Saturday polls: Obama opens lead in NH, and why so many polls from WA?

After yesterday's Newsweek poll showing Obama enjoying a dramatic bounce, the USA Today/Gallup poll looks to be more in line with what we have been seeing from other institutes:

• Obama is leading McCain 50% to 44%, which is the margin the latest NBC and CBS polls found as well.
• Obama enjoys the support of a high 84% of registered Democrats, and has a 12% lead among independents.

The Newsweek poll had similar internal numbers for the different partisan groups, confirming the analysis I offered yesterday that partisan breakdown would be the key measure of this election. While Newsweek's poll found a stunningly strong breakdown for Democrats (55% of respondents described themselves as such versus 36% of Republicans), it is not out of line with SUSA's repeated findings of a massive swing towards Obama's party compared to the 2004 exit polls.

Meanwhile, a number of state polls were also released in the past 48 hours, some of them from crucial swing states:

• In New Hampshire, Obama has opened a big lead according to Rasmussen's latest poll. He is ahead 50% to 39%, up from a 5% lead last month.

• In Nevada, Rasmussen finds McCain holding on to a lead, 45% to 42%. This is down from a 6% lead last month.
  
• Obama's favorability rating is only at 50%, versus 58% for McCain.

• In Iowa, SUSA finds Obama leading 49% to 45%, somewhat of a disappointing result given that some Democrats believe Obama is in a position to put this Bush state away early.
  
• Update: A commenter makes the good point that I should have thought about that polls from Iowa when the state is flooded cannot possibly be reliable.
  

• In California, nothing much has changed since 2004 according to SUSA's latest poll. Obama is ahead 53% to 41%, including a 65% to 26% lead among Hispanics and a 42% gender gap.
  

• Finally, SUSA released a poll from Washington, again. It shows Obama leading McCain 55% to 40%, which is the margin he has enjoyed in most other polls from the state.

Washington is vying for the title of the most-polled state this cycle. SUSA is releasing a poll from the state every two weeks, and we now have a lot of data points confirming that Obama has successfully put the state away. However much McCain wanted to contest it, the state's move back to the safe-blue column (which had already helped Kerry in 2004) is continuing. Do we really need this many polls from the state to confirm that?

The polls from Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa are certainly more interesting for it is in these states that the election should be decided. While Ohio and Florida certainly hold more electoral votes, Obama will need an alternative path if those 47 electoral votes stay in McCain's column, one made up of smaller states like NV, NH and IA. Keeping New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes might not seem to be that important a priority, but the state is among the only vulnerable Kerry states from 2004. And it would enable Obama to win the election by pulling out Iowa and Nevada and just one other (say, New Mexico). Polls in Iowa have been favorable to the Democrat over the past few months, though Republicans must be relieved that they are still in a position to contest that one. And Nevada polls have been showing a very narrow advantage for the GOP candidate.

State of the race: Obama's biggest lead yet is reminder of the shifts in partisan breakdown and of the long odds McCain faces

A new national poll released by Newsweek this evening ensured that the media finally have a data point to cite when insisting that Barack Obama is enjoying a post-nomination bounce:

• Barack Obama leads John McCain by 15 percent, 51% to 36%. This includes 80% of the vote of registered Democrats and a 12% lead among independents.
  
• The poll does note that, while John Kerry led George Bush by only 6% at this stage four years ago, Michael Dukakis was ahead of George H. W. Bush by double-digits at the end of June of 1988.

There are no other national polls even coming close to Newsweek's finding, which for now is more of an outlier. And it would be entirely point out that large leads 5 months before to the election mean nothing. But what does mean something, what is truly fascinating and is not an outlier, in this survey is the sample's partisan breakdown: 55% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats and 36% as Republicans.

Under normal conditions, such a breakdown would be too unrealistic to taint the poll's results. Not in 2008. All pollsters are finding a shift in voters' allegiance towards the Democratic Party, though the size of that shift varies in different surveys. This will be the key measure to look at in the coming months. While a 19% advantage for Democrats might seem excessive, most of SUSA's state polls are finding a swing of 10 to 15% compared to 2004's exit poll.

If Newsweek's and SUSA's findings are at all correct, it means that Democrats have gained such a gigantic advantage in partisan affiliation that it will be nearly impossible for McCain to win this election. Voters' partisan identification will not change over the next 6 months, and they reveal the enormity of the task of hand for McCain to put together a winning coalition: He has to maintain Bush's margin among registered Republicans while significantly distancing Obama among independents and also capture a substantial share of the Democratic vote.

If McCain fails to do live up to any of the part of this equation, he will be buried by 2008's overwhelmingly anti-GOP environment.

The good news for the Republican candidate: He has been able to put the pieces together in most polls that had been released up to this week, enjoying cross-over Democratic support and a slight lead among independents. This shows that McCain still seems like enough of a maverick to over-perform his party and no doubt poll better than what any other Republican nominee would have been able to.

The bad news for McCain: Obama is now increasing his support among registered Democrats -- and that alone could put the election out of reach. This is the Republicans' key disadvantage this election: Given how much the ranks of registered Democrats have increased, this election will be played out among that constituency more than among independents. (Almost) all Obama has to do is defend his home turf; McCain has to seduce the opposite camp.

That it is Obama who is looking to expand the map to traditionally Republican states like North Dakota, Indiana and Georgia is thus understandable cause for panic for the GOP. Obama does not need the support of cross-over Republicans, but by putting McCain on the defensive he will force the Arizona Senator to protect his base while the vote of registered Democrats remains less contested.

