Shocker in the Senate: Trent Lott resigns, opens new competitive seat

Some huge news this morning pretty much as soon as Thanksgiving week-end was over: Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi is set to announce his resignation! Lott just got re-elected last year after flirting with the possibility of retiring. He ended up running again, frustrating all those who have been looking to move up Mississippi politics for quite some time now.

So why has Lott suddenly decided to call it quits? He wants to move on to the private sector and become a lobbyist, but doing it now allows him to avoid the restrictions of the lobbying law Democrats passed in the spring and that is going in effect at the end of the year. One of the restrictions it that lawmakers have to wait two years after leaving office to become lobbyists, so Lott can bypass that rule and go in the private sector much faster by resigning now. All in all, a rather shocking reason for an elected official to give up his democratic duties.

Now, Republican Governor Barbour (who was just re-elected a month ago) will appoint Lott's replacement; a special election will be organized in November 2008 to fill the rest of Lott's term up to 2012. The first question is whether Barbour will appoint a caretaker (someone who will not run in 2008) or a Republican who wants to be a full-time Senator. The most likely is certainly the latter, but if the state GOP seems to divided Barbour might have no choice but to let a primary take place and appoint a caretaker until then.

If Barbour goes for a Republican who wants to run again, the most likely replacement would be Rep. Pickering, who was long considered Lott and Cochran's heir. Pickering, seemingly frustrated that neither senator had retired, announced his retirement from the House over the summer - could he be convinced to come back? But there is a very deep Republican bench in the state, so Barbour will likely have to deal with other contenders... and we can't exclude a competitive primary in the spring no matter what Barbour does today.

Democrats are likely to pressure former state Attorney General Mike Moore and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. With either of them, this immediately becomes a competitive seat: Democrats might be completely out for presidential elections in the state, but they have a good bench for statewide races.

The last thing the Republicans wanted is another safe seat to become competitive, for they are already pressed on money and do not have enough time to look at all the difficult contests. Democrats have been expanding the map, and that alone is giving them a huge advantage -- and Lott's decision today helps them create an unmanageable situation for the NRSC. At least, the GOP can be relieved that they will not have to defend an open seat here -- both Moore and Musgrove would have had a much higher chance in that case; now they will probably have to face an incumbent.

Update: The Washington Post's Fix is reporting that Barbour will probably not go for Pickering, making Rep. Roger Wicker the most likely replacement. He also confirms that Mike Moore appears very interested in making a run here.