Clinton calls for unity and endorses Obama in a feminist speech

Freed from the imperatives of the campaign trail and the need to minimize the historic nature of her candidacy to be deemed credible in a male-dominated system, Hillary Clinton went further than usual in linking her efforts to women's rights today -- but not before delivering a strong endorsement of her former rival and pledging to work her heart out to make Barack Obama the next president.

In what is likely to be her last major speech until the convention (unless Obama selects her as his running mate, of course) Clinton spoke to loud applause and a cheering crowd, thanking her supporters and repeating some of the stories she is fond of telling on the campaign trail. And after announcing that she was suspending her campaign (a semantic choice that is meant to allow her to continue raising money to close off some of her debt), Clinton asked her supporters to "take our energy, our passion, our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States." She insisted, "I endorse him and throw my full support behind him." Just as she did at AIPAC on Wednesday, Clinton vouched for Obama, insisting that no one can do that better than her because "I've had a front-row seat to his candidacy and seen his strength and determination, his grace and his grit."

Clinton then listed the challenges the country faces (with a predictable emphasis on universal health care) insisting after each item that this is why Barack Obama must be elected president. While John McCain was never mentioned, the message was clear: No one who cares about ending the Iraq War or passing universal health care can go off and vote for the Republican ticket in November, however bitter they might be about the Democratic primary. Clinton insisted on the need to unite: "The Democratic Party is a family," she said, "and now it's time to restore the ties that bind us together, and to come together. We may have started on separate journeys but today our paths have merged."

Both parties know that the percentage of Clinton supporters that migrate to the GOP could determine the outcome of the November election. The McCain campaign has long been sending sign that they will aggressively play on the division lines that were made explicit by the long showdown between Clinton and Obama. Democrats believe that the party will unite and that the level of cross-overs will not be dramatically higher than in past cycles (Bush won about 10% of Democratic votes in 2004). How active Clinton is in the coming months will have a huge impact in resolving this battle, and the New York Senator knows that she will be closely watched for any sign that she is not working her "heart out," as she said. Any future role she wants to play in the party will require her to do everything she can to bring most of her 18 million supporters into the Obama campaign.

In particular, the female vote will be crucial to the general election campaign and whether female voters who supported Clinton feel that the primary campaign was too sexist could determine what they do in the fall. Women have long formed the backbone of the Democratic Party, and John Kerry's failure to beat Bush substantially among women is a key factor explaining his loss. That is why Clinton's decision to stray away from her usual stump speech and deliver a more overtly feminist address today is an important one for Clinton passionately explained how her campaign lifted barriers for women, even if it ended up ultimately unsuccessful.

"I was proud to be running as a woman but I was running because I thought I would be the best president," she said repeating her typical campaign line. "But," she continued as she never does, "but I am a woman and like millions of women I know there are still barriers and biases out there, often unconscious." She had never dwelt on the historic nature of her candidacy before, but there was no reason to shy away from that today as she expressed her joy that, "although we weren't able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you it's got about 18 million cracks in it." She celebrated the fact that, from now on, a woman winning a primary will be an "unremarkable" event, and she called on her supporters to overcome any bitterness they might harbor.

Whether this speech is sufficient to bring Clinton supporters back into the fold might very well determine whether Obama ends up selecting her as his running mate. In what was the paradox of Clinton's speech, its success would mean that Obama would no longer need to put her on the ticket to unify the party. Surely aware of this, Clinton sought to demonstrate her strength today. Not only did she make sure to carve her place in the party history, but she also reminded Obama of just how much she could do to help him with female voters and to vouch for him when the GOP attack machine gets going.

Clinton to suspend campaign, says goodbye to staff

Early this evening, the New York Times and ABC News are reporting that Hillary Clinton is looking to suspend her candidacy on Friday (Update: the event will now be held on Saturday) after a day of conversations with surrogates and Democratic figures who were supporting her. Other news agencies like Politico are now refining the news by describing the news as coming directly from the campaign and even reporting a venue from Clinton's speech: Washington, DC before a possible New York homecoming.

Obama's campaign was disappointed last night when Clinton did not endorse him in her prime-time speech, which would have set up a great moment for Obama to unify the party in his own address. Depending on how grandiose Clinton chooses her Friday event to be and the hour of the day at which she holds the event, her last speech as a candidate might repair some of yesterday's lost opportunity or seek to minimize the withdrawal. For now, the venue of Clinton's withdrawal informs us about the kind of message she wants to send, namely that she intends to concentrate on her work in Washington and build her Senate career -- unless, of course, she is picked for other duties (if not a vice-presidential spot then maybe the czar of Obama's health care initiative).

Speaking to AIPAC this morning, Clinton had delivered the first sign that she was dropping the defiant tone of last night's speech as she chose a more conciliating tone. Speaking to an audience that gave her a warm welcome and whose leaders are often described as skeptical of Obama's candidacy, Clinton vouched for the Illinois Senator's: "And let me be very clear. I know that Sen. Obama will be a good friend to Israel." In a way, Clinton's speech allowed her to remind Obama that she remains popular among a number of groups that he will need to appeal to in the general election and that she remains a powerful force in the campaign. The day's second sign that Clinton would not put up a fight came in the afternoon, as Marc Ambinder reports that Clinton bid farewell to her emotional staff in Arlington.

There had been similar clues circulating earlier this week, for instance in reports that Clinton staffers had been told to submit all receipts and that their last day of work would come mid-June. This also suggests that Clinton had pretty much decided to not stay in the race as of last night but still chose to not withdraw in her Election Night address. This could have two explanations. First, Clinton wanted to put pressure on Obama to accept some of her bargaining positions -- and she has other things she could want than the VP spot. Second, this allowed her to receive donations for one more night which is important to her as the campaign is in debt.

Clinton is likely to occupy the center stage for a few more days as last night's events coupled with the coming announcement will guarantee that many political obituaries, campaign retrospectives are written by all papers and magazine, and this also means three more days of non-stop speculation about Clinton's intentions and potential plans -- which is also what Clinton wants to stay relevant in the conversation. Starting Saturday night, however, the focus will be on the general election. The two campaigns are already in full war mode and are now going back-and-forth on the possibility of holding more debates.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign will dramatically expend in the coming days and weeks as it integrates some staff from the Clinton campaign and more generally opens up more offices, sets up more resources and starts recruiting volunteers to organize for the general election campaign. How long will we have to wait to see Obama start airing ad, as he is, after all, sitting on top of a giant warchest which he only has 3 more months to use (as the primary funds cannot be spent after the convention).

The morning after: Clinton's bargain, as Obama and McCain launch the general election

Last night, the two Democratic candidates lived in alternate dimensions. On the one hand, Barack Obama proclaimed himself the Democratic nominee after the networks showed him surpassing the magic threshold of 2,118 and delivered a celebratory speech in front of thousands of supporters as the media commemorated the first black nominee of a major US party. On the other, Hillary Clinton issued a defiant and combative message to her rival, avoiding any sort of concession and offering only some weakly-worded praise; she recapped her own claim to the nomination -- the popular vote and electability -- and said it was too early for her to decide anything.

Yesterday was meant to be Obama's night. Given how much of a favorite he had become since mid-February, it is easy to forget how giant an upset his victory his and how inevitable Clinton's nomination looked just 7 months ago or at least until the Philadelphia debate held at the end of October.

Last nigt, after months of false rumors about stacks of superdelegates just waiting to endorse, the Illinois Senator stunningly delivered on the promise of a superdelegate tsunami. About 40 delegates behind yesterday morning, he now stands at 2,156 by CNN's count, 38 more than the majority. Of these roughly 80 delegates Obama accumulated over the past day, only 15 came from Montana and South Dakota. Obama moved to put the nomination out of Clinton's reach, and even a more favorable allocation of Michigan's delegate would not solve Hillary's problem now, unless she insists on a full seating which her post-RBC reaction appeared to rule out.

Clinton first crashed the party by pulling an unexpected victory in South Dakota, the first legitimate upset since February. And in an ironic sense of event, it is the state in which she finally accomplished what she had been trying to do ever since March 4th (create a true surprise) that allowed Obama to win the delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. This latest development is telling of how much of a lead Obama had build by the end of February since three months of sustained Clinton victories -- some of them huge -- still leave her about 100 pledged delegates behind her rivals. This is, Obama supporters will say, a reminder of how futile Clinton's quest has been and how much time Democrats have wasted.

The sheer magnitude of the superdelegate tsunami led most observers to believe Clinton would pull out of the race in her speech, or at least concede that her odds are long. But she did no such thing and prevented the Democratic Party from launching its re-unification process heading into Obama's speech on a night in which TV networks were carrying speeches live in front of a large audience. Clinton's tone was more combative than expected, signaling that reports that she was on the verge of conceding were probably overstated -- one does not decide to be use this defiant a speech at the last minute. Clinton probably underestimates her party's expectation that she would offer some gesture last night and, whatever she does in the coming days, yesterday's speech might come back to haunt her if other Democratic figures are resentful of her last minute slap in the face.

