Omaha Mayor is out, but is the Anchorage Mayor in?

Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey just announced that he will not run for the open Senate seat of Nebraska, making him the second high-profile Democrat to pass on the race. The first, of course, was former Governor and former Senator Bob Kerrey who many believed would have been favored against Republican heavyweight Johanns. Kerrey's withdrawal had made Nebraska drop from fourth to 13th in my Senate Rankings -- and Mike Fahey confirms that the seat is getting out of reach for Democrats.

Fahey would have had a hard time winning in such a conservative state against a popular politician like Johanns, but he would have kept the race competitive, potentially setting up an upset if the GOP primary ends up being very bloody and divisive and if the environment really continues to deteriorate for the GOP. Democrats are now likely to pressure Scott Kleeb to run -- underscoring how thin the Nebraska bench is for Dems.

Kleeb was the Democratic nominee in NE-03 in 2006. NE-03 is the sixth most Republican district in the country, but Kleeb got a stunning 45% of the vote after running a surprisingly competitive campaign. But that was a House seat, and former Governor Johanns is a much more formidable candidate, especially in a presidential year. So Democrats can't expect too much from Kleeb despite his strong 2006 performance. Nebraska is no longer a first or second tier race, despite Democratic hopes earlier in the fall. We shall probably know more very soon, as there are rumors of a poll that is to be released later in the week.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to make Alaska a top-tier race come 2008. The Washington Post has a great must-read article on the corruption scandals that are exploding in the state and the FBI investigations surrounding Senator Ted Stevens and Rep. Young, both Republicans. The article recapitulates the events and suscipions that are rocking the state and in which so many top business executives and state legislators (as well as Stevens's son) are heavily implicated.

Kos reports that Mark Begich, the popular Anchorage Mayor, is taking a hard look at the race as the DSCC is heavily courting him; and it looks like Schumer (and Kos) are increasingly confident that Begich is preparing for a run. But it looks like Begich will not declare his candidacy if he runs before... the spring, possibly as late as May. Begich's thinking is that it takes little money to run a competitive campaign in Alaska, so he would have ample time to fundraise and start campaigning then. (Though he is running against a mega-incumbent, the longest-serving Senate Republican and a towering figure of state politics... So he might need more time to topple Stevens).

However, Begich is also saying that he will let people know soon if he is not running to let another candidate get in the race. So if Begich has not announced in the next 2-3 months that he is NOT running, he probably will... And he could very well put Stevens in huge trouble, especially if the Senator has to deal with constant revelations about his corruption.

And in one last piece of Senate news, Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss (the Republican with the infamous 2002 ads linking Cleland to Ben Laden) is comfortably leading his second-tier Democratic opponents in a new Rasmussen poll: Of the three match-ups tested, broadcast investigative journalist Dale Cardwell gets the closest but is still behind 52% to 36%. Chambliss is viewed favorably by 60% of voters, so Democrats are unlikely to be able to mount a strong challenge against him.