Given the structural obstacles McCain is facing this year, what is surprising is that he is trailing by 15% in only one poll. It is a testament to McCain's electoral strength that he is remaining competitive in most surveys that are being released and that Obama's post-nomination bounce has for now been limited to a few points. But in the end, McCain is dragged down by Bush in 2008 just as much as he was in 2000.

Tuesday polls: Obama pulls ahead in OH and is competitive in NC, while Franken and McConnell are in trouble

Finally, after weeks of being bombarded by polls from New York, Kansas and Washington State, someone thought to poll the presidential race in Ohio – and it brings welcome news to Obama’s campaign:

• Public Policy Polling released its first survey in quite a while and it shows Barack Obama trouncing John McCain 50% to 39%. As usual, Obama is weaker among registered Dems (73%) than McCain is among registered Republicans (83%). Obama is leading by 13% among independents, however. As for potential VP picks, respondents seem more inclined to be swayed by Hillary Clinton than by their governor Ted Strickland.
• Update: A commenter points out that this survey was in the field on the 17th and 18th of May. This is very strange indeed, as it represents more than a 3 week delay... Did PPP not even poll Hillary Clinton against McCain then? At the time, most pollsters did.
  

A long series of polls showing Obama weak in Ohio or at least significantly underperforming Clinton (including PPP's most recent survey released in March, repeated waves of Quinnipiac's polls and Rasmussen's May poll) was interrupted by SUSA's showing Obama comfortably ahead of McCain mid-May. PPP's poll is the first since then. Given how much care the Obama campaign is putting in cultivating alternative electoral maps that do would not require victory in Florida and Ohio, the state's 20 electoral votes almost seem like they would be a bonus that would all but ensure the Democrat's victory -- though with McCain's apparent strength in Michigan, it is essential for Democrats to contest Ohio to offset a potential disaster in Michigan.

The day's other important presidential poll is the much-discussed ABC/Washignton Post national poll:

• Barack Obama leads 48% to 42%, a margin that is little moved since ABC's previous poll, suggesting there has been little movement since the Democrat wrapped up his nomination. The WaPo is emphasizing the fact that the two candidates are tied among independents.
• Another national poll, released by Cook/RT Strategies, shows Obama leading 44% to 40%.

Last week, after the NBC polled found Obama leading by 6%, I criticized the obsession with pointing out that Kerry had never led in NBC polls in 2004 and that Bush had never beeh ahead by that much either. I pointed out that, in many other polls, Kerry had a clear lead in the early summer and that Bush was repeatedly ahead by 9-11% in September. The ABC poll is a case in point: Now, everyone is pointing out that John Kerry had the same lead in an ABC poll taken at this time four years ago. So which is it? Is an Obama lead significant because Kerry never led or significant because he was the favorite? It is important to look at a pollster's trendlines because of methodology and turnout models, but the pollster-specific comparisons of surveys that are four years apart does not seem to me to be particularly helpful.

What is somewhat significant in recently released national polls is that predictions by strategists from both camps that Obama could open a double-digit lead in the weeks after becoming the nominee have not come true, though the Democrat is consistently ahead. But it is the electoral college, of course, that will determine the winner and two important state polls were released today besides Ohio’s:

• In North Carolina, polls are now consistently showing McCain’s leading hovering around the margin of error. The latest Civitas poll finds him barely ahead 45% to 41%, with Bob Barr polling in at 2%. Last month, McCain was up by 5%.


• In Minnesota, SUSA finds Obama struggling to pull ahead, coming in at 47% against 46% for McCain. He was ahead by 5% in a poll taken two weeks ago, though that swing is within the margin of error. The big difference is the flip of the indie vote.

It is difficult to imagine North Carolina flipping if a state like Virginia does not, underscoring how close to a blow-out victory Obama would get if he keeps NC this close through November. As for Minnesota, so much for my speculations that Obama might be putting away the “Dukakis 5,” though it’s worth pointing out that most other recent MN surveys finding a more comfortable lead for Obama. But it is SUSA’s Senate poll from this state that has got to worry Democrats:

• Norm Coleman has opened up a significant lead against Al Franken, 52% to 40%, though this is stable from last month's poll that showed the Democrat trailing 52% to 42%. Franken loses the independent vote 60% to 33%.
  
• If Jesse Ventura jumps in the race (it is the second time this week this match-up is polled), Franken trails 41% to 31% with 23% for Ventura. In a sure sign of trouble for Franken, Mike Ciresi, a Democrat who dropped out of the race in February, polls slightly better than him against Coleman: 50% to 40%.

• Also today, Rasmussen released a survey of Alaska's Senate race, finding Ted Stevens surviving 46% to 44% against Mark Begich, who was narrowly ahead 47% to 45% last month. Other surveys have found larger leads for Begich.

Al Franken has been suffering through months of bad press, as controversies over tax disclosures, a 2000 essay in Playboy and a 1995 joke on rape erupted in recent weeks. Yet, polls found little movement in this (very often) polled race. But SUSA's survey is obviously bad news for the Democratic challenger as it goes along the narrative of a sinking campaign. That Franken polls roughly at the same level as a candidate who has not been campaigning for 5 months suggests that he is now underperforming the level of a generic Democrat.

