Tuesday polls: Stunning toss-up in Indiana, as Obama leads in MI and CO's Udall continues to inch ahead (Updated with new LA Times poll!)

Update: Well, well, well, that Newsweek poll has company! A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll finds a 12% lead for Obama, 49% to 37%. In a four-way race including Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, Obama is ahead 48% to 33%. The key, once again, is the poll's partisan breakdown: 39% of voters identify themselves as Democrats versus only 22% as Republicans. That is simply too big a difference for McCain to hope to survive.

Original post: After yesterday's wave of good poll news for Obama that showed the Democrat gaining in swing states like New Hampshire and in traditionally red state like Alaska, today's shocker comes in the form of a SUSA poll from Indiana -- not the first state you think of when you wonder where the next exciting presidential poll will come from:

• In a state in which George Bush crushed Al Gore and John Kerry, SUSA finds a toss-up race, with Obama edging out McCain 48% to 47%.
  
• No surprise as to the reason: There is a 16% swing from the partisan breakdown of 2004. That year, 46% of voters were Republicans and 32% were Democrats. In this poll, 38% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats and 36% as Republicans.

It is increasingly evident how big an obstacle to McCain's election this shift in partisan breakdown, about which I have written numerous times before, has become. It is what explains Obama's 15% lead i a recent Newsweek poll, and what also accounts for Obama's gains in a number of red states like Indiana. Keep in mind that the Illinois Senator has chosen to run his first ad of the general election in this state which should not be dismissed: While it doesn't cost him that much to run ads in similarly red Montana and Nebraska, Indiana does have an expensive media market (Indianapolis) and the Obama campaign has to be at least somewhat confident that they can tighten the race here and force McCain to play defense.

The day's second good news for Obama comes from Michigan:

• PPP finds Obama to be ahead 47% to 38%, with 78% of Democrats supporting him versus 74% of Republicans supporting McCain.
  

This will not come as a surprise to regular readers of this blog who know that I tend to view Michigan as more dangerous for Obama than Pennsylvania, but this is the biggest lead Obama has ever posted in a Michigan poll. The state is likely to remain competitive to the end, just as it did in the past two elections, but it would be a huge boost to Obama if the state at least comes back to its Democratic leanings. We will have to wait for confirmation from other polls to see whether PPP marks Michigan's return to its more traditional role of a lean-blue state or whether it overstates Obama's support.

The third and last presidential poll of the day comes from New Mexico:

• Obama narrowly leads McCain 49% to 46% in the latest SUSA poll, based on a 54% gender gap and the support of 63% of Hispanics. The two were tied at 44% last month.

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll of the race found an 8% lead for Obama, in what is one of two Gore states to have switched over to Bush in 2004. Polls here remain tight, though Democrats are hoping that claiming an early edge New Mexico and Iowa will put them within striking distance of the White House (6 evs) before contesting more difficult red states. The fact remains that while Obama is putting states like Indiana and Alaska in play he has not been able to open a consistent and clear lead in states that ought to swing to his side more easily if he has a national advantage. And that's what keeps this race so suspenseful.

Finally, four down-the-ballot polls:

• In Colorado's senatorial race, Democrat Tom Udall has opened a 9% lead (46-37) against Republican Bob Schaffer according to an internal poll released by the DSCC.
  

• In Indiana's gubernatorial race, Gov. Daniels leads Democratic challenger Long Thompson 50% to 45% (in the SUSA poll).
  

• In Nebraska's senatorial race, former Gov. Mike Johanns crushes Scott kleeb 60% to 33% in Rasmussen's latest poll. He ld 55% to 40% last month. Johanns's favorability rating stands at 63%, versus 50% for Kleeb.
  

• Finally, PPP accompanied its presidential poll with the uninteresting finding that Carl Levin is leading 54% to 32% in his uninteresting match-up against Republican Jack Hoogendyck.

