Loss of LA-06 sends the NRCC reeling

For the second time in two months, Democrats picked up a staunchly conservative House seat last night. Conventional wisdom and a stream of polls had made Democrat Don Cazayoux the favorite, but that should not obscure the fact that this is a district that Bush won with 59% in 2004 and that, until the beginning of April, few people truly believed Democrats could do anything but force the GOP to play defense. Cazayoux's victory gives the Democrats an unlikely victory in red territory and sends the RNCC (that invested nearly $1 million in the race) reeling.

The race ended up being much tighter than we expected, with Woody Jenkins quite literally in the lead until the last minute (relive the incredibly suspenseful 6-minute sequence here); the DCCC's choice to spend an astronomic $1.2 million most likely helped put Cazayoux over the edge, 49% to 46%.

House control and open seats: Democrats now control 235 seats to 199 for Republicans and they will have an opportunity to increase their majority yet again in 9 days in the runoff of MS-01. Republicans now have to pick up 28 seats to regain a majority; considering that they are on their way to losing seats rather than gaining any, this is an impossible feat. The loss of LA-06 underscores that the GOP's main problem is the high number of open seats they have to defend. In an election year in which turnout patterns are favoring Democrats, Republican risk a catastrophe in the open seats they are holding. If they were unable to hold IL-14 and LA-06 despite heavy spending in both districts (spending they will not be able to replicate in the fall), will they be able to even compete in NY-25, NM-01, OH-15, NJ-03 and NJ-07?

Flawed GOP candidates: One crucial thought that should reassure Republicans is that their defeats in both IL-14 and LA-06 were first and foremost due to the flawed candidates they presented. In Illinois, Oberweis is a discredited and unpopular candidate associated with smear tactics; in Louisiana, Woody Jenkins is a controversial figure associated with figures like David Duke and that many voters think is too far to the right of the mainstream. His emphasis on socially conservative issues only resonated so far, even in this staunchly conservative district. Jenkins' unpopularity made it more difficult for the GOP to nationalize the special election, which to the end remained a referendum on the Republican candidate.

The future of LA-06: While IL-14 is likely to stay in Democratic hands in the fall, the road ahead is likely to be tougher for Cazayoux than for Foster. Oberweis is still the Republican candidate for the November general election in Illinois, but Jenkins will not necessarily go for a rematch in the fall, allowing the GOP to contest the race with a more presentable candidate. Furthermore, an African-American Democratic state representative is threatening to run as an independent in November; if he does, this could splinter the Democratic vote enough to boost the Republican towards a victory.

The presidential race: Republicans had sought to tie Don Cazayoux to national Democratic figures, starting with Barack Obama. The race had thus become a test of the down-the-ballot impact Obama would have in November (note that the GOP has gone further with this strategy in MS-01, for instance using footage of Reverend Wright, so that race will be a more interesting test than LA-06). So how did Obama do? As most elections of this primary season, yesterday's results were inconclusive. The DCCC and many bloggers are claiming that Cazayoux's victory proves Obama will not be a drag in November, while the NRCC issued a press release stating that "this should come as a warning shot to Democrats" that "the elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped."

On the one hand, there is no question that the race tightened over the past week; two weeks ago, the NRCC was on the verge of abandoning Jenkins to his fate and a SUSA poll showed Cazayoux up 9%. Yesterday, Cazayoux barely held on. The attacks the GOP aimed against him succeeded in dragging down his numbers. And, as I noted above, Republican efforts to nationalize the race were undermined by Jenkins' unpopularity.

On the other hand, Cazayoux did win so there is only so much associating him to Obama did to his numbers -- and this is in a district the Democratic nominee will have no hope of carrying in November. Furthermore, the fact that this is a strongly Republican district means that any attempt to tie Cazayoux to any national Democrat was assured of driving down his number.

Had Cazayoux collapsed or had he held to a high-single digit lead, the result would have been read more closely by superdelegates. But LA-06 is not likely to meaningfully impact the presidential race from this gray in-between area that also characterizes so many of the Democratic primaries (see March 4th, April 22nd...). Keep in mind, however, that Cazayoux now becomes a superdelegate; he is still uncommitted and is thus likely to start receiving a lot of phone calls...

LA-06 results thread: It's Cazayoux!

10:51pm: CAZAYOUX WINS! 70 more precincts were added to the SOS's website in the space of one minute and Cazayoux had a 4,000 vote lead just among them. With only 4 precincts remaining, he is now ahead by 3,000 votes; no matter how white and conservative the last 4 precincts might be, that will not be enough for Jenkins to catch up (the race has not been officially called yet... so brace yourself for the unexpected, though I really don't see how Jenkins could come back here).

I don't think I have ever experienced something quite like this in an election night: This much unpredictable volatility in a matter of minutes. Even in suspenseful races, we usually know where the outstanding votes are and can thus expect the direction the race is likely to take; here, however, there was little way of knowing since all the outstanding votes were from one parish -- and a parish that is clearly very polarized (a commenter at Swing State Project actually pulled off some stunning calculations to suggest a reversal was coming). This felt like the last 45 seconds of a tight basketball game in which teams keep swapping the lead.

10:50pm: Jenkins takes back the lead! What a race... As different demographics are reporting, the lead in East Baton Rouge (and in the district) is oscillating. With 40 precincts, Jenkins erased a 2,000 vote deficit and is now up 900 votes!

10:45pm: Cazayoux takes the lead for the first time. 50 precincts reported in Baton Rouge (100 more to go), and Cazayoux had a 4,000 vote advantage in those precint alone, giving him a 2,000 vote lead! It looks like those 50 precincts were heavily African-American. Once again, we can't know where the remaining precincts are located.

10:40: Now that the last Livingston precinct has reported, it is all up to East Baton Rouge... which has apparently decided to make us wait with no update to their numbers for 20 minutes now. The reason it is difficult to know what is going on is that this parish contains both very conservative precinct and precincts with significant black population. In the primary last month, African-American state representative Michael Jackson beat Cazayoux by 1,000 votes in this perish. Depending on the demographics of the remaining half of the district, this could really go either way...

