Polls: Dems get good presidential day, GOP enjoys good Senate news

One of the most surprising fixtures of this early campaign season has been the number of Massachusetts polls finding a surprisingly tight race between Barack Obama and John McCain. SUSA's latest poll had the Democrat leading by 5% -- and that was an improvement over previous dismal SUSA findings. Other polls Obama up by 12-13%, certainly a stronger showing, but these surveys also pointed to a surprising Obama weakness in the state by finding him performing much more weakly than Hillary Clinton. Now, however, we finally get a Massachusetts poll in which Obama performs as strongly (even stronger) than he needs to:

• Suffolk released its general election survey of the state, finding Obama leading 53% to 30%.
  

One or two more of those and we will be ready to move MA from "Likely Obama" to "Safe Obama." Of course, Massachusetts isn't the most interesting general election state but it has long been a puzzling one which is why I chose to lead with it. Other important state polls that are making news today are:

• In Wisconsin, the renowned Badger poll released a poll finding Obama leading 50% to 37% -- a very impressive margin in one of the tightest races of the past 2 elections.
  
• A key finding: The partisan breakdown has shifted 12% towards Democrats since 2004.

• In New Jersey, Quinnipiac found Obama leading but struggling to open a substantial margin. He is ahead 45% to 39%.

• In Iowa, the 2004 red state that looks the most susceptible of falling in the Democratic column, Rasmussen finds Obama increasing his lead to a 7% margin, up from 2% last month.
  
• He now enjoys the support of 77% of registered Democrats, versus 71% last month, though McCain has also increased his support among his base.

• In the important state of North Carolina, finally, Rasmussen shows a tight race with John McCain barely ahead 45% to 43%. This is actually only a 1% tightening, and the two were tied at 47% two polls ago, but North Carolina is rarely included in the list of top tier states and every poll that shows this tight a race is treated as surprising news.

• In Oklahoma, finally, Research 2000 released a poll showing McCain leading by only 14% in a state that Bush won by 32%.
  

Any sign of North Carolina being a true toss-up this November is indeed a nail in the coffin of John McCain, as it is difficult to imagine the Arizona Senator losing such a traditionally red state and somehow get an electoral college majority. An Obama upset in North Carolina would signal major difficulties for McCain in a number of other (former) Republican strongholds, starting with Virginia. Even ruby red Oklahoma is showing signs of tightening!

As for the other state, it is important to realize that as long as Obama keeps all of the Kerry states he can win a majority by simply pulling in three states that are already tinkering on the brink -- Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. Substitute the latter by Nevada and you have an electoral tie. That's why the recent surveys showing Obama posting huge leads in traditionally tight blue states like Wisconsin and Washington are very important, as they reduce the number of places in which the Illinois Senator will have to play defense.

Fortunately for Republicans, they got great Senate news today -- and unexpectedly so given the streak of terrible news that has fallen on the congressional GOP:

• In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by fourteen points following Hagan's 1% lead last month.

• In Oklahoma, a third-tier race that Dems have made some noise about, Sen. Inhofe leads state Senator Rice 53% to 31% in a Research 2000 poll.
  

The previous Rasmussen poll was taken right after Hagan's primary victory, and it seemed that the Democratic candidate then enjoyed a short-lived bounce. In fact, there were a number of polls showing a very tight contest between the two North Carolina women mid-May, so Rasmussen's toss-up poll should not be read as a stand-alone outlier. While the evolution is a bit more brutal than expected, the trend lines make sense as it will take more work for Democrats to get Dole truly in trouble. In any case, pulling this race out of the first-tier is essential for Republicans if they want to have a chance of limiting their losses in November. Note that the NC Senate poll is accompanied by a gubernatorial survey that finds the opposite trend:

• Democratic Lieutenant Governor Perdue now edges out Charlotte Mayor McCrory 47% to 46%. The Republican posted a 45% to 39% lead last month.

It was clear as soon as McCrory announced his candidacy that this race woud go down to the wire, and nothing that has happened ever since has disproved that.

Presidential polls: Tracking the bounce

The expectation that Obama would enjoy a bounce after Clinton's concession had been set for months, with the McCain campaign trying to increase the pressure by publicly stating that it expects Obama to surge ahead as he is declared the Democratic nominee. We do not yet have enough polling data to determine how high Obama will rise but can certainly start monitoring the polls. For now, today's national polls find mixed results.

