House diary: Congressional Republicans are in panic mode

House Republicans have had a tough few days ever since Travis Childers prevailed in the MS-01 special election by eight points despite the district's heavy Republican lean. Dire predictions as to the partys' November prospects are accumulating, new lists of vulnerable Republican districts are being drawn and NRCC Chairman Tom Cole facing threats of being ousted over complaints about his performance and meager fundraising.

In a remarkable statement on Tuesday night, Cole did not try to spin the results and called on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught. He followed that up by admitting that the problem was the Republican party rather than particular mistakes that were being made. Meanwhile, former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis, who is retiring from his Northern Virginia House seat this year (Democrats are favored to pick it up), sent members of the Republican caucus a 20-page memo about what the GOP needs to do to save itself.

As for the particular situation in Mississippi, Childers will now have to fight for his re-election in November. Of the three special elections Democrats have won, this is the only one in which the Republican candidate himself was not deeply flawed which makes it possible for Greg Davis to come back and win this in November considering it's a presidential year and turnout will be increased accordingly. But Childers large victory in a situation of increased turnout -- including in white counties -- makes him the favorite to win re-election in November. And national Republicans are unlikely to throw any more money at this race; consider that they already spent one-fifth of their cash on hand in this race.

The Republican debacle in MS-01 also means that very few Republican open seats are safe from Democrats in November and it open puts seats like Steve Pearce's NM-02 and Terry Everett's AL-02 on the map. Pearce and Everett have both retired months ago but their seats were not taken that seriously by national strategists. Both are very conservative districts and will be so in a presidential year. But if Foster, Cazayoux and Childers can win three specials in a row with the NRCC heavily investing to help defend their seats, how will the GOP defend these other open seats when national Republicans will not have $1,3 million to spend on each race.

Meanwhile, GOP panic is extending to other seats that are looking increasingly difficult starting with Alaska's at large district, another very red district. Incumbent Don Young is facing a corruption investigation (along with the rest of the state GOP) and Democrats believe their day has come after a few cycles of Alaska heartbreakers. A new poll shows just how endangered Young is:

• Research 2000 finds Young trailing Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 50% to 40%. Their poll a few months ago showed Berkowitz up by 8%.
  

For any incumbent to be under 50% is already a troubling sign, but to be trailing by double-digits is just bad news. Past cycles have shown that no race can be taken for granted by Democrats in Alaska, but this is obviously encouraging.

Meanwhile, the situation continues to look unclear in NY-13. After the DUI/sex scandal broke out last week, the media quickly reported that Rep. Vito Fossella would resign or at least announce his retirement within days. But signs quickly pointed to the fact that Fossella had no intention to do that. It now looks increasingly unlikely that Fossella is looking to exit; he is delaying speaking to the media, and former Senator D'Amato is now saying that Fossella will not resign, run for re-election and win. There is some speculation that Fossella might be delaying his decision to avoid a special election (I suggested a few days ago that I don't think this is grounds for a resignation).

Meanwhile -- and this is the one good news for the GOP in this post -- the prospect of an open seat in NY-13 is splitting Democrats! The district is split between Brooklyn and Staten Island (mostly in the latter) and Democrats are now engaged in a rather silly exchange about it with Staten Island Democrats claiming that their candidate has to be from the island to have any chance of winning and Brooklyn Democrats taking offense at that. How important this fight is will depend on what Fossella decides to do, as a SUSA poll showed that he still has a very good approval rating.

Also, expect new House ratings within the next week.

Results thread: Childers makes it 3 in a row for Dems, Clinton triumphs

2am: With all precincts reporting, Clinton held on to a strong margin: 67% to 26% for Obama. John Edwards got 7% of the votes. The delegate breakdown is almost as good as Clinton could have hoped for as she gains 20 delegates to Obama's 8. This includes a 4-2, 4-2 and 5-1 split in the state's 3 congressional districts. She won every single county of the state, holding Obama under 15% (as low as 8%) in some counties. Meanwhile in Nebraska, Obama won the beauty primary contest by 2% and 2,500 votes -- a good contrast for him in another very white state, though he had won the caucuses on February 9th -- the first in that series of 11 victories that sank Clinton -- with 68% of the vote.

11:45pm: In West Virginia, Clinton's margin is superior to 40% with 83% of precincts reporting. She is leading 67% to 26% for Obama, as weak a showing as the polls were predicting. If numbers hold as they are, this could mean a delegate allocation as good for Clinton as 20-8.
In Mississippi, meanwhile, Childers' final margin is an 8 percent victory, a stunning feat in this conservative a district and a significant improvement over April 22nd. This will send shockwaves through the House GOP in the coming days, with some predicting a few additional retirements. And don't forget that there is a contested Senate race in Mississippi in November.
In Nebraska, finally, Scott Kleeb has won the Democratic nomination for the open Senate seat. The GOP's Mike Johanns is heavily favored to keep the seat but Kleeb will attract attention from national Democrats. Also, Nebraska Democrats were holding a (beauty) primary today, confirming once again how difficult the playing field is for Clinton in caucuses: On February 9th, Clinton lost the caucuses 68% to 32% (and trailed by 8 delegates). In today's primary which allocates no delegates, she is leading by 10,000 votes with 3/4th of the votes counted.

10:15pm: MS-01 is called for Democrat Travis Childers!
This is the third special election in a row won by Democrats and leaving the GOP in a state of true disarray. They can't explain this one away by blaming a flawed Republican candidate. And while this might not seem like a huge surprise given that Childers almost won in April, just remember what was being said about this race as late as April 21st... It was a second-tier race at best in a district Bush won with 62%.
Tate County finished reporting with a slight improvement for Childers. Meanwhile, Pentiss County left no hope for Republicans, giving 86% of its vote to Childers. The Democrat's 2,000 vote margin will likely increase with the last fifth of precincts reporting.

10:10pm: DeSoto County is done reporting: Davis increased his lead since April 22nd by an impressive 2,000 votes, with 75% of the vote. But he had gotten 81% 3 weeks ago and, with his strongest county done, he still trails Childers by 1,100 votes. Davis can still count on Tate County but that county is much smaller than Prentiss, which is Childers' base. Not that I am willing to call a race before the AP but...

9:50pm: I am not sure where Davis can get the votes to close the gap. With 64% reporting, the margin is down to 2,000 votes and 2%. But that includes 73% of DeSoto County now -- and Childers has 1,000 more votes than the first round while Davis has yet to reach his previous total. Meanwhile, of the 7 counties that have yet to report anything, Childers won 5 three weeks ago.
Meanwhile in West Virginia, Obama is failing to get 30% with 38% reporting. He trails 64% to 29%. Edwards' name was on the ballot, and he is getting about 7% right now!

9:45pm: This election is looking increasingly good for Democrats. LaFayette County fully reported transforming a 200 vote loss into a 300 vote victory for Childers, with turnout more than double. DeSoto is now 55% reporting and, while Davis is getting 73% of the vote, that is not enough to close the gap with Childers whose biggest county hasn't even started reporting.

9:35pm: More than half of the precincts are reporting and Childers is 8% -- or 3,500 votes -- ahead. Keep in mind that DeSoto County has still a long way to go, but Childers' strongest county (Prentiss) has yet to report. It gave the Democrat 83% of the vote on April 22nd. It is Panola County's turn to bring good news to Childers. Three weeks, Davis led by one vote in this county. Today, more than 5,000 voters went to the polls instead of 2,100 (a huge turnout increase) and Childers is leading by 700 votes with only one precinct outstanding.

9:25pm: With 41% reporting, Childers is leading by 6%. More great news for Childers as counties are finishing reporting: (1) Yalobusha County: With all precincts reporting, Childers transformed a 21 vote loss 3 weeks ago into a 400 vote lead (59% to 41%). This is not necessarily the most important county in the district, but it does suggest that Childers is not hurting from the increased turnout: Turnout is about 150% of what it was on April 22nd. (2) Chikensaw County: Here again, turnout doubled and Childers increased his share of the vote from 67% to 73%. African-Americans are voting in greater numbers and Childers leads Davis by 500 votes votes more in the county alone.

9:20pm More than a third of precincts is now reporting and Childers is down to a 6% lead. But Childers is getting some great news from Lowndes County. With 18/22 precincts counted, this county is tied with Davis 6 votes ahead. Three weeks ago, Childers trailed by 400 votes and got 43%. Also, Webster County just became the first county with more than one precinct to have reported; the margin is the same (+200 votes for Davis) but turnout has almost doubled so this is obviously a good showing for Childers who improves his percentage and did not suffer from increased turnout.

