House diary: Dems hoping to pick-up red districts

Boosted by their success in IL-14's special election, Democrats are now looking in the direction of more districts that are traditionally Republican. And first on their list is Alaska's at-large seat, where Rep. Don Young has been embroiled in a corruption investigation that is threatening the state's entire Republican party. A December poll showed Young trailing his top-tier Democratic opponent Berkowitz.

Now, Young has attracted major Republican competition in the form of a second primary opponent. The state's lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell (whose dad Young defeated in the 1980s) has announced he is running against the incumbent. Young could be saved by his adversaries dividing the anti-incumbent vote, but Parnell's entrance guarantees that there will a tough primary. This is also a rare case in which Democrats would be better off running against the incumbent, so they want Young to survive the primary: The main reason they are competitive in this red state is the incumbent's ethical troubles.

In IL-14, meanwhile, Democrats still have to hold the seat in November to keep it for 2 more years, and Republicans know an incumbent is never as vulnerable as in his first re-election fight. Unfortunately for the GOP, they are stuck with the same candidate they had in the special election (Oberweis) when one of the main reasons they lost it in the first place was Oberweis's divisive image. Now Robert Novak is reporting that Republicans are trying to get their candidate to withdraw so they can attempt to conquer the seat back with a stronger candidate, but it is very unlikely that Oberweis will yield. After all, this is probably his last attempt to win an office after a series of failed elections.

Finally, Republicans will have to defend 4 special elections in May: Louisiana's 1st and 6th districts, Mississippi's 1st and 3rd districts. The runoffs of primaries will be held in the coming weeks, so we will have to wait to get the exact picture of the special elections. But we can already says that LA-01 and MS-03 are too conservative to be in any way competitive, and the Democrats are not fielding candidates in any state to contest the seats. MS-01 is also probably out of reach -- though less dramatically so.

That leaves us with LA-06, whose incumbent (Rep. Baker) resigned from his elected office to make money as a lobbyist. The Republican candidate (probably state Rep. Jenkins) will start as the favorite, but Democrats believe they can create a surprise here depending on the outcome of their primary. It goes without saying that a Democratic pick-up in any of these four
districts would be a huge shock for the GOP, especially when coupled with the loss of IL-14, and it would create major turbulences in the NRCC.

In already difficult year, loss of IL-14 rattles House GOP

Eight months from a general election that is looking increasingly difficult for the House GOP, Democrats scored a major coup last night by picking-up IL-14 -- the seat of former speaker Dennis Hastert -- in a special election. With all votes counted, Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis 53% to 47%, in a traditionally red district that George Bush won win 55% in 2004.

A few months ago, Democrats made a similar push in OH-05, a red district where they thought they had a chance, but the GOP candidate ended up winning convincingly. Yesterday, Democrats exacted revenge and their victory will reverberate in the coming weeks, as operatives from both parties try to figure out what it means for November's election.

House control: The first consequence is obvious -- but it has to be said: Democrats have increased their majority by one vote. That means that Republicans will have to pick up one more seat in November if they want to regain control of the House -- a scenario that is looking increasingly unlikely with every passing week. However you spin it, it is difficult to find scenarios in which Republicans get close to picking up 17 seats -- without even accounting for the gains that Democrats are sure to score in many GOP-held seats.

A harbinger of things to come?: The temptation is strong to read IL-14's result as a sign that Democrats are headed for a strong year. If they are running so far ahead of the district's political make-up, the thinking goes, we could witness another blue wave on November 4th. But this has to be qualified for a number of reasons. For one, special election pick-ups do not necessarily serve as a good predictor of the November elections. In 2004, Democrats picked up two very difficult seats (SD-AL and KY-04) but the party had a weak showing come the general election. Second, Oberweis was a weak candidate that has already lost a string of elections and that attracted criticism by editorials like the Chicago Tribune's traditionally favorable to Republicans. Third, the low turnout of a special election might have helped Democrats, whereas Republicans will be more mobilized in red-leaning districts in November since there also is a Republican year. That said, yesterday's special election foreshadows two huge problems the GOP will suffer from in the coming months: Their open seat headaches and their fundraising woes.

