rep. Dave Reichert is holding off on his Democratic challenger Darcy Burner 51% to 45%. This is a rematch of a 2006 race which Reichert won 51% to 49%.
• In WA-02, a district Kerry won by only 4%, Rep. Larsen leads 56% to 38%, confirming that the Democrat is safe in this district the GOP could hope to contest in better conditions.

In Colorado's open gubernatorial race in 2006, Democrat Ritter unexpectedly opened an early lead against his highly-touted Republican opponent and never looked back, easily carrying the election in November after a campaign that was never truly competitive. This was certainly a reflection of how toxic the environment was for the GOP. The same exact pattern held in Minnesota's open Senate race, and Democrats were expecting Mark Udall to enjoy similar success this year. But the race has remained very tight, giving Republicans hope that all is not lost. It is only in the past two months that Udall has opened up a somewhat consistent lead, boosted by the bad press Schaffer has gotten over corruption issues and even ads he ran. Keep an eye on polls over the summer: If Udall maintains a lead, we might be in for a repeat of the CO and MN races from 2006 and the NRSC would probably abandon Schaffer to his fate.

As for Kentucky, this is the second time that McConnell is releasing an internal poll immediately after an independent survey found a competitive race. The first was in late May after Rasmussen found Lunsford leading him by 5%. This one is a response to a SUSA survey released earlier this week with McConnell up 4%. Both of McConnell's internal polls have found the same result -- 50% to 39% -- and it is telling that this is being spun as reassuring numbers by the incumbent. For the Senate Minority Leader to be hovering on the vulnerability threshold of 50% is certainly cause for worry and should encourage the DSCC to look closely in Kentucky's direction.

Tuesday polls: Obama pulls ahead in OH and is competitive in NC, while Franken and McConnell are in trouble

Finally, after weeks of being bombarded by polls from New York, Kansas and Washington State, someone thought to poll the presidential race in Ohio – and it brings welcome news to Obama’s campaign:

• Public Policy Polling released its first survey in quite a while and it shows Barack Obama trouncing John McCain 50% to 39%. As usual, Obama is weaker among registered Dems (73%) than McCain is among registered Republicans (83%). Obama is leading by 13% among independents, however. As for potential VP picks, respondents seem more inclined to be swayed by Hillary Clinton than by their governor Ted Strickland.
• Update: A commenter points out that this survey was in the field on the 17th and 18th of May. This is very strange indeed, as it represents more than a 3 week delay... Did PPP not even poll Hillary Clinton against McCain then? At the time, most pollsters did.
  

A long series of polls showing Obama weak in Ohio or at least significantly underperforming Clinton (including PPP's most recent survey released in March, repeated waves of Quinnipiac's polls and Rasmussen's May poll) was interrupted by SUSA's showing Obama comfortably ahead of McCain mid-May. PPP's poll is the first since then. Given how much care the Obama campaign is putting in cultivating alternative electoral maps that do would not require victory in Florida and Ohio, the state's 20 electoral votes almost seem like they would be a bonus that would all but ensure the Democrat's victory -- though with McCain's apparent strength in Michigan, it is essential for Democrats to contest Ohio to offset a potential disaster in Michigan.

The day's other important presidential poll is the much-discussed ABC/Washignton Post national poll:

• Barack Obama leads 48% to 42%, a margin that is little moved since ABC's previous poll, suggesting there has been little movement since the Democrat wrapped up his nomination. The WaPo is emphasizing the fact that the two candidates are tied among independents.
• Another national poll, released by Cook/RT Strategies, shows Obama leading 44% to 40%.

Last week, after the NBC polled found Obama leading by 6%, I criticized the obsession with pointing out that Kerry had never led in NBC polls in 2004 and that Bush had never beeh ahead by that much either. I pointed out that, in many other polls, Kerry had a clear lead in the early summer and that Bush was repeatedly ahead by 9-11% in September. The ABC poll is a case in point: Now, everyone is pointing out that John Kerry had the same lead in an ABC poll taken at this time four years ago. So which is it? Is an Obama lead significant because Kerry never led or significant because he was the favorite? It is important to look at a pollster's trendlines because of methodology and turnout models, but the pollster-specific comparisons of surveys that are four years apart does not seem to me to be particularly helpful.

What is somewhat significant in recently released national polls is that predictions by strategists from both camps that Obama could open a double-digit lead in the weeks after becoming the nominee have not come true, though the Democrat is consistently ahead. But it is the electoral college, of course, that will determine the winner and two important state polls were released today besides Ohio’s:

• In North Carolina, polls are now consistently showing McCain’s leading hovering around the margin of error. The latest Civitas poll finds him barely ahead 45% to 41%, with Bob Barr polling in at 2%. Last month, McCain was up by 5%.


• In Minnesota, SUSA finds Obama struggling to pull ahead, coming in at 47% against 46% for McCain. He was ahead by 5% in a poll taken two weeks ago, though that swing is within the margin of error. The big difference is the flip of the indie vote.

It is difficult to imagine North Carolina flipping if a state like Virginia does not, underscoring how close to a blow-out victory Obama would get if he keeps NC this close through November. As for Minnesota, so much for my speculations that Obama might be putting away the “Dukakis 5,” though it’s worth pointing out that most other recent MN surveys finding a more comfortable lead for Obama. But it is SUSA’s Senate poll from this state that has got to worry Democrats:

• Norm Coleman has opened up a significant lead against Al Franken, 52% to 40%, though this is stable from last month's poll that showed the Democrat trailing 52% to 42%. Franken loses the independent vote 60% to 33%.
  