Long Thompson was unexplicably trailing big in the last 2 polls of the race, though this survey is a return to what we have seen most of the year: Mitch Daniels is a vulnerable incumbent though he has somewhat recovered in the past year, making this race unpredictable. As for the Nebraska race, it remains the Democrat's big disappointment of the year as Bob Kerrey's running would have made this one of the hottest pick-up opportunities of the year rather than a blowout which Kleeb has little chance of tightening. In fact, the Democrat himself probably views this as a resume-boosting name ID-enhancing run.

As for the Colorado poll, it is an internal survey but this is the second poll after Rasmussen's that shows Udall extending his lead a bit. Democrats have long been hoping that Udall will repeat the gubernatorial scenario of Gov. Ritter in 2006, when the Democrat unexpectedly opened a huge lead in what was expected to be a close open seat race and he never looked back. The environment is still as bad for the GOP and the state has only trended more blue in the past two years but Udall has been unable to inch ahead of Schaffer. If these latest polls are confirmed, however, it will be a very positive development for Democrats.

Tuesday polls: Why is Washington polled more frequently than OH and FL? (Updated with... 2nd poll from WA!)

A few surveys were released over the past day but it is worth noting that we have still not gotten a comprehensive set of state polls since Barack Obama clinched the nomination. The most recent polls from FL, OH and PA, for instance, all date back to mid-May. Yet, the trickle of surveys from second-tier races continues. We at least got a new poll from Michigan, which is shaping to be one of the most premier battleground states this year:

• In Michigan, Rasmussen finds Obama with his first lead since early February -- though it remains within the margin of error, 45% to 42%. Last month, McCain edged Obama by 1%, a finding confirmed by many other Michigan surveys. Obama also has a slightly lower favorability rating than his rival.
  

• In New York, Quinnipiac finds Obama to be leading 50% to 36%. This remains perhaps tighter than Democrats would like to see in the Empire State, but it is a slight progression for Obama and a significant improvement among white voters.
  

• In Washington, which has long been one of Obama's strongest states, SUSA shows him crushing McCain 56% to 39%.
  
• He gets 89% of registered Democrats (!) and the margin of his lead is entirely due to the shift of the partisan breakdown (40% Dem-28% GOP versus 36-33 in the 2004 exit polls).

• Update: Well, it seems I chose the headline of this entry appropriately as we got a second poll from Washington this afternoon. This one (released by Rasmussen) shows Obama leading McCain 53% to 35%, a larger margin than SUSA's poll (and up from 11% last month), confirming that the state's 10 electoral votes are more solidly in the blue column than they were in 2000 and 2004.
  

• In Georgia, finally, a new Rasmussen poll finds McCain leading by a substantial though certainly not overwhelming margin, 51% to 41%.

Michigan is shaping up as one of the blue states that Obama is the most endangered in and the biggest along with Pennsylvania. Obama's hope to have a second path to the White House that would accomodate losing Ohio and Florida, a path that wins the Southwest and perhaps Virginia, would only be valid if he can hold on to the 38 electoral votes that come in PA and MI, and up to today it is the latter states that has looked more troubling for the Illinois Senator. Democrats hope that Obama will regain his footing as the conversation turns to the economy and we will be monitoring Michigan numbers very closely.

That Obama has a stronger lead in Washington than he does in New York State confirms the Illinois Senator's strength in the West. This is often coupled with a relative weakness in states East of the Mississippi (starting with the Appalachia region) but as long as Obama holds on in the Northeast and strongly contests Ohio there is a lot of potential for him in Western states. Georgia, meanwhile, is an interesting state as it is part of the "second-tier" of Southern states (along with SC and MS) that some Democrats believe will get competitive once Obama conducts a massive registration drive and drives up black turnout. The numbers are not there right now for Obama to pull this off, and we will know whether he can make those states competitive as much from registration data as from surveys.

Meanwhile, four down-the-ballot polls find no surprises -- though some of these findings are important:

• In New Jersey, Senator Lautenberg is ahead 48% to 39% against former Rep. Zimmer in a new Quinnipiac poll. Independents favor the challenger by 8%.
  

• Washington's gubernatorial race is still a toss-up, with Christine Gregoire edging Dino Rossi 50% to 47% in SUSA's latest poll.