10:25pm: This is getting to be as exciting as Guam! West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana fully reported and Jenkins' lead was down to 900 votes. But a new group of votes from East Baton Rouge inflated Jenkins advantage to 2,000 votes again. Jenkins is back in the lead in East Baton Rouge with half of the precincts there counted... Cazayoux has to win approximately 56% of the remaining Baton Rouge votes...

10:20pm: It's going to be very difficult to know what is going on in LA-06. Apart from the 200 East Baton Rouge precincts, we are waiting for 1 from Livingston (big for GOP), 5 from West Baton Rouge (big for Dem) and 4 from West Feliciana (tight). Needless to say, results from East Baton Rouge will determine where this goes which means we will not be able to estimate where the voters are likely to come from... and we will have to just wait it out.

10:15: Dramatic movement! With a third of East Baton Rouge now reporting, Cazayoux is now ahead by 900 votes in that perish and trails by 2.5% (1,400 votes) district-wide. There clearly is a lot of disparity in the voting patterns within Baton Rouge (there is no way for us to know where results are coming from within a county). Democrats better hope there is more of where this came from... as this doesn't negate the turnout patterns I identified at 10:10pm.

10:10pm: Compare the turnout by parish today with that of the primary last month and you will understand why Jenkins is leading so big. Republican turnout has dramatically improved, while Democratic turnout hasn't. In Pointe Coupe, a blue stronghold, 1800 voters voted in the Democratic primary and 2500 voted for Cazayoux today. In Livingston, less than 4,000 voted in the GOP primary but Jenkins got nearly 9000 votes today.
Meanwhile, we are back to a 7% lead for Jenkins (4,000 votes) with 52% reporting. Cazayoux needs to significantly improve his showing in East Baton Rouge; he now trails by 1,500 votes there.

10:05pm: Cazayoux is not catching up and now trails by 10% and 5,000 votes. 47% of the precincts have reported and nearly all outstanding votes will come from East Baton Rouge... though Cazayoux trails there by 1,300 votes by now. A surprisingly easy hold for Republicans?

9:55pm: Good news for both candidates. With more than a third of precincts reporting, Jenkins leads by more than 8% (3,000 votes). East Baton Rouge (which has 100 more precincts than all the other parishes combined) is starting to come in and Jenkins is for now ahead by 1000; if he keeps that going, he will have a good night. Also, some of the strongest (but smallest) Democratic parishes are now almost fully reporting. The good news for Cazayoux is that 86% of Livingston is already in, and a large part of Ascension too. Cazayoux will need strong numbers in Baton Rouge.

9:50pm: 18% of the precincts are now reporting, and Jenkins is continuing to lead big, 51% to 46% (a 1,000 margin). The district's two Republican strongholds (Ascension and Livingston) are respectively 25% and 41% in, which is good news for Cazayoux (Livingston is giving more than 70% of its vote to Jenkins). East Baton Rouge, which will likely decide the winner, hasn't really started reporting yet.

9:30pm: Results can be found on the Louisiana SOS's website. Results are trickling in slowly for now. With more than 3% of precincts reporting (plus absentees), Woody Jenkins is ahead 50% to 45%! Livingston County, a GOP stronghold and Jenkins' base, is allowing the Republican to take a big early lead.

Original post: Polls close in a few minutes in LA-06 and Democrats are looking to get their second pick-up in a row in a red district after their remarkable victory in IL-14. A very Republican district that Bush won with more than 60%, LA-06 was on few people's radar as of the beginning of April. Yet, the GOP began panicking as soon as Woody Jenkins and his sulfurous connections won his primary. The DCCC dumped in more than $1 million on behalf of Don Cazayoux and, despite a short period of time in which it seemed the GOP would abandon Jenkins, Republicans spent heavily on his behalf, boosted by outside groups such as Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch.

A number of internal polls realized in the past month showed Cazayoux narrowly ahead, with SUSA's poll a few days ago finding him to be leading by 9%. However, Republicans have done a lot to nationalize the election and portray the Democrat as a tax-obsessed liberal with ties to (gasp) Barack Obama. Complicating matters even more for Cazayoux is news that African-American state representative Michael Jackson, who lost to Cazayoux in the primary, has been running TV ads in the district to announce that he will be running as an independent in the November general election; this could end up costing Cazayoux some of the support he needs in the district's African-American parishes.

Despite the fact that expectations clearly are that Cazayoux will win tonight's election, keep in mind that such a suggestion would seemed shocking just 6 weeks ago and that the loss of two back-to-back red districts (with MS-01 around the corner) would send Republicans reeling.

Congressional diary: With one day to LA-06, Fossella steals some attention

The polls open tomorrow morning in Louisiana's 6th district. It is a testament to Don Cazayoux's advantage that the expectations favor him so much; it was just on April 6th that I wrote my first preview of this special election, describing the race as a toss-up. With the latest poll showing the Democrat leading by 9%, it would be a remarkable comeback for Woody Jenkins to pull through a win after all. But this is not the Democratic primaries and the expectation game matters very little: A win is a win is a win in a congressional election, with the winner becoming congressman and the loser staying at home; so the only reason Democrats should be upset about expectations being too optimistic is that it would be harder for them to paint a narrow loss as a "moral victory" (not that those attempts ever work that well anyway).

Republicans did not give up on the race as some were expecting them to; despite facing a financial crunch and an unexpectedly competitive race in MS-01, they purchased significant ad buys and were boosted by the participation of other groups like Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch that jumped in to help Woody Jenkins. Yesterday, Democrats made their final push to help Cazayoux pick up this conservative district. Swing State Project reports that the DCCC just dumped more than $250,000 of various expenditures, including a new ad buy against Jenkins. This means that the DCCC has spent a total of more than $1,1 million in LA-06's special election! Even for a committee as rich as the DCCC, that is indeed a lot of money (note that the DCCC has already spent as much in MS-01 and there are still 10 days to the runoff).

Meanwhile, some of the attention was diverted to New York yesterday as news broke that Rep. Vito Fossella of NY-13 (Staten Island) had been arrested in Arlington, Virginia on DWI charges. Fossella faces a day in court on May 12th. While politicians have survived DWI charges before (see: Bush, George) and it is unlikely that Fossella resigns or retires because of this, it could potentially make his life more difficult in the general election. Democrats have not been able to make this race competitive in recent cycles, however, with Fossella winning in 2006 (a terrible year for New York Republicans) with more than 56%.