• If Jesse Ventura jumps in the race (it is the second time this week this match-up is polled), Franken trails 41% to 31% with 23% for Ventura. In a sure sign of trouble for Franken, Mike Ciresi, a Democrat who dropped out of the race in February, polls slightly better than him against Coleman: 50% to 40%.

• Also today, Rasmussen released a survey of Alaska's Senate race, finding Ted Stevens surviving 46% to 44% against Mark Begich, who was narrowly ahead 47% to 45% last month. Other surveys have found larger leads for Begich.

Al Franken has been suffering through months of bad press, as controversies over tax disclosures, a 2000 essay in Playboy and a 1995 joke on rape erupted in recent weeks. Yet, polls found little movement in this (very often) polled race. But SUSA's survey is obviously bad news for the Democratic challenger as it goes along the narrative of a sinking campaign. That Franken polls roughly at the same level as a candidate who has not been campaigning for 5 months suggests that he is now underperforming the level of a generic Democrat.

Update: SUSA just released a fascinating new poll from Kentucky:

• In the presidential race, John McCain leads Obama 53% to 41%. This is a huge progression from a May poll in which Obama trailed by 24%. Look no further than the vote of registered Democrat, Obama has gone from... 48% to 59%! Still a very low number, but one that is now in line with what you would expect in Kentucky.
• In the Senate race, however, Mitch McConnell is only ahead of Bruce Lunsford 50% to 46%!

I for one have long remained unconvinced that Lunsford would be a real threat to McConnell, and given how nightmarish he would be for progressives, it is certainly my top wish among GOP-held seats. But this now the second poll that finds Lunsford to be very competitive and there is no doubt that unseating the Minority Leader would be a huge upset. Given that the DSCC is looking for second and third-tier seats to make competitive to have a shot at 60, this is not the last we will hear of Kentucky.

Senate shocker: Lunsford could make it a race in Kentucky

And just like that, Kentucky is back in the continually growing group of competitive Senate seats. A week after Bruce Lunsford won the Democratic primary to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Rasmussen released a poll that challenges the conventional wisdom of this race:

• Lunsford leads McConnell 49% to 44%, despite McConnell's satisfying favorability rating, at 52%.

Many of you might remember the series of polls released in the fall that showed McConnell surprisingly vulnerable to challenges by a number of Democrats, starting with Rep. Chandler, state Attorney General Stumbo and state Auditor Crit Luallen. But as all of them declined to run, McConnell's suddenly appeared much more safe. The DSCC encouraged Lunsford to run, but he was generally deemed a second-to-third tier candidate. But perhaps Lunsford can use to his benefit what until now were challenges to overcome; the fact that he has donated money to McConnell in the past and that he supported Republican Ernie Fletcher's election bid in 2003 are certainly proof of Lunsford's shady Democratic credentials and conservative roots and those can help him get elected in a state like Kentucky.

Also, Lunsford will self-fund some of his candidacy (which is one of the main reasons the DSCC pushed him to run and helped him in the primary). McConnell has a war chest of almost $8 million already, and he aired his first ads in the fall to address some of his vulnerabilities. Lunsford's ability to pay for some ads from his own pockets will be critical for Democrats to exploit their opening here.

In response, the McConnell campaign released an internal poll showing the Senator ahead, a poll also taken after the primary to account for any bounce received by the Democrat:

• In this poll, McConnell is leading Lunsford 50% to 39%, and enjoys 57% approval rating.

This is certainly more reassuring numbers than those released by Rasmussen, but there is a reason the campaign chose not to release them until Rasmussen put them on the defensive: It's not a very good result either. For the Senate Minority Leader and longtime fixture of Kentucky politics to be on the brink of vulnerability (the 50% threshold) is cause for worry, especially when running against a candidate who does not have the popularity or recognition that Chandler or Stumbo might have had. Add to this the fact that internal polls are always to be taken with a grain of salt, and McConnell's effort to lower Republican concerns cannot be regarded as fully successful.

With the Democrats expanding the Senate map in every direction, Republicans believed it had made Kentucky safe. But the Rasmussen poll (combined with the GOP's internal poll that confirms that this will be a tight race to the finish) dashes those hopes. It also strengthens the Democrats' argument that they have a path to a 60-seat Senate majority this year. Let's review the list of Republican-held seats in which a recent poll has shown the Democrat ahead: VA, CO, NH, NM, AK, MN (not since February), MS, NC and now KY. In addition, Merkley and Noriega are polling within 5 points in Oregon and Texas. That's 11 races right there, and we aren't even counting states in which the GOP looks good for now but in which the DSCC is determined to make a move (Maine, and Oklahoma).

Also today, a new Rasmussen poll from Minnesota confirms that the Coleman-Franken showdown will be one of the most entertaining and tightest of the year:

• Coleman now leads his Democratic challenger 47% to 45%, down from a 7% lead last month. The two men have comparable favorability ratings.

Franken has had a particularly rough few months, as the GOP and the press have relentlessly hammered him for his tax problems. A wave of polls showed him ahead in February but he lost ground since then, but this poll suggests that he might be recovering now. We will wait for other polls to confirm any trends.

Meanwhile, in Montana, a new Mason-Dixon Senate poll, the first of the state's Senate race, confirms that Democratic Senator Baucus is safe even though his state is likely to vote for McCain in the fall. He leads his challengers by 35% or more, with at least 60% of the vote. In better news for Republicans, M-D also found GOP Rep. Rehlberg, who represents the entire state, to be in good shape for his re-election battle despite some Democrats believing that they can put his seat in play. He leads probable Dem nominee Jim Hunt 52% to 20%, flirting with the 50% line but it will be difficult for Hunt, who is largely unknown, to catch up.