Update: SUSA just released a fascinating new poll from Kentucky:

• In the presidential race, John McCain leads Obama 53% to 41%. This is a huge progression from a May poll in which Obama trailed by 24%. Look no further than the vote of registered Democrat, Obama has gone from... 48% to 59%! Still a very low number, but one that is now in line with what you would expect in Kentucky.
• In the Senate race, however, Mitch McConnell is only ahead of Bruce Lunsford 50% to 46%!

I for one have long remained unconvinced that Lunsford would be a real threat to McConnell, and given how nightmarish he would be for progressives, it is certainly my top wish among GOP-held seats. But this now the second poll that finds Lunsford to be very competitive and there is no doubt that unseating the Minority Leader would be a huge upset. Given that the DSCC is looking for second and third-tier seats to make competitive to have a shot at 60, this is not the last we will hear of Kentucky.

NBC's much-discussed general election poll and the likely dynamics of the 2008 campaign

NBC released its national poll last night and it has become the talk of the town ever since. Why? Itis the first (non-tracking) national poll to have been conducted after Obama won the nomination, though it went on the field on June 6th, a full day before Clinton's unity speech.

• The poll shows Barack Obama to be ahead 47% to 41%.
  
• The gender gap is large: Obama wins women by 19%, McCain wins men by 20%. Obama is also leading among Hispanics (62% to 28%, which is a very important lead given talk that McCain might be stronger than other Republicans among Latinos) and independents by 5%.
• In case of a Clinton-McCain match-up, the Democrat takes the lead 49% to 40%. In a match-up between Obama/Clinton and McCain/Romney, the Dem ticket is ahead 51% to 42%.

• Today, the new Hotline poll shows Obama ahead 44% to 42% ina poll taken from the 5th to the 8th. This is actually a decline since his 4% lead in May.
  
• In a disappointing sign for Obama, voters trust McCain more when it comes the war 49% to 41% despite trusting the Democratic Party by 12% more. Similarly, Obama has a 6% edge over the economy despite a 26% edge for his party.
  

Republicans are expressing part-relief that the bounce is not larger (though, as I noted, the poll was only partly taken after Clinton's concession) and part-worry that Obama might never look back now that he has the lead. There is also a fair amount of talk about the fact that this is a very significant margin because Bush or Kerry supposedly never had leads like this. I just want to debunk this argument. It is true, as First Read points out, that Bush never trailed in NBC polls in 2004 and never had a lead of 6%. But most of us remember that (1) Kerry had opened up a lead in July/early August and (2) Bush had opened up a big lead in September in many polls, up to the first debate in which Kerry bounced back. A CNN/Gallup poll had Bush leading by 14% in September (check their history) and by 7-8% at other points in the month. Other pollsters released survey at the same time (including CBS) that had Bush leading by 8% and 9%. So talk that 2004 never saw a lead by either candidate isn't correct.

Also, the 2004 election was largely defined by Bush, a very clearly defined incumbent about whom opinions were crystallized. It is thus not surprising that numbers remained relatively stable throughout the election and that there were just 2-3 big swings (one in mid-August towards Bush, one end of September towards Kerry). 2008 is not 2004. McCain and Obama are both largely undefined and their numbers will evolve through the cycle. This is certainly not to say that Obama will lose. In fact, he is favored to win. Perhaps he will indeed never trail in national polls again. But that certainly won't be because of any similarity with what happened in 2004.

The national environement is very favorable to Obama and Democrats have been favored to win this election for months -- even years -- now. There have been countless reports that the Democratic Party has gained a huge advantage in partisan breakdown over the past four years. The make-up of SUSA's polls shows a double-digit gain by the party compared to 2004 exit polls, numbers that will be accentuated by the registration drives of the past few months (Gallup just released an analysis with the same finding). As long as Obama holds on to his base and does not fall too much behind among independents, the election should be his. The only reason Republicans are not trailing by double-digits is because McCain is the strongest candidate they could have nominated.

The GOP is very well aware of this fact and it knows that its only chance is to define Barack Obama in very negative terms to make him an unacceptable choice among a significant portion of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (given how excited conservative blogs are getting about Obama's birth certificate, we know where some Republicans plan to take this). And the Hotline poll I referred to above does point some major vulnerability areas for Obama as he significantly underperforms a "generic Democrat" and the trust in the Democratic Party. Until the GOP launches a full-scale effort and until Obama weathers it, it is foolish to confidently assert that the Democratic nominee will never look back. Dukakis, after all, led by 19% in the summer of 1988 until a nasty (and racially driven) campaign derailed him.

The Democrats' advantage this year is that they can do the same thing to McCain and have plenty of money to redefine him. McCain enjoys a loosely defined "maverick image" but it is not firmy anchored and his opponents believe they can undermine by showing his ties with Bush, emphasizing his pro-life record and playing on his hawkish sound bites. The discipline with which the Obama campaign has been conducting this offensive confirms that McCain should expect no mercy.

All of this is a recipe for volatility, in either direction, but with the clear understanding that Obama is favored. Depending on who defines the other camp the best, the election could swing anywhere between an Obama blow-out and a narrow McCain victory.

Presidential polls: Tracking the bounce

The expectation that Obama would enjoy a bounce after Clinton's concession had been set for months, with the McCain campaign trying to increase the pressure by publicly stating that it expects Obama to surge ahead as he is declared the Democratic nominee. We do not yet have enough polling data to determine how high Obama will rise but can certainly start monitoring the polls. For now, today's national polls find mixed results.

