Presidential polls: Tracking the bounce

The expectation that Obama would enjoy a bounce after Clinton's concession had been set for months, with the McCain campaign trying to increase the pressure by publicly stating that it expects Obama to surge ahead as he is declared the Democratic nominee. We do not yet have enough polling data to determine how high Obama will rise but can certainly start monitoring the polls. For now, today's national polls find mixed results.

The two tracking polls have found Obama gaining since last Tuesday, when he clinched his party's nod. Both Rasmussen and Gallup find him leading by 6 percent (50% to 44% for the former, 48% to 42% for the latter). This margin is the largest Obama has achieved in Gallup's tracking poll. While this is a very favorable sign for Obama, it is worth noting that Democrats expect to see more of a bounce as the level which Obama will achieve will be regarded as a sort of ceiling. As the campaign gets settled in general election mode in the coming days and as the reality of Clinton's withdrawal sets in, we will see whether Obama can open up more of lead.

At the state level, five polls were released today -- none showing surprising results though we have some interesting findings:

• In South Carolina, a Rasmussen poll shows McCain to be leading 48% to 39%.
  

• In Wisconsin, the race is very tight with Obama edging out McCain 45% to 43%. A month ago, McCain led 47% to 43%.
  
• Both candidates have a high favorable rating here, with McCain posting a particularly strong 60%. Obama is at 55%.

• In New Jersey, Obama leads 48% to 39%. Rasmussen found McCain slightly ahead 46% to 45% in late March so this is a net progression for Obama though it places him where we expect him to be.
• Here again, the candidates have high favorability rating: 60% for Obama (36% very favorable) and 59% for McCain (though only 18% very favorable).

• In Texas, McCain is ahead 52% to 39%. A month ago, he was only leading by 5%. As I will soon write about, the Senate race has also dramatically swung towards the GOP, implying that there is a sampling difference between the two surveys.
  
• 38% of Texas have a very unfavorable view of the Illinois Senator.
  

• Finally, a poll from Indiana shows that McCain starts ahead, 47% to 38%, in a state Bush won by 20%.
  

Of these five states, only Wisconsin is rated as a toss-up in my latest electoral college ratings, a status that is confirmed by this poll. Some Democrats believe Obama should be stronger than previous Democrats in one of his most crucial primary victories, but his strength with Midwestern independents should help him put Minnesota out of play before Wisconsin and we should expect that the latter stay competitive to the end.

As for the four others, they are all states that Obama and McCain want to believe they can make competitive: The Democratic advantage in New Jersey has been diminishing and, though the state has not been kind to Republicans, McCain's strength among independents could help him in the Garden State. As for South Carolina, it should be the last of the Southern states where Obama wants to increase black turnout to fall (after NC and GA). In Texas, it is possible that Obama will choose to spend some resources to force the race into single-digits and force McCain to spend a lot more than he would want to defending a must-win state for the GOP.

Friday polls: Obama suffers WV blues, Cornyn struggles again

3 days after North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton is showing no sign of withdrawing from the race; no matter how low her chances to get the nomination (and Rasmussen has just announced that he will soon cease his tracking poll of the Democratic nomination race!), this means that we should pay attention to the upcoming primaries again. If Obama performs disastrously, it would put him on the defensive again in the final weeks of May, perhaps buying Clinton the time she needs to continue to June 3rd and embarrass the Illinois Senator.

This applies to Kentucky, of course, but also to West Virginia which votes in 4 days:

• A new ARG poll shows Clinton leading 66% to 23%. Obama fails to get 20% among white voters.
• An Orion Strategies poll with too large a margin an error finds a similar margin, with Clinton leading 63% to 23%.

We have long known that Obama's worst region was the Appalachians, as he lost by similar voting margins in the counties of Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina that border Kentucky and West Virginia; given the demographic determination of these elections, it doesn't appear there is much Obama will be able to do to avoid this large a defeat (to put things in perspective, only Arkansas has voted for Clinton by a bigger margin).

Meanwhile, we got a series of general election polls in the past two days. Keep those numbers in mind for they will serve to determine whether Obama gets a bump from his being proclaimed the presumptive nominee in the coming days and weeks:

• In Rasmussen's tracking, Obama leads McCain 47% to 44% (the first time he has led for consecutive days for two months) and Clinton leads 48% to 43%. In Gallup, Obama leads McCain by 1% and Clinton leads by 2%.

• UPDATE: How frustrating must today's Gallup numbers be for Hillary Clinton. Not only does Obama fail to pull away despite this being the third day after NC and IN, but Clinton has suddenly jumped up to a 48% to 44% lead against McCain (which I believe might be her biggest lead ever in Gallup tracking) while Obama leads 46% to 45%.
  

• A Rasmussen poll in Missouri, however, has McCain leading both Democrats. He has a 48% to 41% lead against Obama and 45% to 43% against Clinton. Last month, he led Obama by 12% and Clinton by 9% so this is actually quite an improvement for Democrats. Obama's favorability rating is only at 46% -- equal to Clinton's and much lower than McCain's.

