Tuesday polls: Stunning toss-up in Indiana, as Obama leads in MI and CO's Udall continues to inch ahead (Updated with new LA Times poll!)

Update: Well, well, well, that Newsweek poll has company! A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll finds a 12% lead for Obama, 49% to 37%. In a four-way race including Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, Obama is ahead 48% to 33%. The key, once again, is the poll's partisan breakdown: 39% of voters identify themselves as Democrats versus only 22% as Republicans. That is simply too big a difference for McCain to hope to survive.

Original post: After yesterday's wave of good poll news for Obama that showed the Democrat gaining in swing states like New Hampshire and in traditionally red state like Alaska, today's shocker comes in the form of a SUSA poll from Indiana -- not the first state you think of when you wonder where the next exciting presidential poll will come from:

• In a state in which George Bush crushed Al Gore and John Kerry, SUSA finds a toss-up race, with Obama edging out McCain 48% to 47%.
  
• No surprise as to the reason: There is a 16% swing from the partisan breakdown of 2004. That year, 46% of voters were Republicans and 32% were Democrats. In this poll, 38% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats and 36% as Republicans.

It is increasingly evident how big an obstacle to McCain's election this shift in partisan breakdown, about which I have written numerous times before, has become. It is what explains Obama's 15% lead i a recent Newsweek poll, and what also accounts for Obama's gains in a number of red states like Indiana. Keep in mind that the Illinois Senator has chosen to run his first ad of the general election in this state which should not be dismissed: While it doesn't cost him that much to run ads in similarly red Montana and Nebraska, Indiana does have an expensive media market (Indianapolis) and the Obama campaign has to be at least somewhat confident that they can tighten the race here and force McCain to play defense.

The day's second good news for Obama comes from Michigan:

• PPP finds Obama to be ahead 47% to 38%, with 78% of Democrats supporting him versus 74% of Republicans supporting McCain.
  

This will not come as a surprise to regular readers of this blog who know that I tend to view Michigan as more dangerous for Obama than Pennsylvania, but this is the biggest lead Obama has ever posted in a Michigan poll. The state is likely to remain competitive to the end, just as it did in the past two elections, but it would be a huge boost to Obama if the state at least comes back to its Democratic leanings. We will have to wait for confirmation from other polls to see whether PPP marks Michigan's return to its more traditional role of a lean-blue state or whether it overstates Obama's support.

The third and last presidential poll of the day comes from New Mexico:

• Obama narrowly leads McCain 49% to 46% in the latest SUSA poll, based on a 54% gender gap and the support of 63% of Hispanics. The two were tied at 44% last month.

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll of the race found an 8% lead for Obama, in what is one of two Gore states to have switched over to Bush in 2004. Polls here remain tight, though Democrats are hoping that claiming an early edge New Mexico and Iowa will put them within striking distance of the White House (6 evs) before contesting more difficult red states. The fact remains that while Obama is putting states like Indiana and Alaska in play he has not been able to open a consistent and clear lead in states that ought to swing to his side more easily if he has a national advantage. And that's what keeps this race so suspenseful.

Finally, four down-the-ballot polls:

• In Colorado's senatorial race, Democrat Tom Udall has opened a 9% lead (46-37) against Republican Bob Schaffer according to an internal poll released by the DSCC.
  

• In Indiana's gubernatorial race, Gov. Daniels leads Democratic challenger Long Thompson 50% to 45% (in the SUSA poll).
  

• In Nebraska's senatorial race, former Gov. Mike Johanns crushes Scott kleeb 60% to 33% in Rasmussen's latest poll. He ld 55% to 40% last month. Johanns's favorability rating stands at 63%, versus 50% for Kleeb.
  

• Finally, PPP accompanied its presidential poll with the uninteresting finding that Carl Levin is leading 54% to 32% in his uninteresting match-up against Republican Jack Hoogendyck.

Long Thompson was unexplicably trailing big in the last 2 polls of the race, though this survey is a return to what we have seen most of the year: Mitch Daniels is a vulnerable incumbent though he has somewhat recovered in the past year, making this race unpredictable. As for the Nebraska race, it remains the Democrat's big disappointment of the year as Bob Kerrey's running would have made this one of the hottest pick-up opportunities of the year rather than a blowout which Kleeb has little chance of tightening. In fact, the Democrat himself probably views this as a resume-boosting name ID-enhancing run.