The two tracking polls have found Obama gaining since last Tuesday, when he clinched his party's nod. Both Rasmussen and Gallup find him leading by 6 percent (50% to 44% for the former, 48% to 42% for the latter). This margin is the largest Obama has achieved in Gallup's tracking poll. While this is a very favorable sign for Obama, it is worth noting that Democrats expect to see more of a bounce as the level which Obama will achieve will be regarded as a sort of ceiling. As the campaign gets settled in general election mode in the coming days and as the reality of Clinton's withdrawal sets in, we will see whether Obama can open up more of lead.

At the state level, five polls were released today -- none showing surprising results though we have some interesting findings:

• In South Carolina, a Rasmussen poll shows McCain to be leading 48% to 39%.
  

• In Wisconsin, the race is very tight with Obama edging out McCain 45% to 43%. A month ago, McCain led 47% to 43%.
  
• Both candidates have a high favorable rating here, with McCain posting a particularly strong 60%. Obama is at 55%.

• In New Jersey, Obama leads 48% to 39%. Rasmussen found McCain slightly ahead 46% to 45% in late March so this is a net progression for Obama though it places him where we expect him to be.
• Here again, the candidates have high favorability rating: 60% for Obama (36% very favorable) and 59% for McCain (though only 18% very favorable).

• In Texas, McCain is ahead 52% to 39%. A month ago, he was only leading by 5%. As I will soon write about, the Senate race has also dramatically swung towards the GOP, implying that there is a sampling difference between the two surveys.
  
• 38% of Texas have a very unfavorable view of the Illinois Senator.
  

• Finally, a poll from Indiana shows that McCain starts ahead, 47% to 38%, in a state Bush won by 20%.
  

Of these five states, only Wisconsin is rated as a toss-up in my latest electoral college ratings, a status that is confirmed by this poll. Some Democrats believe Obama should be stronger than previous Democrats in one of his most crucial primary victories, but his strength with Midwestern independents should help him put Minnesota out of play before Wisconsin and we should expect that the latter stay competitive to the end.

As for the four others, they are all states that Obama and McCain want to believe they can make competitive: The Democratic advantage in New Jersey has been diminishing and, though the state has not been kind to Republicans, McCain's strength among independents could help him in the Garden State. As for South Carolina, it should be the last of the Southern states where Obama wants to increase black turnout to fall (after NC and GA). In Texas, it is possible that Obama will choose to spend some resources to force the race into single-digits and force McCain to spend a lot more than he would want to defending a must-win state for the GOP.

Poll roundup: Will there be a bouce?

As I explained two days ago, I am skeptical of arguments that securing the nomination will automatically resolve Barack Obama's problems with the registered Democratic vote, but that does not mean that the Illinois Senator will not enjoy a substantial bounce in the coming days and weeks. We will then have to see how the bounce lasts and whether it gets Obama to his full potential. For now, use these polls -- some of which are very interesting on their own right -- as markers of where the campaign lied as of early June.

Keep in mind also that any bounce Obama will get will come from (1) the Democratic Party uniting and (2) the boost that any candidate derives from victory. I don't buy the argument that McCain has been campaigning for the general election for months but Obama hasn't and that he will therefore improve his percentages. He will certainly improve his general election organization, turnout efforts and registration drive, but that has little to do with poll numbers for now. If anything, McCain has been out of the spotlight and struggling to attract any attention since mid-February, whereas Obama has been airing dozens of ads in key swing states worth millions of dollars. He was campaigning against Clinton, sure, but many of these spots were meant to introduce himself to voters and having already aired those will be useful in the general election as well.

First, the latest NYT/CBS poll and USA Today/Gallup will be widely discussed because of their strong reputation:

• In the field from May 30th to June 3rd, the CBS/NYT poll did not register any effect Tuesday night might have had. Obama is leading McCain 48% to 42%.
• As for favorability ratings, both candidates have a lot of neutral respondents -- much more than usual. Obama's rating stands at a strong 41-31, while McCain is much weaker, 34-37.
  

• In the USA/Today Gallup poll, Obama is leading 46% to 43%. Clinton fares better in what is probably the last national poll in which she will be included, trailing 49% to 43%.
  

Republicans have long been worried that Obama might open up a double-digit lead nationally once he wraps up the nomination. If that is correct, the fact that he already leads by mid-single digits should worry the GOP. But Republicans are also more hopeful about the state-by-state situation and their chances in the electoral college. As my first ratings yesterday afternoon showed, that race is a toss-up, with McCain ahead by a slight 227 to 207 electoral votes. A few polls all released by SUSA on Tuesday give us a better sense of the situation in those states (these polls were taken to test VP match-ups which I will not report fully since I do not find interesting at all; most match-ups only test name recognition):

• In New York, Obama leads McCain 48% to 38%, with only 66% of registered Democrats. This is the same margin Obama has enjoyed for two months now, and it is naturally too close for comfort in one of the Democrats' strongest states nationally.
• Depending on the VP match-ups, the range goes from +1 Obama (if McCain picks Romney and Obama picks Hagel) to +20 Obama.

• In Massachusetts, Obama continues to look stunningly weak as he barely distances McCain 46% to 41%, with the support of 65% of registered Democrats.
• Depending on the VP match-ups, the range goes from +1 Obama (once again if he picks Hagel) to +16 Obama. Huckabee fares a bit better than Mitt Romney, the state's former Governor.

• In Missouri, Obama edges out McCain 45% to 43% with 74% of registered Democrats.
• Depending on VP match-ups, the range goes from +11 McCain to +11 Obama. Only Edwards improves Obama's vote total, but that is entirely a factor of name recognition.