• In Georgia, Rasmussen finds McCain comfortably leading both Democrats, 53% to 39% against Obama and 48% to 37% against Clinton.

• In Rasmussen's Wisconsin poll, McCain leads yet again -- this time in a blue state -- beating both Democrats 47% to 43%. This is a big boost for Clinton who led by 11% at the end of March. Obama's favorability rating -- at 51% -- is lower than McCain's (58%). Note that McCain's "very favorable" rating is much lower (only 14%), suggesting that his support is soft.

• A Research 2000 poll from Texas, meanwhile, does not confirm how tight Rasmussen had found the race last week (both Democrats within single-digits) but the race is not as much of a blowout as in past cycles: McCain leads Obama 52% to 39% and Clinton 53% to 38%.

• Finally, Hotline published its latest national poll and finds Clinton leading McCain 46% to 43% and Obama ahead 47% to 43%. McCain leads both Democrats by double-digits among independents, a troubling sign, but both Democrats have markedly improved their showing since the end of March when they both trailed. Proving how much McCain overperforms, Democrats lead the generic presidential ballot by 14% (15% among independens).
  

Democrats were used to leading Republican candidates in a whole list of red states back in 2007... until John McCain became the nominee. Trailing in both Wisconsin and Missouri is not a good place to start for Democrats considering they are supposed to be the heavy favorites to win this year's election. The question then is how these numbers will evolve in the coming weeks. Will Obama's becoming the presumptive nominee and the media's round of celebration boost his numbers, in a traditional post-victory popularity boost? Will Clinton's staying in the race blunt the impact of that?

Finally, a few very interesting down-the-ballot polls:

• Research 2000 polled the Texas Senate race and found a 47% to 43% lead for Senator Cornyn versus state Senator Noriega. Back in September, Cornyn was leading by 16%.
• This is the same margin of a Rasmussen poll released a few days ago.
  

• Meanwhile, Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon is opening a large lead against both his Republican rivals for the open gubernatorial race. He is leading state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and congressman Kenny Hulshof 51% to 35%.
  

Both of these polls are great news for Democrats. Missouri is the most vulnerable gubernatorial seat and Nixon has basically been running since 2004. Governor Blunt's surprise retirement actually gave the GOP a bit more hope but it looks like Nixon could put this away quickly. As for Texas, the fact that two polls within one week show this tight a race is truly shocking and suggests that we were wrong to completely overlook this state in assessments of this year's Senate picture. Noriega always had the potential to make the race competitive but TX-Sen was a second-to-third tier race at best: Too big and conservative a state, too well-funded an incumbent, not a well-known enough challenger. We shall know in the coming weeks if the DSCC can count on expanding the map to the Lone Star State.

Poll round-up: Both NC and IN tightening in last hours

In many latest post, I explained that tomorrow's results will be determined the class and racial breakdown of the electorate. As such, it is more important than ever to understand that the trend lines of these latest Democratic polls are more important than the raw numbers insofar as most (though not all) pollsters project a turnout model and weigh the results accordingly; they cannot help us determine what proportion of the electorate blue-collar voters or African-Americans will end up making.

That said, on to the polls -- and I will do my best to provide the sample's breakdown when it is available. First up, Indiana where Zogby remains the only pollster to show Obama ahead:

• First, SUSA finds Clinton up double-digits, 54% to 42%. Last week, Clinton was ahead by 9%.
  
• As always, Clinton's lead is much bigger among registered Democrats (69% of the sample): she is ahead by 19%. Women only make up 52% of this sample though they are sure to be a much stronger force tomorrow (women typically make up 57% to 59% of the electorate of a Democratic primary).
  

• In Zogby's final tracking, Obama maintains a 2% lead for the third day in a row. The two candidates are tied among women -- a finding other polls disagree with.

• Suffolk, meanwhile, finds Clinton up 6 percent, 49% to 43%. Only 61% of the electorate is made up of registered Democrat, a crucial difference with SUSA.

• PPP finds a close race as well, with Clinton's lead diminishing to a 5 percent margin, 51% to 46%. That's a 3% improvement for Obama.

• Insider Advantage shows a similar tightening, with Clinton's 7% lead last week down to 4%; she leads 48% to 44%.
  

North Carolina, meanwhile, stays strong for Obama though there is disagreement on the margin:

• SUSA finds Obama to be leading 50% to 45%; this is the same margin as last week.
  
• SUSA projects that 32% of the electorate will be African-American; among whites, Clinton gets an impressive 63%.

• Zogby's final tracking shows Obama expanding his lead to a 51% to 37% margin.
  
• Zogby also predicts that the black vote will make up 32% of the electorate; in more good news for Obama, he only gets 79% of the black vote in this poll, with Clinton at her usual 11%. The remaining undecided black voters are likely to almost all break towards Obama.
  

• PPP's final poll shows Clinton tightening the race for the second week in a row but she still trails by 10%, 53% to 43%. She was trailing by 25% two weeks ago and by 12% last week.
  
• PPP projects 35% of the electorate to be black; Clinton gets 60% among whites.