Given the high odds Clinton faces, it is clear that she is looking to bargain something in exchange for her concession and for her support of Obama. But what is she asking for and, as importantly, what is Obama ready to give her? The vice-presidential nomination? It is too early to talk of that, and the Obama campaign does not want to tie its hands in the back -- though there are some scenarios in which they might eventually realize they need to tap their former rival. Simply to save face? Given how wounded reports indicate the Clintons are, this is a possible factor as well. Another possibility -- and one Obama might be more willing to grant -- is to give Clinton an important role in crafting and passing health care policy. Clinton emphasized that issue repeatedly last night, perhaps to pressure Obama to take up elements of his plan and perhaps to win an actual position. It is difficult to see how Clinton could seriously be envisioning any other route than dropping out over the next few days, however, as the political damage to her legacy and role in the Senate would be too great at this point were she at all serious about contesting Obama's nomination all the way to Denver.

While Hillary Clinton remained at the center of the political stage, John McCain and Barack Obama had moved on to their own contest. Both their speeches were combative and should be considered as the official launch of the general election. But the comparison was not favorable to McCain in ways that are puzzling: Why did his campaign not plan for this important night better? This was the first prime time speech McCain would deliver since March 4th and most probably the last until his acceptance speech in September; it was also his re-introduction to voters. Why, then, was McCain's speech so overwhelmingly negative and why was it almost exclusively focused on Obama? The Democrat's address, by contrast, had large portions designed to attack McCain but it also contained the usual more uplifting passages that celebrated his clinching the nomination and marked the path forward.

And why was the event organized in such a small venue in front of a relatively small crowd? Not to mention the problems with McCain's delivery, as he strangely snickered when repeating his campaign's new motto, "That's not change we can believe in." Compare McCain's enthusiasm and fire not just to Obama's speech but also to Clinton's. The New York Senator's addresses on election night paled in comparison to Obama's for much of the past few months, as is expected, but that was due to his speech-making strength -- not to her weakness. McCain will never win based on his oratory, and he knows that. But yesterday's speech had a number of strategic and purely organizational mistakes that is surprising from a campaign that had so much time to prepare.

Given this strange situation, it is easy to forget that McCain unveiled some important themes of his general election campaign that we will hear about in the coming weeks: He accused Obama of being in the pocket of special interests and of wanting to lead Iraq into chaos. And he pinpointed the area on which he will draw the sharpest contrasts with Obama: We are done with Clinton's experience, prepare to hear about judgment. McCain also presented himself as an independent voice, independent from both the Bush Administration and the Republican Party and its special interests. That message has two drawbacks, of course -- it puts the Arizona Senator on a defensive position and risks alienating conservative voters. But the combative and openly disdainful tone McCain used last night does point to one thing: He has been waiting for a long time for the general election to start and we should be ready for things to get heated fast.

Election Night guidelines: Obama will reach 2,118

As had been predicted for weeks, June 3rd marked the beginning of a superdelegate tsunami in favor of Barack Obama. I have lost count of the day's endorsements, but they haven't stopped since this morning and they have included prominent figures including former President Jimmy Carter, Rep. Clyburn, Debbie Dingell of Michigan (along with at least one other super from the state), Gov. Bresden of Tennessee (along with two other Tennessee Democrats), three supers from Delaware, Rep. Moore from Kansas, two supers from Massachusetts, Rep. Farr from California, a state official from Mississippi, a state Rep. from New Hampshire, and others. In addition, a couple of superdelegates who were supporting Clinton announced they were now endorsing Barack Obama, including DC's Ben Johnson, California's Kamil Hasan and, very importantly, Rep. Maxine Walters, one of Hillary's most important left-wing and African-American supporters.

All of these endorsements have put Obama a few delegates away from the magic mark of 2,118 and he is now sure of crossing that number in the next few hours just from the primaries of Montana and South Dakota, and even if he loses those states. The rapidity of the superdelegate flow in his favor leaves very few options to Hillary Clinton as it confirms that Obama will not only cross the threshold but he will do so by building a substantial margin, negating the only routes Clinton would have had going forward, as I explained this morning.

We will now wait to see tonight's results and whether Clinton can pull an upset and finish the race on a high note (though Obama is certainly favored in both of today's primaries). Surprisingly winning either could get Clinton some superdelegates, as 5 Montana superdelegates (including 2 Senators and the governor) and at least one South Dakota superdelegate (Sen. Johnson) will endorse their state's winner. We will also wait and see what Obama and Clinton will say in their speeches, whether he will confidently proclaim victory or try and leave her some space and whether she will bow out tonight and defiantly vow to survive a few more days. And McCain will also give a speech tonight, taking advantage of the last day of primary season to try and claim his share of the spotlight.

We will also be watching contested congressional primaries, including two crucial Senate contests: In New Mexico, Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson are engaged in a brutal battle to become the GOP's senatorial nominee, which means that one of these major Republican politician will see his or her career interrupted in the coming hours. In New Jersey, Frank Lautenberg is favored to win the Democratic primary against the challenge of Rep. Andrews who is contesting the leadership of a 91-years old Senator (note that there is slight hypocrisy in the Democrats' hitting McCain's age but officially supporting the candidacy of an incumbent 20 years McCain's senior).

In House races, meanwhile, the general election field will be set in some contests that have been confusing over the past few months as candidates have withdrawn, gotten back in, and as some contested primaries will be settled. This includes NM-01 and NM-02 (the first being the more obviously competitive), CA-04 (where GOP moderates and conservatives are waging a brutal war), AL-02 and AL-05 (both open seats held by the GOP and Democrats respectively), NJ-03 and NJ-07 (two open seats held by Republicans) and finally IA-03, where a progressive challenger is trying to unseat a more moderate Democratic incumbent.

It's the last voting day: What's next? (Updated: AP hints at concession tonight, CNN disagrees)

Welcome to the last presidential voting day until November 4th. The last presidential primary is upon us, and yet all eyes are fixed on New York, not on South Dakota and Montana. There have been no Zogby tracking polls, no wall-to-wall CNN coverage from Helena or Rapid City. Instead, every single one of Hillary Clinton's movements has been scrutinized for clues as to her plans: Will she drop out tonight? Will she give an uncommitted speech and drop out in the coming days once Obama reaches 2,118 delegates? Or is her campaign serious about its repeated threats to continue their quest all the way to the Denver convention?

There no longer is an obvious route for her campaign to take. For the past three months, Clinton had been avoiding the pressure to drop out by claiming she had to stay in until every voter was able to vote and she kept herself busy by campaigning full time, traveling to states that were holding primaries (even Puerto Rico last week-end).

After tonight, she can continue her quest for the nomination, but with what rationale? In a statement yesterday, Clinton laid out the case for her candidacy:

Tomorrow is the last day of the primaries and the beginning of a new phase in the campaign. After South Dakota and Montana vote I will lead in the popular vote and Senator Obama will lead in the delegate count. The voters will have voted and so the decision will fall to the delegates empowered to vote at the Democratic Convention. I will be spending the coming days making my case to those delegates.

Clinton is trying to put herself on par with Obama, as if both had won one of the counts, putting them on equal footing. But the popular vote argument is a difficult one for her to make as she would have been in a stronger position had she surpassed Obama with a count that includes all the caucus states. Instead, the best count in which Clinton is ahead is one that includes Michigan and grants the uncommitted to Obama but does not include estimates for four caucus states that have not released raw numbers. Note that these numbers could change again tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign will try to make it easier for Clinton to take her decision by ensuring that the third option no longer be on the table once Hillary, Bill and her team meet to discuss the end game. They do not want to appear to be pressuring her to drop out, but they are working overtime to ensure that enough superdelegates endorse them from this afternoon to tomorrow evening for the threshold to be crossed sometime soon. And there are many reports circulating that dozens of superdelegates -- particularly House members but perhaps even Senators, as Ken Salazar and Tom Harkin (both undeclared right now) are pressuring their colleagues -- will rally behind the Illinois Senator starting tonight.

In other words, Obama is likely to surpass 2,118 in the coming days -- and probably open up a substantial margin. The question then for Clinton is no longer to justify to superdelegates why they should endorse her (and thus have a reason to stay in the race) but justify why she is staying in the race after Obama has clinched a majority of delegates.

Her first rationale is Michigan, which does remain on the table, but that would only give Hillary so many delegates. And remember that her statement after the Rules & Bylaws meeting appeared to suggest that she would not push for a full seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations, concentrating instead only on the allocation of Michigan delegates. Second, her claim that superdelegates can change their mind offers her an argument that is technically true, though it is difficult to see why supers would cross back to the Clinton camp once Obama is declared the winner both by his own campaign and by the media.