9:05pm: Numbers are now coming in faster from MS and the turnout totals are indeed very different. In Chickasaw County, with half of the precincts reporting, Davis is already at his total from three weeks ago Childers isn't even at half of his... Things look better for Childers in Marshall County, where it looks like African-American turnout is helping him. DeSoto has started reporting and is naturally helping Davis, though Childers is (for now) at 26%, versus 17% 3 weeks ago. With 20% reporting, Childers is on top with 55% and 1,700 votes.

9:00pm: Results are now trickling in from both races. In West Virginia, Clinton is leading by 24% with 5% of precincts reporting.
In Mississippi, it does not look very good for Travis Childers if we look at a key county. With 16% reporting, he is ahead 59% to 41%. But Lee County -- which Childers won with 58% and 1,700 votes is more than 75% reporting and Davis has already surpassed his April 22nd total while Childers is 900 votes under. It looks like there is increased turnout that is helping the Republican.

8:25pm: No votes have yet been reported in either contests (I am following the MS results at the Clarion-Ledger) but Clinton wasted no time sending out an email celebrating her victory in West Virginia and vowing to press forward, sounding a defiant tone and refusing to concede that the race is over:

After tonight's tremendous victory here in West Virginia, it's clear that the pundits declaring this race over have it all wrong. The voters in West Virginia spoke loud and clear -- they want this contest to go on. I'm listening to the voters -- and to you.

With your help, I'm going to carry the energy of tonight's victory into the next contests in Kentucky and Oregon... We've proved conventional wisdom wrong time and again in this race. We did it again tonight in West Virginia. Let's keep going.

8:00pm: Still no votes are being reported in WV but the polls have closed in Mississippi. In worrisome news for Democrats, DeSoto County, the district's biggest county that is also Davis's base (he got 81% here on April 22nd) ran out of ballots and had to reprint some -- suggesting that turnout was very superior to the first round's. Less than 13,000 voters came to the polls in that county on that day, but 17,000 ballots were printed today. Overall, turnout is up throughout the county. In a district that is as Republican as MS-01, the higher the turnout the more difficult it becomes for Democrats. They can have hope that most of that turnout comes from black voters, but DeSoto running out of ballots increased turnout still confirms why it is much easier to pick-up a seat like this in the first round than in the runoff (see CA-50 a few years ago).

7:30pm: Clinton triumphs in West Virginia. Surprise, surprise, the race was called as soon as the polls closed.
Exit polls suggest a roughly 2:1 margin in Clinton's favor, who would then get about 66% of the vote. That's about what polls were suggesting -- though perhaps on the lower end of what Clinton was allowed to hope for. Note, however, that only 51% of voters were women which is a much smaller proportion than we are used to seeing in Democratic primaries. Clinton got 73% among voters with no college education. 69% in households with less than $50,000. In further proof that this has little to do with operation mischief, registered Democrats voted for Clinton more than did independents. 21% of voters said that race was an important factor for them, and 84% voted for Clinton; she got more than 60% of those who said it wasn't a factor.

Original post: Welcome to the third results thread of the month of May. Appropriately, the first concerned the special election in LA-06 and the second the Democratic primaries in IN and NC. Today, two elections await us: the primary in West Virginia, which Hillary Clinton is expected to win handily, and the much more suspenseful special election in Mississippi's 1st district.

In West Virginia, the question will be Clinton's margin and how low she can manage to keep Obama among blue-collar voters. Too huge a loss would certainly be embarrassing for the Illinois Senator considering his campaign is already claiming the nomination; and given that some networks have planned some coverage of the primary tonight, they would have little else to talk about than Obama's continued weakness among the working-class as well as some problematic exit polls from West Virginia: 51% of Democrats say that Obama agrees with Reverend Wright, versus 47%. Also, 75% of Clinton voters say they would be dissatisfied if Obama became the nominee, versus 61% of Obama supporters. Also, as many Clinton voters say they will support Obama in the fall as say McCain (36% versus 35%). These are not Republican voters creating mischief as West Virginia is a half-open primary in which only independents and Dems can vote in the Democratic primary.

In Mississippi, Democrat Childers came within 400 votes of picking up the seat in the first round on April 22nd. Since then, the GOP has done everything it can to nationalize the election and attach Childers' party affiliation around his neck (this is a district that gave 62% of its vote to Bush). Ensued massive spending on the part of the NRCC and DCCC (more than $3 million combined). Today, a last minute controversy erupted as the Democratic committee sent out this mailer accusing Greg Davis of ties with the KKK:

While the GOP is furious about what they see as race-baiting, note that the flier (rightly) accuses Republicans of having played the race-card first: “You’ve seen the TV ads attacking Barack Obama – trying to use race and religion to divide us.”

House diary: As MS-01 nears, confusion surrounds Fossella

The next chapter of the GOP's special election nightmare continues in two days as voters in MS-01 will reconvene for the congressional runoff opposing Travis Childers and Greg Davis.
The DCCC is reporting new expenditures while the NRCC has given up on following over the past few days. The latest totals show that more than $3 million has been spent on the race by the congressional committees alone, with $1.8 million coming from the Democrats. Besides the NRCC, Davis received help from Freedom's Watch.

Prior to the first round of balloting on April 22nd, Childers was seen as having an outside chance but the race was not attracting as much attention as LA-06. But Childers came within 400 votes of the 50% threshold on that night; distancing Davis by 3%, he entered the runoff period as the favorite. This is not necessarily the best position to be for a Democrat who wants to win in an ultra-Republican district. Republicans have had ample time to air ads trying to nationalize the election and mobilize their electorate. On the other hand, the DCCC has been on the attack and similar GOP tactics did not work in LA-06 last week.

The fact that both parties continued to spend heavily on the race confirms that the race is likely to be a nail-biter, however tantalizingly close Childers got 3 weeks ago. Without providing details, Cook Political reports that "private polls suggest that the needle has not moved and that [the GOP's] chances of holding the seat in the runoff are 50/50 at best."

Meanwhile, confusion surrounds the fate of Rep. Vito Fossella (nicknamed Vino by New York's tabloids) in NY-13. Arrested for DWI-ing last week, Fossella was soon forced to admit that he was racing to see his second family in Arlington. This has predictably caused a political storm, with House Republicans quickly putting pressure on Fossella. House Minority Leader Boehner told him to think about his political future over the week-end.

As of Friday afternoon, numerous papers and news agencies (like Politico) were reporting that Fossella was about to resign ("within 72 hours"). But within 24 hours, Fossella's entourage started pushing back and indicating that Fossella would not only not resign but that he would probably choose to run for re-election in November ("I can cheat and run" is the New York Post's headline).

I have trouble understanding why Fossella should resign or not run for re-election. He was (1) dunk-driving and (2) fathered a child in an adulterous relationship. The first is much more significant, but other politicians have survived similar scandals (not to mention that it looks like Fossella had left DC and was racing to Arlington because his daughter was sick), so it looks like the pressures only come down to a sexual scandal. At least in the Spitzer scandal there were elements of heavy hypocrisy and illegal activities.

Fossella's case was boosted by a SUSA poll released on Friday that shows the congressman with a great approval rating (67%). 53% say he should run for re-election and only 32% think he should resign. These numbers also suggest that Fossella's re-election chances are not doomed should he decide to run again in the fall.

If he bows down to the pressure and resigns or retires -- and the NY papers don't seem ready to leave him alone -- Democrats will have a great chance of picking a seat (in a special election if Fossella resigns before July 1st). While Bush won the New York City district in 2004, Democrats have a slight edge and considering the dire state of the New York GOP, the fact that this is a presidential year and that NY-13 is in the most expensive media market in the country, this would be a tough hold for Republicans.

Down ballot: Fossella headed towards exit, fields set in NC and IN

Last week, Rep. Fossella (NY-13) was arrested for DWI in Arlington, Virginia, with his breath test resulting in a 0.17, twice the Virginia legal limit. This caused a mini-scandal but Fossella was not immediately considered to be in that much trouble; after all other politicians (starting with Bush) have survived DWI charges. But reports are emerging (for instance from the Washington Post) that there could be much more to the story, and that what started as a drunken arrest could be the prelude to a sex scandal.

Now, speculation is increasing that Fossella will soon announce that he is not running for re-election, perhaps even resigning before his term is finished. Governor Paterson would then have to decide whether to hold a special election or just wait for November. The Washington Post's piece starts with "The consensus on Capitol Hill is: Vito is finito" and Roll Call is already reviewing the names of potential candidates that could replace him.

This district covers all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn and is the only seat of New York City represented by a Republican. An open seat in NY-13 would immediately become one of the Democrats' top opportunities. Not only does it lean Democratic but New York Republicans have been slowly but surely declining into oblivion and their troubles would only be worsened in a presidential year.

So much has gone wrong for the NRCC this cycle -- recruitment, special elections, accumulation of open seats, fundraising trouble, first year in the minority and scandals like this -- that a double-digit gain for House Democrats is looking increasingly certain.