• In Iowa, Obama is leading 47% to 38%. He has been ahead in every single one of the 10 polls SUSA has taken starting in February 2007, most of them by substantial margins.

• Finally, an Alabama poll confirms this state will not be paid attention to in the general election. McCain crushes Obama 57% to 34%, as the Illinois Senator only gets 19% of the white vote.

The Massachusetts poll confirms my rating of Massachusetts as only "likely Obama" despite the state's reputation as the country's most staunchly Democratic. It is difficult to explain why this is the one state in which Obama's weakness is so consistent. Rasmussen's survey last week found Obama up 13% but that paled in comparison to previous cycles and to Clinton's 30% lead in the same poll. As for Iowa, this poll confirms that this is the one 2004 Bush state that is already leaning towards Democrats, not to mention how strong Obama's organization in the state ever since the caucus campaign. Finally, Missouri is a good surprise for Obama as it is a state I have rated "lean McCain." Most other polls taken in the past few weeks show the Arizona Senator ahead in that state and it remains to be seen how strongly Obama will push there.

Another observation about these polls is the increase in the percentage of undecideds. The trendline in most of them shows a decrease in the totals of both McCain and Obama, which is not necessarily what we would be expecting after months of campaigning.

Finally, one last poll for the day concerns the North Carolina Senate race. It is an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt Research for the Hagan campaign and it was in the field mid-May, at the time other polls showed very narrow Dole advantages and before the Republican incumbent started airing ads of her own: In this survey, Dole leads 48% to 44%. Since then, a poll taken more recently showed her slightly expanding her lead, a possible consequence of the advertising blitz. But since I am still the phase of slight surprise at every survey that shows that yes, indeed, Dole is vulnerable, this poll is certainly useful.

Thursday poll: The Michigan question, continued, and Mississippi's racial puzzle

A number of state polls were released today, none more important than EPIC-MRA's Michigan poll. EPIC is the state's best pollster, and its numbers confirm the analysis I wrote 24 hours ago of the "Michigan question." No matter how unlikely a development given how hard the economic crisis has hit in Michigan, it does look like the state has joined Ohio and Pennsylvania as the holy trio of this year's battleground states:

• This poll shows McCain narrowly ahead of Obama 44% to 40%. He is largely leading among independents, 41% to 28%.
  
• However, in a match-up between an Obama/Clinton ticket and a McCain/Romney ticket, the Democrats shoot up to lead 51% to 44%.
  

There is nothing in these polls that suggests that Democrats are in terrible trouble in Michigan, but it is hard to deny that, considering the strong numbers Obama is posting in states like Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Oregon and Washington, Democrats were allowed to expect better results out of Michigan.

The second important poll of the day is a national survey by Pew, whose polls are always noteworthy because of the detailed crosstabs and analysis that the institute provides:

• Clinton is ahead of McCain 48% to 44%, while Obama leads 47% to 44%, down from a 6% lead last month and a 7% lead in February. Obama and McCain are tied among independents, though the former led by 9% last month.
• Also, 44% say that McCain would continue Bush's policies, versus 45% who say that he will not. Obama is viewed as more capable on the economy, while the two are within the margin of error on Iraq.
  

Obama continues to enjoy a very small edge in most national polls, but the election clearly remains a toss-up at this point. It is had to determine who should be the most relieved: Obama that he has survived such a tough primary and weeks of bad press on Wright and Ayers while still looking competitive, or McCain for being largely ignored by the media since February and for running in such an awful year for his party but still looking like he has a road to win.

A series of other polls was released from states that are less central to the fall campaign:

• In Kansas, SUSA found McCain leading 49% to 39%, which is actually a very respectable showing for Obama in a staunchly red state. SUSA also tried some VP match-ups, but Governor Sibelius does not particularly help Obama. The closest he gets is a 2% loss if McCain chooses Pawlenty and he chooses Edwards.
  

• In New York, Rasmussen finds both Democrats crushing McCain, though Obama's margin is a bit inferior to Clinton's. He leads 52% to 33% while she trounces McCain 59% to 29%. Obama's favorability raitng (64%) is superior to Clinton's (55%) and McCain's (44%).

• No surprises in Alabama, where Rasmussen finds McCain leading Clinton 54% to 34% and Obama 60% to 32%.

• Finally, a last Rasmussen poll from Mississippi finds surprisingly tight results: McCain is ahead of Clinton 48% to 38% and leads Obama 50% to 44%. McCain's favorability rating (55%) is superior to Clinton's (33%) and Obama's (44%).
  

Mississippi is a state some Democrats murmur could be competitive in the fall, though it is hard to see where Obama would get the remaining 6%. Mississippi's vote is among the country's most racially polarized, and it should be so even more with a black candidate on the ballot. Obama will need a humongous surge in turnout among black voters (which would not just mean for African-Americans to vote at their level of the population, but for black turnout to be superior to white turnout) and he will also need to poll somewhat better among white voters than past Democratic candidates.

This is a tall order for Obama in any Southern states, but if it looks like he is on the path to making numbers move and results tighten in Mississippi, it could mean that he is in much better shape than expected in other states with a very large black population, especially Georgia and South Carolina. Both states are still safely in the McCain column, but the Obama campaign is planning massive registration efforts and we will soon be able to better assess whether there is any chance that numbers move in the Deep South.