Finally, a new Rasmussen poll from the New Hampshire Senate race shows Jeanne Shaheen leading Senator Sununu 51% to 43%. This is a 1% tightening in the past month but also the first time Shaheen crosses 50% in a Rasmussen poll. For an incumbent to be under 50% is already a sign of vulnerability, to say nothing of the challenger crossing that threshold in the other direction. Note that Rasmussen's polls have always shown a tighter race than other polling institutes that have surveyed this race; Shaheen is often found to be leading Sununu by double-digits and has held that lead since the very beginning, in a replay of the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race.

As the DCCC dumps huge resources in MS, Cazayoux leads and Childers distances himself

There are only two more days before the special election in LA-06; after attracting everyone's attention for a month, this district has been overshadowed in the past two weeks by MS-01, where the action has been more controversial. Now, a new poll released by SUSA confirms the conventional wisdom that the Democratic candidate, Cazayoux, is favored to pick-up this deeply conservative district. He leads Woody Jenkins, who suffers from a terrible favorability rating, 50% to 41%; Jenkins leads by 5% among white voters, trails 5:1 among African-Americans.

In Mississippi, Democrats are probably increasingly regretting the fact that Childers fell just short of the 50% mark in the first round, ending 400 votes from being elected on April 22nd. The runoff is on May 13th, and the Democrats are now spending a lot of resources to live up to the potential revealed last week. The DCCC just reported massive expenditures yesterday: more than $700,000, which includes two media buys, one for a negative and one for a positive ad! This means that the DCCC has spent more than $1,1 million on this seat for now which confirms that they are really committed to picking it up but also that they are not taking the runoff for granted despite Childers' edge in the first round. This also gives a clear edge to Childers since it will be very difficult for a still nearly-broke NRCC to meet the DCCC's spending.

Yet, there is no doubt Democrats have to be frustrated they have to spend this money at all -- not to mention they could have avoided the embarrassing distancing game Childers is playing vis-a-vis national Democrats. As I reported yesterday, the Southern special elections are now featuring Obama, with Republicans hitting Childers (and Cazayoux) over the head with ads linking him to national Democrats.

Childers already denied getting Obama's endorsement earlier this week. Now, he is taking the extra step of running an ad (you can watch it here) referring to "the lies and attacks linking me to politicians I don't know, and have never even met." There is nothing surprising in Childers' attempt to keep the race localized; Bush got 62% in this district and Childers cannot survive were he to be associated too closely with figures like Pelosi, Kerry and Obama. But, as Marc Ambinder reminds us, Obama used to claim that his candidacy would transform dynamics in the South and "make Mississippi a Democratic state" by making African-Americans vote their percentage of the population (which they already do).

Southern special elections now feature Obama

Two of the major storylines that I had been following closely are now coinciding -- the special elections in MS-01 and LA-06 and the debate over Barack Obama's electability. Republicans have been very pessimistic about their chances in both districts (polls have shown Cazayoux leading in LA-06, and Childers came within 400 votes of picking up MS-01 in the first round). And, as we know, desperate times call for desperate ads...

Predictably, the GOP is using the old strategy of tying the local Democratic candidate to national leaders identified as ultra-liberal. For many years, the bogeyman used to be Ted Kennedy; he was soon joined by Hillary Clinton and, last year, by Nancy Pelosi. But in a development that is surprising many by how soon it came about, Kennedy and Clinton appear to have been replaced by... Obama.

Republicans are now running a series of ad "accusing" Cazayoux and Childers of ties to national Democrats, among which "liberal Barack Obama" figures prominently. It all started earlier this week, when Greg Davis released a controversial ad tying his opponent Childers to Obama and to Jeremiah Wright. Since then, the NRCC has released ads of its own; the NRCC's ads are much less controversial than Davis' and they stay away from Wright, concentrating instead on taxes and campaign donations. Here is one that is running in LA-06:


And here is the ad in MS-01 (this is now the second one that seeks to connect Childers to Obama, after Davis's ad using Wright):


Both of these ads include the name of other Democrats, John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi. As such, they are part of an effort to nationalize both of these special elections, take them away from local issues to show voters the big picture of a national fight between two national parties. Given the heavily Republican lean of both MS-01 and LA-06, Cazayoux and Childers have been doing their best to distnace themselves from their leadership in DC and portray themselves as conservative, and this is the predictable response. Note that Democrats do exactly the same thing when they link local Republicans from blue states to George Bush and they blame moderate GOP representatives for voting for a Republican speaker.

What is surprising, however, is the confidence with which Republicans are now using Obama's name. A few months ago, the GOP was concerned that Obama might durably shift party allegiances and lift the entire slate of local Democrats; there is apparently no such fear left in the NRCC's ranks. In fact, Politico details the GOP's plan to tie conservative Democrats with Obama; their article reveals that polling has been conducting in LA-06 showing Obama suffers from a very low approval rating.

Cazayoux and Childers are both expected to win at this point based on polls and on the results of the first round of voting in MS. Were they to lose, it would create a lot of chatter about Obama's down-the-ballot drag; if they win convincingly, however, Obama would likely benefit tremendously in the superdelegate chatter and Clinton's argument that Obama is too risky a proposition in the general election would be undermined. Most of it, of course, would be quite unfair; these districts are very Republican and any attempt at nationalizing the stakes is bound to help the Democratic candidates, not to mention that the GOP is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into saving them. Inversely, the RNCC's failure to use Obama's name successfully would not mean that the Senator has no electability problem; in 2006, the GOP failed at nationalizing any election no matter how hard they tried. The electorate was determined to vote for their local Democratic candidates no matter what.

For now, the GOP is succeeding in creating confusion, and early returns are worrisome for Obama's hope that superdelegates pay no attention to the GOP's confidence to run against him. Travis Childers is now distancing himself from Barack Obama, going as far as denying that Obama has endorsed him.

Down-the-ballot: As we wait for the specials, movement in Nevada

Four days from the special election in LA-06 and as the heat is rising in the MS-01 runoff, the congressional committees are continuing to closely monitor developments. The DCCC reported small expenditures over the week-end, including some for field organizing. Turnout is even more important in special elections than in regular contests, and Democrats have had a clear edge in that metric for months now. The nationalization of the MS-01 race could increase Republican energy, but it could also motivate the districts' Democrats; which of these looks to be more true on May 13th will serve as an early clue as to whether Republicans can energize their base with the threat of an Obama presidency.