The two tracking polls have found Obama gaining since last Tuesday, when he clinched his party's nod. Both Rasmussen and Gallup find him leading by 6 percent (50% to 44% for the former, 48% to 42% for the latter). This margin is the largest Obama has achieved in Gallup's tracking poll. While this is a very favorable sign for Obama, it is worth noting that Democrats expect to see more of a bounce as the level which Obama will achieve will be regarded as a sort of ceiling. As the campaign gets settled in general election mode in the coming days and as the reality of Clinton's withdrawal sets in, we will see whether Obama can open up more of lead.

At the state level, five polls were released today -- none showing surprising results though we have some interesting findings:

• In South Carolina, a Rasmussen poll shows McCain to be leading 48% to 39%.
  

• In Wisconsin, the race is very tight with Obama edging out McCain 45% to 43%. A month ago, McCain led 47% to 43%.
  
• Both candidates have a high favorable rating here, with McCain posting a particularly strong 60%. Obama is at 55%.

• In New Jersey, Obama leads 48% to 39%. Rasmussen found McCain slightly ahead 46% to 45% in late March so this is a net progression for Obama though it places him where we expect him to be.
• Here again, the candidates have high favorability rating: 60% for Obama (36% very favorable) and 59% for McCain (though only 18% very favorable).

• In Texas, McCain is ahead 52% to 39%. A month ago, he was only leading by 5%. As I will soon write about, the Senate race has also dramatically swung towards the GOP, implying that there is a sampling difference between the two surveys.
  
• 38% of Texas have a very unfavorable view of the Illinois Senator.
  

• Finally, a poll from Indiana shows that McCain starts ahead, 47% to 38%, in a state Bush won by 20%.
  

Of these five states, only Wisconsin is rated as a toss-up in my latest electoral college ratings, a status that is confirmed by this poll. Some Democrats believe Obama should be stronger than previous Democrats in one of his most crucial primary victories, but his strength with Midwestern independents should help him put Minnesota out of play before Wisconsin and we should expect that the latter stay competitive to the end.

As for the four others, they are all states that Obama and McCain want to believe they can make competitive: The Democratic advantage in New Jersey has been diminishing and, though the state has not been kind to Republicans, McCain's strength among independents could help him in the Garden State. As for South Carolina, it should be the last of the Southern states where Obama wants to increase black turnout to fall (after NC and GA). In Texas, it is possible that Obama will choose to spend some resources to force the race into single-digits and force McCain to spend a lot more than he would want to defending a must-win state for the GOP.

Wednesday polls: The battle for independents, and Kentucky is Clinton country

After 2 days filled with polls from Indiana and North Carolina, only one primary poll was released today. SUSA polled Kentucky for the third time, and confirms that this could be one of the biggest Clinton states:

• Clinton now leads Obama 63% to 27%. Two weeks ago, the margin was identical: 62% to 26%.
• Confirming that Obama's toughest region in the country is the Appalachians, he loses Eastern Kentucky 84% to 10%, implying there is a risk Obama might not be viable in at least one district.

If Hillary Clinton is still in the race after May 6th, it could mean two very rough weeks for Obama as results in West Virginia on the 13th and Kentucky on the 20th aren't likely to look very good for him. The demographics of these states will allow Clinton, if she lives up to the potential of this SUSA poll, to further her argument that Obama is too weak among white blue-collar voters to win the general election. Whether or not that hurts Obama among superdelegates, such conversation would continue to put him on the defensive.

National polls confirm that Clinton has found a second life since her Pennsylvania primary. Today's Gallup poll has Clinton edging out Obama 47% to 46% for the second day in a row; it had been quite a while Clinton had been on top two consecutive days. And Fox News's latest poll released today has Clinton leading 44% to 41%. These polls are obviously useless measures, since most states have already voted by now; but they still hint at the mood of the electorate and the two candidates' momentum.

Meanwhile, a series of general election surveys confirms how difficult it is to establish electability comparisons:

• Fox News finds Clinton edging out McCain nationally, 45% to 44%; Obama trails 46% to 43%. Among independents, a group Obama typically does better in, Clinton now performs better but McCain beats them both (by 4% against Clinton, by 10% against Obama).
• Interestingly, an Obama-Clinton ticket would beat a McCain-Romney ticket 47% to 41%, suggesting that Democrats would have an edge if they can present a united front.