Senate: OR and KY pick their nominees, Dem leads in MS

The week's biggest political news continues to be Ted Kennedy's health condition, as the longtime Massachusetts Senator was released from the hospital today in seemingly excellent condition. It is still difficult to talk about the political consequences of these developments as we know too little about Kennedy's condition and his plans.

Meanwhile, the Oregon and Kentucky Senate races were set last night as two contested primaries were settled. In Oregon, state House speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly bested Steve Novick who ran a surprisingly strong campaign and ended up 4 percent short of victory. The DSCC thus got its wish, though there were few indications that Merkley would be a particularly stronger candidate against GOP incumbent Gordon Smith. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Smith besting Merkley by only 3 percent, though that by far the best poll Merkley has seen.

The DSCC's choice also won in Kentucky, as Bruce Lunsford handily beat businessman Greg Fisher. Lunsford, who lost the 2007 gubernatorial primary, will now face a Senate giant, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Senator looked to be very vulnerable in the fall but a series of recruitment failures by Democrats made his a much safer bet. Lunsford should not be able to do much more than take advantage of the toxic environment for the GOP; even if elected, he would be a very conservative Democrat. He endorsed Republican Ernie Fletcher in 2003's gubernatorial race after he did not get the Democratic primary, and has donated to McConnell's senatorial campaign.

Meanwhile, two new polls from Senate races that were supposed to be second-tier at best are bringing good news for Democrats:

• In North Carolina, it is SUSA's turn to confirm that Elizabeth Dole is in very real danger. She leads state Senator Kay Hagan 50% to 46%, a very narrow margin for an incumbent facing a little-known opponent. This is a contest in which Obama boosting black turnout could have a very real effect down-the-ballot. One area Hagan will have to work on: independents prefer Dole by 16%.

• In Mississippi, an internal poll released by the DSCC shows former Governor Ronnie Musgrove leading Republican incumbent Roger Wicker 48% to 40%. Like every partisan poll, this has to be taken with a grain of salt but it does paint a worrisome picture for the GOP. Musgrove is well-known and well-liked (his favorability rating is 57% to 30%) while Wicker is still mostly unknown 5 months after his appointment to fill Trent Lott's seat. That does mean that he has room to grow in the coming months.

• Update: Rasmussen released a new poll from Colorado, showing Udall slightly expanding his lead against Schaffer. He is now ahead 47% to 41%. Given how tough the past month has been for Schaffer, it is a disappointment for Dems that they are not further ahead and a relief for the GOP that all is not lost.
  

Both North Carolina and Mississippi have Democrats licking their lips at the extent to which they are expanding the map this cycle. It is numbers like this that make a 60-seat majority not as utopian a dream as was thought just a few weeks ago. The numbers in Mississippi are particularly interesting as they confirm a prior poll taken in late 2007 that showed Musgrove in the lead. Remember that Democrats were trying to force a special election in March, before Wicker had time to develop an incumbency advantage. A lower court judge ruled in their favor but the state Supreme Court overturned that decision. This poll suggests that Musgrove could be Senator now if Democrats had gotten their wish, but the road could get tougher in the months ahead as Wicker improves his name recognition and the GOP advantage of a presidential year kicks in.

In other down-the-ballot but non-Senate news, here are two polls from 2 of the only 4 contested gubernatorial races, both released by SUSA:

• In what is shaping to be an unexpectedly tight race, Beverly Perdue has a small lead over Republican Pat MacCrory, 52% to 45%. Both won a contested primary on May 6th. A Rasmussen poll released last week showed MacCrory besting Perdue.

• In Missouri, however, it will be very difficult for the GOP to even keep the race competitive as they are running against Jay Nixon who has been preparing for this race for years. He is trouncing the two Republican candidates running for this open seat, by 25% and 26%.
  

The primary victory of Charlotte Mayor MacCrory means that the North Carolina gubernatorial race is the GOP's best pick-up chance among all the Senate and governor's contests. That the race remains a toss-up speaks to the Republicans' disadvantage this cycle.

Kentucky and Oregon guidelines: Presidential and senatorial primaries

Ever since the end of February, Democratic voters played a crual game in maintaining the status-quo over and over again, forcing both candidates to go through the motions of a competitive race by granting Clinton victories credible enough for her to win the night but not convincing enough for the fundamentals of the race to change. Since May 6th, we have left the cruelty and entered the surreal phase, in which only one candidate is going through the motions of a competitive race, the other having moved on to the general election by visiting this fall's battleground state and battling the Republican nominee.

This is what makes today's elections so difficult to assess: Is there any result, no matter how favorable to her, that could truly help Hillary Clinton? Or is the only question at this point what effect the result will have on Barack Obama -- will they force him to go through more talk of his electability weakness and his problems among the working class, or will they put a triumphant coda on his march towards the nomination?

The Kentucky primary is likely to be a triumph for Hillary Clinton which means that the exit polls will be as closely parsed as those in West Virginia last week: Does Obama's weakness with white voters and blue-collar voters express itself in Kentucky? Will there be as many voters confessing to racial basis as they were last week?

It would be a huge surprise (and the only result worth considering more carefully as to whether it could pause the flow of superdelegates) if Obama did not win the Oregon primary, though the margin should be inferior to that of Clinton in Kentucky. The Obama campaign is quick to point out that Oregon is also big on blue-collar white voters; indeed, Oregon is an ovwelmingly white state with a strong working-class, so it will certainly be important to consider the voting breakdown in Oregon when judging Obama's weakness among blue-collar voters.

