Democrats land two new House candidates... and look ahead to 2010!

Exciting news for House Democrats on this Thursday morning, as they are putting two new House seats in play by recruiting some strong challengers. The first is the Alaska at large seat, held by Don Young. The entire Alaska congressional delegation has been hit by strong allegations of unethical misconduct and is under investigation, so that Democrats smell blood and want to take advantage of the GOP's troubles.

Ethan Berkowitz, the state's House Minority Leader from 1999 to 2006, has announced his bid to take on Young. Berkowitz lost a race for lieutenant governor in 2006, and Democrats believe he could cause real trouble for Young who only got 56% in his last race, and that was before the allegations against him really picked up. Berkowitz will have a primary fight, however, as former state party chair Jake Metcalfe and Diane Benson, Young's 2006 opponent, are already in the race.

And in Florida, Democrats are moving in on Rep. Tom Feeney, who is under investagation also for his links to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Dems have been pressuring Feeney for a while, hoping to force a retirement by running ads against him early, and they now have a candidate they believe can take Feeney down: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. The DCCC alluded to a poll taken showing the race to be very competitive, but did not release the numbers (which is really cheap... what is the point of touting such a poll if we cannot confirm it?).

Finally, Democrats are very excited about a Rasmussen poll of... a 2010 Senate race. It shows John McCain would have trouble winning re-election in Arizona if Democrats nominate Governor Napolitano to run against him. McCain trails her by only 1% (46-45). A similar poll taken a few months ago had McCain much further down. This is naturally completly meaningless, since who knows what the political situation will be in 2010, but could numbers like this push McCain to retire if he fails in his presidential bid? In more interesting numbers, the poll also shows Republicans favored to win the state in the presidential election:

• Rudy Giuliani defeats Hillary Clinton 48% to 39%.
• McCain wins 52% to 40%. The fact that he does only marginally better than Giuliani is certainly a sign of weakness of McCain... certainly confirmed by the new ARG primary poll from Arizona in which McCain comes in first, but with a very pale 26%.
  

Democrats pressing their advantage in the House

The GOP has to face the daunting prospect of three open seats to defend in Democratic-trending Illinois: IL-11, IL-14, and IL-18. A week ago, Republicans got some welcome news when Dennis Hastert dismissed insistent speculation he would resign and provoke a special election. But today, it was Democrats who were celebrating a major recruitment coup: They convinced Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in the race in IL-11. This is rather unexpected given how recently Rep. Weller announced he would retire and open up the seat. Also, Halvorson was appearing to be leaning against the run, as she had wondered out loud why be one among 435 when she had a shot to be the first female president of the Illinois Senate.

Republicans are hoping that they can entice a state senator of their own, Christine Radogno, with a moderate reputation. That would help them play defense, but there does seem to be a pattern of Republicans falling behind in their open seats. This is especially stunning in OH-15, where so many potential Republican candidates have passed on at this race one has to wonder whether the GOP will even try putting up a fight there.

In other House news, Democrats are clearly preparing to exploit Bush's veto of the children health-care bill (SCHIP). A few weeks after the GOP started running a radio ad against the who's who of targeted House Dems, also on SCHIP, the DCCC is up on air against 8 Republican incumbents. The list says a lot about which districts Democrats are planning to target, as all Republicans are seating in very vulnerable districts: Steve Chabot (OH-01), Thelma Drake (VA-02), Tom Feeney (FL-24), Sam Graves (MO-06), Joe Knollenberg (MI-09), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Jim Saxton (NJ-03) and Tim Walberg (MI-07).

The choice to go after Feeney is particularly meaningful. Democrats are trying to push Feeney towards retirement, hoping that the prospect of a difficult re-election race scares him away from running. FL-24 is a swing district, and an open seat would be ripe for pick-up for Democrats. Here is the text of the ad running against Feeney:

Did you know Congressman Feeney gets health care at taxpayers' expense, but Feeney and Bush are blocking health care for 10 million uninsured children? Tell Tom Feeney to put families first.

Meanwhile, Larry Craig is still in the Senate and everyone is still waiting for Kerrey to make up his mind...