• Update: A new New York Times poll was just released. It shows Obama leading Clinton 46% to 38% in the primary but it also shows Clinton running better in the general, leading McCain 48% to 43% while Obama and McCain are tied at 45%.
  

• A poll taken in AZ by Arizona State, meanwhile, finds McCain in single-digits against Obama, leading 47% to 38%. He leads against Clinton by a wider 53% to 37%.

• Finally, a somewhat surprising poll by Monmouth University from New Jersey finds McCain trounced by both candidates. He trails Obama 56% to 32% and Clinton 52% to 38%. The main difference between the two candidates is their strength among independents, as Clinton leads by 1% and Obama by 17%.

Most polls taken in New Jersey suggest a close race; the latest poll prior to this one has both Democrats ahead by 5% and McCain has been able to remain very competitive in Northeastern states. This poll thus looks to overstate the Democrats' advantage, but it still stands as a reminder of how tough the Garden State still is for Republicans; they seem to waste a lot of money only two years for very little rewards.

Meanwhile, the results in Arizona confirm that McCain starts clearly ahead and it would probably make little sense for Democrats to spend resources here; but I would not be surprised if the race ends up being more competitive here than the conventional wisdom suggests. You might remember that McCain did not even break 50% on February 5th, besting Romney by 12%; McCain seems to have some problems in his home state.

Thursday polls: In PA, Obama gains on Clinton but trails McCain

Pennsylvania polls have been coming in at a furious rhythm these past 3 days, with PPP releaseing the first poll showing Obama ahead just yesterday. While other polls show Clinton ahead (sometimes comfortably), all show the front-runner to win the state's April 22nd primary clearly declining. Today, two new polls confirm that the race has indeed tightened and is getting close to the tipping point:

• An Insider Advantage poll finds Clinton on "life support," clinging to a 45% to 43% lead. To make matters worse, Obama clearly underperforms in the black vote in this poll (he only gets 56%), and he is sure to get much higher on Election Day meaning that Clinton is heading to defeat and she does not get a larger share of the white vote (she is ahead 49% to 40%).

• A slightly bigger lead for Clinton in Strategic Vision's survey, but here again the trendline is favoring her opponent: She is leading Obama 49% to 41%, a respectable 8% edge that pales in comparison to the 18% lead she enjoyed last month.

The tightening of the Pennsylvania race does contain some possibility for the New York Senator, as it will make people (and Obama) pay much closer attention to the Keystone state and will thus maximize the momentum Clinton can get out of the primary if she can bounce back to the sort of number she was posting 10 days ago.

But besides that slightly comforting thought this is obviously disastrous news for Clinton. It forces her to pay attention to a state she thought was in the bag instead of two states (NC, IN) that are coming two weeks later and that are even more dangerous for her campaign. Remember, every Election Day from now until June 3rd could mean instant death for Hillary if she performs poorly. It also will not help her convince superdelegates that she still has a chance to win the nomination at a time Obama is quickly picking up support.

Research 2000, meanwhile, released a primary poll from Indiana:

• It shows Clinton ahead 49% to 46% against Obama.
• 22% of Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain over Obama in the general, and 16% of Obama supporters say the same if Clinton is the nominee.

This is only the second poll from Indiana that has been released since mid-February, and it follows SUSA's survey released earlier this week that showed Clinton up 9%. Given that no one had any idea who to favor in IN, it has to be a relief for Clinton to see that she is not trailing. To survive May 6th, however, she is going to have to improve these numbers and get a big Indiana victory, especially if the North Carolina polls hold and Obama carries that state comfortably.

Finally, two very interesting general election polls were released today from Pennsylvania and New Jersey:

• In Pennsylvania, Strategic Vision complemented its primary poll with a general election survey, finding Clinton leading McCain 47% to 41%; but the Republican leads Obama 47% to 42%.

• In New Jersey, meanwhile, Clinton and Obama have the same winning margin: 48% to 43% for Clinton, 47% to 42% for Obama.
  

