Monday polls: The Barr effect and the difference between the Northeast and the Northwest

There will be a lot more discussion of the general election map in the coming days, as the primary season wraps to a close. For now, we get a few interesting state polls, including our first look at the potential Barr effect. While Georgia is the Southern state in which the former congressman and current Libertarian candidate should have the most impact, PPP released a poll of North Carolina in which it included Barr's name:

• Barr gets 6% of the vote in both match-ups and helps Democrats draw close to John McCain, as Barack Obama trails 43% to 40% and Hillary Clinton is behind 39% to 34%.
  
• Note that it is rare to have the match-up including Clinton have such a higher proportion of undecided voters.

In 2004, Ralph Nader was not always included in polls but he ended up being a non-factor anyway, as voters who might have been hesitating between the Democratic Party and Nader remembered the lesson of 2000; also, Nader was not running as the Green Party's candidate so his spot was not guaranteed on state ballots. Will this year be different? Third-party candidates included on the ballot sometimes tend to appear stronger than they actually are (remember Rasmussen's strange poll that showed Stephen Colbert at 13%?), but there is no question that Bob Barr polling anywhere near 5% would make it very difficult for McCain to hold on to a number of states, as Barr would pull from disaffected Republicans who would be choosing between him and their party's nominee.

Complicating the picture for Republicans is the fact that the Libertarian Party has an automatic spot on the ballot in most states, so there is very little room for the GOP to maneuver and keep the former Republican congressman off the ballot, as Democrats did to Ralph Nader in 2004. PPP is the first pollster to include Barr in its poll but it would be good to have more match-ups try his name if he has the potential of being a disruptive force.

The second interesting poll of the day comes to us from Connecticut, where Rasmussen finds a close presidential race:

• Obama is only ahead of McCain 47% to 44% while Clinton is leading 48% to 42%.
  

Even more than fellow Tri-State Area state New Jersey, Connecticut could surprise us this year by hosting a competitive race. It is no secret that McCain believes he can appeal to independent voters and plans to campaign accordingly. Connecticut should be a good target for him as it is is much less of an automatic Democratic state than people think. Kerry won by 10% in 2004, and McCain will probably point to Lieberman's victory in 2006 as evidence of what he could accomplish. But ultimately, it would be a huge surprise to have any of the solid Kerry states shift this year given how toxic the national environment has become for the GOP since then.

Finally, SUSA released three general election polls from states that Democrats won in both 2000 and 2004, albeit not without trembling:

• In Minnesota, Obama is leading by a narrow 47% to 42%. McCain leads in a number of match-ups that include vice-presidential candidates, by as much as 8% if he selects the state's governor Pawlenty.

• In Washington, McCain is crushed 52% to 36%. The best he can muster is trailing by 5% if he selectes Romney and Obama selects Hagel.

• In Oregon, Obama also dominates, ahead of McCain 49% to 39%.
  

Washington and Oregon have long been two of the states in which Obama has polled the most strongly in the general election. Just as he is looking in the direction of the Northeast, McCain is also determined to put the two relatively swing states of the Northwest in play (Oregon and Washington). But the Western independents have become one of Obama's strongest constituencies, so much so that it appears that the Illinois Senator could be competitive in a number of Mountain West states. Unlike Northeastern independents among which McCain has strong appeal (see New Hampshire), Washington and to a lesser extent Oregon are clearly starting out in Obama's camp.

General election polls: Obama strengthens his hand, Clinton struggles

A week ago, Barack Obama's poll numbers had undoubtedly plunged, as surveys were showing him weakening in primary and general election match-ups with remarkable consistency. But this was in the heat of the Wright controversy. Since then, Obama's speech helped the Senator stop the bleeding. But the question now is whether he has regained some of the lost ground.

Two primary polls released 48 hours ago suggested he was back to his pre-Wright form, jumping to a huge lead in North Carolina and looking up in Pennsylvania. Now, four general election polls released today show him posting the type of numbers he needs. In fact, it is Hillary Clinton who is weakening and looking in difficulty in all four polls. First, a national poll from NBC:

• Barack Obama is leading John McCain by a narrow 44% to 42% while the Republican edges out Clinton 46% to 44%.
• In the primary match-up, Obama and Clinton are tied at 45%.
• In a confirmation of yesterday's Gallup poll, NBC finds that about 20% of Obama and Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if their candidate did not win the nomination.

But the most interesting number from this poll is Hillary Clinton's favorability number: 37%! This is the lowest she has ever been in in an NBC poll since early 2001, two months after she left the White House. This includes a 12% drop among African Americans, who appear to be blaming her for the Wright scandal despite the fact that she did not say anything about it until 2 days ago. Obama's numbers, meanwhile, are slightly in decline but less dramatically so, though it is worth noting that Obama loses some ground among independents and Republicans.

Meanwhile, we also get three state polls this morning -- all from blue states that Kerry and Gore both carried:

• In California, a PPI poll shows that neither Democrats manage a double-digit lead against McCain. Obama leads 49% to 40% and Clinton is up by a much narrower 46% to 43%.

• In Connecticut, Quinnipiac released a survey showing Obama is leading 52% to 35%, including 45% to 38% among independents. Clinton only leads 45% to 42% because of a differential among independents: She trails 48% to 36%.
  

• In Oregon's Rasmussen poll, finally, Obama is also stronger (though this one is less surprising, considering WA and OR have always been two states in which Obama has looked better). He leads McCain 48% to 42% while Clinton trails 46% to 40%.