• Update: A second poll of this match-up was released by Rasmussen and finds Gregoire ahead by 7%, 50% to 43%. That's actually an improvement for the Republican.
  

• Indiana's gubernatorial race also favors the incumbent as a Benenson internal poll taken for the Long Thompson campaign finds the challenger trailing Gov. Daniels 46% to 39%. This is the second poll of the race in three days. The previous one found Daniels ahead by 16%.
  

• In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss looks safe as he beats his 3 Democratic challengers by margins ranging from 15% to 23% in a Rasmussen poll.

The New Jersey Senate race looks like it might remain tight for a few months, and winning the Democratic primary has not given Lautenberg a bounce. This is the second poll in a week that finds him up single-digits. In fact, it might have highlighted the problem of his age. But Democrats should feel no panic and Republicans should develop no hope about a New Jersey race until early October. If there is any lesson we learned in 2004 and 2006, it is that New Jersey likes to tease Republicans. Yet, the second poll finding a competitive race is certainly an unexpected and positive development for the NRSC.

There is no better confirmation of the tightness of the Gregoire-Rossi rematch than the fact that, in the same sample, Barack Obama leads by 17% while Christine Gregoire struggles to stay ahead. Polls taken since 2004 have shown that this race will go down to the wire and that Washington Republicans have not forgotten the shady recounts of 2004.

As for Georgia, it looks like Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, will get his wish and Chambliss will be part of his "firewall" to salvage 41 seats. Of course, Georgia was never really on the Democrats' target list and the DSCC would love nothing more than or Ensign to cultivate this 15% margin rather than protect more endangered seats.

Non-Senate down-ballot: Who will beat Don Young first?

In my most recent House ratings, I described the disastrous state of the New York Republican Party and its inability to truly contest the three seats Democrats picked up in 2006 and that were supposed to be at the top of the Republican wish-list. I confess that I had not paid enough attention to NY-20, where the GOP believes it has found a strong candidate to take on Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in a district Bush won by 8% in 2004. They are running former state Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell who has the advantage of being very wealthy and thus having the means to self-fund his candidacy.

Gillibrand is one of the House's best fund-raisers (perhaps even the freshman Democrat who has raised the most) and thus Treadwell's wealth will not allow him to swamp her with his spending, but it will come in handy to keep tabs on her own spending and keep the race competitive. In fact, Treadwell is already running ads, months before his party's primary. This is early for a House challenger to go up on air, and Treadwell is clearly intending to send the message that he ought to be taken seriously and that he will have the resources necessary to compete -- whether or not the NRCC has any funds left to come to his rescue.

Also today, we got three House polls about two districts:

• In AK-AL, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz beats incumbent Don Young 58% to 38%! But Young also trails in his party's primary against Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell, 37% to 34%. In a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up, the Republican leads 43% to 38%.
  

• In KY-03, a SUSA poll shows that Rep. Yarmuth trounces former GOP Rep. Northup (whom he narrowly defeated in 2006) 57% to 40%!
  

• In response, the Northup campaign released an internal poll also taken early June that shows the Democrat leading 51% to 43%.

It looks certain that Young will no longer represent Alaska come January 2009. The only question seems to be who will beat him first? If Republicans keep him as their candidate, Democrats will surely capture the seat. There have been other polls that have shown Young trailing Berkowitz by double-digits. But if Parnell, backed by the Club for Growth, manages to become his party's nominee, he will have transformed this lean takeover seat into a much better deal for Republicans. It is rare for the Club for Growth to be in a position to help the party by toppling an incumbent (remember PA-Sen in 2004 and RI-Sen in 2006), and it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

Yet, it does look like Alaska voters have gone sour on the GOP generally, as the latest Senate poll shows Stevens struggling and we have seen a few surveys with Obama surprisingly close to John McCain. Don't forget that the corruption scandal that is sinking Young and Stevens has also endangered many other Anchorage GOP lawmakers and, while Parnell is not associated to the investigation, there were plenty of examples in 2006 of "cleaner" Republicans being tarnished by the mere association with the corrupt incumbent (see OH-18, for instance).