One poll showing Clinton more electable, the other showing no difference... As usual, there is no consistency in the electability debate except if we look at the internals (as I explained yesterday in my analysis of the Quinnipiac surveys): Obama and Clinton's differences in subgroups generally holds across polls, and it does again in this New Jersey poll:

• Clinton, as usual, is polling better among registered Democrats (77% versus 70% for Obama).
  
• Obama, as usual, does better among independents (edging out McCain 38% to 37% while Clinton is crushed 48% to 23%) and registered Republicans (14% instead of 8%).
  

Monday polls: McCain edges Democrats in 5 out of 6 matchups in blue states

McCain continues his strong streak in Rasmussen's general election polls. He led all four match-ups yesterday in Virginia and Wisconsin. Today, Rasmussen released 3 new general election polls, all from relatively reliable blue states -- and McCain leads in 5 out of 6 of the match-ups.

• In Washington state, always competitive but clearly leaning Democratic, McCain stays very competitive against Obama (he trails 48% to 43%) and leads against Hillary: 46% to 43%.

• In Michigan, also a tight state which Democrats have come to depend on, McCain looks well positioned to score a major pick-up. McCain edges out Obama 43% to 42% and Clinton 45% to 42%. While both match-ups are toss-ups, even that much is dangerous for Democrats in a state they absolutely need. And these numbers are confirmed by other states which also show McCain competitive.
• The favorability ratings also put the Republican on top: McCain is at 55%, Obama at 50% and Clinton at 47%.

• In New Jersey, finally, McCain also edges out both Obama (46% to 45%) and Clinton 45% to 42%. That's a stunning turn-around from last month's Rasmussen numbers, in which Clinton led 50% to 39%; Obama already trailed 45% to 43%.
• The favorability numbers in this blue state are also noteworthy: McCain is at 61%, Obama at 58% (a 6% improvement) and Clinton at 50% (a 6% drop).

It goes without saying that McCain's strength in all three of these states should greatly worry Democrats. It is hard to imagine an electoral map for either Clinton or Obama that does not incorporate New Jersey, Michigan and Washington. While it is certainly mathematically possible to get to 270 without them, this group of state would not be the first to go and would signal that Democrats are too busy defending states that should be reliably blue to be looking into picking up Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida.

As I pointed out yesterday, Rasmussen's polls tend to favor McCain more than other surveys, but that is not reason enough for McCain's chances to be dismissed in these states. The whole point of his general election strength is that his appeal to independents could endanger states like New Jersey and Michigan that have tended to vote Democratic in recent cycles but that have always flirted with the Republican nominee. Add to that the problem of the Michigan delegates and the ill-will that could create in the state against the Democratic nominee.

It's early in the game, but we have enough indications that much more states than we expected could be in play in 2008 with both sides putting in play states that weren't considered that competitive in 2004.

Meanwhile, ARG released its first North Carolina primary poll of the year:

• Obama is leading 51% to 38%. That includes a 78% to 17% lead among black voters, while he trails Clinton among whites 49% to 37%.

Obama seems to have taken back a double-digit lead in North Carolina poll, with this survey actually on the lower-end of the 3 polls we have seen from the state over the past 2 weeks (PPP and Insider Advantage being the two others). As I have explained elsewhere, a large Obama win in North Carolina could be as hurtful to Clinton than if she loses Indiana.

Update: PPP released its new North Carolina poll and shows Obama up 54% to 36% -- pretty much where it was last week when Obama was leading by 18%. He gets 36% of the white vote and 81% of the black vote.

In last day of campaigning, Clinton appears to have stopped the bleeding

Polls in Ohio and Texas will open in less than 24 hours in Ohio and Texas (and Rhode Island and Vermont, not that anyone really cares at this point) and after showing a steady movement away from Hillary Clinton over the past two weeks, the latest surveys suggest that Clinton might have stopped the bleeding and perhaps even regained some of the lost ground.

Naturally, not all polls agree -- and whatever bump some of them are registering is very slight, and in no way guarantees that Clinton will have a good day tomorrow. The point here isn't that Clinton is strengthening her position but that her downward spiral in polls might have stopped, at least in Ohio.

• First, Rasmussen: In Ohio, it shows Clinton up 50% to 44%, an uptick from the previous poll which had her up by 2% only.
• Similarly in Texas, Obama now has a 1% edge (48% to 47%) but he was up 4% in the previous poll -- and he was gaining ground in every poll.


