Congressional diary: Republicans catch two breaks in House, but struggle in Senate

It is rare for there to be much news from Democratic-held House seats, as the GOP gave up on many of the districts it not so long ago was so intent on challenging. But it got two breaks this week in two races that the NRCC has long believed could be very competitive: NY-19 and TX-22.

In NY-19, Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate their candidate Andrew Saul as one of their best recruitment coups of the cycle until, that is, Saul unexpectedly dropped out of the race in mid-November. Followed 5 months of confusion in which the NRCC struggled to convince any Republican to take on Hall and all but gave up on its efforts, leading me to demote the seat to "potentially competitive," the lowest category, in my latest House rankings.

Now, the GOP has found a candidate: George Oros, the leader of the Westchester County Legislature. When declaring his candidacy yesterday, Oros was surrounded by former Governor Pataki and former Representative Kelly (who Hall defeated in 2006) -- exemplifying that the Republican establishment trusts him to get this race competitive again. New York's Republican Party is in a dire state, having lost 3 of seats in 2006 and having to defend many more this year. It is also on the brink of losing the state Senate, and is likely to spend much effort defending that bastion of theirs. Those factors, combined with how late Oros is jumping in the race, guarantee that the Democrat starts the race as favored -- but this development is definitely good news for the NRCC's last-ditch effort to expand the map to Democratic-held seats.

Meanwhile, TX-22 is a seat no one ever expected to be an easy hold for Democrats. The former seat of Tom DeLay was won by Nick Lampson in 2006 after an absurdist campaign in which DeLay messed up his retirement, preventing the GOP from replacing him on the ballot. Republicans settled on a write-in campaign on behalf of Shelley Sekula Gibbs but came short in what had become a quixotic quest.

TX-22 is in one of the most conservative districts of Texas, and it has always been obvious that it is among the Democrats' 2-3 most vulnerable seats this cycle. But some Republicans were worried that Sekula Gibbs had become too much of a liability after spending a controversial few months in Washington (she had won the special election to replace DeLay until January 07, though the Democrats had not fielded a candidate for the special); they were concerned that nominating her could doom their chances in a district they passionately believe belongs to them.

Last month, the first round of the primary showed Sekula Gibbs coming ahead of Pete Olson 28% to 24% in a crowded field; a runoff was organized this Tuesday between the two and Olson crushed Sekula Gibbs with stunning ease, 68% to 32%. Republicans are upbeat about Olson's strength; given the Republican nature of the district (Bush won with 64% in 2004) and the fact that the NRCC is sure to use here whatever ressources it saves up for offense, Lampson will have a very difficult surviving past November.

• Senate polls: GOP struggling in Alaska and New Mexico

Rasmussen released two polls from Senate races this morning from some of the year's most competitive races. Both of these seats are currently held by Republicans:

• In New Mexico's open seat, Democrat Udall is leading both Republicans, 54% to 40% against Steve Pearce and 56% to 36% against Heather Wilson. All three candidates are currently members of the House.

• In Alaska, meanwhile, it is a toss-up between entrenched Senator Stevens and his challenger Mark Begich who just recently jumped in the race in one of the DSCC's biggest recruitment coups. Rasmussen finds Stevens ahead 46% to 45% against Begich, obviously a dangerous place to be for any incumbent.
  

Stevens has become a very controversial figure due to the FBI investigation surrounding him and the state's entire Republican Party. Rasmussen finds Stevens' favorability rating to be standing at a dismal 50% (against 47%), including 47% from unaffiliated voters. Among Republicans, Stevens gets 71% of the vote. That he is able to hang on with such troubles and numbers points to (1) the overwhelmingly Republican nature of Alaska, where Democrats have been rebuffed in promising take-over efforts in both 2004 and 2006, and (2) Stevens' entrenchment (he is the longest serving Republican Senator).

The recruitement troubles of New York Republicans

It is still to early to know whether Eliot Spitzer's scandal and resignation can offer any boost to New York's dying Republican Party. On the verge of losing the state Senate and relinquishing control of the entirety of the state government since the 1930s, the state GOP collapse has major consequences at the federal level, since only 6 of the state's 29 representatives are now Republicans.

After picking up 3 seats in 2006 (NY-19, NY-20 and NY-24), Democrats are now looking to win in the three districts that they barely lost last time (between 2% to 4%): NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29. It is no coincidence that the incumbents from the first two districts have retired: Their situation looked difficult and they did not trust that the NRCC would do that much to help them. But with their departure, Democrats are in an even more favorable situation to pick up their seats.

To make matters worse, Republicans have some major recruitment trouble in those 2 districts. In NY-25, Peter Cappuccilli Jr., the only Republican to have stepped forward, dropped out on Tuesday, citing health reasons. This leaves the GOP with no candidate in the district, though they still have time to convince someone to jump in. Things are shaping up very well for Democrat Dan Maffei, and NY-25 will be one of the first districts the NRCC will give up in the fall when it will have to choose where to spend its meager resources. And that fact alone is surely enough to dissuade the strongest Republican candidates from jumping in.

In NY-26, the story is similar: a few days after the Republicans' top choice (state Senator Maziarz) announced he would not run, the GOPer most mentioned to take the nod, Assemblyman Jim Hayes, has declared he will stay out of the race. This is an open seat in a district that Bush carried comfortably in 2004, and instead of battling each other to become the nominee, the district's top Republicans are staying out. It says a lot about the pessimism of New York Republicans.

