12.10.2007

Afternoon polls: Democrats strong in Alaska and in the Tri-State area

  • GOP in trouble in Alaska
Research 2000 just released a poll commissioned by Daily Kos, and it has some awful news for Alaska Republicans:

  • In the at-large House race, incumbent GOP Rep. Don Young trails Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 49% to 42%.
  • In the Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Begich leads incumbent GOPer Ted Stevens 47% to 41%.
Alaska Republicans have been facing massive corruption investigations that has already endangered many state-level politicians. Don Young and Ted Stevens are both involved and under investigation as well, and fresh details and allegations are regularly exposed in the media. That is bad for any incumbent, even for someone like Stevens who has been serving in the Senate for decade (he is the longest-serving Republican). The investigation has been picking up in recent months, with executives acknowledging that their employees had worked on renovations of Stevens's house that was raided earlier in the summer by the FBI.

In House race, Berkowitz is officially in the race -- and this is the third poll out of three that has him leading (though I believe it is the first non-internal survey). In the Senate race, Begich is not yet a candidate, but there are indications he is looking to get in: It appears that Begich will not officially declare a run before the spring, but that he will announce he is not running by the end of 2007 to let someone else go for it if he does not want to. So we will essentially know what the situation is in the coming three weeks -- though Stevens retiring could slightly improve GOP chances still. I have rated the seat "Lean retention" and ranked it 9th for now in my latest Senate rankings.

  • Rasmussen polls the Tri-State region
Rasmussen released two new polls over the week-end from New Jersey and Connecticut pitting a three way race involving Mike Bloomberg. Their conclusion: Bloomberg is firmly in double-digits, and his strength depends on who the candidates of both parties are.

  • In New Jersey, Clinton gets 46% to Giuliani's 38% and Bloomberg's 12%. But if the candidates are Obama and Huckabee, it's 42% to 27% for the Democrat, with Bloomberg at 18%.
  • In Connecticut, Clinton gets 45% to 36% for Giuliani and 12% for Bloomberg. It's 40-29-18 if Obama and Huckabee are tested.
The numbers are not really comparable since Bloomberg surely benefits from Huckabee's much lower name recognition in the second set of numbers, as well as from the fact that the Tri-state area is basically home territory for Clinton and Giuliani. But Bloomberg definitely has the potential and room to grow. This also confirms that Giuliani would make the coastal states more competitive than they have been in recent cycles but that Clinton would still have the clear upper-hand, something that is confirmed by most other polls.

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