Obama hopes that this proves that his problem is not quite as big as West Virginia's results suggested, though it's important to note that Obama was trounced by Clinton among blue-collar voters in states with less racial polarization. In fact, only in Wisconsin did Obama do significant inroads among blue-collar voters. The Obama campaign believes Oregon could be a remake of Wisconsin and that Obama does significantly better than usual among Clinton's core groups; if it is (and given the fact that the party is increasingly uniting around the Illinois Senator), it would be a huge victory for his camp that would deflect much of the negative press he should receive about Kentucky.

Timing will likely be key tonight, just as it was on May 6th when Gary County holding its results prevented Clinton from claiming victory earlier in the night and only heightened Obama's domination of the results' coverage. Tonight, we will get results from Kentucky early: The first numbers will start trickling in at 6pm ET (KY and IN have among the earliest closing times) and there should be a call at 7pm. Oregon, however, starts releasing results at 11pm (note that more than 2/3rds of the votes have arleady been mailed-in before today, and a lot of those will already have been counted so results should come in quickly). That means that when Obama delivers his triumphant speech in Iowa -- and possibly at press time -- only the Kentucky results will be known, and that could influence the night's coverage.

Down-the-ballot: Perhaps more suspenseful and ultimately more meaningful than the presidential primaries, there are two Senate primaries playing out in Oregon and Kentucky as well. The tightest is in Oregon, where state House speaker Jeff Merkley is facing a surprisingly competitive challenge by Steve Novick. The DSCC recuited Merkley and has even aired ads to help him and organized phone banks, but the latest polls show a toss-up with the slightest of edges to Novick who ran the more creative campaign. The winner will face Senator Gordon Smith in the genearl election in what Democrats believed would be one of their best opportunities a few months ago; the optimism is less prevalent today.

Kentucky, meanwhile, might be the DSCC's biggest recruitment failure now that Kay Hagan looks to have some potential in NC. Polls in the fall showed Senator McConnell very vulnerable a number of Democratic officials, all of which declined to run one-by-one. Today, Bruce Lunsford, a centrist/conservative Democrat who lost the gubernatorial primary in 2007, is favored to get his party's nod against Greg Fisher.

Congressional diary: One more House Republican withdraws, Sununu trails and Horne drops out

Arizona's Rep. John Shadegg announced today that he would not seek re-election, an entirely unexpected development. Shadegg, who was first elected in 1994, ran for House Majority Leader last year as the most conservative candidate and came in third and found himself out of the GOP leadership.

Democrats have a candidate that is very well-funded, Bob Lord. But Shadegg's district is reliably Republic -- Bush beat Kerry 57% to 41% in 2004 -- and Shadegg dipped below 60% only once, finishing his 2006 re-election race in 2006. This retirement is thus not important because it creates another competitive open seat (though we should keep a close eye on further developments, depending on who the GOP manages to recruit). It is significant because it says a lot about the state of disarray of House Republicans. One of the most vocal conservative leaders is retiring without any warning sign says a lot about how much belief the GOP has in its chances of reclaiming the House in November.

Shadegg did specify that he might seek John McCain's Senate seat if the senator is elected to the White House in November and his seat needs to be filled. And I thus learned that Governor Napolitano, a Democrat, would have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat became vacant, as Arizona law requires the governor to pick someone from the same party (the same was true a few months ago when a GOP-held seat opened up in Wyoming and the Democratic governor was not allowed to appoint a Democrat).

In other Senate news, a new University of New Hampshire poll shows Senator Sununu massively trailing former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of their 2002 race. Shaheen gets 54% to Sununu's 37%. Shaheen's lead has been consistent for months now, except for an ARG poll in December that had Sununu up 11%. That was attributed to the bad press Shaheen's husband was getting at the time for his suggestion that the GOP would use Barack Obama's drug use in the general election. Whether or not that is true, the ARG poll more than ever looks to have been an outlier.

Finally, some surprising news from the Kentucky Senate race, where attorney and Iraq War veteran Andrew Horne abruptly announced he was withdrawing his candidacy without really providing a reason. Horne entered after the first tier of potential Democratic candidates announced they were not running. Despite having a solid online following, Horne did not seem quite adequate to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Democratic candidate will now probably be Bruce Lunsford, who lost the gubernatorial primary last year against eventual winner Steve Beshear.

House GOP loses three more members, and Kentucky filing deadline marked by last-minute chaos

It seems blasphemous to cover anything but the presidential races right now given the high drama of both the Democratic and Republican races right now (though the GOP contest will be much less exciting from now on), but it's hard to ignore that still more Republican-held House seats have opend up since Monday.

VA-11: I first reported on rumors of Tom Davis's imminent retirement on Monday, and it is now being confirmed. VA-11 shoots up to the very top of Democratic opportunities, and Leslie Byrne, the Democratic candidate, carried the district handily in her statewide campaign for Lieutenant governship in 2005. Check the analysis of VA-11 I wrote on Monday.

MO-Gov and MO-09: Governor Blunt's unexpected retirement last week prompted Republican confusion, and there has been a lot of jockeying around among the state GOP. With statewide officials already in the race, all eyes were on the state's representatives. Would any of them seek to win the Governor's mansion and leave their seat open? On Monday, Kenny Hulshof from MO-09 announced she was jumping in the gubernatorial race. That gives Republicans a strong candidate to take on Democratic Attorney General Nixon for governor, but it means one more House seat to defend. Fortunately for the GOP, MO-09 leans Republican, so it does not represent a gigantic headache for Republicans; but it is definitely the type of district Democrats had some success in at the last midterms.

