Tuesday polls: Obama pulls ahead in OH and is competitive in NC, while Franken and McConnell are in trouble

Finally, after weeks of being bombarded by polls from New York, Kansas and Washington State, someone thought to poll the presidential race in Ohio – and it brings welcome news to Obama’s campaign:

• Public Policy Polling released its first survey in quite a while and it shows Barack Obama trouncing John McCain 50% to 39%. As usual, Obama is weaker among registered Dems (73%) than McCain is among registered Republicans (83%). Obama is leading by 13% among independents, however. As for potential VP picks, respondents seem more inclined to be swayed by Hillary Clinton than by their governor Ted Strickland.
• Update: A commenter points out that this survey was in the field on the 17th and 18th of May. This is very strange indeed, as it represents more than a 3 week delay... Did PPP not even poll Hillary Clinton against McCain then? At the time, most pollsters did.
  

A long series of polls showing Obama weak in Ohio or at least significantly underperforming Clinton (including PPP's most recent survey released in March, repeated waves of Quinnipiac's polls and Rasmussen's May poll) was interrupted by SUSA's showing Obama comfortably ahead of McCain mid-May. PPP's poll is the first since then. Given how much care the Obama campaign is putting in cultivating alternative electoral maps that do would not require victory in Florida and Ohio, the state's 20 electoral votes almost seem like they would be a bonus that would all but ensure the Democrat's victory -- though with McCain's apparent strength in Michigan, it is essential for Democrats to contest Ohio to offset a potential disaster in Michigan.

The day's other important presidential poll is the much-discussed ABC/Washignton Post national poll:

• Barack Obama leads 48% to 42%, a margin that is little moved since ABC's previous poll, suggesting there has been little movement since the Democrat wrapped up his nomination. The WaPo is emphasizing the fact that the two candidates are tied among independents.
• Another national poll, released by Cook/RT Strategies, shows Obama leading 44% to 40%.

Last week, after the NBC polled found Obama leading by 6%, I criticized the obsession with pointing out that Kerry had never led in NBC polls in 2004 and that Bush had never beeh ahead by that much either. I pointed out that, in many other polls, Kerry had a clear lead in the early summer and that Bush was repeatedly ahead by 9-11% in September. The ABC poll is a case in point: Now, everyone is pointing out that John Kerry had the same lead in an ABC poll taken at this time four years ago. So which is it? Is an Obama lead significant because Kerry never led or significant because he was the favorite? It is important to look at a pollster's trendlines because of methodology and turnout models, but the pollster-specific comparisons of surveys that are four years apart does not seem to me to be particularly helpful.

What is somewhat significant in recently released national polls is that predictions by strategists from both camps that Obama could open a double-digit lead in the weeks after becoming the nominee have not come true, though the Democrat is consistently ahead. But it is the electoral college, of course, that will determine the winner and two important state polls were released today besides Ohio’s:

• In North Carolina, polls are now consistently showing McCain’s leading hovering around the margin of error. The latest Civitas poll finds him barely ahead 45% to 41%, with Bob Barr polling in at 2%. Last month, McCain was up by 5%.


• In Minnesota, SUSA finds Obama struggling to pull ahead, coming in at 47% against 46% for McCain. He was ahead by 5% in a poll taken two weeks ago, though that swing is within the margin of error. The big difference is the flip of the indie vote.

It is difficult to imagine North Carolina flipping if a state like Virginia does not, underscoring how close to a blow-out victory Obama would get if he keeps NC this close through November. As for Minnesota, so much for my speculations that Obama might be putting away the “Dukakis 5,” though it’s worth pointing out that most other recent MN surveys finding a more comfortable lead for Obama. But it is SUSA’s Senate poll from this state that has got to worry Democrats:

• Norm Coleman has opened up a significant lead against Al Franken, 52% to 40%, though this is stable from last month's poll that showed the Democrat trailing 52% to 42%. Franken loses the independent vote 60% to 33%.
  
• If Jesse Ventura jumps in the race (it is the second time this week this match-up is polled), Franken trails 41% to 31% with 23% for Ventura. In a sure sign of trouble for Franken, Mike Ciresi, a Democrat who dropped out of the race in February, polls slightly better than him against Coleman: 50% to 40%.

• Also today, Rasmussen released a survey of Alaska's Senate race, finding Ted Stevens surviving 46% to 44% against Mark Begich, who was narrowly ahead 47% to 45% last month. Other surveys have found larger leads for Begich.

Al Franken has been suffering through months of bad press, as controversies over tax disclosures, a 2000 essay in Playboy and a 1995 joke on rape erupted in recent weeks. Yet, polls found little movement in this (very often) polled race. But SUSA's survey is obviously bad news for the Democratic challenger as it goes along the narrative of a sinking campaign. That Franken polls roughly at the same level as a candidate who has not been campaigning for 5 months suggests that he is now underperforming the level of a generic Democrat.

