New Hampshire polls: Has Sununu made a comeback?

• New Hampshire: Competitive in both parties

Gallup just released its latest poll from New Hampshire, and both parties are moving into toss-ups. Last month's Gallup poll had Clinton and Romney up in double-digits, now:

• Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama both get 32% -- with Edwards hovering behind at 18%.
• Among the GOP, Romney is now only leading 34% to 27%, while Giuliani (who had a chance to win this thing only 10 days ago) has now collapsed at 11%. Huck and Ron Paul get 9%.

The tie in the Democratic race has now become a common story -- but I am still trying to understand what is going on in the Republican race: Only one poll for now has shown McCain tying Romney in the state, but all NH polls of late have Romney's lead that was clearly double-digit 10 days ago dramatically cut, and McCain on the rise -- this movement is coinciding with Rudy's fall, which implies that McCain is drawing his votes from Giuliani.

This also makes what was last week the most likely scenario (Huck wins IA, and Romney holds on to win NH) increasingly unlikely, as McCain could probably overtake Mitt if things go badly for him in Iowa. And what a story that would be: Romney failing to win either of the early states (and probably being eliminated for good), and McCain suddenly in the running. We're almost there -- and you bet Giuliani would love that. McCain-Huckabee in IA and NH would mean a muddied race, and his big-state strategy would suddenly make sense again.

• NH-Sen: Sununu is now ahead?!

As far as Senate polls go, this one is a shocker. For months, any poll of the New Hampshire Senate race has shown Jeanne Shaheen with a double-digit lead -- which sometimes got up to 20+. Some polls did have high single-digits, but Shaheen soon picked up again after that. And now we get a new ARG poll :

• Incumbent GOP Sen. Sununu is ahead 52% to 41% -- a rather dramatic swing in his favor.
• Democrats are much less aligned behind Shaheen (78%) than GOPers behind Sununu (93%), and the undeclared break in favor of the Republican.

One possible explanation is that Shaheen was on the news in the past two weeks... after her husband made those comments about Obama's drug use. Possible. If that it is, it will probably not last. NH is currently ranked number 2 of my Senate Rankings, and this poll is such an outlier from everything we have seen that it is impossible to take it into account to change the assessment of the race. But it goes without saying that we'll keep a close on the next few New Hampshire Senate polls -- if Sununu is tied or ahead, we have a race in our hand. Which would be a huge blow for Democrats.