Chaos in KY-02: As if Rep. Ron Lewis's retirement was not shocking enough, but the manner in which he did it is just stunning. The filling deadline in Kentucky was expiring yesterday at 4pm, and Ron Lewis had let out no sign that he was planning on retiring. Minutes before the deadline, the wife of his chief of staff Daniel London went to the SOS office to withdraw Lewis's name and file papers for London instead! Lewis's ploy to get his chief of staff nominated failed as state Sen. Brett Guthrie had somehow heard of the possibility of this happening and was also waiting at the SOS's office. Guthrie immediately filed his own candidacy papers, setting up a Guthrie v. London primary. (Read the detailed wrap-up of this ridiculous ploy over at CQPolitics).

In any case, KY-02 is now an open seat. And Democrats have a strong candidate in the race, state Senator David Boswell, who had filed thinking he would compete against Lewis. (Democrats must be very relieved they made sure to file a candidate here). KY-02 is a strongly Republican district. Bush prevailed here with about 65% of the vote, though Lewis only got 55% in 2006 in an under-the-radar race that the underfunded Democrat kept surprisingly close. Republicans are favored, but it is unclear at this point how strong Brett Guthrie might be in the general election, so we will have to keep a close watch on this race.

KY-03: Republicans got some good news in another Kentucky race, as former Rep. Northup jumped in the 3rd district race against John Yarmuth, who defeated her in 2006. This had also been rumored for the past week or two, but Northup's intentions had not been fully confirmed. KY-03 is a good district for Democrats, and Yarmuth will likely keep it for a few cycles if he manages to beat the well-known Northup next year. It is worth noting that Northup lost the GOP's gubernatorial primary last year against incumbent Fletcher, though the moderate credential that did her in in that primary are likely to play well in the KY-03 general election.

KY-Sen: Kentucky's Senate contest was the hottest race this November, where the DSCC was pushing hard to get Treasurer Luallen or AG Stumbo to jump in the race. Both announced they would not run since then, and now that the filing deadline passed the field is set. The Democrats filed attorney Andrew Horne, businessman Greg Fisher and a last-minute addendum is Bruce Lunsford who lost the gubernatorial primary in 2007 to now-Governor Beshear. Lunsford is a centrist Democrat who is distrusted by his party's activists, so it is unclear what the dynamics of this primary will be. There is no question that the field is much weaker than it could have been, and that the DSCC did not do well at recruiting here.

Congressional polls, and happy incumbents

• KY-Sen: Is McConnell still vulnerable?

Few incumbents have done more over the past few months to improve a precarious situation than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. After poll after poll showed his approval rating collapsing and his barely leading potential Democratic opponents in head-to-head matchups, McConnell started began to run ads touting his record and his tenure as Minority Leader.

Boosted by the millions he has in the bank (and that he can raise easily given his high-profile position in DC), McConnell realized he needed to move fast to quash speculation that he was vulnerable. And he got his first success when the two challengers that were being the most talked-up, Treasurer Luallen and AG Stumbo, both announced that they would not run. Attorney Andrew Horne followed that up by jumping in the race, but he still has to show he has what it takes to defeat a Senate Minority Leader.

Now, McConnell has released an internal poll that shows him with a booming approval rating at 61%. Furthermore, McConnell would beat four Democrats by at least 15%, including Andrew Horne and other potential candidates. Those results are not entirely depressing for Democrats given the low name recognition of McConnell's rivals, but it is obviously very difficult for a little-known challenger to raise his profile against a powerful opponent who has a lot of money at his disposal.

Yet, there are questions as to how SUSA also just released its own approval rating poll . It shows the incumbent at only 49% -- definitely dangerous territory for an incumbent, albeit a small improvement from the fall. So it will all depend on how much resources the DSCC is willing to devote to the race; with other second-tier contests like Nebraska falling through for now, Senate Democrats are looking to expand the map beyond the contests that are already competitive to force the GOP to defend seats it hoped would be safe and abandon more marginal states.

The situation does not look as good for Democrats than it did in October-November, but this is a state we will be watching closely.

• PA-10: Carney surprisingly strong

PA-10 is one of the most Republican districts picked-up by a Democrat in 2006; Rep. Chris Carney surged ahead because of allegations against the incumbent Republican that he had choked his mistress. The GOP has vowed to reclaim the seat this year and to make Carney one of its prime targets. Yet, a poll taken in December suggests that Carney is in better shape than we would expect.

He not only gets high approval rating (58%) but he also beats his two rivals (Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser) by at least 30%. The poll was conducted by a Democratic firm but not for Carney himself, so it does not appear to be what is commonly called an "internal poll."

The reason for Carney's strength in a district Bush won with 60% in 2004 is the president's unpopularity, as his approval rating is only at 45%. And this is a dynamic the GOP will have to deal with across the very red districts Democrats picked-up in 2006. Whether OH-18, TX-22 CA-11, or PA-10, the NRCC cannot just expect these seats to come back to them given that the national mood is still as toxic for the GOP than it was during the midterms, and that could allow incumbents most people expected to be one-timers to survive.

The problem for Democrats, however, is that by next November the Republican Party will be defined less by Bush than by the presidential nominee. And why the GOP will not escape from its current unpopularity that easily it could still provide a boost to Republican candidates in districts like this who need to find a way to not look like Bush's ground soldiers. In a presidential year with a new leader of the party, Republicans are hoping they will succeed in doing just that. It's up to Democrats to not let the GOP get away with that and to hang Bush's tenure around their neck.