As for the Colorado poll, it is an internal survey but this is the second poll after Rasmussen's that shows Udall extending his lead a bit. Democrats have long been hoping that Udall will repeat the gubernatorial scenario of Gov. Ritter in 2006, when the Democrat unexpectedly opened a huge lead in what was expected to be a close open seat race and he never looked back. The environment is still as bad for the GOP and the state has only trended more blue in the past two years but Udall has been unable to inch ahead of Schaffer. If these latest polls are confirmed, however, it will be a very positive development for Democrats.

Week-end polls: In case anyone had illusions about Clinton's June 3rd chances

The first poll of the Montana primary -- not a contest that was expected to ever be surveyed -- suggests that June 3rd should not allow Hillary Clinton to close the primary season on a high note. Mason-Dixon shows Barack Obama leading 52% to 35%, and there is every reason to believe that Clinton's road is as tough in South Dakota.

Naturally, these two primaries award very few delegates (31 combined, versus 55 in Puerto Rico two days earlier). But since Clinton's goal seems to be to find an argument to stay in the race as long as possible, there is no doubt that two harsh defeats on the last Election Night will not bode well for her campaign's rationale in the days following June 3rd, days in which the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are expected to pick their side at an increasing speed. DemCon Watch details this week's updates, and finds that Obama picked up 3 supers to Clinton's one (all were add-on, and Clinton's surprisingly came from Georgia).

Meanwhile, a list of general election polls were released today:

• First, Gallup's national tracking poll is noteworthy for it shows one of the largest differentials between Clinton and Obama's performance that it has recorded since the tracking started a while ago. Today, Obama trails 49% to 44% while Clinton leads 47% to 45%.

• Meanwhile, Mason-Dixon's Montana poll shows possibly tight races, though McCain is predictably starting ahead. He leads Clinton 50% to 39% and Obama 47% to 39%. Bush won 59% to 39% four years ago.

• In neighboring Nebraska, however, Research 2000 crushes Democratic hopes of picking up a few electoral votes with Obama's candidacy. McCain trounces Obama 57% to 29% (leading by wide margins in all congressional districts) and leads Clinton 58% to 28%. A Rasmussen poll and a SUSA poll released in the past few months showed much tighter results.

• Meanwhile, in California, an LA Times poll should send shills down Democrats' spine, as McCain is very close to both Democrats: 47% to 40% against Obama, 43% to 40% against Clinton. Two polls released Friday showed both Dems up double-digits.

• Finally, a North Carolina poll by Civitas has a tight race between McCain and Obama, with the Republican leading 44% to 39%.
  

The California numbers are significant, for if a series of polls in the next few weeks show the potential of a single-digit race, the Democratic nominee will be forced to spend resources to defend this large state with expensive media markets even if the GOP campaign does not attempt anything. Democrats can take no risk in California, as the loss of its 55 electoral votes would leave no road to the White House.

The Western states are also interesting, for it is a central part of Obama's argument of a different electoral map that states that have traditionally not been receptive to Democrats -- places like North Dakota, some congressional districts in Nebraska, Montana -- could warm up to him. Polls are telling a conflicting picture about this, as Obama has polled very strongly in some polls (in Alaska, Nebraska) but more poorly in some. All these states have very few electoral votes, so the loss/gain of one would not necessarily determine the election (though it could, as Al Gore learned in 2000).

In one last polling note, Research 2000 also conducted a survey of the Nebraska Senate race and found Mike Johanns leading Scott Kleeb by a wide 58% to 31%. A Rasmussen poll released last week found Johanns ahead 55% to 40%, a more promising picture for the Democrats. But this merely confirms what we already know: What was a very promising race at some point in the fall is now among the most difficult for Democrats, as Johanns is a very popular and well-known politician of a very Republican state. This is a rare congressional open seat in which the GOP looks to have saved itself through recruiting.

Sunday polls: A tough road ahead for Scott Kleeb

Once upon a time, Nebraska was among the most vulnerable Republican seats, ranked fourth on my October rankings. But that was before former Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey and Omaha mayor Mike Fahey announced they would not run for the seat left open by Chuck Hagel. Instead, in their primary last week Nebraska Democrats settled on Scott Kleeb, a young candidate who is very popular with the grassroots and the netroots. Republicans convinced their first choice, former Governor Mike Johanns, to jump in the race, setting up an unbalanced fight in which Republicans are heavily favored to prevail.