• Public Policy Polling shows similar improvement for Clinton: In Texas, Clinton is now leading 50% to 44% -- up from a 48% tie in the previous poll. She does so by remaining very strong among Hispanics (67%) and regaining strength among white voters (58%).
• In Ohio, PPP shows Clinton up 51% to 42% -- a marked improvement from her previous 50-46 lead.


• The University of Cincinnati survey shows the same margin in Ohio, with Clinton up 51% to 42%.


• Next comes SUSA's Ohio poll, which has Clinton leading 54% to 44%, fueled by a 27% lead among women. Clinton is ahead among those who have already voted by 13%. The trendline of the SUSA poll is very interesting: Clinton had a 17% lead, then a 9% lead, then a 6% lead -- and has now reverse this decline.
• In Texas, SUSA shows Obama up 1 point 49% to 48% -- but just as in Rasmussen's, it is Clinton that has slightly improved, up from a 4% deficit last week. SUSA estimates that half of the electorate has voted early, and puts Clinton up 2% among early voters. She is leading the Hispanic vote with 64%.
  


• Quinnipiac shows Clinton up 49% to 45% in Ohio, which is a sharp decline from her 11% lead last week (she was leading by 21% two weeks ago). But the poll was in the field starting on Wednesday, so it is unlikely to register any Clinton stabilization over the past few days. She is enjoying a 32% point gender gap, and is up 32% among white women.


• Worth noting that the ARG polls that I reported yesterday also had good movement for Clinton, who progressed by 2% in Ohio and 7% in Texas.


• That leaves us with Zogby, which shows Obama strengthening his positions! He is ahead 47% to 44% in Texas, and Zogby tells us to look at East Texas tomorrow.
• In Ohio, Zogby shows Obama taking the lead for the first time, 47% to 45%. I believe this might be the first survey by any polling group to show Obama ahead.

If Clinton confirms tomorrow that she has stabilized herself and manages to win comfortably in Ohio and get a victory in Texas, Obama will have lost a huge opportunity to put an end to the Democratic contest. He would still remain the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination given how difficult the math of a Clinton comeback looks, but the next context in which Obama would have an opportunity to get Clinton out of the race is... Pennsylvania, on April 22nd. And let's not forget that he might be in for expensive and grueling races in Florida and Michigan if the DNC agrees to do-overs.

One last poll on this Monday morning, as Rasmussen released a survey for New Jersey's general election:

• Obama loses against McCain, 45% to 43%, while Hillary crushes him 50% to 39%.

This gets us back to the old pattern of Clinton doing significantly better than her rival in the Northeast, with McCain waging strong contests in these must-win states for Democrats. She also used to poll much better in Southern states but Obama put an end to that pattern in the past few weeks.

Update: Here's one more poll bringing good news to Clinton, as she is up 52% to 40% in the Suffolk poll from Ohio.

More polls, with a bunch of general election numbers

First, news came today that Obama has won his eleventh contest in a row, that of the Democrats Abroad, 66% to 33%. Obama narrowly won Mexico and Clinton narrowly won Israel; Western Europe went big for Obama. That gives Obama 2.5 delegates to Clinton's 2 (there were 9 delegates at stake, and they split 5-4, but each only has half-a-vote at the convention, thereby complicating matters with half delegates).

Meanwhile, ABC/Washington Post just came out with two polls from Ohio and Texas, confirming that the trendlines are not favoring Clinton at all and that Obama has a good chance of taking one -- if not both -- of these states, likely putting an end then to the Democratic contest. The fact that Texas in particular is so close (as it is in three polls released earlier this afternoon that I blogged about here) makes tonight's and next week's debates that much more important:

• In Texas, Clinton edges out Obama 48% to 47%. No internals are provided, but the WaPo does specify that Latinos are powering Clinton through here.
• In Ohio, Clinton stays more comfortably ahead, 50% to 43%.

These numbers speak for themselves, and my last post already delves into the primary and the dynamics in the run-up to March 4th; so I am going to jump straight to the latest general election numbers, for we have a few from different pollsters:

• Firs, a poll from New York. SUSA shows Clinton leading McCain by 11%, 52% to 41%; but it is Obama who fares best -- 57% to 36%. Most Northeast polls have usually shown Obama weaker than Clinton, and it is obviously a surprise to see the New York Senator being outperformed in her home state.
  