Update: SUSA just released a fascinating new poll from Kentucky:

• In the presidential race, John McCain leads Obama 53% to 41%. This is a huge progression from a May poll in which Obama trailed by 24%. Look no further than the vote of registered Democrat, Obama has gone from... 48% to 59%! Still a very low number, but one that is now in line with what you would expect in Kentucky.
• In the Senate race, however, Mitch McConnell is only ahead of Bruce Lunsford 50% to 46%!

I for one have long remained unconvinced that Lunsford would be a real threat to McConnell, and given how nightmarish he would be for progressives, it is certainly my top wish among GOP-held seats. But this now the second poll that finds Lunsford to be very competitive and there is no doubt that unseating the Minority Leader would be a huge upset. Given that the DSCC is looking for second and third-tier seats to make competitive to have a shot at 60, this is not the last we will hear of Kentucky.

Senate: Ensign raises possibility of fillibuster-proof Senate, though polls find some unexepected good news for GOP

In one of the most stunning Senate developments of the year, Senator Ensign is now spinning a loss of eight senatorial seats as a relief for his party! As Ensign displaces his objective to making sure there are 41 GOP Senators remaining in January 2009, does that mean he is ready to give up on a number of contested seat to build up a firewall of seats that can still be saved, only focusing to protect incumbents like Cornyn of Texas, Dole of North Carolina, Wicker of Mississippi and McConnell of Kentucky? Sure, Ensign probably only intended to make an argument for Sen. Chambliss's reelection in that interview, but the NRSC's chairman should be more careful about the expectations he sets; such gloomy forecasts risk heightening the panic of congressional Republicans and make it even harder for the NRSC to fundraise.

It is ironic that Senate Republicans received some race good news on the day news Ensign's of comments spread. Of the three surveys released yesterday, only one brought worrisome news to the NRSC:

• In Alaska, a Hellenthal and Associates poll conducted in early May found Mark Begich leading Senator Ted Stevens 51% to 44%.
  

• In Texas, Rasmussen finds Sen. Cornyn leading Rick Noriega 52% to 35%. The previous poll, released last month, found Cornyn ahead 47% to 43%. That margin had been confirmed by a Research 2000 poll released the following week.

• Finally, a shocking Rasmussen poll from New Jersey suggests that Republicans might have a second competitive seat as Frank Lautenberg is in a toss-up when matched up to Republican Dick Zimmer, 45% to 44%.
  

Alaska is one of the Democrats' top pick-up opportunities, despite the fact that Stevens is a giant enough in Alaska politics that he should never be ruled out. Texas's status as a first-tier race was never convincing so it is not a surprise to see Cornyn up by such a large margin in this poll, though it is true that two back-to-back polls showed Noriega's potential to make this a competitive race. Five months out, he has a lot of work to do to soften Cornyn before truly testing his vulnerabilities.

As for New Jersey, races here are always fascinating to follow as Republicans often seem on the verge of scoring a big upset and toppling the incumbent and spend a lot of money, only to see the race slip out of their grip. This is what happened in the 2004 presidential race and the 2006 senatorial race and you can bet some Democrats are not that unhappy about this poll, hoping it might push the GOP to invest heavily in Zimmer. Just as Kean in 2006, Republicans would have a much better chance of finally winning a statewide race if the national environment was not so disastrous for them. They will have a compelling case to make that Lautenberg is no longer fit for office (he is, after all, 86 years old).

Finally, in Minnesota, Al Franken launched his general election campaign by attacking Norm Coleman and trying to link him to President Bush. Franken's strategy is simple, especially after the recent controversies that have surrounded him about his comedian years: Make this race a referendum about the incumbent and his ties to the Republican Party. At his rally yesterday, Franken denounced the "Bush-Coleman recession." Coleman's counter-strategy is already crystal-clear as well: Make this a referendum about Franken instead, and the DFL-endorsed candidate is polarizing enough that Coleman does have an opening to focus the conversation on his opponent.

Another important factor to look for in Minnesota will be how unified the party becomes around Franken. Senator Klochubar, who had denounced Franken's allegedly pornographic essay two weeks ago, spoke at his rally yesterday. But Rep. McCollum, Franken's most insist critic in the state delegation, was not.

Friday polls: Preparing for May 20th, and new results from Alaska and Maine's Senate races

The political world's attention has turned away from the Democratic primaries -- to the great frustration of the 5 states and territories that have not gotten a chance to vote. So close to mattering, Kentucky and Oregon will still decide the conditions in which the Democratic candidates finish the race, how much talk there is of Obama's general election vulnerabilities and also -- and this could obviously prove important -- whether Clinton is at all in a position to drag this thing to the convention. Two new polls from ARG suggest Clinton could have a very good day on May 20th, when Kentucky and Oregon hold their primaries:

• In Oregon, ARG finds Obama to be ahead only 50% to 45%.
  