Thursday polls: Color Arkansas red

The first general-election poll from Arkansas last summer made it clear that this would be the one state which would undoubtedly go from "Safe Democratic" to "Safe Republican" depending on the identity of the Democratic nominee. Arkansas is voting like Hillary Clinton's home-state, more so than New York. It gave her 70% of its vote in the primary and a new general election poll confirms that she would be in a strong position to carry it in November:

• Rasmussen shows Clinton leading McCain 53% to 39% in this red state. McCain, however, leads Obama 57% to 33%, a 38 percent gap.
• Clinton's favorablility rating is at 60%, including 35% who have a very favorable view of her (14% for McCain).
  

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, it looks like we can color Arkansas red (perhaps it could get competitive if he chooses Hillary or Clark as his vice-president?). But two new polls from Washington and Iowa confirm that those are two states in which Obama is well positioned, as they have been two states in which most polls show him faring considerably better:

• In Washington State, SUSA shows Obama leading McCain 54% to 42%. Clinton is ahead 49% to 45%. Obama is polling better among registered Republicans and independents. The margins are roughly what they were a month ago.
  

• In Iowa, Rasmussen finds a tight race within the margin of error for both candidates. Clinton trails McCain 45% to 42% and Obama leads 44% to 42%. Both races have tightened since last month.

McCain is looking to make Washington and Oregon competitive despite both states voting against Bush twice. Judging by this poll it will be difficult for him to do so because Obama has a firm grasp among the registered Democrat vote -- that is not the case in every state, so McCain would have more potential success by concentrating on purple/blue state where Obama is weak among registered Dems (starting with Florida, the South and some places in the Midwest; but not the West).

Finally, national general election polls continue showing a slight edge for Democrats:

• Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain 47% to 40%; Clinton is ahead 46% to 41%.
• POS/GQR finds Clinton trailing by 1% and Obama leading 48% to 43%.
• An ABC News/Washington Post poll has Clinton leading 49% to 46% and Obama ahead 51% to 44%.
• Gallup, however, finds Obama and McCain tied at 45% while Clinton is leading 48% to 45%.

It will be interesting to see whether national pollsters decide to not include Clinton in a poll before she drops out. My guess is that they will continue including her for fear of being criticized, but we'll keep an eye on that too. By the way, it is always remarkable to see McCain competitive at all in some of these polls considering the internal numbers many of the polls include and that reveal just how awful an environment Republicans are facing in the fall. It does look like only McCain could have made this tight -- and the question now is whether he can save anything for the GOP in down-the-ballot races.

Slow day in polls and superdelegate news

Sunday is a slow news day. After 17 superdelegate endorsement in the space of 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, only 1 announced her support today: Young Democrat Crystal Strait announced she was endorsing Barack Obama explaining that, "Barack Obama has shown a real commitment to young voters in his campaign and in response young people have overwhelmingly voted and caucused for Obama in these primary contests."

However expected, this endorsement gets Obama one vote closer to the nomination as the pool of uncommitted superdelegates continues to decrease. Note also that 46 superdelegates (about a sixth of the total of "uncomnitted superdelegates) have yet to be chosen because they are add-ons states in which the state party has not yet finalized selections. Most of the add-ons (though by no means all) that are designated tend to already be supporters of a candidate, so the pool of superdelegates that Obama and Clinton are hoping to convince is even smaller than it looks; this is obviously bad news for Hillary.

Meanwhile, three new general election polls have been released this week-end. First, the LA Times-Bloomberg national poll:

• Both Democrats lead McCain. Clinton leads 47% to 38%, while Obama is ahead 46% to 40%.

• Clinton performs much better among voters with an income of less than $40K: She leads 50% to 29% while Obama is only ahead 43% to 45%. Among the highest-income group, however, Obama is slightly stronger than Clinton: She trails by 6, he trails by 1.

• The two Democrats also differ based on gender (Clinton leads by 21% among women, trails by 12% among men, Obama leads by 13% and trails b 3%), partisan affiliation (Obama is 9% weaker among registered Democrats but 10% stronger among independents). Contrary to what we might think, it looks like Obama's weakness among Dems comes from people who identify themselves as liberal (he is 13% weaker in that group), so not necessarily the white blue-collar base.

With the Democratic primary drawing to a close, polls testing both Clinton and Obama will become more rare so this might be one of our last opportunities to reiterate how different Clinton and Obama's general-election coalitions are and how remarkable it is that the two Democrats are arriving at roughly the same final numbers poll after poll considering the different paths they take to get there. Obama's relative weakness among women, registered Democrats and lower-income voters is compensated by his relative strength among men, independents and higher-income voters.

What this confirms is how different their two electoral maps would have looked and how the electability difference rests on a state-by-state basis rather than a national analysis. Rasmussen's new general election poll from Oregon, for example, confirms that Obama is much stronger in the Northwest (Oregon and Washington):

• Obama has opened a double-digit lead, 51% to 39%. Clinton has strengthened her position and leads 46% to 40%. Last month, McCain led Clinton by 6% and Obama led McCain by the same margin. Obama has always looked strong in Oregon.

• Rasmussen also polled Michigan, however, and finds troubling news for Democrats as McCain continues to be surprisingly strong. He edges out Obama by 1 percent, 45% to 44%, and is tied with Clinton at 44%.
  

Conventional wisdom would hold that Oregon is a tighter state than Michigan in the general election, but Obama's appeal to Western independents could help him put the Northwest away, concentrating on a state like Colorado; but he certainly cannot afford to lose a state with as many electoral votes as Michigan and the GOP is certainly preparing to make the argument that Obama was nominated on the back of Michigan voters if the DNC does not resolve the rogue primary mess in the weeks ahead.