Meanwhile, the congressional committees have lost all sense of restraint in the MS-01 special election; those 400 votes that Childers was missing to get to a majority on April 22nd are costing a lot to the DCCC which appears to be reporting new expenditures every day with 6 more to go. After a new $200,000 report tonight, the DCCC's total is brought to $1.6 million (here's one of the recent ads that the DCCC is running against Greg Davis); the NRCC has spent a little over a million.

That both parties are spending this much suggests that the race is remaining very tight (they are conducting polls, so they know what is going); no matter how close to a victory Childers was 2 weeks ago, Greg Davis definitely retains a chance to keep this district. Remember that Davis is not a deeply flawed candidate the way Oberweis was in IL-14 and Jenkins was in LA-06 and MS-01 is more Republican than both of these districts.

Finally, the North Carolina and Indiana primaries yesterday did more than damage Clinton's chances for the presidential nomination. They also set the field for some important down-the-ballot races. I alluded to the victors in the results thread last night but here is a quick rundown:

• NC-Sen: State Senator Kay Hagan crushed Jim Neal and can now run against incumbent Elizabeth Dole. While the Republican is heavily favored, most polls show that Hagan could make a move under the right circumstances. A second-tier race with potential to turn more competitive.

• NC-Gov: Both favorites held on to their parties' nomination by narrow margins. Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Patrick McCrory won the Republican nod. This sets up a much more competitive race than was expected a few months ago. McCrory was the only Republican with a chance of winning in a state that is red at the federal level but often votes Democratic in local races.

• IN-Gov: Former representative Jill Long Thompson won the tightest race of the night (50.3%), overtaking Schellinger's lead in the last minutes as Lake County finished reporting. She will now face Governor Mitch Daniels to become the state's first female governor. Polls indicate a toss-up race.

• House races: All incumbents won their re-election battles last night despite an uncommonly high number of competitive races. In the most watched race of the night, North Carolina anti-war Republican Walter Jones survived a challenge from a pro-war candidate 60% to 40%; in Indiana's 7th district, Andre Carson held on with a plurality of the vote a few weeks after winning his grandmother's seat in a special election. Both are favored to win the general election.
  

Congressional diary: Clinton-Obama isn't the only race today

It's Election Day... and Clinton-Obama are not the only races on the ballot today. In fact, there is a whole series of competitive congressional primaries that we will be following more or less closely, starting with statewide races in both North Carolina and Indiana.

In North Carolina, the most high-profile election opposes Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore for the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination. Perdue, the Lieutenant Governor, started with a significant lead that Richard Moore was never able to overtake despite running increasingly negative ads. The winner of the primary will be favored in the general though the fall campaign would become very competitive if the GOP nominates Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

Also in North Carolina, Democrats will decide who -- Kay Hagan or Jim Neal -- will face Elizabeth Dole in the fall. Neither candidate is first-tier or well-known, as the DCCC suffered from a rare series of recruitment failures here. On paper, Hagan should be the strongest in the general though polls taken so far put the two Democrats roughly at the same level against Dole; Neal is also reputed to be much more progressive than Hagan, though his career as an investment banker undermine those credentials.

Finally, the last competitive statewide race is Indiana's gubernatorial race, where two Democrats are facing off to face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels in the general: architect Jim Schellinger and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson. The former was favored by the establishment and raised much more money, but Thompson appears to have transformed higher name recognition into a lead in the polls. There is no sign that either would be particularly stronger in the general.

In non-May 6th congressional news, all eyes are of course on the special election in MS-01 -- just in a week! The DCCC has dumped $100,000 again, bringing its total to $1,4 million! This is an awfully high tab for a race that the Democrat was so close to winning in the first round on April 22nd. Those 400 votes are forcing the Democratic party to spend more than a million dollars to live up to the first round's potential. It's also forcing them to defend themselves against attempts to nationalize the election by linking Childers to Barack Obama.

Last week, Childers actually denied having been endorsed by Obama (a strange claim to make considering the contrary evidence). That was enough for Republican candidate Greg Davis to produce another ad (watch it here), hitting Childers for lying about not receiving Obama's endorsement. What's so strange about this ad (like the previous ones) is that it takes Obama to be so toxic that it doesn't even bother making any attacks on the Illinois Senator; there is even a montage of Obama's website and talk of Childers there, as if we were talking about the website of Fidel Castro or even -- gasp -- of Ted Kennedy. I remain unconvinced that Obama is defined enough to be this much of a drag even in this staunchly conservative a district. He might be unpopular but that does not necessarily lead to toxicity.

Finally, the University of New Hampshire released a wave of polls yesterday:

• In the Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen is -- as always -- running ahead of Sununu, 52% to 40%. That's a 5% tightening since the last UNH poll but that doesn't obscure the fact that it's bad news for an incumbent to be under 50% -- let alone to trail by double-digits.

• In NH-01, however, Democratic Rep. Shea Porter is in trouble. She won her race in one of the most unexpected upsets in 2006, and the incumbent she beat, Jeb Bradley, is back for a rematch... and leads her 45% to 39%. She even struggles against another Republican, John Stephen 43% to 35%.
  

• However, Democrats are in better shape in NH-02, which they also picked-up in 2006. Rep. Hordes is leading both his challengers by close to 30%.

NH-01 is one of the 11 Democratic seats I have listed as a toss-up in my latest ratings. This first poll of the race confirms that assessment; Democrats are going to need to recapture their 2006 momentum (NH was probably the state that colored itself blue the most dramatically) to keep this seat.

Waiting for LA-06: Congressional committees keep raising stakes in Mississippi

Polls close at 9pm in LA-06's special election, the results of which we will be following closely here. In the meantime, there are plenty of other developments in congressional races, starting with the other Southern special in MS-01. The last time we checked in this hotly disputed run-off between Travis Childers and Greg Davis, the DCCC had dumped $700,000 in the race and Childers was busy distancing himself from Barack Obama while Republicans were doing their best to nationalize the race.

A few days later, the financial stakes are only getting higher; yesterday, the RNCC added almost $400,000 to its Mississippi tab while the DCCC increased its ad buy by $139,000. The DCCC has now spent nearly $1.3 million while the NRCC is getting close to the million dollar mark. This is a particularly high price for the GOP to pay considering they are already suffering from a financial crunch but it also represents a significant investment by Democrats -- especially considering how close Childers got to winning on April 22nd. The seat has since become the Democrats' to lose and the DCCC is spending accordingly.

Meanwhile, Greg Davis is now getting help from Freedom's Watch, the conservative group that has been hitting Don Cazayoux in Louisiana. Their ad picks up on the strategy employed by the NRCC and Davis and it ties Obama and Childers's plans of raising taxes (watch it here). Note that Freedom's Watch latest ad in Louisiana proved quite controversial; it accused Cazayoux of supporting illegal immigration and having voted against "In God we trust" (watch it here). But when Cazayoux objected that there was no evidence of the ad's immigration claims, some networks refused to air the ad.

The Colorado Senate race, meanwhile, continues to be rocked by allegations surrounding Republican candidate Bob Schaffer's 1999 trips to the Marinas Island in 1999 and his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. A group called Campaign Money Watch is now airing an ad in Colorado over this story:

The ad puts the emphasis on the fact that Schaffer had traveled to the islands to report on allegations of forced abortions and asks whether Schaffer "looked the other way." This might seem like too forced an attempt to connect Shaffer to something that shady, especially when there are many other things in the story that do not speak well of Schaffer. But consider that the ad is running exclusively in Colorado Springs, a conservative region of the state with the intention of softening up support for Shaffer in conservative parts of the state. As in every election with undefined candidates, the Democrats' goal is to introduce Schaffer to voters before he can introduce himself. Keep in mind that Democrats were expecting an easier time in Colorado on the basis of their successes in 2006 but Mark Udall has not been able to open up a lead.

As the DCCC dumps huge resources in MS, Cazayoux leads and Childers distances himself

There are only two more days before the special election in LA-06; after attracting everyone's attention for a month, this district has been overshadowed in the past two weeks by MS-01, where the action has been more controversial. Now, a new poll released by SUSA confirms the conventional wisdom that the Democratic candidate, Cazayoux, is favored to pick-up this deeply conservative district. He leads Woody Jenkins, who suffers from a terrible favorability rating, 50% to 41%; Jenkins leads by 5% among white voters, trails 5:1 among African-Americans.