She can still travel around the country, but what would she be campaigning for? Is she supposed to pretend like she's concentrating on the general election and hold events in the fall's battleground states? Should she try and put pressure on uncommitted delegates by traveling to their district?

Thus, Clinton will be in an even more difficult position than she has been these past few weeks once Obama substantially crosses 2,118, as that would remove the two arguments Clinton could have to stay in the race beyond that point, superdelegates changing their minds and the Michigan delegation. Perhaps the Clinton campaign can hope that two giant upsets tonight in SD and MT would give pause to the superdelegates, but those two states are not big enough to shift numbers much.

Of course, the Clinton campaign probably feels frustrated that it has done so well in so many states since the beginning of March without it having changed anything to the equation. But her challenge had become clear as soon as the dust settled on Obama's February streak. She needed to make something happen and she had no room for a single error. Her victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania were not big enough to satisfy the former condition, and her stumble in North Carolina was all Obama needed to wrap this up.

Update: Well, it looks like there is less suspense about Clinton's plans than expected, as the AP is reporting that Clinton will concede that Obama has enough delegates to win the nomination in her speech tonight (presumably under the condition that Obama lives up to his favorite status in SD and MT?). The WaPo reports that five Montana superdelegates, including the governor and the two senators, will endorse the winner of their state's primary as soon as it is called, confirming that we are likely to see a lot of endorsements starting tonight (Politico suggests as many as 28 look set to endorse by the time Obama speaks tonight) and Terry McAuliffe said today that, as soon as Obama gets a majority of delegates, "I think Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."

But CNN is reporting that the Clinton campaign is denying the AP report and says they have no plan to concede the delegate race tonight. It indeed seems likely that such plans would be set in stone before it becomes clear whether Obama will reach 2,118 today. In any case, all this talk confirms that Clinton is unlikely to try to hard once her rival reaches that number and clues of a Clinton concession tonight or at least in the coming days are accumulating.

The end game: Primary season ends tomorrow

For those who have moved on from the Democratic primary, it's easy to forget that tomorrow is the last primary day as South Dakota and Montana go to the polls. The Obama campaign is working overtime to convince superdelegates to rally around him in the coming days for the Illinois Senator to reach the magic number of 2,118 and claim the nomination.

Before we get there, however, we have to get through two more primaries and new polls today suggest that those might not be as much of formalities as we expected. Obama is heavily favored to win both South Dakota and Montana but two new ARG polls tell a different story:

• In Montana, a state with 16 delegates, Obama is barely ahead 48% to 44%. The two are tied among registered Democrats and Obama gets his advantage from independents.

• In South Dakota, a state with 15 delegates, ARG finds Clinton trouncing Obama 60% to 34%.

Whatever tomorrow's results, it is unlikely they will have a big impact on the nomination and even on what superdelegates think. The two states combined offer 31 delegates and the popular vote should not switch dramatically because of tomorrow's result as there should not be that many voters. However, even a single victory would allow Clinton to score a very rare upset. When is the last time a candidate benefited from a surprising victory? We have to go back to February, when few people were expecting that big a margin for Obama in Maine and Wisconsin and his victories in Delaware and Connecticut on February 5th were surprising. Overall, it is telling of how significant a lead Obama built in February that Clinton's 30%+ wins in WV, KY and Puerto Rico coupled with a suggestion of a coming upset could look so irrelevant to the nomination quest.

Should Clinton have a good night tomorrow, it could also impact her thinking process about whether she ought to withdraw from the race. Her campaign has sent conflicting signs in the past few days. First, Clinton has stated that she had not lost hope of convincing superdelegates that have already declared for Obama to change their mind as they are not pledged to any candidate even after they declared; Terry McAuliffe suggested that he was "hearing things." This is an essential argument if Clinton wants to justify her staying in the race past once Obama passes 2,118. Second, the campaign has kept the door open to contesting the legitimacy of the Michigan seating and the RBC's decision which they are suggesting they might take all the way to the convention.

On the other hand, there have been insistent suggestions that Clinton is looking to suspend her campaign this week, perhaps even endorsing Obama as early as this Friday. The Obama campaign is already in discussion with Clinton staffers about integrating them to his team, and Ben Smith suggests that Clinton's announcement could occur as early as tomorrow. Indeed, he notes that Clinton is organizing her election night party in New York City in a larger-than-expected facility to which she has invited her top donors, which could signal something a bit more significant than expected. Also, Marc Ambinder reports that Clinton staffers are being told to return their receipts by the end of this week, another sign that the campaign is preparing for the end.

If the superdelegate tsunami that will start once the primary season is over is as huge as Obama is hoping for, it would make it impossible for Hillary to remain in the race. There is only so many declared superdelegates she can hope to switch and a more satisfactory seating of the Michigan delegation would only net her so many additional votes. CNN reports that most of the 17 remaining uncommitted Senators will endorse Obama this week, after the end of voting, though Harry Reid should not do so. Note that Clinton won the support of two supers today (one from Louisiana and one from New York) while Obama was endorsed by four who count as three (as there are two from Michigan, apart from one from CT and one from VA).

In retrospect, the Democratic primaries have been very predictable, with most of the results since early February determined by demographic factors more than anything else. But Clinton's intentions have always been much harder to understand and even harder to predict, making it that much more difficult to foresee what will happen in the coming days. But there is no question that most people in the Democratic universe are now looking to put a close to the primary and they will do everything they can to bring an end to the Clinton-Obama storyline starting tomorrow night. If Florida and Michigan were holding re-votes tomorrow as once seemed very possible, June 3rd would be a much more climactic day and one in which Clinton would actually have a plausible path to save herself. But now even an unexpected Clinton triumph tomorrow should not change the race's closing dynamic.

Rules and Bylaws Committee: One more attempt to resolve FL and MI

On May 31st, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to address challenges to its treatment of Florida and Michigan's delegations and discuss possible resolutions. Such questions will soon be referred to the convention's credential committee, and it was widely expected that the DNC would simply refer any decision to that not-yet-operational committee. Instead, the RBC accepted to listen to Florida and Michigan's petitions. On Saturday morning, the RBC will listen both the state parties and those who brought the challenge forward (Senator Levin, who has long fought the primary calendar, will speak on Michigan's behalf); the two campaigns will also present their demands and their positions.

The two questions that need to be addressed are: First, should Florida and Michigan superdelegates be seated independently of what is decided about the pledged delegation? Second, what shall be done with the pledged delegates and how much weight should be given to the January 15th and January 29th votes?

The Clinton campaign has a lot riding on this meeting. Not only do they need to score a big net gain of delegates to keep the race close enough that they survive the first week of June but they want to legitimize their efforts to count Florida and Michigan in the popular vote. The campaign insists they are ahead in the popular vote counting the FL and MI results, and it will be more difficult for the Obama campaign to retort that totals from these two states should not be counted if they agree to allocate some delegates based on their results at the RBC.

Both candidates have their supporters on the committee which makes it virtually impossible that Clinton would get her full wish: That both delegations be fully seated, be given full voting rights and that they be allocated according to the January votes. The Obama campaign -- whose position right now is to split the delegations equally -- has signaled its willingness to meet "halfway," which could mean granting Hillary half of the pledged delegate leads she earned in January. Today, Clinton's options were reduced further and Obama's position was strengthened when the Democratic Party's lawyers issued a legal memo explaining the DNC could not fully seat the delegations and that it had to settle for reducing its voting rights by half -- which is roughly the punishment the RNC imposed on Florida and Michigan, though that did not prevent McCain from sealing his nomination in the Sunshine state.

Note that even if Clinton did get her full wish granted it would leave her far from her rival, and far from the nomination. That is why I wrote that Clinton is trying to keep it close enough to survive the first week of June rather than overtake Obama's lead. If she had gotten the DNC to recognize some delegations back in January or February, she would have kept closer contact with Obama and might not have spent the next 4 months on the defensive, having to justify why she is staying in and defend her turf. That obviously did not happen, and Clinton is now simply trying to prolong the game.

Obama is very close to 2,026 right now and they are looking to secure enough superdelegates in the days following June 3rd to surpass that number. Having hundreds of new delegates thrown in the game as well as more uncommitted superdelegates will raise the number needed to secure the nomination, giving Clinton hope of keeping the nomination fight alone past the endorsement wave that will likely follow June 3rd and strengthening her VP claims.

In the midst of this showdown between the Obama and Clinton machines, it is important to remember that the DNC has a very different set of concerns: How to balance the need to represent Michigan and Florida at the convention with the fact that they broke the rules? The Democratic world is worried that, if Florida and Michigan's delegations are recognized, there will be no way to keep any order in the primary calendar and no incentive for states to recognize the rules. Even an RNC-style half-punishment could no be enough, given how important FL and MI were in the GOP nomination fight.