This is confirmed by a new Rasmussen poll that shows Johanns clearly ahead, Kleeb could give Republicans headaches if he really does everything right in the next few months:

• In the first poll from Nebraska's Senate race, Johanns leads Kleeb 55% to 40%.
• Johanns has a strong approval rating -- 65% (including 27% very favorable versus 56% for Kleeb (17% very favorable).

This does not warrant calling the race competitive, and Democrats have many opportunities that rank much higher, but I suspect the DCCC will at least push Johanns a little. When is the next time they will have a shot at this seat, after all? Kleeb's coming in at 40% is a strong enough showing to be built upon. After all, Kerry only got 33% in Nebraska in 2004. Rasmussen also polled the presidential race and found Obama surpassing Kerry's total as well:

• John McCain leads Obama 50% to 39%. Clinton trails by a larger 57% to 34%.
• McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of voters, Obama by 49% -- suggesting that he would have trouble getting that much closer to the Republican.

Nebraska is one of two states that awards its electoral votes by congressional districts. The second congressional district could potentially fall in the Democratic column if Obama holds his statewide margin around 11%. In 2004, Bush's winning margin in the second district was 11% smaller than his statewide lead.

Finally, the Minnesota Star Tribune released a new poll of the MN presidential race, bringing great news to Democrats in a state the GOP believes it can contest:

• Obama leads against McCain 51% to 38%. Clinton is ahead 49% to 40%.

Note that the two events Minnesota Republicans are counting on to wrestle this state away from the Democratic column -- McCain picking Governor Pawlenty as VP and the GOP convention in the Twin Cities -- will not impact the race for many more months. Until now, both sides have reason to believe in their chances in this state: MN has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1972 but the state has becoming increasingly purple in the past few cycles, with Kerry and Gore posting two narrow victories.

Mississippi and Nebraska Dems aim red state Senate seats

In what has been the most unpredictable Senate race of the 2008 cycle, the Mississippi seat left open by Trent Lott's stunning December resignation has just had one more development. Former Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows announced yesterday that he was dropping out of the race, endorsing fellow candidate Ronnie Musgrove, the state's former Governor.

Hurt by the state Supreme Court's decision to side with Gov. Barbour and allow the special election to be held as late as November, Democrats had lost some of their confidence in their ability to pick up this seat. The recently appointed incumbent, Sen. Wicker, now has many months to build up an incumbency advantage and raise money in D.C., giving him an advantage he would not have had if the election was held in March as it was supposed to for a while.

But Shows's withdrawal from the race gives them some cause for relief, and serves as a reminder that Democrats are determined to make this race competitive. The Mississippi race is a special election, which means that it does not have a primary but a runoff-system: All candidates from any party will be on the same ballot and the top two will go to a runoff if no one gets 50%. In other words, the division of the Democratic vote between Musgrove and Snows would have made it very impossible for a Democrat to win on November 4th and would have allowed Wicker to coast to 50% by making Musgrove and Shows take aim at each other (this is what happened in the Lousiana 2004 Senate race, for example).

With Shows out, the race is a one-on-one contest with no obvious favorite. While Wicker should be given an edge as the Republican incumbent in a very red state and in a presidential year, two polls taken earlier this year show that Musgrove will be very competitive (one of the survey has him ahead) and will now be able to fully campaign against the incumbent instead of worrying about Shows. This is not at the top of Democratic chances, but the DSCC is committed to expanding the map and they have plenty of money to spend, so expect the party to make a major play here.

Meanwhile, Nebraska Democrats finally got a candidate in their state's open seat. Once upon a time this race looked to be one of the DSCC's best pick-up opportunity, but that was before former Senator Bob Kerrey and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey announced they would not run. After that, most of the speculation concentrated on Scott Kleeb, the Democratic candidate in NE-03 in 2006. NE-03 is the sixth most Republican district in the country, but Kleeb got a stunning 45% of the vote after running a surprisingly competitive campaign.

Now, Kleeb looks ready to announce his candidacy for the Senate. But this time he is running a statewide campaign against a very popular Republican, former Governor Johanns, who starts off the race very heavily favored.

Republicans quit congressional races, bringing mixed news for the GOP

Strange day of news in congressional races today, as it was marked by report after report that Republicans were not running for seats or were ending their campaigns. In two cases (NE-Sen, CA-04, though the latter is only a rumor), the news is good for Republicans; and in two (NJ-07 and NY-19) it is good for Democrats.