In Mississippi, Democrats are probably increasingly regretting the fact that Childers fell just short of the 50% mark in the first round, ending 400 votes from being elected on April 22nd. The runoff is on May 13th, and the Democrats are now spending a lot of resources to live up to the potential revealed last week. The DCCC just reported massive expenditures yesterday: more than $700,000, which includes two media buys, one for a negative and one for a positive ad! This means that the DCCC has spent more than $1,1 million on this seat for now which confirms that they are really committed to picking it up but also that they are not taking the runoff for granted despite Childers' edge in the first round. This also gives a clear edge to Childers since it will be very difficult for a still nearly-broke NRCC to meet the DCCC's spending.

Yet, there is no doubt Democrats have to be frustrated they have to spend this money at all -- not to mention they could have avoided the embarrassing distancing game Childers is playing vis-a-vis national Democrats. As I reported yesterday, the Southern special elections are now featuring Obama, with Republicans hitting Childers (and Cazayoux) over the head with ads linking him to national Democrats.

Childers already denied getting Obama's endorsement earlier this week. Now, he is taking the extra step of running an ad (you can watch it here) referring to "the lies and attacks linking me to politicians I don't know, and have never even met." There is nothing surprising in Childers' attempt to keep the race localized; Bush got 62% in this district and Childers cannot survive were he to be associated too closely with figures like Pelosi, Kerry and Obama. But, as Marc Ambinder reminds us, Obama used to claim that his candidacy would transform dynamics in the South and "make Mississippi a Democratic state" by making African-Americans vote their percentage of the population (which they already do).

Southern special elections now feature Obama

Two of the major storylines that I had been following closely are now coinciding -- the special elections in MS-01 and LA-06 and the debate over Barack Obama's electability. Republicans have been very pessimistic about their chances in both districts (polls have shown Cazayoux leading in LA-06, and Childers came within 400 votes of picking up MS-01 in the first round). And, as we know, desperate times call for desperate ads...

Predictably, the GOP is using the old strategy of tying the local Democratic candidate to national leaders identified as ultra-liberal. For many years, the bogeyman used to be Ted Kennedy; he was soon joined by Hillary Clinton and, last year, by Nancy Pelosi. But in a development that is surprising many by how soon it came about, Kennedy and Clinton appear to have been replaced by... Obama.

Republicans are now running a series of ad "accusing" Cazayoux and Childers of ties to national Democrats, among which "liberal Barack Obama" figures prominently. It all started earlier this week, when Greg Davis released a controversial ad tying his opponent Childers to Obama and to Jeremiah Wright. Since then, the NRCC has released ads of its own; the NRCC's ads are much less controversial than Davis' and they stay away from Wright, concentrating instead on taxes and campaign donations. Here is one that is running in LA-06:


And here is the ad in MS-01 (this is now the second one that seeks to connect Childers to Obama, after Davis's ad using Wright):


Both of these ads include the name of other Democrats, John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi. As such, they are part of an effort to nationalize both of these special elections, take them away from local issues to show voters the big picture of a national fight between two national parties. Given the heavily Republican lean of both MS-01 and LA-06, Cazayoux and Childers have been doing their best to distnace themselves from their leadership in DC and portray themselves as conservative, and this is the predictable response. Note that Democrats do exactly the same thing when they link local Republicans from blue states to George Bush and they blame moderate GOP representatives for voting for a Republican speaker.

What is surprising, however, is the confidence with which Republicans are now using Obama's name. A few months ago, the GOP was concerned that Obama might durably shift party allegiances and lift the entire slate of local Democrats; there is apparently no such fear left in the NRCC's ranks. In fact, Politico details the GOP's plan to tie conservative Democrats with Obama; their article reveals that polling has been conducting in LA-06 showing Obama suffers from a very low approval rating.

Cazayoux and Childers are both expected to win at this point based on polls and on the results of the first round of voting in MS. Were they to lose, it would create a lot of chatter about Obama's down-the-ballot drag; if they win convincingly, however, Obama would likely benefit tremendously in the superdelegate chatter and Clinton's argument that Obama is too risky a proposition in the general election would be undermined. Most of it, of course, would be quite unfair; these districts are very Republican and any attempt at nationalizing the stakes is bound to help the Democratic candidates, not to mention that the GOP is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into saving them. Inversely, the RNCC's failure to use Obama's name successfully would not mean that the Senator has no electability problem; in 2006, the GOP failed at nationalizing any election no matter how hard they tried. The electorate was determined to vote for their local Democratic candidates no matter what.

For now, the GOP is succeeding in creating confusion, and early returns are worrisome for Obama's hope that superdelegates pay no attention to the GOP's confidence to run against him. Travis Childers is now distancing himself from Barack Obama, going as far as denying that Obama has endorsed him.

Down-the-ballot: As we wait for the specials, movement in Nevada

Four days from the special election in LA-06 and as the heat is rising in the MS-01 runoff, the congressional committees are continuing to closely monitor developments. The DCCC reported small expenditures over the week-end, including some for field organizing. Turnout is even more important in special elections than in regular contests, and Democrats have had a clear edge in that metric for months now. The nationalization of the MS-01 race could increase Republican energy, but it could also motivate the districts' Democrats; which of these looks to be more true on May 13th will serve as an early clue as to whether Republicans can energize their base with the threat of an Obama presidency.

For now, we can only be amazed at the size of the DCCC's expenses in these upcoming contests. In a pair of very heavily Republican Southern seats, the DCCC has spent more than $1,1 million. This is quite a significant amount, only possible because of the committee's financial dominance, which allows them to take risks they might otherwise not have taken. The DCCC would have been extremely unlikely to devote this level of attention and resources in previous cycle when resources were scarce. Not to mention that the DCCC forced the NRCC to respond despite the fact that the GOP barely has enough money to defend seats that on paper should be even more endangered than LA-06 and MS-01.

Meanwhile, there is movement in NV-03, which is one of the most vulnerable non-open seats this year. Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then, with January's contested caucuses leading to many new Dem registrants (Politico profiles this battleground district here). Boosted by their new-found edge in the district, Democrats believe they had recruited a strong candidate, local prosecutor Robert Daskas. But the highly-touted Daskas withdrew today, citing familial reasons... and leaving Democrats without a candidate.

But the DCCC might already have a candidate to replace Daskas with: Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. As far as I remember from the 2006 campaign, Titus is a progressive Democrat; but her campaign did not live up to its potential then, as she failed to capitalize on scandals involving eventual winner Gibbons. But there is no question that Titus jumping in the race would keep a bright spotlight on the race and keep Porter very much endangered. An added reason Democrats want to defeat Porter this fall is that the representative looks to be one of the most threatening potential challengers to Harry Reid in 2010.

Finally, some news from Indiana's race for governor. The fact that all pollsters are now working in Indiana to survey the presidential primary means that a number of polls of the gubernatorial contest are also being released. The Democratic primary is also being held on May 6th, and underfunded Jill Long Thompson appears to have an edge against architect Jim Schellinger, despite the latter's heavy establishment supporter. In the general election, three surveys show very tight results:

• Research 2000 finds incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels to be tied with Thompson at 45% and edging out Schellinger 45% to 44%.
• The Mark Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows Daniels up 1% against both Democrats.
• The Indianapolis Star has Thompson edging out Daniels 44% to 43%, but the incumbent prevails over Schellinger 45% to 41%.

There are very few competitive gubernatorial races this year so Indiana's is sure to be watched very closely. Among other reasons to follow this race: With Indiana's state House and Senate split between Democrats and Republicans, the governor's mansion could be essential in determining who benefits most in the next round of redistricting.

Wright is back on the national stage, as MS-01 becomes a test of Obama's electability

Reverend Jeremiah Wright returned to the national stage last week as the North Carolina Republican Party produced an ad hitting Barack Obama for his relationship with Wright. Also, Wright has been delivering a number of speeches and interviews in the past few days. Yesterday, for instance, he spoke at the Michigan NAACP convention and his speech was carried live by CNN; today, he spoke at the National Press Club.

Wright first wants to explain himself and use the media tribune to reach new audiences. He also wants to address his relationship to Obama; the Illinois Senator's distancing himself from Wright made the pastor look like an extremist whose ideas should not be included in of our discourse. At the National Press Club today, Wright described Obama's reaction: “Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites based on polls…. Preachers say what they say because they are pastors."

The Obama campaign was hoping that its March speech on race would ease Wright-related pressure -- at least until Republicans came to use the issue in the general. But they were surely not expecting that Wright himself would make their job more difficult by voluntarily coming forward and prolonging the conversation surrounding him. Not to mention how difficult it is for Obama to convince voters that he disagrees with Wright if Wright himself answers Obama is only doing that because he is a politician and is saying that to be elected.

Of course, Wright has no obligation to put Obama's interest above his own; dragged through the mud for news, the pastor has an opening to make people listen to him and hear the full context of his theology. Those who today profess themselves appalled that Wright would throw Obama under the bus miss the point that Wright does not think of himself as having any allegiance to Obama or to his election, just as Ralph Nader had no any allegiance to the Democratic Party making it hard to understand why 2004 was "a betrayal." On the other hand, Wright and Obama had a long and friendly relationship that led us to believe that Wright would let Obama do his thing for the next few months. This is what makes this such a difficult question to follow.

