NV and AR polls: All eyes on the Southwest, and Southern hopes rest on increased turnout

The hottest battleground of this general election will no doubt be the Southwest, not necessarily because of the 19 electoral votes that are stake there in this election but what the region might represent in the future. A fastest-growing area, the Southwest is bound to pick up congressional seats and thus electoral votes at the start of the next decade, just in time for the next presidential election.

Along with Colorado and New Mexico, Nevada completes the Southwestern trio. Flipping these three states alone would be enough for Obama to get to the White House if he also carries all the states won by Kerry in 2004. Arizona would have surely been added to the list had McCain not won the GOP nomination but the state's Senator should hold on to his home-state despite some murmurs that he has problems with Arizona's conservative base (he did, after all, only receive 48% in the Super Tuesday primary here).

All three states remain too close-too-call. That alone is a Democratic victory in Colorado, which was considered solidly red in 2004 and clearly leaning Republican four years ago, but it is not that much of a change in Nevada and New Mexico, the latter having hosted two of the tightest results in 2000 and 2004. This alone should frustrate Democrats, some of whom are confident that the growing Hispanic population will pave the way for significant gains. In fact, Nevada was already deemed a disappointment four years ago as President Bush won despite being on the wrong side of what was described as the one issue that mattered in state politics, Yucca Mountain.

A new poll released today by respected polling outfit Mason-Dixon finds yet another close race:

• John McCain edges out Barack Obama within the margin of error, 44% to 42%.
  
• Among Hispanics -- a constituency among which McCain believes he can reduce the margin a bit -- the Republican is crushed 56% to 28%.
  

Both parties know the cost of not contesting the Southwest would be disastrous in the long-term, and that alone should guarantee that neither candidate takes a commanding lead in Nevada. Just as in 2004, this one should go down the wire.

In Arkansas, meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds somewhat of a shift:

• John McCain leads 48% to 39%. A month ago, however, Obama trailed by 24%, a result Rasmussen interprets as a "Clinton bump" in the state the former candidate used to call home.
• Obama has a decent favorability rating but also a very high proportion of respondents (36%) who have a "very unfavorable" impression of him.
  

Hillary Clinton led by 14% in last month's Rasmussen poll, a 38% gap with Obama's showing. This is one state that Clinton would have been almost assured of carrying while Obama is expected to durably struggle, though a bump of the size Obama has gotten here has to satisfy the Democrat's campaign. Not only do such numbers allow them to claim that the party is now uniting and that former Clinton supporters are lining up behind their nominee but it also represents new data to tout Obama's potential in Southern states, a theme the Illinois Senator has evoked for months now.

It is worth noting, however, what Obama's high unfavorability rating tells us about the state of the general election in Southern states, as Obama's ability to close to gap to a tighter-than-expected margin despite coming in with higher unfavorables is a phenomenon that we have observed in other Southern states as well. This suggests that Obama might be reaching the low 40s (a level Kerry struggled to reach) and trailing by single-digits, but it will be very difficult for him to reach much higher than that as much of the remaining electorate really does not want to vote for him. That is not surprising in states in which the political fault lines are dictated by racial polarization (Kerry did not get 20% of the white vote in Mississippi!).

If Obama has room to grow beyond trailing by high single-digits or low double-digits (such margins would already be great improvements and would guarantee a strong popular vote showing, but they would not get him any closer to the White House), he will not find it in the usual pool of voters and in convincing swing voters but will have to expand the pool of voters and increase turnout among the Democrats' southern base, African-Americans. Any election that depends entirely on unpredictable pattern turnouts is notoriously difficult to poll (see the Iowa caucuses), so keep these factors in mind in the coming months.

Thursday polls: Color Arkansas red

The first general-election poll from Arkansas last summer made it clear that this would be the one state which would undoubtedly go from "Safe Democratic" to "Safe Republican" depending on the identity of the Democratic nominee. Arkansas is voting like Hillary Clinton's home-state, more so than New York. It gave her 70% of its vote in the primary and a new general election poll confirms that she would be in a strong position to carry it in November:

• Rasmussen shows Clinton leading McCain 53% to 39% in this red state. McCain, however, leads Obama 57% to 33%, a 38 percent gap.
• Clinton's favorablility rating is at 60%, including 35% who have a very favorable view of her (14% for McCain).
  