• Insider Advantage, finally, finds the race much tighter than other institutes; it has Obama ahead by 3%. Its most recent poll had him leading by 5% -- but keep in mind that IA was hte only group to find Clinton narrowly ahead early last week.
• IA shows Clinton with 58% of the white vote but also with 17% of the black vote. If that is at all confirmed tomorrow, it would be a huge gain for Clinton, and one that would surely lead her to a solid result overall.

There is the potential for both candidates to get what they need out of tomorrow: SUSA's poll have Clinton up double-digits in Indiana and trailing by low single-digits in North Carolina, exactly where she needs to be to score a credible victory. If Zogby's findings and turnout model is vindicated, however, it would be very difficult for Clinton to stay in the race. Other polls fall somewhere in between. All in all, the fact that both races are tightening is better news for Obama who is happy with the status-quo being maintained. He does not need to change the narrative of the race. (We will discuss all of this in more detail tomorrow.)

However, there is a risk to Obama failing to close the deal once again. If Clinton survives tomorrow's votes, she can look forward to a very good week in West Virginia:

• Rasmussen's latest poll, released today, has Clinton up 56% to 27%. That's actually a 1% improvement from a poll taken in mid-March.

Clinton's margin is even stronger in Kentucky, which votes on May 20th. West Virginia and Kentucky are part of Obama's worst region in the country, the Appalachians. Clinton typically wins more than 2:1 in districts of that region and she can expect much more attention to be turned to her strength among these voters if she is alive after tomorrow.

Also today, other general election polls found interesting results:

• The latest national AP/Ipsos poll shows Clinton opening up a 47% to 40% lead against Obama among Democratic voters. In the general election, both lead McCain. Clinton is ahead 47% to 42% while Obama leads 46% to 42%. This is the AP's second poll in a week -- quite unexpectedly.
  

• The USA Today/Gallup poll also finds Clinton leading 51% to 44%; but in the general, McCain is ahead of both Republicans, 3% against Clinton and 1% against Obama, thus confirming that yesterday's NYT/CBS poll should not be taken to signify that Democrats have opened a big lead.

• Finally, a general election poll from Texas finds a competitive race! Rasmussen finds Obama trailing McCain 48% to 43% and Clinton behind 49% to 43%. This actually confirms a SUSA poll from late February that had McCain stuck in single-digits against both Democrats.
• As always, it is fascinating to see how both Democrats arrive at similar numbers by putting together two completely different coalitions. Clinton trails by 12% among men, Obama leads by 2%; Clinton leads by 1% among women, Obama trails by 12%. Among Democrats, Clinton gets 80% but Obama 69%, a poor showing he compensates with stronger numbers among registered Republicans.
  

Just as some polls suggest McCain has the potential to dealing a terrible blow to Democrats by keeping New York competitive, having to seriously contest Texas and pour resources and time here would be a horrifying development for the GOP. The biggest Republican state in the country, Texas has also been one of the most reliable in recent cycles. But with the share of Hispanic vote increasing, Democrats are hopeful they can tighten the partisan gap in the state -- though few people expect (expected?) Texas to tighten this year.

General election surveys diverge, show Texas potentially competitive

A few general election polls were released today, some of which contradict the idea that Obama is opening up a clear and consistent electability gap. And overall, the surveys suggest the Democrats might be entering the general election phase with a slight advantage.

• First, the New York Times survey shows Obama crushing McCain nationally -- 50% to 38% -- while Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%.


• AP-Ipsos also gives an advantage to Democrats: Obama is ahead 48% to 39%, while Clinton is up 46% to 41%.


• Finally, Rasmussen's daily tracking poll shows a reversal: After weeks of Obama running much strongly than Clinton, they now run roughly even, Obama losing to McCain 47% to 43% and Clinton 47% to 44%.

• Update: The LA Times/Bloomberg poll came out as well tonight, showing McCain ahead of both Clinton (by 6 points) and Obama (by 2). The national polls are not agreeing at all on the state of the race, pointing to how fluid the campaign is (understandably given that the primaries are not even over).
  

The most surprising survey comes from SUSA's poll from Texas, known as one of the most reliably Republican states in the country:

• McCain leads both Democrats by single-digits: 49% to 43% against Clinton, 49% to 41% against Obama.
• Obama does better among African-American voters (88% versus 74%) but Hillary does much better among Hispanics (a 17% gap rather than a 6% gap).

Texas is never put on the list of swing states, and it is still very unlikely that McCain will really tremble. Not to mention that the Democratic nominee will not need Texas to get to the White House. But it is easy to overstate Republicans' Texan dominance. After all, Bush did win the state by huge margins (61-38 in 2004), but some of that edge came from the fact that Texas was Bush's home state. After all, Texas already had a minority white population by the 2000 census, so strong numbers among blacks and Latinos could keep the Democrat at a strong level. And while a Democratic win is very unlikely, a challenge could force McCain to spend time and valuable resources defending the Lone Star State (just as Bush unsuccessfully tried to force Gore to defend California in the closing weeks of 2000).