Week-end polls: Democrats up big in NYT poll; are Sens. Dole and Cornyn vulnerable?

After a quite Sunday in which I chose to only reflect on the victory of Don Cazayoux, it is time to delve right back in the Democratic primaries; after all, polls in Indiana and North Carolina open in 24 hours. We are likely to receive a deluge of polls from the May 6th states today, so let me get Sunday's polls out of the way before the political day starts, starting with Zogby's latest round of tracking polls:

• Zogby continues to find the two upcoming primaries to be remarkably stable. In North Carolina, Obama is now ahead by 8%, 48% to 40% -- a one percent tightening in the past 24 hours.

• In Indiana, Zogby has Obama narrowly ahead once again, 44% to 42%. Zogby is the only institute to find Clinton trailing at this point.
  
• Clinton only leads 46% to 39% among white voters with 15% undecided; her margin among white voters in other polls is much larger, suggesting that a significant portion of these undecided voters could be a reservoir of votes for her. Whether they go to the polls as they did in Pennsylvania or stay at home will determine Tuesday's results.

Clinton is managing to hold on to a single-digit margin in North Carolina -- a gap that is confirmed by most other polls that have been released over the past week; that would do her no good, however, if she cannot prevail in Indiana. Keep in mind that most of the latest polls we have seen from both of these states were taken during or in the immediate aftermath of Wright's second round of appearances and of Obama's denouncing his former pastor. Whether these events are continuing to impact voters or whether they have already faded will determine whether last week's polls (which were moving towards Clinton) will remain relevant today and tomorrow. If they do not, Clinton could be in trouble as expectations have shifted due to last week's good polling results. For now, the only indication we have is that Obama has retaken the lead he had lost on April 27th in Gallup's tracking poll.

Meanwhile, New York Times/CBS released its second poll in two weeks and found both Democrats expanding their general election lead to stunning margins:

• Obama leads McCain 52% to 41% while Clinton is ahead 53% to 41%.
  

• 60% of all voters and 68% of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Obama handled the Wright situation; 9% of Democrats said that Wright would "matter a great deal" to them should Obama become the nominee.

While Democrats are more used to leading than trailing over the past few months, such a comfortable margin is certainly not in line with the conventional wisdom -- nor is it confirmed by other polls taken in the past few weeks. Democrats will understandably take the survey as a morale booster but until other polls suggest that the Democratic nominee has emerged with a clear edge keep in mind rules about margins of error and statistical variations.

Finally, three very interesting Senate polls to reoprt this morning:

• First, SUSA polled the Minnesota Senate race and found Norm Coleman maintaining a double-digit lead against Al Franken, 52% to 42%.
  

• Second, a Research 2000 poll in North Carolina finds Elizabeth Dole struggling to open a lead against both her Democratic rivals; she is ahead 48% to 41% against Kay Hagan and 47% to 37% against Jim Neal. The Democratic primary is Tuesday.

• Third, Rasmussen published a stunning survey of the Texas Senate race, finding Senator John Cornyn leading his challenger Rick Noriega 47% to 43% only.
  

After a series of poll in mid-February showed a toss-up race in Minnesota, Rasmussen and SUSA have recently found Coleman to be back in a comfortable lead over the past two months. This is paradoxically also the time in which Franken pretty much secured his party's nomination. Note that there are some weird crosstabs in this poll: Coleman gets 99% of the GOP vote (which seems an unlikely proposition) and Franken gets 67% of the Demoratic vote, leaving him far behind despite a 24% lead among independents.

It is surprising to see Elizabeth Dole kept under 50% and in single-digits while Coleman enjoys a double-digit margin in a high-profile race against a well-funded opponent. Polls have disagreed on how vulnerable Dole is to a challenge this fall but Democrats have to be frustrated that they did not do a better recruitment operation here, as all the candidates that could have made the race really competitive declined to run. We shall know more about what to expect from this race once Democrats select their nominee tomorrow.

As for Texas, the Cornyn-Noriega race is considered a sleeper by Democratic activists but even they would recognize that it is at best a second tier race right now. There is little confirmation besides this poll that the incumbent is this vulnerable (more than Coleman and Dole, according to this wave of poll); previous surveys have found Cornyn leading by double-digits without beign able to open up a commanding lead. If Democrats manage to just make one of either North Carolina or Texas competitive, it would already be a huge and unexpected accomplishment.

Zogby delivers its first tracking polls, contradicts the newly developing CW

The past few days were bringing increasingly good polling news for Hillary Clinton. Not only was she building a comfortable lead in Indiana but a number of polls suggested she was benefiting from a lot of movement in her favor in North Carolina, with Insider Advantage going as far as coming out with her leading by 2% -- a result that would have the potential of truly rocking the primary! But Zogby's first wave of tracking polls from IN and NC finds the race to be exactly where Obama wants it to be:

• In Indiana, Clinton and Obama are tied at 42%.
  
• In North Carolina, Obama has a large lead, 50% to 34%. Clinton is found with only a 10% lead among white voters (47% to 37%), a significant difference with other polls we have seen this week.

• Research 2000, meanwhile, finds the race to be closer in North Carolina, with Obama up in single-digits, 51% to 44%. This is the same margin Mason-Dixon came out with this afternoon.