• Oregon's primary is entirely mail-in and 58% of respondents said they had already turned in their ballot. Among those, Clinton and Obama are tied at 49%. Note that this is the second poll in which Clinton is tied with Obama among this group of voters but trailing overall (SUSA was the first a few days ago) suggesting the Obama camp might be demobilizing.

• Meanwhile, ARG shows Clinton crushing Obama 65% to 29% in Kentucky, including 73% of white voters. Note that Edwards is once again on the ballot here so we will see if he can repeat his West Virginia exploits.

In the list of "what if"s that must be haunting the Clinton campaign is something they had no control over and that no one really thought would matter until the morning of February 6th -- what if West Virginia and Kentucky were scheduled to vote in the latter half of February instead of, say, Maryland and Louisiana. Or Virginia and Wisconsin. Would Obama have built the same unstoppable momentum, putting Clinton in an untenable position in the run-up to March 4th? The quickness with which the race went from "this is a pure toss-up" on February 6th to "is there any path for Clinton to win the nomination" on February 13th was one of the most remarkable stretches of time of this entire campaign.

Meanwhile, general election polls were released today:

• First, a Strategic Vision poll from Georgia shows McCain leading Obama by a 54% to 40%.

This is not as huge a margin as Republicans can hope, but it's hard to see a path for Obama to make this state competitive for now, despite talk of that in some Democratic circles. Georgia has been one of the states that has been trending the most Republican in the past few years. It was the only state where Republicans got close to winning a Dem-held seat in 2006 (not one, but two!) and consider that this same Strategic Vision poll shows that the leading Democrat in the senatorial primary is someone who professes to have voted for Bush in both 2000 and 2004... Also:

• A Rasmussen poll from Kansas shows McCain not trembling against either Democrat in this deep red state. He leads Obama 55% to 34% and Clinton 53% to 39%.
  

• A Rasmussen poll from Maine shows both Democrats leading McCain 51% to 38%, a good margin in a sometimes-tight state where a close victory would mean the loss of an electoral vote.
  

• Also, a Rasmussen poll from Washington confirms that WA will be less competitive this year than in 2000 (it wasn't at the front of Dem worries in 04). Obama leads 51% to 40%, Clinton 47% to 42% -- very similar margins to yesterday's SUSA poll.

• Finally, Alaska is the big surprise of the day as polls continue to show a single-digit general election race in what is supposed to be a Republican blowout. Research 2000 finds McCain leading 49% to 42% (Clinton trails 55% to 37%) and Rasmussen finds McCain leading 50% to 41% -- slightly larger but still underwhelming.
  

Alaska's tightness is the only shocking finding of these numbers, though McCain was certainly hoping to keep both Washington and Maine closer due to his appeal among independents. Maine has been a state where both Kerry and Gore have feared losing one of the districts and thus an electoral vote (ME and NE are the only non-winner-take-all states) and Democrats would not like to have to spend money to defend just one electoral vote come the fall campaign.

Finally, three down-the-ballot polls, both from Rasmussen, give something to spin to both parties:

• In Washington, Christine Gregoire has opened a surprising 52% to 41% lead against challenger Dino Rossi in the gubernatorial race. All polls of this race have shown a complete toss-up, with the animosity of the 2004 campaign translating to fixed positions in 2008. So until there is confirmation that there has been movement, consider this to be an outlier.

• Meanwhile, in Maine's Senate race, Rasmussen finds Susan Collins leading Tom Allen by 10 percent, 52% to 42%. This is down from a 16% lead last month.

• Finally, a new Rasmussen poll from Alaska shows Mark Begich leading Ted Stevens 47% to 45% -- a confirmation of the trouble Stevens is in after a Research 2000 poll showed him trailing by 5% earlier this week. The previous Rasmussen poll showed Stevens leading by 1%.
  

It's hard to know what to make of the Maine Senate race. This has been one of the Democrats' top target since the beginning. But a series of polls in the fall showing Collins with huge leads against Allen showed that this would not be a repeat of Rhode Island's 2006 race and that Collins had a much more solid base among independents and Democrats (a base any Republican Senator needs in Maine). In this poll, she gets 34% of Democrats and the two candidates are tied among independents. Also, this poll finds her with a 70% favorability rating, including 32% saying they have a very favorable impression of her. And Tom Allen is no unknown...

Yet, in a Democratic year in a Democratic state with a strong candidate, Democrats are not out of the running yet. A 10 percent lead is still not enough to make this a top-tier race, but it looks like the increase of partisanship could be making Collins more vulnerable, and the disparity between her favorability rating and her vote percentage is telling of the same difficulty that plagued Chaffee in Rhode Island. But she remains above 50 percent so we will wait for confirmation that there is any tightening at all here.

Senate diary: GOP trouble extends to the upper chamber

Senate Republicans are not quite in the panic mode felt by their House colleagues, but they are facing as dangerous an environment. Last week, I pondered whether the Senate map was expanding with races in Texas and North Carolina getting surprisingly more competitive. Today, the news is coming from races that are expected to be tight, but the extent to which the Republicans' situation is deteriorating is remarkable.