There is a Republican who has jumped in the NY-26 race, however: Iraq war veteran David Bellavia. The likely Democratic nominee right now is fellow Iraq war veteran Jonathan Powers, which would mean that the race finds itself disputed mainly on the war issue, not necessarily the best strategy for Republicans in upstate New York. It is also less likely that the NRCC abandons NY-26 than NY-25. The fundamentals of this district are more favorable to Republicans than those in NY-25, and it would really take a GOP plunge or major money woes for the House GOP to give up on a district that voted Bush with 55%.

And this is not the end of the House troubles of the state party: Their recruitment failures are as dramatic in some of the seats Democrats picked up in 2006. NY-19 is perhaps the most revealing example in the entire country, as Republicans had recruited one of their top and most highly touted recruits before he abruptly dropped out in late November. The GOP has since given up on contesting this race seriously, despite the fact that Rep. Hall was considered one of the weakest Democratic freshmen. In NY-24, one of the hotly contested open seat races of 2006 (you might remember the infamously absurd ad run against Democrat Arcuri), Republicans have only gotten businessman Richard Hanna to start exploring the race, and while Hanna could self-fund he will not be considered top-tier even if he does jump in.

One last recruitment note which has nothing to do with New York: The New Hampshire Republican Party is finding itself without a gubernatorial candidate after Manchester Mayor Guinta unexpectedly announced he would not take on Governor Lynch (who is up for reelection every two years). Republicans have other Republicans considering the race, but Lynch is a very popular governor who will have little trouble winning re-election, which leaves the GOP in a bind. From the Union Leader: "Influential state Republicans, surprised by Guinta's unexpected decision, are now searching for a candidate who can perhaps come within 10 or 12 percentage points of Lynch to bolster the ticket and, theoretically at least, prevent a 2006-style blowout."

Republicans quit congressional races, bringing mixed news for the GOP

Strange day of news in congressional races today, as it was marked by report after report that Republicans were not running for seats or were ending their campaigns. In two cases (NE-Sen, CA-04, though the latter is only a rumor), the news is good for Republicans; and in two (NJ-07 and NY-19) it is good for Democrats.

• Bruning exits the stage in Nebraska

Democrats thought they would have a great shot at the Nebraska Senate race when Hagel announced he would not run for re-election, and I ranked the seat 4th most vulnerable in the October Senate rankings. But everything has gone wrong for Democrats since then (the race was downgraded to 13th by November), and here is one more thing you can add to that list. Nebraska's Attorney General Jon Bruning was running in the GOP primary against former Governor Mike Johanns, and a bloody primary on the Republican side had become one of the last (faint) Democratic hopes of pulling an upset here.

But today, Bruning announced he was retiring from the race. Only 39, Bruning has plenty of time before him to upgrade (though there probably won't be an open Senate or governor's seat for a little while) and he was attracting ill-will of the party by making life difficult for the candidate the party wants to coronate. Johanns is now the certain Republican nominee, and can prepare for the general election... He will face only token opposition there, except if Democrats manage to convince their third choice, Steve Kleeb to run. And even then they face very low odds.

• Doolittle on his way out?

This is the one item on this list that is only a rumor as of yet, but one that is becoming persistent. A California blog is reporting that Doolittle might finally have decided to retire. CA-04 has become one of the GOP's worst nightmares. It is a very Republican seat that the party would have little problem holding as an open seat but Doolittle is so ethically challenged that he has practically no chance of winning a re-election race if he persists in running. The GOP wants to believe he will retire, but Doolittle has been very firm in saying he is going nowhere -- which has made CA-04 one of the only "Lean Takeover" seats in my House rankings. But if this rumor is confirmed the GOP would breath a huge sigh of relief.

• No more candidate in NY-19

Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate Andrew Saul one of its top recruitment coups next year. Saul was one of the challengers who had raised the most money as of the end of September, and his presumed strength had led many to classify Hall as very endangered in this Republican-leaning district.

But Saul was reported today to have dropped out of the race, leaving the GOP without a challenger in what they consider a top priority! Saul did not give a specific reason but to cite "personal reasons." This is obviously a huge blow to Republicans, who must now hurry to find a top-tier challenger to keep this competitive. And even if they do, they have lost the half-million Saul had already raised and will start off as a significant disadvantage. Hall just got a lot more safer tonight.

• No one wants to run in NJ-07

The seat Ferguson retired from yesterday is turning out to be yet another recruitment nightmare for Republicans. The two candidates I mentioned yesterday announced they were not running within 24 hours. First, Tom Kean, who many considered the strongest possible candidate (I had already reported this yesterday).

Today, former Rep. Tom Franks says he will not run for the seat. He was quickly followed by a third Republican I did not mention myself but who was on everyone's list, state Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick. Bramnick also declined to run, saying there was more a Republican can do in Trenton than in Washington right now.

This is the same scneario that played out in OH-15 and in IL-11, where Republicans just were not going any top-tier candidates in open seats they had to defend. They managed to find someone in OH-15, but not really in IL-11. NJ-07 is a very competitive district under normal circumstances, so the GOP has to do some great recruitment effort in the next few days or weeks to salvage the situation.

• At least one Republican says he is staying!

Rumors had been circulating that Rep. Tom Reynolds (from NY) might be retiring next year, which would create yet another headache for the GOP. Though his seat is not the tightest of districts, Republicans are already dealing with enough problems as it is. But Reynolds's camp said today that he has no intention to retire and he will run next year.