Zogby's polls were conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so they are the first surveys to potentially register the impact of Obama denouncing Wright; if so, it would bode well for Obama's hopes of putting the controversy behind him, at least until Tuesday. We will obviously need much more polling to confirm any such trend, and keep in mind that Zogby's track record has not been great over the past few months; though they nailed Pennsylvania, their tracking polls leading up to April 22nd had the state much tighter than other polls were suggesting. For now, let's take Zogby's polls as the Obama-end of the current polling spectrum, with Insider Advantage representing the Clinton-end; if the results do come in on the Obama-end and confirm Zogby's findings, Clinton would be in big trouble come Wednesday morning.

If Clinton does survive May 6th, she can look forward to West Virginia (on the 13th) and Kentucky (on the 20th); but she will also have to play a game "on the road" as Oregon, a state in which Obama is heavily favored, votes on the 20th as well. I have previously explained my sense that Clinton could keep Oregon much closer than people expect; it is a closed primary, after all, and people forget that Obama only won the Washington primary by about 5%. The only previous poll of the state, conducted by SUSA, showed Obama with a 10% lead. Three weeks later, SUSA strikes again and shows Clinton closing in on Obama:

• Obama is now leading 50% to 44%; he maintains a big lead among men, while Clinton is barely ahead among women. Also consider that Oregon is a state in which the Asian community could play a role -- and actually register as a statically meaningful group in the exit polls (Obama leads by 12% here, but the subgroup is too small).

Clinton is likely to get a great result in Kentucky; if Obama does not get a perception-changer in Oregon that same evening, he could be in trouble as the conversation would concentrate on his problems with white blue-collar voters (KY) rather than Clinton's weakness in the West.

Finally, let's conclude this second polling thread of the day with two national general election polls, as Pew and CNN, two reputed pollsters, both find Democrats leading all match-ups:

• CNN shows Obama leading McCain 49% to 45% while Clinton leads 49% to 44%.
• Pew finds Obama leading McCain 50% to 44% and Clinton leading 49% to 45%.
  
• Both polls have Obama edging out Clinton with a statistically insignificant lead (1% and 2% respectively) in a national primary match-up.

No electability comparison to be drawn by the numbers alone -- though the extent to which both Democrats get to similar final numbers by assembling very different voting coalitions is certainly remarkable (remember Gallup's finding that Clinton was losing among all educational groups with at least a college degree, while Obama losing all those without one... but they both ended up with the same results).

Wednesday polls: The battle for independents, and Kentucky is Clinton country

After 2 days filled with polls from Indiana and North Carolina, only one primary poll was released today. SUSA polled Kentucky for the third time, and confirms that this could be one of the biggest Clinton states:

• Clinton now leads Obama 63% to 27%. Two weeks ago, the margin was identical: 62% to 26%.
• Confirming that Obama's toughest region in the country is the Appalachians, he loses Eastern Kentucky 84% to 10%, implying there is a risk Obama might not be viable in at least one district.

If Hillary Clinton is still in the race after May 6th, it could mean two very rough weeks for Obama as results in West Virginia on the 13th and Kentucky on the 20th aren't likely to look very good for him. The demographics of these states will allow Clinton, if she lives up to the potential of this SUSA poll, to further her argument that Obama is too weak among white blue-collar voters to win the general election. Whether or not that hurts Obama among superdelegates, such conversation would continue to put him on the defensive.

National polls confirm that Clinton has found a second life since her Pennsylvania primary. Today's Gallup poll has Clinton edging out Obama 47% to 46% for the second day in a row; it had been quite a while Clinton had been on top two consecutive days. And Fox News's latest poll released today has Clinton leading 44% to 41%. These polls are obviously useless measures, since most states have already voted by now; but they still hint at the mood of the electorate and the two candidates' momentum.

Meanwhile, a series of general election surveys confirms how difficult it is to establish electability comparisons:

• Fox News finds Clinton edging out McCain nationally, 45% to 44%; Obama trails 46% to 43%. Among independents, a group Obama typically does better in, Clinton now performs better but McCain beats them both (by 4% against Clinton, by 10% against Obama).
• Interestingly, an Obama-Clinton ticket would beat a McCain-Romney ticket 47% to 41%, suggesting that Democrats would have an edge if they can present a united front.

• Update: A new New York Times poll was just released. It shows Obama leading Clinton 46% to 38% in the primary but it also shows Clinton running better in the general, leading McCain 48% to 43% while Obama and McCain are tied at 45%.
  

• A poll taken in AZ by Arizona State, meanwhile, finds McCain in single-digits against Obama, leading 47% to 38%. He leads against Clinton by a wider 53% to 37%.

• Finally, a somewhat surprising poll by Monmouth University from New Jersey finds McCain trounced by both candidates. He trails Obama 56% to 32% and Clinton 52% to 38%. The main difference between the two candidates is their strength among independents, as Clinton leads by 1% and Obama by 17%.

Most polls taken in New Jersey suggest a close race; the latest poll prior to this one has both Democrats ahead by 5% and McCain has been able to remain very competitive in Northeastern states. This poll thus looks to overstate the Democrats' advantage, but it still stands as a reminder of how tough the Garden State still is for Republicans; they seem to waste a lot of money only two years for very little rewards.

Meanwhile, the results in Arizona confirm that McCain starts clearly ahead and it would probably make little sense for Democrats to spend resources here; but I would not be surprised if the race ends up being more competitive here than the conventional wisdom suggests. You might remember that McCain did not even break 50% on February 5th, besting Romney by 12%; McCain seems to have some problems in his home state.