First, polls from two key Senate races brings troubling news to the GOP:

• In New Mexico, Democratic Rep. Tom Udall is destroying the two Republicans congressmen that are also vying for this open seat. He crushes Steve Pearce 60% to 36% and Heather Wilson 61% to 35%. Udall is leading more than 3:1 among Hispanics, who make up a third of voters. With a margin like that it becomes very difficult for Republicans to beat him.
  
• Pearce and Wilson are locked in a tight (and nasty) primary battle, with Pearce edging her out 49% to 46%.

• Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll from Alaska shows Senator Ted Stevens trailing his challenger Mark Begich 48% to 43%. The margin is 20% among independents.

Both seats are looking increasingly vulnerable. New Mexico has long been leaning Democratic, but it is rapidly moving towards the beyond contestable. The GOP has to hope that the primary doesn't get more nasty and that their nominee gets a nice bounce from his or her nomination. In a way that could be good for the GOP who can free up its resources elsewhere rather than waste them on such a difficult race. As for Alaska, any incumbent as entrenched as Stevens who is trailing a challenger with 7 months to go is in big trouble. The poll shows Stevens with a 38% versus 58% favorability rating -- a clear consequence of the corruption investigation he is involved in.

Meanwhile, the DSCC is going on the attack in Oregon. The Democratic primary is next Tuesday, and it opposes Steve Novick to Jeff Merkley. Novick has been running an unconventional anti-establishment campaign, one which the DSCC disapproves of as they are helping the candidate they recruited, House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Chuck Schumer has been giving Merkley advice and the DSCC is now phone banking in Merkley's behalf. Note that most public polling of the general election shows both Democrats looking as electable.

But what is also remarkable about this race is that the DSCC is already airing ads against the Republican Senator Gordon Smith. Sure, they are doing it through ads whose primary purpose is to elevate Merkley, but May is very early for a congressional committee to be going on the attack against an incumbent senator. This confirms how seriously national Democrats are taking the Oregon race, a state they were excited about at the beginning of the cycle but where they failed to recruit their preferred candidates and are now confronting the fact that Smith looks stronger than expected (among the initial list of competitive seats, only ME is more of a disappointment for Dems). The DSCC realizes that they need to soften up Smith as early as possible to make him truly vulnerable for the general election campaign.

Finally, Colorado is also making news because of a silly gaffe by Republican candidate Bob Schaffer. Already hit by an ethics story over his ties with Jack Abramoff (with one independent group already airing an ad in the state about it), Schaffer is now struggling from the surprisingly intense fallout from an ad he started airing this week to tout his Colorado roots. In the ad, he professes having proposed to his wife on Pikes Peak, the famous Colorado mountain, but the mountain that is used in the footage is one of Mount McKinley in Alaska... The newspapers are having a field day (the Denver Post posted a clip of Marvin Gaye's "Ain't No Mountain High Enough") and the DSCC has already gone on the offensive with a brutal ad hitting Schaffer for the mountain mix-up and throwing in the Abramoff connection for good measure:



Political gaffes are never so hurtful as when they reinforce a prior impression. Macaca was so damaging to Senator Allen in 2006 because there was a story to be told about his racism. Given that the reason Schaffer was running this ad in the first place was questions about his attachment to Colorado, it reinforces doubts people might be having about him and makes him look to be pandering in the process. This is certainly not as damaging as the DSCC is touting it to be, but it's been a rough few weeks for Schaffer and it's also an opportunity for Democrats to re-air the Abramoff images.

Also, expect new Senate rankings within the next week.

Congressional diary: Begich declares in Alaska, GOP loses candidates in Arizona

The day's most important congressional news, of course, is the first round of the special election in Mississippi's first district; I will get to that race shortly, when I post my guidelines for what to watch for tonight. Two other important congressional news that are unfolding this week concern recruitment and, as has become typical in this cycle, Democrats have once again been more successful than Republicans.

In Alaska's Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich announced his candidacy against GOP Senator Ted Stevens. Begich had formed an explanatory committee at the end of February, the first step toward a formal declaration of candidacy, so this week's step is not surprising. But it confirms that Alaska will be the stage for one of the cycle's most disputed Senate races. Stevens is a giant of Alaska politics; first elected in 1970, he has received at least 67% in every one of his re-election races since 1972. He is now considerably weakened by a corruption scandal and an FBI investigation and faces a potentially tricky primary.

Most polls have shown a toss-up, with the latest (from Rasmussen) finding Stevens up 1%. Other polls released earlier in the year found Begich leading. This race is likely to rise in my next Senate rankings -- which should hopefully come out shortly (I know it has been a very long time since I have updated them).

