More polls, with a bunch of general election numbers

First, news came today that Obama has won his eleventh contest in a row, that of the Democrats Abroad, 66% to 33%. Obama narrowly won Mexico and Clinton narrowly won Israel; Western Europe went big for Obama. That gives Obama 2.5 delegates to Clinton's 2 (there were 9 delegates at stake, and they split 5-4, but each only has half-a-vote at the convention, thereby complicating matters with half delegates).

Meanwhile, ABC/Washington Post just came out with two polls from Ohio and Texas, confirming that the trendlines are not favoring Clinton at all and that Obama has a good chance of taking one -- if not both -- of these states, likely putting an end then to the Democratic contest. The fact that Texas in particular is so close (as it is in three polls released earlier this afternoon that I blogged about here) makes tonight's and next week's debates that much more important:

  • In Texas, Clinton edges out Obama 48% to 47%. No internals are provided, but the WaPo does specify that Latinos are powering Clinton through here.
  • In Ohio, Clinton stays more comfortably ahead, 50% to 43%.
These numbers speak for themselves, and my last post already delves into the primary and the dynamics in the run-up to March 4th; so I am going to jump straight to the latest general election numbers, for we have a few from different pollsters:

  • Firs, a poll from New York. SUSA shows Clinton leading McCain by 11%, 52% to 41%; but it is Obama who fares best -- 57% to 36%. Most Northeast polls have usually shown Obama weaker than Clinton, and it is obviously a surprise to see the New York Senator being outperformed in her home state.

  • In Pennsylvania, things are too close for comfort for both Democrats in a must-win state. That same Franklin & Marshall College survey that showed Clinton ahead of Obama in the primary this morning also released general election numbers: Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%, and McCain is edging out Obama 44% to 43%.
  • SUSA also released a poll from Kansas that shows the state semi-competitive if Obama is the candidate, as he trails McCain 50% to 44%. Clinton is trounced, 59% to 35%. In SUSA's January Kansas poll, Clinton trailed by 13% and Obama by 14% -- so the two are stuck in very divergent trendlines.
  • Next we have two polls from Rasmussen, the first of which comes from Virginia, where McCain holds off both Clinton (51% to 41%) and Obama (49% to 44%). SUSA's Virginia poll the other day had Obama slightly ahead.
  • In Iowa, meanwhile, Obama is barely ahead, 44% to 41%, while Hillary is far behind, 47% to 37%.
  • Finally, the Quinnipiac poll from New Jersey has both Democrats leading McCain in single-digits, 47% to 41% for Hillary, 46% to 39% for Obama.
This New Jersey poll is a perfect summary of the strength of the two candidates and what they each bring to a match-up against McCain. Clinton does better among Democrats (80-10, versus 72-15 for Obama); Obama does better among independents (leading 47-38, while Clinton trails 44-43) and African-Americans (87-6 versus 75-13 for Clinton).

Both candidates would have to work really hard to complete this coalition and to win the race, and their weakest points have interestingly enough been groups among which they are also weak in the primary, so this is not just a small problem they can expect to get resolved in a few days.

Also worth noting is how clearly Obama has gone up in the past month and Clinton has gone down, for example in the Kansas poll that has Obama gaining 7% and Clinton went down 14%. The same trend is obvious in many surveys and in national trackings like Rasmussen's daily numbers.

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