Senate diary: Schumer sets the stage, polls confirm

Chuck Schumer, the chairman of the DSCC, briefed reporters yesterday about his party's chances in the various competitive seats. There were very little surprises, with most states falling where we expect them to and roughly where they are ranked in my Senate rankings, except for two seats: Schumer described Alaska as a "top target," the group of seat made up of VA, NH, NM and CO in which Schumer said the Democrats are ahead. While polls are showing Sen. Stevens to be in huge trouble, Alaska is still near unanimously described as at best a toss-up given how structurally Republican the state is.

The second surprise is that Schumer rated Mississippi's Senate race with "red-state seats in striking range" (with the company of for now not very competitive NC and KY) rather than with what he described as the "second tier" (made up of OR, ME and MN). A recent poll showed Democrat Musgrave leading the incumbent Republican in Mississippi, after all, while Democrats are having trouble putting Oregon and Maine truly in play. The chairman of the DSCC is expected to spin races as more competitive than they could believably be, but his downrating them is more surprising; does it suggest he has seen numbers we don't have access to?

Meanwhile, a few polls released over the past 2 days confirm our impression of various races:

• In the most interesting of these three surveys, Rasmussen shows Senator Collins of Maine is crushing her Democratic challenger 54% to 38%.
• Her favorability rating stands at a very impressive 72%, making Allen's 59% look weak in comparison.
  

• In Tennessee, incumbent Lamar Alexander is not trembling against two potential opponents, coming in with 58% and 59% depending on the match-up.
  

• In Alabama, Senator Sessions is showing no sign of vulnerability, leading Democrat Vivian Davis Figures 58% to 36% and posting a 72% favorability rating also.

Neither TN nor AL are attracting anyone's attention; Schumer didn't even list them on as sleepers, outsider races (a list that includes TX [fair enough], OK, and less convincing ID, NE, KS and... GA).

Maine, of course, is a much more interesting case. Democrats were very excited about recruiting Allen and were confident they would be able do to Collins what they did to Chafee in 2006; a fairly popular incumbent, Chafee could not hold on as a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic state in an overwhelmingly Democratic year. But Collins has proved much more resistant: Maine is not Rhode Island and the high favorability rating she enjoys will make it very difficult for Democrats to convince voters that she was a blind surrogate of the Bush Administration. A 54% to 38% margin is actually much smaller than what we are used to seeing in Maine... which is saying a lot about how difficult the race has been for Allen so far.

Finally, a quick note on the Oregon Senate race about which Democrats were initially as excited as about Maine's, but failed to recruit their top-tier potential candidates. They then touted the candidacy of Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. But the DSCC's preferred candidate is facing a competitive primary and -- 6 weeks from the May 20th primary -- he is coming in third in a SUSA poll released Monday, behind attorney Steve Novick who has been running hard for months. It's worth noting that in both public polls of the race so far Novick runs stronger than Merkley does, so this is not to say that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot. But the DSCC is known for sometimes giving up on a seat if the candidate they see as the most competitive fails to make it through the primary.

In non-senatorial news, finally, SUSA released a poll from Washington's governor races, confirming that the race is as consistent a toss-up as it possibly could be since it is picking up exactly where we left off four years ago. Christine Gregoire is edging out Dino Rossi by a statistically insignificant 48% to 47%.

Senate news: No more challenger in Tennessee, but there is Mississippi to compensate

• Tennessee Democrat drops out
  

Mike McWherter, the leading Democratic challenger for the Senate seat of Lamar Alexander, just withdrew from the race, explaining his move with family considerations. Democrats never had much hope for this race, though they were at least confident that McWhether would self-fund his candidacy given his personal wealth. I had ranked the seat 17th most vulnerable in my most recent rankings, but at least the Democrats had a candidate that would have been able to take advantage of a macaca-like moment by the incumbent.

So this is not major congressional news, but insofar as the DSCC prides itself of "expanding the map" and putting many seats in play, it ought to be mentioned that they have not gotten very far in Tennessee.