Update: Florida Democrats were hoping to force the DNC to seat their delegates by going through the courts, but a Florida judge just tossed out the lawsuit saying that parties have the right to make their own rules.

Preparing for an election day that has little at stake, as Byrd goes Obama

The Democratic campaign is strangely subdued given that we are only one day from the Oregon and Kentucky primaries. The question, after all, is no longer what Hillary Clinton would need to accomplish to remain credible or even to change the fundamentals of the race, but only what she needs to get in order to make her argument that she ought to stay in the race two more weeks and that superdelegates should at least give her one last chance.

Besides the continuing picture of candidates going through the motions of a competitive race in what has ceased to be one, tomorrow night could also be surreal in that it will feature two dramatically different states that will feature two dramatically different results -- Clinton is heavily favored in Kentucky, in what should be a replay of her 41% victory in West Virginia, and Obama is favored in Oregon. This is confirmed by today's polls:

• Suffolk University finds Clinton leading 51% to 25% in Kentucky, an impressive showing that is inferior to what other polls have been showing. There are obviously a lot of undecideds. Obama's popularity stands at 43%, and only 41% of Democrats said they would vote for their party's nominee if their first choice did not get the nomination.
• In Oregon, Obama is narrowly ahead 45% to 41%. His popularity stands at 73%. Even here, Democrats have a loyalty problem as only 59% of Dems say they would stick with their party's nominee if their candidate does not get the nod.

Clinton looks to be in a position to pull an upset tomorrow in Oregon despite Obama's popularity in the state and the huge crowd he drew in Portland (about 70,000 but as we saw in New Hampshire unexpectdly gigantic crowds are not enough to carry one to victory); at least she is in a position to exceed expectations and keep a state that was supposed to be one of Obama's strongest in single digits. She is also likely to pair any good result with Oregon with a triumphant result in Kentucky. Yet, there is little at stake in such successes since Obama is getting ready to announce he has won a majority of pledged delegates tomorrow in a triumphant speech in Iowa, no matter the results in Oregon and Kentucky. As Plouffe said, "A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message -- the people have spoken." To which Clinton's Howard Wolfson responded that this was "a slap in the face to the millions of voters in the remaining primary states and to Senator Clinton’s 17 million supporters."

In fact, the attention of superdelegates appears to also have already turned to the general election, making it difficult for Clinton to reach her audience even with convincing victories. Today, Obama got a major endorsement: Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, whose support is announced a week after Obama was trounced in that state. Byrd is now the longest-serving Senator, and an ardent opponent of the Iraq War. He was a member of the KKK in his youth and an anti-civil rights Democrat in the 1960s, so this endorsement will be trumpeted by the Obama campaign as the symbol of the party's reunification (though Byrd has changed course over the past 40 years). This endorsement actually gets Obama at two superdelegates for the day, as he also got the support of the Chairman of the Washington State Party, Dwight Pelz.

This is not to say that tomorrow's results are not important. A strong night by Clinton would be given much more weight than West Virginia's results did last week, especially if she does well in Oregon. WV was expected to go heavily for her, and it was a small state. A strong showing in two bigger states in which she is not supposed to do as well could embarass Obama and push him once again on the defensive.

However much Obama is basically assured of getting the nomination and however much his campaign pretends to be indifferent to tomorrow's results, that does not mean that they do not care about posting convincing results.

Despite West Virginia, this past week helped Obama turn away from primary fight

The number of uncommitted superdelegates decreased significantly over the week-end, getting Democrats 8 steps closer to settling their primary. Barack Obama picked up 5 superdelegates while Hillary Clinton picked up a net 3 -- and to make matters worse for the New York Senator she lost some pledged delegates:

• Clinton's endorsements of the day are: 3 California add-ons (Caroyln Doggett, Dario Frommer and Dora Rubio).

• Obama's endorsements of the week-end are: 2 California add-ons (Lou Paulson and William Quay Hays), 1 Kansas add-on (Lt. Gov. Parksinson), 1 Colorado add-on (former Denver Mayor Federico Pena) and Maryland DNC member Greg Pecoraro.

• Also, Nevada Democrats selected their add-on superdelegate today by electing a union leader who pledged that he had not made up his mind between Clinton and Obama.

• In pledged delegate news, Nevada's state convention was held yesterday and uneven turnout among Clinton and Obama's state delegates made Hillary lose a delegate, so the count now stands at 14-11 instead of 13-12 (remember, this is a state that Clinton won); in DC, a Clinton pledged delegate, Jack Evans, announced he would vote for Obama.

Jack Evans was the manager of Clinton's campaign in DC, so it is hard to fault her campaign for thinking he would be a reliable choice as a pledged delegate... His decision to rally around the Illinois Senator by pointing to his "momentum" is a clear signal that many in the Demoratic Party -- including figures who have the power to bring the race to an end, a group that includes people like Jack Evans -- are no longer willing to entertain a lengthy primary and are looking to put an end to it as soon as possible.

Odds are that there will be not be that much more significant movement until the end of June -- if the remaining undecided supers have not moved until now, why would they do so before the last voters cast their ballot? -- but things could go very fast then. The Obama campaign is already looking to claim victory in Tuesday's primaries, as they are more than likely to clinch a majority of pledged delegate at the end of the night. According to my calculations and without counting any of the Edwards pledged delegates that have rallied Obama, he needs 24 of 103 delegates that will be awarded on Tuesday... Of course, we have known for months that Obama will win the pledged delegate count. But times are getting increasingly difficult for Hillary.

The week that just finished was particularly rough, as most observers and Democrats were clearly turning away from the primary and towards the general election. The day after Clinton's West Virginia triumph, NARAL and John Edwards endorsed Obama, both making sure to frame their endorsement in the perspective of the general election. Edwards praised Clinton at length and NARAL's main target was clearly John McCain. The superdelegate flow towards Obama confirmed that the primary period is closing, with many endorsements accompanied with pronouncements that Clinton can no longer win and that the endorsees' motivation is to heal the party's wounds.

Also this week, the political world's attention unmistakably turned to the general election because of the controversy surrounding George Bush's "appeasement" speech at the Knesset. The McCain and Obama campaigns got in a heated back-and-forth on the issue, as most Democrats rallied to Barack's defense and most Republicans hurried to support the president, in what amounted to the first partisan salvoes of the general election.

More generally, McCain is now trying to reclaim some attention. He was content to be forgotten from February to now, as he was rebuilding his campaign and organizing his outreach to conservatives, two activities that don't necessarily demand the attention of the mainstream media. But now that McCain wants to work himself back in the country's attention span, the general election is coming to dominate conversations... and Hillary Clinton's hopes to take this to the convention are diminishing daily.

Of course, none of this is that important; we have known for a long time, after all, that Obama is the likely Democratic nominee. But we have also known that how he ends up clinching the nod and when he manages to put Clinton away will have a major influence on how he fares in November, so these consideration are significant.

This is why Obama's strong showing in North Carolina and Indiana was significant. It was not enough to force Clinton to drop out and for Obama to fully turn to the general election, but it was enough for him to turn away from primary campaigning and concentrate on his exchanges with John McCain and on swing states that will matter in the general. Obama received the Edwards endorsement in Michigan, not Oregon or Kentucky (though Edwards could help among Kentucky's blue collar voters). And on Election Night this Tuesday, Obama will not be in Oregon; nor will he be in Puerto Rico. He will be Iowa, with the hope that a triumphant rally in the site of his first victory and of a key fall battleground will be enough to turn the page of his battle with Clinton. One that will have been longer, more challenging and probably more entertaining than his coming showdown with McCain.

(John) Edwards endorses Obama, calls for party unity

So much for thinking I could afford to take a small break today. After waiting nearly five months, John Edwards finally announced his support for Barack Obama today in a giant rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Just like NARAL earlier today, Edwards emphasized the need for party unity and insisted that the Democratic race was over. "The reason I am here tonight is that Democratic voters in America have made their choice and so have I," he said. In other words, this endorsement is a post-primary show of support, a firm way of telling Clinton that her time has come.

When Edwards unexpectedly dropped out on January 30th, a quick endorsement appeared certain. Edwards had campaigned primarily as the anti-Clinton throughout the fall and reserved his harshest criticism for the New York Senator, famously allying himself with his fellow 'candidate of change' Obama at the New Hampshire debate on January 5th. But not only did nothing happen, but reports started implying that a Clinton endorsement should not be ruled out. The main point of discord was health care: It became difficult for Edwards to rally Obama when the debate over mandates -- in which Clinton was defending Edwards's side -- was the main defining issue of the primary.

