12.13.2007

Senate: Democrats get a candidate in Kentucky, but Landrieu looks weak in LA

  • Andrew Horne jumps in
Democrats have a candidate in Kentucky's Senate race. A week after State Auditor Crit Luallen -- who many viewed as the strongest candidate against GOP incumbent Mitch McConnell -- announced she would not run, attorney and veteran Andrew Horne announced his candidacy. There still are other Democrats considering the race, including Attorney General Stumbo and Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo -- the latter is unlikely to run, but the former still has an explanatory committee.

Some feel very strongly about Horne's chances, but there is no denying that in a major high-profile race like this one against the Senate Minority Leader who sits on top of $10 million warchest and has already ran ads, there are candidates who would have been stronger. Horne will definitely make this competitive: An October poll that had McConnell barely edging out Luallen had Horne 11% behind and holding McConnell under 50%, a great showing for someone whose name ID is still not very high.

The race will stay for now hovering between Lean and Likely retention; let's see how much the DSCC is willing to commit to the race, as it could become very tight if national Democrats are willing to get involved to help their nominee to counter the McConnell onslaught. And odds are the DSCC will get involved: They have lots of money, and they want to keep McConnell stranded at home instead of helping out fellow GOPers across the country.

  • Louisiana is a toss-up
Yesterday we got new polls from Colorado and Idaho's Senate races, and both were tighter than expected. Today, SUSA released a poll from Louisiana. It is tight, but this one was expected:

  • Incumbent Dem Mary Landrieu leads her challenger John Kennedy 46% to 42%.
  • Reminder: An internal Zogby poll for the Kennedy campaign released last month by the Republican had him up 45% to 38%.
This will be one of the tightest Senate races in the country, and Landrieu is clearly in danger: She's a two-term incumbent and is still under 50% -- under 40%, even, in the Zogby poll. One reassuring thought for Dems is that Kennedy won't necessarily benefit from added exposure since he is already pretty well-known in the state: He ran for Senate in 04 (as a Democrat...) and has been the state Treasurer for a while. One reassuring thought for Republicans is that the national committee will dump a lot of resources here since Louisiana is the only Dem-held state in which Republicans have a chance at this point. So Kennedy can be sure he will get a lot of help.

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1 Comments:

  • "One reassuring thought for Republicans is that the national committee will dump a lot of resources here since Louisiana is the only Dem-held state in which Republicans have a chance at this point."

    She has $3 million in the bank, and the Republicans will have to play defense in at least 9 states.

    Unless the Republicans decide to try and take down Landrieu over defending a couple tight states, I think she'll have a large money advantage.

    On the other hand, they might poor a lot of money in the state just so they can say they defeated at least one Democrat, but if they did that, it would be a disaster for 2008, and even 2010.

    By Anonymous C.S.Strowbridge, At 13 December, 2007 14:11  

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