Republicans are now rushing in to hurt Obama further. The North Carolina Republican party is indicating that its ad will start running tomorrow; and Wright has now worked his way to Mississippi. Last week, Democratic Childers came within 400 votes of picking-up heavily Republican MS-01 in a special election; now, Greg Davis, the trailing Republican candidate, has released an ad blasting Childers for his connection to "liberal Barack Obama." The ad uses footage of a sermon by Wright and accuses Childers of having said nothing when Obama's preacher "was cursing" America. The ad concludes by accusing Childers of choosing Obama over MS-01's "conservative values." (Watch this attack ad here.) After insisting that NC Republicans don't air their ads, McCain is not stepping in this time; Wright has become fair game for Republicans to an extent that was not expected to come about for many more weeks.

The GOP's willingness to use Obama in down-the-ballot ads to hurt Democrats might hurt Obama's chances at the Democratic nomination more than anything Hillary Clinton might do or say in the coming weeks. Clinton needs to convince superdelegates that Obama is too huge a risk in the general election and that she would be a more reliable candidate. Clinton will now be able to tout a high-profile national poll, as the AP/Ipsos survey today shows Clinton leading John McCain 50% to 41% while Obama is ahead 46% to 44%.

That Republican candidates (who were supposedly so afraid that Obama would have coattails for other Democrats; see IL-14) believe Obama is now a drag on down-the-ballot Democrats is a brutal strike to Obama's electability claims. Is this enough for superdelegates to take the bait?

They have resisted similar dire warnings of an Obama meltdown on multiple occasions over the past few weeks, in particular during the first Wright turmoil and during bittergate. In fact, Obama picked up a major superdelegate today, New Mexico Senator Bingaman. Of course, there is no evidence that Obama will be hurt by Wright's return on the national stage or by these Republican ads; in fact, there is no evidence at all that Obama will indeed be a drag on down-the-ballot Democrats. It is entirely possible that Davis's ad backfires on the Republican. If MS-01 voters generally keep a positive image of Obama, they might not be so upset that Childers has gotten his endorsement; the ad might even energize the district's Democrats and African-American voters.

This only means that the runoff of MS-01 will likely be interpreted as a test of Obama's electability. With Childers on the verge of winning in the first round, would a defeat signify that Obama is indeed a drag on local Democrats? This question is in many way unfair: Davis and Childers came in within 3% on April 22nd and the NRCC is mobilizing in the district; there are many other factors that could explain a Davis victory. Furthermore, MS-01 is a very Republican district that voted for Bush with 62%. Any nationalization of this election is likely to hurt Childers insofar as the Democrat's hopes of winning here are predicated on his convincing voters that he is very conservative. But with Davis's decision to drag Obama and Wright to the stage of a Mississippi congressional election, it is almost inevitable that the results will be read through a national lens.

DCCC going for the kill in Southern special elections

The first round of the special election in MS-01, held Tuesday, was obscured by the higher-profile Pennsylvania primary. But the result was truly stunning: In this heavily Republican district that gave 62% of its vote to George Bush, the Democratic candidate came about 400 votes from the 50% mark that would have gotten him elected in the first round and 3% ahead of the GOP candidate. No one was expecting Childers to get this close to an outright majority; there were 6 names on the non-partisan ballot and, even if the race was looking competitive, most of the attention was focused on neighboring LA-06 which holds its special election on May 3rd.

But Childers fell just short and thus the race has to go to a runoff on May 13th. A probably very frustrated DCCC can harbor some regrets: It did not meet the NRCC's final spending in the district and ended up spending half as much, in a clear calculation that the race would go beyond April 22nd. Had they invested a bit more in the final week, those 400 votes could perhaps have been found. But this is a a case in which hindsight is really 20-20.

Tuesday's numbers by no means ensure a Democratic victory in the runoff, and Republicans are likely to fight back to try and close the 3% gap. But consider how concerned the NRCC must be this week. An outspent Democrat came close to a stunning upset against a Republican with no particular baggage in a district we only started paying attention two weeks ago. This paints a truly terrifying picture of what awaits the GOP in November. There are other seats that don't feature on people's competitive list because of their Republican lean, and they are plenty of endangered incumbents who seat on districts that are more vulnerable than MS-01. Trailing the DCCC's cash-on-hand by $37 million, the NRCC does not have the money to compete in most of these districts. If the Democratic candidates have such potential in other supposedly uncompetitive districts, there is little the NRCC will be able to do about it.

For now, the congressional committees are raising the stakes in the two Southern special elections. The DCCC just bought a large media buy against Greg Davis in MS-01; the $220K bring their total to $360K; there is no word for now of the GOP rushing to Davis' rescue after the run-off and the Republican strategists are probably now calculating how much is it worth for them to spend considering how little money they have and how close to a victory Childers is.

In a sign that Democratic strength in MS-01 might make the GOP concentrate more on LA-06, the latest Republican spending is coming from the latter: the NRCC bought a $130K ad against Cazayoux, bringing its total to $250K. But the DCCC more than responded with a $257K media buy against Jenkins as well as much smaller organizing expenditures. The DCCC has now spent a total of $670K in LA-06 -- outspending their counterparts nearly 3:1!

The Republicans are staying afloat here thanks to the spending of other groups such as Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch, which has spent half-a-million in the district. All together, expenditures meant to help Jenkins are superior to those on Cazayoux's side but not by enough to outweigh the fact that the Democrat has been favored to win the seat ever since the two parties selected their nominees.

Pennsylvania results thread: Clinton prevails; Childers 400 votes from stunning pick-up

12:45am: With 98% reporting, Clinton's lead is back down under 10% -- at 9.4% to be exact. Most of the remaining precincts look to be in Chester County in which Obama is ahead, so it does not look like Clinton crossed 10%. However, her win clearly falls within the "credible victory" category I outlined this afternoon -- though it is certainly not enough to change the fundamentals of the race. Clinton had the potential to score a much larger victory, and she reach the level she needed to truly change the discussion. As for delegates, Clinton failed to meaningfully dent into Obama's margin, and this was by far the largest state left, ensuring that the primaries will end with Obama holding on to a very large lead among pledged delegates.

Yet, how can a candidate who just won such a large victory in a crucial state even think of dropping out? Clinton has to be happy with today's narrative since she won based on her strength in rural areas and blue-collar voters. She broke 70% in many counties in Western Pennsylvania (79% in Fayette County). And in the all-important issue of money, it looks like Clinton will be able to generate money out of tonight's victory. Her campaign claims that she had raised $2,5 million from the polls closing as of 11:30pm! More on all of this tomorrow. And also on MS-01, where the last county got Childers even closer to 50% -- about 400 votes short. But this race is on to May 13th.

11:20pm: Clinton is holding firm to her double-digit lead with 88% reporting. In short, the results today are remarkably similar to those of Ohio, with most numbers internal numbers today very similar to those we saw on March 4th. Most things have remained stable in the past 6 weeks: Obama moved numbers very little despite massively outspending Clinton, and Clinton did not move upward among blue-collar voters despite her argument that Wright and bittergate hurt Obama in that group.

10:50pm: The AP has called a runoff in MS-01. With only 1 precinct remaining, Democrats just missed a pick-up in a conservative Southern district. Childers has 49% of the votes versus 46% for Davis but he remains only about 470 votes from the 50% threshold! This will certainly get Childers and the DCCC very frustrated, but it also guarantees that there will be a lot of spending in this race in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama has taken the stage in Indiana, already looking ahead to the now crucial contest of May 6th. He tried to put Pennsylvania behind him, using a tactic Clinton employed in late February when she gave her speeches on nights of defeat from the upcoming state. After congratulating Clinton for her victory (something she did not always do), Obamalaunched into a long charge against John McCain. He then moved on to his attacks against Clinton, drawing many contrasts without mentioning his opponent's name; he called to reject a party that uses the fear of terrorism to win elections (a clear reference to Clinton's 3am and bin Laden ads), tests its message in polls and relies on divisiveness. Meanwhile, Clinton has progressed to a 10% lead with 79% reporting.

10:40pm: In MS-01, Childers is now ahead by 500 votes... but both candidates are now far away from 50%. Results can be found here. The only outstanding county right now is Clay county, which Kerry won with 52% -- so it is very likely that Childers will stay ahead but it is very unlikely that he gets above 50%.