For now, we can only be amazed at the size of the DCCC's expenses in these upcoming contests. In a pair of very heavily Republican Southern seats, the DCCC has spent more than $1,1 million. This is quite a significant amount, only possible because of the committee's financial dominance, which allows them to take risks they might otherwise not have taken. The DCCC would have been extremely unlikely to devote this level of attention and resources in previous cycle when resources were scarce. Not to mention that the DCCC forced the NRCC to respond despite the fact that the GOP barely has enough money to defend seats that on paper should be even more endangered than LA-06 and MS-01.

Meanwhile, there is movement in NV-03, which is one of the most vulnerable non-open seats this year. Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then, with January's contested caucuses leading to many new Dem registrants (Politico profiles this battleground district here). Boosted by their new-found edge in the district, Democrats believe they had recruited a strong candidate, local prosecutor Robert Daskas. But the highly-touted Daskas withdrew today, citing familial reasons... and leaving Democrats without a candidate.

But the DCCC might already have a candidate to replace Daskas with: Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. As far as I remember from the 2006 campaign, Titus is a progressive Democrat; but her campaign did not live up to its potential then, as she failed to capitalize on scandals involving eventual winner Gibbons. But there is no question that Titus jumping in the race would keep a bright spotlight on the race and keep Porter very much endangered. An added reason Democrats want to defeat Porter this fall is that the representative looks to be one of the most threatening potential challengers to Harry Reid in 2010.

Finally, some news from Indiana's race for governor. The fact that all pollsters are now working in Indiana to survey the presidential primary means that a number of polls of the gubernatorial contest are also being released. The Democratic primary is also being held on May 6th, and underfunded Jill Long Thompson appears to have an edge against architect Jim Schellinger, despite the latter's heavy establishment supporter. In the general election, three surveys show very tight results:

• Research 2000 finds incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels to be tied with Thompson at 45% and edging out Schellinger 45% to 44%.
• The Mark Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows Daniels up 1% against both Democrats.
• The Indianapolis Star has Thompson edging out Daniels 44% to 43%, but the incumbent prevails over Schellinger 45% to 41%.

There are very few competitive gubernatorial races this year so Indiana's is sure to be watched very closely. Among other reasons to follow this race: With Indiana's state House and Senate split between Democrats and Republicans, the governor's mansion could be essential in determining who benefits most in the next round of redistricting.

DCCC going for the kill in Southern special elections

The first round of the special election in MS-01, held Tuesday, was obscured by the higher-profile Pennsylvania primary. But the result was truly stunning: In this heavily Republican district that gave 62% of its vote to George Bush, the Democratic candidate came about 400 votes from the 50% mark that would have gotten him elected in the first round and 3% ahead of the GOP candidate. No one was expecting Childers to get this close to an outright majority; there were 6 names on the non-partisan ballot and, even if the race was looking competitive, most of the attention was focused on neighboring LA-06 which holds its special election on May 3rd.

But Childers fell just short and thus the race has to go to a runoff on May 13th. A probably very frustrated DCCC can harbor some regrets: It did not meet the NRCC's final spending in the district and ended up spending half as much, in a clear calculation that the race would go beyond April 22nd. Had they invested a bit more in the final week, those 400 votes could perhaps have been found. But this is a a case in which hindsight is really 20-20.

Tuesday's numbers by no means ensure a Democratic victory in the runoff, and Republicans are likely to fight back to try and close the 3% gap. But consider how concerned the NRCC must be this week. An outspent Democrat came close to a stunning upset against a Republican with no particular baggage in a district we only started paying attention two weeks ago. This paints a truly terrifying picture of what awaits the GOP in November. There are other seats that don't feature on people's competitive list because of their Republican lean, and they are plenty of endangered incumbents who seat on districts that are more vulnerable than MS-01. Trailing the DCCC's cash-on-hand by $37 million, the NRCC does not have the money to compete in most of these districts. If the Democratic candidates have such potential in other supposedly uncompetitive districts, there is little the NRCC will be able to do about it.

For now, the congressional committees are raising the stakes in the two Southern special elections. The DCCC just bought a large media buy against Greg Davis in MS-01; the $220K bring their total to $360K; there is no word for now of the GOP rushing to Davis' rescue after the run-off and the Republican strategists are probably now calculating how much is it worth for them to spend considering how little money they have and how close to a victory Childers is.

In a sign that Democratic strength in MS-01 might make the GOP concentrate more on LA-06, the latest Republican spending is coming from the latter: the NRCC bought a $130K ad against Cazayoux, bringing its total to $250K. But the DCCC more than responded with a $257K media buy against Jenkins as well as much smaller organizing expenditures. The DCCC has now spent a total of $670K in LA-06 -- outspending their counterparts nearly 3:1!

The Republicans are staying afloat here thanks to the spending of other groups such as Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch, which has spent half-a-million in the district. All together, expenditures meant to help Jenkins are superior to those on Cazayoux's side but not by enough to outweigh the fact that the Democrat has been favored to win the seat ever since the two parties selected their nominees.

Congressional diary: Is the NRCC abandonning Woody Jenkins?

Call this round for the Democrats? Two days ago, the DCCC upped the stakes in the special elections of LA-06 and MS-01 by buying more than $100,000 of ads in both districts; this brought the Democrats' total in Louisiana to $270,000 more than the double of what Republicans are spending in their effort to keep a seat that voted overwhelmingly for Bush. This forced the cash-starved nearly-broke RNCC to consider how much more they could conceivably spend without emptying their coffers.

Yesterday night, the NRCC filed papers declaring it had met the DCCC's investment -- but only in Mississippi, with a significant ad buy of $150,000 that brings the Republican total in the district to more than $232,000. This is twice a much as the Democrats have invested in the district for now, but there is no reason Democrats will stop, particularly if they can force Republicans to go for broke. Consider that the spending spree is starting earlier than usual. In IL-14, the first salvos were fired on March 1st, two weeks before the special election. The runoff in MS-01 will be held on May 13th. It is difficult to imagine the NRCC meeting the Democrats' spending for the next 4 weeks.

