Polls: Dems get good presidential day, GOP enjoys good Senate news

One of the most surprising fixtures of this early campaign season has been the number of Massachusetts polls finding a surprisingly tight race between Barack Obama and John McCain. SUSA's latest poll had the Democrat leading by 5% -- and that was an improvement over previous dismal SUSA findings. Other polls Obama up by 12-13%, certainly a stronger showing, but these surveys also pointed to a surprising Obama weakness in the state by finding him performing much more weakly than Hillary Clinton. Now, however, we finally get a Massachusetts poll in which Obama performs as strongly (even stronger) than he needs to:

• Suffolk released its general election survey of the state, finding Obama leading 53% to 30%.
  

One or two more of those and we will be ready to move MA from "Likely Obama" to "Safe Obama." Of course, Massachusetts isn't the most interesting general election state but it has long been a puzzling one which is why I chose to lead with it. Other important state polls that are making news today are:

• In Wisconsin, the renowned Badger poll released a poll finding Obama leading 50% to 37% -- a very impressive margin in one of the tightest races of the past 2 elections.
  
• A key finding: The partisan breakdown has shifted 12% towards Democrats since 2004.

• In New Jersey, Quinnipiac found Obama leading but struggling to open a substantial margin. He is ahead 45% to 39%.

• In Iowa, the 2004 red state that looks the most susceptible of falling in the Democratic column, Rasmussen finds Obama increasing his lead to a 7% margin, up from 2% last month.
  
• He now enjoys the support of 77% of registered Democrats, versus 71% last month, though McCain has also increased his support among his base.

• In the important state of North Carolina, finally, Rasmussen shows a tight race with John McCain barely ahead 45% to 43%. This is actually only a 1% tightening, and the two were tied at 47% two polls ago, but North Carolina is rarely included in the list of top tier states and every poll that shows this tight a race is treated as surprising news.

• In Oklahoma, finally, Research 2000 released a poll showing McCain leading by only 14% in a state that Bush won by 32%.
  

Any sign of North Carolina being a true toss-up this November is indeed a nail in the coffin of John McCain, as it is difficult to imagine the Arizona Senator losing such a traditionally red state and somehow get an electoral college majority. An Obama upset in North Carolina would signal major difficulties for McCain in a number of other (former) Republican strongholds, starting with Virginia. Even ruby red Oklahoma is showing signs of tightening!

As for the other state, it is important to realize that as long as Obama keeps all of the Kerry states he can win a majority by simply pulling in three states that are already tinkering on the brink -- Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. Substitute the latter by Nevada and you have an electoral tie. That's why the recent surveys showing Obama posting huge leads in traditionally tight blue states like Wisconsin and Washington are very important, as they reduce the number of places in which the Illinois Senator will have to play defense.

Fortunately for Republicans, they got great Senate news today -- and unexpectedly so given the streak of terrible news that has fallen on the congressional GOP:

• In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by fourteen points following Hagan's 1% lead last month.

• In Oklahoma, a third-tier race that Dems have made some noise about, Sen. Inhofe leads state Senator Rice 53% to 31% in a Research 2000 poll.
  

The previous Rasmussen poll was taken right after Hagan's primary victory, and it seemed that the Democratic candidate then enjoyed a short-lived bounce. In fact, there were a number of polls showing a very tight contest between the two North Carolina women mid-May, so Rasmussen's toss-up poll should not be read as a stand-alone outlier. While the evolution is a bit more brutal than expected, the trend lines make sense as it will take more work for Democrats to get Dole truly in trouble. In any case, pulling this race out of the first-tier is essential for Republicans if they want to have a chance of limiting their losses in November. Note that the NC Senate poll is accompanied by a gubernatorial survey that finds the opposite trend:

• Democratic Lieutenant Governor Perdue now edges out Charlotte Mayor McCrory 47% to 46%. The Republican posted a 45% to 39% lead last month.

It was clear as soon as McCrory announced his candidacy that this race woud go down to the wire, and nothing that has happened ever since has disproved that.

Are Democrats expanding the Senate playing field?

The Senate playing field has long favored Democrats who are defending only one competitive Senate seat (Louisiana). On the other hand, it has long been clear that Republicans are threatened in a long series of states, starting most obviously with open seats (Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado) and with vulnerable incumbents in Democratic-leaning states (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine). Over the next few months, Democrats unexpectedly put in play Alaska thanks to Senator Stevens' ethicalo-legal troubles and Mississippi after Trent Lott's surprise resignation. They also increased their chances in Kentucky where Mitch McConnell looked weak throughout the fall, and two conservative states that suddenly opened up -- Nebraska and Idaho.

For those keeping track, that's more than the 9 seats Democrats need to reach a supra-majority in the Senate. Yet, the road to 60 seat got progressively stiffer as Democratic recruitment remained very weak in Kentucky and Nebraska, as Idaho looks unlikely to shake its red leanings and as early signs and polls signaled that Democrats might have a tougher time than expected in Maine, but also in Oregon. Taking out those 5 races from the equation left a still-impressive 7 Republican-held seats that looked truly competitive in the fall.

After a brief period in which Republicans tried to put New Jersey in play through an offensive so confusing that even I am not sure where we were left at, it looks like Democrats are now looking for ways to expand the map. And if recent polls and fundraising decisions are any indication, they might be succeeding:

• In Texas, two polls in one week showed Senator Cornyn with only a 4% lead over challenger Rick Noriega.

