Morning polls: Is Mitch McConnell really that vulnerable?

The Kentucky Senate race is currently rated 15 on my senate rankings. I was preparing to move it up a few slots, but that was more because of other races looking much less competitive than because I believed the situation in KY had changed significantly. But a new poll out today -- the first I have seen testing actual match-ups -- suggests that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in for a tough fight.

The poll, ordered by Herald-Leader/Action News 36, is an independent survey, not a Democratic fantasy, and the numbers are show the extent of the Republican weakness:

• Mitch McConnell's disapproval rating for the first time exceeds his approval rating: 46% to 45%. A small difference, but a significant shift for a man who used to be very popular in his state. SUSA monthly polls have a similar finding, as McConell's approval dropped from 60% in February to 41% this month.
• Rep. Chandler, who unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 2003, is within 5 points of McConell: 46% to 41%. Only trouble, Chandler has made it very clear he has no intention of running.
• But no reason to panic for Democrats, for three Democrats who are strongly considering the race are also very strong: State Auditor Luallen, who is up for re-election in 10 days and has not ruled out a run, is also within 5 points: 45% to 40%.
• Attorney General Stumbo, who is the most likely to jump in the race (he has an explanatory committee and is looking to decide within the next few weeks) is behind 46% to 37%.
• And in perhaps the best sign that McConnell is vulnerable, he only leads by 11 against a veteran of the Iraq War, Horne, who is mostly unknown.

Most revealing, of course, is that McConnell cannot cross 50% against any candidate. Being under 50% is supposed to be a sign of vulnerablity for an incumbent, as undecideds tend to break for challengers, but failing to gather a majority against unknown candidates is definitely a sign something is wrong. The most likely explanation is that McConnell is being Dashle-ized. His new partisan position in DC is having a bad impact on his image back home. Reid is suffering from the same phenomenon in Nevada, but he is not up for re-election until 2010.

This is as much a sign of the weakness of Kentucky Republicans than of McConnell's personal vulnerability. GOP Gov. Fletcher is about to lose in a landslide in ten days, and devastating ads like this one are hurting the GOP brand dramatically by reminding voters of the extent of Fletcher's corruption. And Hillary should not be a weight on the ticket if she is the nominee, given recent polls that actually have her ahead in the state!

• Rasmussen has bad news for Clinton

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen had Clinton leading Giuliani by 7 and Thompson by 15 in its national poll. This confirmed the previous polls Rasmussen had taken, as well as other polls by other institutes that showed Clinton inching ahead of Giuliani in national match-ups. But today's Rasmussen numbers are a dramatic turnaround: Giuliani now leads Clinton 46% to 44%, and Clinton is only ahead of Thompson 47% to 45%. Yes, those are only one set of numbers, but the trendline is not good. Though Rasmussen points out that over the past 6 weeks of polling, Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 44% and Thompson 49% to 41%. The other bottom line: Until last week, the three major Democrats led all twelve match-ups against the four major Republicans in the latest Rasmussen polls. Now, two such "last match-ups" favor the Republicans: Obama-McCain and Clinton-Giuliani.