In the Democratic primary, meanwhile, 76% of the votes are in and whether Clinton can inch to a 10% victory will determine much of the coverage of the race in the days ahead. As I explained this afternoon, she needed a double-digits victory, or at least a high single-digit lead to have what I called a "credible victory." But she has certainly not reached the level she would need to change the fundamentals of the race.

10:20pm: Speaking in Philadelphia, Clinton vows to press on, emphasizing that, after a long campaign in which both candidates criss-crossed the state, Pennsylvanians chose her . "The American people don't quit, and they deserve a President who doesn't quit either," she said. She also insisted on the need for people to go to her website and donate... Her campaign is in dire need of money, though they are reporting that they have raised half a million dollar tonight already. With 68% reporting, Clinton is still in single-digits. Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have almost finished reporting.

Meanwhile, exit polls have been updated. Among notable changes: Clinton won big among women (57%) but the surprise is among male voters: Obama only held on to a 4% lead. Helping Clinton, of course, is the fact that 59% of voters are women. Clinton is now ahead 62% to 38% among white voters and broke into double-digits among African-Americans (not that that is a strong showing at all); she is winning big among Catholics (69%) but she is also ahead among Protestants, contrary to what some polls were finding. Clinton wins union households with 59% and voters with no college degree voted for her with 58%; Obama underperformed among voters with a college degree (51%). And in a very important measure, Clinton is found to have won the white vote 56% to 44% -- that is still less than her margin in Ohio, an argument Obama will use when talking to superdelegates.

10:10pm: With 92% of precincts is reporting, it looks like the MS-01 is heading for a runoff with Davis leading Childers by 400 votes, 48% to 47%. More proof that Childers is benefiting from strong turnout from Democratic voters: In Itawamba County, which voted for Bush overwhelmingly in 2004, the Democrats won with 59% today. There are plenty of similar examples.

Some interesting notes on the presidential race: Ben Smith finds that, among Republicans who went to vote in the meaningless GOP primary today, ie. the base of the base of the GOP, only 73% say they will vote for McCain in the general election suggesting that McCain still has some work to do among conservatives. Many of those could be Ron Paul supporters, as the Texas representative is coming in with 16% right now, ahead of Huckabee.

10pm: Quite a suspense in MS-01; with 83% of precincts reporting Davis is now at 49%, barely under the 50% threshold and 1,100 votes ahead of Childers. 4 counties have significant number of votes to count; I just looked back at the 2004 elections and one of these counties voted for Kerry, so Childers will score big there. Of the three others, one voted for Bush at the level of the rest of the district (61%) and two are more Republican than the district at large. On paper this favors Davis but don't forget Childers is significantly overperforming the district's partisan make-up.

In Pennsylvania, half of the precincts are now reporting and Clinton is ahead by 8% still; Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are now reporting at the same level, way ahead of the rest of the state. That suggest that most of the outstanding precincts are from non-urban areas, which should favor Clinton. A CNN commentator is suggesting that a Clinton nomination would make many voters flee the party -- though more Clinton supporters in Pennsylvania are saying they would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee than Obama supporters.

9:50pm: Davis is now ahead 51% to 45% with 71% of precincts reporting. Davis's stronghold, DeSoto County, is now entirely in; Davis won there with 81% (8000 votes), which is 400% of his total margin. There is thus the potential for Childers to hold the Republican under 50%.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead by 8% with 45% of precincts reporting. Obama is performing better in Philadelphia (61% to 39%) but 72% of the city's precincts are already reporting. Clinton is swamping Obama outside of Philadelphia, posting very strong numbers in most of the counties heavy with blue-collar voters, with way above 66% in many counties. It is too early to talk about delegates, but this type of margin will enable Clinton to get strong results in many even-delegate districts.

9:25pm: Clinton's margin of victory is still unclear -- Clinton is leading by 6% with 15% of precincts reporting. It is too early for the Clinton campaign to be triumphant -- though there are indications that her lead might grow significantly because of the simple fact that 41% of Philadelphia is reporting. PA has been called for Clinton, but the race's dynamic going out of this contest is not yet determined.

In Mississippi, there has been a change as counties in which Davis is strong just reported. He is now ahead 50% to 46% with 46% of precincts reporting. If Davis wins tonight, the DCCC will regret not having met the NRCC's spending and waited for the May 13th runoff.

9:10pm: The danger for Obama is that the storyline is that Clinton's win is due to blue collar voters. With 10% reporting, Clinton is ahead by double-digits and Philadelphia (Obama's stronghold) is reporting 28% while Pittsburgh (where Clinton is strong) has not reported at all.
In Mississippi, with 25% reporting, Childers is ahead 53% to 43% -- hanging on above 50%.

9pm: AP calls Pennsylvania primary for Hillary Clinton.
It looks like Clinton's actual winning margins are bigger than those in the exit polls -- which also suggests that the numbers among key groups like white men and blue-collar voters will likely change to suggest larger wins by Clinton. Other good news for Clinton: I said that her winning margin among white men was cut since Ohio, but it looks like it has increased among other key groups like Catholics or union households; this will be used to push the argument of Obama's weakening. With 25% reporting in Philadelphia, Obama is only getting 55% -- a decent margin, but much less than what he would need.

8:45pm: Raw votes are starting to come in, and with 3% of precincts reporting Clinton is ahead 55% to 45%. This includes 11% of Philadelphia -- in which the two candidates are tied right now! Exit polls suggest Obama got a huge victory in Philadelphia, so this implies the most favorable neighborhoods have not reported yet at all (or so Obama should hope).

In Mississippi, there are some very important numbers: With 7% reporting, the Democrat, Childers, is leading 58% to 37% against Davis. It is unclear where those votes are coming from, so things can obviously get much tighter, but the truly significant result for now is that the other candidates are getting 2% at most. This is a surprise considering that the ballot was non-partisan and that the primaries had been very nasty. This means that the odds of a candidate crossing 50% is much higher than previously thought -- we might have a winner tonight.

8:25pm: The all important white male vote will be scrutinized very closely in the coming days, and the exit polls as they stand right now are not bringing her good news: She won the white men vote 53% to 46% (she won the white female vote 64% to 36%); in Ohio, she had won among white men by 19%. One of Clinton's main hopes was to claim that Wright and bitter-gate weakened Obama among white voters; it's going to be hard for her to argue that Obama has slipped dramatically enough to endanger his general election position if these numbers are confirmed in later updates to exit polls. However, Clinton won Catholics with 68% -- another group that we were looking for closely.

8pm: Polls are now closed in both Pennsylvania's primary and MS-01. As expected, there is no call in the Democratic contest; this does not mean that the race is going to end up close. It took a while for Ohio to be called and Clinton won by double-digits. Wolf Blitzer claims that "If Clinton wins tonight she will of course go on," an interesting expectation setting with which the Obama campaign would beg to differ. By the way, Clinton is in Philadelphia, Obama is in Indiana.

The full exit poll just posted on CNN's website shows Clinton narrowly ahead by 4-5%. This now looks to be the late wave of exit polls -- which tend to be much less skewed than the second wave. Among interesting numbers: 14% of voters changed their registration to Democratic since January, and 60% of them favored Obama (So much for those who criticize Clinton for riding the Rush Limbaugh Operation Chaos wave). Clinton leads by 14% among voters with no college degree; Obama leads by 8% among voters with a college degree. These numbers will be refined through the evening.

7pm: In Pennsylvania, a group sought to keep the polls open in Philadelphia until 10pm but the motion was denied, confirming that the polls will close (and results will start tricking in) at 8pm. In Mississippi, I reported that polls had closed but, as a commenter correctly points out, they close at 7pmCT -- so not for another hour.

Original post: The polls close at 7pm in Mississippi and at 8pm in Pennsylvania. Most of the suspense, of course, is in the latter. The first exit polls are starting to leak -- and as always these numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt since they include only part of the day. And please keep in mind that this is only the second wave of exit polls and those have often been too favorable to Obama: The ones from Ohio showed a tie on March 4th, and Obama was found to be leading in Massachusetts on February 5th (he lost both states by double-digits). In fact, Pollster.com's Blumenthal finds that 18 out of 20 second wave exit polls were too skewed to Obama's favor by an average of 7%.

That said, Fox reports that these early exits have Clinton leading 58% to 42% among gun owners, with Obama ahead 54% to 46% among voters with a college degree -- perhaps a smaller margin than he would need. CNN adds that these exits are finding Clinton is ahead 55% to 45% among white men, that Obama getting as massive a victory among black voters as ever (92-8) and that those who have decided in the past week heavily broke for Clinton. As for full results, there are being leaked indirectly, they don't agree with each other and thus don't look reliable. The National Review (which often gets correct exit polls first) is reporting that exit polls have Obama narrowly ahead. Drudge is showing a narrow Clinton lead but Marc Ambinder notes those are the first wave of exit polls -- not even the second.

