In blow to Senate Democrats, top recruits in KY-Sen now appear unlikely to run

Democrats get very bad (and rather unexpected) news in Kentucky today. The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that both state Auditor Crit Luallen and Attorney General Greg Stumbo are unlikely to challenge Mitch McConnell in next year's Senate race. Luallen has reportedly told party leaders in DC she does not want to run anymore, while Stumbo has expressed the desire to run for his old state House seat instead -- a rare example of a politician with no ambition to rise up but go back where he started from instead (which won't be easy anyway since his old seat has a Democratic representative whom he would have to fight in a primary).

Stumbo's decision is especially surprising, given that Stumbo had formed an explanatory committee months ago. He also had publicly bashed Luallen just a few days ago, saying that she had little chance of winning and that his internal polls indicated he would crush her in the primary and have a great chance in the general election. One does not say things like that if one does not strongly intend to run.

All polls taken in the past three months showed McConnell very vulnerable -- for example this one that had Stumbo and Luallen within single-digits against the Senate Minority Leader, kept under 50%. Kentucky had emerged as an unlikely battleground in these circumstances, and Democrats were looking to capitalize on the GOP's toxic environment in the state. But they need a strong candidate to do so, for McConnell isn't your average incumbent.

There obviously still is a high chance that Chuck Schumer manages to twist the arm of either Luallen or Stumbo -- see what happened in New Mexico -- but until that happens Kentucky looks much safer the McConnell. Democrats are now going to turn to attorney and veteran Andrew Horne, who also polled relatively well against McConnell, though I doubt that he has what it takes to bring down a huge name like McConnell's. Though stranger things have certainly happened.