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, it looks like we can color Arkansas red (perhaps it could get competitive if he chooses Hillary or Clark as his vice-president?). But two new polls from Washington and Iowa confirm that those are two states in which Obama is well positioned, as they have been two states in which most polls show him faring considerably better:

• In Washington State, SUSA shows Obama leading McCain 54% to 42%. Clinton is ahead 49% to 45%. Obama is polling better among registered Republicans and independents. The margins are roughly what they were a month ago.
  

• In Iowa, Rasmussen finds a tight race within the margin of error for both candidates. Clinton trails McCain 45% to 42% and Obama leads 44% to 42%. Both races have tightened since last month.

McCain is looking to make Washington and Oregon competitive despite both states voting against Bush twice. Judging by this poll it will be difficult for him to do so because Obama has a firm grasp among the registered Democrat vote -- that is not the case in every state, so McCain would have more potential success by concentrating on purple/blue state where Obama is weak among registered Dems (starting with Florida, the South and some places in the Midwest; but not the West).

Finally, national general election polls continue showing a slight edge for Democrats:

• Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain 47% to 40%; Clinton is ahead 46% to 41%.
• POS/GQR finds Clinton trailing by 1% and Obama leading 48% to 43%.
• An ABC News/Washington Post poll has Clinton leading 49% to 46% and Obama ahead 51% to 44%.
• Gallup, however, finds Obama and McCain tied at 45% while Clinton is leading 48% to 45%.

It will be interesting to see whether national pollsters decide to not include Clinton in a poll before she drops out. My guess is that they will continue including her for fear of being criticized, but we'll keep an eye on that too. By the way, it is always remarkable to see McCain competitive at all in some of these polls considering the internal numbers many of the polls include and that reveal just how awful an environment Republicans are facing in the fall. It does look like only McCain could have made this tight -- and the question now is whether he can save anything for the GOP in down-the-ballot races.

Saturday polls: The Wright question

Saturdays rarely see a lot of polling released, and today was no exception. Particularly interesting, however, is the question of the impact the week-long focus on Wright had on Obama's poll numbers. And the two tracking polls tell us slightly opposing stories:

• Gallup shows that Obama has been making up the ground he lost over the past week, suggesting that the race speech could have had the desired effect. Obama is leading Clinton 48% to 45% nationally, the first time he has retaken the lead in 5 days. Obama has been improving his standing over the past 3 days -- and that followed 5 days of Clinton improving her position every day. These trendlines look to be clearly correlated to the evolution of Wright.

• Meanwhile, the Rasmussen daily tracking shows Clinton up 46% to 44% -- and gaining ground for each of the past 4 days. Obama led Clinton by 8% before Wright.

The two institutes show Democrats starting to make up some of the lost ground to McCain. For Gallup, McCain leads both Democrats by 2%, while Rasmussen shows McCain leading Clinton 49% to 43% (which is, believe it or not, a trendline in Clinton's favor) and up 49% to 41% on Obama. A new Fox News poll also has some interesting data:

• It shows Clinton leading McCain 46% to 43% but McCain edging out Obama 44% to 43%.

It's safer to say that Clinton has recovered from her late February collapse than that Obama is particularly hurting. Fox also asked questions relating to Wright and found that 72% were familiar with comments made by the Reverend, and only 24% thought that Obama shared the opinions of his pastor (versus 57%).

Finally, Rasmussen released two general election polls today from Southern states, and confirmed Republican dominance in that region:

• In Georgia, McCain leads Obama 53% to 40% and Clinton 54% to 34%.
• In Arkansas, McCain leads Clinton 50% to 43% and Obama 59% to 30%.