The GOP's open seat problem: If nothing else, yesterday's election confirmed that the Republicans are facing an open seat nightmare. As is characteristic in the cycle after a party loses the majority, many Republicans have announced that they are not running for re-election next year , and a very high number hails from swing districts. In a year where the Republicans were hoping to put most of the 31 freshmen Democrats that pick-ed up GOP seats in 2006 on the defensive, it is Democrats who are facing dozens of opportunities that pretty much just sprang up by themselves. And this is the problem with open seats: They not only appear as likely take-overs in areas that are trending blue (VA-11, IL-11, NM-1, NJ-07...) but they also provide an opportunity to seize seats that would never have been in play otherwise.

IL-14 is a perfect example of that: It hadn't been remotely competitive in more than 20 years, but it opening up allowed Democrats to force Republican hands and test the GOP strength's, and they came away with an extra seat. There are sure to implement the same strategy in many of the open seats that are also supposed to be reliably Republican, places like MO-09, KY-02, IL-18 and even NM-02.

Republican funding woes: The second major issue Republicans are facing is fundraising. The DCCC has a massive cash-on-hand advantage, and it will use its money to put marginally Republican seats in play and test GOP resistance. In IL-14 already (following a scenario that played out in OH-05), the NRCC was forced to spend more than $1 million defending what should have been a safe seat, which represents about 20% of its total cash-on-hand. Republicans will not have the money to do the same in the fall. If Democrats go all out in unexpected districts (like IL-14) across the country, Republicans will be able to defend a few of those but will have to leave many incumbents to their own fate. And considering that NRCC help could not save Oberweis yesterday consider how much more dramatic the results could be in districts where the DCCC can play without the NRCC's response.

The future of IL-14: Foster was only elected to fill the remainder of Hastert's term, and Oberweis and Foster will face each other once more in November. The seat will most certainly
stay competitive, and Republicans have hope of reclaiming the district -- especially since the turnout will be higher, which should help the GOP in a presidential year. However, Foster starts off his first re-election campaign with a very significant edge. It is very rare for a candidate elected in a special election to lose a few months later: In 2004, Herseth in SD-AL and Chandler in KY-04 won rematches in November very comfortably; the same in 2006 in CA-50, for Republicans. Electors do not tend to change their mind that rapidly, and the Democrats will do everything to bolster Foster's incumbency claim in the coming months, not to mention that the NRCC will not have the money in November to contest this district the way it did in the past few weeks.

The impact on the presidential race: Obama and McCain were both involved in this election. The former had cut an ad for the Democrat, while the latter campaigned with Oberweis. Foster's election will allow Obama to make the case that he has significant coattails and that he can help Democrats strengthen their congressional majorities. Naturally, IL-14 was in Obama's home-state, which forces us to qualify any such argument Obama might make. But there is a concrete benefit for Obama out of yesterday's election: Foster now becomes a superdelegate, and will almost certainly vote for Barack Obama at the Denver convention.

Special election in IL-14: Can Democrats take Hastert's old seat?

Update, 9:50pm: The election has been called for Bill Foster. With 94% of precincts reporting, Foster is ahead 53% to 47%, which corresponds to a 5000-vote deficit. Democrats managed to pick-up the district of former speaker Dennis Hastert, and the fall picture got that much more worrisome for Republicans. More analysis will come soon.

Update, 9:20pm: With more than half of the precincts now reporting, Foster appears to be in good shape, leading with 52% of the vote! He is now narrowly ahead in Kane County -- where by far the most voters reside, and where Bush got 56% in 2004 -- and he is way ahead in DeKalb and Aurora (64% in the latter).

Original post: Polls closed at 8pm ET in IL-14, Dennis Hastert's former House seat. Democrat Bill Foster and Republican Jim Oberweis have been campaigning hard in the district, and both congressional committees spent hundreds of thousands of dollars helping their candidate. The results tonight could serve as a harbinger of things to come in November. IL-14 is usually a reliably Republican district, which voted 55% for Bush, and a Democratic pick-up would signal that the party could add to its majority. It would also mean that the NRCC spent more than $1 million of its small cash-on-hand and failed to defend a seat it should have held with ease.