For now, you can read my guidelines of what to expect tonight here.

Setting tonight's guidelines: Will Pennsylvania's primary be tighter than Mississippi's special?

This is the third Election Day in which Barack Obama has been in a position to bury Hillary Clinton; he came short on January 8th in New Hampshire and failed to do so again in Ohio and Texas on March 4th. From now on, of course, every Election Day could mean instant death for the Clinton campaign who has no room for error all the way until June 3rd. To continue using the metaphor of a tennis match, Obama has quadruple match points -- and some of them (North Carolina, Oregon) are on his serve.

Clinton is hoping that a solid showing today in Pennsylvania will help her finally get some momentum and head into the May contests in a strong position. Polls over the past few days suggest that Clinton is heavily favored to win, but the margin of victory is more unclear; few polls are showing anything more than a 10% lead and the key to tonight's results seems to reside in the turnout of groups that typically favor Clinton (blue-collar whites, Catholics).

The issue, of course, is defining what a strong showing would consist in. There are, as was the case in Ohio and Texas, three separates issues to consider: (1) What result does she need to stay in the race? (2) What result would make her claims of victory credible? (3) What result would change the fundamental dynamics of the race? It's worth addressing them in turn.

(1) What Clinton needs to simply stay in the race is perhaps the hardest question to answer because it fully depends on Clinton's determination; only she can decide to bring an end to the race by dropping out. It would be very difficult for her to stay in if she loses Pennsylvania; but what about a narrow victory (say 3-4)? That would be interpreted as a very weak result for the Clinton campaign; but would she pull the plug?

(2) The threshold of a credible victory is fairly clearly defined: Clinton needs a double-digit victory, or at the very least a very high single-digit lead. Under this "Ohio threshold," the Obama campaign will claim to have exceeded expectations and pride itself on a moral victory. Above it, it will be nearly impossible for Obama to spin this into a decent showing and questions will only build as to why Obama is unable to close this off.

(3) To change the fundamentals of the race, Clinton needs much more than a double-digit victory. Her surprising comeback in Ohio, after all, allowed her to stay in the race but it did not alter the primary's basic dynamics. Backed into a corner, Hillary needs a dramatic showing to get some air -- and that involves exceeding expectations with a comfortable double-digit victory of at least 15% and she also needs exit polls to show Obama has come in very weakly among white blue-collar voters. Even then, of course, Clinton would remain the heavy underdog but she would finally have succeeded in moving the race meaningfully.

These measures might seem unfair, of course, considering that Obama has massively outspent Clinton; not to mention that, considering how close she is from the exit, it is remarkable that Clinton is still standing -- let alone in a position to win a primary as important as Pennsylvania's. But this year's contests have been defined by demography: Both Democratic candidates have their core constituencies, and neither has made significant inroads in the other's base groups. If anything, African-Americans are more determined to vote for Obama than they were in January and downscale whites are looking more solidly in Clinton's camps than they were at the end of February.

In this trenchware warfare, the slightest weakness in either candidate's core groups have cost the candidates greatly (Clinton in Wisconsin) but unusual displays of strengths have yielded great rewards (Clinton in NH and OH, Obama in SC). If Clinton blinks again, it could prove fatal to her campaign; but if she keeps her groups mobilized today it could be very damaging to the Obama campaign.

Mississippi's 1st district: Also today, voters in the MS-01 are going to the polls for the first round of the special election to replace Rep. Wicker. This has become a surprisingly contentious election considering how red the district is; the NRCC have dumped almost $300,000, more than twice the amount spent by the DCCC, testifying to how panicked the GOP has become at the prospect of unexpectedly losing a conservative Southern seat.

The two main candidates are Democrat Childers and Republican Davis -- but the ballot will feature 6 candidates total, including two important politicians (one from each party) who lost to Childers and Davis last month in the primary for the actual November election. They are not campaigning for the special election, but their presence on the ballot makes it almost impossible for either of the main candidates to get elected tonight.

If no one reaches 50% today, a runoff will be held on May 13th; but tonight's results are certainly very important for they will tell us how strong a base vote Democrats have and how much bitterness there still is among Republicans after a very contentious primary. Depending on the answer to these questions, the DCCC might decide to invest more in the district or to give up the fight -- and that will go a long way toward determining what will happen in the runoff.

Congressional diary: Is the NRCC abandonning Woody Jenkins?

Call this round for the Democrats? Two days ago, the DCCC upped the stakes in the special elections of LA-06 and MS-01 by buying more than $100,000 of ads in both districts; this brought the Democrats' total in Louisiana to $270,000 more than the double of what Republicans are spending in their effort to keep a seat that voted overwhelmingly for Bush. This forced the cash-starved nearly-broke RNCC to consider how much more they could conceivably spend without emptying their coffers.

Yesterday night, the NRCC filed papers declaring it had met the DCCC's investment -- but only in Mississippi, with a significant ad buy of $150,000 that brings the Republican total in the district to more than $232,000. This is twice a much as the Democrats have invested in the district for now, but there is no reason Democrats will stop, particularly if they can force Republicans to go for broke. Consider that the spending spree is starting earlier than usual. In IL-14, the first salvos were fired on March 1st, two weeks before the special election. The runoff in MS-01 will be held on May 13th. It is difficult to imagine the NRCC meeting the Democrats' spending for the next 4 weeks.

For now, however, the GOP has not met the Democrats' increased spending in LA-06. If they do not do so in the coming days, it could be a sign that the NRCC has decided to abandon Woody Jenkins to his fate, probably sealing a second Democratic pick-up of a very red district within 2 months.

Despite the fact that LA-06 and MS-01 are both very conservative districts, the GOP have been in trouble in the former for a while now, and Woody Jenkins' is widely considered a flawed candidate who cannot win this election; in fact, Republicans were telling the press ten days ago that they might not do anything at all to help Jenkins. The GOP is not as desperate in MS-01, and the one poll that has been released shows a toss-up -- it is thus logical that the NRCC is looking to defend that district.

To make matters worse for the GOP, it looks like their fundraising troubles are not just confined to the congressional committees. Bloomberg has come out with a fundraising analysis of the first quarter numbers to conclude that Democrats have outraised Republicans in "28 of the tightest 38 districts." Four Republican incumbents were outraised by their challenger (Walberg in MI-07, Kuhl in NY-29, Schmidt in OH-02 and Reichert in WA-08), and Democrats also outraised the GOP in 9 Republican-held open seats. With numbers like this, the Republican candidates will truly need the NRCC's help in the fall, especially as the DCCC will add to the unbalance by pouncing the most vulnerable incumbents with multi-million ad campaigns. But the GOP struggle's to meet the Democrats' spending in LA-06 is a reminder of the increasing difficulty the NRCC will find itself in.

Meanwhile, jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff is continuing to rock the Colorado Senate race. A few days after the Denver Post ran a very damaging article against GOP candidate Bob Schaffer's connecting to Abramoff, the Denver Post is explaining that Democratic candidate Mark Udall received two contributions from PACs connected to Abramoff; Republicans are also charging this led Udall to vote against anti-gambling legislation.

There is no question that the allegations against Schaffer are much more damning and they concern much more direct interactions, but the more Republicans can muddy the discussion on ethics the higher Schaffer's chance to survive this building scandal. The DSCC is working to make sure Schaffer cannot just put this behind him; they have produced an ad that hits the Republican for his 1999 trip and it is a fairly effective spot considering that the allegations the ad references are more serious and better documented than those of the average attack ad. It does not look like the clip will air on television, so Democrats are holding their fire for now.

The DCCC ups the stakes in Louisiana and Mississippi

News broke from the Louisiana and Mississippi special elections just a few hours after I reported that concerned Republicans (and GOP-supporting groups) were rushing to rescue endangered these red Southern districts: The NRCC has bought its first ad in MS-01 and a group called Freedom's Watch has done the same attacking the Democratic nominee in LA-06.

But it is dangerous to provoke an adversary when they have seemingly free flowing ressources and you are nearly broke, and news broke tonight that the DCCC is responding quickly to the Republicans' move. Swing State Project provides the details: The DCCC has just bought a $104K ad buy in LA-06 (plus some direct mail), bringing its total to $270K, more than the double of what Republicans are spending in their effort to keep a seat that voted overwhelmingly for Bush.

The DCCC is going even further in LA-06 and filing an official FEC complaint against the NRCC. The complaint alleges that the GOP committee coordinated with Freedom's Watch; both ads attacking Cazayoux use similar attacks to charge the Democrat with wanting to raise taxes. The WaPo article adds that, "The Democratic officials said the advertising script carried an electronic identifier that shows it originated in the Republican committee."