For now, however, the GOP has not met the Democrats' increased spending in LA-06. If they do not do so in the coming days, it could be a sign that the NRCC has decided to abandon Woody Jenkins to his fate, probably sealing a second Democratic pick-up of a very red district within 2 months.

Despite the fact that LA-06 and MS-01 are both very conservative districts, the GOP have been in trouble in the former for a while now, and Woody Jenkins' is widely considered a flawed candidate who cannot win this election; in fact, Republicans were telling the press ten days ago that they might not do anything at all to help Jenkins. The GOP is not as desperate in MS-01, and the one poll that has been released shows a toss-up -- it is thus logical that the NRCC is looking to defend that district.

To make matters worse for the GOP, it looks like their fundraising troubles are not just confined to the congressional committees. Bloomberg has come out with a fundraising analysis of the first quarter numbers to conclude that Democrats have outraised Republicans in "28 of the tightest 38 districts." Four Republican incumbents were outraised by their challenger (Walberg in MI-07, Kuhl in NY-29, Schmidt in OH-02 and Reichert in WA-08), and Democrats also outraised the GOP in 9 Republican-held open seats. With numbers like this, the Republican candidates will truly need the NRCC's help in the fall, especially as the DCCC will add to the unbalance by pouncing the most vulnerable incumbents with multi-million ad campaigns. But the GOP struggle's to meet the Democrats' spending in LA-06 is a reminder of the increasing difficulty the NRCC will find itself in.

Meanwhile, jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff is continuing to rock the Colorado Senate race. A few days after the Denver Post ran a very damaging article against GOP candidate Bob Schaffer's connecting to Abramoff, the Denver Post is explaining that Democratic candidate Mark Udall received two contributions from PACs connected to Abramoff; Republicans are also charging this led Udall to vote against anti-gambling legislation.

There is no question that the allegations against Schaffer are much more damning and they concern much more direct interactions, but the more Republicans can muddy the discussion on ethics the higher Schaffer's chance to survive this building scandal. The DSCC is working to make sure Schaffer cannot just put this behind him; they have produced an ad that hits the Republican for his 1999 trip and it is a fairly effective spot considering that the allegations the ad references are more serious and better documented than those of the average attack ad. It does not look like the clip will air on television, so Democrats are holding their fire for now.

The DCCC ups the stakes in Louisiana and Mississippi

News broke from the Louisiana and Mississippi special elections just a few hours after I reported that concerned Republicans (and GOP-supporting groups) were rushing to rescue endangered these red Southern districts: The NRCC has bought its first ad in MS-01 and a group called Freedom's Watch has done the same attacking the Democratic nominee in LA-06.

But it is dangerous to provoke an adversary when they have seemingly free flowing ressources and you are nearly broke, and news broke tonight that the DCCC is responding quickly to the Republicans' move. Swing State Project provides the details: The DCCC has just bought a $104K ad buy in LA-06 (plus some direct mail), bringing its total to $270K, more than the double of what Republicans are spending in their effort to keep a seat that voted overwhelmingly for Bush.

The DCCC is going even further in LA-06 and filing an official FEC complaint against the NRCC. The complaint alleges that the GOP committee coordinated with Freedom's Watch; both ads attacking Cazayoux use similar attacks to charge the Democrat with wanting to raise taxes. The WaPo article adds that, "The Democratic officials said the advertising script carried an electronic identifier that shows it originated in the Republican committee."

More surprising is the DCCC's decision to invest in MS-01, with an ad buy of more than $125,000 -- a significant amount in a seat that was on no one's radar screen until a few days ago and in a seat in which the NRCC fired the first shot (will they come to regret it?). Of course, it is not that surprising when one considers how much money the DCCC has in the bank and the small number of seats they are really worried about losing in November (though GOP chances are looking up in places like TX-22). They have resources to invest in many districts that usually go unchallenged -- and MS-01 was an obvious choice considering that a poll last week confirmed that the race was a toss-up. You can be sure the DCCC will test Republican seats in places where the GOP looks even better than it does here... Democrats know the NRCC will not be able to respond everywhere, so why not have a go at it and see whether numbers move?

The DCCC's move forces us to pay attention to MS-01 in a way that even the NRCC's ad buy had not brought about yet. The district's massive Republican lean combined with the fact that Greg Davis is not a flawed candidate the way Woody Jenkins is (in LA-06) give the Republicans an obvious advantage here, one that even last week's poll and the NRCC's move did not seem to question. Those news were alarming, but they were merely the signs of a defensive Republican Party. But we now have to confront the very real possibility that Republicans will have lost three heavily red seats in the space of two months (counting IL-14). Even if the GOP holds on two both LA-06 and MS-01 (the latter still leans GOP at this hour, though the former favors a pick-up), at what cost will they have done so? And how can they possibly hope to pull out similar defenses in late October unless they significantly pick-up their fundraising?

Before they worry about such questions, the NRCC is confronted to more pressing choices: What do they do about MS-01 and LA-06? If they meet the DCCC's totals, they will fall in a deeper financial hole knowing that Democrats will have little trouble raising the stakes even more. But they can ill afford to give up on two seats that are this staunchly Republican. So will they concentrate on MS-01, which is obviously much more easily salvageable?

Special election watch: Republicans rush to save Southern seats

A week from the special election in Mississippi's 1st district and less than three weeks from Louisiana's 6th, national Republicans are getting increasingly worried at the prospect of losing not one but two staunchly conservative Southern districts.

MS-01, first, since this is a district we have talked about much less. On the ballot on April 22nd will be six names with no party affiliation indicated. The top two candidates are Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis who won competitive contests in the regular primaries last months. If no one gets 50% on April 22nd, a run-off will be held on May 13th. Bush won this seat overwhelmingly in 2004 -- and this is the last place Republicans were expecting to have to compete in.

But MS-01 is the type of district that has very deep Democratic roots and where many local officials still call themselves Democrats. A poll last week suggested that the race could be very competitive. And all of this has forced the NRCC to jump in the race with a medium-sized ad buy. The NRCC's ad alleges that Childers mismanaged a nursing home that he runs with his wife. (you can view the ad here). “Childers doesn’t care about seniors... He profits from them,” charges the NRCC's ad.