As for KY-03, there is a reason the Northup campaign did not release its internal poll until SUSA found even worse numbers. Republicans believe that Yarmuth's victory in 2006 was an accident, despite the fact that this is the only Kentucky district to have voted for John Kerry over George Bush. Northup's decision to run for her old seat was seen as a major victory for Republicans, as the moderate former representative has the name recognition and profile necessary to take back this district. Yet, the fact that she cannot hold Yarmuth under 50% despite the fact that her own name recognition is probably as good (if not better) than her rivals has to be worrisome for her campaign.

Finally, two gubernatorial polls bring good news for both parties:

• In Missouri, Rasmussen finds that Democratic Attorney General is increasing his lead over his two Republican opponents, leading Rep. Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman by 20% and 22% respectively.
  

• In Indiana, however, Republican Governor Daniels has opened a 51% to 35% lead over Jill Long Thompson according an Indiana Legislative Insight poll.

Both seats are currently held by Republicans, and both are heavily contested. This is in fact the first poll released since Long Thompson won the Democratic primary (by the thinnest of margins) and it contradict the previous surveys that found a toss-up race with the incumbent greatly endangered. We will have to see other surveys to know whether this one can be classified as an outlier or whether the election is swinging towards Daniels.

As for Missouri, it is not surprising to see Nixon ahead. After all, the Democrat is well-known statewide and who has been campaigning for this position since 2004. But the huge margin by which he is now leading in numerous polls testifies to Missouri's swing towards the Democratic Party and is reminiscent of other unexpectedly easy wins that Democrats enjoyed in open seat races in 2006 (Minnesota's senatorial race between Klochubar and Kennedy and Colorado's gubernatorial race). Nixon's increasingly comfortable lead is a very good sign for Barack Obama's chances in the Show Me State.

Down ballot: Fossella headed towards exit, fields set in NC and IN

Last week, Rep. Fossella (NY-13) was arrested for DWI in Arlington, Virginia, with his breath test resulting in a 0.17, twice the Virginia legal limit. This caused a mini-scandal but Fossella was not immediately considered to be in that much trouble; after all other politicians (starting with Bush) have survived DWI charges. But reports are emerging (for instance from the Washington Post) that there could be much more to the story, and that what started as a drunken arrest could be the prelude to a sex scandal.

Now, speculation is increasing that Fossella will soon announce that he is not running for re-election, perhaps even resigning before his term is finished. Governor Paterson would then have to decide whether to hold a special election or just wait for November. The Washington Post's piece starts with "The consensus on Capitol Hill is: Vito is finito" and Roll Call is already reviewing the names of potential candidates that could replace him.

This district covers all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn and is the only seat of New York City represented by a Republican. An open seat in NY-13 would immediately become one of the Democrats' top opportunities. Not only does it lean Democratic but New York Republicans have been slowly but surely declining into oblivion and their troubles would only be worsened in a presidential year.

So much has gone wrong for the NRCC this cycle -- recruitment, special elections, accumulation of open seats, fundraising trouble, first year in the minority and scandals like this -- that a double-digit gain for House Democrats is looking increasingly certain.

Meanwhile, the congressional committees have lost all sense of restraint in the MS-01 special election; those 400 votes that Childers was missing to get to a majority on April 22nd are costing a lot to the DCCC which appears to be reporting new expenditures every day with 6 more to go. After a new $200,000 report tonight, the DCCC's total is brought to $1.6 million (here's one of the recent ads that the DCCC is running against Greg Davis); the NRCC has spent a little over a million.

That both parties are spending this much suggests that the race is remaining very tight (they are conducting polls, so they know what is going); no matter how close to a victory Childers was 2 weeks ago, Greg Davis definitely retains a chance to keep this district. Remember that Davis is not a deeply flawed candidate the way Oberweis was in IL-14 and Jenkins was in LA-06 and MS-01 is more Republican than both of these districts.