In Arizona, meanwhile, Republicans are playing defense in the first district. Ethically embattled Rep. Renzi retired a few months ago, improving the Republicans' chance of holding the seat. But that still requires finding a strong candidate to run... something the GOP has not been able to do. Their latest efforts focused on convincing Ken Bennett, a former state Senate president who had already declined to run, that he should reconsider. Bennett (re-)announced this week that he would stay out of the race despite this being a "tough decision." This leaves Republicans with Sydney Hay, the president of the Arizona Mining Association. Democrats have the opposite problem -- a competitive primary.

And don't forget that there are still is a possibility Renzi might be forced to resign, potentially creating a special election; given turnout differential between the two parties, those have tended to be favorable to Democrats this year. AZ-01 is rated as lean take-over in my latest House ratings.

Congressional diary: Republicans catch two breaks in House, but struggle in Senate

It is rare for there to be much news from Democratic-held House seats, as the GOP gave up on many of the districts it not so long ago was so intent on challenging. But it got two breaks this week in two races that the NRCC has long believed could be very competitive: NY-19 and TX-22.

In NY-19, Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate their candidate Andrew Saul as one of their best recruitment coups of the cycle until, that is, Saul unexpectedly dropped out of the race in mid-November. Followed 5 months of confusion in which the NRCC struggled to convince any Republican to take on Hall and all but gave up on its efforts, leading me to demote the seat to "potentially competitive," the lowest category, in my latest House rankings.

Now, the GOP has found a candidate: George Oros, the leader of the Westchester County Legislature. When declaring his candidacy yesterday, Oros was surrounded by former Governor Pataki and former Representative Kelly (who Hall defeated in 2006) -- exemplifying that the Republican establishment trusts him to get this race competitive again. New York's Republican Party is in a dire state, having lost 3 of seats in 2006 and having to defend many more this year. It is also on the brink of losing the state Senate, and is likely to spend much effort defending that bastion of theirs. Those factors, combined with how late Oros is jumping in the race, guarantee that the Democrat starts the race as favored -- but this development is definitely good news for the NRCC's last-ditch effort to expand the map to Democratic-held seats.

Meanwhile, TX-22 is a seat no one ever expected to be an easy hold for Democrats. The former seat of Tom DeLay was won by Nick Lampson in 2006 after an absurdist campaign in which DeLay messed up his retirement, preventing the GOP from replacing him on the ballot. Republicans settled on a write-in campaign on behalf of Shelley Sekula Gibbs but came short in what had become a quixotic quest.

TX-22 is in one of the most conservative districts of Texas, and it has always been obvious that it is among the Democrats' 2-3 most vulnerable seats this cycle. But some Republicans were worried that Sekula Gibbs had become too much of a liability after spending a controversial few months in Washington (she had won the special election to replace DeLay until January 07, though the Democrats had not fielded a candidate for the special); they were concerned that nominating her could doom their chances in a district they passionately believe belongs to them.

Last month, the first round of the primary showed Sekula Gibbs coming ahead of Pete Olson 28% to 24% in a crowded field; a runoff was organized this Tuesday between the two and Olson crushed Sekula Gibbs with stunning ease, 68% to 32%. Republicans are upbeat about Olson's strength; given the Republican nature of the district (Bush won with 64% in 2004) and the fact that the NRCC is sure to use here whatever ressources it saves up for offense, Lampson will have a very difficult surviving past November.

• Senate polls: GOP struggling in Alaska and New Mexico

Rasmussen released two polls from Senate races this morning from some of the year's most competitive races. Both of these seats are currently held by Republicans:

• In New Mexico's open seat, Democrat Udall is leading both Republicans, 54% to 40% against Steve Pearce and 56% to 36% against Heather Wilson. All three candidates are currently members of the House.

• In Alaska, meanwhile, it is a toss-up between entrenched Senator Stevens and his challenger Mark Begich who just recently jumped in the race in one of the DSCC's biggest recruitment coups. Rasmussen finds Stevens ahead 46% to 45% against Begich, obviously a dangerous place to be for any incumbent.
  

Stevens has become a very controversial figure due to the FBI investigation surrounding him and the state's entire Republican Party. Rasmussen finds Stevens' favorability rating to be standing at a dismal 50% (against 47%), including 47% from unaffiliated voters. Among Republicans, Stevens gets 71% of the vote. That he is able to hang on with such troubles and numbers points to (1) the overwhelmingly Republican nature of Alaska, where Democrats have been rebuffed in promising take-over efforts in both 2004 and 2006, and (2) Stevens' entrenchment (he is the longest serving Republican Senator).

Begich jumps in Alaska Senate race, in major Democratic recruitement coup

The Alaska Senate race just became one of the top races to watch. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is set to announce his candidacy against incumbent GOP Senator Ted Stevens, a major recruitment coup for the DSCC.