You can be sure that the GOP would not have invested here had they not been sure that they needed to take emergency action: The NRCC has very little money, a ton of endangered seats and it does not want to have to spend the next few months defending seats that are supposed to be as safe as MS-01. Consider also that the DCCC did not fire the first shot here as it did in LA-06, making the NRCC's choice to invest funds even more dramatic.

In LA-06, meanwhile, the situation continue to look very worrisome for Republican nominee Woody Jenkins. The DCCC has invested more than $150,000 here, forcing the GOP to respond in a weakly produced ad. There had been talk just a few days before the NRCC's investment that they would abandon Jenkins to his fate, too concerned that his controversial profile made him unelectable. Today, the Cazayoux campaign released a new internal poll that show the Democrat leading Jenkins 49% to 42%, confirming the GOP's worst fears.

Now, Freedom's Watch, a conservative independent group, has launched itself in the LA-06 battle by airing a negative ad against Cazayoux (you can view it here). This spot picks up where the NRCC left off, accusing Cazayoux of favoring tax hikes. It looks a bit less like a caricature than the NRCC's ad, however, and a second ad with the same message could start hurting Cazayoux as it could start drilling in the idea that this (very conservative) Democrat wants to raise taxes.

Freedom's Watch is a 501c and is not allowed to directly come out supporting or opposing any candidate. It has to only address an issue, leading to the ad's silly conclusion which urges viewers to call Cazayoux's office to urge him to not raise taxes... Another thing to consider is that Freedom's Watch advocacy director was responsible for the NRCC's independent expenditures in 2006, suggesting that this is a group we will hear (and see) a lot from in the coming months.

In Senate news, finally, two interesting polls were released over the past few days:

• In Louisiana, a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey shows Mary Landrieu beating John Kennedy by twelve percent, 50% to 38%.
  

• In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds that incumbent Elizabeth Dole leads challenger Kay Hagan 52% to 39% and Jim Neal 51% to 37%.

The North Carolina Senate race is a long shot for Democrats, who have to bank on something dramatic happening that makes this race competitive -- almost like Virginia in 2006 -- and who have to deal with the fact that this contest was one of their recruitment disasters of the year. In Louisiana, this is the second recent poll showing Landrieu up double-digits, after last week's Rasmussen poll. LA is supposed to be the most (only?) endangered Democratic-held Senate seat of the cycle, so it is not a good sign for the GOP that they can't even hold under 50%.

Let the games begin: Congressional committees launch the Lousiana war

For the third time this cycle, the DCCC has forced the hand of its GOP counterpart. After OH-05 and IL-14, the two congressional committees are now engaged in an all-out battle for the special election in Louisiana's very conservative 6th district, featuring Republican Woody Jenkins and Democrat Don Cazayoux.

As recently as Tuesday, the GOP was supposedly considering giving up on Jenkins; not only are they not confident in his ability to rally moderate Republicans, but they simply do not have the money in the bank to defend yet another seat. But the NRCC apparently realized it could not afford to lose a second seat that George Bush won so handily in 2004. The temptation to stay out evaporated as soon as the DCCC fired the first shot this week with a $111,000 ad buy to air this negative ad against Jenkins.

"Woody’s company was hit with 20 tax liens for failing to pay taxes on time," charges the ad before attacking him on the national sales tax. The DCCC's spot stays away from some of the most controversial issues surrounding Jenkins, particularly his ties with Klansman David Duke. Those connections were actually brought up in the GOP primaries by one of Jenkins's rival, so do not be surprised if Democrats decide to hammer the issue in the run-up to the May 3rd special election.

The DCCC's ad is neither powerful nor catchy. But it is stellar in comparison to the GOP's response spot... With surprising rapidity, the RNCC purchased a $110,000 ad buy today to attack Cazayoux with this spot. The GOP ad is as close to the caricature of a Republican attack ad as it could be. Focused entirely on taxes, it throws in the l-word, lists a litany of taxes Cazayoux allegedly voted to raise in the Louisiana legislature and then attempts a rather weak name-association with the tagline: "Instead of Don Cazayoux... Don Tax you." This slogan/'pun' is then repeated a second time. Even for a conservative district that is weary of liberals, it is a bit too obvious that the Republican ad was produced in a very short amount of time.

Sitting on a massive warchest, House Democrats can afford to test the resilience of Republicans in a variety of districts, even some that are not supposed to be competitive. The GOP has barely been able to respond for now and has already dilapidated a lot of money over the past few months responding to the DCCC's provocations in Illinois and Ohio. The fact that the same scenario is now taking place in Louisiana (and possibly in Mississippi as well, but more on that in the coming days) could put the NRCC's in even greater financial difficulty.

This sequence of events also confirms how difficult the fall could be for House Republicans when all 435 seats will be up for grabs the same night -- rather than this trickle of special elections. If the DCCC uses its huge cash-on-hand to launch attacks ads left and right, the GOP will not be able to respond in many targeted districts; it will have to choose those that look the most salvageable and leave the Republican candidates (or incumbents) to their fate in all others. This also serves to explain why the GOP has been suffering from recruitment difficulties, as potential candidates realize that they will get very little help from the national party.

Meanwhile, things are getting interesting in another very conservative Southern special election, MS-01 (formally held by now-Senator Wicker). This contest is taking place on April 22nd. A few weeks ago, Democrat Travis Childrers and Republican Greg Davis won their party's primaries for the regular election to be held in November, and they are the only ones campaigning for the special election. But the special election has no primaries or run-off (whoever gets the most votes wins) and the ballot will feature the names of the candidates Childrers and Davis defeated in the primaries. Further confusing voters, the ballot is non-partisan.

All of this could certainly lead to surprising results on April 22nd. An internal poll for the Childers campaign shows a 2% toss-up when all names are read. But who knows how many people will go out to vote for those Democrats and Republicans who are no longer running? A Davis victory on the 22nd would make this seat a safe hold for the GOP in November, but if Democrat Childrers manages to benefit from GOP divisions and finds his way to victory he will remain a vulnerable target for Republicans in the fall when only Davis and him will be on the ballot.

