Thursday poll: The Michigan question, continued, and Mississippi's racial puzzle
A number of state polls were released today, none more important than EPIC-MRA's Michigan poll. EPIC is the state's best pollster, and its numbers confirm the analysis I wrote 24 hours ago of the "Michigan question." No matter how unlikely a development given how hard the economic crisis has hit in Michigan, it does look like the state has joined Ohio and Pennsylvania as the holy trio of this year's battleground states:
The second important poll of the day is a national survey by Pew, whose polls are always noteworthy because of the detailed crosstabs and analysis that the institute provides:
A series of other polls was released from states that are less central to the fall campaign:
This is a tall order for Obama in any Southern states, but if it looks like he is on the path to making numbers move and results tighten in Mississippi, it could mean that he is in much better shape than expected in other states with a very large black population, especially Georgia and South Carolina. Both states are still safely in the McCain column, but the Obama campaign is planning massive registration efforts and we will soon be able to better assess whether there is any chance that numbers move in the Deep South.
- This poll shows McCain narrowly ahead of Obama 44% to 40%. He is largely leading among independents, 41% to 28%.
- However, in a match-up between an Obama/Clinton ticket and a McCain/Romney ticket, the Democrats shoot up to lead 51% to 44%.
The second important poll of the day is a national survey by Pew, whose polls are always noteworthy because of the detailed crosstabs and analysis that the institute provides:
- Clinton is ahead of McCain 48% to 44%, while Obama leads 47% to 44%, down from a 6% lead last month and a 7% lead in February. Obama and McCain are tied among independents, though the former led by 9% last month.
- Also, 44% say that McCain would continue Bush's policies, versus 45% who say that he will not. Obama is viewed as more capable on the economy, while the two are within the margin of error on Iraq.
A series of other polls was released from states that are less central to the fall campaign:
- In Kansas, SUSA found McCain leading 49% to 39%, which is actually a very respectable showing for Obama in a staunchly red state. SUSA also tried some VP match-ups, but Governor Sibelius does not particularly help Obama. The closest he gets is a 2% loss if McCain chooses Pawlenty and he chooses Edwards.
- In New York, Rasmussen finds both Democrats crushing McCain, though Obama's margin is a bit inferior to Clinton's. He leads 52% to 33% while she trounces McCain 59% to 29%. Obama's favorability raitng (64%) is superior to Clinton's (55%) and McCain's (44%).
- No surprises in Alabama, where Rasmussen finds McCain leading Clinton 54% to 34% and Obama 60% to 32%.
- Finally, a last Rasmussen poll from Mississippi finds surprisingly tight results: McCain is ahead of Clinton 48% to 38% and leads Obama 50% to 44%. McCain's favorability rating (55%) is superior to Clinton's (33%) and Obama's (44%).
This is a tall order for Obama in any Southern states, but if it looks like he is on the path to making numbers move and results tighten in Mississippi, it could mean that he is in much better shape than expected in other states with a very large black population, especially Georgia and South Carolina. Both states are still safely in the McCain column, but the Obama campaign is planning massive registration efforts and we will soon be able to better assess whether there is any chance that numbers move in the Deep South.
Labels: AL-Pres, KS-Pres, MI-Pres, MS-Pres, Nat-Poll, NY-Pres
11 Comments:
However one feels about his candidacy, Obama's organization has clearly been superior, so there's every reason to think that they'll put together a deep team in southern states. If that's the case, then McCain has a real problem: the funding gap. Forcing him to spend money in the South, where it should be a walk-over, means that much less for states like MI, PA and OH. Maybe the RNC can close some of the funding gap, and 527s can help a bit, but it will still hurt. Obama doesn't have to worry about that - he's printing money, although the next quarterly report (this week-end?) will be interesting.
One other thought. Obama seems to be executing Dean's 50 state philosophy. While he is relying on volunteers, his campaign is also generating a large base of experienced young professionals with knowledge of and roots in the communities they're working in. I've worked with them, and they are really good. If Dean can retain any significant number of these folks on a more permanent basis, it will be a tremendous boost for the party.
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 02:56
Obama cannot win Mississipi (as well as other deeps south states with significant Black populations). The fact is that there is still more white people in these states and they vote in a way nearly as racial as blacks. That Obama is in single digits means that whites aren't going to for McCain as overwhelming as blacks are going for Obama, but it's still significant enough to keep him from winning. If Obama can't win working class white DEMOCRATS in KY and WV, there is no way he can win independents and GOPers in Mississipi.