Given how disastrous Texas has been for Democrats over the past decade, few people have been paying attention to this race, ranked a second-tier at best in most assessments. But Cornyn has lost a lot of ground since a series of polls showed him posting huge lead against the Democrat in the fall. Cornyn has never been a particularly popular incumbent and if Noriega capitalizes on the state's growing Hispanic community this race could still close to the end.

• In North Carolina, a stunning Rasmussen poll finds Democrat Kay Hagan jumping to a lead against Elizabeth Dole, 48% to 47%.

State Senator Hagan overwhelmingly won a contested primary against Jim Neal on Tuesday. Pre-primary polls showed little electability difference between Hagan and Neal but confirmed that Dole was vulnerable. Today's poll, however, suggests that Hagan is benefiting from a strong post-primary bounce and that she has the potential to truly put Dole in danger. Confirming that this is reflective of an anti-Republican mood rather than of Dole's unpopularity, the incumbent's favorability rating is better than Hagan's, as 56% of respondents have a favorable view of Dole.

North Carolina Democrats already feel boosted by partisan shifts in their direction, as Democrats have dramatically expanded their registration lead, with 2.6 million North Carolinians now registered Democratic versus 1.9 million Republicans. Among people who have registered since January, 56% are Democrats and only 7% Republican. Similar shifts are occurring around the country and putting many Republican seats in danger; they should also serve as a warning to McCain who should not take states like NC for granted.

• In Oregon, a new Rasmussen poll finds GOP Senator Gordon Smith struggling against both of his Democratic challengers, 45% to 42% against Jeff Merkley and 46% to 40% against Steve Novick.

Oregon was long listed as a competitive state but Smith was showing little sign of vulnerability in polls. The Democrats' failure to recruit a top-tier candidate also raised questions as to the viability of their targeting Smith. But this poll should reassure them that Smith is vulnerable -- polling under 50% -- and that there is room for them to seriously contest the race. The primary is on May 20th.

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With those 3 states looking increasingly competitive, there are 10 Republican-held states that could very realistically fall in Democratic hands as of now. That's obviously a huge number -- and still more than very unlikely to come to pass. But the more the DSCC expands the map, the more seats they will be likely to pick-up, positioning themselves to claim a super-majority in 2010. By stretching the NRSC thin, Democrats know that the GOP will have to give up on its most vulnerable seats, starting with NH, CO and NM (this is what happened in 2006 when national Republicans gave up on Ohio weeks before Election Day).

They are thus trying to put even more seats in play than those 10 to test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents across the country. Roll Call reports that the DSCC in now sending 10 staffers to Oklahoma to help state Senator Andrew Rice in his long-shot campaign against Senator Inhofe.

Note: The Senate and House rankings will be updated by the end of the month. Sorry for the delay!

Democrats get new Senate candidates left and right

The hottest Senate news in the past week have undoubtedly come from New Mexico. Pete Domenici announced his surprise retirement, followed in quick succession by Republican Rep. Heather Wilson announcing a run and Democratic Rep. Mark Udall announced he would not. Today, Democrats seem on the verge of getting one of their strong candidates in the race: Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez is likely to announce tomorrow morning that he will run for the seat.

This guarantees Democrats have a strong candidate in the race, though the DSCC is also trying to convince Lieutenant Govenor Diane Denish to forego her plans to run for governor in 2010 and jump in the Senate race. Many Dems see Denish not only as more competitive, but also as more progressive. Chavez is not liked by Democratic activists because of his friendship with property developers in Albuquerque, and New Mexico is certainly not one of the red states in which a liberal Dem would have trouble winning.

Also very interesting is Chavez's assessment that Rep. Pearce, not Wilson, would be the strongest GOP candidate. The general sense is that Pearce might be too conservative to win a statewide race. Steve Pearce has still not announced his plans, and whether he will run against Wilson in the primary, but he says he is nearing his decision. Another GOPer, Pat Lyons, is also considering a run. This could set up a situation in which both Democrats and Republicans have a competitive primary.

In North Carolina, Democrats finally get a candidate in the form of an unknown investment banker from Chapel Hill, Jim Neal. The DSCC has been trying to get someone to run against Elizabeth Dole for months, and finally have someone in... Though they probably would prefer a candidate with political experience or some name recognition. While Neal starts as a tremendous underdog, he is comparing himself to John Edwards in 1998, a candidate with little experience who snatches a Senate seat. State Rep. Martin is still said to be looking at the race, and he could prove a stronger candidate against Dole.

Finally, Robert Novak reports that the DSCC is trying to expand the map even more to three states few people are paying attention to:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), in his second term running the Senate Democratic campaign, publicly expresses doubt about picking up an additional nine seats to achieve a filibuster-free Senate. But he has been soliciting popular Democratic governors from Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming to run against incumbent Republican Senators from those "red" states - perhaps even to win the magic nine seats. The problem is that these governors do not relish running with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

Any of these three governors entering a Senate race would be huge recruitment coups for Democrats and would clearly push Republicans in a state of complete panic, for they would have way too many seats in play to even think about. All three post very high approval ratings, and would make a Senate seat very competitive. Naturally, they all seem very unlikely (why leave a safe job for a risky Senate run), but none of them would have to leave their post to run which would mean they would have a pretty good fall-back position if their Senate bid were to fail. As for the worry about Clinton on top of the ticket, many articles have been written about a negative Clinton effect in down-the-ballot races but where does that come from? Is Edwards going to win Wyoming? Most polls out for now show Clinton with very decent numbers in red states: in fact, a poll last week from Oklahoma show Clinton only trailing 47-44.

Meanwhile, we still wait for Bob Kerrey...