House diary: Republicans losing confidence in LA-06

Just a few days have passed since both parties selected their candidates for the May 3rd special election LA-06 and the NRCC is already staring at the very real possibility of the loss of a second seat less than two months after Foster picked-up IL-14. The campaign of the Democratic candidate, state Rep. Cazayoux, released an internal poll this week showing him leading Jenkins by 5%, 49% to 44%. While we should take this with a grain of salt, like any internal, consider that a Republican internal poll I reported on Sunday also showed Cazayoux narrowly ahead.

Republicans are dispirited that former state Rep. Woody Jenkins won the primary, seeing him as too controversial a figure to be as competitive as he should be in a general election. In Jenkins's resume, for instance, there is the small matter of a connection to Klansman David Duke... Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published a stunning article in which Republicans officials consider abandoning Jenkins entirely and letting him wrestle on his own against Democratic take over attempts. "The NRCC will meet with Mr. Jenkins's campaign this week to discuss strategy and to outline financial benchmarks that the campaign will have to meet to receive the campaign committee's support." A GOP aide adds that a GOP hold "is doable, but it's difficult."

But these suggestions are suspect: The NRCC is making it seem that they might not fund Jenkins because he is unelectable rather than because they do not have the money to help him.

If the GOP was so convinced that Jenkins is a second-tier candidate, why did they not agitate against him before the primary and recruit a strong candidate to run against him? Republicans could surely have found a stronger candidate had they woken up about Jenkins' problems before he was selected by voters. And Jenkins is not that second-tier a candidate for a district like LA-06: He fits the area's social conservatism and he has a strong local following.

The main reason the NRCC is considering not funding this race is the committee's lack of funds. They spent a lot of their money defending OH-05 and IL-14 in the past few months and their very meager war chest (they have about one seventh of the DCCC's cash on hand) does not allow them to spend the millions that would be necessary to help Jenkins in a meaningful way -- not to mention that the NRCC's opening its wallet would instantaneously lead the DCCC to launch in a spending war which Republicans simply cannot win.

Meanwhile, things are looking up for Democrats in AL-05, a Democratic-held open seat that votes heavily Republican in presidential elections. The DCCC did a better job recruitment-wise in what for a while looked like their most endangered seat of the cycle. They are running state Senator Griffith while the GOP has filed executive Wayne Parker (who unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 1994 and 1996). Now, Capital Survey Research Center has released a poll of this race, finding the Democrat leading Parker 48% to 32% -- a good margin to start with. The GOP has been looking for AL-05 to open up for years to win a seat they believe should be theirs and you can be sure they will hate the Democrats managing to find a way to hold on to it.

Next Democratic House target: LA-06

The Democrats' next House target is set: LA-06 is holding its special election to replace Republican Rep. Baker, who earlier this year followed Sen. Lott's footsteps and absurdly resigned in the middle of his term to go in the private sector. Just like IL-14, which Democrats picked up in March, LA-06 is not the most obvious place for a Democratic victory. The district clearly leans Republican and gave George Bush 59% of its vote in 2004, and the mere fact that it now looks to be competitive is horrendous news for House Republicans.

Yesterday, both parties held the runoffs of their primaries (the first round was on March 8th). The Republican side was less suspensful, and former state Rep. Woody Jenkins prevailed with 62% of the vote. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Don Cazayoux won against another state representative with 57% of the vote, thus setting up the general election's match-up.

"Democrat" Cazayoux is the main reason the DCCC is optimistic about its chances in LA-06, though what makes him a good fit for this conservative district also make him very unappealing to liberals; if elected, he would definitely be one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus and, though he would be one more vote for Speaker Pelosi, he would undoubtedly break with his party on the tightest (and most controversial) votes.

This does not mean that it's not panic time for the NRCC, which is still facing huge fundraising issues and which already had to dump millions to defend OH-05 (successfully) and IL-14 (unsuccessfully, though this effort consumed about a fifth of their cash on hand). The last thing the GOP wanted was to spend another chunk of their meager war chest in yet another district that should be safe for Republicans, but this race looks to have become a sure toss-up. Consider this:

(1) 34,610 Democrats turned out to vote in their primary yesterday versus only 24,470 voters for the GOP's contest. With 56.7% fo the vote, Cazayoux got much more votes than Jenkins, who got 62%. In a reliably red district, that's quite a large difference that says a lot about the two parties' enthusiasm. Special elections are often very low turnout affairs, so Jenkins will have to mobilize her base to counter this problem.

(2) An internal poll conducted for Republicans and obtained by Roll Call earlier this week shows Cazayoux leading Jenkins by 3%. Among those who say they are certain to vote in the special election, Cazayoux is ahead by 9% -- yet another evidence that the Republicans biggest problem on May 3rd (and across the country in November) will be turnout and the mobilization of its base.

In LA-01, meanwhile, Republican state Senator Scalise won the runoff to fill the seat left by Rep. Jindal who became Governor in November. This race shouldn't be competitive.

House diary: Dems hoping to pick-up red districts

Boosted by their success in IL-14's special election, Democrats are now looking in the direction of more districts that are traditionally Republican. And first on their list is Alaska's at-large seat, where Rep. Don Young has been embroiled in a corruption investigation that is threatening the state's entire Republican party. A December poll showed Young trailing his top-tier Democratic opponent Berkowitz.

Now, Young has attracted major Republican competition in the form of a second primary opponent. The state's lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell (whose dad Young defeated in the 1980s) has announced he is running against the incumbent. Young could be saved by his adversaries dividing the anti-incumbent vote, but Parnell's entrance guarantees that there will a tough primary. This is also a rare case in which Democrats would be better off running against the incumbent, so they want Young to survive the primary: The main reason they are competitive in this red state is the incumbent's ethical troubles.

In IL-14, meanwhile, Democrats still have to hold the seat in November to keep it for 2 more years, and Republicans know an incumbent is never as vulnerable as in his first re-election fight. Unfortunately for the GOP, they are stuck with the same candidate they had in the special election (Oberweis) when one of the main reasons they lost it in the first place was Oberweis's divisive image. Now Robert Novak is reporting that Republicans are trying to get their candidate to withdraw so they can attempt to conquer the seat back with a stronger candidate, but it is very unlikely that Oberweis will yield. After all, this is probably his last attempt to win an office after a series of failed elections.