Edwards's endorsement comes months to late to affect the primary process. It could have helped Obama get a clearer edge on Super Tuesday, boosted him among blue-collar voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yet, Edwards's move fits the new narrative of the race -- that of a Democratic Party coalescing around its presumptive nominee with increasingly less oxygen for the Clinton campaign to rely on to continue its effort. With the remaining superdelegates looking for signs the game is over, the cover provided by the endorsements of high-profile party leaders could push them to hurry their choices. It is true that the same was said when Obama got the endorsement of Richardson but the pace of superdelegate endorsements has actually significantly increased since Friday -- it is no longer just speculation.

The one tangible consequence of Edwards's endorsement is the question of the delegates -- and even this will only matter if the Democratic race somehow stays muddied all the way to the end of August. Edwards has 18 pledged delegates that he acquired in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Edwards will certainly urge these delegates to cast their ballots for Obama but they are not pledged to follow their candidate's instructions. While it is likely that most of them would follow Edwards's lead, these 18 pledged delegates are now essentially superdelegates and their endorsements will have to be tracked.

Very noticeable today was the absence of Elizabeth Edwards. The former candidate's wife, who is acquiring an increasingly high profile particularly on the issue of health care, was even more critical than her husband was throughout the fall, even provoking a series of controversies over whether she should tone down her attacks. Yet, reports have increasingly suggested that she has been leaning towards the New York Senator in the past few months; the issue of health care appears to have turned her away against Obama, and she has publicly said that she holds Clinton's plan to be the superior one (hardly a surprise considering how similar Edwards's plan was to Clinton's).

Asked whether Elizabeth would make an announcement herself, John explicitly said he was only speaking in his own name today. This does not diminish the value of today's endorsement -- after all, he is the former Senator and the former candidate, and he is the one who will now be put on the list of potential Obama VP or Attorney General picks -- but Elizabeth's absence confirmed what until now was only a rumor: the Edwards couple's allegiance is split and so is the Democratic base's. While a major step towards the party's fully rallying around Obama, John's endorsement also highlights that Democrats are still far from presenting a unitary front.

Slow day in polls and superdelegate news

Sunday is a slow news day. After 17 superdelegate endorsement in the space of 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, only 1 announced her support today: Young Democrat Crystal Strait announced she was endorsing Barack Obama explaining that, "Barack Obama has shown a real commitment to young voters in his campaign and in response young people have overwhelmingly voted and caucused for Obama in these primary contests."

However expected, this endorsement gets Obama one vote closer to the nomination as the pool of uncommitted superdelegates continues to decrease. Note also that 46 superdelegates (about a sixth of the total of "uncomnitted superdelegates) have yet to be chosen because they are add-ons states in which the state party has not yet finalized selections. Most of the add-ons (though by no means all) that are designated tend to already be supporters of a candidate, so the pool of superdelegates that Obama and Clinton are hoping to convince is even smaller than it looks; this is obviously bad news for Hillary.

Meanwhile, three new general election polls have been released this week-end. First, the LA Times-Bloomberg national poll:

• Both Democrats lead McCain. Clinton leads 47% to 38%, while Obama is ahead 46% to 40%.

• Clinton performs much better among voters with an income of less than $40K: She leads 50% to 29% while Obama is only ahead 43% to 45%. Among the highest-income group, however, Obama is slightly stronger than Clinton: She trails by 6, he trails by 1.

• The two Democrats also differ based on gender (Clinton leads by 21% among women, trails by 12% among men, Obama leads by 13% and trails b 3%), partisan affiliation (Obama is 9% weaker among registered Democrats but 10% stronger among independents). Contrary to what we might think, it looks like Obama's weakness among Dems comes from people who identify themselves as liberal (he is 13% weaker in that group), so not necessarily the white blue-collar base.

With the Democratic primary drawing to a close, polls testing both Clinton and Obama will become more rare so this might be one of our last opportunities to reiterate how different Clinton and Obama's general-election coalitions are and how remarkable it is that the two Democrats are arriving at roughly the same final numbers poll after poll considering the different paths they take to get there. Obama's relative weakness among women, registered Democrats and lower-income voters is compensated by his relative strength among men, independents and higher-income voters.

What this confirms is how different their two electoral maps would have looked and how the electability difference rests on a state-by-state basis rather than a national analysis. Rasmussen's new general election poll from Oregon, for example, confirms that Obama is much stronger in the Northwest (Oregon and Washington):

• Obama has opened a double-digit lead, 51% to 39%. Clinton has strengthened her position and leads 46% to 40%. Last month, McCain led Clinton by 6% and Obama led McCain by the same margin. Obama has always looked strong in Oregon.

• Rasmussen also polled Michigan, however, and finds troubling news for Democrats as McCain continues to be surprisingly strong. He edges out Obama by 1 percent, 45% to 44%, and is tied with Clinton at 44%.
  

Conventional wisdom would hold that Oregon is a tighter state than Michigan in the general election, but Obama's appeal to Western independents could help him put the Northwest away, concentrating on a state like Colorado; but he certainly cannot afford to lose a state with as many electoral votes as Michigan and the GOP is certainly preparing to make the argument that Obama was nominated on the back of Michigan voters if the DNC does not resolve the rogue primary mess in the weeks ahead.

Pledged delegate breakdown and superdelegate flow: Obama's math

Hillary Clinton is continuing her campaign despite the setbacks of May 6th and continuing to make her case to superdelegates. However decided the Democratic race now looks and however much Obama has now turned to the general election, this means that it remains important to keep a tab on the the pledged delegate breakdown and on superdelegate endorsements. After all, math will be the main factor that will force an end to this race sooner or later.

The first change to today's totals concerns a state that voted on February 5th: Colorado's totals have been modified from a 35-20 breakdown in favor of Obama to 36-19 -- a reminder of how much the caucus states contributed to Clinton's collapse. Consider that just in the 6 caucuses held on February 5th Obama amassed a lead of 80 delegates (almost half of his current lead) a clear indication of how huge a tactical mistake Clinton's campaign committed. The two other updates to the pledged delegate count concern the two states that voted last Tuesday -- Indiana and North Carolina.

North Carolina primary: Obama 56%-Clinton 42%

• Obama: 66 delegates
  
• Clinton: 49
  

Indiana primary: Clinton 51%-Obama 49%

• Clinton: 38 delegates
  
• Obama: 34
  

This brings us to the following total:

• Obama: 1591.5 delegates
  
• Clinton: 1425.5
• Remaining: 217
  

That's a differential of 166 which means that Clinton has to win 88% of the remaining pledged delegates to take the lead. Obama just has to get to the viability threshold of 15% in the remaining districts to hold on to his pledged delegate lead... That pretty much explains why even the Clinton campaign never mentions the possibility of taking the lead in pledged delegate anymore though they did venture today that they expected to be with 100 pledged delegates of Obama by June 3rd. For that to happen, Clinton would need to win 65% of remaining delegates -- 142 to his 75. This does not take into account Florida and Michigan despite many signs pointing to the possibility of some kind of resolution that would allow Clinton to pick up more delegates than Obama in those states; this would make the path to that 100 delegate deficit more plausible.

Meanwhile, the superdelegate flow continues as Obama solidifies his newly acquired lead among superdelegates. Obama got 6 new endorsements today (adding to yesterday's 8) while Clinton picked up 2 and lost 1:

• Endorsing Obama were Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell, Virginia's Joe Johnson, Ohio add-on Dave Regan, Utah add-on Kristi Cumming and two Virgin Islands supers, Kevin Rodriguez and Carol Burke. Rodriguez had previously endorsed Clinton, so he represents a net gain of 2 for Obama.
• Endorsing Clinton were Massachusetts add-on Arthur Powell and Texas Rep. Ciro Rodriguez.
  

This means that 17 superdelegates have committed to a candidate in the space of 2 days, a dramatic quickening of the endorsement pace that bodes well for Obama's hopes of wrapping this up sooner rather than later. There are about 250 superdelegates who remain uncommitted and Clinton should be winning those about 4:1 to have a path to the nomination. That today's ratio is 6:1 in favor of Obama confirms that the Illinois Senator is rapidly approaching 2,024.

A new graphic on the New York Times' website tells the story of Obama's dramatic comeback among superdelegates since March 4th, as even Clinton's Ohio and Pennsylvania survivals did not allow her to reverse Obama's momentum among supers (Note: The graph looks particularly dramatic because the origin point is 199 delegates for Obama, not 0):

Superdelegates flow towards Obama, give him his first lead

Whatever path might remain for a Clinton nomination gets that much narrower with every superdelegate that endorses Obama -- and the Illinois Senator got the support of 8 of them today alone, making this one of his most successful days super-wise and allowing him to grab the lead among superdelegates for the first time. This is obviously an important development

Clinton's rationale has long been that there is no reason for her to drop out as long as superdelegates are reluctant to endorse Obama; every few weeks there is heavy speculation that Obama is about to get a wave of new support but those rumors have never materialized. Since his Indiana and North Carolina, however, there has been an unmistakable pick-up in the pace of endorsements; today, there was a flow:

• Among the day's most important endorsements was that of Rep. Donald Payne of New Jersey who switched his support from Clinton to Obama. The reason this is significant is that Payne is the African-American superdelegate to switch his support since John Lewis did a few months ago. We wondered whether Lewis' move would lead to an erosion of Clinton's support among black superdelegates but that never materialized. Payne insisted on the need for party unity.