Finally, the North Carolina and Indiana primaries yesterday did more than damage Clinton's chances for the presidential nomination. They also set the field for some important down-the-ballot races. I alluded to the victors in the results thread last night but here is a quick rundown:

• NC-Sen: State Senator Kay Hagan crushed Jim Neal and can now run against incumbent Elizabeth Dole. While the Republican is heavily favored, most polls show that Hagan could make a move under the right circumstances. A second-tier race with potential to turn more competitive.

• NC-Gov: Both favorites held on to their parties' nomination by narrow margins. Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Patrick McCrory won the Republican nod. This sets up a much more competitive race than was expected a few months ago. McCrory was the only Republican with a chance of winning in a state that is red at the federal level but often votes Democratic in local races.

• IN-Gov: Former representative Jill Long Thompson won the tightest race of the night (50.3%), overtaking Schellinger's lead in the last minutes as Lake County finished reporting. She will now face Governor Mitch Daniels to become the state's first female governor. Polls indicate a toss-up race.

• House races: All incumbents won their re-election battles last night despite an uncommonly high number of competitive races. In the most watched race of the night, North Carolina anti-war Republican Walter Jones survived a challenge from a pro-war candidate 60% to 40%; in Indiana's 7th district, Andre Carson held on with a plurality of the vote a few weeks after winning his grandmother's seat in a special election. Both are favored to win the general election.
  

Congressional diary: Clinton-Obama isn't the only race today

It's Election Day... and Clinton-Obama are not the only races on the ballot today. In fact, there is a whole series of competitive congressional primaries that we will be following more or less closely, starting with statewide races in both North Carolina and Indiana.

In North Carolina, the most high-profile election opposes Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore for the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination. Perdue, the Lieutenant Governor, started with a significant lead that Richard Moore was never able to overtake despite running increasingly negative ads. The winner of the primary will be favored in the general though the fall campaign would become very competitive if the GOP nominates Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

Also in North Carolina, Democrats will decide who -- Kay Hagan or Jim Neal -- will face Elizabeth Dole in the fall. Neither candidate is first-tier or well-known, as the DCCC suffered from a rare series of recruitment failures here. On paper, Hagan should be the strongest in the general though polls taken so far put the two Democrats roughly at the same level against Dole; Neal is also reputed to be much more progressive than Hagan, though his career as an investment banker undermine those credentials.

Finally, the last competitive statewide race is Indiana's gubernatorial race, where two Democrats are facing off to face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels in the general: architect Jim Schellinger and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson. The former was favored by the establishment and raised much more money, but Thompson appears to have transformed higher name recognition into a lead in the polls. There is no sign that either would be particularly stronger in the general.

In non-May 6th congressional news, all eyes are of course on the special election in MS-01 -- just in a week! The DCCC has dumped $100,000 again, bringing its total to $1,4 million! This is an awfully high tab for a race that the Democrat was so close to winning in the first round on April 22nd. Those 400 votes are forcing the Democratic party to spend more than a million dollars to live up to the first round's potential. It's also forcing them to defend themselves against attempts to nationalize the election by linking Childers to Barack Obama.

Last week, Childers actually denied having been endorsed by Obama (a strange claim to make considering the contrary evidence). That was enough for Republican candidate Greg Davis to produce another ad (watch it here), hitting Childers for lying about not receiving Obama's endorsement. What's so strange about this ad (like the previous ones) is that it takes Obama to be so toxic that it doesn't even bother making any attacks on the Illinois Senator; there is even a montage of Obama's website and talk of Childers there, as if we were talking about the website of Fidel Castro or even -- gasp -- of Ted Kennedy. I remain unconvinced that Obama is defined enough to be this much of a drag even in this staunchly conservative a district. He might be unpopular but that does not necessarily lead to toxicity.

Finally, the University of New Hampshire released a wave of polls yesterday:

• In the Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen is -- as always -- running ahead of Sununu, 52% to 40%. That's a 5% tightening since the last UNH poll but that doesn't obscure the fact that it's bad news for an incumbent to be under 50% -- let alone to trail by double-digits.

