Presidential polls coming in from all directions

I have been posting more slowly than usual the past 24 hours, and as a result I am left with a deluge of great polls that I have not yet talked about. So here's my best comprehensive attempt to list this morning's polls -- and there are a lot to list since many institutes decided to just deliver lots of state numbers today.

  • Gallup's national numbers
I had already posted the Republican primary numbers yesterday to indicate Huckabee's stalling. Gallup also came out with general election numbers and a survey from the Democratic primary nationally:

  • Among Democrats, Clinton comes in at 45% followed by Obama at 27%and Edwards at 15%. This is an improvement for Hillary who stood at 39% two weeks ago.

  • In the general election, Clinton and Obama win all 6 match-ups. But Barack is much stronger than Hillary.
  • Against Giuliani, Clinton wins 49-48 and Obama 51-45. Against Huckabee, it's 53-44 Clinton and 53-42 Obama. And against Romney, it's 52-46 Clinton only, and 57-39 Obama.
I don't much faith in the electability difference here, as we could point to many polls that have the reverse effect nationally (though, as I have explained before, there is more consistency in finding Obama stronger in the West and Clinton in the South). The bottom line is that Democrats are starting ahead in this election, but cleraly not by huge margins.

  • Rasmussen's flurry of state polls: OH, MO and NJ
Rasmussen came out with a few great presidential polls this morning:

  • In Ohio, Republicans have leads but it's all within the margin of error.Giuliani is ahead of Clinton 44% to 42% and of Obama 43% to 40%. Clinton and Romney are tiedat 43%.
  • But it's Huckabee who runs best: 44% to 40% against Hillary, and 45% to 39% against Obama.

  • In Missouri, Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 45% to 39%, and Obama leads by 1%. But both Democrats lose against Huckabee, 45% to 43% for Clinton and 45% to 41% for Hillary.
  • The explanation: Giuliani's favorability rating is the lowest of the four candidates, at 45%, under Clinton and Obama who are at 52 and 51%. What is happening to Rudy Giuliani in the heartland?

  • Finally in New Jersey, Clinton is strong but Obama has difficulty putting Giuliani away: Clinton leads Rudy 50% to 37%, but Obama is statistically tied 42% to 41%. This is coherent with many other polls we have seen that Rudy would make the Tri-State area competitive if the Democratic candidate is not Clinton.
  • Both candidates comfortably lead Huckabee: 49% to 30% for Obama and 51% to 34% for Clinton.
None of these numbers are very shocking: Missouri and Ohio are close, and New Jersey clearly leans Democratic. Missouri's slight Democratic lean in most polls taken this fall is probably the biggest surprise, as the GOP was boasting of having put the state away in past cycles -- clearly that is not the case, and Democrats have a great chance of winning the state. After all, they certainly have electoral college scenarios in which they get to a majority with Missouri and without Ohio.

  • PPP: North Carolina is competitive
Public Policy Polling came out with a general election and a Senate poll out of North Carolina today:
  • In the presidential race, John Edwards is the only Democrat tobeat Republicans in his home state: He beats Giuliani 48% to 43%, Huckabee 50% to 43%, and demolishes Romney 52% to 40%./li>/li>
  • Giuliani leads Clinton 46% to 39% and Obama 46% to 43%. Huckabee leads Clinton 46% to 42% and Obama 47% to 42%. And Romney leads Clinton 46-42 and Obama 45-42%.
In the presidential race, Clinton had come in stronger in a previous North Carolina poll, but the Democrats are clearly running stronger in the South than they were 4 years ago. Edwards did not do much for Kerry in 2004, so it's interesting that polls are finding him this much stronger today.

  • SUSA delivers too: IA and MN
SUSA also came out with two state polls from Iowa and from Minnesota:

  • In Iowa, Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 42%, Romney 48% to 45%. She's only up 46-45 against Huck and behind 46-45 against McCain.
  • Obama runs much much better than Clinton: 55% to 36% against Rudy, 51-39 against Romney, 52-39 against Huck, and 51-39 against McCain.

  • In Minnesota, it's Clinton who runs much much better: She demolishes Giuliani 53-40, Romney 58-36, Huck 53-41. Her lead is within single-digits only against McCain, but still far ahead 51% to 43%.
  • Obama, on the other hand, trails Giuliani 48% to 44% and McCain 50% to 41%. He is timidly ahead of Romney 48% to 42% and Huck 47% to 42%.
This is the second month in a row that SUSA shows Obama miles ahead of Clinton in Iowa -- which could be significant given that it is the state in which Obama is the best known at this point after months of caucus campaigning. But by that token, Iowa has always been the state where Clinton has had the most difficulty in the primary campaign, which could also account for her weakness in the general election.

And don't forget that IA went red by a point or two in 04 and MN went blue by a small margin; but both states have long histories of being Democratic. So it looks like 2008 could see them both return solidly to the blue column -- though depending on the candidates the GOP can hope to make them competitive.

Labels: , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home