The numbers out of Arkansas are actually a bit surprising as this is the first poll we have seen that has Clinton trailing in her former home state. A Rasmussen poll taken over the summer, the SUSA poll from late February and a University of Arkansas poll last week showed Clinton ahead against Republicans (for the first) and McCain (for the two latter). The Univ of Arkansas survey had her leading 51% to 36%. Rasmussen's numbers merely confirm that Obama will have little chance in this state, for if even Clinton isn't clearly ahead it's unlikely Arkansas is ready to go back to his Democratic roots this year.

Friday polls: General election polls show McCain up in Ohio, down in California

For all the electability talk, the one state which will undoubtedly go from "lean Democrat" to "lean Republican" depending on the identity of the Democratic nominee is... Arkansas! Clinton would be favored to carry the state's 6 electoral votes, and Obama would start as the clear underdog. This is obviously due first and foremost to Clinton's home-state advantage, more than to her strength, but the importance of 6 electoral votes (and in an unlikely place like Arkansas) should not be understated. We all know where 6 electoral votes would have gotten Gore...

The University of Central Arkansas released a general poll yesterday that confirmed this disparity -- also observed in SUSA's survey last week:

• Clinton is leading McCain 51% to 36%, while McCain leads Obama 43% to 27%.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two surveys from the very crucial states of Ohio and California. After a string of Pennsylvania polls showing McCain leading Clinton and Obama, Democrats would have liked some good news out of Ohio, but it's not for today:

• McCain is leading both Democrats 46% to 40%. Obama is slightly stronger among men and Clinton among women.

• In California, at least, both Democrats are ahead but with differing margins: Clinton is leading by 7% only, 46% to 39%, while Obama gets more than double a lead: 53% to 38%.

In the day's last poll news, Gallup's tracking poll has both match-ups completely tied nationally... It can't get much tighter than that.

Morning polls: Arkansas could go blue, and Huckabee grabs a nation lead

• Arkansas a prime battleground

Democrats are very competitive in Arkansas, Bill Clinton's former home-state:

• Mike Huckabee, the state's Governor until 2006, grabs 48% to Clinton's 42%. He crushes Obama 54% to 35%.
• Both Democrats lead against Romney and Giuliani. Clinton demolishes Giuliani 49% to 35% and 48% to 34% against Romney. Barack Obama leads only 42% to 39% against Rudy Giuliani.

Arkansas went for Bush twice but by smaller margins than people might remember: nine points in 2004 and only five in 2000 (yes that is right, if Gore had won Arkansas he would have won the presidency). Nonetheless, it is surprising to see both Obama and Clinton competitive here, as the previous poll that had Clinton leading had been attributed to the fact that the Clintons are from Arkansas. Now that Obama leads Rudy at all, it clearly puts Arkansas in the list of battleground states.

• Rasmussen tracks some shocking national numbers

Rasmussen releases national tracking numbers every day, and I clearly choose to skip reporting most of them. But the numbers today are truly shocking in both the GOP and Democratic race.

• In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is now ahead with 20%, with Giuliani at 17%. McCain and Romney are at 13%, with Thompson at 10%.
• In the Democratic race, Clinton has sunk to 34%, 10 points ahead of Obama at 24%. Edwards gets 16%.

These are the lowest total ever recorded by Rasmussen since it started releasing these in July for both Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton... This is also the first national poll that has Mike Huckabee ahead. What Romney failed to do in months of campaigning Huckabee has done within a week. The last month of campaigning is turning out to be much more fascinating than anyone expected it to be.

• Romney at least keeps a massive lead in New Hampshire

The WaPo/ABC's latest New Hampshire poll has Mitt Romney far ahead at 37%, folowed by McCain at 20%, Giuliani at 16% and Huckabee at 9%. Ron Paul is at 8%.

Romney has built enough of a lead to at least hope he will not lose it overnight if he fades in Iowa. But his lead is clearly very weak: A majority of Romney voters say they could change their mind, and McCain has placed himself in an ideal position to overtake Romney if that were to happen. Imagine that, Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins New Hampshire. Who would have thought that could happen a few weeks ago only?