In last day of campaigning, Clinton appears to have stopped the bleeding

Polls in Ohio and Texas will open in less than 24 hours in Ohio and Texas (and Rhode Island and Vermont, not that anyone really cares at this point) and after showing a steady movement away from Hillary Clinton over the past two weeks, the latest surveys suggest that Clinton might have stopped the bleeding and perhaps even regained some of the lost ground.

Naturally, not all polls agree -- and whatever bump some of them are registering is very slight, and in no way guarantees that Clinton will have a good day tomorrow. The point here isn't that Clinton is strengthening her position but that her downward spiral in polls might have stopped, at least in Ohio.

• First, Rasmussen: In Ohio, it shows Clinton up 50% to 44%, an uptick from the previous poll which had her up by 2% only.
• Similarly in Texas, Obama now has a 1% edge (48% to 47%) but he was up 4% in the previous poll -- and he was gaining ground in every poll.


• Public Policy Polling shows similar improvement for Clinton: In Texas, Clinton is now leading 50% to 44% -- up from a 48% tie in the previous poll. She does so by remaining very strong among Hispanics (67%) and regaining strength among white voters (58%).
• In Ohio, PPP shows Clinton up 51% to 42% -- a marked improvement from her previous 50-46 lead.


• The University of Cincinnati survey shows the same margin in Ohio, with Clinton up 51% to 42%.


• Next comes SUSA's Ohio poll, which has Clinton leading 54% to 44%, fueled by a 27% lead among women. Clinton is ahead among those who have already voted by 13%. The trendline of the SUSA poll is very interesting: Clinton had a 17% lead, then a 9% lead, then a 6% lead -- and has now reverse this decline.
• In Texas, SUSA shows Obama up 1 point 49% to 48% -- but just as in Rasmussen's, it is Clinton that has slightly improved, up from a 4% deficit last week. SUSA estimates that half of the electorate has voted early, and puts Clinton up 2% among early voters. She is leading the Hispanic vote with 64%.
  


• Quinnipiac shows Clinton up 49% to 45% in Ohio, which is a sharp decline from her 11% lead last week (she was leading by 21% two weeks ago). But the poll was in the field starting on Wednesday, so it is unlikely to register any Clinton stabilization over the past few days. She is enjoying a 32% point gender gap, and is up 32% among white women.


• Worth noting that the ARG polls that I reported yesterday also had good movement for Clinton, who progressed by 2% in Ohio and 7% in Texas.


• That leaves us with Zogby, which shows Obama strengthening his positions! He is ahead 47% to 44% in Texas, and Zogby tells us to look at East Texas tomorrow.
• In Ohio, Zogby shows Obama taking the lead for the first time, 47% to 45%. I believe this might be the first survey by any polling group to show Obama ahead.

If Clinton confirms tomorrow that she has stabilized herself and manages to win comfortably in Ohio and get a victory in Texas, Obama will have lost a huge opportunity to put an end to the Democratic contest. He would still remain the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination given how difficult the math of a Clinton comeback looks, but the next context in which Obama would have an opportunity to get Clinton out of the race is... Pennsylvania, on April 22nd. And let's not forget that he might be in for expensive and grueling races in Florida and Michigan if the DNC agrees to do-overs.

One last poll on this Monday morning, as Rasmussen released a survey for New Jersey's general election:

• Obama loses against McCain, 45% to 43%, while Hillary crushes him 50% to 39%.

This gets us back to the old pattern of Clinton doing significantly better than her rival in the Northeast, with McCain waging strong contests in these must-win states for Democrats. She also used to poll much better in Southern states but Obama put an end to that pattern in the past few weeks.

Update: Here's one more poll bringing good news to Clinton, as she is up 52% to 40% in the Suffolk poll from Ohio.