On paper, the race hardly looks like it would be competitive. Stevens is one of the most entrenched Senators, first elected to the Senate in a special election in 1970. In fact, since his 1972 re-election he has never received less than 67% of the vote and he is known for bringing back plenty of pork to his home state. To make matters worse for Democrats, the last time they won a federal race in Alaska was in 1974 with... Mike Gravel! Since then, they have held the governor's mansion but come out with some disappointing finishes in congressional elections (especially Tony Knowles's 2004 defeat).

But the Alaska Republican Party is struggling in a giant corruption probe that has engulfed Rep. Young and Sen. Stevens, whose house was raided in 2007. In September, when it was revealed that the FBI had recorded phone conversations between Stevens and a businessman who has confessed to bribing Stevens's son and sending company employees renovate Stevens's house, even the state's Republican Governor distanced herself from Stevens. These developments have fueled speculation that Stevens might not run for re-election -- Stevens has denied that possibility and is preparing to run -- and have gotten Stevens a primary challenge that does not look that threatening but that will require the incumbent to spend even more time fighting to retain his seat. And he has to do while fearing the tricke of negative stories and the progress of the investigation.

The most recent poll of a Stevens-Begich match-up was taken in December by Research 2000, an independent firm that had been commissioned by Daily Kos (this does not really count as an internal poll, since Kos is releasing numbers that look bad for Democrats as well, for example a survey showing Allen down by a huge margin against Collins in Maine). It shows Begich leading Stevens 47% to 41%, confirming that this race will be one of the most interesting ones to watch in the next few months.

Congressional diary: Will Alaska and Mississippi rise to the top tier of Senate races?

I usually try to cover congressional races every day, but the latest time I wrote a post on Senate or House contests was on December 19th. Clearly, the end of the year is making congressional elections quiet, and the only reason we have this much to cover right now is that Iowa is voting on January 3rd. But there definitely are a few newsworthy item down-the-ballot.

MS-Sen: Trent Lott officially resigned on the 18th, and Governor Barbour by law has 11 days to appoint a replacement, so we should know today or tomorrow who the new Senator from Mississippi is. Things should go pretty quickly after that: If Democrats want to drag Barbour to court (as they clearly are planning to do they will have to do so fast.

And here is some hope for Democrats in this race: An internal poll conducted by the Musgrove campaign (by the Democratic-leaning Greenberg group) and obtained by the Daily Journal has Musgrove leading one of the two likely GOP nominees, Rep. Wicker, 48% to 34%. A Research 2000 poll conducted last week had Wicker up by single-digits on Musgove, but it looks like the Research 2000 poll significantly under-polled African-Americans. This internal poll is reportedly much closer to the actual proportion of black voters: 33% (34% of the electorate in the last statewide election was African-American).

Another reason to give credence to this poll more than to the typical internal poll: Surveys taken when a candidate is still looking to jump in the race are often conducted to measure whether the race could be competitive and whether it is worth it for the candidate to jump in, so it seems unlikely they would want to make it too bias for their candidate since that would defeat the point. So does this mean that (1) Musgrove will jump in the race after seeing such numbers, and that (2) we have a real race in our hands?

AK-Sen: Two news items in the Alaska Senate race. One, Senator Ted Stevens has drawn a primary challenger, very wealthy developer David Cuddy who already challenged Stevens in 1996 -- only drawing 27%. Times are different today and all GOP incumbents are ultra-tarnished by corruption scandals. The incumbent govenor came in third in a primary just last year. Stevens is one of the most entrenched incumbents in the country, and he is obvioulsy favored to win the nomination again; but he will have to fight for it... and could this push him to renounce to running for re-election if he does not want to spend the whole year campaigning? That would actually be a benediction for Republicans, as a fresh untarnished face could have an easier time holding the seat.

And the second item is about Mark Begich, the Anchorage Mayor who Democrats want to see jump in the race against Stevens. The news last month was that Begich would not announce a run before the spring (March or April) but that he would let people know by the end of 2007 if he was not running to let other people have a change to go for it. In other words, if we did not hear anything by the end of the year, we should assume that Begich is running. Going on that, it now is looking increasingly likely that we will see a real contest in Alaska, since Begich has the ability to make this a top-tier race (a recent poll had him leading Stevens).

Afternoon polls: Democrats strong in Alaska and in the Tri-State area

• GOP in trouble in Alaska
  

Research 2000 just released a poll commissioned by Daily Kos, and it has some awful news for Alaska Republicans:

• In the at-large House race, incumbent GOP Rep. Don Young trails Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 49% to 42%.
• In the Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Begich leads incumbent GOPer Ted Stevens 47% to 41%.

Alaska Republicans have been facing massive corruption investigations that has already endangered many state-level politicians. Don Young and Ted Stevens are both involved and under investigation as well, and fresh details and allegations are regularly exposed in the media. That is bad for any incumbent, even for someone like Stevens who has been serving in the Senate for decade (he is the longest-serving Republican). The investigation has been picking up in recent months, with executives acknowledging that their employees had worked on renovations of Stevens's house that was raided earlier in the summer by the FBI.