• In particular, all eyes are on Rep. Clyburn, one of the highest ranking House Democrats who is still officially undeclared but who has been very critical of Clinton for a while; his praise of Obama today only confirms that the Illinois Senator can count on Clyburn's endorsement, sooner or later.
  

• Obama got two other congressional endorsements today: Rep. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon.

• One representative rallied behind Clinton, Rep. Chris Carney of Pennsylvania; Carney represents a very tough district for Democrats.

• Obama's other endorsements are: South Carolina state party vice chair Wilber Lee Jeffcoat, Maryland DNC member John Gage, California DNC member Ed Espinoza (who became famous for anonymously running the site Mr. Super), an other California DNC member Vernon Watkins (who declared "The election is over, everybody knows that. Obama has won.") and New Mexico add-on Laurie Weahkee, who was selected under somewhat controversial conditions a few weeks ago when she insisted she was undecided but Clinton supporters within the state party protested that she had privately committed to Obama.

With Obama now in front in the superdelegate count, it the support of the establishment that switches from one candidate to the other; this, of course, is only a symbolic shift but it has enormous significance. Clinton needs superdelegate to reverse the vote of pledged delegates and for that to happen she needs to close with a lead of at least 150 superdelegates. But she has firmly behind and there is no sign that she in a position to get her lead back; after all, many of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are not likely to be truly undecided (Nancy Pelosi, Clyburn, Donna Brazile).

The flow of superdelegates towards Obama strikes two terrible blows to Hillary Clinton. First it undermines her rationale to stay in the race at a time the media is increasingly unwilling to entertain the notion of a suspenseful race (see the Washington Post's Dan Balz). Second it removes the last metric in which she was still ahead. It also means that many superdelegates are no longer willing to be patient and are looking to put an end to the race even more quickly than Howard Dean and Senator were asking them to.

Today's ray of hope for Hillary Clinton pales in comparison to this deluge of bad news. RCP does calculations and concludes that Clinton could still regain the lead among the popular vote under certain models of calculations. This is something she was counting on to give superdelegates who wanted to endorse her some cover but even this scenario had seemed unlikely after Obama's large victory in North Carolina and many had concluded that the popular vote contest -- like the pledged delegate race -- was over. Yet, RCP notes that if turnout in Kentucky and West Virginia is high and Clinton gets 40%+ blowouts as polls are predicting, it could put her in a position to claim at least this metric with a large victory in Puerto Rico. This might seem unimportant, but Clinton truly needs something to justify her continuing candidacy if she is serious about staying in the race until June 3rd (and even beyond).

Candidates meet with supers, Clinton nixes Michigan plan

As the Democratic Party seeks to find a way out of its nomination imbroglio, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama met with uncommitted superdelegates over the past two days. Yesterday, Clinton held meetings at the DCCC headquarters; today, it was Obama's turn. Campaigns surrogates are insisting that there are scores of superdelegates who are "undeclared" but privately committed to Obama though those endorsements have been very slow to materialize. Today, however, Obama got two congressional endorsements: Rep. Brad Miller of North Carolina and Rep. Rick Larsen of Washington. (Speaking of, Politio's chart of all supers by state and by function is the best page I have yet seen to track superdelegates.)

Pressure might be mounting on the Clinton campaign but they are showing no sign of being hurried. The Michigan Democratic Party recently proposed a plan to divide its state's pledged delegate 69-59 and speculation was that Clinton would accept it now that she was in a less powerful position. But her campaign nixed the Michigan proposal this afternoon and insisted that they would accept no plan that did not award her the number of delegates she would be entitled under the January 15th vote (73). The campaign spokesperson said: "This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary. Those votes must be counted."

Contrary to talk that the Florida Democratic Party was ready to follow the lead of its Michigan counterpart and find its solution to the delegate mess, a party spokesperson is now saying that there is no deal being prepared in FL.

I take Clinton's quick counter to the Michigan plan to be the first sign since Tuesday that she is serious about staying in the race until primaries are over in June. The quest to seat the FL and MI delegates and give a "voice" to those two states has become a central rationale of her candidacy. Accepting a deal like Michigan's (which would probably be followed by a similar one out of Florida) would remove that rationale without getting Clinton that much closer to Obama. Clinton today wrote a letter to her rival in which she asks him to help her campaign find a solution to the FL and MI mess. She (correctly) blames his campaign for nixing plans of holding revotes in both states and phrases the issue in terms the party's general election chances:

One of the foremost principles of our party is that citizens be allowed to vote and that those votes be counted. That principle is not currently being applied to the nearly 2.5 million people who voted in primaries in Florida and Michigan. Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee will be hamstrung in the general election if a fair and quick resolution is not reached that ensures that the voices of these voters are heard. Our commitment now to this goal could be the difference between winning and losing in November.

Note that Obama can afford to accept Clinton's conditions in both FL and MI without undermining his hold on the nomination; if anything, it would make Clinton's path more difficult as she would no longer be able to portray herself as the sole defender of the rogue states' voices.

Update: The Clinton campaign is now also claiming to have superdelegates who have privately committed, as this Politico story reports. This confirms how little credence should be given to these private commitments -- including those of the Obama campaign. However, this article is the most realistic take on the race that Clinton staffers are accepting to take as they are professing that they are attempting to gauge who among the uncommitted supers is looking to move towards Hillary to judge whether she remains viable.

Increasing speculation about Clinton's intentions

On Wednesday morning, as the political world was abuzz with speculation that she was about to drop out of the race, Hillary Clinton got up, traveled to West Virginia and launched into her stump speech, pledging to stay in "until there's a nominee."

24 hours later, Clinton is showing no signs of slowing down despite suggestions that she is only trying to stall for time before deciding what to do, just as Mitt Romney did after Super Tuesday. Thus, speculation has only increased over the past day. Is Clinton pulling a Romney, or is she putting herself in the position Mike Huckabee was in between February 5th and March 4th, or does she actually believe she still has a chance at the nomination?

The Huckabee option is the most plausible. Clinton is professing her commitment to getting every state a chance to vote and she sees no reason to drop out before June 3rd, especially since West Virginia and Kentucky will be such good results for her. As I suggested yesterday, it might actually be good for Obama to have her in the race until May 20th to avoid losing those states to someone who is no longer running. Now, some in the Clinton campaign are circulating the date of June 15th as the end of primary season. It is indeed likely that as soon as all states vote a significant number of superdelegates would feel forced to pick sides, leading to Obama reaching the majority of delegates. (Update: Terry McAuliffe, Clintonite extraordinaire, is saying that the race will be over by early June and will not go to the convention floor.)

But for now, superdelegates are not moving. Obama picked up four yesterday, including one who switched from Clinton to Obama, but Clinton also obtained two new superdelegate votes (so a net gain of one). Obviously, Clinton is the one who needs a 4:1 split so such news is great for Obama, but the Clinton campaign must be amazed that such a high number of superdelegates are still refusing to declare themselves when they could force an end to the race by rallying Obama's side. More specifically, the stability of Clinton's endorsements is nothing short of remarkable as constant speculation of wavering Clinton superdelegates -- in particular African-Americans -- very rarely leads to any actual switches. Ben Smith reports that Barack Obama's visit to the House floor this morning is leading to more talks of wavering superdelegates as Clinton superdelegates hugged the Senator and asked him for an autograph. But as long as superdelegates are not moving the Clinton campaign feels that there is no reason for them to call it quits either.

The second major factor is Michigan and Florida. Clinton has proclaimed herself the defender of these states' voting rights and it is likely that she will refuse to quit the race until an arrangement is found concerning both. This could also be to Obama's advantage. The Illinois Senator does not want to open himself up to fall attacks by Republicans that he was nominated on the back of those two crucial swing states; he might not need to win Florida (though it would hurt Democrats if McCain doesn't even have to defend the state, moving resources elsewhere) but Michigan is definitely a must. If the delegations are seated after Clinton drops out, that would not give a voice to Michigan and Florida at all. [By the way, think how different our conversations would be today if Michigan and Florida were revoting on June 3rd as it once seemed likely.]

Given how far in front of Clinton Obama now is in terms of superdelegates, he is now in a position to accept an arrangement in Florida and Michigan (provided the DNC is on board, of course). Thus, the Michigan Democratic Party is proposing yet another plan to split delegates: Seat the full delegation, allocate 69 delegates to Clinton and 59 for Obama. This margin is midway between a tie and the allocation based on the January 15th vote (a night that also saw the survival of Mitt Romney, as some of you might remember), pretending that Obama is "uncommitted." (Though some uncommitted voters might have been Edwards or Biden who could have moved to Clinton, this is clearly the only way of dealing with "uncommitted.")