• In Pennsylvania, things are too close for comfort for both Democrats in a must-win state. That same Franklin & Marshall College survey that showed Clinton ahead of Obama in the primary this morning also released general election numbers: Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%, and McCain is edging out Obama 44% to 43%.

• SUSA also released a poll from Kansas that shows the state semi-competitive if Obama is the candidate, as he trails McCain 50% to 44%. Clinton is trounced, 59% to 35%. In SUSA's January Kansas poll, Clinton trailed by 13% and Obama by 14% -- so the two are stuck in very divergent trendlines.

• Next we have two polls from Rasmussen, the first of which comes from Virginia, where McCain holds off both Clinton (51% to 41%) and Obama (49% to 44%). SUSA's Virginia poll the other day had Obama slightly ahead.

• In Iowa, meanwhile, Obama is barely ahead, 44% to 41%, while Hillary is far behind, 47% to 37%.
  

• Finally, the Quinnipiac poll from New Jersey has both Democrats leading McCain in single-digits, 47% to 41% for Hillary, 46% to 39% for Obama.

This New Jersey poll is a perfect summary of the strength of the two candidates and what they each bring to a match-up against McCain. Clinton does better among Democrats (80-10, versus 72-15 for Obama); Obama does better among independents (leading 47-38, while Clinton trails 44-43) and African-Americans (87-6 versus 75-13 for Clinton).

Both candidates would have to work really hard to complete this coalition and to win the race, and their weakest points have interestingly enough been groups among which they are also weak in the primary, so this is not just a small problem they can expect to get resolved in a few days.

Also worth noting is how clearly Obama has gone up in the past month and Clinton has gone down, for example in the Kansas poll that has Obama gaining 7% and Clinton went down 14%. The same trend is obvious in many surveys and in national trackings like Rasmussen's daily numbers.

Presidential polls coming in from all directions

I have been posting more slowly than usual the past 24 hours, and as a result I am left with a deluge of great polls that I have not yet talked about. So here's my best comprehensive attempt to list this morning's polls -- and there are a lot to list since many institutes decided to just deliver lots of state numbers today.

• Gallup's national numbers

I had already posted the Republican primary numbers yesterday to indicate Huckabee's stalling. Gallup also came out with general election numbers and a survey from the Democratic primary nationally:

• Among Democrats, Clinton comes in at 45% followed by Obama at 27%and Edwards at 15%. This is an improvement for Hillary who stood at 39% two weeks ago.


• In the general election, Clinton and Obama win all 6 match-ups. But Barack is much stronger than Hillary.
• Against Giuliani, Clinton wins 49-48 and Obama 51-45. Against Huckabee, it's 53-44 Clinton and 53-42 Obama. And against Romney, it's 52-46 Clinton only, and 57-39 Obama.

I don't much faith in the electability difference here, as we could point to many polls that have the reverse effect nationally (though, as I have explained before, there is more consistency in finding Obama stronger in the West and Clinton in the South). The bottom line is that Democrats are starting ahead in this election, but cleraly not by huge margins.

• Rasmussen's flurry of state polls: OH, MO and NJ

Rasmussen came out with a few great presidential polls this morning:

• In Ohio, Republicans have leads but it's all within the margin of error.Giuliani is ahead of Clinton 44% to 42% and of Obama 43% to 40%. Clinton and Romney are tiedat 43%.
• But it's Huckabee who runs best: 44% to 40% against Hillary, and 45% to 39% against Obama.


• In Missouri, Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 45% to 39%, and Obama leads by 1%. But both Democrats lose against Huckabee, 45% to 43% for Clinton and 45% to 41% for Hillary.
• The explanation: Giuliani's favorability rating is the lowest of the four candidates, at 45%, under Clinton and Obama who are at 52 and 51%. What is happening to Rudy Giuliani in the heartland?


• Finally in New Jersey, Clinton is strong but Obama has difficulty putting Giuliani away: Clinton leads Rudy 50% to 37%, but Obama is statistically tied 42% to 41%. This is coherent with many other polls we have seen that Rudy would make the Tri-State area competitive if the Democratic candidate is not Clinton.
• Both candidates comfortably lead Huckabee: 49% to 30% for Obama and 51% to 34% for Clinton.