More surprising is the DCCC's decision to invest in MS-01, with an ad buy of more than $125,000 -- a significant amount in a seat that was on no one's radar screen until a few days ago and in a seat in which the NRCC fired the first shot (will they come to regret it?). Of course, it is not that surprising when one considers how much money the DCCC has in the bank and the small number of seats they are really worried about losing in November (though GOP chances are looking up in places like TX-22). They have resources to invest in many districts that usually go unchallenged -- and MS-01 was an obvious choice considering that a poll last week confirmed that the race was a toss-up. You can be sure the DCCC will test Republican seats in places where the GOP looks even better than it does here... Democrats know the NRCC will not be able to respond everywhere, so why not have a go at it and see whether numbers move?

The DCCC's move forces us to pay attention to MS-01 in a way that even the NRCC's ad buy had not brought about yet. The district's massive Republican lean combined with the fact that Greg Davis is not a flawed candidate the way Woody Jenkins is (in LA-06) give the Republicans an obvious advantage here, one that even last week's poll and the NRCC's move did not seem to question. Those news were alarming, but they were merely the signs of a defensive Republican Party. But we now have to confront the very real possibility that Republicans will have lost three heavily red seats in the space of two months (counting IL-14). Even if the GOP holds on two both LA-06 and MS-01 (the latter still leans GOP at this hour, though the former favors a pick-up), at what cost will they have done so? And how can they possibly hope to pull out similar defenses in late October unless they significantly pick-up their fundraising?

Before they worry about such questions, the NRCC is confronted to more pressing choices: What do they do about MS-01 and LA-06? If they meet the DCCC's totals, they will fall in a deeper financial hole knowing that Democrats will have little trouble raising the stakes even more. But they can ill afford to give up on two seats that are this staunchly Republican. So will they concentrate on MS-01, which is obviously much more easily salvageable?

Special election watch: Republicans rush to save Southern seats

A week from the special election in Mississippi's 1st district and less than three weeks from Louisiana's 6th, national Republicans are getting increasingly worried at the prospect of losing not one but two staunchly conservative Southern districts.

MS-01, first, since this is a district we have talked about much less. On the ballot on April 22nd will be six names with no party affiliation indicated. The top two candidates are Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis who won competitive contests in the regular primaries last months. If no one gets 50% on April 22nd, a run-off will be held on May 13th. Bush won this seat overwhelmingly in 2004 -- and this is the last place Republicans were expecting to have to compete in.

But MS-01 is the type of district that has very deep Democratic roots and where many local officials still call themselves Democrats. A poll last week suggested that the race could be very competitive. And all of this has forced the NRCC to jump in the race with a medium-sized ad buy. The NRCC's ad alleges that Childers mismanaged a nursing home that he runs with his wife. (you can view the ad here). “Childers doesn’t care about seniors... He profits from them,” charges the NRCC's ad.

You can be sure that the GOP would not have invested here had they not been sure that they needed to take emergency action: The NRCC has very little money, a ton of endangered seats and it does not want to have to spend the next few months defending seats that are supposed to be as safe as MS-01. Consider also that the DCCC did not fire the first shot here as it did in LA-06, making the NRCC's choice to invest funds even more dramatic.

In LA-06, meanwhile, the situation continue to look very worrisome for Republican nominee Woody Jenkins. The DCCC has invested more than $150,000 here, forcing the GOP to respond in a weakly produced ad. There had been talk just a few days before the NRCC's investment that they would abandon Jenkins to his fate, too concerned that his controversial profile made him unelectable. Today, the Cazayoux campaign released a new internal poll that show the Democrat leading Jenkins 49% to 42%, confirming the GOP's worst fears.

Now, Freedom's Watch, a conservative independent group, has launched itself in the LA-06 battle by airing a negative ad against Cazayoux (you can view it here). This spot picks up where the NRCC left off, accusing Cazayoux of favoring tax hikes. It looks a bit less like a caricature than the NRCC's ad, however, and a second ad with the same message could start hurting Cazayoux as it could start drilling in the idea that this (very conservative) Democrat wants to raise taxes.

Freedom's Watch is a 501c and is not allowed to directly come out supporting or opposing any candidate. It has to only address an issue, leading to the ad's silly conclusion which urges viewers to call Cazayoux's office to urge him to not raise taxes... Another thing to consider is that Freedom's Watch advocacy director was responsible for the NRCC's independent expenditures in 2006, suggesting that this is a group we will hear (and see) a lot from in the coming months.

In Senate news, finally, two interesting polls were released over the past few days:

• In Louisiana, a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey shows Mary Landrieu beating John Kennedy by twelve percent, 50% to 38%.
  

• In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds that incumbent Elizabeth Dole leads challenger Kay Hagan 52% to 39% and Jim Neal 51% to 37%.

The North Carolina Senate race is a long shot for Democrats, who have to bank on something dramatic happening that makes this race competitive -- almost like Virginia in 2006 -- and who have to deal with the fact that this contest was one of their recruitment disasters of the year. In Louisiana, this is the second recent poll showing Landrieu up double-digits, after last week's Rasmussen poll. LA is supposed to be the most (only?) endangered Democratic-held Senate seat of the cycle, so it is not a good sign for the GOP that they can't even hold under 50%.

Let the games begin: Congressional committees launch the Lousiana war

For the third time this cycle, the DCCC has forced the hand of its GOP counterpart. After OH-05 and IL-14, the two congressional committees are now engaged in an all-out battle for the special election in Louisiana's very conservative 6th district, featuring Republican Woody Jenkins and Democrat Don Cazayoux.

As recently as Tuesday, the GOP was supposedly considering giving up on Jenkins; not only are they not confident in his ability to rally moderate Republicans, but they simply do not have the money in the bank to defend yet another seat. But the NRCC apparently realized it could not afford to lose a second seat that George Bush won so handily in 2004. The temptation to stay out evaporated as soon as the DCCC fired the first shot this week with a $111,000 ad buy to air this negative ad against Jenkins.

"Woody’s company was hit with 20 tax liens for failing to pay taxes on time," charges the ad before attacking him on the national sales tax. The DCCC's spot stays away from some of the most controversial issues surrounding Jenkins, particularly his ties with Klansman David Duke. Those connections were actually brought up in the GOP primaries by one of Jenkins's rival, so do not be surprised if Democrats decide to hammer the issue in the run-up to the May 3rd special election.

The DCCC's ad is neither powerful nor catchy. But it is stellar in comparison to the GOP's response spot... With surprising rapidity, the RNCC purchased a $110,000 ad buy today to attack Cazayoux with this spot. The GOP ad is as close to the caricature of a Republican attack ad as it could be. Focused entirely on taxes, it throws in the l-word, lists a litany of taxes Cazayoux allegedly voted to raise in the Louisiana legislature and then attempts a rather weak name-association with the tagline: "Instead of Don Cazayoux... Don Tax you." This slogan/'pun' is then repeated a second time. Even for a conservative district that is weary of liberals, it is a bit too obvious that the Republican ad was produced in a very short amount of time.

Sitting on a massive warchest, House Democrats can afford to test the resilience of Republicans in a variety of districts, even some that are not supposed to be competitive. The GOP has barely been able to respond for now and has already dilapidated a lot of money over the past few months responding to the DCCC's provocations in Illinois and Ohio. The fact that the same scenario is now taking place in Louisiana (and possibly in Mississippi as well, but more on that in the coming days) could put the NRCC's in even greater financial difficulty.

This sequence of events also confirms how difficult the fall could be for House Republicans when all 435 seats will be up for grabs the same night -- rather than this trickle of special elections. If the DCCC uses its huge cash-on-hand to launch attacks ads left and right, the GOP will not be able to respond in many targeted districts; it will have to choose those that look the most salvageable and leave the Republican candidates (or incumbents) to their fate in all others. This also serves to explain why the GOP has been suffering from recruitment difficulties, as potential candidates realize that they will get very little help from the national party.

Meanwhile, things are getting interesting in another very conservative Southern special election, MS-01 (formally held by now-Senator Wicker). This contest is taking place on April 22nd. A few weeks ago, Democrat Travis Childrers and Republican Greg Davis won their party's primaries for the regular election to be held in November, and they are the only ones campaigning for the special election. But the special election has no primaries or run-off (whoever gets the most votes wins) and the ballot will feature the names of the candidates Childrers and Davis defeated in the primaries. Further confusing voters, the ballot is non-partisan.

All of this could certainly lead to surprising results on April 22nd. An internal poll for the Childers campaign shows a 2% toss-up when all names are read. But who knows how many people will go out to vote for those Democrats and Republicans who are no longer running? A Davis victory on the 22nd would make this seat a safe hold for the GOP in November, but if Democrat Childrers manages to benefit from GOP divisions and finds his way to victory he will remain a vulnerable target for Republicans in the fall when only Davis and him will be on the ballot.