• Bruning exits the stage in Nebraska

Democrats thought they would have a great shot at the Nebraska Senate race when Hagel announced he would not run for re-election, and I ranked the seat 4th most vulnerable in the October Senate rankings. But everything has gone wrong for Democrats since then (the race was downgraded to 13th by November), and here is one more thing you can add to that list. Nebraska's Attorney General Jon Bruning was running in the GOP primary against former Governor Mike Johanns, and a bloody primary on the Republican side had become one of the last (faint) Democratic hopes of pulling an upset here.

But today, Bruning announced he was retiring from the race. Only 39, Bruning has plenty of time before him to upgrade (though there probably won't be an open Senate or governor's seat for a little while) and he was attracting ill-will of the party by making life difficult for the candidate the party wants to coronate. Johanns is now the certain Republican nominee, and can prepare for the general election... He will face only token opposition there, except if Democrats manage to convince their third choice, Steve Kleeb to run. And even then they face very low odds.

• Doolittle on his way out?

This is the one item on this list that is only a rumor as of yet, but one that is becoming persistent. A California blog is reporting that Doolittle might finally have decided to retire. CA-04 has become one of the GOP's worst nightmares. It is a very Republican seat that the party would have little problem holding as an open seat but Doolittle is so ethically challenged that he has practically no chance of winning a re-election race if he persists in running. The GOP wants to believe he will retire, but Doolittle has been very firm in saying he is going nowhere -- which has made CA-04 one of the only "Lean Takeover" seats in my House rankings. But if this rumor is confirmed the GOP would breath a huge sigh of relief.

• No more candidate in NY-19

Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate Andrew Saul one of its top recruitment coups next year. Saul was one of the challengers who had raised the most money as of the end of September, and his presumed strength had led many to classify Hall as very endangered in this Republican-leaning district.

But Saul was reported today to have dropped out of the race, leaving the GOP without a challenger in what they consider a top priority! Saul did not give a specific reason but to cite "personal reasons." This is obviously a huge blow to Republicans, who must now hurry to find a top-tier challenger to keep this competitive. And even if they do, they have lost the half-million Saul had already raised and will start off as a significant disadvantage. Hall just got a lot more safer tonight.

• No one wants to run in NJ-07

The seat Ferguson retired from yesterday is turning out to be yet another recruitment nightmare for Republicans. The two candidates I mentioned yesterday announced they were not running within 24 hours. First, Tom Kean, who many considered the strongest possible candidate (I had already reported this yesterday).

Today, former Rep. Tom Franks says he will not run for the seat. He was quickly followed by a third Republican I did not mention myself but who was on everyone's list, state Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick. Bramnick also declined to run, saying there was more a Republican can do in Trenton than in Washington right now.

This is the same scneario that played out in OH-15 and in IL-11, where Republicans just were not going any top-tier candidates in open seats they had to defend. They managed to find someone in OH-15, but not really in IL-11. NJ-07 is a very competitive district under normal circumstances, so the GOP has to do some great recruitment effort in the next few days or weeks to salvage the situation.

• At least one Republican says he is staying!

Rumors had been circulating that Rep. Tom Reynolds (from NY) might be retiring next year, which would create yet another headache for the GOP. Though his seat is not the tightest of districts, Republicans are already dealing with enough problems as it is. But Reynolds's camp said today that he has no intention to retire and he will run next year.

Omaha Mayor is out, but is the Anchorage Mayor in?

Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey just announced that he will not run for the open Senate seat of Nebraska, making him the second high-profile Democrat to pass on the race. The first, of course, was former Governor and former Senator Bob Kerrey who many believed would have been favored against Republican heavyweight Johanns. Kerrey's withdrawal had made Nebraska drop from fourth to 13th in my Senate Rankings -- and Mike Fahey confirms that the seat is getting out of reach for Democrats.

Fahey would have had a hard time winning in such a conservative state against a popular politician like Johanns, but he would have kept the race competitive, potentially setting up an upset if the GOP primary ends up being very bloody and divisive and if the environment really continues to deteriorate for the GOP. Democrats are now likely to pressure Scott Kleeb to run -- underscoring how thin the Nebraska bench is for Dems.

Kleeb was the Democratic nominee in NE-03 in 2006. NE-03 is the sixth most Republican district in the country, but Kleeb got a stunning 45% of the vote after running a surprisingly competitive campaign. But that was a House seat, and former Governor Johanns is a much more formidable candidate, especially in a presidential year. So Democrats can't expect too much from Kleeb despite his strong 2006 performance. Nebraska is no longer a first or second tier race, despite Democratic hopes earlier in the fall. We shall probably know more very soon, as there are rumors of a poll that is to be released later in the week.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to make Alaska a top-tier race come 2008. The Washington Post has a great must-read article on the corruption scandals that are exploding in the state and the FBI investigations surrounding Senator Ted Stevens and Rep. Young, both Republicans. The article recapitulates the events and suscipions that are rocking the state and in which so many top business executives and state legislators (as well as Stevens's son) are heavily implicated.