This plan had already circulated a few weeks ago but had gotten nowhere. Now that the Clinton campaign is ready to accept less and that Obama can afford accepting more, perhaps the plan will be adopted, resolving the Michigan mess. Note that, while I have not seen this specified anywhere, such a plan would surely restore the right to vote of Michigan superdelegates, raising the bar of a convention majority a bit higher and increasing the pool of superdelegates -- two things that could prolong Clinton's staying in the race further if she is looking to stay in until Obama reaches a majority.

Delegate breakdown, as Obama is ahead in Guam by 7 votes (Update: There will be a recount!)

Hillary Clinton is catching no breaks in the Democratic primaries. She was publicly rooting for Eight Belles, the race's only female horse, in today's Kentucky Derby. But Eight Belles finished second, shockingly died and is now the lead on the Drudge Report...

More seriously, Clinton supporters have to be frustrated at their candidate's loss in the Guam caucuses. After trailing by 6% to 8% through the night, Clinton needed to win the last district -- which was also the most populous -- by a large margin. She ended up getting 62%... leaving her 7 votes short of Obama's total. Granted, this is out of a total of 5,000. This is naturally far from a meaningful defeat for Clinton, and the two candidates are splitting the four pledged delegates.

Guam voters also elected a ticket of superdelegates of which one is supporting Obama and the other having pledged to support the caucus winner (so these 7 votes did give Obama a boost in delegates). Thus, Obama gains two superdelegates out of Guam -- not to mention that this vote is getting more headlines than I expected (almost more headlines than Romney got out of Wyoming win on 01/05), with most of them proclaiming that "Obama wins the Guam caucuses." By no means a momentum changer, but there have been an accumulation of unlucky breaks like this that have put Clinton on the defensive.

[Update: Kuam TV stresses that those results are unofficial and subject to modification. In particular, there seem to be a high number of spoiled ballots in the Dededo district, the one Clinton got 61% in. It is thus possible that the lead changes -- and with it the endorsement of the newly elected Chairman of the Party.
Update #2: There will indeed be a recount in Guam, and special attention will be paid to the high number of spoiled ballots. Until then, the state party will not certify the results.]

In a positive development, however, the Clinton campaign improved its delegate margin in Pennsylvania after the breakdown by district was fully calculated. In my latest delegate breakdown, I allocated 83 delegates for Clinton, 73 for Obama and left two outstanding; some networks had estimated that these two delegates would be split equally. Now, the final breakdown appears to be 85-73 for Clinton.

This brings the pledged delegate total to:

• Obama: 1490.5 delegates
• Clinton: 1339.5
• Differential: 151

Also today, however, Obama netted a boost in superdelegate endorsements beyond the two from Guam. Since yesterday evening, he has now picked up 5 superdelegates to Clinton's 2.

• He got the support of the New Mexico party chair, Brian Colon (note that Clinton supporters were already complaining at NM's add-on selection, complaining that the party had selected a candidate leaning towards Obama despite Clinton's victory in on Super Tuesday).
• In Maryland, the add-on selection process was completed today and attributed one superdelegate each to Clinton [Kathleen Kennedy Townsend] and Obama [former Gov. Parris Glendening]; in South Carolina, Obama supporter Inez Tenenbaum won an add-on slot as well.
• Yesterday night, Clinton obtained the endorsement of Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr, a DNC member from Texas.

• Louisiana picked New Orleans Mayor Nagin as an add-on; Nagin has yet to commit to a candidate.
  

Clinton's path to the nomination is getting increasingly difficult as the number of uncommitted superdelegates is decreasing. As we have noted numerous times, Clinton already needs to convince a large majority of the remaining superdelegates to back her and that proportion naturally increases the more Obama nets gains among supers.

As Clinton plays up gas tax issue, superdelegates show discontent

Hillary Clinton better have evidence that the gas tax issue is a political winner among May 6th voters because her increasingly harsh rhetoric on the issue is creating trouble for her among the audience she needs even more than Indiana and North Carolina voters -- superdelegates.

Clinton first expressed her interest in repealing the gas tax for the summer when McCain put the idea forward, but she has now become a full-fledged advocate of the measure. And in a sure sign that she feels that the gas tax holiday is a political jewel, she is now expanding the debate beyond her battle against Obama. Her campaign announced today that she is planning on introducing legislation to implement a gas tax holiday. Clinton used very strong language to describe her rationale:

I believe it is important to get every member of Congress on the record. Do they stand with hard pressed Americans who are trying to pay their gas bills at the gas station or do they once again stand with the big oil companies. That's a vote I'm going to try to get, because I want to know where they stand and I want them to tell us - are they with us or against us?

What is particularly amusing to me is that this is practically the message Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi have been relaying... about superdelegates needing to choose between Obama and Clinton. Take out the second sentence specifying that Clinton is talking about the gas tax and she might as well be asking congressmen to announce for whom they will be voting at the convention. More seriously, that last sentence has predictably provoking something of a stir, as some are accusing Clinton of using Bush-ist terminology.

If the legislation arrived on the floor of the Senate or of the House, it would put many Democratic congressmen in a difficult situation. Most -- starting with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama -- are opposed to this idea; but, as Clinton's insistence on pursuing it confirms, it is politically-speaking tough for vulnerable Democrats to vote against the gas tax holiday without opening themselves up to harsh attacks in their re-election races.

Clinton is thus risking alienating some uncommitted superdelegates by pushing her argument, airing new ads and introducing legislation. Colorado Representative, Senate candidate and undecided superdelegate Mark Udall blasted Clinton this afternoon in a strongly-worded press release that echoes many of the themes put forward by the Obama campaign (a clear indication that Clinton might be losing Udall's vote):

Senator Clinton claimed yesterday that I either stand with her on this proposal or stand with the oil companies. To that I say: I stand with the families of Colorado, who aren’t looking for bumper sticker fixes that don’t fix anything, but for meaningful change that brings real relief and a new direction for our energy policy. We can’t afford more Washington-style pandering while families keep getting squeezed.

It is exactly the kind of short-sighted Washington game that keeps us from getting real results to our energy problem. Experts across the ideological spectrum agree that it will increase the deficit, drain money away from Colorado roads and bridges, and hurt the environment, all without actually making prices lower for drivers.

To recap, Clinton is thus pursuing an argument that is (1) denounced with rare unanimity by the media, (2) upper-middle-class voters even further away from her, (3) at odds with the position of most Democratic leaders and (4) has the potential to alienate uncommitted superdelegates -- the very audience Clinton needs to stay put if she wants to prevent Obama from clinching the nomination.

Yet, knowing all of this, the Clinton campaign is continuing to pounce the issue; tonight, she started running running her second ad in Indiana attacking Obama for opposing the tax holiday (you can watch it here). It accuses Obama of dismissing the savings as "pennies" (with the implication that Obama cannot understand the plight of the working-class, a charge that ties back to the elitism theme) and heralds Clinton's plan to make Big Oil pay for the rising prices.

The Clinton campaign is evidently concentrating on blue-collar and middle-class voters, the groups that Obama is the weakest among. Clinton knows that her only path to the nomination is to instill doubt that Obama has the capacity to win the general election, and she will not be able to do so without increasing her lead among these groups in North Carolina and Indiana. She handily defeated Obama among white blue-collar voters in Pennsylvania -- but the margin was the same as it was in Ohio. That is good enough to win Clinton the primary, but not enough to convince superdelegates that Obama is too damaged by incidents like Wright and bittergate to beat McCain.

By the end of February, in Wisconsin and the Potomac region, Clinton's advantage among these groups of voters had eroded; but she recaptured her clear edge in the run-up to March 4th when Obama was damaged by the controversy surrounding NAFTA. Two months later, Clinton hopes another economic issue powers her through May 6th. Only then will she worry about superdelegates -- if it is not too late.

In troubling news for Clinton, pace of superdelegate endorsements accelerating

The number of uncommitted superdelegates is rapidly declining. After 5 endorsements on Monday and 5 on Tuesday, the number dropped by 9 more today -- with a 10th superdelegate vote switching sides. At the end of the day, this is a net increase of 4 for Clinton, while Obama bests her with a net increase of 5. With every superdelegate that Obama pick-ups, Clinton's road gets tougher and the proportion of uncommitted superdelegates she needs to win increases.

Thus, these past 3 days have been as tough as any for the Clinton campaign -- and this despite Obama's rough patch and his at times dramatically declining poll numbers. Even the best results on May 6th will not help her if she cannot convince superdelegates to remain patient.