In House race, Berkowitz is officially in the race -- and this is the third poll out of three that has him leading (though I believe it is the first non-internal survey). In the Senate race, Begich is not yet a candidate, but there are indications he is looking to get in: It appears that Begich will not officially declare a run before the spring, but that he will announce he is not running by the end of 2007 to let someone else go for it if he does not want to. So we will essentially know what the situation is in the coming three weeks -- though Stevens retiring could slightly improve GOP chances still. I have rated the seat "Lean retention" and ranked it 9th for now in my latest Senate rankings.

• Rasmussen polls the Tri-State region
  

Rasmussen released two new polls over the week-end from New Jersey and Connecticut pitting a three way race involving Mike Bloomberg. Their conclusion: Bloomberg is firmly in double-digits, and his strength depends on who the candidates of both parties are.

• In New Jersey, Clinton gets 46% to Giuliani's 38% and Bloomberg's 12%. But if the candidates are Obama and Huckabee, it's 42% to 27% for the Democrat, with Bloomberg at 18%.
• In Connecticut, Clinton gets 45% to 36% for Giuliani and 12% for Bloomberg. It's 40-29-18 if Obama and Huckabee are tested.

The numbers are not really comparable since Bloomberg surely benefits from Huckabee's much lower name recognition in the second set of numbers, as well as from the fact that the Tri-state area is basically home territory for Clinton and Giuliani. But Bloomberg definitely has the potential and room to grow. This also confirms that Giuliani would make the coastal states more competitive than they have been in recent cycles but that Clinton would still have the clear upper-hand, something that is confirmed by most other polls.

Omaha Mayor is out, but is the Anchorage Mayor in?

Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey just announced that he will not run for the open Senate seat of Nebraska, making him the second high-profile Democrat to pass on the race. The first, of course, was former Governor and former Senator Bob Kerrey who many believed would have been favored against Republican heavyweight Johanns. Kerrey's withdrawal had made Nebraska drop from fourth to 13th in my Senate Rankings -- and Mike Fahey confirms that the seat is getting out of reach for Democrats.

Fahey would have had a hard time winning in such a conservative state against a popular politician like Johanns, but he would have kept the race competitive, potentially setting up an upset if the GOP primary ends up being very bloody and divisive and if the environment really continues to deteriorate for the GOP. Democrats are now likely to pressure Scott Kleeb to run -- underscoring how thin the Nebraska bench is for Dems.

Kleeb was the Democratic nominee in NE-03 in 2006. NE-03 is the sixth most Republican district in the country, but Kleeb got a stunning 45% of the vote after running a surprisingly competitive campaign. But that was a House seat, and former Governor Johanns is a much more formidable candidate, especially in a presidential year. So Democrats can't expect too much from Kleeb despite his strong 2006 performance. Nebraska is no longer a first or second tier race, despite Democratic hopes earlier in the fall. We shall probably know more very soon, as there are rumors of a poll that is to be released later in the week.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to make Alaska a top-tier race come 2008. The Washington Post has a great must-read article on the corruption scandals that are exploding in the state and the FBI investigations surrounding Senator Ted Stevens and Rep. Young, both Republicans. The article recapitulates the events and suscipions that are rocking the state and in which so many top business executives and state legislators (as well as Stevens's son) are heavily implicated.

Kos reports that Mark Begich, the popular Anchorage Mayor, is taking a hard look at the race as the DSCC is heavily courting him; and it looks like Schumer (and Kos) are increasingly confident that Begich is preparing for a run. But it looks like Begich will not declare his candidacy if he runs before... the spring, possibly as late as May. Begich's thinking is that it takes little money to run a competitive campaign in Alaska, so he would have ample time to fundraise and start campaigning then. (Though he is running against a mega-incumbent, the longest-serving Senate Republican and a towering figure of state politics... So he might need more time to topple Stevens).

However, Begich is also saying that he will let people know soon if he is not running to let another candidate get in the race. So if Begich has not announced in the next 2-3 months that he is NOT running, he probably will... And he could very well put Stevens in huge trouble, especially if the Senator has to deal with constant revelations about his corruption.

And in one last piece of Senate news, Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss (the Republican with the infamous 2002 ads linking Cleland to Ben Laden) is comfortably leading his second-tier Democratic opponents in a new Rasmussen poll: Of the three match-ups tested, broadcast investigative journalist Dale Cardwell gets the closest but is still behind 52% to 36%. Chambliss is viewed favorably by 60% of voters, so Democrats are unlikely to be able to mount a strong challenge against him.

Second tier congressional races making some news

• How long can Stevens hold on?

Ted Stevens might very well be a beloved immovable politician, there's got to be a point at which the mountain of allegations against him starts to hurt him. Just a few days ago was revealed that the FBI had recorded phone conversations between Stevens and a businessman who has confessed to bribing Stevens's son.