The first batch of results showed Oberweis starting with a lead, but the contest has become much closer since then. Right now with about 32% of precincts reporting, Foster is very narrowly ahead... by about 400 votes. DeKalb County -- one of district's more Democratic areas -- is already reporting at 62%, but Aurora County, which should also favor Foster, has not reported yet. This could be a long night.

Republicans lose a Senate candidate and a lot of House money

Update: A new poll of IL-14 conducted by SUSA shows Democratic candidate Foster leading the Republican, Oberweis, 52% to 45%. The previous poll of the race also showed Foster leading, by 4%, but that was an internal Democratic poll. SUSA's numbers are therefore huge and explain why the NRCC is spending so much of its money trying to defend a seat that it really cannot afford to lose.

Original post: Republicans have had trouble finding Democratic-held Senate seats to contest this year. They are mounting a solid challenge in Louisiana, and they thought they had found a candidate strong enough to put New Jersey in play: wealthy self-funder and real estate developer Anne Estabrook. She had declared a run against Senator Frank Lautenberg, who many polls show is a vulnerable and not-so-popular Democrat, mostly due to his age (he is 84). New Jersey has long been a state where Republican hopes (and resources) go to die, but with Estabrook funding her own campaign the NRSC could have looked elsewhere.

But Estabrook has now retired from the race because of health problems: She announced today that she had suffered a minor stroke on Monday. Thankfully, she appears to be recovering and she is doing much better. But she is unwilling to continue a campaign in these conditions.

This leaves Republicans without a strong candidate, a month from the filing deadline (on March 7th). State assemblyman Joe Pennacchio is the favorite to win the nomination now, but he is unlikely to be competitive in the general election. While NJ's Senate race was always leaning Democratic, this does allow the DSCC to not worry about this at all and only have to defend Louisiana, allowing it to spend all its millions going after Republican seats.

Meanwhile, the race in the special election in IL-14 is heating up, a few days after the first reports that the DCCC and RNCC were getting involved and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars. Now, both committees have upped their spending considerably and bought more air time, with the DCCC putting in a considerable $300,000 investment on Monday, and the NRCC following wiht $180,000 on Tuesday. This means that national Democrats have now spent around $1 million and that Republicans are around $1.2 million. This is a very significant dynamic given how massively House Democrats are outraising the House GOP: They want to expand the map and test GOP incumbents everywhere, and the NRCC -- with stretched out resources -- will not have the money in the fall to respond to every attack the way it is doing now. MyDD calculates that the Democratic spending on IL-14 represents 3% of the DCCC's budget, whereas Republican spending represents nearly 30% of the NRCC's spending! That's a huge -- and very worrisome -- number for the GOP.

The election will take place this coming Saturday, and it promises to be a tight one between Democrat Foster and Republican Oberweis. Barack Obama has gotten involved in the race, filming an ad on behalf of Foster (you can watch it here) saying that people don't have to wait until November to vote for change. Obama's intervention means that the results will be interpreted as a test of how much coattails Obama would have in his home-state in November, as there are a number of tight Illinois races Democrats would like to pick up.

IL-14 special election heats up, SD and NC Senate races do not

3 months after the special election in OH-05 unexpectedly saw a last-minute deluge of ads by the national committees, the special election in IL-14, former Speaker Hastert's district, is heating up. The election is set for March 8th, and while this is a red-leaning district Democrats believe they can take it from the GOP. An internal poll for the Foster campaign released earlier this week has the Democrat leading 45% to 41% for the GOP candidate, Oberweis -- and while an internal poll always has to be taken with a grain of salt it is the second internal that Foster is releasing without a response by Oberweis.

Now, in a sure sign that this race is indeed very competitive, the DCCC and NRCC have jumped in with advertisements of their own. The NRCC is spending $900,000 as of now, with the DCCC in with a bit more than $600,000. This is very significant, because the Republican committee is far behind Democrats in money. In fact, this sum represents a bit less than 1/6th of their total cash on hand at the end of January!