Kos reports that Mark Begich, the popular Anchorage Mayor, is taking a hard look at the race as the DSCC is heavily courting him; and it looks like Schumer (and Kos) are increasingly confident that Begich is preparing for a run. But it looks like Begich will not declare his candidacy if he runs before... the spring, possibly as late as May. Begich's thinking is that it takes little money to run a competitive campaign in Alaska, so he would have ample time to fundraise and start campaigning then. (Though he is running against a mega-incumbent, the longest-serving Senate Republican and a towering figure of state politics... So he might need more time to topple Stevens).

However, Begich is also saying that he will let people know soon if he is not running to let another candidate get in the race. So if Begich has not announced in the next 2-3 months that he is NOT running, he probably will... And he could very well put Stevens in huge trouble, especially if the Senator has to deal with constant revelations about his corruption.

And in one last piece of Senate news, Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss (the Republican with the infamous 2002 ads linking Cleland to Ben Laden) is comfortably leading his second-tier Democratic opponents in a new Rasmussen poll: Of the three match-ups tested, broadcast investigative journalist Dale Cardwell gets the closest but is still behind 52% to 36%. Chambliss is viewed favorably by 60% of voters, so Democrats are unlikely to be able to mount a strong challenge against him.

North Carolina and Nebraska Dems looking for a candidate, CA GOP looking to get rid of one

• Recruitment failures in North Carolina and Nebraska
  

Democrats are particularly unhappy with the state of the race in North Carolina. They believe Dole is very vulnerable, but they have been unable to find a strong candidate to oppose her after countless recruitment failures (Gov. Easley the most notable). Now, the only candidate in the race is investment banker Jim Neal. While a poll yesterday found him trailing Dole by only 15% and holding her under 50%, national Democrats are unlikely to pay much attention to a Dole-Neal match-up and want another candidate to jump in. At this point, any elected official would do the trick. And it looks like they might succeed, as state Senator Kay Hagan (who had passed on the race earlier) is reconsidering.

Meanwhile in Nebraska, Democrats are still recovering from Bob Kerrey's refusal to join the open seat race -- and trying to find another candidate. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey would be their preferred choice, as he appears to be the only one that could make this race competitive (though he would definitely start as an underdog against former Governor Johanns). Today, the Omaha World-Herald reports that Fahey will decide within 30 days, but that he is not enthused at all by run. If Fahey declines, Dems would be left asking Steve Kleeb, a young democrat who ran a competitive House race in 2006. Kleeb would make the race interesting, but would hardly be a match for Johanns.

• Doolittle investigation stepping up

A few days after the first Republican congressman called for Doolittle to retire, the plot thickens in CA-04. The chief administrator of the House has been issued a subpoena of e-mails relating to Doolittle, in a sure sign that the investigation into Doolittle's ties to Abramoff is picking up steam. This would definitely give fodder to the Republican leadership that is trying to get Doolittle to retire. CA-04 is very Republican, so an open seat would favor the GOP. But Doolittle would surely lose his re-election race. Doolittle has said for now he will run again for sure -- but how much longer can he hold on in the face of these revelations?

• New Democrat in IL-06, one less in NM-01
  

Patricia Madrid, the Democratic nominee in NM-01 in 2006 who lost by 861 votes to Heather Wilson, will not run again in 2008. The former state Attorney General was rumored first for the open Senate seat, and then for the open House seat -- but she is staying out of it this cycle. It is unclear how much this hurts Democratic chances, as the party still has a strong candidate (Martin Heinrich) -- but Madrid is definitely the better-known and probably the stronger of the two. At least this means that the Democratic primary will be less divisive than at first thought.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is looking to compete in IL-06 against freshman Republican Peter Roskam. This was one of the most expansive races in 2006, as the DCCC wasted millions in supporting Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth who was running without the support of local activists. Roskam won with 51%. This time, the Democrats are fielding... another veteran, Jill Morgenthaler. This looks for now as a sure recipe for a replay of 2006. Morgenthaler was the Army's press contact during the Abu Graib scandal... not the best way for the DCCC to endear itself to local liberal activists.