None of these numbers are very shocking: Missouri and Ohio are close, and New Jersey clearly leans Democratic. Missouri's slight Democratic lean in most polls taken this fall is probably the biggest surprise, as the GOP was boasting of having put the state away in past cycles -- clearly that is not the case, and Democrats have a great chance of winning the state. After all, they certainly have electoral college scenarios in which they get to a majority with Missouri and without Ohio.

• PPP: North Carolina is competitive

Public Policy Polling came out with a general election and a Senate poll out of North Carolina today:

• In the presidential race, John Edwards is the only Democrat tobeat Republicans in his home state: He beats Giuliani 48% to 43%, Huckabee 50% to 43%, and demolishes Romney 52% to 40%./li>/li>
• Giuliani leads Clinton 46% to 39% and Obama 46% to 43%. Huckabee leads Clinton 46% to 42% and Obama 47% to 42%. And Romney leads Clinton 46-42 and Obama 45-42%.

In the presidential race, Clinton had come in stronger in a previous North Carolina poll, but the Democrats are clearly running stronger in the South than they were 4 years ago. Edwards did not do much for Kerry in 2004, so it's interesting that polls are finding him this much stronger today.

• SUSA delivers too: IA and MN

SUSA also came out with two state polls from Iowa and from Minnesota:

• In Iowa, Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 42%, Romney 48% to 45%. She's only up 46-45 against Huck and behind 46-45 against McCain.
• Obama runs much much better than Clinton: 55% to 36% against Rudy, 51-39 against Romney, 52-39 against Huck, and 51-39 against McCain.


• In Minnesota, it's Clinton who runs much much better: She demolishes Giuliani 53-40, Romney 58-36, Huck 53-41. Her lead is within single-digits only against McCain, but still far ahead 51% to 43%.
• Obama, on the other hand, trails Giuliani 48% to 44% and McCain 50% to 41%. He is timidly ahead of Romney 48% to 42% and Huck 47% to 42%.

This is the second month in a row that SUSA shows Obama miles ahead of Clinton in Iowa -- which could be significant given that it is the state in which Obama is the best known at this point after months of caucus campaigning. But by that token, Iowa has always been the state where Clinton has had the most difficulty in the primary campaign, which could also account for her weakness in the general election.

And don't forget that IA went red by a point or two in 04 and MN went blue by a small margin; but both states have long histories of being Democratic. So it looks like 2008 could see them both return solidly to the blue column -- though depending on the candidates the GOP can hope to make them competitive.

Presidential polls: Romney strong in NH, and Giuliani slips in one of his "momentum-proof" states

First, a quick notes on the Des Moines Register debates: I was not able to watch the GOP debate yesterday since I was busy at that time (can someone explain why these debates are being held at 1pm?), but will try to watch and comment on the Democrats' today. For those who are still looking for some analysis of yesterday's fireworks, well, there apparently were no fireworks, and most commentators hold Huckabee and Romney to have helped themselves tremendously. Here's one recap. And now, on to the polls!

• Romney in New Hampshire

I am not sure why we are seeing this deluge of New Hampshire polls in the past 24 hours, though I guess it's better than getting a ton of Florida primary polls like we sometimes do. In any case, the latest Rasmussen poll from New Hampshire has Romney running very strong.

• Romney gets 33%, with John McCain second at 18% and Rudy Giuliani at 15%. Mike Huckabee is at 14%, Ron Paul at 8%, followed by Tancredo at 3% and Fred Thompson is now seventhat 2%!

These numbers are very consistent with the CNN and Suffolk numbers released yesterday, and all three polls show the same basic picture: Romney is still very strong, and McCain is starting to come in in front of Giuliani. Huckabee is stronger in Rasmussen than in the other two polls, but it is clear that his surge is not taking the proportions it is taking in other states -- which is really not a surprise considering the different make-up of NH.

Would an Iowa loss make Romney tank a bit? Perhaps. But it would not help McCain or Giuliani who will surely get much worse than Romney in Iowa. If these two want to help themselves, they will have to do so all by themselves without relying on the caucuses, something they have not been able to do for now. The question now seems to be: Can Romney stop Huckabee even with a NH win? Or would Huckabee just sweep to victory in SC and onward? The clue to an answer seems to be Michigan, which could really witness a bataille royale between the two candidates.