In December, Republicans ended up winning OH-05 on a comfortable score, but they had to spend millions to do so. And this illustrates the problem the GOP is facing in the coming months: There are many seats like OH-05 and IL-14 that could be competitive next year, especially since so many GOP congressmen are retiring. The DCCC has a lot of money to spend and will do so liberally, testing GOP strength left and right -- just as they did in OH-05 and now in IL-14. They want to expand the map and stretch the GOP resources. The NRCC is responding right now -- and it saved Latta in Ohio -- but it will not be able to do so everywhere in the fall. Democrats are hoping that this forces Republicans to defend the reddest seats in priority, leaving some of their most vulnerable districts undefended -- not to mention that the NRCC can hardly hope to spend any money trying to pick up Democratic-held seats if it has to defend places like IL-14.

Make sure to check my House ratings that I updated last Saturday. Since Saturday is often a low-criculation day, you might have missed it. IL-14 is rated as a toss-up.

• Recruitment in SD-Sen and NC-Sen

The news for Democrats is not so good, however, in North Carolina. The filing deadline passed yesterday and they have to settle for the two candidates they have had for a few months now, state Senator Kay Hagan and investment banker Jim Neal. Most polls have shown that sen. Elizabeth Dole is a weak incumbent who could be beatable with the right candidate, but it is unlikely that either Hagan or Neal will be able to give her that strong of a challenge. The DSCC is hopeful that they will prove to be strong candidates, and it is certainly possible -- after all, the DSCC has enough funds to weaken Dole and give an opening to their challenger -- but recruitment here has to be disappointing for Democrats.

In South Dakota, it's Republicans that are having recruitment problems. Senator Tim Johnson was for long considered to be a potential retirement, but there now is little doubt that he is running again and Republicans have not been able to find a strong challenger against him. Governor Rounds was rumored for a while but he is showing no indication of wanting to jump in. With the filing deadline fast approaching, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby is rumored as a potential candidate, but it does not look like he would be a very strong one. For one, Kirby was in office only for 2 years until 1995 and he lost a variety of primaries since then. Not to mention that he is a more than controversial figure because of his involvement in transforming cadaver skin into cosmetic surgery products (as Kos's Markos is writing a lot about).

Now, the DSCC is releasing a poll that shows Johnson defeating Kirby... 70% to 19%. The poll also shows Johnson with a 72% approval rating. Sure, this is an internal poll but this kind of number does point to how difficult it would be for Republicans to unseat Johnson even with the right candidate, and how unlikely it is for them to get it competitive unless they get a first-tier candidate in (i.e. Gov. Rounds).

Wednesday polls: Obama polls well in general election match-ups, Dems have a shot at IL-14

• General election

Rasmussen released three state general election polls today, with Barack Obama polling much better than Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and Colorado, while the two are at the same position in Missouri:

• In Missouri, McCain leads Clinton by 1%, 43% to 42%. Against Obama, he is ahead by 2%, 42% to 40%.
• The Colorado numbers show some major discrepancy: McCain leads Clinton by double-digits, 49% to 35%, while Obama is ahead 46% to 37%.
• In New Hampshire, finally, Obama is ahead 49% to 36% against McCain, while Clinton only leads him 43% to 41%. This is entirely due to the male population, which favors Obama over Clinton by 18%, while the two run equally well among women.

Three things to point out from these numbers: (1) We are used to seeing Missouri numbers that are much more favorable to Dems, but that is because the numbers we usually looked at where the match-ups with Rudy Giuliani. SUSA's last Missouri poll, for example, showed Clinton and Obama leading Giuliani but trailing McCain. This trend will likely hold in other purlpish-red states like Virginia and Kentucky.

(2) I wrote in my last detailed discussion of electability that Obama polls better than Hillary in the West (I particularly had in mind Washington, Oregon, and Colorado) and Clinton polls better in the South and very red states (I had in mind Kentucky and Virginia), with the electability question more unclear in the rest of the country. This poll confirms that, and Colorado especially shows a gigantic advantage for Obama.