Today, newly elected Republican Governor Palin put some pressure on Stevens to explain himself. In an interview with the Anchorage News Daily, Palin asserted that many Alaskans are still ready to support Stevens but they would need a more thorough explanation:Not hearing anything in terms of information that can be shared regarding the Senator's innocence is kind of frustrating for Alaskan. Alaskans are getting more anxious to hear any information that he can provide regarding his innocence." While Palin's vision of Alaska voters waiting anxiously for Stevens to give them even the vaguest indication of his innocence seems quite naive, it is remarkable that Stevens, who is embroiled in a massive bribery investigation and is running for re-election next year, has hardly said anything of these matters.

Democrats simply have to find a candidate to run against Stevens who could at worst be ready to benefit from more revelations against Stevens and at best make Stevens really sweat it out. No matter how much federal money Stevens can bring home from Washington, a strong Democrat could turn this into a competitive race. All eyes are still turned to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

• TN-Sen: Democrats looking to expand the map
  

One of the reasons of the Democratic success in 2006 was the DSCC's ability to expand the map and challenge many Republican incumbents simultaneously, forcing the GOP to play defense and reducing its ability to attack Democratic incumbents. With that in mind, Democrats are trying to find new races to challenge. And many are now celebrating Michael Ray McWherter's decision to form an exploratory committee in the Tennessee Senate race, in against incumbent GOP Senator Lamar Alexander. McWerter is the son of a former Tennessee Governor, and could have the name ID to run an effective campaign against Alexander.

For now, this race is barely on anyone's radar screen, and McWherter's potential entrance would not change that. McWherther has not been visibly involved in Tennessee politics (despite playing some behind-the-scenes roles), and Alexander has never appeared particularly vulnerable. Ford's narrow defeat in the 2006 open seat here showed how difficult it is for a Democrat to win in Tennessee. Also, sons of former political stars do not appear to have a natural boost: When Carter's son ran in the Nevada Senate race against Ensign in 2006, he was hardly noticed by the media or by the netroots and Ensign won re-election easily -- even in that most Democratic of years.

But Democrats could at least force the NRSC to devote some attention and resources to put Tennessee away. And a distracted GOP is considerably weaker.

• Here's one seat that will not open up

Rep. McHugh of NY had been rumored to eye retirement over the past week, which had gotten GOP leaders worried given the number of seats that have already opened up. McHugh won very comfortably in 2006 (with more than 60% of the vote), but Democrats are smelling blood in upstate New York and are looking to pick-up the last few Republicans districts remaining in the state.

The GOP breathed a collective sigh of relief yesterday when John McHugh announced that he had no retirement plans whatsoever: "I have never told anyone otherwise and I have never at any time told anyone I was thinking of retiring and, as the Washington Post put it, ‘wanting to go home...’ My campaign is going forward on those matters necessary to wage another successful effort and when the time comes, we will be ready." At least for the time being, NY-23 remains safely Republican.

Stevens facing yet another scandal

New revelations have emerged about Alaska Senator Ted Stevens's ethical (and legal) misconduct. And this only a short week after a VECO executive revealed in court that employees from his company had worked on renovations on Stevens's house and that he had bribed Stevens's son Ben. And a month after the FBI raided said house in Girdwood, Alaska.

Yesterday, the AP reported that the FBI had recorded phone conversations between Allen and Stevens. Allen, who has by now pleaded guilty to bribery charges, agreed to collaborate. Furthermore, the FBI videotaped meetings between VECO contractors and state politicians in Juneau, Alaska. Corruption charges are being investigated not only against Stevens, but also against Rep. Young, Alaska's sole House member, and against members of the Alaska legislature. The entire Alaska GOP is in deep trouble.

Stevens has still not displayed any intention of retiring, and no major Democrat has entered the race (though speculation surrounds the popular Anchorage Mayor). But how long can Stevens sustain such a barrage of negative press? Do Democrats still prefer an open seat at this point, or would they rather take Stevens head-on? Stevens has accumulated a ton of seniority in the Senate, and is a very influential member. He has always brought a lot of federal funds home to Alaska, and remains very popular. He would not be easy to beat no matter how much the FBI's investigation picks up.

The biggest worry Republicans must have at the moment, however, is that everything indicates that the FBI has no intention to back down on this investigation, and that this is very much an ongoing thing. There are new damning revelations weekly at this point, and while Stevens has not been indicted up to this point, how long can he avoid that fate now that the FBI has all these collaborating witnesses? We saw in 2006 what happens when incumbents are indicted only a few months before the election or have to face a daily increasing body of allegations against them: Democrats now hold Ney's OH-18, PA-10, NY-20...

In other Senate news, Swett has now withdrawn from the NH Senate race, leaving Jeanne Shaheene a step closer to the Democratic nomination. Despite reservations, two of the three Democrats who were in the race have now withdrawn (Marchand was the first), leaving Dartmouth professor Buckley as the sole adversary of Shaheen. It will be interesting to see whether the Left groups around Buckley to protest against Shaheen's moderation (there were some inkling of that last week).