• In NH-01, however, Democratic Rep. Shea Porter is in trouble. She won her race in one of the most unexpected upsets in 2006, and the incumbent she beat, Jeb Bradley, is back for a rematch... and leads her 45% to 39%. She even struggles against another Republican, John Stephen 43% to 35%.
  

• However, Democrats are in better shape in NH-02, which they also picked-up in 2006. Rep. Hordes is leading both his challengers by close to 30%.

NH-01 is one of the 11 Democratic seats I have listed as a toss-up in my latest ratings. This first poll of the race confirms that assessment; Democrats are going to need to recapture their 2006 momentum (NH was probably the state that colored itself blue the most dramatically) to keep this seat.

Down-the-ballot: As we wait for the specials, movement in Nevada

Four days from the special election in LA-06 and as the heat is rising in the MS-01 runoff, the congressional committees are continuing to closely monitor developments. The DCCC reported small expenditures over the week-end, including some for field organizing. Turnout is even more important in special elections than in regular contests, and Democrats have had a clear edge in that metric for months now. The nationalization of the MS-01 race could increase Republican energy, but it could also motivate the districts' Democrats; which of these looks to be more true on May 13th will serve as an early clue as to whether Republicans can energize their base with the threat of an Obama presidency.

For now, we can only be amazed at the size of the DCCC's expenses in these upcoming contests. In a pair of very heavily Republican Southern seats, the DCCC has spent more than $1,1 million. This is quite a significant amount, only possible because of the committee's financial dominance, which allows them to take risks they might otherwise not have taken. The DCCC would have been extremely unlikely to devote this level of attention and resources in previous cycle when resources were scarce. Not to mention that the DCCC forced the NRCC to respond despite the fact that the GOP barely has enough money to defend seats that on paper should be even more endangered than LA-06 and MS-01.

Meanwhile, there is movement in NV-03, which is one of the most vulnerable non-open seats this year. Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then, with January's contested caucuses leading to many new Dem registrants (Politico profiles this battleground district here). Boosted by their new-found edge in the district, Democrats believe they had recruited a strong candidate, local prosecutor Robert Daskas. But the highly-touted Daskas withdrew today, citing familial reasons... and leaving Democrats without a candidate.

But the DCCC might already have a candidate to replace Daskas with: Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. As far as I remember from the 2006 campaign, Titus is a progressive Democrat; but her campaign did not live up to its potential then, as she failed to capitalize on scandals involving eventual winner Gibbons. But there is no question that Titus jumping in the race would keep a bright spotlight on the race and keep Porter very much endangered. An added reason Democrats want to defeat Porter this fall is that the representative looks to be one of the most threatening potential challengers to Harry Reid in 2010.

Finally, some news from Indiana's race for governor. The fact that all pollsters are now working in Indiana to survey the presidential primary means that a number of polls of the gubernatorial contest are also being released. The Democratic primary is also being held on May 6th, and underfunded Jill Long Thompson appears to have an edge against architect Jim Schellinger, despite the latter's heavy establishment supporter. In the general election, three surveys show very tight results:

• Research 2000 finds incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels to be tied with Thompson at 45% and edging out Schellinger 45% to 44%.
• The Mark Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows Daniels up 1% against both Democrats.
• The Indianapolis Star has Thompson edging out Daniels 44% to 43%, but the incumbent prevails over Schellinger 45% to 41%.

There are very few competitive gubernatorial races this year so Indiana's is sure to be watched very closely. Among other reasons to follow this race: With Indiana's state House and Senate split between Democrats and Republicans, the governor's mansion could be essential in determining who benefits most in the next round of redistricting.

Governor rankings: Top four races get more interesting

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those 5 races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

The retirement of Gov. Blunt in Missouri, the heated Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the candidacy of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, and Dino Rossi's attempts to rouse passions in Washington all guarantee that these 4 states will remain competitive to November and keep things interesting on the gubernatorial front. And since both parties control 2 of these 4 most contested governorships, Republicans can at least be relieved that things look more even-handed here than in the Senate and the House.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in December, are available here.