It is worth noting that it is not coastal blue states that will determine whether Obama has successfully turned the page of the Wright controversy, so these 3 state polls are maybe not the most useful in that direction. But they still suggest that McCain won't have that easy a time contesting a state like Connecticut in which the Republican is placing hopes. Oregon looks tight, but it has not been a reliably blue state in past cycles. This morning's most worrisome numbers for Democrats come from California. A single-digit lead is certainly not enough to keep McCain away from the state, and the last thing Democrats want is to have to play defense in their #1 must-win state.

Sunday polls highlight McCain's strength

John McCain is improving his position in polls, as I already explained in my general election analysis just a few days ago. The latest surveys released today confirms that the GOP's position in the race to the White House is not as tough as road as it looked to be just a few weeks ago (though McCain will sill have to reverse an impressive number of indicators to stay competitive in the months ahead.

First come the national election polls, since Zogby released a survey that included... Ralph Nader:

• Against Clinton, McCain is ahead 45% to 39%, with 6% for Ralph Nader who would get 15% of independents.
• With Obama in the mix, the margin is similar, with McCain leading 44% to 39% for the Democrat and 5% for Ralph Nader.
  

This is the first poll that tested Nader's candidacy, and it suggests that the candidate's level of support could be closer to 2000 than 2004. But keep in mind that Democrats will throw as many procedural obstacles as they can in Nader's path, and his name will likely not appear in many states, thereby reducing his national number.

The Rasmussen tracking poll comes out with similar numbers, while Gallup's shows more mixed numbers:

• McCain beats Clinton 46% to 43%, and he is ahead of Obama 47% to 43%.

• In Gallup's poll, McCain and Clinton are tied at 46% but McCain beats Obama 47% to 44%.
  

Rasmussen also released a wave of state polls that show some appetizing options for the Arizona Senator:

• In Florida, McCain is ahead of both Democrats: He beats Clinton 47% to 40% and is ahead of Obama 47% to 43%.

Add to this Rasmussen's polls from earlier this week: They showed McCain ahead of both Democrats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and we get a picture of a soaring McCain in the most important of the November swing states, at least in Rasmussen's polls. Rasmussen also released two polls from the Northeast which show Democrats ahead in all four match-ups, but sometimes by smaller margins than they should be leading by

• In Connecticut, Obama is ahead comfortably 50% to 38% but Clinton is leading 47% to 44%. The difference comes mainly from the male vote, which gives McCain a double-digit lead against Clinton but places Obama up by 4%.

• In New York, Clinton is leading 50% to 38% and Obama is leading 51% to 38%. Both are very comfortable margins, but the fact that Democrats are barely crossing the 50% threshold does not look that good.
  

It remains to be seen whether McCain can put these blue states in play. Other polls taken in recent weeks -- starting with SUSA's 50 state tracking, show Democrats more in command in the Northeast than what transpires in the Rasmussen surveys. But after months in which Democrats were accustomed to putting the GOP in great difficulty in states like Kentucky and Virginia, these polls suggest that the playing field is becoming more balanced -- at least for as long as the Democratic candidates are busy running against each other.

Afternoon polls: Democrats strong in Alaska and in the Tri-State area

• GOP in trouble in Alaska
  

Research 2000 just released a poll commissioned by Daily Kos, and it has some awful news for Alaska Republicans:

• In the at-large House race, incumbent GOP Rep. Don Young trails Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 49% to 42%.
• In the Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Begich leads incumbent GOPer Ted Stevens 47% to 41%.

Alaska Republicans have been facing massive corruption investigations that has already endangered many state-level politicians. Don Young and Ted Stevens are both involved and under investigation as well, and fresh details and allegations are regularly exposed in the media. That is bad for any incumbent, even for someone like Stevens who has been serving in the Senate for decade (he is the longest-serving Republican). The investigation has been picking up in recent months, with executives acknowledging that their employees had worked on renovations of Stevens's house that was raided earlier in the summer by the FBI.

In House race, Berkowitz is officially in the race -- and this is the third poll out of three that has him leading (though I believe it is the first non-internal survey). In the Senate race, Begich is not yet a candidate, but there are indications he is looking to get in: It appears that Begich will not officially declare a run before the spring, but that he will announce he is not running by the end of 2007 to let someone else go for it if he does not want to. So we will essentially know what the situation is in the coming three weeks -- though Stevens retiring could slightly improve GOP chances still. I have rated the seat "Lean retention" and ranked it 9th for now in my latest Senate rankings.

• Rasmussen polls the Tri-State region
  

Rasmussen released two new polls over the week-end from New Jersey and Connecticut pitting a three way race involving Mike Bloomberg. Their conclusion: Bloomberg is firmly in double-digits, and his strength depends on who the candidates of both parties are.

• In New Jersey, Clinton gets 46% to Giuliani's 38% and Bloomberg's 12%. But if the candidates are Obama and Huckabee, it's 42% to 27% for the Democrat, with Bloomberg at 18%.
• In Connecticut, Clinton gets 45% to 36% for Giuliani and 12% for Bloomberg. It's 40-29-18 if Obama and Huckabee are tested.

The numbers are not really comparable since Bloomberg surely benefits from Huckabee's much lower name recognition in the second set of numbers, as well as from the fact that the Tri-state area is basically home territory for Clinton and Giuliani. But Bloomberg definitely has the potential and room to grow. This also confirms that Giuliani would make the coastal states more competitive than they have been in recent cycles but that Clinton would still have the clear upper-hand, something that is confirmed by most other polls.