• Quinnipiac shows New Jersey tight

Quinnippiac got a new New Jersey poll out today, and it shows Giuliani would keep the state very competitive in a general election. Not that it is a new finding since many poll have shown he would be in a great position to pick up these 15 EVs, but it's certainly part of Giuliani's electability argument:

• Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant 45% to 44% lead, which is actually the first time Clinton has held any sort of lead. She was led by as much as 9% back in April, before making it a toss-up.
• But in the GOP primary, Giuliani slips from 48% to 38%, though he stays far in front of second-place McCain's 12%.
• Among Democrats, Clinton's up 51% to 17%.

The Republican numbers I find fascinating: Remember Giuliani's delegate strategy? It is based on the premise that no matter what happens in January he will win New York, New Jersey and Connecticut on February 5th because they are in his backyard, and that this will give him a delegate lead since these 3 states are all winner-take-all and would give him about 200 delegates. The Giuliani camp calls these states momentum-proof.

A state in which he leads with 38% is anything but momentum-proof. Giuliani had a bad month, and he slid by 10%. Giuliani might win New Jersey, but it is now clear that he will only do so if he remains relevant in January, and GOP voters will have no problem tossing him over board. (This is not necessarily true in New York, but how far can Rudy go with a home-state win only?) I did use to think that Giuliani was right in saying these states were momentum-proof but that was in the case that Giuliani lost early-states but still remained relevant. Now, if the race devolves into a Huckabee-Romney showdown by the end of January, I'm not sure if anyone will pay attention to Rudy anymore. Bottom line: Giuliani needs to make something happen in January. And where else but in New Hampshire.

Afternoon polls: Democrats strong in Alaska and in the Tri-State area

• GOP in trouble in Alaska
  

Research 2000 just released a poll commissioned by Daily Kos, and it has some awful news for Alaska Republicans:

• In the at-large House race, incumbent GOP Rep. Don Young trails Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 49% to 42%.
• In the Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Begich leads incumbent GOPer Ted Stevens 47% to 41%.

Alaska Republicans have been facing massive corruption investigations that has already endangered many state-level politicians. Don Young and Ted Stevens are both involved and under investigation as well, and fresh details and allegations are regularly exposed in the media. That is bad for any incumbent, even for someone like Stevens who has been serving in the Senate for decade (he is the longest-serving Republican). The investigation has been picking up in recent months, with executives acknowledging that their employees had worked on renovations of Stevens's house that was raided earlier in the summer by the FBI.

In House race, Berkowitz is officially in the race -- and this is the third poll out of three that has him leading (though I believe it is the first non-internal survey). In the Senate race, Begich is not yet a candidate, but there are indications he is looking to get in: It appears that Begich will not officially declare a run before the spring, but that he will announce he is not running by the end of 2007 to let someone else go for it if he does not want to. So we will essentially know what the situation is in the coming three weeks -- though Stevens retiring could slightly improve GOP chances still. I have rated the seat "Lean retention" and ranked it 9th for now in my latest Senate rankings.

• Rasmussen polls the Tri-State region
  

Rasmussen released two new polls over the week-end from New Jersey and Connecticut pitting a three way race involving Mike Bloomberg. Their conclusion: Bloomberg is firmly in double-digits, and his strength depends on who the candidates of both parties are.

• In New Jersey, Clinton gets 46% to Giuliani's 38% and Bloomberg's 12%. But if the candidates are Obama and Huckabee, it's 42% to 27% for the Democrat, with Bloomberg at 18%.
• In Connecticut, Clinton gets 45% to 36% for Giuliani and 12% for Bloomberg. It's 40-29-18 if Obama and Huckabee are tested.

The numbers are not really comparable since Bloomberg surely benefits from Huckabee's much lower name recognition in the second set of numbers, as well as from the fact that the Tri-state area is basically home territory for Clinton and Giuliani. But Bloomberg definitely has the potential and room to grow. This also confirms that Giuliani would make the coastal states more competitive than they have been in recent cycles but that Clinton would still have the clear upper-hand, something that is confirmed by most other polls.