First, the Illinois and New York Democratic parties add-ons were revealed today. Both states are choosing figures who are unanimously supporting their Senators. Thus, NY's 4 add-ons (including state Attorney General Cuomo and state Comptroller DiNapoli) are Clinton endorsees, while IL's 3 add-ons (including Mayor Daley) are Obama supporters. The fact that some of the undecided superdelegate spots have not yet been allocated is one more obstacle that Clinton will have to overcome; indeed, there is very little Clinton can do to pick-up the share of add-ons she needs. Many of the slots will be filled by party committees in states that Obama won handily (Maryland, for instance, will choose its add-ons on Sunday) and these committees will be hard pressed to allocate these slots to Obama supporters.

Three non-add-on superdelegates also made news today:

• After the president of Pennsylvania's AFL-CIO yesterday, John Olsen, the president of the Connecticut's AFL-CIO endorsed Clinton today.

• But an AFL-CIO official in Texas, John Patrick, expressed his support for Obama.

• Finally, the most high-profile endorsement came from Joe Andrew, the former chairman of the DNC from 1999 to 2001. A Clinton loyalist, Andrew was a Hillary supporter but he announced today that he was switching his support to Obama.
  

Andrew provided two reasons for his decision, and they are both likely to be touted by the Obama campaign in the coming days. He blasted the Clintons' "old politics" of which he said he has long been part. Responding to the Clinton campaign before it had even reacted, Andrew explained, "I will be branded as disloyal, power-hungry, but most importantly, they will use the exact words that Republicans used to attack me when I was defending President Clinton." Second, Andrew asserted that he was convinced the prolonged primary was hurting Democrats and that the party had to unite ASAP to prevent a McCain victory. This is of course a crucial argument the Obama campaign is voicing to superdelegates, while Clinton has been more successful in persuading them that no irremediable harm would be done.

As a former DNC chairman, Andrew is an insider with a lot of connections -- and that could lead other superdelegates to take notice of his choice and the arguments he is using and to come out with their own endorsements. To halt the superdelegate movement before it is too late, Clinton needs to deal a truly powerful blow to the Obama campaign on Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina -- her Pennsylvania victory was evidently not large enough for superdelegates to take pause.

That the number of uncommitted superdelegates declined by 19 in 72 hours also suggests that Obama could get close to the "magic number" of 2,024 faster than we were expecting, especially when the delegates of Indiana and North Carolina are allocated. The Obama campaign is now placing itself 283 delegates away from the nomination. The closer Obama gets, of course, the higher the proportion of remaining votes Clinton will have to snatch, though the Obama campaign's calculations are based on a convention with no Florida and Michigan delegates seated. If any arrangement is found in those two states, and even if just the superdelegates are allowed to sit, Obama will find himself further to a majority, breathing new life to the Clinton campaign. (Just imagine how different our conversation might have been right now if the Clinton campaign had succeeded in scheduling a revote for FL and MI on June 3rd...).

Superdelegates endorsements coming in quicker than ever

What a day in superdelegate endorsements. Yesterday, I reported that Obama had snatched 3 superdelegates to 1 for Clinton. Since then, the pace has only accelerated with 6 superdelegates coming forward (and 5 just this morning).

At this point, the conventional wisdom regarding superdelegates is that many who are currently uncommitted are privately supporting Obama and are looking for a more opportune time to come forward, perhaps hoping that the next few weeks of contests will force Clinton out of the race without their having to do anything. Politico is thus reporting that Obama backers are confident that many of the undecided supers in Congress have already decided in Obama's favor, with Claire McCaskill leading the chorus of optimists.

Yet, how much of this is spin? Over and over again over the past few months there have been rumors that Obama was about to announce a wave of superdelegate endorsements. Those rumors have never come to pass, and that suggests that these superdelegates remain undecideds no matter who they might be supporting; after all, the Obama campaign could close the deal if they obtained a big wave of superdelegate endorsements. And this is probably the best the Clinton campaign is hoping for right now; they know their case for why Obama is unelectable is not yet convincing and that they need a more evidence (that they hope will be supplied on May 6th, in KY and WV and in the consequences of the Wright controversy) to get superdelegate to reconsider. For now, all the Clinton campaign wants is to keep superdelegates patient.

Yesterday night, speculation started building again that Obama was about to unveil a number of superdelegates today to try and change the subject away from Wright and the rough week he has been having. And this time he is actually delivering, with 3 congressional endorsements for Obama this morning alone:

• Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana, who gives Obama credibility among the blue-collar constituency he needs in the Hoosier state.
• Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa, who was an Edwards supporter during the caucuses.
• Rep. Lois Capps of California.
  

In a sign of how close this primary contest has really become, Hillary Clinton has unveiled the same number of superdelegates since my last post about this yesterday:

• Bill George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.
• Rep. Ike Skelton of Missouri, the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
• Luisette Cabanas, a superdelegate from Puerto Rico who was convinced during a trip by Chelsea Clinton.
  

It goes without saying that Clinton needs much more than split superdelegates equally; the exact proportion depends on how the upcoming contests play out exactly and whether any of the FL and MI delegations are seated, but it is certain that she needs a very large majority of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to move to her side. Considering her poor track record in superdelegate endorsements since Super Tuesday, keeping the score equal is an accomplishment for her, but it is far from enough.

As the number of uncommitted superdelegate decreases without Clinton picking up a significant number, the proportion of uncommitted supers she will need to get increases; thus, keeping the number of endorsements equal is a clear victory for Obama. And the fact that 10 superdelegates have endorsed in 48 hours suggests that Clinton is running out of time, and that many are no longer willing to be patient. Howard Dean's pleas that voters make up their mind might be convincing some to step forward, and Republican efforts to attack Obama down-the-ballot might be backfiring on Clinton if Democratic superdelegates get concerned that the prolonged primary is actually starting to hurt Obama's chances in the general.

Southern special elections now feature Obama

Two of the major storylines that I had been following closely are now coinciding -- the special elections in MS-01 and LA-06 and the debate over Barack Obama's electability. Republicans have been very pessimistic about their chances in both districts (polls have shown Cazayoux leading in LA-06, and Childers came within 400 votes of picking up MS-01 in the first round). And, as we know, desperate times call for desperate ads...

Predictably, the GOP is using the old strategy of tying the local Democratic candidate to national leaders identified as ultra-liberal. For many years, the bogeyman used to be Ted Kennedy; he was soon joined by Hillary Clinton and, last year, by Nancy Pelosi. But in a development that is surprising many by how soon it came about, Kennedy and Clinton appear to have been replaced by... Obama.

Republicans are now running a series of ad "accusing" Cazayoux and Childers of ties to national Democrats, among which "liberal Barack Obama" figures prominently. It all started earlier this week, when Greg Davis released a controversial ad tying his opponent Childers to Obama and to Jeremiah Wright. Since then, the NRCC has released ads of its own; the NRCC's ads are much less controversial than Davis' and they stay away from Wright, concentrating instead on taxes and campaign donations. Here is one that is running in LA-06:


And here is the ad in MS-01 (this is now the second one that seeks to connect Childers to Obama, after Davis's ad using Wright):


Both of these ads include the name of other Democrats, John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi. As such, they are part of an effort to nationalize both of these special elections, take them away from local issues to show voters the big picture of a national fight between two national parties. Given the heavily Republican lean of both MS-01 and LA-06, Cazayoux and Childers have been doing their best to distnace themselves from their leadership in DC and portray themselves as conservative, and this is the predictable response. Note that Democrats do exactly the same thing when they link local Republicans from blue states to George Bush and they blame moderate GOP representatives for voting for a Republican speaker.

What is surprising, however, is the confidence with which Republicans are now using Obama's name. A few months ago, the GOP was concerned that Obama might durably shift party allegiances and lift the entire slate of local Democrats; there is apparently no such fear left in the NRCC's ranks. In fact, Politico details the GOP's plan to tie conservative Democrats with Obama; their article reveals that polling has been conducting in LA-06 showing Obama suffers from a very low approval rating.

Cazayoux and Childers are both expected to win at this point based on polls and on the results of the first round of voting in MS. Were they to lose, it would create a lot of chatter about Obama's down-the-ballot drag; if they win convincingly, however, Obama would likely benefit tremendously in the superdelegate chatter and Clinton's argument that Obama is too risky a proposition in the general election would be undermined. Most of it, of course, would be quite unfair; these districts are very Republican and any attempt at nationalizing the stakes is bound to help the Democratic candidates, not to mention that the GOP is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into saving them. Inversely, the RNCC's failure to use Obama's name successfully would not mean that the Senator has no electability problem; in 2006, the GOP failed at nationalizing any election no matter how hard they tried. The electorate was determined to vote for their local Democratic candidates no matter what.

For now, the GOP is succeeding in creating confusion, and early returns are worrisome for Obama's hope that superdelegates pay no attention to the GOP's confidence to run against him. Travis Childers is now distancing himself from Barack Obama, going as far as denying that Obama has endorsed him.