(3) This is the point in the election season that the good coverage McCain and Obama are having will impact their general election poll numbers, just as Kerry rose against Bush in the weeks after his primary victory. The latest Rasmussen tracking, for example, shows Obama gaining two points against McCain after the week-end, with Clinton losing two points. This opposite trend can clearly be attributed to their divergent fates and the kind of coverage they are getting. But this obviously comes at the worst time for Clinton, and allows Obama to step up an electability argument two weeks from March 4th and at a time they are trying to both court superdelegates.

• IL-14, special election
  

The special election in IL-14 to fill Dennis Hastert's House seat is scheduled for March 8th. Both parties selected their nominees for the special election on February 5th, with Jim Oberweis representing the GOP and Bill Foster the Democrats. Oberweis had lost a few GOP primaries before, so this is already an improvement for him.

You might remember that the timing of this election provoked some controversy, as Democrats were hoping that Hastert would resign in time to let the governor schedule the general election on February 5th and not the primary, in the hope that the high Super Tuesday turnout in Obama's home-state might help Democrats pick-up this usually reliably Republican seat and Hastert made sure to wait off on his resignation, reassuring the GOP about their prospects here.

But a new poll released today by the Foster campaign has this as a very tight race, with Oberweis up 45% to 43%. This is an internal poll so take it with a lot of caution, but it still underscores the tricky nature of any special election, low turnout affair where the most motivated party often wins (and this year that clearly seems to mean Democrats).

This is not the kind of seat Republicans want to be defending right now, as the NRCC is at a significant financial deficit. Democrats have been very effective at expanding the map, and while they fell short in OH-06 in December they forced the NRCC to spend a considerable amount of money. Will they make a similar play here? We will surely know in the coming weeks by keeping an eye on money spending in this race, and how much both parties are willing to spend.

Congressional diary: OH-05 heating up, and Stumbo looking to get in

• The DCCC gets organized...
  

It's 9 days till the OH-05 special election, and the campaign suddenly become heated yesterday with the DCCC buying air time in the district. The ad they are running against Republican Bob Latta can be viewed here. It links Latta to former Governor Bob Taft and Tom Noe, two Republicans who were disgraced in the corruption scandal that rocked the state last year and was a big factor in the easy Democratic victories in the gubernatorial and senatorial races.

The DCCC is also organizing some rapid volunteer effort, trying to send volunteers from DC to Ohio and promising accommodation. I myself received an email about this effort -- Two teams are leaving for Bowling Green from DC on Wednesday and Friday.

Also, Governor Strickland declared today that the race was "very winnable" -- and he presumably would be unwilling to put himself on the line like that if he did not actually believe a Democratic upset was possible.

• ... and the NRCC responds

The DCCC might have already gotten what it was looking, as the NRCC was forced to immediately respond today to avoid the humiliating loss of a very conservative district.

Republicans are now spending $250,000 in ads and direct mailers attacking the Democratic candidate Robin Weirauch, thus outspending the DCCC's ad buy. Don't forget that the NRCC is currently in debt, while the DCCC has about $29 million dollar at hand, so Republicans clearly cannot afford outspending Democrats in districts that they should have no trouble keeping. They will not be able to follow the DCCC's spending next fall, which could help Democrats win seats they might otherwise lose.

• KY-Sen: Stumbo already blasts Luallen

Attorney General Greb Stumbo looks to be ready to be looking to get in the Kentucky Senate race. The surest sign? He took swipes at state Auditor Crit Luallen, who has been closer to Mitch McConnell in polls and who seems to be the DSCC's favored candidate. "Even if I were not interested in this race, I would not advise her not to run," he said. Stumbo also alluded to an internal that show him very competitive in the general election and also show him leading potential Democratic competitors in a primary.

Polls taken in November suggested that Mitch McConnell was vulnerable to a challenge by Luallan or Stumbo; while Luallen is touted as the stronger candidate, there is little doubt Stumbo will make the race competitive -- despite worries that he has too much personal baggage that could be unearthed by the GOP. The bottom line is that McConnell is unexpectedly very vulnerable and the DSCC will make the most of that.