Finally, Republicans will have to defend 4 special elections in May: Louisiana's 1st and 6th districts, Mississippi's 1st and 3rd districts. The runoffs of primaries will be held in the coming weeks, so we will have to wait to get the exact picture of the special elections. But we can already says that LA-01 and MS-03 are too conservative to be in any way competitive, and the Democrats are not fielding candidates in any state to contest the seats. MS-01 is also probably out of reach -- though less dramatically so.

That leaves us with LA-06, whose incumbent (Rep. Baker) resigned from his elected office to make money as a lobbyist. The Republican candidate (probably state Rep. Jenkins) will start as the favorite, but Democrats believe they can create a surprise here depending on the outcome of their primary. It goes without saying that a Democratic pick-up in any of these four
districts would be a huge shock for the GOP, especially when coupled with the loss of IL-14, and it would create major turbulences in the NRCC.

House update: 2 more special elections, new polls, and the latest recruitment news

• Special elections: IN-07 and LA-06

We have been facing a seemingly never-ending series of special election over the past few months. And here are two more coming up. First, Indiana's 7th district, that opened up last month after Rep. Carson passed away. Last week-end, both parties selected their candidates for the March special election but only the party's leadership participate in the choice, as the selection was not opened to a primary process. The GOP is fielding its strongest competitor, state Rep. Jon Elrod who was already eying a run before the seat opened up. Democrats chose the grandson of the former representative, Andre Carson. Many are criticizing that choice as the weakest choice the Democrats could have made.

And indeed it looks like Democrats will have a fight in their hands in a blue district that Bush lost decisively. But Dems unexpectedly lost Indianapolis in November, suggesting that the GOP has an opening in this region. And a poll that was released a few days ago has Carson barely edging Elrod 41% to 38%. Caveat: The poll was conducted for one of Carson's rivals in the Democratic selection process. But considering that the GOP has been excited about Elrod for a long time now, expect a big fight in this district come March.

Second we have LA-06, where Rep. Richard Baker is resigning from his House seat 22 years after entering Congress in order to... join the private sector. In other words, he is following in Trent Lott's footsteps. This is a district that is clearly Republican and that Bush won with 59%, but Democrats believe they have a chance. This is the opposite scenario as IN-07, as Dems already had a candidate eying the seat before it opened up: state Rep. Don Cazayoux, a conservative Democrat who is being touted as a very strong recruit who could take the district from Republican hands. And however competitive Cazayoux actually manages to make the seat, expect the DCCC to dump a big sum of money in a replay of OH-06.

• NC-08: Hayes in trouble in North Carolina

Rep. Hayes barely survived his 2006 re-election bid in a shocking shocking by democrat Larry Kissell who only lost by 329 votes. The DCCC had not committed to the seat at all, believing it had better chances elsewhere and it got criticized for failing to push Kissell through the finish line. This time, the DCCC is looking closely at the race and will likely help Kissell but Rep. Hayes has a big advantage over 2006: he knows what is coming and is preparing himself (and raising money) accordingly.

Yet, a new poll has Hayes trailing 49% to 47%, which is obviously a very week showing for an incumbent. The poll was conducted by Greenberg Research, one of the most reputable Democratic firms, for the CAP Action Fund and the SEIU union. So it is an internal poll of sorts but it still paints a dire picture for Hayes.

• KY-03: Is Northup coming back?

Good news for Republicans in KY-03, one of their (slightly) surprising losses in 2006. Rep. Anne Northup, who had survived a countless number of challenges over the years, is now nearing a decision on whether to run again, something she was not planning to do a few months ago. Freshman Democrat Rep. Yarmuth was hoping to face an easy road to re-election, especially given that the district leans Democratic at the presidential level. But there is no doubt that (relatively moderate) Northup could give him the most dangerous re-election fights he would likely face for a while.

Take two factors into account however: Northup lost a very hard-fought GOP primary for governor last year against incumbent Ernie Fletcher, so that has got to do something to her appeal here in the district, and second, a poll commissioned by the NRSC has Yarmuth ahead 49% to 47%. That means that this race will be very hard-fought, but Northup probably has as good if not better name ID than Yarmuth so that factor that usually bodes well for challengers will not play to her favor.

Democrats have a candidate in MS-Sen, the GOP is losing an incumbent in LA-06

Score one for Democrats. Stung by former Attorney General Mike Moore's decision to not run in Mississippi's special Senate election, Democrats finally got some good news today as their second-choice, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, announced he was jumping in the race. He will run in against newly-appointed Senator Wicker -- which could end up being slightly awkward. From the Sun-Herald article: "Musgrove and Wicker are longtime friends and shared an apartment in Jackson when they served together in the state Senate."

The two polls taken of the race in the past few weeks have Musgrove very competitive against Wicker; one of the two even shows him ahead by double-digits -- so anything could happen here, and this is not a seat Republicans wanted to defend.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Jim Hood has now gone to court and is suing Governor Barbour to force him to schedule the election in the next 3 months. Barbour, of course, has scheduled it on November 4th, which would help Wicker tremendously by leaving him more time to build incumbency and making his election coincide with the presidential race and its boosted turnout. I don't have a sense yet of what to expect timing-wise here, and when rulings would be likely to come in. Expect decisions in the coming weeks, however, as this is clearly an emergency situation.

Meanwhile, Republicans might be on the verge of losing yet another congressman to lobbying firms, and once again have him resign in the middle of his term. Louisiana's Richard Baker who represents Baton Rouge has notified the House Clerk that he is interviewing wiht Hedge Funds Association -- a lobbying group which represents investment banks and hedge funds. If he gets the job, he says, he will quit within the month, which would lead to yet another special election. I think we can all agree that this is in very poor form and that it just speaks of the poor ethics of congressmen that they find it acceptable to quit in the middle of a two-year elected term to make more money.

This district (LA-06) is not as Republican as some of the others that are opening up lately and Democrats already have a candidate, state Rep. Don Cazayoux Jr., who was expected to run no matter what. Talk about expanding the map to districts that were nowhere on the radar screen just a few days ago. The last thing the GOP wants right now is to defend seats in special elections given how much money they had to spend to win OH-05 and how little resources they have left.