Thursday polls: Color Arkansas red

The first general-election poll from Arkansas last summer made it clear that this would be the one state which would undoubtedly go from "Safe Democratic" to "Safe Republican" depending on the identity of the Democratic nominee. Arkansas is voting like Hillary Clinton's home-state, more so than New York. It gave her 70% of its vote in the primary and a new general election poll confirms that she would be in a strong position to carry it in November:

• Rasmussen shows Clinton leading McCain 53% to 39% in this red state. McCain, however, leads Obama 57% to 33%, a 38 percent gap.
• Clinton's favorablility rating is at 60%, including 35% who have a very favorable view of her (14% for McCain).
  

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, it looks like we can color Arkansas red (perhaps it could get competitive if he chooses Hillary or Clark as his vice-president?). But two new polls from Washington and Iowa confirm that those are two states in which Obama is well positioned, as they have been two states in which most polls show him faring considerably better:

• In Washington State, SUSA shows Obama leading McCain 54% to 42%. Clinton is ahead 49% to 45%. Obama is polling better among registered Republicans and independents. The margins are roughly what they were a month ago.
  

• In Iowa, Rasmussen finds a tight race within the margin of error for both candidates. Clinton trails McCain 45% to 42% and Obama leads 44% to 42%. Both races have tightened since last month.

McCain is looking to make Washington and Oregon competitive despite both states voting against Bush twice. Judging by this poll it will be difficult for him to do so because Obama has a firm grasp among the registered Democrat vote -- that is not the case in every state, so McCain would have more potential success by concentrating on purple/blue state where Obama is weak among registered Dems (starting with Florida, the South and some places in the Midwest; but not the West).

Finally, national general election polls continue showing a slight edge for Democrats:

• Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain 47% to 40%; Clinton is ahead 46% to 41%.
• POS/GQR finds Clinton trailing by 1% and Obama leading 48% to 43%.
• An ABC News/Washington Post poll has Clinton leading 49% to 46% and Obama ahead 51% to 44%.
• Gallup, however, finds Obama and McCain tied at 45% while Clinton is leading 48% to 45%.

It will be interesting to see whether national pollsters decide to not include Clinton in a poll before she drops out. My guess is that they will continue including her for fear of being criticized, but we'll keep an eye on that too. By the way, it is always remarkable to see McCain competitive at all in some of these polls considering the internal numbers many of the polls include and that reveal just how awful an environment Republicans are facing in the fall. It does look like only McCain could have made this tight -- and the question now is whether he can save anything for the GOP in down-the-ballot races.