• IL-14 special election set

Another special election is coming up in IL-14 with similar circumstances: conservative district and Republicans favored. Democrats will surely attempt to push Republicans to panic in Illinois as well, but the GOP has at least won round 1 and managed to avoid bad timing for the special election.

Democrats were hoping that the general election would be held on February 5th, day of the presidential primary that should have a much bigger Democratic turnout given Obama's presidential candidacy. But Rep. Dennis Haster waited long enough to effectively resign that the calendar would have been much too cramped. Governor Blagojevitch had no choice today but to schedule the general election to March 8th. Just like OH-05, the GOP starts off favored here. If things pick up, they probably will not until some time in February.

Two resignations and one retirement

• What will be the timing of Mississippi's special election?

In the aftermath of Trent Lott's completely unexpected resignation this morning, the controversy that has been rocking the state is when the special election should take place. Governor Barbour said today that the special election would be held in November 2008, along with the congressional and presidential elections -- this would allow Lott's replacement to build incumbency for 11 months, which should help Republicans keep the seat in the hands of the senator chosen by Barbour.

But the media soon started reporting that state law holds that a special election has to be called within 90 days of a resignation if it occurs in the year before normally scheduled elections! This would put the special election to fill Lott's seat some time in February or March, much less time for a new senator to build up incumbency. And remember: Lott will resign in 2007 because he wants to avoid the new lobbying rules that only come into effect for lawmakers leaving office "on or after" December 31st.

Yet, Barbour and the state GOP has no intention of giving in on the special election date... And they are basing their on a very subtle technicality. Check out the text of the law:

The election shall be held within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor's proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator.

In other words, if the resignation is the year of a statewide election, the special election shall not be within 90 days. Barbour's office is now arguing that, because there was a statewide election held in November 2007, Lott's resignation falls under this "exception category" and Barbour can "designate" the special election to be in November 2008. The Secretary of State (a Democrat) agreed with Barbour on the basis of what he himself called a "technicality."

This appears to respect neither the spirit of the law (designed to insure that a senator does not serve too long without facing voters) nor the text of the law. Consider the use of "the" in The governor "shall designate the general election day..." In other words, if the resignation falls the year of a statewide election, the governor has to call the special election on the day of that statewide election... which implies that the election has to be in the future and that November 2007's election in no way applies here! The state Democratic Party quickly issued a press release calling for Barbour to respect the law... and it will be interesting to see whether this goes to the courts.

• Timing issues also in IL-14

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert is officially resigning tonight. He has been postponing this for weeks to prevent Illinois Governor Blagojevich from setting the special election on February 5th (the day of the presidential primary which should have a huge Democratic turnout given the candidacy of Obama, the state's senator). Hastert is now betting that it is too late for Blagojevitch to set the general election for February 5th since he would then have to set the primary in mid-January, in less than 2 months.

That does appear to be too crampled a calendar, so Hastert seems to have gotten his wish: that the primary be scheduled on February 5th, and the general election some time late February or beginning of March. Hastert explicitly state this was his main consideration in choosing his resignation date: "“By selecting this specific time to resign, it allows Governor Blagojevich the opportunity to announce a special primary to select candidates for my unexpired term on February 5, 2008." Democrats are likely to be unhappy about this, but at least Hastert did not break any laws in the process.

Three of the four main candidates for the seat -- Republicans Jim Oberweis and Chris Lauzen, Democrat Bill Foster -- have already each donated more than $300,000 of their own money to themselves, leaving 2006 Democratic nominee John Laesch as the only non self-funding candidate. Republicans have a significant edge in this district that trends red traditionally, especially now that Democrats will be deprived of the February 5th boost.

• Carlson bows out

The third congressional story of the day is tragic news from Indiana, where Democratic Rep. Julia Carson announced over the week-end that she has terminal lung cancer; Carson had suffered from other illnesses over the past few months and years, and had not cast a vote in the House since mid-September. Carson will finish her term until next November, and will then not run for re-election -- so this seat will be open. Republicans were already preparing to challenge this seat before this tragic news broke out with state Senator Jon Elrod, but the district is fundamentally blue (Kerry won with 57%).