Whatever happened to everything breaking for Democrats in congressional races?

Earlier in the fall, seemingly everything was breaking for Democrats in congressional races. An endless stream of retirements by Republicans in both the Senate and the House, recruitment coups, fundraising prowess. But in the past two months, the GOP has gotten some huge lucky breaks, starting with the mounting number of Democrats who passed on Senate races when their entrance alone would have made the contest huge pick-up opportunities (Kerrey and Fahey in Nebraska, Moore in Mississippi, Luallen in Kentucky...). Fine, things are still looking very rosy for Senate and House Democrats -- but we've got to admit that the seemingly endless streak of good news has been broken.

And Democrats get too more pieces of bad news tonight. In Minnesota, first of all, there are now stunning reports that Rep. Ramstad could un-retire! He retired a few months ago, opening up a very competitive House seat that Democrats have been salivating over. So it would obviously be a huge blow to Democrats -- and a huge (and unexpected) victory for the NRCC if Ramstad actually retires. Democrats might be frustrated enough to mount a race against him and make it competitive -- but it would obviously not be as big a target if Ramstad had ran.

And news item number two is that Kentucky Attorney General Stumbo actually looks set to run for his old state House seat back instead of running for the Senate against McConnell. The rumor had been floated a while ago but now the state Rep who holds his old seat resigned when he had said he would run for re-election. And Stumbo is set to release a statement tomorrow, which could possibly be announcing that he won't run for Senate. Stumbo had formed an explanatory committee so this would definitely be a recruitment failure for Democrats. Andrew Horne is in the race for them already, and we have yet to see how competitive he could be against McConnell.

• Legal showdown in Mississippi coming up, as Trent Lott officially resigns... before New Year's

While Mike Moore's refusal to enter the race last week was a major blow to Democratic chances, remember that this race did not even exist a few weeks ago! So anything that happens for Democrats here is an awesome bonus. And things are once again picking up.

Trent Lott officially resigned today. The fact that he did not wait until after New Year's to do so when he creates enormous problems for his party by doing so just about proves that he is resigning because of the new lobbying law that takes effect on January 1st and that bans congressmen who leave office then from lobbying their former colleges for two years. And this now means that (1) we will know Lott's replacement by the end of next week, and (2) Governor Barbour will have a huge legal fight on his hands: He wants to set the special election to replace Lott for November, but the law's intention ispretty clearly that the election must be held within a 100 days of vacancy -- i.e. by the end of March.

The state Attorney General issued an opinion today that says that the law unambiguously means for a special election to be held by then -- and threatens to draw this to court if Barbour still tries to set the election for November -- which he surely will. We can only guess this should be resolved fast in the court given that the whole point would be the need to have an election within 100 days.

Meanwhile, we get our first poll of the race today, though the survey also tests Mike Moore who is no longer considering running:

• Mike Moore trailed Gop Rep. Wicker 46% to 39% and Rep. Pickering 45% to 41%. Now that he is out, the other major viable candidate for Dems is former Musgrove, who trails Wicker 46%to 39%, and Pickering 45% to 39%.

Naturally, the more time the Republican replacement for Lott (who could be someone else than Wicker and Pickering) has before the special election, the more time for him to build up incumbency. The GOP clearly starts favored -- and it would be especially so if the election coincidences with the presidential one, with increased turnout helping Republicans here. But whatever happens, this is not a headache the GOP wanted to have -- and it does not want to have to spend resources in a special election either in March or in November. The race looks to be within single-digits, so it should be close to the end.

Senate: Democrats get a candidate in Kentucky, but Landrieu looks weak in LA

• Andrew Horne jumps in

Democrats have a candidate in Kentucky's Senate race. A week after State Auditor Crit Luallen -- who many viewed as the strongest candidate against GOP incumbent Mitch McConnell -- announced she would not run, attorney and veteran Andrew Horne announced his candidacy. There still are other Democrats considering the race, including Attorney General Stumbo and Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo -- the latter is unlikely to run, but the former still has an explanatory committee.

Some feel very strongly about Horne's chances, but there is no denying that in a major high-profile race like this one against the Senate Minority Leader who sits on top of $10 million warchest and has already ran ads, there are candidates who would have been stronger. Horne will definitely make this competitive: An October poll that had McConnell barely edging out Luallen had Horne 11% behind and holding McConnell under 50%, a great showing for someone whose name ID is still not very high.

The race will stay for now hovering between Lean and Likely retention; let's see how much the DSCC is willing to commit to the race, as it could become very tight if national Democrats are willing to get involved to help their nominee to counter the McConnell onslaught. And odds are the DSCC will get involved: They have lots of money, and they want to keep McConnell stranded at home instead of helping out fellow GOPers across the country.

• Louisiana is a toss-up

Yesterday we got new polls from Colorado and Idaho's Senate races, and both were tighter than expected. Today, SUSA released a poll from Louisiana. It is tight, but this one was expected:

• Incumbent Dem Mary Landrieu leads her challenger John Kennedy 46% to 42%.
• Reminder: An internal Zogby poll for the Kennedy campaign released last month by the Republican had him up 45% to 38%.

This will be one of the tightest Senate races in the country, and Landrieu is clearly in danger: She's a two-term incumbent and is still under 50% -- under 40%, even, in the Zogby poll. One reassuring thought for Dems is that Kennedy won't necessarily benefit from added exposure since he is already pretty well-known in the state: He ran for Senate in 04 (as a Democrat...) and has been the state Treasurer for a while. One reassuring thought for Republicans is that the national committee will dump a lot of resources here since Louisiana is the only Dem-held state in which Republicans have a chance at this point. So Kennedy can be sure he will get a lot of help.