On a plus note, while Obama will defintely lose the deep south, his presence on boosting black turnout will help down ballot blue dog dems in the south. In particular, I think that Musgrove can win MS thanks to Obama boosting black turnout, and candidates and incumbents in the deep south will strongly benefit from the increased black turnout Obama will bring out.
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 09:34
jaxx raxor,
I totally agree with your conclusions. Mississippi will be won by McCain. I think North Carolina and Virginia will be Obama's best chance in the South, even more so than Florida.
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 10:46
I agree with all the above, we are close enough to be competitive and force mac to defend his turf but not enough to win, maybe we can pull and upset in SC, but Mississippi no, I see the main battleground in CO,NM,Nevada, North Carolina,Virginia,Iowa is where the battle is going to be fought
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 13:06
I agree with Carlos, and I personally would add Ohio and Missouri to where the battle will be.
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 14:13
Yeah I agree with Carlos and Jim W. If Obama is going to win a southern state (not including my home state of Maryland which is technically below the Mason Dixon line)it will be Virginia. He may ave a chance in South Carolina, but he won't come close in any other southeastern state (this includes Florida, the old people there plus the delegate mess has made it unwinnable for Obama).
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 16:49
But even if he doesn't win the south, he can force McCain to have to fight like hell to retain the south. And we all see quite clearly which party has more cash on hand this time around...
By Statistikhengst, At 30 May, 2008 18:08
I think it's time for another taniel post on how Hillary could possibly still win if she sweeps the next primaries and blah,blah blah. It would be as funny as the ones back in March that pushed the the same line.
By Anonymous, At 30 May, 2008 18:58
louis vuitton, prada handbags, kate spade outlet, ray ban sunglasses, nike air max, jordan shoes, nike outlet, michael kors outlet, ray ban sunglasses, longchamp outlet, longchamp outlet, longchamp, tiffany jewelry, cheap oakley sunglasses, replica watches, oakley sunglasses, tory burch outlet, tiffany and co, oakley sunglasses, ugg boots, louis vuitton outlet, ray ban sunglasses, ugg boots, replica watches, louboutin outlet, louboutin shoes, michael kors outlet, nike air max, burberry, nike free, chanel handbags, ugg boots, ugg boots, michael kors outlet, christian louboutin outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton, polo ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet, oakley sunglasses, uggs on sale, michael kors, louis vuitton outlet, louboutin, gucci outlet, oakley sunglasses
By oakleyses, At 15 November, 2015 22:46
oakley pas cher, nike air max, true religion jeans, tn pas cher, coach outlet, nike blazer, vanessa bruno, north face, coach factory outlet, lacoste pas cher, coach outlet, true religion jeans, hollister, ray ban uk, nike free run uk, abercrombie and fitch, vans pas cher, north face, ralph lauren pas cher, nike air max, burberry, lululemon, air jordan pas cher, michael kors, true religion jeans, kate spade handbags, nike roshe, ralph lauren uk, nike roshe run, nike air max, louboutin pas cher, ray ban pas cher, new balance pas cher, michael kors, converse pas cher, coach purses, air max, hermes, sac longchamp, hogan, nike free, true religion outlet, timberland, air force, sac guess, longchamp pas cher, michael kors, hollister pas cher, mulberry, michael kors
By oakleyses, At 15 November, 2015 22:48
marc jacobs, doudoune canada goose, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, moncler, canada goose outlet, moncler, vans, converse, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, moncler, hollister, ugg boots uk, barbour jackets, gucci, bottes ugg, louis vuitton, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet, lancel, canada goose outlet, converse outlet, canada goose, pandora charms, barbour, canada goose, links of london, pandora jewelry, moncler outlet, coach outlet, moncler, pandora charms, replica watches, louis vuitton, canada goose, louis vuitton, nike air max, hollister, moncler, pandora jewelry, michael kors handbags, wedding dresses, ugg pas cher, swarovski, karen millen, juicy couture outlet, doke gabbana outlet, montre pas cher, canada goose uk, moncler, toms shoes, louis vuitton, ray ban
By oakleyses, At 15 November, 2015 22:52
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home