12.21.2007

New Hampshire polls: Has Sununu made a comeback?

  • New Hampshire: Competitive in both parties
Gallup just released its latest poll from New Hampshire, and both parties are moving into toss-ups. Last month's Gallup poll had Clinton and Romney up in double-digits, now:

  • Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama both get 32% -- with Edwards hovering behind at 18%.
  • Among the GOP, Romney is now only leading 34% to 27%, while Giuliani (who had a chance to win this thing only 10 days ago) has now collapsed at 11%. Huck and Ron Paul get 9%.
The tie in the Democratic race has now become a common story -- but I am still trying to understand what is going on in the Republican race: Only one poll for now has shown McCain tying Romney in the state, but all NH polls of late have Romney's lead that was clearly double-digit 10 days ago dramatically cut, and McCain on the rise -- this movement is coinciding with Rudy's fall, which implies that McCain is drawing his votes from Giuliani.

This also makes what was last week the most likely scenario (Huck wins IA, and Romney holds on to win NH) increasingly unlikely, as McCain could probably overtake Mitt if things go badly for him in Iowa. And what a story that would be: Romney failing to win either of the early states (and probably being eliminated for good), and McCain suddenly in the running. We're almost there -- and you bet Giuliani would love that. McCain-Huckabee in IA and NH would mean a muddied race, and his big-state strategy would suddenly make sense again.

  • NH-Sen: Sununu is now ahead?!
As far as Senate polls go, this one is a shocker. For months, any poll of the New Hampshire Senate race has shown Jeanne Shaheen with a double-digit lead -- which sometimes got up to 20+. Some polls did have high single-digits, but Shaheen soon picked up again after that. And now we get a new ARG poll :

  • Incumbent GOP Sen. Sununu is ahead 52% to 41% -- a rather dramatic swing in his favor.
  • Democrats are much less aligned behind Shaheen (78%) than GOPers behind Sununu (93%), and the undeclared break in favor of the Republican.
One possible explanation is that Shaheen was on the news in the past two weeks... after her husband made those comments about Obama's drug use. Possible. If that it is, it will probably not last. NH is currently ranked number 2 of my Senate Rankings, and this poll is such an outlier from everything we have seen that it is impossible to take it into account to change the assessment of the race. But it goes without saying that we'll keep a close on the next few New Hampshire Senate polls -- if Sununu is tied or ahead, we have a race in our hand. Which would be a huge blow for Democrats.

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6 Comments:

  • Re Shaheen v. Sununu: My guess is that your guess is correct. It's blow-back from l'affaire Billy. Right now, there are a number of Obama supporters marching around, huffing and puffing about how 'Jeannie must have known'.

    Well, if you knew the players, you'd know that's not necessarily true. She's been doing some reaching out over the last week or so, and as time passes and there are other 60-second sensations to occupy everyone's mind, this will fade.

    The problem is that you're dealing with 2 or 3 different constituencies. The Demos will not let it change their mindset, but the independents, who have been unhappy with GOP performance in general and with Sununu as an enabler, may now link Shaheen with HRC, who is quite unpopular in those circles. That linkage is not so likely to fade. For disaffected Republicans, the linkage may be unbreakable.

    By Anonymous Big Blue, At 21 December, 2007 12:09  

  • I think this offers a dangerous and telling look at the potential "backlash" issue tied to Hillary Clinton. If her antics are threatening Shaheen, it is VERY likely that it will threaten democrats in other close races. Shaheen had a WIDE margin. Imagine the fallout had it been much closer to start?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 21 December, 2007 12:41  

  • Watch out for my guy Jay Buckey, who's also running for the democratic nomination for this seat -- I've been around the state with him and he's really been opening some eyes with a fresh perspective and a bit of old-fashioned telling truth-to-power.

    By Blogger Gavin Brown, At 21 December, 2007 13:36  

  • Clinton deserves to lose the nomination because of this crap.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 21 December, 2007 15:52  

  • This poll is probably accurate. Also, this issue will pass and become a non-issue next November. Sununu will be in for the fight of his life.

    By Anonymous Southern Slav, At 21 December, 2007 17:15  

  • This is an eye-opener for all of us.
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    soniya
    Wide Circles represents relevant, distributed, highly targeted and efficient internet word of mouth marketing using entertaining or informative messages that are designed to be passed along in an exponential fashion using social network mediums such as blogs, forums, wikis and so on.
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    By Blogger soniya, At 04 June, 2008 07:10  

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