Major congessional news: Chavez, Versace drop out, Luallen confirms

• Chavez drops out

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez withdrew from the New Mexico Senate race tonight -- a surprising desicion but not a totally unexpected one. With the entire Democratic establishement rallying behind Rep. Tom Udall and the DSCC firmly behind him, it was becoming hard for Chavez to continue campaigning. This leaves Udall -- considered much more progressive than Chavez, whom liberals despise -- as the likely nominee for the open seat for the New Mexico Senate seat.

The GOP still has a divisive primary on its hands between Rep. Pearce and Rep. Wilson -- which means the only major candidates left in the race are the state's three representatives. Now, this isn't necessarily a huge boost for Democrats insofar as competitive primaries do not always hurt a party -- quite the contrary, they can give the nominee more exposure. But Chavez was preparing to run a negative campaign against Udall and had already been voicing concerns that Udall is too liberal and too far to the Left for the state -- accusations that could have come back and haunted Udall in the general election.

But this is still good news for Democrats insofar as Udall would be a far stronger general election competitor than Chavez -- and this guarantees that Democrats go in the general election favored to take the seat from the GOP. Also, it is good news for progressives who would be better off with Senator Udall than Senator Chavez.

• Luallen not running for sure

Crit Luallen makes it official: she will not be running for Senate. Rumors started swirling this morning, and it did not take long for her to confirm. She said she had just been re-elected State Auditor and did not want a promotion so soon -- but did promise that the party would fight against McConnell next year. The question now is: with whom?

Iraq veteran Andrew Horne now looks like he might jump in -- he called himself a "likely candidate" today. I got some heat this morning for dismissing Andrew Horne chances; I did not want to say he could not win. Polls have shown that he would keep McConnell under 50% as well despite lower name recognition. However, let's not get carried away here; 2006 showed that Iraq veterans do not necessarily run that well, and McConnell has a huge campaign chest that Democrats will have trouble matching. Horne will have a great chance to unseat him, but there's no reason to say that he would have been as strong a candidate as Luallen. And the DSCC is apparently now trying to seduce Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo into running. Mongiardo came within 2 points -- and pretty much out of nowhere -- to beat senile Senator Bunning in 2004.

• Blow to Democrats in IL-18

Rep. LaHood was one of the first Republican representatives who announced his retirement earlier this year. And while not the most competitive of districts, IL-18 seemed to be ripe for a pick-up if Democrats ran a good campaign under good circumstances. They had recruited Dick Versace (former coach of the Indianapolis Pacers) to run, but Versace just announced today that he was withdrawing his candidacy.

The problem for Dems: The filing deadline has already passed (Illinois has the earliest congressional filing deadline by far), and Democrats have no other candidate on the ballot. In other words, they have no one on the primary ballot in February 5th. If I understand the rules correctly that will mean that a Democratic committee will be allowed to replace the vacancy on the ballot, but that would still create awkward circumstances to start a race -- though not ones that would be impossible to overcome. It will also require Democrats to find another candidate to fit the district and who could win in slightly GOP terrain.

In other House news, Rep. Jim McCrery retired today, the 18th House Republican to do so. His Louisiana district is very GOP (Bush won it by 19 points in 2004) and the state has grown more Republican since then. But more conservative districts went blue in 2006, so Democrats potentially have a shot at an open seat here.

In blow to Senate Democrats, top recruits in KY-Sen now appear unlikely to run

Democrats get very bad (and rather unexpected) news in Kentucky today. The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that both state Auditor Crit Luallen and Attorney General Greg Stumbo are unlikely to challenge Mitch McConnell in next year's Senate race. Luallen has reportedly told party leaders in DC she does not want to run anymore, while Stumbo has expressed the desire to run for his old state House seat instead -- a rare example of a politician with no ambition to rise up but go back where he started from instead (which won't be easy anyway since his old seat has a Democratic representative whom he would have to fight in a primary).

Stumbo's decision is especially surprising, given that Stumbo had formed an explanatory committee months ago. He also had publicly bashed Luallen just a few days ago, saying that she had little chance of winning and that his internal polls indicated he would crush her in the primary and have a great chance in the general election. One does not say things like that if one does not strongly intend to run.

All polls taken in the past three months showed McConnell very vulnerable -- for example this one that had Stumbo and Luallen within single-digits against the Senate Minority Leader, kept under 50%. Kentucky had emerged as an unlikely battleground in these circumstances, and Democrats were looking to capitalize on the GOP's toxic environment in the state. But they need a strong candidate to do so, for McConnell isn't your average incumbent.

There obviously still is a high chance that Chuck Schumer manages to twist the arm of either Luallen or Stumbo -- see what happened in New Mexico -- but until that happens Kentucky looks much safer the McConnell. Democrats are now going to turn to attorney and veteran Andrew Horne, who also polled relatively well against McConnell, though I doubt that he has what it takes to bring down a huge name like McConnell's. Though stranger things have certainly happened.

Congressional diary: OH-05 heating up, and Stumbo looking to get in

• The DCCC gets organized...
  

It's 9 days till the OH-05 special election, and the campaign suddenly become heated yesterday with the DCCC buying air time in the district. The ad they are running against Republican Bob Latta can be viewed here. It links Latta to former Governor Bob Taft and Tom Noe, two Republicans who were disgraced in the corruption scandal that rocked the state last year and was a big factor in the easy Democratic victories in the gubernatorial and senatorial races.