Toss-up (2 R, 1 D)

1. Missouri (Open)

Missouri's gubernatorial race made a lot of news comparatively to other gubernatorial races. The showdown between Republican Gov. Blunt and Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon had started as early as 2004, and the incumbent's growing unpopularity had given the early lead to Nixon. But Blunt unexpectedly announced his retirement in late January.

Republicans hurried to find a nominee and they will now have to decide between two strong candidates, congressman Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Either would keep the race competitive but Nixon undoubtedly has a head start given that he has been preparing his campaign for so long -- and that the state's voters have turned sour on their Republican administration.

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous ranking: 4)

Republican at the federal level, North Carolina remains blue at the state level, and Democrats looked favored to keep the governor's mansion next year with two strong candidates -- Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- battling for the Democratic nomination. But two factors have made the race more competitive.

(1) The Democratic primary is staying very competitive and now going negative, with Moore needing to shake up the race to contest Perdue's early edge. (2) Republicans got a potentially very competitive candidate in the race with with the entry of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Polls show McCrory in toss-ups against both Perdue and Moore, with the Democrats holding the slightest of edges.

The GOP primary is also contested, however, and it remains unclear who will emerge to claim the party's nod. We will now more about the state of play in North Carolina after the May 6th primary.

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous ranking: 2)

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is certainly unpopular and vulnerable, but it is difficult to precisely assess the general election before Democrats settle their nomination race on May 6th. Architect Jim Schellinger has been the establishment's favored candidate and has far outraised his opposition, but former Rep. Jill Long Thompson could emerge the winner due to higher name recognition. The Indianapolis Star reports that Schellinger's campaign has been a disappointment while Thompson has been very active and that his fundraising edge could be drowned amidst the presidential race if Clinton and Obama spend millions in ads here in the next few weeks.

Lean Retention (2 D)

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous ranking: 3)

The 2004 campaign never really stopped in Washington, where Republican Dino Rossi lost by 129 votes on the third count after leading the first two ballot counts. Christine Gregoire started off a controversial term and has done her best to overcome the partisan rancor of her first election. Rossi announced his second gubernatorial candidacy in late 2007, and he has been campaigning hard since then, hoping to rouse the passions of 2004, bringing up the recount on the trail to undermine the legitimacy of Gregoire's incumbency. This race will be tight (and bitter) to the end but Gregoire has been able to somewhat regain her footing over the past few years and built some good will which give her a slight edge to start with.

Check the full rankings with all 11 races here.

Sunday polls: Trying to find interesting governor races

• New Mexico stays close

SUSA released a poll from New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes today. Clinton runs ahead of Obama, and only John McCain manages to win a match-up against her:

• McCain leads Clinton 48% to 45%. But Clinton leads Giuliani 48% to 44%, Romney 52% to 40%, and Huckabee 53% to 39%.
• Obama, on the other hand, is far behind Giuliani (49% to 41%) and McCain (50% to 40%). He is ahead of Romney 49% to 41% and Huckabee, 50% to 38%.

These numbers represent a small improvement for Clinton on last month's numbers when she was narrowly trailing Giuliani. They also contradict my theory that Hillary tends to run stronger than Obama in the Northeast and in the South, and Obama tends to run stronger in the Southwest. Clearly, New Mexico will be as closely fought as 2000 (when Gore won by 300 votes) and 2004 (when Bush won by 6000 votes).

• Indiana Governor in trouble

With Louisiana and Kentucky resolving their governor elections last month, there are not that many competitive gubernatorial contests coming up in the next few months -- only Missouri, Indiana and Washington are ranked competitive in my latest governor rankings. A new poll out today shows that Governor Daniels of Indiana is in big trouble, tied with his two lesser-known challengers, and way under the 50% threshold.

Former congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger both get 44% of the vote, and Daniels gets 43% against both challengers -- a bad omen to be led this far out of Election Day. Daniels approval rating stands at 40%. There was a lot of noise about this race earlier in the year and last year, and Democrats pick-ed 3 House seats in Indiana alone last year, demonstrating the unpopularity of the state GOP. But Republicans were arguing that Daniels had recovered some support and was less of a drag, though that apparently is not the case at all.