• Mississippi Update

News is obviously unfolding fast in Mississippi, and the consensus this Tuesday morning appears to be that Democrats would try and challenge Barbour in court if Lott resigns in 2007 and Barbour schedules the special election next November. Jim Hood, the current state Attorney General, is siding with the argument that a special election would be necessary within 100 days and is not ruling out legal action. This could turn into chaos pretty fast.

As for the candidates, the WaPo's Fix reports that Schumer has already spoken to Mike Moore, who released a statement in the evening: "As for me, I appreciate all the calls I have received from friends, colleagues, and supporters today encouraging me to run. I will make my decision soon." Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove had already said yesterday he was interested and would take a decision soon as well. The Fix also says the current AG Jim Hood will not run, further restricting the list of potential candidates on the Democratic side.

Second tier congressional races making some news

• How long can Stevens hold on?

Ted Stevens might very well be a beloved immovable politician, there's got to be a point at which the mountain of allegations against him starts to hurt him. Just a few days ago was revealed that the FBI had recorded phone conversations between Stevens and a businessman who has confessed to bribing Stevens's son.

Today, newly elected Republican Governor Palin put some pressure on Stevens to explain himself. In an interview with the Anchorage News Daily, Palin asserted that many Alaskans are still ready to support Stevens but they would need a more thorough explanation:Not hearing anything in terms of information that can be shared regarding the Senator's innocence is kind of frustrating for Alaskan. Alaskans are getting more anxious to hear any information that he can provide regarding his innocence." While Palin's vision of Alaska voters waiting anxiously for Stevens to give them even the vaguest indication of his innocence seems quite naive, it is remarkable that Stevens, who is embroiled in a massive bribery investigation and is running for re-election next year, has hardly said anything of these matters.

Democrats simply have to find a candidate to run against Stevens who could at worst be ready to benefit from more revelations against Stevens and at best make Stevens really sweat it out. No matter how much federal money Stevens can bring home from Washington, a strong Democrat could turn this into a competitive race. All eyes are still turned to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

• TN-Sen: Democrats looking to expand the map
  

One of the reasons of the Democratic success in 2006 was the DSCC's ability to expand the map and challenge many Republican incumbents simultaneously, forcing the GOP to play defense and reducing its ability to attack Democratic incumbents. With that in mind, Democrats are trying to find new races to challenge. And many are now celebrating Michael Ray McWherter's decision to form an exploratory committee in the Tennessee Senate race, in against incumbent GOP Senator Lamar Alexander. McWerter is the son of a former Tennessee Governor, and could have the name ID to run an effective campaign against Alexander.

For now, this race is barely on anyone's radar screen, and McWherter's potential entrance would not change that. McWherther has not been visibly involved in Tennessee politics (despite playing some behind-the-scenes roles), and Alexander has never appeared particularly vulnerable. Ford's narrow defeat in the 2006 open seat here showed how difficult it is for a Democrat to win in Tennessee. Also, sons of former political stars do not appear to have a natural boost: When Carter's son ran in the Nevada Senate race against Ensign in 2006, he was hardly noticed by the media or by the netroots and Ensign won re-election easily -- even in that most Democratic of years.

But Democrats could at least force the NRSC to devote some attention and resources to put Tennessee away. And a distracted GOP is considerably weaker.

• Here's one seat that will not open up

Rep. McHugh of NY had been rumored to eye retirement over the past week, which had gotten GOP leaders worried given the number of seats that have already opened up. McHugh won very comfortably in 2006 (with more than 60% of the vote), but Democrats are smelling blood in upstate New York and are looking to pick-up the last few Republicans districts remaining in the state.

The GOP breathed a collective sigh of relief yesterday when John McHugh announced that he had no retirement plans whatsoever: "I have never told anyone otherwise and I have never at any time told anyone I was thinking of retiring and, as the Washington Post put it, ‘wanting to go home...’ My campaign is going forward on those matters necessary to wage another successful effort and when the time comes, we will be ready." At least for the time being, NY-23 remains safely Republican.