The DCCC is also organizing some rapid volunteer effort, trying to send volunteers from DC to Ohio and promising accommodation. I myself received an email about this effort -- Two teams are leaving for Bowling Green from DC on Wednesday and Friday.

Also, Governor Strickland declared today that the race was "very winnable" -- and he presumably would be unwilling to put himself on the line like that if he did not actually believe a Democratic upset was possible.

• ... and the NRCC responds

The DCCC might have already gotten what it was looking, as the NRCC was forced to immediately respond today to avoid the humiliating loss of a very conservative district.

Republicans are now spending $250,000 in ads and direct mailers attacking the Democratic candidate Robin Weirauch, thus outspending the DCCC's ad buy. Don't forget that the NRCC is currently in debt, while the DCCC has about $29 million dollar at hand, so Republicans clearly cannot afford outspending Democrats in districts that they should have no trouble keeping. They will not be able to follow the DCCC's spending next fall, which could help Democrats win seats they might otherwise lose.

• KY-Sen: Stumbo already blasts Luallen

Attorney General Greb Stumbo looks to be ready to be looking to get in the Kentucky Senate race. The surest sign? He took swipes at state Auditor Crit Luallen, who has been closer to Mitch McConnell in polls and who seems to be the DSCC's favored candidate. "Even if I were not interested in this race, I would not advise her not to run," he said. Stumbo also alluded to an internal that show him very competitive in the general election and also show him leading potential Democratic competitors in a primary.

Polls taken in November suggested that Mitch McConnell was vulnerable to a challenge by Luallan or Stumbo; while Luallen is touted as the stronger candidate, there is little doubt Stumbo will make the race competitive -- despite worries that he has too much personal baggage that could be unearthed by the GOP. The bottom line is that McConnell is unexpectedly very vulnerable and the DSCC will make the most of that.

• IL-14 special election set

Another special election is coming up in IL-14 with similar circumstances: conservative district and Republicans favored. Democrats will surely attempt to push Republicans to panic in Illinois as well, but the GOP has at least won round 1 and managed to avoid bad timing for the special election.

Democrats were hoping that the general election would be held on February 5th, day of the presidential primary that should have a much bigger Democratic turnout given Obama's presidential candidacy. But Rep. Dennis Haster waited long enough to effectively resign that the calendar would have been much too cramped. Governor Blagojevitch had no choice today but to schedule the general election to March 8th. Just like OH-05, the GOP starts off favored here. If things pick up, they probably will not until some time in February.

Morning polls: Is Mitch McConnell really that vulnerable?

The Kentucky Senate race is currently rated 15 on my senate rankings. I was preparing to move it up a few slots, but that was more because of other races looking much less competitive than because I believed the situation in KY had changed significantly. But a new poll out today -- the first I have seen testing actual match-ups -- suggests that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in for a tough fight.

The poll, ordered by Herald-Leader/Action News 36, is an independent survey, not a Democratic fantasy, and the numbers are show the extent of the Republican weakness:

• Mitch McConnell's disapproval rating for the first time exceeds his approval rating: 46% to 45%. A small difference, but a significant shift for a man who used to be very popular in his state. SUSA monthly polls have a similar finding, as McConell's approval dropped from 60% in February to 41% this month.
• Rep. Chandler, who unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 2003, is within 5 points of McConell: 46% to 41%. Only trouble, Chandler has made it very clear he has no intention of running.
• But no reason to panic for Democrats, for three Democrats who are strongly considering the race are also very strong: State Auditor Luallen, who is up for re-election in 10 days and has not ruled out a run, is also within 5 points: 45% to 40%.
• Attorney General Stumbo, who is the most likely to jump in the race (he has an explanatory committee and is looking to decide within the next few weeks) is behind 46% to 37%.
• And in perhaps the best sign that McConnell is vulnerable, he only leads by 11 against a veteran of the Iraq War, Horne, who is mostly unknown.

Most revealing, of course, is that McConnell cannot cross 50% against any candidate. Being under 50% is supposed to be a sign of vulnerablity for an incumbent, as undecideds tend to break for challengers, but failing to gather a majority against unknown candidates is definitely a sign something is wrong. The most likely explanation is that McConnell is being Dashle-ized. His new partisan position in DC is having a bad impact on his image back home. Reid is suffering from the same phenomenon in Nevada, but he is not up for re-election until 2010.

This is as much a sign of the weakness of Kentucky Republicans than of McConnell's personal vulnerability. GOP Gov. Fletcher is about to lose in a landslide in ten days, and devastating ads like this one are hurting the GOP brand dramatically by reminding voters of the extent of Fletcher's corruption. And Hillary should not be a weight on the ticket if she is the nominee, given recent polls that actually have her ahead in the state!

• Rasmussen has bad news for Clinton

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen had Clinton leading Giuliani by 7 and Thompson by 15 in its national poll. This confirmed the previous polls Rasmussen had taken, as well as other polls by other institutes that showed Clinton inching ahead of Giuliani in national match-ups. But today's Rasmussen numbers are a dramatic turnaround: Giuliani now leads Clinton 46% to 44%, and Clinton is only ahead of Thompson 47% to 45%. Yes, those are only one set of numbers, but the trendline is not good. Though Rasmussen points out that over the past 6 weeks of polling, Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 44% and Thompson 49% to 41%. The other bottom line: Until last week, the three major Democrats led all twelve match-ups against the four major Republicans in the latest Rasmussen polls. Now, two such "last match-ups" favor the Republicans: Obama-McCain and Clinton-Giuliani.